Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Romania property
market report
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Insight
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Contents
1
Economic Outlook..................................................................... 1
Residential Market.................................................................... 3
Retail Market................................................................................ 8
Industrial Market...................................................................... 10
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3 Office Market............................................................................... 6
Acknowledgements.......................................................................... 12
Insight
II
1. Economic Outlook
Eurozone
The Eurozone economies have had a positive evolution
overall since mid-2013, even though the turbulence
affecting the region has not completely passed.
Nevertheless, the pace of recovery is rather lower than
expectations and therefore concerns over the medium
and long term evolution of the regional economies
persist. Fears concerning potential deflation in the
EU are often raised as inflation in some of the key
economies entered into the negative zone.
The weakening of the European currency has helped
exporters, while falling energy prices have boosted
economic demand. Conversely, the excessive public
debt of several European economies, growing political
risks coming from the Eastern border of the EU and
the unsolved situation in Greece are the most quoted
reasons for worries.
Lithuania became the 19th country to adopt the
Euro currency on the first day of 2015 in an effort to
consolidate its pro-European orientation, despite the
tense regional climate in relation to Russia.
The austerity measures adopted by most of the
European countries during 2010 - 2012 which included
tax increases, cuts in government expenditures,
budgetary lay-offs and reduced investment have
contributed to rising unemployment rates and negative
reactions from the affected populations. As the global
outlook improves, an easing of these measures is
expected.
Confidence in European real estate markets has
increased over the last 18 months with growing
investment volumes in most countries, improving
occupancy rates and a tendency toward yield
compression.
Romania
The Romanian economy had an encouraging evolution
in 2014 thanks to good industrial production and
growing exports. This represents a continuation of the
2013 trend and provides good prospects for sustainable
evolution in the future. Economists are forecasting a 2.5
2.8% growth in GDP in 2015.
Insight
2011
2012
2013
124.4
131.3
132
140.6
-0.8
1.1
0.6
3.4
3.0
Public Debt
(% of GDP)
30.5
34.7
38.2
39.3
39.7
Exports
( bn)
37.4
45.3
45.1
49.6
52.5
Imports
( bn)
46.9
54.9
54.7
55.3
58.5
Inflation %
6.09
5.8
3.3
3,98
1,07
Unemployment
rate %
7.3
7.4
7.0
7.3
6.4*
GDP ( bn)
2014
rics.org
Outlook
For the coming months we should witness an easing of austerity measures and a
consolidation of the banking sector. Additional depreciation of the euro is anticipated
by economists. On these grounds a sustainable positive trend of the European
economies, including Romania, is likely to be observed. The political evolution in the
eastern part of Europe will remain a source of concern with implications which are hard
to predict.
For Romania, positive progress is expected, mainly on the grounds of domestic
demand, consolidated industrial production and agricultural performance.
There are opportunities available, such as the proper management and absorption of
EU structural funds or key investments in infrastructure (e.g. extending the highways
network, increasing the capacity of Constanta harbour) which could boost the local
economy if implemented.
The anti-corruption measures which were strongly visible in the last year might and
should finally impact on economic performance although it is hard to estimate the
effect of this process in real terms.
Insight
2. Residential Market
The residential market has recorded a positive evolution in the last 12 months in terms
of new building permits, number of delivered units and concluded transactions. If during
2009 2012 the market was unanimous described as a buyers market we see today in
the main cities a more stable market on which competitive projects are being sold during
construction or soon after, at prices which leave little room for negotiation.
Most projects have less than 100 units and are developed primarily on equity. The typical
buyers are local end users as the Investments Funds which were buying large residential
portfolios off plan in 2007-2008 are not considering to invest on the market.
The current evolution of the segment appears to be a healthy and sustainable one, as it
is not based on speculative elements which were distorting the market during the boom
period.
Building Permits Following the 2006-2008 period, the development of new buildings
has dropped significantly by circa 33% over 2 years (2008 2010). This was a natural
contraction reaction of the market which was facing a severe recession.
From 2010 until 2012 the development of new residential buildings still suffered a
negative adjustment although at a considerably slower pace than in the previous years.
At this point we can observe a switch in the trend in 2013 when the number of new
building permits increased by 1.8% year on year. This positive progress continued in
2014 with a 2.7% increase year on year.
In order to have the full picture, one must look also at the number of square metres that
were authorised to be built in each year. We can observe that the evolution in 2013 and
2014 was positive.
Yet, a much more interesting aspect needs to be observed: in 2008 the authorised area
in terms of sq m was of 19,362,342 for a number of 69,011 building permits which
means an average of 281 sq m / building permit. In 2014 this average was only 205
sq m / building permit which is an indicator of the fact that smaller schemes are being
authorised and developed at present.
Authorized SQM
Authorized SQM
25,000,000
19,362,342
20,000,000
15,642,652
15,000,000
10,000,000
8,384,049
12,188,843
8,992,515
10,509,558
8,678,192
8,040,574
7,945,251
5,000,000
2006
2007
2008
Insight
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
rics.org
The most targeted regions for new residential developments remain to be Bucharest /
Ilfov, Cluj, Constanta, Timis, Iasi and Brasov.
Brasov
1,779
1,883
1,969
Iasi
Cluj
1,143
1,488
1,416
2014
1,931
1,843
1,992
Timis
2013
Ilfov
4,175
3,375
2012
5,355
827
765
750
Bucharest
1,584
1,600
1,841
Constanta
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Bucharest
Cluj
Timisoara
Brasov
Iasi
Constanta
Central
locations
1,100 1,200
900 950
850 - 900
800 - 850
800 - 850
900 - 950
Secondary
locations
900 - 1,000
800-850
750 - 800
750 - 800
750 - 800
800-850
The above listed values are averages of both new and old stock (apartments) and are
excluding the prime locations.
There was a visible increase in mortgage loans taken on by the population over the last
two years of +10% in 2013 and +15% in 2014. The preferred financing programme
remains Prima Casa.
The loans granted in the local currency recorded an increase of 90% year on year in
2013 and a remarkable increase of 227% year on year in 2014 due to the NBRs policy
of discouraging loans issued in a foreign currency.
Insight
In autumn 2014 the Prima Casa government programme saw a high increase
compared to the same period from 2013 (52% year on year increase) with the total loan
amount increasing from 174 mn to 278 mn (59% year on year increase).
RON 25,000,000
EUR
RON
RON
20,000,000
RON
15,000,000
RON
10,000,000
RON
5,000,000
RON
0
2012
2013
2014
Demand
For affordability reasons the most sought after properties remain studios, followed by
two and three room apartments. Only 6% of the loans issued through the Prima Casa
programme are targeting apartments with more than four rooms.
11%
Studio
30%
2
rooms
3
rooms
51%
4+ rooms
The vast majority of loans granted through the Prima Casa programme are below
50,000. It is evident that most buyers are targeting units that can fit into the Prima Casa
Programme, which in general refers to units with average areas of 60 sq m net internal
area and acquisition prices of up to 60,000.
24%
32%
19%
Source: FNGCIMM
Insight
rics.org
3. Office Market
The office segment remained active throughout 2014
continuing and exceeding the trend set in 2013.
Occupancy rates improved and rents were relatively
stable as new spaces were delivered on the market.
The segment remains highly appealing for institutional
investors looking to invest in prime assets, although
the supply is still scarce. The owners of prime office
buildings prefer not to sell as there are few investment
alternatives that could generate the same kind of
returns with similar risk rates.
Bucharest remains the most active market in the office
sector followed by Cluj Napoca, Iasi Timisoara and
Brasov.
The total existing stock of modern office space in
Bucharest currently stands at 2.06 mn sq m (gross
leasable area, class A and B) of which circa 140,000 sq
m was delivered in 2014. An additional 120,000 sq m of
office space is expected to be delivered by the end of
2015.
Rents
The headline rental levels for prime offices in Bucharest
have remained stable at around 18.5/sq m/month. In
the central business districts, monthly rents are in the
range of 16-18 /sq m (Piata Victoriei) and 14-16 /
sq m (Calea Floreasca/Barbu Vacarescu). In Dimitrie
Pompeiu area the rents are slightly lower, in the range
of 11-13/sq m. In these areas the vacancy rates are
below 10%. Further out, in Pipera area (away from the
immediate access to the subway) the rents are lower
(8-10/sq m) and the vacancy rates are higher, closer to
20%.
City
Bucharest
16-18.5
Cluj Napoca
13-14.5
Iasi
12.5-14
Timisoara
12-14
Brasov
11-12
Leasing Activity
2014 saw the highest level of take-up recorded on
the local market, with total transaction volumes over
300,000 sq m, representing a 22% increase year
on year. The number of pre-leasing contracts also
registered a record high and tripled in volume compared
with 2013. This also reflects in increased development
activity on the market. Conversely, the number of
renegotiation & renewal transactions dropped by 27%.
Approximately 270,000 sq m of office space was leased
in new contracts (excluding renegotiations & renewals)
in 2014. This figure will most likely be exceeded in 2015,
as more than 25,000 sq m was already leased in the
first months of the year.
Insight
Top leases concluded in 2014 (leased areas > 2,500 sq m; new contracts only)
Tenant
Tenant field
Building
Area - sq m
Q1
Intesa SanPaolo
Bank
banking
3,500
Q1
Endava*
IT&C
4,500
Q1
Schneider
Electric
services
3,100
Q1
Huawei
IT&C
Bucharest One
2,500
Q1
Vodafone *
IT&C
Bucharest One
16,000
Q2
Yardi
services
3,000
Q2
Orange
Romania
IT&C
13,700
Q2
Allianz
insurance
3,500
3,000
Q2
Siemens
IT&C
Q2
Kelloggs
FMCG
2,500
4,000
Q3
DB Schenker*
logistics
Q3
Romanian
International
Bank
banking
3,500
Q3
Genpact
outsourcing
3,000
Q3
Telus
outsourcing
6,000
Q4
Telekom
Romania *
IT&C
Globalworth Campus /
Bucharest
25,000
Q4
Ponderas
Medical &
Pharma
8,000
Q4
1&1 Internet
Development
IT&C
Sky Tower
3,473
Q4
Lowe Romania
Media &
Advertising
2,650
* Prelease
The IT&C sector, together with outsourcing companies accounted for more than 40%
of newly rented spaces in 2014, which is an increase compared with 2013 when this
sector accounted for circa. 35% of the total take-up.
Investment Activity
The most appealing real estate investment product today in Romania appears to be
prime office buildings offering good covenant strengths (blue chip tenants, long-term
leases ideally with no break options, good technical specifications). Yet, there are still few
properties available for sale that can meet these requirements.
Two key office transactions were closed by Globalworth Real Estate in 2014. One is the
acquisition of Nusco Tower for 46 mn and the second is the acquisition of Green Court
One for 44 mn. The prime yield currently stands at 8%-8.25%.
Outlook
A positive evolution of the sector is expected for the coming months, including the level of
take-up, enhanced occupancy rates and further stabilisation of the current market rents.
Insight
rics.org
4. Retail Market
Retailers continued to expand their networks, although
at a slower pace compared to 2013. Carrefour, Kaufland,
Lidl, Mega Image and Penny Market remained the most
active players over the last 12 months with a positive
outlook for the coming period.
Conversely, the stock of shopping centrescentres
and retail parks reached a record low with only three
schemes delivered: Shopping City Trgu-Jiu (27,000 sq
m), Vulcan Shopping Center, Bucharest (25,000 sq m)
and Auchan Tricodava (20,000 sq m).
We notice therefore the expansion and consolidation of
the local operation of several key players and a more
reserved attitude from developers.
Nevertheless the new supply announced for 2015 will
far exceed the performance of 2014, with Phase I of
Coresi Shopping Resort (Brasov) already delivered in
March (45,000 sq m), Mega Mall (Bucharest) soon to
be completed (70,000 sq m) and also the extension of
several existing shopping centres.
DIY segment
The DIY market was particularly affected by turbulence
in the last couple of years with the Bricostore operations
being sold in 2013 to British group Kingfisher for 13 mn. In
2014 it was the turn of the Austrian group BauMax and the
German groups Praktiker and OBI to face a similar situation.
Thus, BauMax renounced its local operations, which were
taken over by the French DIY retailer Leroy Merlin in a deal
estimated at circa 17 mn. Praktiker was taken over by
Search Chemicals, a company controlled by the Turkish
businessman Omer Susli and will continue to operate under
Praktiker brand. OBI closed its local units with some of the
spaces left vacant by the German group being leased by
Jumbo, a Greek retailer of toys and decorations.
Insight
Rents
For schemes which are performing well, rents were relatively stable over the last 18 months.
Type
Size
(GLA m)
Prime
shopping
centre
Secondary
shopping
centre
Shopping centres
Food Anchors
>5,000
12-14
8-12
7-10
5-8
Anchors
>1,500
10-12
8-10
8-10
6-9
700-1500
14-18
12-16
10-14
7-10
Medium Size
Units
250-700
25-35
15-20
12-20
12-15
Standard Unit
50 - 250
40-60
25-35
20-35
15-25
Food Court
40-150
20-25
10-20
10-14
n/a
Leisure &
Entertainment
1,5003,000
8-12
5-10
8-12
4-8
Retail
Park
Investment Transactions
The key retail investment transactions of 2014 were the acquisition of 12 retail schemes
anchored by Auchan hypermarkets for approximately 260 mn and the acquisition of
Promenada shopping centre by NEPI from Raiffeisen Evolution for 148 mn. Previously
(December 2013) NEPI acquired City Park Constanta shopping centre from Neocity in
an 81 mn transaction.
Several retail schemes with a poorer market position changed owners in 2014: Equest
Balkan Properties sold Vitantis Bucharest (36,000 sq m) to Revetas Capital and Moldova
Mall (9,000 sq m) to Afaredo Limited (Gheorghe Iaciu), Cometex (Dan Ostahie) sold
Aurora Mall Buzau and a smaller retail scheme in Alba Iulia to NEPI. This trend is likely
to be visible in 2015, with two new transactions already recorded until March: GTC sold
Galeria Buzau (14,000 sq m) to Eurosting and Pradera sold Galeria Comerciala Militari
(3,600 sq m) to Carrefour. Other transactions on the retail market include:
The acquisition of the former OBI unit located in Sibiu by the Germany DIY chain
Hornbach, from CA Immo and Oasis;
Jumbo bought the unit which it anchors in Pitesti from Rolast for approximately 5 mn;
Carrefour bought its unit in the future Park Lake Plaza for approximately 15 mn.
Outlook
The sector will remain active and an increase in transactional activity is anticipated for
the coming months.
Beside investors looking at Romanian market, international retailers showed interest in
opening stores either directly or via franchise.
For instance, in 2015 retailers like Debenhams will return to the market with a different
franchise partner, Pepco will open a large network of stores, Spanish sport retailer
Decimas, luxury brand Marc Cain, LPP group announced aggressive expansion and
there are other large international retailers to come.
Insight
rics.org
Prime
properties
Secondary
properties
3.2 - 4
2.5-3
0.5-0.75
0.25-0.5
3-5 years
1-3 years
Vacancy rate
< 10%
10%-20%
Investment yield
9-10%
10-11%
Industry
The industrial sector contributes roughly 30% to
the countrys GDP with growing prospects for the
coming years. Growth is driven by new investments
targeting primarily the automotive sector. The value
of new investments in production facilities (delivered
or under-construction in 2014) exceeds 250mn, and
more than 50% of this amount represents investments
from companies providing services to the automotive
industry).
In recent years several regional cities have made strong
efforts to attract and promote themselves as a viable
option for manufacturers. Cities such as Cluj, Sibiu,
Ploiesti, Timisoara, Craiova and Brasov already have
the basic infrastructure required for industrial activities.
Consequently, new production facilities were delivered
in these locations in the past years, while others are in
different phases of construction. Other cities such as
Braila or Bistrita which were less appealing for investors
Insight
10
Cluj
Sibiu
Ploiesti
Timisoara
Craiova
Brasov
11
Insight
Bistrita
Outlook
There is a range of high quality premises available for
the dynamic development of the logistics and industrial
sector in the coming months. We see interest in
speculative developments, which indicates a positive
future evolution of this sector in 2015-2016.
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Acknowledgments
RICS Romania would like to thank all of the following
professionals who have contributed to this market report.
Oana Rucareanu MRICS, Head of Valuation | Eurobank Property Services
David Howard MRICS, Managing Director | Winterhill Romania
Carmen Ravon Head of Retail Agency | Jones Lang LaSalle
Rodica Tarcavu Head of Industrial Department | DTZ Echinox
Ioana Simion Valuation & Advisory Division | The Advisers / Knight Frank
Elena Morariu Valuation & Advisory Division | The Advisers / Knight Frank
Dan Popete MRICS, Head of Valuation | Marfin Bank
Insight
12
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