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Institut de recherche sur la biologie de linsecte (IRBI), CNRS UMR 7261, Universit
Franois
Rabelais de Tours, Parc de Grandmont, 37200 Tours, France
2
Research Centre for Psychology, School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen
Mary
University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, United Kingdom
3
UPMC Univ Paris 06, UMR 1272, Physiologie de l'Insecte Signalisation et Communication,
F-78026, Versailles, France
Versailles,
France
5
Centre for Biological Diversity, School of Biology, University of St Andrews, Fife KY16
9TH,
United Kingdom
for : Evolution
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Abstract
Fishers mechanism of sexual selection (Fisher 1915; 1930; 1958) has dominated biological
thought on the genetics of mate choice over the past 40 years. The mechanism is central to
most sexual selection models (Prum 2010) and has been formally modelled on numerous
occasions beginning in the early 1980s (ODonald 1980; Lande 1981; Kirkpatrick 1982;
Bateson 1983; Andersson 1994; Mead and Arnold 2004; Andersson and Simmons 2006;
Kuijper et al. 2012). Fisher described the process by outlining several discrete steps: First,
specific female preferences and male traits originate in a population due to genetic drift and
founder events or because they are favored in a context outside of sexual selection. The
resulting non-random matings generate an accumulating additive genetic covariance (COVA)
between genes that affect the preferred male trait and the female preference. When strong,
this covariance can generate unstable evolutionary conditions that cause rapid exaggeration
(or diminution) of both trait and preference. Fisher explained this result as a geometric
progression and termed it runaway selection. He emphasized that runaway selection
would not be expected to produce infinite trait elaboration, and that the process must
eventually be checked by opposing selection pressures.
Trait-preference genetic covariance may simply represent an emergent property of
sexual selection, as all that is required for its appearance is additive genetic variance (VA) for
traits that bias mating success and for preferences for such traits (Pomiankowski and
Sheridan 1994a; Bakker and Pomiankowski 1995). Nonetheless, COVA can play a special
role in the Fisher process by counteracting natural selection that prevents exaggeration of
the trait and preference, thereby determining whether evolving populations experience
unstable runaway dynamics (Lande 1981, Kirkpatrick 1982). While some authors suggested
that COVA is rarely strong enough to overcome direct selection on mating preferences (e.g.
Kirkpatrick and Barton 1997), others claimed an important role for COVA even when
preferences are costly (Pomiankowski et al. 1991; Day 2000; Hall et al. 2000). Because
COVA is generally implicated in modulating the evolutionary dynamics of sexual selection
under the Fisherian mechanism, detecting and measuring COVA merits special attention:
The presence and strength of trait-preference COVA represents a key test of whether the
genetic correlations between sexually-selected male traits and female preferences and
collectively generated considerable enthusiasm for the Fisherian mechanism (Pomiankowski
and Sheridan 1994a). But again, suggestions of problems owing to a correlated response to
selection experimental procedure, small sample sizes, and equivocal results (Breden et al.
1994, Breden and Hornaday 1994) and rebuttals (Pomiankowski and Sheridan 1994b)
surfaced quickly. Despite these concerns, the reports vindicated the Fisherian mechanism
for many biologists, and the trait-preference graphs whose trajectory slopes reflect the
strength of COVA remained a fixture in behavioral ecology.
Several factors compel us to revisit the classical problem of trait-preference COVA.
First, nearly 20 additional studies of intersexual genetic correlation have been conducted on
various insects, fish and birds since the original reports, and these have used breeding
designs or pedigree analyses of wild populations (Table 1). Second, we now have a more
mature appreciation for mate choice as a dynamic, multivariate process (Chenoweth and
Blows 2006; Chenoweth and McGuigan 2010). This characteristic of mate choice may
greatly reduce genetic correlation in spite of the presence within a population of VA for a
male trait and a female preference. A third, and perhaps most pressing, reason for calling
attention to the genetic correlation issue is that it is likely to be confused with recent findings
on trait-preference correlation within the context of species recognition and speciation (Shaw
et al. 2011; Bousquet et al. 2012; Wiley et al. 2012; McNiven and Moehring 2013). These
findings relied on molecular genetic investigations, and they revealed either pleiotropy or
tight physical linkage between trait and preference genes. Such relationships are strong
genetic correlations, but they do not necessarily arise nor are they specifically maintained by
the linkage disequilibrium created by non-random mate choice within a species.
We undertook a formal meta-analysis of the studies that estimated trait-preference
COVA over the past 30 years. Our main objective was to evaluate the prevalence and levels
of COVA among animal species and thus clarify the potential operation of Fishers
mechanism in the evolution of sexually selected traits. To avoid potential confusion, we
distinguish between the general Fisherian mechanism, as described above, and the subset
of this mechanism where COVA is strong enough to generate an unstable, runaway situation.
While we acknowledge that runaway selection may arise temporarily on certain occasions,
our main focus is on the general Fisherian mechanism as a means of generating and
sustaining mate choice for genetic benefits. We found that the overall incidence and level of
trait-preference COVA are weak. The global pattern of COVA is consistent with publication
bias, although our analysis cannot definitively conclude that it is caused by publication bias.
These results present evolutionary biologists with a significant dilemma, as female
preferences for exaggerated male traits are regularly observed in nature. Moreover,
heritability of these traits and preferences, as well as evidence for indirect benefits (e.g.
Gilburn and Day 1994; Jones et al. 1998; Rundle et al. 2007; Prokop et al. 2012), has often
been documented. We address this dilemma by discussing several explanations that may
account for the curious absence of COVA where it is predicted by the Fisher process, as well
as the apparent presence of the Fisher process in cases where COVA is not detected.
Methods
STUDY SELECTION AND INCLUSION CRITERIA
We initiated our survey of studies that addressed trait-preference COVA by searching the
Web of Science using genetic correlation and mate choice, genetic correlation and
sexual selection, genetic covariance and mate choice, and genetic covariance and
sexual selection as topic combinations. We supplemented this survey with a similar inquiry
using the Google Scholar search engine to find studies presented only in books, book
chapters, dissertations, and other sources not included in the Web of Science. This latter
search yielded one additional result, a recent doctoral dissertation. In both searches we
retained only those studies that pertained to inter-sexual trait-preference correlation, and we
then checked the references cited by each retained study as well as later articles that cited
the retained studies. These checks revealed two studies that were not detected by our four
combinations of search topics. Additional searches using the terms Fisherian selection,
META-ANALYSIS
Our screening ultimately retained 20 studies distributed among insects (13), fish (6) and
birds (1) (Table 1). Most of these studies reported estimates of trait-preference genetic
correlation as opposed to COVA, and collectively they evaluated different sorts of traits that
were measured by various units. Thus, in our meta-analysis we only determined summary
statistics for the genetic correlation and did not conduct other tests. Six of the retained
studies relied on the correlated response to selection approach, all of which were completed
prior to 1995. Thirteen studies computed the trait-preference genetic correlation directly
from a breeding design, and one study computed the correlation from pedigree analysis of a
wild population. We analyzed the genetic correlations reported in these studies via
Comprehensive Meta Analysis version 2 (Biostat, Inc.; Englewood, New Jersey, U.S.A.; see
Borenstein et al. 2009), which estimated an overall correlation value, calculated as a
weighted mean, and its 95% confidence limits. Effect sizes of the individual studies,
represented by either standard error or sample size, provided the weights for determining
the overall correlation value. We applied the programs random effects model (DerSimonian
and Laird 1986), rather than its fixed effects model, for estimating means and confidence
limits. The fixed effect option assumes equal effect sizes across all studies considered.
Because we had no reason to assume a priori that effect sizes would be homogeneous in
our dataset, we deemed it more appropriate to implement the random effects option which
allows effect sizes to vary from study to study (Borenstein et al. 2009). We note that overall
correlation coefficients determined as a simple average generally underestimate the true
mean when it is positive (Silver and Dunlap 1987). To reduce this bias, we converted all
correlation coefficients with Fishers z transformation, determined the mean and confidence
limits of these transformed values, and then back-transformed these Fishers z values to an
overall correlation coefficient and its confidence limits. Because the Fisherian mechanism
specifically predicts a positive genetic correlation between a trait and a preference, we paid
particular attention to the direction of the correlation in the each study. In our meta-analysis
we listed the correlation direction of a study as positive if it was coincident with the Fisherian
prediction and negative if it was opposite. For example, in the beetle Onthophagus taurus,
Simmons and Kotiaho (2007) reported a negative genetic correlation between sperm length
and size of the female spermatheca. But larger spermatheca favour shorter sperm in this
species, and we therefore designate the inter-sexual genetic correlation as positive in
direction (Figure 1a).
Table 1 lists one study, that on the seaweed fly Coelopa frigida by Gilburn and Day
(1994), not retained for the formal meta-analysis but which deserves consideration. Data on
traits and preferences in C. frigida were collected from only three genotypes (karyotypes),
making the effect size very low. However, five different populations were studied, and flies
were sampled extensively in each population. We discuss the findings relevant to traitpreference genetic correlation in the Results below.
Nine of the studies retained in our meta-analysis included two or more subgroups that either
represented different populations of the same species, different generations of the same
population, replicates of the same population reared under the same or different
environmental conditions, different scoring protocols during experimentation, or correlated
responses to selection imposed in different directions. As in the estimation of the overall
correlation, we applied the random effects model in combining subgroups within a study.
We determined four basic estimates of the overall genetic correlation: 1) an estimate that
treated all 19 studies as distinct samples; 2) an estimate that grouped separate studies of
the same species as a single sample, a measure that reduced the total number of samples
to 16; 3) an estimate treating all studies as distinct samples but not including two studies
(species) in which the reported VA or heritability (hs2) for female preference was very low,
effectively rendering trait-preference COVA negligible by definition; and 4) an estimate similar
to the previous one (3) except that separate studies of the same species were grouped and
treated as a single sample.
We considered an additional estimate in which retained studies would have been
adjusted for phylogeny (Chamberlain et al. 2012) based on the assumption that samples of
very closely related species may not be independent. Whereas three species of Drosophila
(D. mercatorum, D. montana, D. simulans) appeared among our retained studies, these
three are not situated on the same or even neighboring branches in current phylogenies of
Drosophila (e.g. Van der Linde et al. 2010). Thus, we would not have been justified in
grouping the reported data (Ikeda and Maruo 1982; Ritchie et al. 2005; Ingleby et al. 2013a)
as if they represented separate studies of the same species, or in modifying their relative
weights by some comparative formula. Because our other 16 retained studies are
distributed widely among insects and vertebrates, we judged that other adjustments for
phylogeny were neither warranted nor possible.
PUBLICATION BIAS
We examined whether the results of each of our four meta-analyses reflected potential
publication bias by implementing two methods from Comprehensive Meta-Analysis version
2, Duval and Tweedies trim and fill (Duval and Tweedie 2000) and Eggers regression
intercept (Egger et al. 1997). For the first method, correlation values in each study were
converted to Fishers z statistic, and a funnel plot was then generated showing standard
error vs. Fishers z statistic for each of the studies included in our analysis. If this plot of
observed studies was not symmetrical around the overall z statistic, imputed studies were
added to make the funnel symmetrical, and the overall z statistic and its standard error were
recalculated using both the observed and imputed studies in the new funnel plot. Again, the
programs random effects model was applied to determine the imputed studies and the new
overall z statistic and standard error. We applied Eggers regression intercept to determine
the significance of asymmetry observed in the original funnel plot. Publication bias analysis
was conducted because of the likelihood that studies finding negative results, i.e. an
absence of trait-preference genetic correlation, were not published, particularly if their effect
size was small.
Results
For all four estimates of the overall trait-preference genetic correlation, our meta-analyses
revealed low values that were nonetheless significantly greater than 0 (Table 2; Fig. 1a).
However, our subsequent analyses in which we examined the possibility that publication
bias had influenced these estimates showed that none of them could be confirmed as
significantly positive values following adjustment by Duval and Tweedies method (Table 2;
Fig. 1b) and corroboration of this method by Eggers regression intercept (Table 2). We
acknowledge that these latter analyses can only indicate that results are consistent with
publication bias. That is, asymmetry in our funnel plots of standard error vs. Fishers z
10
statistic values may conceivably reflect other biases inherent in the studies retained from the
survey.
Consideration of the study on the seaweed fly Coelopa frigida by Gilburn and Day
(1994),
listed in Table 1 but not retained in the formal meta-analysis, is consistent with the overall
findings presented above. A positive regression of female preference on the male trait
among karyotypes was found in only one of the five populations sampled. These results
suggest that an overall trait-preference genetic correlation in C. frigida, given sufficient
sampling of genotypes within the populations, would most likely not be positive.
We note that a significantly positive genetic correlation was found in only three of the
species retained in the survey (meta-analysis 2; overall correlation for species was
determined by combining the separate studies using the random effects model noted
above). These three showed no taxonomic trend, as they include a moth (Utetheisa
ornatrix), a beetle (Onthophagus taurus), and a fish (Gasterosteus aculeata). Two additional
species exhibited a positive genetic correlation in one population (study) but not another, or
in one generation but not the subsequent one. This latter case, female preference for male
song length in a field cricket, merits further discussion: A broad-sense genetic correlation
determined from animals that had mated in a natural population in the field was positive and
significant (0.51 0.17; Gray and Cade 1999b), whereas a narrow-sense genetic correlation
determined from the following generation who were paired in the laboratory was negative
and non-significant (-0.20 0.42). A 50% reduction in trait-preference COVA each
generation is expected once laboratory breeding wherein the experimenter decides who
pairs with who is started (Bakker and Pomiankowski 1995; Bakker 1999; Gray and Cade
1999a), but the observed shift to a negative value is not. In summary, no thorough study,
having a large effect size owing to replicated sampling via multiple subgroups, exhibited a
significantly positive trait-preference genetic correlation.
11
Discussion
The low incidence of significant trait-preference genetic correlation, and the estimates
adjusted for publication bias showing that overall correlation values might not be significantly
different from 0, are surprising in light of theoretical expectations (Roff and Fairbairn 2014).
Either the measurement of trait-preference COVA is fraught with so much difficulty that
biologists have been unable to detect its presence, or the absence we report is real.
Accurate estimates of trait-preference genetic correlation are admittedly difficult to attain, yet
many biologists have recognized their importance for the Fisherian mechanism, and the
studies in our meta-analysis show that more than a few have made careful determinations of
the parameter. Since 1995, studies have avoided the correlated response to selection
approach, and most have also measured genetic correlations in natural populations or in the
laboratory immediately after animals were collected from the field. Moreover, our metaanalysis shows that the more thorough studies were less, not more, likely to report positive
findings on trait-preference genetic correlation.
Many, if not all, of the traits in our analysis may be under natural as well as sexual
selection. This probability should not be surprising given that even landmark traits long
associated with Fisherian runaway selection, e.g. male peacock plumage (Petrie 1994; cf.
Callaway 2011), have been shown to be associated with a survival advantage. We
emphasize that the Fisherian mechanism and other sexual selection mechanisms are not
mutually exclusive. Whereas the Fisherian mechanism is sufficient to explain rapid evolution
of traits with no direct benefits, it may also be both a cause and a consequence of other
mechanisms of sexual selection, e.g. good genes, compatible genes, or direct benefits.
The above points suggest that the inconsistency observed between empirical
findings and the theoretical expectation is neither an artifact of limited sampling nor results
from studying traits where Fisherian selection would not be expected. In the following
sections we consider several explanations that may account for the apparent absence of
trait-preference COVA.
12
13
The multivariate nature of the mate choice process can interfere further with traitpreference genetic correlation. Male traits normally include several parameters that
influence females, a complexity that is quite evident in chemical signals in Drosophila spp.,
where a bouquet of cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) often influences courtship success.
Female response to CHCs does not include separate preference traits for each compound
but rather appears to be represented by one, or only a few, composite preference functions
vectors in n-dimensional CHC space (McGuigan et al. 2008). Importantly, this composite
female preference function might not align with the composite function representing the suite
of male CHCs in the population (McGuigan et al. 2008; Fisher et al. 2009). Disagreement
between preference and trait functions possibly reflects other factors influencing CHC
composition, such as the contribution of these compounds to desiccation resistance (Ingleby
et al. 2013b). Additionally, multiple signals transmitted in various modalities ultimately
contribute to a males mating success. Unless males with the most preferred chemicals also
excel in acoustic, visual, and tactile signaling, a trait-preference genetic correlation for CHCs
will be unlikely.
14
Drosophila serrata have uncovered evidence that they can alter the dynamics of sexual
selection, in addition to themselves evolving (Petfield et al. 2005; Chenoweth et al. 2010).
Social effects are also likely to shape the expression of female choice, as shown by several
studies on field crickets (Judge 2010; Bailey and Zuk 2012; Kasumovic et al. 2012;
Tinghitella 2014). Such social effects on female mating decisions can generate IGEs that
affect the coevolutionary dynamics of sexually selected traits and preferences and reduce
the importance of genetic covariance in setting up unstable runaway dynamics.
A similar model developed around the theme of cultural niche construction (Rendell
et al. 2011) suggests that the Fisher process is an example of a general class of phenomena
in which positive feedback arises between two traits within a population and leads to the
rapid evolution of both. In this model one trait that is culturally transmitted is statistically
associated and coevolves with a non-culturally transmitted one. Within the context of sexual
selection, these traits might be a culturally acquired or imprinted female preference and
alleles for a male ornament, respectively. Importantly, the process can select for a costly
non-cultural trait if that trait confers an enhanced ability to deal with the environment created
by the cultural trait; e.g. an expensive male ornament that is nonetheless favored by the
prevailing, and culturally transmitted, female preference (cf. Danchin et al. 2013).
IMPLICATIONS
The dynamic, multivariate nature of mate choice implies that trait-preference genetic
correlation ought not to be strongly predicted, which is consistent with our meta-analysis
findings. However, mate choice without tangible, direct benefits is often observed in natural
populations, and a recent report suggests that the Fisherian mechanism may frequently
operate in such situations (Prokop et al. 2012). Therefore, we are forced to reconcile these
general observations of mate choice with an incidence of COVA that is quite low and an
overall COVA value that is small and possibly insignificant. Other than the species in which
IGEs or cultural niches might operate and permit Fisher-like processes to function in the
absence of strong COVA, how does mate choice occur if the Fisherian mechanism does not
15
regularly function? In many species mate choice may simply represent orientation toward
those signals and ornaments that evoke greater afferent activity in female receivers, the socalled sensory bias mechanism. However, where trait and preference VA but not
intersexual COVA are observed (e.g. Ritchie et al. 2005; Zhou et al. 2011), other likely
explanations are interference due to sexual conflict (Ritchie et al. 2005) or that the Fisher
process does occur but only intermittently. An irregular occurrence of the Fisher process
would be consistent with observations in several studies (e.g. Gilburn and Day 1994; Zhou et
al. 2011) in Table 1 wherein genetic covariance was found in one subgroup, representing a
particular geographic location or environmental rearing condition, but not elsewhere.
Our findings and interpretations point toward areas that demand further attention.
More information on the potential influences of migration and environmental fluctuation on
sexual selection, and how the intensity and direction of mate choice may change over time
and between neighboring populations (e.g. Gosden and Svensson 2008) would definitely be
helpful. Similarly, we need more extensive incorporation of these potential influences and
changes in modeling the Fisher process. At present it is not clear whether irregular
occurrences of the Fisher process and the resulting spikes in COVA in between migration
events, or prior to and during episodes of runaway selection would be sufficient to sustain
exaggerated traits and preferences over the long term. The role of migration is now often
considered in models of the sexual selection process (e.g. Getty 2014; Holman and Kokko
2014; Woolf et al. 2014). Additionally, we note that several earlier models incorporating
migration and environmental heterogeneity reported that these features would favor the
evolution of mate choice by conserving the trait, and preference, VA that are necessary for
sexual selection to function (Day 2000; Proulx 2001). But these models also specified that
mate choice evolution may be highest at intermediate levels of migration and heterogeneity.
Thus, their predictions may not be at odds with the perspective presented here (Fig. 2) in
which a high level of migration and heterogeneity can disrupt linkage disequilibrium, thereby
reducing COVA and weakening sexual selection.
16
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We thank A. Gilburn, A. Houde and N. Ratterman for answering our queries on details of
their studies, and F. Barbosa, M. Goubault, D. Gray, E. Herniou, M. Ritchie, V. Terwilliger
and B. Visser for their input on previous versions of the manuscript. Four anonymous
referees and the reviewing editor all provided detailed and thoughtful feedback that improved
the manuscript. Many ideas expressed here were inspired by research funded by the
Agence Nationale de la Recherche of France (contrat ANR-07-BLAN-0113-01; project
GENARCH), the U.S. National Science Foundation (grant IOB-0516634) and the U.K.
Natural Environment Research Council (NE/G014906/1).
17
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Table 1. Studies retained for meta-analysis of intersexual trait-preference additive genetic correlation
Reference
Chorthippus brunneus
Gryllus texensis
(formerly G. integer)
1,2
Teleogryllus oceanicus
Simmons 2004
DeWinter 1992
Group ; species
Insects, Orthoptera
Homoptera
Ribautodelphax imitans
Coleoptera
28
Onthophagus taurus
Achroia grisella
Utetheisa ornatrix
Coelopa frigida
Cyrtodiopsis dalmanni
Drosophila mercatorum
Lepidoptera
1
Diptera
1,3
29
Drosophila Montana
Bakker 1993
Houde 1994
Coloration on male;
h2trait: 3 values from 0.31 to 0.82;
h2pref,: indicated as high but not
specified
Coloration on male
Sepsis cynipsea
Fish
Gasterosteus aculeata
Poecilia reticulate
Pundamilia pundamilia;
30
Birds
2
Ficedula albicollis
Study reported low VA for female preference and therefore was removed from meta-analyses 3 and 4.
Study considered and analyzed only 3 genotypes (karyotypes) and was therefore not included in formal meta-analysis
h2 and H2 are narrow-sense and broad-sense heritability estimates, respectively; values are given as estimate SE when available.
31
Table 2. Results of meta-analyses of intersexual trait-preference additive genetic correlation in species listed in Table 1.
Meta-analysis
Number of
distinct
samples
Eggers regression
intercept with 95%
confidence limits ;
p-value, 2-tailed
19
2. Separate studies of
the same species
treated as part of one
distinct sample
16
17
4. Separate studies of
the same species
treated as part of one
distinct sample ;
studies with low VA for
female preference not
retained
14
32
Q statistic measures heterogeneity of Fishers Z statistic as a function of standard error. See Fig. 1b.
An intercept significantly different from 0 indicates an asymmetrical funnel plot ; p-value is 2-tailed probability that intercept = 0. See Fig. 1b.
33
Fig. 1. a) Forest plot showing point estimates (Xs) for trait-preference intersexual genetic
correlation in 19 retained studies (meta-analysis 1), a point estimate for the overall genetic
correlation reflecting all 19 studies using a random effects model, 95% confidence limits for
these point estimates, and the relative weights (effect sizes, indicated by black boxes) of
each study used to estimate the overall genetic correlation. Details on the studies are given
in Table 1.
Figure 1a
34
b) Funnel plot showing standard error and Fishers Z statistic for each of 19 retained studies
(meta-analysis 1). Observed values are indicated by open circles ; values imputed by Duval
and Tweedies trim and fill method using a random effects model are indicated solid circles.
Point estimate and its 95% confidence limits for the overall Z statistic, which is very similar to
the genetic correlation for values close to 0, are shown at the bottom of the plot; open
diamond reflects observed values only; solid diamond reflects observed and imputed values.
Figure 1b
35
36
resident t1t1p1p1 female and the immigrant male will have a lower level of the additive genetic
covariance between t1 and p1 alleles that had been accumulating in the population because
of non-random mating between t1t1p1p1 females and t1t1p1p1 males (Greenfield and
Rodriguez 2004).
Figure 2
37