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Lecture 5: Sampling Methods

and the Central Limit Theorem

Outline
Explain why a sample is the only feasible way to learn
about a population

Describe methods to select a sample

Define and construct a sampling distribution of the
sample mean

Explain the central limit theorem

Use the Central Limit Theorem to find probabilities of
selecting possible sample means from a specified
population

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Why Sample the Population?

The physical impossibility of
checking all items in the
population.

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Major Sampling Types

Probability Sampling
Non-probability Sampling

The cost of studying all the

items in a population.
The time-consuming aspect of
contacting the whole
population.
The destructive
nature of certain
tests.

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The adequacy of
sample results in most
cases.

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Probability Sampling
A probability sample is a
sample selected such that each
item or person in the
population being studied has a
known likelihood of being
included in the sample
sample.

Simple Random Sample A sample formulated so that each item or

person in the population has the same chance of being included.

Four Most Commonly Used Probability Sampling Methods

1.Simple Random Sampling
2.Systematic Random Sampling
3.Stratified Random Sampling
4.Cluster Sampling

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Probability Sampling Methods

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Simple Random Sample: Using

Table of Random Numbers
A population consists of 845 employees of Nitra Industries. A sample
of 52 employees is to be selected from that population.
A more convenient method of selecting a random sample is to use
the identification number of each employee and a table of
random numbers such as the one in Appendix E.

EXAMPLE:
A population consists of 845 employees of Nitra Industries. A sample of 52
employees is to be selected from that population. The name of each
employee is written on a small slip of paper and deposited all of the slips in a
box. After they have been thoroughly mixed, the first selection is made by
drawing a slip out of the box without looking at it. This process is repeated
until the sample of 52 employees is chosen.

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Probability Sampling Methods

(contd)
Systematic Random Sampling The items or individuals of the
population are arranged in some order. A random starting point
is selected and then every kth member of the population is
selected for the sample.

EXAMPLE
A population consists of 845 employees of Nitra Industries.
A sample of 52 employees is to be selected from that population. First, k is
calculated as the population size divided by the sample size. For Nitra Industries,
we would select every 16th (845/52) employee list. If k is not a whole number, then
round down. Random sampling is used in the selection of the first name. Then,
select every 16th name on the list thereafter.

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Probability Sampling Methods

(contd)

Cluster Sampling: A population is divided into clusters using

naturally occurring geographic or other boundaries. Then,
clusters are randomly selected and a sample is collected by
randomly selecting from each cluster.

Stratified Random Sampling: A population is first

divided into subgroups, called strata, and a
sample is selected from each stratum.
EXAMPLE
Suppose we want to study the advertising expenditures for the 352 largest companies in the
United States to determine whether firms with high returns on equity (a measure of profitability)
spent more of each sales dollar on advertising than firms with a low return or deficit.
To make sure that the sample is a fair representation of the 352 companies, the
companies are grouped on percent return on equity and a sample proportional to the
relative size of the group is randomly selected.

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Probability Sampling Methods

(contd)

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Non-Probability Sampling

In non-probability sampling, inclusion in the sample is

based on the judgment of the person selecting the
sample.

EXAMPLE
Suppose you want to determine the views
of residents in Oregon about state and
federal environmental protection policies.
Cluster sampling can be used by
subdividing the state into small units
either counties or regions, select at
random say 4 regions, then take samples
of the residents in each of these regions
and interview them. (Note that this is a
combination of cluster sampling and
simple random sampling.)

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Sampling Error
The sampling error is the difference
betw een a sample statistic and its
corresponding population parameter.

For example,

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Sampling Distribution of the

Sample Mean
The sampling distribution of the sample mean is a
probability distribution consisting of all possible
sample means of a given sample size selected
from a population.

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Example 1 (contd)

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Example 1
Tartus Industries has seven production employees (considered the population). The
hourly earnings of each employee are given in the table below.
1. What is the population mean?
2. What is the sampling distribution of the sample mean for samples of size 2?
3. What is the mean of the sampling distribution?
4. What observations can be made about the population and the sampling
distribution?

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Example 1 (contd)

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Example 2 (contd)

Example 2
The law firm of Hoya and
Associates has five
partners. At their weekly
partners meeting each
reported the number of
hours they billed clients
for their services last
week.

Partner

Hours

Dunn

22

Hardy

26

Kiers

30

Malory

26

Tillman

22

5 objects
taken 2 at a
time.

Partners
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
2,3
2,4
2,5
3,4
3,5
4,5

If two partners are selected

randomly, how many different
samples are possible?
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Example 1 continued
Frequency

Relative
Frequency
probability

22

1/10

24

4/10

26

3/10

28

2/10

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5!
10
2! (5 2)!
Total
48
52
48
44
56
52
48
56
52
48

A total of 10
different
samples

Mean
24
26
24
22
28
26
24
28
26
24

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Example 2 (contd)

As a sampling distribution
Sample Mean

5 C2

Compute the mean of the sample means.

Compare it with the population mean.

The mean of the sample means

22 (1) 24 ( 2 ) 26 (3) 28 ( 2)
25 .2
10

Notice that the mean

of the sample means
is exactly equal to the
population mean.

The population mean

22 26 30 26 22
25.2
5

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Central Limit Theorem

CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM If all samples of a particular size are selected from any
population, the sampling distribution of the sample mean is approximately a normal
distribution. This approximation improves with larger samples.

If the population follows a normal probability

distribution, then for any sample size the
sampling distribution of the sample mean
will also be normal.

If the population distribution is symmetrical

(but not normal), shape of the distribution of
the sample mean will emerge as normal with
samples as small as 10.

If a distribution that is skewed or has thick

tails, it may require samples of 30 or more to
observe the normality feature.

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Central Limit Theorem (contd)

The mean of the sampling distribution
equal to and the variance equal to
2/n.

The standard error of the mean is the standard deviation of

the sample means given as:

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Using the Sampling

Distribution of the Sample Mean
Sampling distribution of the sample mean follows normal
distribution:
1. If population is normal ( Sample size is not a factor)
2. If population shape is unknown or non-normal, but sample
contains at least 30 observations

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Example 3
The Quality Assurance Department for Cola, Inc., maintains
records regarding the amount of cola in its Jumbo bottle. The
actual amount of cola in each bottle is critical, but varies a small
amount from one bottle to the next. Cola, Inc., does not wish to
under fill the bottles. On the other hand, it cannot overfill each
bottle. Its records indicate that the amount of cola follows the
normal probability distribution. The mean amount per bottle is
31.2 ounces and the population standard deviation is 0.4
ounces
ounces.
At 8 A.M. today the quality technician randomly selected 16 bottles
from the filling line. The mean amount of cola contained in the
bottles is 31.38 ounces.

IF SIGMA IS UNKNOWN
IF SIGMA IS KNOWN

X
n

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X
s n

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Is this an unlikely result? Is it likely the process is putting too much

soda in the bottles? To put it another way, is the sampling error
of 0.18 ounces unusual?

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Example 4

Example 3 (contd)
Step 1: Find the z-values corresponding to the sample mean of 31.38
z

X 31.38 31.20

1.80
n
$0.4 16

Step 2: Find the probability of observing a Z equal to or greater than 1.80

Conclusion: It is unlikely, less than a 4 percent chance, we could select a sample of 16

observations from a normal population with a mean of 31.2 ounces and a population
standard deviation of 0.4 ounces and find the sample mean equal to or greater than
31.38 ounces. The process is putting too much cola in the bottles.

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Example 4 (contd)

s
z

X
s

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$1.38 $1.30

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Example 4 (contd)

Step One : Find the z-values corresponding to

$1.22 and $1.38. These are the two points within
$0.08 of the population mean.

Suppose the mean selling

price of a gallon of gasoline in
the United States is $1.30.
Further, assume the
distribution is positively
skewed, with a standard
deviation of $0.28.
$0 28 What is
the probability of selecting a
sample of 35 gasoline stations
and finding the sample mean
within $.08?

Step Two: determine the probability of a z-value

between -1.69 and 1.69.

P(1.69 z 1.69) 2(.4545) .9090

1.69

$0.28 35

$1.22 $1.30
$0.28
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We would expect about 91

percent of the sample means
to be within $0.08 of the
population mean.

1.69

35
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Assignment-5
Problem 3 (Page 257) (Page 265)
Problems 5, 7, 9 (Page 262) (Page 270)
Problems 11, 13 (Pages 269-270) (Pages 277-278)
Problems
P bl
15
15, 17
17, 18 (P
(Page 274) (Page
(P
281)

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