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Probability

1. State and explain the axioms that


define probability function . Prove
addition theorem on probability. i.e.,
P(

E1 E 2 ) =P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) - P (

E 1 E2

).

A: Axiomatic Approach to Probability: Let


S is finite sample space. A real valued
function P
From power set of S into R is called
probability function if
(1) P (A) 0 A S;
(2) P(S) = 1, P ( ) = 0;

(3) P (A B) = P (A) + P (B) if A B =

Here the image of A w.r.t. P denoted by P (A)


is
Called probability of A.
Theorem: Addition Theorem on Probability. If

E1 ,

E2 are two events in a sample

P(

E1 E 2 ) = P ( E1 ) +[ E2 ( E1 E 2 ) ]

P(

E1 E 2 ) = P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 )P ( E1 E2 ) .

2. A, B, C are three horse in a race. The


probability of A to win the race is twice
that of B and probability of B is twice
that of C. what are the probabilities of
A , B and C to win the race ?
Sol. Let A, B, C be the events that the horses
A, B, C wins the race respectively.
Given P (A) = 2P (B), P (B) = 2P(C)
P (A) = 2P (B) =2[2P(C)] = 4P(C)
Since the horses A, B and C run the race,
ABC = S and A, B, C are mutually disjoint
P (A B C) = P (A) + P (B) + P(C)
P(S) = 4p(C) +2p(C) + P(C) =1
7P(C) =1

1
7

P(C) =

space S,
Then P (

P (B) = 2P(C)

E1 E 2 ) =

=2[

P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 )P ( E1 E2 ) .

P (B) =
Proof:
Case 1:
Suppose that

E1 E2 ) =

(
P(

E1

E2

P (A) = 4P(C)
=4[
P (A) =

=P(

E1 ) + P ( E2 )-0

=P(

E1 ) + P ( E2 ) - P (

P (A) =

E1 E2 ).

( E1 E2 )

From Venn diagram

E1 E 2 ) =P [ E1 ( E2E 1) ]
=P(

1
7 ]
4
7

4
7 ,

P (B) =

4
7 ,

P (C) =

4
7

Case 2:
Suppose that

P(

2
7

E1 E 2 ) =P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) by

axioms of union

1
7 ]

Probability that horse A loses in the race


=P(A)
=1-P (A)
=1 -

E1 ) + P ( E2E 1
=

(
E2E 1 =[ E2( E1 E 2 ) ]

4
7

3
.
7

3.The probabilities of three events A,B,C are


such that P (A) =

o . 3 , P ( B )=0 . 4 , P ( c )=0 .8 ,

Probability
P ( A B ) =0 .08 , P (A C ) = 0 . 28 ,
P( A BC )=0 . 09 , and P (A B
C) 0 .75 . S.T
P (B C ) lies in the interval [0.23,
0.48].

o .3 , P ( B )=0.4, P ( c )=0.8,

Sol: P (A) =

P ( A B ) =0.08 ,
P (A

C ) = 0.28,

4.A, B, C are aiming to shoot a balloon. A


will succeed 4 times out of 5 attempts.
The chance
of B to shoot the balloon is 3 out of 4
and that of C is 2 out of 3. If three aim
the balloon
Simultaneously, then find the
probability that at least two of them hit
the balloon.
Sol: Let A, B, C be the events that the
shooters A, B, C succeed in shooting the
balloon.

P( A BC )=0.09 ,
and P (A

Given that P (A) =

B C) 0.75 .

2
3

We know that

P( A B C)=P(A )+ P ( B ) + P ( c )P ( A B )P(B C)
P( A C)+ P( A B C)

Clearly A, B, C are independent events.


Probability that at least two of them hit the
balloon

P ( A B C )+ P ( A B C ) +

P ( s )=P( A B C)0

o .3+0.4 +, 0.80.080.28P ( B C )+ 0.09 1


0.75

P( A BC )
=

0.75

1.23P ( BC ) 1

1.231.23P ( B C ) 11.23
P ( B C ) 0.23

0.48

P ( B C ) 0.23

P (B C ) lies in the interval [0.23,


0.48].

P( A BC )

P (A) P (B) P (C) + P (A) P (B) P (C)

+ P (A) P (B) P (C) + P (A) P (B) P (C)

0.75 1.23

-0.48

4
3
5 , P (B) = 4 , P (C) =

4 3
2 4
3 2
. . 1 + . 1 .
5 4
3 5
4 3

( ) ( )
4 3 2 4 3 2
+( 1 ). . + . .
5 4 3 5 4 3

4 3 1 4 1 2 1 3 2 4 3 2
. .
+ .
. +
. . + . .
5 4 3 5 4 3 5 4 3 5 4 3

12 8 6 24
50
+ + +
=5/6.
=
60 60 60 60
60

() () ()

5. In a shooting test the probability of A,


B, C hitting the targets are

1 2 3
, ,
2 3 4

respectively. It all of them fire at the


same target. Find the probability that
i) Only one of them hits the target.
ii) At least one of them hits the target.
Sol. The probabilities that A, B, C hitting the
targets are denoted by
P (A) =

1
1
A ) = 1- P (A) =

P
(
2
2

Probability
2
P (B) = 3
3
P (C) = 4

1
P ( B ) = 1- P (B) = 3
P(

C ) =1- P (C) =

1
P ( A B C )= ,
4

1
4

Clearly A, B, C are independent events.


Probability that only one of them hit the
target
=

6. A, B, C are three independent events of


an experiment such that

P ( A B C )+ P ( A B C )

1
P ( A B C )= , P( A B C) =1/4 then
8
find
P (A)

+ P( A B C)
= P (A) P ( B ) P ( C ) + P ( A ) P (B) P (

C )
+ P ( A ) P ( B ) P (C)

1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 3
. . + . . + . .
2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4

P (B)

P (C).

Sol: given that A, B, C are independent events


and

1
1
P ( A B C )= P ( A ) P ( B ) P ( C )=
4
4

1
P ( A B C )=
8

1
8

1
P ( A ) P ( B ) P (C ) 4

=
P ( A ) P ( B ) P (C ) 1
4

1+2+3
=
24
6
24

1
.
4

P( A)
=1
1P( A)

P ( A )=1P ( A )

2 P ( A )=1
ii) Probability that at least one of them hits
the target
= 1 Probability that none of them hits the
target.
=1- P (A '

B '

=1- P (A) P (B) P(C)


=1-

1 1 1
. .
2 3 4

=1-

1 23
= .
24 24

P ( A ) P ( B ) P ( C )=

1
P( A B C) =1/4 P ( A ) P ( B ) P ( C )=
4

1 2 3
= 24 + 24 + 24

C)

1
1
P ( A ) = P ( A ' )=
2
2
1
P ( A ) P ( B ) P (C ) 4

=
P ( A ) P ( B ) P (C ) 1
8

P(B)
1
= .
1P(B) 2

2 P ( B )=1P ( B )

P ( A )=1P( A)

Probability
3 P ( B ) =1
1
P ( B )= .
3

P ( B )=

1 2
1
. . P (C)=
2 3
4

Probability of drawing a black ball from the 2nd


bag is

1
4

B
4
)
=
E2
7

P(

1 3
P ( C )= .
4 1

3
P (C )=1P ( C ) =14
P (A) =

2
3

P ( A ) P ( B ) P ( C )=

From ,

B
3
)
=
E1
7

P(

3
4

By total probability theorem,


P( B )=P(

1
4

B
E1 ). P (
E
E 1 ) + P ( 2 ). P (

B
E2 )

1
1
1
,
P
(B)
=
,
P
(C)
=
2
3
4

1 3 2 4
. + .
3 7 3 7

3+ 8
21

11
.
21

8. State and prove Bayes theorem.


7. Define conditional probability. There
are 3 black and 4 white balls in one
bag; 4 black and 3 white balls in the
second bag. A die is rolled and the first
bag is selected if it is 1 or 3, and
second bag for the rest. Find the
probability of drawing a black ball from
the selected bag.
Sol: conditional probability: if A, B are two
events in a sample space S and P (A)

given by A. it is denoted by P(

P(

B
A )

n( A B) P( A B)
B
=
)
=
A
n(A )
P(A )

Let E1 ,

E2 be the events of selecting first

and second bags respectively


Let B be the event of drawing a black ball from
the first bag now P (

P(

E2

2 1
E1 ) = =
6 3

4 2
) = 6=3

P(

E1 ) 0 for i=1, 2, 3 n and A is any

event with
P (A)

0, then

A
(
)
E
E
=
( A ) P(E ) P A

(E )
P (Ek )P

i=1

Proof: given that

E1 , E2 , E 3 ..

En are

mutually exclusive and exhaustive events in a


sample space S.

, E1 E 2 E3 ..

En =S
n

Ei=S
i=1

Given A is any event of a random experiment,


then
Since A=A

Probability of drawing a black ball from the first


bag is

En are mutually

exclusive and exhaustive events in a sample


space S such that

0,then the probability of B after the event A has


occurred is called conditional probability of B

E1 , E2 , E 3 ..

Sol: if

Probability
Sol: given

A= A E i
i=1

A=

Ei

i=1

Applying p on both sides we get

Bo
x
I
II
III

whi
te
1
2
4

Let

B 1 , B2 , B3 be the events of selecting

tot
al
6
4
12

3
1
3

1
B 1 ) = P ( B 2 ) =P ( B 3 ) =
3

Let R be the event of drawing a red ball.

( Ei A)

P(

i=1

P ( Ei ) P
i=1

( EA )

..

the probability that the


ball boxII

for k=1, 2, 3.
And also by using conditional
Probability: P

R
R
= 3 =1 , P (
= 1 ,P(
B1
B2
6 2
4

R
3 1

= .
B3 = 12 4

[By multiplication theorem]

P(A) =

red

the boxes I, II, III respectively.


P(

P ( A ) =P

bla
ck
2
1
5

Ek P( E k A)
=
.
A
P(A)

( )

And w. k. t

A
P ( Ek A =P ( E k ) P E
k

( )

B2
=
R

1 1
1
1
.
3 4
4
4 1
=
= =
= 1 1 1 1
2+ 1+ 1 4 4
+ +
4
4
3 2 4 4

From

R
B2

( )
R
R
R
P(B )P
+P(B )P
+P (B ) P
(B )
(B )
(B )
P(B2 )P

[By multiplication theorem]

A
(
E )
E
=
( A ) P( E ) P A

(E )

P(

P (Ek )P

for

i=1

i=1, 2, 3

9. Three boxes numbered I,II,III contain 1


white ,2 black and 3 red balls; 2 white,
1 black and 1 red ball;4 white , 5 black
and 3 red balls. one box is randomly
selected and a ball is drawn from it. If
the ball is red then find the probability
that it is from box II.

SAQ
10.If two numbers are selected randomly
from 20 consecutive natural numbers,
find the probability that the sum of the
two numbers is (i) an even number (ii)
an add number.
Sol: out of 20 consecutive natural numbers
we select 2 numbers in

20C =
2

20C ways

20 19
= 190
2 1

Probability
n ( s )=190
In 20 consecutive natural numbers; 10 are
even numbers and 10 are odd numbers
We know that
even +even =even (or ) odd + odd
=even

10C +10C =
2

10 9 10 9
+
=45+ 45=90
2 1 2 1

Then A will win in 1st or 3rd or 5th ..Chances.


(i)The probability of A will win the game is
P (A) =
P (A) =

p+q p+q p+

p
=
=
1q2

n (A)=90

required probability P ( A )=

p+qqp+ qqqqp+

1
6

1
62
6
=
.
=
2
2
2
6 6 5 11
5
1( )
6

n( A) 90
9
=
= .
(
)
190
19
ns

G.P series
a=p and r=

q2

(ii)P (getting sum of two numbers are odd)


=1-P (getting sum of two numbers are even)

S =

9 10
=1- 19 = 19

11.A speaks truth in 75% of the cases and


B in 80% of the cases. What is the
probability that their statements about
an incident do not match.
Sol: let A and B be the events that the
persons A, B respectively to speak truth
about an incident.

75 3
1
Given that P ( A ) = 100 = 4 P ( A ) = 4 .
P( B )=

80 4
1
= P ( B )= .
100 5
5

P (A) =1-P (

A )

Clearly A, B are independent events.


Now probability that their statements about
an incident do not match
P (A

B P ( A B )

a
p
=
1r 1q 2
(ii) The probability of B will win the game
is=1-P (A) =1-

6
5
= .
11 11

13.If A, B, C are three events in a sample


space s, then S.T P (A B C)
P (A) +

P ( B ) + P ( C ) P ( A B ) P (B C ) -

P (A C ) +
Sol: P (A

P( A BC )

B C =P[ A ( B C ) ]

A
P ( A ) P ( B )+ P ) P (B)

By Additional theorem

3 1 1 4 7
. + . =
4 5 4 5 20

(B) P (A B

12.Two people A and B are rolling a die on


the condition that the person who gets
3 will win the game. if A starts the
game, then fined the probability of A
and B respectively to win the game.
Sol:
Let P be the event of getting 3 on a die=

1
6
q be the event of not getting 3 on a die=

1 5
1 =
6 6
A, B be the events that A, B will win the
game respectively.

P (A B = P (A) + P

=P (A) + P (B

C P [ A ( B C ) ]

=P (A) + P (B) + P (C) P (B C

P [ ( A B ) ( A C ) ]
=P (A) + P (B) + P (C) P (B

- P (A BP ( A C ) + P( A B A C)

Probability
P (A B C =P (A) + P (B) + P (C)
P (B

- P (A

BP ( A C ) + P ( A B C ) .

14. The probability that Australia wins a


match against India in a cricket game
is given to be 1/3.if India and Australia
play 3 matches, what is the probability
that (1) Australia will loose all the three
matches? (ii) Australia will win at least
one match?
Sol: let E be the event of Australia win
against India then P (E) =

1
1 2
P ( E )=1P ( E )=1 =
3
3 3
(i)

Probability that Australia will loose all

Proof: lets be the sample space. And A, B


are two events by definition of conditional
probability;
The probability of the event B after the event
A has occurred is called conditional
probability of B given by A and it is denoted
by P(B/A) and define

As

P ( A B ) =P ( A ) P

(ii)

2 2 2 8
. . =
3 3 3 27

Probability that Australia will win at


least one match=1-(Probability that
Australia will loose all the three
matches)

( BA )

And also The probability of the event A after


the event B has occurred is called conditional
probability of A given by B and it is denoted
by P(A/B) and define

As

the three matches= P ( E ) P ( E )


P( E )=

)
( BA )= P P(( A B
A)

)
( AB )= P (P(A B
B)

P ( A B ) =P

( BA ) P ( B )

From

P ( A B)= P ( A ) P

8 19
=1- 27 = 27 .

( BA ) P ( BA ) P ( B )

16.If A and B are independent events


with P(A)=0.6,P(B)=0.7 then

B)
B
ii) P (A B) iii) P ( A ) iv) P (A
compute I)P(A

B).
Sol: given that A, B are independent events
15.State and prove multiplication theorem.
Sol:
Statement: if

A , B are two events of a random experiment

then

Given P (A) =0.6; P (B) =0.7


i.

( BA ) P ( BA ) P ( B )

P(A

B)=

P ( A ) . P ( B ) =( 0.6 ) . ( 0.7 )=0.42

with P ( A ) >0, P ( B )> 0 then provethat


P ( A B)= P ( A ) P

P( A B)=P( A) P( B)

ii.

P (A B = P (A) + P (B) P (A

Probability
0.6+0.70.42=1.3042=0.88

iii.

B
( )
P
P ( A B )
B
P
=
=
A
P( A)

x + y=

6 y=56 x

P( A B )= P ( A B

17.A, B are two independent events such


that the probability of both the events
to occur is 1/6 and the probability of
both the events do not occur is
1/3.findP (A).
Sol: given that A, B are independent events

P ( A B ) =P ( A ) . P ( B ) =

Let P (A) =

1
6

xP ( B ) = y

1
then xy= 6 xy=1 .
6
1
1
given P ( A B ) = P( A B)=
3
3
1P ( A B )=

1
3

1
1 =P ( A B )
3
2
=P ( A B )
3
2
=P ( A )+ P ( B ) P ( A B )
3
2
1
=x+ y
3
6

x ( 56 x )=1

From

1P ( A B ) =10.88=0.12

then

5
6

6 x +6 y=5

( )

iv.

2 1
x + y= +
3 6

5 x6 x 2=1
2

6 x 5 x1=0
6 x 23 x2 x1=0
3 x ( 2 x1 )1(2 x1)=0
(3 x1) ( 2 x1 ) =0

1 1
1 1
x= P ( A )=
2 3
2 3

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