A Decision Support System for Evaluating International Student Applications
Peter Haddawy and Nguyen Thi Ngoc Hien
{haddawy@ait.ac.th, st103692@ait.ac.th}
Computer Science and Information Management Program
Asian Institute of Technology
1. Introduction
The Asian Institute of Technology is an
autonomous postgraduate institution
with a highly international student body.
The institute has an enrollment of 2000
students from 45 different countries with
the majority nationality comprising only
35% of the total student body. Each
year we receive applications from
students who have completed previous
bachelors or masters degrees at any one
of approximately 600 different
institutions. This extreme diversity in
applicants for admission makes accurate
evaluation a highly challenging task.
The evaluation of applications has been
traditionally performed by faculty
members who have some degree of
knowledge each particular country’s
educational system. Unfortunately, it is
not always possible to find a faculty
member in each program who has good
knowledge of each country’s system of
higher education. We were thus
motivated to produce a decision support
system to provide a more methodical
approach.
Research on academic performance [3,4]
suggests using student outcome as a
good basis to assess applicants’
qualifications. A performance prediction
model can be built by applying data
mining to available admission and
graduation grade point average data.
Fortunately, AIT has a large database of
information on past and current
applicants. We decided to make use of
this information by applying data mining
techniques to predict student
performance at AIT based on the
information contained in the application.
Decision support systems have been
built to help advisors instruct students in
choosing suitable courses and
appropriate study plans [1,2]. Previous
work on student performance prediction
has used logistic regression to examine
the impact of various factors on student
performance [1]. Bekele and Menzel [5]
used Bayesian networks to predict
mathematics performance of high school
students. Their model categorized
students into three categories: below
satisfactory, satisfactory, and above
satisfactory. The work reported in the
present paper differs from theirs in
highly international nature of the
applicant pool and the more fine grained
prediction.
The rest of this paper is organized as
follows. Section 2 provides background
on Bayesian networks and the
methodology for their application to this
problem. Section 3 presents empirical
evaluation of the prediction model. The
paper ends with conclusions and a
discussion of ongoing and future work.
2. Methodology
A Bayesian network [6] is a graphical
representation of a probability
distribution. It is a directed acyclic
graph in which nodes represent random
variables and links represent
probabilistic influences between the
variables. Probabilistic dependence and
independence are expressed by the
presence or lack of paths between nodes
in the graph. The fact that probabilistic
dependence is encoded in the network
topology in this way permits probability
distributions over large numbers of
random variables to be compactly
represented and permits calculations to
be performed efficiently. Due to the
inherent uncertainty of the performance
prediction problem, we chose to use
Bayesian networks for the modeling
task. Using a probabilistic model has the
advantage that it can later become a
component of a higher level
optimization model.
At AIT coursework is generally
completed within the first year of study.
So we used the grade point average
(GPA) accumulated after the first year as
the dependent variable. The numeric
GPA at AIT ranges from 0 to 4.0, which
is also translated into a letter grade with
values of A, B+, B, C+ and Fail (C or
below). The number of students
classified as Fail is low due to an
institute policy of continuous review of
students and either special tutoring for or
dismissal of students with low grades.
Based on research on student
performance [3, 5] and available
attributes in the admission data, ten
attributes were chosen as predictors of
performance: age, gender, marital status,
nationality, English test score, institute
of the previous degree, major of
previous degree, GPA of the previous
degree, field of study and degree
program (master or doctor) to which the
applicant is applying. The attributes
major and field of study have a large
number of values so they were processed
by clustering the values into groups of
similar majors and similar fields of
study.
The attributes nationality and institute of
the previous degree have large number
of values (86 and 1707, respectively)
without any intrinsic meaning. We thus
decided to transform them into more
meaningful values.
The socio-economic environment can
play a major role in the performance of
students. So we used the World Bank
classification of countries according to
their Gross National Income (GNI) to
group countries into GNI categories of
LIC (Low Income), LMC (Low Middle
Income), NOC (High Income, non-
OECD), OEC (High Income, OECD)
and UMC (Upper Middle Income).
The most important factor concerning
the university of the previous degree is
the quality of the academic programs
there. We gauged this by correlating the
GPA of the previous degree with that
obtained at AIT. If students consistently
enter AIT with somewhat average grades
from a particular university but graduate
with high grades, we take this as
evidence of the high quality of that
institution. We rated institutions on a
scale from 0 to 10.
Experimentation with a number of
different Bayesian network structures
showed that the simple Naïve Bayes
model shown in Figure 2.2 produced the
best results. Predictor attributes are
displayed along the sides and top of the
graph. The model contains two nodes
for the predicted variable CGPA. The
one from which the edges to the other
attributes emanate is a discrete valued
node and the other with the double edge n

is continuous. The continuous CGPA å| a - p |

i =1
i i

represents a set of conditional Gaussian MAE =

n
distributions. This was done in order to
be able to provide a numeric CGPA where ai is the actual CGPA, pi is the
prediction under the limitation that predicted CGPA, and n is the number of
Bayesian networks do not permit data points. The average mean absolute
continuous variables to be parents of error over the three folds was 0.267, or
discrete variables. The model was built about a quarter grade point.
using the Hugin Researcher 6.5
software. When the values of the Actual Predicted Class
predictor variables are specified the Class A B+ B C+ Fail
model provides a probability distribution A 124 240 22 1 0 387
over the predicted letter grades and a B+ 111 612 87 3 0 813
numeric GPA prediction. B 24 251 127 7 0 409
),(/' RI '(*5((
C+ 5 25 35 2 1 68
678'<
Fail 0 9 1 1 0 11
$*( ( 1 * / B6&25( 264 1137 272 14 1 1688
*(1'(5 35( B, 1 6 7 , 7 8 7 ( Table 3.1: Confusion matrix
&*3$
0$5,7$/ 35( B&*3$

*1, 35( B0 $ - 2 5 4. Conclusions and future work

&B*3$
Figure 2.2: Naïve Bayes model for
performance prediction.
3. Evaluation and results
To train and test the model we used
admissions data from 2003 through 2006
consisting of 1386 masters and 302
doctoral students. In the data, the CGPA
had mean value of 3.43 and variance of
0.166. Stratified three-fold cross-
validation was used to evaluate the
model. The data was separated so that
each fold had the same distribution of
grades as the entire data set. To predict
the letter grade, we used the grade with
the maximum probability. The
confusion matrix showing the predicted
versus actual result is shown in Table
3.1. We evaluated the numeric CGPA
prediction using the mean absolute error,
which is defined as
In today’s transnational admissions
environment, educational institutions are
facing the need for a precise and
thoughtful method to evaluate and select
the most qualified applicants graduating
from various institutions in many
countries. Our approach using Bayesian
networks for predicting applicant
performance has the potential to meet
this need. The technique can be applied
at any institution that has a good
database of student and applicant
information.
We are currently working to increase the
accuracy of the model using some ideas
from ensemble classifiers. We are also
adding a component that will
supplement the prediction of student
performance by displaying the past
student who is most similar to the
applicant being evaluated. The reason
for doing this is to increase user
confidence in the system’s predictions.
We are implementing this using case- A Case with Ethiopian Students.
based reasoning, which retrieves past Proc. IASTED International
cases that are similar to the current Conference on Artificial Intelligence
problem being considered. The and Applications , 2005.
challenge here is to define similarity of 6. Finn Jensen, Bayesian Networks and
cases in a way that is consistent with the Decision Graphs, Springer-Verlag,
prediction model. Our approach is to 2002.
use the prediction model itself to
compute the similarity. Finally, we are
working to incorporate the performance
prediction system into an online
admissions processing system being
developed so that the prediction will be
displayed alongside the applicant
information at the time of evaluation for
admission. This will tie into the
institute’s new online application system
(www.ait.ac.th/apply), which permits
students to submit all application
materials over the web.

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