Statistics 25100

Assignment 1 Solutions (April 11, 2013)

1. Problem 1.15 of the textbook.
Solution.

10

By the basic principle of counting, there are 12
= 199584 ways to
5
5
choose 5 men and 5 women from the class.
For each such choice, denote by A, B, C, D, E and a, b, c, d, e the men
and women chosen, respectively. Pairing them off is equivalent to assigning different female partners (a, b, c, d, e) to A, B, C, D, E. Therefore the number of possible pairings is equal to the number of ordered
arrangements of a, b, c, d, e, which is 5! = 120.
In total, by the generalized basic principle of counting, there are 199584
120 = 23950080 possible results.
2. Theoretical exercise 1.20 of the textbook.
Solution.
Lets first put P
mi balls into the ith urn to meet the requirement. Now
remaining, and by Proposition 6.2 of the
there are n ri=1 mi balls
P


n ri=1 mi +r1
textbook, there are
ways to distribute them into the r
r1
P


n ri=1 mi +r1
urns. Therefore
is the answer.
r1
3. Problem 2.28 of the textbook.
Solution.
(a) The answer is

(53)+(63)+(83)
=
(5+6+8
)
3

86
969

0.0888.

568
= 240
0.2477.
969
(5+6+8
)
3
(c) Under the assumption of sampling with replacement, the probability of drawing 3 red balls is

(b) The answer is

555
(5+6+8)(5+6+8)(5+6+8)

125
6859

Similarly, the probability of drawing 3 blue balls and 3 green balls

6
216
8
512
are ( 5+6+8
)3 = 6859
and ( 5+6+8
)3 = 6859
, respectively.
Therefore the probability of drawing 3 balls of the same color is
125
6859

216
6859

+
1

512
6859

853
6859

0.1244

(d) Under the assumption of sampling with replacement, if each of

the three balls are of different colors, there are 3! = 6 possible kinds of color-order, namely rbg, rgb, bgr, brg, grb and
gbr. For each kind of color-order, there are 5 6 8 = 240
ways of drawing. Therefore, there are 6 240 = 1440 ways
of drawing three balls of different colors. Of course there are
(5 + 6 + 8) (5 + 6 + 8) (5 + 6 + 8) = 6859 total ways of drawing three balls with replacement. Thus the desired probability is
1440
0.2099.
6859
4. Problem 2.42 of the textbook.
Solution.
The probability of getting a double 6 in one toss is
The probability
The probability

1
.
36
1
35
of not getting a double 6 in one toss is 1 36
= 36
.
n
1 n
of not getting a double 6 in n tosses is (1 36
) = 35
.
36
1
66

The probability of getting at least one double 6 in n tosses is 1 (1

n
1 n
) = 1 35
.
36
36
n

To make this probability at least 12 , we let 1 35

21 , i.e. n
36
24.6051, therefore n should be at least 25.

ln( 12 )
35
ln( 36
)

5. Problem 2.45 of the textbook.

Solution.
W.L.O.G. number the n keys 1, 2, , n, and assume that key 1 would
open the door.
(a) The probability that she will open the door on her 1st try is n1 .
The probability that the her first try does not succeed is 1 n1 =
n1
. However, whatever her first try is (unless it is key 1), she
n
is left with (n 1) choices (including key 1) for her second try,
and they are equally likely. Therefore, the probability that she
1
= n1 .
will open the door on her 2nd try is (1 n1 ) n1
The probability that her first two tries both fail is 1 n1 n1 = n2
.
n
Now whatever her first two tries are (as long as they are not key
1), she is left with (n 2) choices for the third try, and again
they are equally likely. Therefore, the probability that she will
1
open the door on her 3rd try is (1 n1 n1 ) n2
= n1 .
2

Repeat the argument until k = n (because she must succeed in

n tries), we see that the desired probability is n1 , for all k =
1, 2, , n.
(b) If she does not discard previously tried keys, the situation would
be largely the same as above, except that this time she is left with
n (instead of n k + 1) choices on her kth try. The answer is
1
( n1
)k1 for her kth try, k = 1, 2, .
n
n
6. Theoretical exercise 2.14 of the textbook.
Proof.
n = 1 is trivial and n = 2 is Proposition 4.3.
Suppose the equality holds for all n k, k 2. For n = k + 1 we have
P (E1

k
X

E2

Ek+1 )

Ek ) + P (Ek+1 ) P ((E1

[ [
\
E2 Ek ) Ek+1 )
[ [ [
[
[ [
= P (E1 E2 Ek ) + P (Ek+1 ) P (E1 Ek+1 E2 Ek+1 Ek Ek+1 )

= P (E1

E2

P (Ei )

P (Ei1 Ei2 ) + + (1)r+1

1i1 <i2 k

i=1

P (Ei1 Ei2 Eir )

1i1 <i2 <<ir k

k+1

+ + (1) P (E1 E2 Ek )
+P (Ek+1 )
k
X
X
{
P (Ei Ek+1 )
P (Ei1 Ek+1 Ei2 Ek+1 ) +
1i1 <i2 k

i=1

+(1)r+1

P (Ei1 Ek+1 Ei2 Ek+1 Eir Ek+1 )

1i1 <i2 <<ir k

+ + (1)k+1 P (E1 Ek+1 E2 Ek+1 Ek Ek+1 )}

k
k
X
X
X
= (
P (Ei ) + P (Ek+1 )) (
P (Ei1 Ei2 ) +
P (Ei Ek+1 ))
1i1 <i2 k

i=1

+ + ((1)k+1 P (E1 E2 Ek ) (1)k

i=1

X
1i1 <i2 <<ik1 k

k+1

(1)

P (E1 E2 Ek Ek+1 )

P (Ei1 Ei2 Eik1 Ek+1 ))

k+1
X

P (Ei )

1i1 <i2 k+1

i=1

k+2

+ + (1)

P (Ei1 Ei2 ) + + (1)r+1

1i1 <i2 <<ir k+1

P (E1 E2 Ek+1 )

Therefore the equality holds for n = k + 1. We are done.

7. Theoretical exercise 2.19 of the textbook.
Solution.
Imagine we continue the withdrawals even after we have gathered r red
balls. Following the Hint, the probability that there are r 1 red balls
( n )( m )
in the first k 1 withdrawals is r1m+nkr . Now there are n r + 1
( k1 )
red balls and m k + r blue balls left in the urn. Its easy to see
n
m
nr+1
nr+1 (r1)(kr)
that nr+1+mk+r
of the previous probability, i.e., n+mk+1
,
m+n
( k1 )
is what we want.
8. Theoretical exercise 2.20 of the textbook.
Solution.
Count and name the points as 1, 2, . If all points are equally likely,
denote by c their common probability, then c 0. If c = 0, by the
countable additivity of probability, the probability of the whole sample
space would be P (S) = 0 + 0 + = 0, which should be 1. If c > 0,
then P (S) P ({1, 2, , n}) = nc, which would exceed 1 for large n.
It is possible that all points have a positive probability of occurring,
for example, if the sample space is {0, 1, 2, } and the probability of
the nth point is P (n) = 21n , n = 0, 1, 2, .
9. Toss a coin for 8 times, what is the probability that you do not observe
consecutive HH in the sequence?
Solution.
Denote by an the number of tossing sequences (constituted of Hs and
Ts exclusively) of length n in which there is no consecutive HH. Obviously a1 = 2 and a2 = 3. For n 3 we count the number of HHavoiding n-sequences as follows

P (Ei1 Ei2 Eir )

 If the sequence starts with T, then it is HH-avoiding iff the rest

of the sequence (of length n-1) is.
If the sequence starts with H and followed by a T, then it is HHavoiding iff the rest of the sequence (of length n-2) is.
If the sequence starts with HH, it cant be HH-avoiding.
To sum up, we have an = an1 +an2 . As an easy consequence, a8 = 55.
The desired probability is thus

a8
55
.
= 256
28

Comment:
One could also sum the number of sequences which have no consecutive HH over the total number of Heads in the sequence, say r (r =
0, 1, 2, 3, 4), and by aid of EXAMPLE 5o of Chapter 2 in the textbook,
to get the same result.
10. Suppose we need to schedule 3 speakers for 3 talks on 3 different dates.
Every speaker offers 2 possible dates. Suppose that all possibilities are
equally likely. What is the probability that there exists a scheduling
such that every speaker will get a date out of the two he/she offered?
What if we need to schedule 4 talks for 4 speakers and each speakers
again offers 2 possible dates?
Solution.
We need a combinatorial theorem called Halls theorem , see e.g.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halls marriage theorem. Specifically, in
our problem, it implies that a schedule exists iff for any k speakers,
there are at least k days that someone among the k speakers could give
his/her talk on.
(a) If there are 3 speakers and 3 days, Applying Halls theorem (or
just using some thoughts), a schedule does not exist iff everyone
choose the same two dates. There are in total 33 = 27 possibilities
and 3 of them have everyone choosing the same dates. Thus our
desired probability is 273
= 89 .
27
(b) If there are 4 speakers and 4 days, the condition in Halls theorem
would be automatically satisfied for k = 1, 2. For k = 3, it requires
that no three of them choose the same dates. For k = 4 it requires
that every day should be mentioned.
5

# of possibilities that three of the speakers choose the same dates=

6 + 4 6 5 = 126.
# of possibilities that some day is not chosen= 4 34 6 = 318.
# of possibilities that both scenarios above happen= 6+464 =
102.
= 53
.
Thus, the desired probability is 1 126+318102
64
72
11. Suppose we interview n rankable candidates sequentially and need to
make a decision of hiring/not hiring for each candidate right after
his/her interview. Here is a possible strategy. For r < n, we interview
the first r candidates and hire no one out of them (denote by M the
best), and then hire the first subsequent candidate who is better than
M. Suppose that all the orderings of the candidates are equally likely.
What is the probability of hiring the best candidate using the above
strategy?
Solution.
Order the candidates as 1, 2, , n with 1 being the worst and n being
the best. Clearly there are altogether n! interviewing sequences. We
count the number of the interviewing sequences for which we would
hire the best candidate (i.e. n) using our strategy, as follows. Suppose
the best candidate

among the first r interviewees is k. Clearly k r.
k1
There are r1 r! possible sequences for the first r slots (because k
must be present there). After the first r slots are filled, there are
altogether (n r)! possible sequences for the rest n r slots, for which
we focus our attention on positions that candidates better than k (i.e.
k + 1, k + 2, , n) occupy. There must be always n k such positions,
and we would finally hire n iff n(rather than k + 1, k + 2, , n 1)
is the first to appear among these n k positions. Therefore, exactly
1
of the (n r)! sequences for the last n r slots meet our demand.
nk
Pn1 k1
( )r! 1 (nr)!
Our desired probability is thus P (hiring n) = k=r r1 n! nk
=
k1
Pn1 (r1)
k=r nk
.
(nr)

k1
P
)
(r+l1
For l = 0, 1, , n r 1, denote n1
by al . We have
k=r+l nk


n1
k1
X
r+l1
al =
nk
k=r+l


n1
k1
r+l
X
1
krl r+l
=
+
nk
nrl
k=r+l+1


n1
X
1
1
1
k1
1
=
(
+
)+
(r + l)
nrl
r+l nrl krl nk
k=r+l+1




n1
n1
k1
k1
X
X
r+l
1
r+l
r+l
=
(
+
)+
n r l k=r+l+1 n k k=r+l+1 k r l
nrl


n1
k1
X
r+l
1
r+l
r+l1
al+1 +
+
=
nrl
n r l k=r+l+1 r + l
nrl

n1 
X
1
k1
r+l
al+1 +
(1 +
)
=
r+l1
nrl
nrl
k=r+l+1


1
r+l
n1
al+1 +
=
nrl
nrl r+l
anr1 = 1


1
n1
r
a0 =
+
a1
nr
r
nr




n1
1
n1
r+1
1
r
r
a2
=
+
+
nr
r
nrnr1 r+1
nrnr1




1
n1
r
1
n1
=
+
nr
r
nrnr1 r+1


r+1
1
n1
r
r+1
r+2
r
+
+
a3
nrnr1nr2 r+2
nrnr1nr2
= 





1
n1
r
1
n1
r
1
n1
=
+
+
+
nr
r
nrr+1
r
nrr+2
r


r
1
n1
+
nrn1
r

X
n1
r
n1
1
=
nr
r
k
k=r

a0

Pn1

1
k=r k .
()
Note: This problem is termed with secretary problem, see e.g.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary problem. Our laborious calculation above could have been saved if weve counted the interviewing sequences that meet our demand in another way: 1/n of the total sequences would have the best candidate at the kth place, k =
r + 1, r + 2, , n, and he would be selected iff the best of the first
k 1 candidates is among those we ignored (i.e. the first r candidates).
This also gives a natural explanation of the result we derived above.

Thus P (hiring n) =

n
r

r
n