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A-6
2013
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Annual
growth
2013-2040
(percent)
Residential
Propane ................................................................
Distillate fuel oil .....................................................
Natural gas ...........................................................
Electricity ..............................................................
24.3
27.3
10.6
35.3
23.3
27.2
10.0
35.6
23.0
21.5
11.6
37.8
23.7
23.7
12.7
39.6
24.4
26.3
12.8
40.0
25.5
29.4
13.7
40.8
26.6
32.9
15.5
42.4
0.5%
0.7%
1.6%
0.6%
Commercial
Propane ................................................................
Distillate fuel oil .....................................................
Residual fuel oil ....................................................
Natural gas ...........................................................
Electricity ..............................................................
21.0
26.8
22.9
8.2
30.0
20.0
26.7
22.1
8.1
29.7
19.4
21.0
14.2
9.6
31.1
20.2
23.2
16.0
10.5
32.5
21.1
25.8
18.1
10.4
32.6
22.5
28.9
20.6
11.1
33.1
23.9
32.5
24.3
12.6
34.5
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
1.6%
0.6%
Industrial1
Propane ................................................................
Distillate fuel oil .....................................................
Residual fuel oil ....................................................
Natural gas2 ..........................................................
Metallurgical coal ..................................................
Other industrial coal ..............................................
Coal to liquids .......................................................
Electricity ..............................................................
21.3
27.4
20.6
3.8
7.3
3.3
-19.8
20.3
27.3
20.0
4.6
5.5
3.2
-20.2
19.6
21.2
13.3
6.2
5.8
3.3
-21.3
20.5
23.5
15.1
6.9
6.2
3.5
-22.4
21.5
26.1
17.2
6.8
6.7
3.6
-22.6
22.9
29.2
19.7
7.5
6.9
3.7
-23.3
24.5
32.7
23.5
8.8
7.2
3.9
-24.7
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
2.5%
1.0%
0.7%
-0.7%
Transportation
Propane ................................................................
E853 ......................................................................
Motor gasoline4 .....................................................
Jet fuel5 .................................................................
Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 ................................
Residual fuel oil ....................................................
Natural gas7 ..........................................................
Electricity ..............................................................
25.3
35.7
30.7
23.0
28.8
20.0
20.4
27.8
24.6
33.1
29.3
21.8
28.2
19.3
17.6
28.5
24.0
30.4
22.5
16.1
23.1
11.7
17.8
30.2
24.7
29.0
24.3
18.3
25.5
13.3
16.8
32.3
25.5
31.2
26.4
21.3
28.0
15.4
15.7
32.9
26.5
33.2
29.1
24.5
31.1
17.6
17.1
33.9
27.6
35.4
32.3
28.3
34.7
20.3
19.6
36.0
0.4%
0.3%
0.4%
1.0%
0.8%
0.2%
0.4%
0.9%
Electric power8
Distillate fuel oil .....................................................
Residual fuel oil ....................................................
Natural gas ...........................................................
Steam coal ............................................................
24.1
20.8
3.5
2.4
24.0
18.9
4.4
2.3
18.8
11.5
5.4
2.4
20.9
13.3
6.3
2.5
23.6
15.4
6.2
2.7
26.7
17.8
7.0
2.8
30.2
21.6
8.3
2.9
0.9%
0.5%
2.4%
0.8%
22.9
35.7
30.4
23.0
28.3
20.3
5.5
7.3
2.5
-29.3
21.9
33.1
29.0
21.8
27.9
19.4
6.1
5.5
2.4
-29.5
21.1
30.4
22.5
16.1
22.6
12.2
7.5
5.8
2.4
-30.8
21.8
29.0
24.3
18.3
25.0
14.0
8.3
6.2
2.6
-32.1
22.6
31.2
26.4
21.3
27.6
16.0
8.2
6.7
2.7
-32.4
23.8
33.2
29.1
24.5
30.7
18.4
9.0
6.9
2.8
-33.2
25.2
35.4
32.3
28.3
34.2
21.5
10.5
7.2
3.0
-34.7
0.5%
0.3%
0.4%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
2.0%
1.0%
0.8%
-0.6%
234
174
218
738
1,364
0
1,365
243
177
224
719
1,364
1
1,364
254
194
264
565
1,276
1
1,277
268
210
302
596
1,376
4
1,379
276
219
323
638
1,456
6
1,462
289
234
349
706
1,579
8
1,587
311
259
389
791
1,751
10
1,761
0.9%
1.4%
2.1%
0.4%
0.9%
10.2%
0.9%
Reference case
2013
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Annual
growth
2013-2040
(percent)
Residential
Propane ................................................................
Distillate fuel oil .....................................................
Natural gas ...........................................................
Electricity ..............................................................
23.9
26.9
10.4
34.8
23.3
27.2
10.0
35.6
26.1
24.4
13.2
42.9
29.1
29.1
15.7
48.8
32.8
35.3
17.1
53.6
37.5
43.2
20.2
60.0
43.1
53.3
25.1
68.8
2.3%
2.5%
3.5%
2.5%
Commercial
Propane ................................................................
Distillate fuel oil .....................................................
Residual fuel oil ....................................................
Natural gas ...........................................................
Electricity ..............................................................
20.7
26.4
22.6
8.0
29.6
20.0
26.7
22.1
8.1
29.7
22.0
23.8
16.1
10.8
35.3
24.9
28.6
19.7
13.0
40.0
28.3
34.6
24.3
13.9
43.7
33.0
42.5
30.3
16.4
48.7
38.8
52.6
39.4
20.5
56.0
2.5%
2.5%
2.2%
3.5%
2.4%
Industrial1
Propane ................................................................
Distillate fuel oil .....................................................
Residual fuel oil ....................................................
Natural gas2 ..........................................................
Metallurgical coal ..................................................
Other industrial coal ..............................................
Coal to liquids .......................................................
Electricity ..............................................................
21.0
27.0
20.3
3.8
7.2
3.3
-19.5
20.3
27.3
20.0
4.6
5.5
3.2
-20.2
22.3
24.1
15.1
7.0
6.6
3.8
-24.2
25.2
29.0
18.6
8.5
7.7
4.3
-27.5
28.8
35.0
23.1
9.1
8.9
4.8
-30.3
33.7
42.9
29.0
11.1
10.2
5.5
-34.2
39.7
53.0
38.0
14.2
11.6
6.3
-40.0
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
4.3%
2.8%
2.5%
-2.6%
Transportation
Propane ................................................................
E853 ......................................................................
Motor gasoline4 .....................................................
Jet fuel5 .................................................................
Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 ................................
Residual fuel oil ....................................................
Natural gas7 ..........................................................
Electricity ..............................................................
24.9
35.2
30.2
22.6
28.4
19.7
20.1
27.4
24.6
33.1
29.3
21.8
28.2
19.3
17.6
28.5
27.2
34.4
25.5
18.3
26.2
13.2
20.2
34.3
30.4
35.8
29.9
22.6
31.4
16.4
20.6
39.8
34.1
41.9
35.3
28.6
37.6
20.6
21.0
44.1
38.9
48.8
42.8
36.0
45.7
25.9
25.2
49.9
44.8
57.4
52.4
45.8
56.2
32.9
31.8
58.4
2.2%
2.1%
2.2%
2.8%
2.6%
2.0%
2.2%
2.7%
Electric power8
Distillate fuel oil .....................................................
Residual fuel oil ....................................................
Natural gas ...........................................................
Steam coal ............................................................
23.8
20.5
3.5
2.4
24.0
18.9
4.4
2.3
21.3
13.0
6.1
2.7
25.8
16.3
7.7
3.1
31.7
20.6
8.3
3.6
39.3
26.2
10.3
4.1
49.0
35.0
13.4
4.7
2.7%
2.3%
4.2%
2.6%
A-7
Reference case
2013
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Annual
growth
2013-2040
(percent)
22.6
35.2
30.0
22.6
27.9
20.0
5.4
7.2
2.4
-28.8
21.9
33.1
29.0
21.8
27.9
19.4
6.1
5.5
2.4
-29.5
23.9
34.4
25.5
18.3
25.7
13.8
8.5
6.6
2.8
-34.9
26.8
35.8
29.9
22.6
30.8
17.2
10.2
7.7
3.2
-39.5
30.3
41.9
35.3
28.6
36.9
21.5
11.0
8.9
3.7
-43.4
35.0
48.8
42.8
36.0
45.1
27.0
13.2
10.2
4.2
-48.7
40.9
57.4
52.4
45.8
55.5
34.8
17.0
11.6
4.8
-56.2
2.3%
2.1%
2.2%
2.8%
2.6%
2.2%
3.8%
2.8%
2.6%
-2.4%
231
172
215
727
1,344
0
1,345
243
177
224
719
1,364
1
1,364
288
220
299
641
1,448
1
1,449
330
259
372
734
1,694
4
1,698
370
294
433
855
1,952
8
1,960
425
344
513
1,038
2,320
12
2,332
504
420
631
1,283
2,839
16
2,855
2.7%
3.2%
3.9%
2.2%
2.8%
12.2%
2.8%
Includes energy for combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems.
Excludes use for lease and plant fuel.
E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of
ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast.
4
Sales weighted-average price for all grades. Includes Federal, State, and local taxes.
5
Kerosene-type jet fuel. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.
6
Diesel fuel for on-road use. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.
7
Natural gas used as fuel in motor vehicles, trains, and ships. Includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes and estimated dispensing costs or charges.
8
Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status.
9
Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices shown in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption.
Btu = British thermal unit.
- - = Not applicable.
Note: Data for 2012 and 2013 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports.
Sources: 2012 and 2013 prices for motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel are based on prices in the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA),
Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380(2014/08) (Washington, DC, August 2014). 2012 residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas delivered prices:
EIA, Natural Gas Annual 2013, DOE/EIA-0131(2013) (Washington, DC, October 2014). 2013 residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas delivered prices:
EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(2014/07) (Washington, DC, July 2014). 2012 transportation sector natural gas delivered prices are based on: EIA,
Natural Gas Annual 2013, DOE/EIA-0131(2013) (Washington, DC, October 2014), EIA, State Energy Data Report 2012, DOE/EIA-0214(2012) (Washington, DC,
June 2014) and estimated State and Federal motor fuel taxes and dispensing costs or charges. 2013 transportation sector natural gas delivered prices are model
results. 2012 and 2013 electric power sector distillate and residual fuel oil prices: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2014/11) (Washington, DC,
November 2014). 2012 and 2013 electric power sector natural gas prices: EIA, Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226, April 2013 and April 2014, Table 4.2, and
EIA, State Energy Data Report 2012, DOE/EIA-0214(2012) (Washington, DC, June 2014). 2012 and 2013 coal prices based on: EIA, Quarterly Coal Report,
October-December 2013, DOE/EIA-0121(2013/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2014) and EIA, AEO2015 National Energy Modeling System run
REF2015.D021915A. 2012 and 2013 electricity prices: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2014/11) (Washington, DC, November 2014). 2012 and
2013 E85 prices derived from monthly prices in the Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report. Projections: EIA, AEO2015 National Energy Modeling System run
REF2015.D021915A.
2
3
A-8