PERT

I.K. Gunarta
Department of Industrial Engineering
ITS

Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

The technique is based on the

assumption that an activitys duration
follows a probability distribution
instead of being a single value.
The probabilistic information about the
activities is translated into probabilistic
information about the project.

PERT
Three time estimates are required to
compute the parameters of an activitys
duration distribution:
pessimistic time (tp ) - the time the activity would
take if things did not go well
most likely time (tm ) - the consensus best estimate
of the activitys duration
optimistic time (to ) - the time the activity would
take if things did go well

. . . more
5

PERT
From these three time estimates about
an activity, two probability distribution
parameters are calculated: the mean
(te ) and the variance (Vt ).
te = ( to + 4tm + tp ) / 6
Vt = [ ( tp - to ) / 6 ] 2
6

Steps in PERT Analysis

Draw the network.
Analyze the paths through the network
and find the critical path.
The length of the critical path is the
mean of the project duration
probability distribution which is
assumed to be normal.
. . . more
7

Steps in PERT Analysis

The standard deviation of the project
duration probability distribution is
computed by adding the variances of
the critical activities (all of the activities
that make up the critical path) and
taking the square root of that sum
Probability computations can now be
made using the normal distribution
table.
8

Contoh
Aktivitas

Te

[(b a)/6]2

17

29

47

30

25

12

24

13

16

19

28

20

13

16

19

16

14

Berapa probabilitas proyek selesai dalam waktu kurang dari 67 hari?

Network
B

43

43

59

30 13

43

43 16

59

30

30

59

64

30

30

59

64

50

50

56

33 20

53

53

59

30

10

Possible Project Duration

Te = 64

Ts = 67

11

Solusi
V Path = VA + VB + VD + VF
V Path = 25 + 9 + 1 + 1

path = 6
Z = (67 64)/
= + 0.5
P = 0.69

12

PERT Example
Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.)
A
-4
6
8
B
-1
4.5
5
C
A
3
3
3
D
A
4
5
6
E
A
0.5
1
1.5
F
B,C
3
4
5
G
B,C
1
1.5
5
H
E,F
5
6
7
I
E,F
2
5
8
J
D,H
2.5
2.75
4.5
K
G,I
3
5
7
13

PERT Example
ACTIVITY

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K

PREDECESSOR OPTIMISTIC
TIME
A
A
A
B, C
B, C
E, F
E, F
D, H
G, I

4
1
3
4
0,5
3
1
5
2
2,5
3

MOST
LIKELY
TIME
6
4,5
3
5
1
4
1,5
6
5
2,75
5

PESSIMISTIC
TIME
8
5
3
6
1,5
5
5
7
8
4,5
7

Probability the project will be completed within 24 days?

14

PERT Example
PERT Network
D

C
B

I
F

G
15

PERT Example
Activity Expected Time and Variance
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K

Expected Time
6
4
3
5
1
4
2
6
5
3
5

Variance
4/9
4/9
0
1/9
1/36
1/9
4/9
1/9
1
1/9
4/9

16

PERT Example
Earliest/Latest Times
Activity ES
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K

0
0
6
6
6
9
9
13
13
19
18

EF
6
4
9
11
7
13
11
19
18
22
23

LS
0
5
6
15
12
9
16
14
13
20
18

LF

Slack
6
9
9
20
13
13
18
20
18
23
23

0 *critical
5
0*
9
6
0*
7
1
0*
1
0*

17

PERT Example
Probability the project will be completed
within 24 hours
Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK
= 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9
= 2
path = 1.414
z = (24 - 23)/ = (24-23)/1.414 = .71
18

PERT Example
Probability the project will be completed
within 24 hours

.2612
.5000

23 24

From the Standard Normal Distribution

table:
P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612
19