LUZON SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK

Revised Outlook (based on the data as of 27 October 2014)

With Maintenance and Forced Outage

2015 Luzon Outlook for Summer Period

March to June 2015 extended to July

MARCH 2015
9
10
11
12
28- M6 07-13 14-20 21-27

12,769
Dependable Capacity
11,389
Existing Available Capacity (less PO)
9,079
+ Committed Capacity
245
Available Capacity (less PO plus Committed) 9,324
- Estimated Forced Outage
631
Available Capacity (less PO+FO)
8,693
- System Peak Demand
8,210
GROSS RESERVE
483
Req'd Regulating Reserve (RR)
328
Req'd Contingency Reserve (CR)
647
Req'd Dispatchable Reserve (DR)
647
Installed Capacity

NET RESERVE (Gross - RR)

NET RESERVE' (Gross - RR - 647)

12,769
11,389
8,922
245
9,167
631
8,536
8,280
256
331
647
647

12,769
11,389
8,844
245
9,089
631
8,458
8,350
108
334
647
647

12,769
11,389
8,934
295
9,229
631
8,598
8,480
118
339
647
647

13
28-A3

14
04-10

APRIL 2015
15
16
17
18
11-17 18-24 25-M1 02-08

12,769
11,389
8,855
445
9,299
631
8,668
8,110
558
324
647
647

12,769
11,389
8,476
442
8,918
712
8,206
8,290
(84)
332
647
647

12,769 12,769
11,389 11,389
8,751 9,666
442 442
9,193 10,108
712 712
8,481 9,396
8,660 8,730
(179) 666
346 349
647 647
647 647

12,769
11,389
9,676
453
10,129
712
9,417
9,013
404
361
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,732
397
10,129
642
9,488
8,860
628
354
647
647

MAY 2015
19
20
09-15 16-22

12,769
11,389
9,772
397
10,169
642
9,528
8,940
588
358
647
647

12,769
11,389
10,102
397
10,499
642
9,858
9,017
841
361
647
647

21
23-29

22
30-J5

12,769
11,389
10,012
415
10,427
642
9,786
9,000
786
360
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,715
391
10,106
858
9,248
8,790
458
352
647
647

JUNE 2015
23
24
06-12 13-19

12,769
11,389
9,625
391
10,016
858
9,158
8,820
338
353
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,625
391
10,016
858
9,158
8,750
408
350
647
647

25
20-26

26
27-J3

12,769
11,389
9,453
541
9,994
858
9,136
8,640
496
346
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,418
563
9,981
856
9,125
8,680
445
347
647
647

JULY 2015
27
28
29
04-10 11-17 18-24

12,769
11,389
9,238
563
9,801
856
8,945
8,520
425
341
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,304
563
9,867
856
9,011
8,610
401
344
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,324
563
9,887
856
9,031
8,680
351
347
647
647

30
25-31

12,769
11,389
9,224
563
9,787
856
8,931
8,410
521
336
647
647

154 (75) (226) (221) 234 (416) (526) 317 43 273 230 480 426 107 (14) 58 151 97 84 56 3 184
(493) (722) (873) (868) (413) (1,063) (1,173) (330) (604) (374) (417) (167) (221) (540) (661) (589) (496) (550) (563) (591) (644) (463)

New Development: Petron capacity was originally reflected in available capacity at 60MW but Refinery Master Plant will be in full blast by next year thus
the capacity that will be exported to the grid will be reduced to 10 MW.
Note:
Possible Manual Load Dropping on Red Alert Status
Regulating Reserve, Refers to a Generating Unit that assists in Frequency Control by providing automatic Primary and/or Secondary Frequency response, equivalent to 4% of Peak
Demand
2
Contingency Reserve, Generating Capacity that is intended to take care of the loss of the largest Synchronized Generating Unit or the power import from a single Grid
interconnection, whichever is larger. Contingency Reserve in Luzon is 647 MW

Additional Capacity (as of 17 October 2014)

Power Plant

Capacity
(MW)

When
Committed
(2014)

Remarks

Avion

100

July

Moved target operation earlier to 15 April 2015, from

October 2015

Millenium Energy
Inc. (Limay)

36

August

Uprating of Limay CC with additional 36 MW to be

operational by early March 2015

Bauang Rehab

20

August

Uprating with additional 20 MW to be operational by

early March 2015

JG Summit
(Batangas)

60

August

60 MW accumulated SGFs in Pasig, Laguna and

Batangas for verification
Target interconnection, January 2015

Botocan (Laguna)

20

August

Target interconnection of Caliraya-Botocan Line on

December 2014

Millenium Energy
Inc. (Navotas)

100

September

Rehab is on-going
Target Completion: early March 2015

MERALCO ILP

118

October

Registered 155 MW
Ongoing negotiations for 81 MW
50% consideration for both registered and potential

TOTAL

454

LUZON SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK

Revised Outlook (based on the data as of 27 October 2014)

With Maintenance and Forced Outage

With Additional Capacity

2015 Luzon Outlook for Summer Period
March to June 2015 extended to July

MARCH 2015
11
12
14-20 21-27

9
28- M6

10
07-13

12,769
Dependable Capacity
11,389
Existing Available Capacity (less PO)
9,079
+ Committed Capacity
245
Available Capacity (less PO plus Committed) 9,324
- Estimated Forced Outage
631
Available Capacity (less PO+FO)
8,693
- System Peak Demand
8,210
GROSS RESERVE
483
Req'd Regulating Reserve (RR)
328
Req'd Contingency Reserve (CR)
647
Req'd Dispatchable Reserve (DR)
647

12,769
11,389
8,922
245
9,167
631
8,536
8,280
256
331
647
647

12,769
11,389
8,844
245
9,089
631
8,458
8,350
108
334
647
647

154
(493)
354
(139)

(75)
(722)
354
(368)

(226)
(873)
354
(519)

Installed Capacity

NET RESERVE (Gross - RR)

NET RESERVE' (Gross - RR - 647)
Additional Capacity
NET RESERVE'' (Net Res' + Addl Capacity)

APRIL 2015
15
16
11-17 18-24

13
28-A3

14
04-10

12,769
11,389
8,934
295
9,229
631
8,598
8,480
118
339
647
647

12,769
11,389
8,855
445
9,299
631
8,668
8,110
558
324
647
647

12,769
11,389
8,476
442
8,918
712
8,206
8,290
(84)
332
647
647

12,769
11,389
8,751
442
9,193
712
8,481
8,660
(179)
346
647
647

(221)
(868)
354
(514)

234 (416) (526)

(413) (1,063) (1,173)
354 354 454
(59) (709) (719)

MAY 2015
19
20
09-15 16-22

17
25-M1

18
02-08

12,769
11,389
9,666
442
10,108
712
9,396
8,730
666
349
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,676
453
10,129
712
9,417
9,013
404
361
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,732
397
10,129
642
9,488
8,860
628
354
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,772
397
10,169
642
9,528
8,940
588
358
647
647

317
(330)
454
124

43
(604)
454
(150)

273
(374)
454
80

230
(417)
454
37

JUNE 2015
23
24
06-12 13-19

21
23-29

22
30-J5

12,769
11,389
10,102
397
10,499
642
9,858
9,017
841
361
647
647

12,769
11,389
10,012
415
10,427
642
9,786
9,000
786
360
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,715
391
10,106
858
9,248
8,790
458
352
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,625
391
10,016
858
9,158
8,820
338
353
647
647

480
(167)
454
287

426
(221)
454
233

107
(540)
454
(86)

(14)
(661)
454
(207)

JULY 2015
28
29
11-17 18-24

25
20-26

26
27-J3

27
04-10

12,769
11,389
9,625
391
10,016
858
9,158
8,750
408
350
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,453
541
9,994
858
9,136
8,640
496
346
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,418
563
9,981
856
9,125
8,680
445
347
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,238
563
9,801
856
8,945
8,520
425
341
647
647

12,769
11,389
9,304
563
9,867
856
9,011
8,610
401
344
647
647

58
(589)
454
(135)

151
(496)
454
(42)

97
(550)
454
(96)

84
(563)
454
(109)

56 3 184
(591) (644) (463)
454 454 454
(137) (190) (9)

12,769
11,389
9,324
563
9,887
856
9,031
8,680
351
347
647
647

30
25-31

12,769
11,389
9,224
563
9,787
856
8,931
8,410
521
336
647
647

New Development: Petron capacity was originally reflected in available capacity at 60MW but Refinery Master Plant will be in full blast by next year thus
the capacity that will be exported to the grid will be reduced to 10 MW.
Note:
Possible Manual Load Dropping on Red Alert Status
Regulating Reserve, Refers to a Generating Unit that assists in Frequency Control by providing automatic Primary and/or Secondary Frequency response, equivalent to 4% of Peak
Demand
4
Contingency Reserve, Generating Capacity that is intended to take care of the loss of the largest Synchronized Generating Unit or the power import from a single Grid
interconnection, whichever is larger. Contingency Reserve in Luzon is 647 MW

Concerns
Power Plant

Concerns

Malaya Unit 1

For overhaul
If overhauling completed by Summer 2015, Unit 1 cannot run simultaneously with
Unit 2 due to fuel delivery and storage constraints

Malaya Unit 2

Limited at 230 MW

SLPGC

On-schedule commissioning at the earliest April 1, 2014

Millenium Energy Inc.

(MEI), Navotas

Rehab is on-going
Photo finish at 01 March 2015
Full availability of capacity requires any of the following: 1) MERALCO relaxing N-1
in the distribution line where MEI will be connected; or 2) need to have separate
lines which is being discussed with NGCP. There are other permitting issues in the
leasing of land for the substation and route of the transmission lines that will
traverse the LGU and Philippine Fishport Development Authority properties.
If not addressed, capacity will be limited to 54 MW during times that the existing
line will also be used by TMO.

MEI (Limay)

Photo finish at 01 March 2015

Avion

Photo finish at 15 April 2015

Bauang Rehab

Photo finish at 01 March 2015

MERALCO ILP

Operates only on Red Alert