Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Overview
History
1969 - Allin Cornell BSSA paper
Rapid development since that time
Ground
Ground
motion
motion
parameters
parameters
Probabilistic (PSHA)
Assumes many scenarios
Consider all magnitudes
Consider all distances
Consider all effects
Ground
Ground
motion
motion
parameters
parameters
Ground
Ground
motion
motion
parameters
parameters
rseis
rhypo
Seismogenic
depth
rhypo
rjb
rseis & rrup
rhypo
Source-site
Source-site
distance
distancedepends
depends
on
on where
whererupture
rupture
occurs
occurs
Source-site
Source-site
distance
distancedepends
depends
on
on where
whererupture
rupture
occurs
occurs
rmax
pdf
pdffor
forsourcesourcesite
sitedistance
distance
fR(r)
rmin
rmax
rmin
rmax
Draw
Drawseries
seriesof
of
concentric
concentriccircles
circles
with
withequal
equalradius
radius
increment
increment
Measure
Measurelength
lengthof
offault,
fault,
LLi,,between
each pair
i between each pair
of
ofadjacent
adjacentcircles
circles
Assign
Assignweight
weightequal
equalto
to
LLi/L
to each
i/L to each
corresponding
corresponding
distance
distance
rmin
rmax
Linear source
Divide
Divideentire
entirefault
faultinto
into
equal
equallength
lengthsegments
segments
Compute
Computedistance
distancefrom
from
site
siteto
tocenter
centerof
ofeach
each
segment
segment
Create
Createhistogram
histogramof
of
source-site
source-sitedistance.
distance.
Accuracy
Accuracyincreases
increases
with
withincreasing
increasing
number
numberof
ofsegments
segments
Divide
Dividesource
sourceinto
intoequal
equal
area
areaelements
elements
Areal Source
Compute
Computedistance
distancefrom
from
center
centerof
ofeach
eachelement
element
Create
Createhistogram
histogramof
of
source-site
source-sitedistance
distance
Divide
Dividesource
sourceinto
intoequal
equal
volume
volumeelements
elements
Compute
Computedistance
distancefrom
from
center
centerof
ofeach
eachelement
element
Create
Createhistogram
histogramof
of
source-site
source-sitedistance
distance
Unequal
Unequalelement
elementareas?
areas?
Create
Createhistogram
histogramusing
using
weighting
weightingfactors
factors--weight
weight
according
accordingto
tofraction
fractionof
oftotal
total
source
sourcearea
area
Quick
Quickvisualization
visualizationof
ofpdf?
pdf?
Use
Useconcentric
concentriccircle
circle
approach
approach--lets
letsyou
yousee
see
basic
basicshape
shapeof
ofpdf
pdfquickly
quickly
NM
log NM
log M
Mean
Meanannual
annual rate
rate
of
ofexceedance
exceedance
MM ==NNMM //TT
log M
Return
Returnperiod
period
(recurrence
(recurrenceinterval)
interval)
TTRR ==11/
/MM
0.01
100 yrs
0.001
1000 yrs
log TR
log M
10a
Gutenberg-Richter
Gutenberg-Richter
Recurrence
RecurrenceLaw
Law
log
logMM==aa--bM
bM
log TR
m > mo
m = 148 /yr
TR = 0.0067 yr
M=7
m = 16.2
TR = 0.062
M=8
m = 1.78
TR = 0.562
M = 12
m = 0.437
TR = 2.29
M
M>> 12
12every
everytwo
twoyears?
years?
1 exp[ ( m max m o )]
1 exp[ ( m max m o )]
Mmax
Geologic data
Mmax
Characteristic
Earthquake
Recurrence
Law
ln Y
Y = Y*
ln Y
M = M*
R = R*
log R
Mmax
ln Y
ln Y
Y = Y*
M = M*
R = R*
log R
M
Then
P [N 0] P [N 1] P [N 2] P [N 3] ... P [n ]
1 P [N 0 ]
1 e t
ln(1 p)
0.0021
50
TR = 2475 yrs
fR(r)
Source-site
Source-sitedistance
distancepdf
pdf
Size
fM(m)
Magnitude
Magnitudepdf
pdf
Effects
Timing
P = 1 - e-t
Poisson
Poissonmodel
model
Attenuation
Attenuation
relationship
relationship
including
including
standard
standarderror
error
B1] + P[A
B2] + + P[A
P[A] = P[A
B N]
B2
B1
A
B4
B3
B5
Total
Total
Probability
Probability
Theorem
Theorem
( X)dx
y * i P [Y y * | m, r ] f Mi (m ) f Ri (r )dmdr
i 1
y * i P [Y y * | m j , r k ] f Mi (m j ) f Ri (r k )mr
i 1 j 1 k 1
y * i P [Y y * | m j , r k ]P [M m j ]P [R r k ]
i 1 j 1 k 1
All
Allpossible
possibledistances
distancesare
are
considered
considered--contribution
contributionof
of
each
eachisisweighted
weightedby
byits
its
probability
probabilityof
ofoccurrence
occurrence
NS NM NR
y * i P [Y y * | m j , r k ]P [M m j ]P [R r k ]
i 1 j 1 k 1
All
Allsites
sitesare
are
considered
considered
All
Allpossible
possibleeffects
effectsare
are
considered
considered--each
eachweighted
weighted
by
byits
itsconditional
conditionalprobability
probability
of
ofoccurrence
occurrence
All
Allpossible
possiblemagnitudes
magnitudesare
are
considered
considered--contribution
contributionof
of
each
eachisisweighted
weightedby
byits
its
probability
probabilityof
ofoccurrence
occurrence
rN R
r1
m1 m2 m3
mNM
ln Y
Y = y*
r1
r2
log R
r3
rN
rN R
r1
m1 m2 m3
mN M
rN R
r1
m1 m2 m3
mN M
y*
log y*
log TR
rN R
Seismic
Hazard
Curve
Plot
r1
m1 m2 m3
y*
mN M
log y*
amax
y*
Seismic hazard
curve shows the
mean annual rate of
exceedance of a
particular ground
motion parameter. A
seismic hazard curve
is the ultimate result
of a PSHA.
log TR
log TR
log amax
log TR
log amax
Probability of exceeding
amax = 0.30g in a 50 yr
period?
P = 1 - e-t
= 1 - exp[-(0.001)(50)]
= 0.049 = 4.9%
In a 500 yr period?
0.001
P = 0.393 = 39.3%
amax=0.30g
log TR
log amax
0.0021
475 yrs
amax=0.21g
Contribution of sources
log TR
log amax
Total
2
1
3
amax
log TR
log amax
amax, Sa
log TR
log amax
amax, Sa
2%
2%in
in50
50yrs
yrs
Crustal
Peak
Peakacceleration
acceleration
0.01
amax
Intraplate
0.001
Interplate
0.0001
2%
2%in
in50
50yrs
yrs
SSa(T
= 3 sec)
a(T = 3 sec)
0.01
amax
Crustal
Intraplate
0.001
Interplate
0.0001
Sa
Uniform
Uniform
Hazard
Hazard
Spectrum
Spectrum
8.5
25 km
50 km
75 km
100 km
125 km
150 km
175 km
200 km
8.5
25 km
50 km
75 km
100 km
125 km
150 km
175 km
200 km
M=7.0 at R=75 km
ln y * ln y
ln y
= -1.6
ln Y M=m
2
= -0.8
For
Forlow
lowy*,
y*,most
most
values
valueswill
willbe
benegative
negative
For
Forhigh
highy*,
y*,most
most
values
valueswill
willbe
bepositive
positive
and
andlarge
large
= 1.2
= 2.2
ln Y
Y = y*
r1
r2
log R
r3
rN
Magnitude
Distribution
Mmax
G-R
(0.7)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
Char.
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
G-R
(0.7)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
Char.
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
BJF
(0.5)
A&S
(0.5)
Sum
Sumof
ofweighting
weightingfactors
factors
coming
comingout
outof
ofeach
eachnode
node
must
mustequal
equal1.0
1.0
BJF
Magnitude
Distribution
Mmax
G-R
(0.7)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
Char.
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
G-R
(0.7)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
Char.
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
(0.5)
A&S
(0.5)
Magnitude
Distribution
Mmax
G-R
(0.7)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
Char.
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
G-R
(0.7)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
Char.
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
BJF
(0.5)
A&S
(0.5)
0.5x0.7x0.2 = 0.07
Magnitude
Distribution
Mmax
G-R
(0.7)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
0.07
0.21
0.07
Char.
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
0.03
0.09
0.03
G-R
(0.7)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
0.07
0.21
0.07
Char.
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)
0.03
0.09
0.03
BJF
(0.5)
Final
Finalvalue
valueof
ofYYis
is
obtained
obtainedas
as
weighted
weightedaverage
averageof
of
all
allvalues
valuesgiven
givenby
by
terminal
terminalbranches
branches
of
oflogic
logictree
tree
A&S
(0.5)