Futures 44 (2012) 91104

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Futures
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Megapatterns of global settlement: Typology and drivers in a

warming world
Trausti Valsson *, Gudmundur F. Ulfarsson 1
University of Iceland, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hjardarhagi 6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland

A R T I C L E I N F O

A B S T R A C T

Article history:
Available online 9 September 2011

Changes in settlement structures of the world can be described as megapatterns that

represent dynamic spatial trends. This paper denes and describes three types of such
megapatterns that will be of major inuence in shaping global settlement and activity
structures in the future, given a warming climate: (1) megapatterns driven by global
warming; (2) megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources, and (3)
megapatterns driven by important spatial positions. The megapatterns are ordered into a
typology and their individual and collective impacts are described.
The major ndings of this paper are: because of global warming many of the central
areas of the globe will experience heat, water and pollution problems that will induce
people and activities to be moved to cooler, wetter areas. As high, cool terrains, as well as
the virgin Sub-Polar Regionsmostly located in Siberia, Northern Canada, Northern
Scandinavia, Greenland, Alaska, Southern Argentina, and Southern Chilestart to get
warmer, it will become possible to relocate water-craving industries, like agriculture and
resource extraction. This will not necessarily lead to a large population shift, since
relatively few workers are needed for most such operations.
2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Without a historical overview of climate patterns and shifts, the world seems to be static because global changes happen
slowly. With global warming, however, the changes have become fast enough that we cannot help but realize that the world
is, indeed, dynamic and changing. Therefore we can be certainif the warming continuesthat the settlement and activity
structures of the world will change considerably in this century [1,2].
In the course of the history of the Earth, climate changes have been a major force in driving human migration, and thus
changing settlement patterns [3]. In more recent times, technological advances and changes in global population and
activities have also been underlying forces in driving changes in global and regional settlement patterns.
The main pattern of change that has emerged in earlier periods of global warming has been the spread of climate, bio-, and
settlement zones towards the Polar areas. This spread has now, once more, started to occur because of the extensive warming
trend of our times. The main global warming megapatternTowards the Poleshas been widely covered in the literature in
terms of bio-zones [1].
The less known spatial migration trends in response to a warming climate will be in the future: To coasts in warm regions;
To currently cold but warming central areas in colder regions; and To high plateaus in very warm regions. The literature on

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +354 525 4664; fax: +354 525 4632.
E-mail addresses: tv@hi.is (T. Valsson), gfu@hi.is (G.F. Ulfarsson).
1
Tel.: +354 525 4907; fax: +354 525 4632.
0016-3287/$ see front matter 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.09.001

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these trends deals mostly with the migration of species in the natural world to cooler areas in times of warming, as their habitats
become too warm for survival [4]. Articles on human migration that follows similar patterns have started to appear (e.g. [5]).
Literature that analyses what areor have beenthe main drivers of modern human migration has a long history. Two
well-known writers on this subject are Ravenstein and Lee. Ravenstein compiled the Laws of Migration between 1834 and
1913, largely dealing with the realm of socially related phenomena. An example of his laws is: Families are less likely to
make international moves than young adults. [6]
Lees laws, on the other hand, divide migrations into push and pull factors. Push factors are factors that are considered to
be bad about a country or an area and that therefore encourage outmigration, whereas pull factors attract people to an area
[7]. Some recent publications examine push and pull factors from a wide perspective, including changes within the realms of
global demography and globalization [8]. The recent discipline of climate history deepens this examination by suggesting
that some migration movements throughout history had their origins in climatic occurrences [9].
This paper does not focus on the social drivers in migration which are most commonly studied. The focus is rather on
types of dynamic spatial trends over the globe. They follow certain patterns, and collectivelytogether with many other
factorsinuence how global and regional settlement patterns are shaped and changed. By identifying such dynamic trends
in the world of todaywhich includes making assumptions on what will drive them in the futurea tool is created that can
help suggest the main changes in the settlement and activity patterns of the globe in the future [10]. These spatial patterns
are here termed megapatterns because they span wide spatial and temporal scales.
The two related terms, or concepts: megatrends and megapatterns, are rather recent. One of the rst authors to dene
megatrends was the futurologist Naisbitt [11]. Makridakis [12], a pioneer in identifying megapatterns and a scholar of
management theory, notes: In order to forecast the long term, it is necessary to look at information going as far back as
possible and to identify trends, then to study how such trends might change in the future and their effect on society, work
and jobs. [12, p. 69]
The development of the impact of the drivers of the megapatterns is uncertain, as with everything that may happen in the
distant future. In some cases, as with global warming, many technical solutions are possible to facilitate adaption. Such
solutions will lessen the pressure on people to migrate. The sites of activities like agriculture and resource exploitation are
more likely to migrate. This possibility of detaching the migration of activities and people has come about with global
transport, international trade agreements and the invention of new technologies that require fewer workers.
There exist many reports that estimate the possible number of migrants in the future because of climate change. The 4th
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes the estimates of numbers of
environmental migrants as at best, guesswork because of a host of intervening factors that inuence both the impact of
climate change and migration patterns [1]. Therefore no such numbers are included in this paper.
The megapatterns discussed in this paper and that will be of major inuence in shaping global settlement in the future,
given a warming climate, are classied by their drivers into three types: (1) megapatterns driven by global warming; (2)
megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources, and (3) megapatterns driven by an important spatial position.
2. Methods
The term pattern is a part of the context created by active time and is used to signify how something happens over time.
Dictionaries also give a meaning that signies a static pattern as, for instance: a pattern of a settlement in a certain period of
time. Dynamic patternslike the ones dealt with in this paperare not as easy to describe with pictures as the static ones:
they need to be presented as diagrams with arrows that show in which direction each of the global spatial-trends are
pointing (see Glossary).
Almost every atlas has arrow diagrams portraying historic migrations and paths of invasion. The best example of the
usefulness of discovering and dening large scale patterns on the surface of the globe is from Earth sciences. By studying the
global patterns of earthquakes, Wegener [13] hypothesized the existence of tectonic plates. His theory was that these are plates
that are drifting on the surface of the globe, creating earthquakes as they collide, pull apart or rub as they pass each other [13].
In this paper, ten types of movements on the surface of the globedriven by basic forcesare identied as dynamic
megapatterns. The identication of megapatterns as a method to explain the historic development of a single country has
been performed, using Iceland as a case example [14]. There, two spatial megapatterns are identied: a pull to the interior
exerted by space and timber and grazing resources after the initial settlement of the coasts of the country in the late ninth
century, and later, a renewed emphasis on settlement of the coasts with the advent of increased shing, steamships, an
increase in foreign markets for Icelandic sh, and a population increase in coastal settlements [14].
From this description we see that the settlement of an area, country or region actually develops within a eld of forces.
Basically, there are two types of forces: a pull force that pulls people towards an area, and the countervailing, push force that
propels people out of an area [7].
Lees pull factors are: job opportunities; better living conditions; political and/or religious freedom; enjoyment;
education; better medical care; attractive climates; security; family links; industry; better chances of marrying [7].
Lees push factors are: not enough jobs; few opportunities; primitive conditions; desertication; famine or drought;
political fear or persecution; slavery or forced labour; poor medical care; loss of wealth; natural disasters; death threats; lack
of political or religious freedom; pollution; poor housing; landlord/tenant issues; bullying; discrimination; poor chances of
marrying; condemned housing; war/civil war [7].

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Lees [7] pull and push factors are mostly at work on small or medium spatial scales and mostly originate in the social
realm. Two pull factors are exceptions to this: better living conditions and attractive climates. There are also two push factors
that are exceptions to this generalization: desertication and drought.
This present paper develops a typology of megapatterns, their relationships and their main push and pull factors. This
paper also denes the patterns graphically on maps, indicating, with directional arrows, areas that pull or push.
The method created to develop the megapattern theory of this paper divides into four steps: (1) identifying the three main
drivers of the megapatterns by studying historically what has driven such patterns in the past; (2) identifying the directional
arrows by studying topological and thematic maps; (3) dening with the help of historical studies, what push and pull
factors move each of the megapatterns; (4) identifying with the help of history and various impact reports, the impact of the
megapatterns, individually and collectively.
The following text lists all of the ten megapatterns, what drives them and this papers denition of what push and pull
factors are at work in each of them.
(1) Megapatterns driven by global warming.
Pull factors: (a) Global warming, and the enormous resources that will be made accessible by the improved sea and
land transport in the Polar areas because of less snow and ice. (b) The pull of coasts in warm regions because of their
relative coolness and their wide range of climates to choose from. (c) The warming of interiors in cold countries. (d) The
cool temperatures of the high plateaus in warm countries.
Push factors: (a) A push away from the central areas of the globe because of heat and lack of water. (b) A push away
from increasingly hot, and often dry, interiors in already warm central regions of the globe.
(2) Megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources.
Pull factors: (a) Improved transportation in an area by ships, planes, rail, and roads. (b) Areas better accessible because
of better weather and sea ice forecasts, and better communication. (c) New resource development areas of, for example,
oil, gas, minerals, and sh. (d) Areas where resources are predicted to be discovered. (e) Resource areas that will become
better accessible because of global warming and improved technologies.
Push factors: (a) Problem areas in terms of transport. (b) Areas with overburdened and dated transportation systems.
(c) Areas with reduced value of sea and coastal resources. (d) Areas with lessened feasibility of sea or coastal
transportation. (e) Areas with dwindling resources. (f) Areas with polluted soil, water, and air. (g) Areas with
disillusionment about technology, crowding and pollution, push some people towards simpler and cleaner areas.
(3) Megapatterns driven by an important spatial position.
Pull factors: (a) Areas with a gravitational pull because of mass: i.e. major, new population and activity centres. (b)
The magnetism of the linear centre that runs north of the middle of the globes ribbon of habitation, the area historically
with the best climate for crops and humans. (c) The magnetism of the centre of the landmass of the globe, which is
approximately located in the southern Urals in Russia.
Push factors: (a) Some major population and activity centres are increasingly crowded, expensive, and polluted, which
repels some people and locating some activities there. (b) The wish to be located centrally, i.e. close to the central
landmass areas of the globebut not in remote areaswill eventually, push more people and activities towards this
global landmass centre.
The denition of areas listed here, is partly based on Valsson and Ulfarsson [15], who dene areas that gain or lose by: (a)
opening of the Arctic sea routes; (b) areas that will change in land quality with global warming, e.g. by the extension of
deserts, as well as development of new prime land closer to the Polar Regions; (c) areas that are affected by changes where
most new oil and gas production is located, i.e. areas with declining oil production, and areas with increasing oil production
(the Arctic); and (d) areas that will gain or lose by a Polar spatial centre.
Lees [7] model of pull and push factors includes an elaboration on intervening obstacles between areas that push and
pull. In the 20th century these obstacles have changed in many ways. In general, political borders have become more of an
obstacle, more dividing, whereas international organizations, globalization, global tourism, and technological innovations
have contributed to a more connected world, in a general sense. This, however, may not, necessarily, make human migration
between countries easier. The creation of regional unions, like the Russian Federation and the European Union, on the other
hand, facilitates migration between the countries within their borders.
In reviewing options for responding to the problems of global warming in terms of technology and consumption, there are
basically two approaches: The rst is: to go back, i.e. to reduce consumption and use of resources, and thus reduce
the ensuing pollution, like the production of greenhouse gases. The second approach is: to escape forward, i.e. away from
the problems of todays global systems by seeking to create new technological and managerial solutions to the problems. The
authors believe more emphasis should be placed on this policy option.
3. Problems and solutions in the future
Much of what is said in this paper is based on assumptions about what will be the most threatening problems to the globe
in the future. It is necessary to dene what kind of solutions can relieve them. Frequently, as historical accounts testify, there

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have arisen seemingly unsolvable problems, leading to the rise of doomsayers who even predicted the end of the world.
Earlier, doom was primarily attributed to a breach in morals.
Since the beginning of the industrial age, worry has shifted to the potential dangers of pollution and resource depletion
[16]. In the last 60 years, this has been compounded by fear of nuclear disaster through either war or accident.
In the time of horse-drawn carriages, for example, the growing amount of horse manure in city streets seemed to be an
unsolvable problem [17]. Another example was the enormously growing trend in the use of copper. By predicting copper
consumption in communication technology, for instance, it could easily be proven that the world would run out of copper
in the 20th century, and that this would mean the collapse of our civilization. But once again we were saved, in this case by
technology, wireless transmissions and the invention of optical cables [18]. In hindsight it is thus easy to see that for the last
200 years or so technology and science have saved us from such dooms and catastrophes. The drive to go forward, perhaps in
part pushed by the fear of doom, has motivated the discovery and implementation of solutions to pressing problems.
In the world of today, the central problem is that nations have to burn enormous amounts of fossil fuels to meet energy
demands. However, we can realize that the world is lled with energy-producing potential, and we can say that if we nd the
means to harness this energy, in an economical and environmentally friendly way, the problems associated with the use of
fossil fuels will be solved [19]. The elds of bio- and nano-technology are predicted by some scientists to become total game
changers in creating new solutions [20,21]. Cheap energy would help countries to prosper, to provide water, and to cool
habitats. This is the key to making it possible for the populations of the warm and dry countries to continue to live where they
are, because uprooting and mass migration into other countries would create serious new problems [5,22]. Cheap, clean
energy can help solve the most worrisome settlement problems associated with global warming. The disruption of rainfall
patterns and a population explosion in some areas mean that today, potable water has become scarce in many densely
populated areas, leading to further catastrophes in those areas [23]. Here too we need to widen our horizons, because clean
water exists in abundant quantities in many sparsely settled regions of the world.
At least in the short term, it is a fact that in many of the highly populated regions of the world, the situation of water
quality and availability is increasingly grave. On the other hand, the water situation in many sparsely populated regions, like
Siberia and Northern Canada, is good; some of it now exist in the form of ice and snow [24]. This water will ow ever more
readily with global warming. There are plans in these regions to reverse rivers that ow north and let them ow south where
more water is needed. A better idea than to reverse rivers is to move water-craving operations like agriculture to the
warming north, where there is an abundance of clean water, soil, and space. The suggestion to move agriculture north,
however, needs critical reection, because many scientists predict that bio- and gene-technology can help develop plants
that can thrive in areas of more heat and less water [25].
Earlier in history, most areas of resource and food production had to be close to cities and within national boundaries.
Global transportation and international trade have changed this pattern and provide the opportunity to let resource and food
production be located elsewhere.
The interpretation in the following sections, i.e. of what the megapatterns will mean in terms of human migration, will
take account of the optimistic view that the main energy and water problems can be solved, so that ways can be found to
make it possible for most people to stay in their home territories. Of course, the scenario of global mass-migration also needs
to be researched, though it is beyond the objectives of this paper. This paper assumes that, even as bio-, nano- and other new
technologies provide new opportunities, there will still be many decades where agricultural and other activities need, to
some extent, to be moved to new, warm, clean and water-rich areas of the globe.
4. Typology of megapatterns
This section presents ten megapatterns that dene what spatial developments are at work in shaping the global
settlement and activity structures of the future. The megapatterns are classied by three types of drivers: global warming;
improved technology and resources; and important spatial position. Each pattern is discussed in terms of the forces that pull
and push settlement and activities. Weights are not put on the impact of each megapattern, but their order (110),
represents, approximately, their degree of impact as hypothesized in this paper. The impact not only differs between
megapatterns and drivers but also between areas and periods. Megapattern 1: Towards the Poles, is predicted in this paper to
be the megapattern that will have the most impact on shaping the global settlement and activity structures in this century
i.e. if the warming continues.
4.1. Megapatterns driven by global warming
The main pattern of change that has emerged in earlier periods of global warming is the spread of climate, bio-,
settlement, and activity zones towards the Polar areas (see Table 1). This spread is now pushed by the extensive warming
trend of our times. The main global warming megapattern of Towards the Poles has been widely covered in the literature in
terms of bio-zones [1]. In addition, there are three less known migration trends in times of a warming climate: To coasts in
warm regions; To currently cold but warming central areas of regions; and To high plateaus in very warm regions.
The three typology-tables (Tables 13) dene the megapatterns, and describe what forces pull and push them. The
discussion of each megapattern gives historical examples on how they have worked, and interprets what meaning they may
have for the migration of activities and humans, in the future.

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Table 1
Typologymegapatterns driven by global warming.
Megapatterns driven by global warming

Forces that pull

Forces that push

A growing pull of the Polar areas because of

their warming, their enormous resources, and
improved sea- and land transport and because
of less snow and ice

A push away from the central areas of the

globe because of heat, lack of water,
crowding, dwindling resources, pollution,
conicts and high prices

Increased draw to the cool of coasts in very warm,

and increasingly warm, countries. Additional pull
of coasts: a wide range of climates to chose from

Activity and people repelled; pushed away,

from interiors, by increasingly hot and
often dry interiors in already very warm
central regions

Cool interiors of cold countries are largely

uninhabitable in winter. By increased warming
they will draw more activity and people

Push from some coasts because of crowding,

dwindling resources, pollution, costs,
and conicts of coastsbut less so because
of the warming

Cool, high interiors of very warm countries will

be more comfortable than the coasts in these
countries. Thus these interiors will develop
increased draw

Migration to interiors of very hot regions

will be helped by crowdedness, dwindling
resources, pollution, and conicts at coasts

Megapattern 1Towards the Poles (see Fig. 1) refers mostly to the migration of activities towards the North Polar Region in
this century, but less towards the South Polar Region. The South Pole area is the landmass of Antarctica, whereas the North
Pole area is an ocean, the Arctic Ocean. The ice in the Arctic is oating on increasingly warm ocean water, warmed by the
warming Gulf Stream. Because of this, and other reasons, the ice in the Arctic is retreating faster than by and on the Antarctic
continent, where the ice mass sits mostly on a high terrain. Therefore, except for the ice oating on the water around the
Antarctic landmass, the ice there is retreating less rapidly [1].
The ice on the Arctic Ocean is retreating fast. In the period 19792010 the multi-year ice retreated over about half of the
total area. Thinning of the remaining Arctic sea ice has also been taking place in this same period [26]. Earlier it was predicted
that the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean would have disappeared, in the summer, around 2040 [1]. If, however, the rate of warming
of the rst decade of the 21st century continues, some predict that the sea ice will have disappeared in the summer as early as
around 2020 [27]. This retreating of the ice is already allowing access to large stretches of the Arctic rim and the ocean oor
that, together, contain about 22% of the worlds oil and gas resources [28,29].
In short: The Arctic and the northern Sub-Polar area will be improving in habitability and offer easier conditions for more
human activity and will thus pull people and activities to these regions. However, the main change will be in activities. Many
of the workers will only work there in stints, as on oil platforms today, typically returning to their families in more southern
regions after each stint. The migration northward will not be as wrenching as might be supposed but rather be a direct
continuum of inhabited areas in the northern hemisphere.
The second most important migration megapattern induced by global warming is the pull to coasts in the eventually very
warm areas of the centrally located regions and continents of the globe (see Fig. 2). In the case of this megapattern it will be
the people rather than activities which will be pulled to the coolness of the coastal areas. Examples of regions inuenced by
this pattern are central and northern Africa [3], though the pull to the cooler coasts will also be experienced in the warm
coastal regions of the Americas, Southern Europe and in Southern and Eastern Asia.
Basically many coastal areas are, and will be, still more problematic in the future. Some of the reasons are: 4060 cm rise
in sea level in this century (higher numbers if the global warming intensies); hurricanes are likely to intensify and grow in
number; subsidence because of lowering of ground water; and increased wave action because of stronger winds. All these

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Table 2
Typologymegapatterns driven by improved technology and resources.
Megapatterns driven by improved
technology and resources

Forces that pull

Forces that push

In history improved sea- and coastal transportation

pulled people out of interiors, towards coasts. This
will also happen on coasts in the Polar Regions

Crowdedness, dwindling resources,

pollution, conicts, and problems
with transport, push people out of
some interior areas, towards coasts

Inland resources and improved land-, river- and air

transport draw people and activity from coasts to
interiors

People and activity may be pushed

from coasts by reduced value of
sea- and coastal resources, and lessened
feasibility of sea- or coastal transportation

Better ships, weather- and sea-ice forecasts, better

communication and frontierism, will draw people
and activity further north and south on the globe

Disillusion about technological and polluted

societies, will push some people towards
simpler and cleaner areas, like the northern
and southern regions of the globe

Table 3
Typologymegapatterns driven by an important spatial position.
Megapatterns driven by an important
spatial position

Forces that pull

Forces that push

Major new population- and activity centres

have a force; gravity draw, that will pull
people and activity towards them

Some regions and old centres are lacking in

opportunities for activities, which may repel
some people and activity from them to
prospering centres

A linear centrelocated in the northern

part of the ribbon of habitationdraws
people and activity from both directions

Placement at the edge of the ribbon is unpopular

by many people and activities. Internet and other
long-distance communication, reduce the
drawbacks of remote placements

The centre of the landmass of the globein

the Uralswill draw people and activity
from all directions, mostly in the northern
hemisphere, with more open borders
and activity

The wish to be located centrallyand not in remote

areaspushes people and activity towards central
landmass areas

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Fig. 1. Megapattern 1Towards the Poles.

factors add to coastal erosion which, in coastal areas of easily erodible rocks and soils, will engulf large tracts of land. This
certainly will make development and habitation in many coastal areas problematic. Therefore the the advice of
megapattern 2: To migrate to coasts in warm regions, needs the qualication not into coastal danger zones. The safety zone
away from the coast, due to weather and ooding, can in many cases be quite short, e.g. a few hundred meters. The general
pattern towards the coast therefore still holds.
Today, the interiors of cold countries are relatively uninhabitable. With global warming the forbidding cold of these
interior areas will be eased [1]. The driving force behind migration to such areas will be not only warming, but also the
improved technology and the growing importance of these regions as centres of huge landmasses. Their primitive interior
infrastructures will thus continue to develop. These cold, central areas will, therefore, draw people and activities in
increasing numbers (see Fig. 3). Areas that are impacted by this megapattern include, for example, Northern Canada and
Central Siberia, and the southernmost parts of South America and South Africa.
Today, some high interiors of warm countries are rather cold, for example, in the high altitudes of the Andes and Rocky
mountain ranges in the Americas [30]. But with further warming such cool, high terrains will start to draw more interest and
economic activity because they will become more comfortable for habitation and exploitation (see Fig. 4). Areas that will be
affected by this megapattern included, for example, high central plateaus in Central Asia, Africa and South America.

Fig. 2. Megapattern 2To coasts in warm regions.

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Fig. 3. Megapattern 3To central areas in cold but warming region.

4.2. Megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources

The second driver of human migration and economic activities is improved technology that helps to open up new
territories and new resource areas (see Table 2). This driver will, for example, be at work in the process of opening up the
Polar Regions [31]. Table 2 shows the main pull and push forces that are here at work. The discussion of the megapatterns in
Table 2 gives historical examples and interprets what meaning each individual megapattern may have for the migration of
activities or humans on the globe in the future.
In the early 19th centuryat the beginning of the industrial age in the Westas most industries were dependent on good
solutions for the heavy transportation of iron and coal and industrial exports, there was a strong pull towards coasts. The
reason for this was that ships and barges were the only economical way of transporting heavy cargos over long distances.
Therefore most of the rst industrial towns were placed along coasts and navigable rivers [30]. In this early era seaside and
riverside towns and ports prospered, leading to the building of better ships that opened up the way to sail between
continents in all seasons, especially after steamships became available. This meant a huge spread in globalization of trade, a
development that led to even further prosperity for coastal towns. Industrial shing on the high seas also contributed to this
development.

Fig. 4. Megapattern 4To central areas in hot but warming regions.

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Fig. 5. Megapattern 5Towards coasts.

Because of the migration to coastal settlements (see Fig. 5), the population of interior areas was reduced, at least
relatively. What later started to reverse this settlement process of pulling people to the coasts, was the strengthening of
interior transportation with canals, locks and larger motorized barges on rivers, the development of railway lines, and the
improvement of road systems. This made the often little used resources of the interiors better accessible, which also
contributed to the increased pull of interior areas [32]. A similar settlement process will start to occur in Siberia and Northern
Canada, with reduced sea ice along their coasts and less ice in the rivers emptying into the Arctic Ocean. This will lead to
shipping along the coastlines, and gradually into the interior via navigable rivers. As this happens more areas will open up for
resource extraction and other activities.
Improved river transportation and other land-based transportation contribute to activities in continental interiors (see
Fig. 6). Historically interior transportation was strengthened with the building of canals, often with locks. Later, larger,
motorized barges contributed to this, and then the development of railway lines and the improvement of road systems
facilitated activity in the interiors. The improved infrastructure made the often little used resources of the interiors better
accessible, which also contributed to the increased pull of interior areas.
The development of interior areas has now, for example, reached such a degree in Western Europe that today most
coastal towns have declined considerablywith a few exceptions, like Rotterdam and Hamburg [33]. This is because these

Fig. 6. Megapattern 6Towards interior areas.

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Fig. 7. Megapattern 7Towards the Poles.

western societies are no longer based primarily on heavy industry and/or heavy transportation. Transportation in these
modern societies is principally that of light goods and people, via roads and trains, andsince the early 20th century
airplanes.
Airplanes have of late been a strong force in developing some centrally located areas, deep within continents, like the city
of Brasiliathe capital of Brazilthat was decided on, planned, and established because of its central location. Brasilia is,
because of the importance of ights, called an airborne city [34]. Earlier, similar geographically central locations were chosen
for the capitals of countries like Madrid in Spain and Mexico City in Mexico. Areas that will be affected by this megapattern in
the future (see Fig. 6) are the sparsely populated and the little developed interiors of, for instance, Siberia, Northern Canada,
Africa, and South America.
Megapattern 7Towards the Poles, has the same name and diagram, as megapattern 1 (see Figs. 1 and 7). In the case of
megapattern 1, it is global warming that was the driving force, but in the case of megapattern 7, it is improved technology
and resources that are the drivers. Improved technology means better ships, better weather- and sea-ice forecasts, and better
communications that, together with the warming, will open new possibilities to draw people and activity increasingly
further north and south on the globe, and even towards hard-to-travel regions, like the Polar Regions.
4.3. Megapatterns driven by an important spatial position
The third type of megapattern is driven by changes in important spatial positions on the surface of the globe (see Table 3).
Such spatial patterns are known from the level of cities; for example shopping streets, as linear centres, and commercial
centres, as point centres; and these are areas that people and activities have a tendency to gravitate to.
Todays mega spatial-system of the globe is the ribbon of habitation that spans the central region of the globe. Recently
it has been predicted that another spatial-system, a semi-global spatial-system willif global warming becomes excessive in
the futureeventually emerge [35].
Some major countries, with their dynamic and growing population and activity centres, have a forcea gravity draw
that pulls people and activities towards them (see Fig. 8). Some declining countries, and their population and activity centres,
on the other hand, are increasingly crowded and unattractive, which tends to repel people and activities from them.
Countries or areas of the new, dynamic point centres of global activity will be affected by this megapattern in this century.
The most important of these growing countries that we predict will be those centres of the world that will grow the most pull
in the 21st century are the BRIC countries of China (1300 million population), India (1200 million population), Russia (140
million population) and Brazil (190 million population) [36]. Brazils and Russias golden future is not so much in their
population numbers, but rather in their enormous space and resources. Canada (34 million population) will continue to
prosper because of space and resources, but its low population numbers mean that it will not become a major centre of global
activity.
Two of the old point centres of global activity will decline, at least relatively, because of two main reasons: their
population numbers (2009) are a low percentage of the world population, and they may already have reached their peak
relative to world growth. These powers are: the USA (310 million, 4.7% of the world population) and the European Union (500
million, 8% of the world population) [36].

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101

Fig. 8. Megapattern 8Towards new prospering point centres of global activity.

In megapattern 9 we are dealing with a linear centre that is placed in the northern part of the ribbon of habitation that
girdles the globe (see Fig. 9). This linear centre draws people and activities from both directions. Areas that benet from the
proximity to the global linear centre are mostly areas in Europe, North Africa, the USA, and Southern and Eastern Asia.
The centre of the landmass of the globe is, approximately, in the southern part of the Ural Mountains in Russia (see a dark
point with circles around it in Fig. 10). This centre of the landmass of the globe will draw people and activities from all
directions, though mostly from areas in Europe and Asia. More open borders and co-operation will help this happen in the
future, especially if Russia joins the European Union [37]. It is a little known fact that Russias new immigration policy
enacted in 2007 is aimed at boosting its declining population numbers. Also, Russia is the second largest immigration
country after the USA; 180,000 migrants enter Russia every year although some migrants are seasonal workers. The number
of unregistered migrants is estimated to be between three and four million [38].
Globalization, and the wish to be at a central location on the surface of the globeand not in remote areaspushes,
generally speaking, people and activities towards central landmass areas. Cargo airline companies are especially keen on
operating out of central landmass areas of regions and continents in order to reduce their total ight distances on a regional
and continental scale and, increasingly, on a global scale as well [39].

Fig. 9. Megapattern 9Towards the linear centre of global habitation.

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Fig. 10. Megapattern 10Towards the centre of the landmass of the globe.

5. Interpretation
This section interprets how the ten megapatterns collectively will shape and change the global settlement and activity
structures in the future and also it may be advisable governmental policy for nations, in the view of the megapatterns. Before
giving a brief description of the collective impacts of the patterns, it is informative to review how the same, or similar,
megapatterns have impacted settlement structures in the past.
Let us rst look at the impact of changes in the transportation systems of the world, as described in megapatterns 5 and 6
(see Figs. 5 and 6). From this perspective, the advent of the continental railway systems and the development of the global
shipping lanes in the 19th century were of most importance [31]. The importance of these megapatterns grew in unison with
the strengthening of large central cities that, increasingly, became point centres of global activity (see megapattern 8, in
Fig. 8). Cyberspace, which is created by the Internet and other long-distance communication tools, will reduce the drawbacks
of remote placements in this century, thus reducing the importance of megapatterns 8 and 9 (see Figs. 8 and 9).
Megapattern 8, Towards the point centres of global activity (see Fig. 8) will be strengthened as such, however, but certain
centres will decline (e.g. the USA and Western Europe). Others will increase in strength and drawing power (e.g. China, India
and Brazil). It is important to note that the location at the linear centre of the globe (see Fig. 8) will not be as important as
before because the world is becoming increasingly attened through cyberspace [40].
With technological advances in railways, shipbuilding, and navigation systems their eld of operation has, in the last
hundred years, been spreading ever further into the cold regions of the far north and south (see Fig. 5) [31]. In the future, it
will be the warming climate and improvements in technology, in unison, that will let the ribbon of global habitation extend
still further into the two Polar Regions (see Figs. 1 and 7). The extension of transport systems into the North Polar Region, and
eventually the creation of shipping circles around North America and Eurasia, will dramatically transform transportation
within the northern regions of these two continents and between the North Atlantic and Pacic spaces [35]. What follows
from the development of the described new transportation opportunities, is increased commercial activity in the Arctic
Ocean and in the Sub-Polar Region.
With advancements in global interconnectedness, global air travel has been increasing in recent decades. This trend will,
without much doubt, continue into the future [39]. Frequent and long air ights eastwest, across many time zones are,
however, hard on peoples health. It is easier on people to y northsouth, i.e. within similar time zones [41]. The importance
of intercontinental ights may be reduced by the advent of high speed railways that are now being considered for connecting
remote regions like China and Europe. Such trains would also reduce the importance of intercontinental shipping, including
over the Arctic Ocean [42].
As it comes to advisable governmental policy for nations individually, in the view of the megapatterns, the most basic
advice is not to restrict thinking to spaces within national borders. This broader approach to thinking applies, for instance,
to agricultural and resource needs. China, with its ample foreign currency reserves, is in the process of buying or leasing
suitable areas in many other countries [43]. Britain and Germany have started agriculture in East European countries [44],
and Germany is building wind farms in Rumania on the Black Sea [45].
Another advisable policy of nations that are likely to face problems because of lack of suitable areas in the future is to try
to seek entrance into regional unions like the USA, the EU, the Russian Federation, and Canada. The last two are especially
feasible because of the warming of their rich and enormous northern territories.

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6. Conclusions
The interpretation and evaluation of the overall spatial trends, visualized with the ten global megapatterns in this paper,
show that it is primarily the northern part of the northern hemisphere and the far north that will be the net recipients of
settlement and the concomitant activities that modernize civilization demands. This will mostly be seen as increased
shipping and increased resource exploitation in these areas. The likelihood of greatly reduced sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is
here the largest uncertainty factor [46]. The increase in Arctic oil and gas activity will be great, mostly because about 22% of
the oil and gas reserves of the world are estimated to be in the Arctic [28,47].
The central and southern areas of the globe, on the other hand, will be directly impacted by a relative net trend away,
primarily due to increasingly excessive heat and lack of water, except along the more temperate coasts and on the high
plateaus. The reduction of natural resources, like oil and gas, in the central areas of the globe, will also play a role.
If, in this century, methods can be developed to produce inexpensive, clean, and sustainable energy, the prosperity of
nations will increase. This will lead to added possibilities to produce clean water inexpensively and to cool interiors of
buildings. This would decrease the need for southerners to migrate elsewhere due to heat and lack of clean water. On the
other hand, what will probably be the greatest factor in pushing people out of their living areas is the rise of the sea level. In a
scenario of inexpensive, clean energy, the resulting prosperity would allow nations to protect their estuaries and coastlines,
as, for example, the relatively wealthy Netherland has been able to do [48].
The nations of the world should work towards the creation of inexpensive, clean energy and wider availability of
sufcient potable water because mass migration on a global scale, in a short period of time, would mean huge political,
economic, and cultural problems, and most likely wars.

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Glossary
Activity structure: See structure.
Cyberspace: The electronic space of today has no physical dimensions, so all points on the globe are equal.
Directional arrows: Arrows used to show in which direction each of the global spatial trends, megapatterns, are pointing.
Dynamic forces: Forces that impact dynamic settlement patterns. They divide into forces that pull (transportation facilities, resources, etc.) and
forces that push (excessive heat, lack of water, pollution, etc.).
Dynamic pattern: A pattern of dynamic, spatial developments in an area. See megapattern.
Linear centre: A spatial system where a line functions as a centre. A settlement area around a linear centre is called a ribbon of habitation.
Megapattern: The typical way a certain spatial development happens on a global- or regional scale. Activated by pull or push forces that originate in
environmental-, social-, resource- or activity features. See dynamic forces.
Megatrend: A general trend on a large scale, omitting small scale aberrations.
Ribbon of habitation: On a global scale it is the habitable belt that goes around the globe. With global warming this ribbon will stretch into the Polar
areas. A linear centre runs in the northern part of the ribbon.
Semi-global world: The world of the futurewith excessive global warmingis going to be a semi-global world of the northern hemisphere.
Settlement structure: A form-system in a settlement. See structure.
Spatial systems: Spatial types of settlement that originate in the topological qualities of form: a point centre system and a linear centre system.
Structure: A form-system in the world, in a country, region town. There are social, economic- and technological structures. The most important
settlement structures are the activity and habitation structures. Global structures cover the whole globe.