Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SO PAULO
2015
Fundao
Getlio
Vargas,
como
Campo
de
conhecimento:
Finanas
Comportamentais
SO PAULO
2015
Fundao
Getlio
Vargas,
como
Campo
de
conhecimento:
Finanas
Comportamentais
Data de aprovao:
___/___/___
Banca examinadora:
_________________________________
Prof. Dr. Paulo Arvate (Orientador)
FGV-EAESP
_________________________________
Prof. Dra. Celina Martins Ramalho
FGV-EAESP
AGRADECIMENTOS
Ao meu Padrinho, Mrcio, e a meu Pai, Hilrio que tambm foram essenciais na
concluso deste trabalho.
Aos meus chefes e colegas de trabalho, Marcos e Daniel que entenderam minha
dedicao a este estudo.
Let us fight for a world of reason, a world where science and progress will lead to all
mens happiness.
RESUMO
ABSTRACT
We concluded that the indications that the asset allocation of the portfolio of
the Brazilian investor was not in the optimal risk return point were confirmed under
justifiable behavioral reasons. Brazilians investors portfolio is concentrated in a few
assets, which expose them to a higher level of risk.
LISTA DE TABELAS
LISTA DE GRFICOS
SUMRIO
1 INTRODUO........................................................................................................10
2 REVISO DE LITERATURA..................................................................................12
4 QUESTIONRIO.....................................................................................................21
5 CONCLUSO........................................................................................................46
REFERNCIAS..........................................................................................................47
ANEXO.......................................................................................................................48
10
1 INTRODUO
11
objetivo
central
deste
estudo
identificar
se
de
fato
tal
12
2 REVISO DA LITERATURA
13
Porm, no decorrer de sua tese, ele deixa claro que tal arbitragem longe
de perfeita, existem rudos de mercado e limitaes de horizonte que foram a
liquidao antecipada de ativos antes da total arbitragem deste, e, muito
frequentemente, excesso de volatilidade a eventos especficos, levando a
imperfeies de mercado, e levando preos de ativos para longe de seus valores
fundamentais.
14
15
Por exemplo: imagine a descrio de uma pessoa por seus vizinhos como
tmida e com pouco interesse em pessoas, interessada por ordem e detalhes. Agora,
caso fosse pedido para se fosse classificada a probabilidade desta pessoa pertencer
as seguintes profisses: fazendeiro, bibliotecrio e piloto de avio, muito
provavelmente a profisso bibliotecrio seria a mais escolhida. Quando na verdade a
informao estatstica mais relevante a ser levada em considerao que existem
muito mais fazendeiros do que bibliotecrios na populao como um todo, mas a fcil
manipulao da informao leva a esse erro. Este um demonstrativo da heurstica
da representatividade.
16
exemplo, a diferena entre voc vivenciar um desastre areo ou ler sobre o mesmo
desastre no jornal pode fazer voc estar mais suscetvel ao medo de voar, pelo
impacto gerado, ou o histrico de doenas cardacas na famlia pode levar a crer que
este tipo de doena mais frequente do que ele realmente pelo pequeno espao
amostral usado como referncia.
17
fev/15
abr/15
out/14
dez/14
jun/14
ago/14
fev/14
abr/14
out/13
dez/13
jun/13
ago/13
fev/13
abr/13
dez/12
out/12
ago/12
jun/12
abr/12
fev/12
dez/11
out/11
ago/11
0,00%
IPCA
35,0%
30,0%
25,0%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
jan/09
jan/10
jan/11
jan/12
jan/13
jan/14
IPCA
jan/15
18
50,0%
45,0%
40,0%
35,0%
30,0%
25,0%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
jan/09
jan/10
jan/11
jan/12
jan/13
jan/14
jan/15
IPCA
25,0%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
abr/15
fev/15
dez/14
out/14
ago/14
jun/14
fev/14
abr/14
out/13
dez/13
jun/13
ago/13
fev/13
abr/13
out/12
dez/12
jun/12
ago/12
fev/12
abr/12
dez/11
out/11
ago/11
-5,0%
IPCA
19
Morar
Investir
R$ 2 milhes ou maior
100%
0%
R$ 1MM e 1.99MM
72%
28%
73%
27%
78%
22%
64%
36%
71%
29%
63%
37%
53%
57%
47%
53%
Morar
Investir
1T2014
48%
52%
2T2014
66%
34%
20
21
4 QUESTIONRIO
61,4%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
38,6%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
Feminino
Grfico 5 Sexo
Fonte: Elaborao prpria.
Masculino
22
60,0%
54,2%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
28,8%
20,0%
9,8%
10,0%
6,5%
0,0%
Solteiro
Divorciado
Casado
Vivo
50,0%
45,0%
40,0%
35,0%
30,0%
25,0%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
45,8%
30,7%
13,1%
11,1%
No trabalha
Trabalha com
Trabalha sem
Carteira Reg.
Carteira Reg.
Empresrio
35,0%
32,0%
30,0%
26,8%
25,0%
18,3%
20,0%
15,0%
12,4%
10,5%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
18-25 anos
26-35 anos
Grfico 8 Idade
Fonte: Elaborao prpria.
36-45 anos
46-60 anos
Acima 60
anos
23
40,0%
35,9%
35,0%
30,0%
24,2%
25,0%
20,0%
17,0%
15,0%
15,0%
10,0%
7,8%
5,0%
0,0%
Abaixo 2 Sal. M
2-4 Sal. M
4-10 Sal. M
Acima 20 Sal. M
10-20 Sal. M
Grfico 9 Renda
Fonte: Elaborao prpria.
30,0%
26,8%
22,9%
25,0%
20,0%
13,7%
15,0%
10,0%
7,8%
9,2%
11,1%
7,8%
5,0%
0,0%
Fund.
Fund.
Mdio
Mdio
Superior
Superior
Incomp.
Comp.
Incomp.
Comp.
Incomp.
Comp.
68,6%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
31,4%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
Sim
No
Ps-Grad.
24
80,0%
73,2%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
26,8%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
No
Sim
Carro
30,0%
26,1%
25,0%
20,0%
19,0%
15,7%
15,7%
15,0%
11,1%
10,0%
3,3%
5,0%
1,3%
0,0%
No Possui
Possui
Popular
Mdio
Luxo
Carro
Carro
Grfico 13 Automvel
Fonte: Elaborao prpria
Carro
Carro
90,0%
Carro
Carro
83,7%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
16,3%
10,0%
0,0%
No
Sim
Grfico 14 Herana
Fonte: Elaborao prpria.
Carro
Carro
Carro
25
70,0%
57,5%
60,0%
50,0%
42,5%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
No
Sim
Carro
40,0%
35,9%
35,0%
30,0%
25,0%
20,0%
13,7%
15,0%
10,0%
2,6%
5,0%
0,0%
0-20%
20-40%
40-60%
3,3%
0,7%
60-80%
80-100%
Carro
90,0%
Carro
Carro
85,6%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
14,4%
10,0%
0,0%
Sim
No
Carro
Carro
26
80,0% 71,2%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
37,3%
40,0%
30,0%
Cmbio
Alternativo
Dbtures
Prev. Priv.
Negcios
Jia
Dinheiro
Fundos
LCA
11,1%
7,2% 9,2%
6,5%
Aes
1,3%
Apl. Fina
Vec.
Poup.
Imvel
0,0%
Tt. Pb.
6,5%
10,0%
Rend. Fix.
15,7%
20,0%
27
120,0%
100,0%
100,0%
80,0%
66,7%
60,0%
33,3%
40,0%
20,0%
8,3%
0,0%
Imveis
Poupana
Veculo
Dinheiro
Carro
Carro
Carro
83,8%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
48,6%
50,0%
37,8%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
Imveis
Poupana
Veculo
Carro
Carro
Carro
28
70,0% 65,5%
60,0%
50,0%
38,2%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
14,5%
Jia
Dinh.
Func.
LCA
Aes
Rend. Fix
Prev.
3,6% 1,8%
Aplic.
Poup.
Imveis
0,0%
10,9%
Tt. Pub.
10,0%
Veculo
7,3% 9,1%
70,0%
61,54%
60,0%
50,0%
34,62%
30,0%
23,08%
15,38%
20,0%
10,0%
15,38%
19,23%
3,85%
15,38%
7,69%
3,85%
Moed. Estr.
Func.
LCA
Aes
Rend. Fix
Tt. Pub.
Veculo
Poup.
Imveis
0,0%
Altern.
40,0%
70,0%
60,9%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
21,7%
17,4%
17,4%
13,0%
Func.
Db.
Neg.
Func.
LCA
Aes
Tt. Pub.
Veculo
Poup.
Imveis
0,0%
Dinh.
10,0%
Moed. Estr.
20,0%
29
possvel observar que na faixa de renda mais baixa (menos que dois
salrios mnimos de renda familiar) 100% dos respondentes optariam por investir em
imveis, e 66,6% em poupana. Est categoria conta com 12 respondentes.
Conforme observado no grfico, o percentual investido em imveis e, principalmente
em poupana diminui conforme avanamos em faixas de renda at chegarmos na
faixa superior (mais do que 20 salrios mnimos de renda familiar), com 14 indivduos,
dos quais 60,9% investiriam em imveis e apenas 4,3% em poupana. Opes de
investimento mais tambm so citadas nas faixas superiores de renda, corroborando
o estudo de Vissing-Jorgensen (2004) de que altos custos fixos na obteno de
informao de investimento podem estar atrelados a inrcia na correo dos
portflios.
90,0% 81,7%
80,0%
68,6%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
13,7%
5,9%
Der. Fut.
Cmbio
Tesouro
Poup.
Dbt.
5,2% 7,8%
3,3%
Arte
Dinheiro
Ouro
Imveis
Jia
7,2%
5,2%
10,0%
0,0%
19,0%
16,3%
20,0%
Aes
30,0%
30
100,0%
91,7%
91,7%
90,0%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
25,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
Dinheiro
Imveis
Poupana
Carro
100,0%
90,0%
Carro
Carro
89,2%
89,2%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
18,9%
20,0%
10,0%
5,4%
2,7%
Jia
Arte
2,7%
0,0%
Imveis
Dinheiro
Poupana
Aes
Carro
Carro
80,0%
Carro
Carro
Carro
76,4%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
16,4%
9,1%
16,4%
9,1%
16,4%
5,5%
9,1%
5,5%
0,0%
Imveis Ouro
Dinheiro Jias
Poup. Tesouro
Carro Carro
Carro
Carro
Carro
31
90,00%
76,92%
80,00%
70,00%
57,69%
60,00%
50,00%
42,31%
19,23%
19,23%
3,85%
30,00%
Aes
Cmbio
Dbt.
Tesouro
3,85%
Poup.
Arte
Jias
Dinheiro
3,85%
Ouro
0,00%
15,38%
11,54%
3,85%
Imveis
10,00%
Alternat.
20,00%
11,54%
Der. Fut.
40,00%
80,0%
73,9%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
39,1%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
13,0%
17,4%
21,7%
26,1%
13,0%
Der. Fut.
Aes
Cmbio
Dbt.
Tesouro
Poup.
4,3%
Arte
Dinheiro
Imveis
0,0%
4,3%
Jias
10,0%
17,4%
32
80,0%
70,0%
67,3%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
32,7%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
Sim
No
Carro
33
56,8%
60,0%
50,0%
43,2%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
Sim
No
Carro
34
Ap.
Finan.
Imveis
Poupana Veculo
Ttulo
Ap.
Finan.
0.432**
(0.168)
-0.183
(0.169)
-0.429**
(0.179)
0.113
(0.139)
0.029
(0.087)
-0.006
(0.045)
0.480***
(0.179)
-0.296
(0.180)
-0.420**
(0.191)
-0.097
(0.148)
-0.015
(0.092)
0.073
(0.048)
0.466**
(0.211)
-0.171
(0.213)
-0.318
(0.225)
-0.040
(0.174)
-0.132
(0.109)
0.026
(0.057)
0.453*
(0.230)
0.094
(0.085)
0.268
(0.462)
0.222
(0.479)
0.264
(0.491)
-0.003
(0.501)
0.059
(0.489)
0.170
(0.468)
0.099
(0.473)
0.128
(0.450)
0.038
(0.375)
0.277
(0.353)
-0.022
(0.345)
0.131
(0.343)
0.162
(0.343)
-0.074
(0.232)
0.032
(0.085)
-0.584
(0.466)
-0.531
(0.482)
-0.629
(0.495)
-0.587
(0.504)
0.365
(0.493)
0.344
(0.471)
0.429
(0.477)
0.381
(0.453)
-0.591
(0.377)
-0.482
(0.356)
-0.290
(0.347)
-0.358
(0.345)
-0.496
(0.345)
-0.561**
(0.246)
0.072
(0.090)
0.171
(0.493)
0.235
(0.511)
0.123
(0.524)
0.292
(0.534)
-0.317
(0.522)
-0.344
(0.499)
-0.366
(0.505)
-0.222
(0.480)
0.478
(0.399)
0.336
(0.376)
0.337
(0.367)
0.344
(0.366)
0.541
(0.365)
-0.000
(0.190)
-0.036
(0.070)
-0.596
(0.382)
-0.532
(0.395)
-0.501
(0.405)
-0.322
(0.413)
0.065
(0.404)
-0.076
(0.386)
-0.004
(0.391)
-0.106
(0.372)
-0.003
(0.309)
-0.001
(0.291)
0.133
(0.284)
0.072
(0.283)
-0.202
(0.283)
-0.286**
(0.119)
0.062
(0.044)
0.132
(0.239)
0.063
(0.247)
0.042
(0.253)
-0.032
(0.258)
0.077
(0.252)
-0.051
(0.241)
-0.081
(0.244)
0.083
(0.232)
0.067
(0.193)
0.058
(0.182)
-0.061
(0.178)
0.085
(0.177)
0.027
(0.177)
0.027
(0.062)
0.045*
(0.023)
0.053
(0.125)
0.113
(0.129)
0.057
(0.133)
0.114
(0.135)
-0.134
(0.132)
-0.069
(0.126)
-0.040
(0.128)
-0.056
(0.121)
0.001
(0.101)
-0.060
(0.095)
-0.034
(0.093)
-0.095
(0.093)
-0.042
(0.092)
35
(continua)
Varivel
Renda
Aes
LCA
Fundos
Moeda
Dinheiro
2 a 4 Salrios Mn.
0.038
(0.087)
0.020
(0.092)
0.035
(0.115)
0.020
(0.096)
-0.003
(0.058)
-0.080
(0.078)
-0.017
(0.093)
0.140
(0.098)
0.061
(0.122)
0.036
(0.102)
-0.015
(0.061)
-0.029
(0.083)
0.130
(0.110)
0.155
(0.116)
-0.046
(0.144)
0.124
(0.121)
0.091
(0.072)
-0.054
(0.098)
-0.066
(0.120)
-0.009
(0.044)
0.006
(0.240)
-0.016
(0.249)
-0.021
(0.255)
-0.057
(0.260)
-0.103
(0.254)
-0.107
(0.243)
-0.060
(0.246)
-0.191
(0.234)
-0.036
(0.195)
-0.056
(0.183)
-0.095
(0.179)
-0.100
(0.178)
0.109
0.021
(0.126)
-0.005
(0.046)
0.185
(0.253)
0.236
(0.262)
0.147
(0.269)
0.167
(0.274)
0.393
(0.267)
0.602**
(0.256)
0.513**
(0.259)
0.685***
(0.246)
-0.143
(0.205)
-0.133
(0.193)
-0.122
(0.188)
-0.106
(0.187)
-0.045
-0.048
(0.157)
-0.023
(0.058)
0.086
(0.316)
0.171
(0.327)
0.020
(0.335)
0.110
(0.342)
0.937***
(0.334)
0.827**
(0.319)
0.774**
(0.323)
0.856***
(0.307)
0.057
(0.256)
0.167
(0.241)
-0.023
(0.235)
0.107
(0.234)
-0.008
0.195
(0.131)
-0.037
(0.048)
0.090
(0.264)
0.078
(0.273)
0.035
(0.280)
-0.011
(0.286)
-0.198
(0.279)
-0.105
(0.267)
-0.189
(0.270)
-0.104
(0.257)
-0.216
(0.214)
-0.088
(0.201)
-0.104
(0.197)
-0.023
(0.196)
0.016
0.055
(0.079)
0.006
(0.029)
-0.020
(0.158)
-0.006
(0.164)
-0.048
(0.168)
-0.006
(0.171)
-0.028
(0.168)
-0.024
(0.160)
-0.028
(0.162)
-0.079
(0.154)
0.160
(0.128)
0.104
(0.121)
0.031
(0.118)
0.053
(0.117)
0.002
-0.007
(0.106)
-0.011
(0.039)
-0.087
(0.214)
-0.144
(0.222)
-0.207
(0.227)
-0.178
(0.232)
-0.338
(0.226)
-0.272
(0.216)
-0.303
(0.219)
-0.182
(0.208)
0.130
(0.173)
0.037
(0.163)
0.017
(0.159)
0.028
(0.159)
0.006
4 a 10 Salrios
Mn.
10 a 20 Salrios
Mn.
Acima de 20
Salrios Mn.
Sexo
Solteiro
Casado
Divorciado
Vivo
No Trabalha
Trabalha c/ CA
Trabalha s/ CA
Empresrio
18/ 25 anos
26/ 35 anos
36/ 45 anos
46/ 60 anos
Acima 61 anos
36
(continua)
Varivel
2 a 4 Salrios
Mn.
4 a 10 Salrios
Mn.
10 a 20 Salrios
Mn.
Acima de 20
Salrios Mn.
Sexo
Solteiro
Casado
Divorciado
Vivo
No Trabalha
Trabalha c/ CA
Trabalha s/ CA
Empresrio
18/ 25 anos
26/ 35 anos
36/ 45 anos
46/ 60 anos
Acima 61 anos
Jia
Negcio
Previdncia Debntures
Alternativo
-0.010
(0.036)
0.005
(0.033)
0.010
(0.033)
0.021
(0.031)
0.026
(0.033)
0.013
(0.038)
0.008
(0.036)
0.008
(0.035)
0.013
(0.033)
0.046
(0.035)
0.024
(0.045)
0.000
(0.042)
-0.047
(0.041)
0.026
(0.038)
0.106**
(0.042)
0.022
(0.049)
-0.022
(0.018)
-0.022
(0.098)
-0.010
(0.102)
-0.018
(0.104)
0.005
(0.106)
-0.003
(0.104)
-0.002
(0.099)
0.019
(0.101)
-0.005
(0.096)
0.016
(0.080)
0.010
(0.075)
0.046
(0.073)
0.001
(0.073)
0.010
(0.073)
0.053
(0.046)
-0.000
(0.017)
-0.018
(0.092)
-0.009
(0.095)
-0.021
(0.098)
-0.020
(0.100)
-0.117
(0.097)
-0.075
(0.093)
-0.069
(0.094)
-0.029
(0.090)
0.004
(0.075)
-0.008
(0.070)
-0.010
(0.069)
-0.019
(0.068)
0.074
(0.068)
-0.063
(0.045)
0.007
(0.017)
-0.004
(0.091)
-0.003
(0.094)
0.006
(0.096)
0.017
(0.098)
0.050
(0.096)
0.071
(0.092)
0.066
(0.093)
0.044
(0.088)
0.095
(0.073)
0.012
(0.069)
0.011
(0.068)
0.017
(0.067)
0.045
(0.067)
0.086**
(0.042)
-0.015
(0.015)
0.064
(0.084)
0.037
(0.087)
0.041
(0.090)
0.022
(0.091)
0.027
(0.089)
-0.057
(0.085)
-0.048
(0.086)
-0.033
(0.082)
-0.113*
(0.068)
-0.022
(0.064)
-0.048
(0.063)
-0.027
(0.062)
-0.084
(0.062)
0.068
(0.045)
-0.001
(0.017)
0.024
(0.091)
-0.007
(0.094)
-0.003
(0.097)
-0.013
(0.098)
-0.048
(0.096)
-0.041
(0.092)
-0.042
(0.093)
-0.035
(0.088)
-0.028
(0.074)
0.022
(0.069)
-0.007
(0.068)
-0.018
(0.067)
-0.014
(0.067)
37
(continua)
Varivel
Educao Fund.
I
Educao
Fund.C
Mdio Incomp.
Mdico Comp.
Superior Incomp.
Superior Compl.
Ps-Graduado
No possui carro
Carro popular
Carro Compacto
Carro Mdio
Carro Luxo
Carro Esportivo
Carro Esp. Luxo
Recebeu
Herana
Residncia
Prpria
Imvel
Previdncia
Privada
Constante
Observaes
R-squared
Ap.
Finan.
Ttulo
Ap.
Finan.
0.213
(0.311)
0.037
(0.313)
0.085
(0.332)
0.280
(0.257)
-0.407**
(0.161)
-0.004
(0.084)
0.074
(0.304)
0.298
(0.315)
0.241
(0.277)
0.287
(0.274)
0.175
(0.267)
0.147
(0.289)
-0.055
(0.333)
-0.089
(0.319)
-0.116
(0.328)
0.273
(0.330)
-0.005
(0.336)
0.110
(0.370)
0.390
(0.461)
-0.361
(0.306)
-0.111
(0.317)
-0.093
(0.279)
-0.266
(0.276)
-0.200
(0.269)
-0.390
(0.291)
-0.312
(0.336)
-0.085
(0.321)
-0.226
(0.330)
-0.104
(0.333)
-0.167
(0.338)
0.142
(0.372)
0.162
(0.464)
0.493
(0.324)
0.192
(0.335)
0.228
(0.295)
0.180
(0.292)
0.132
(0.285)
0.370
(0.308)
-0.347
(0.355)
-0.033
(0.340)
-0.276
(0.349)
-0.479
(0.352)
-0.524
(0.358)
0.002
(0.394)
0.089
(0.492)
-0.018
(0.251)
-0.103
(0.260)
0.021
(0.228)
0.019
(0.226)
-0.020
(0.220)
-0.078
(0.238)
0.210
(0.275)
0.304
(0.263)
0.242
(0.270)
0.203
(0.273)
0.297
(0.277)
0.400
(0.305)
0.148
(0.381)
-0.217
(0.157)
-0.232
(0.162)
-0.286**
(0.143)
-0.414***
(0.141)
-0.180
(0.138)
-0.128
(0.149)
-0.004
(0.172)
-0.117
(0.164)
-0.053
(0.169)
0.142
(0.170)
-0.085
(0.173)
-0.062
(0.191)
-0.151
(0.238)
-0.007
(0.082)
-0.014
(0.085)
-0.024
(0.075)
0.069
(0.074)
0.003
(0.072)
0.081
(0.078)
0.064
(0.090)
0.027
(0.086)
0.111
(0.088)
0.046
(0.089)
0.074
(0.091)
0.028
(0.100)
-0.089
(0.124)
0.099
(0.119)
-0.057
(0.119)
0.208
(0.126)
-0.033
(0.098)
0.067
(0.061)
0.019
(0.032)
0.120
(0.117)
0.297**
(0.113)
-0.176
(0.118)
0.042
(0.114)
0.122
(0.125)
-0.063
(0.121)
-0.210**
(0.097)
0.071
(0.094)
0.047
(0.060)
-0.039
(0.058)
-0.096***
(0.032)
-0.004
(0.031)
0.248*
(0.126)
-0.761
(0.838)
-0.345***
(0.127)
1.986**
(0.844)
-0.075
(0.135)
0.435
(0.894)
-0.064
(0.104)
0.596
(0.692)
0.249***
(0.065)
0.245
(0.432)
-0.072**
(0.034)
0.005
(0.226)
152
0.465
152
0.355
152
0.365
152
0.330
152
0.433
152
0.266
38
(contnua)
Varivel
Educao Fund. I
Educao Fund.C
Mdio Incomp.
Mdico Comp.
Superior Incomp.
Superior Compl.
Ps-Graduado
No possui carro
Carro popular
Carro Compacto
Carro Mdio
Carro Luxo
Carro Esportivo
Carro Esp. Luxo
Recebeu Herana
Residncia Prpria
Imvel
Previdncia
Privada
Constante
Observations
R-squared
Renda
Aes
LCA
Fundos
Moeda
Dinheiro
0.241
(0.162)
0.319**
(0.158)
0.270
(0.163)
0.337**
(0.144)
0.245*
(0.142)
0.339**
(0.139)
0.524***
(0.150)
-0.015
(0.173)
-0.030
(0.166)
-0.132
(0.170)
-0.039
(0.172)
0.136
(0.174)
0.128
(0.192)
-0.009
(0.240)
-0.002
(0.062)
0.032
(0.061)
-0.083
(0.059)
0.261
(0.170)
0.340**
(0.166)
0.378**
(0.172)
0.295*
(0.151)
0.549***
(0.150)
0.384***
(0.146)
0.770***
(0.158)
0.312*
(0.182)
0.105
(0.174)
0.127
(0.179)
0.072
(0.181)
0.033
(0.184)
-0.050
(0.202)
-0.096
(0.252)
0.155**
(0.065)
-0.046
(0.064)
-0.218***
(0.062)
-0.660***
(0.212)
-0.617***
(0.208)
-0.657***
(0.215)
-0.726***
(0.189)
-0.727***
(0.187)
-0.519***
(0.182)
-0.579***
(0.197)
-0.026
(0.228)
-0.105
(0.218)
0.074
(0.224)
0.029
(0.226)
-0.058
(0.229)
0.099
(0.252)
-0.420
(0.315)
0.040
(0.081)
-0.009
(0.080)
-0.030
(0.077)
0.192
(0.178)
0.336*
(0.174)
0.340*
(0.180)
0.301*
(0.158)
0.409**
(0.156)
0.425***
(0.152)
0.349**
(0.165)
0.232
(0.190)
0.041
(0.182)
0.080
(0.187)
-0.018
(0.189)
-0.135
(0.192)
-0.095
(0.211)
-0.080
(0.263)
0.025
(0.068)
0.016
(0.067)
-0.049
(0.065)
0.029
(0.107)
0.037
(0.104)
0.033
(0.108)
-0.003
(0.095)
-0.063
(0.094)
0.028
(0.091)
0.039
(0.099)
-0.068
(0.114)
-0.075
(0.109)
0.017
(0.112)
-0.056
(0.113)
-0.006
(0.115)
-0.050
(0.127)
-0.093
(0.158)
-0.019
(0.041)
0.065
(0.040)
-0.081**
(0.039)
0.232
(0.144)
0.166
(0.141)
0.118
(0.145)
0.111
(0.128)
-0.026
(0.127)
0.067
(0.123)
0.072
(0.133)
-0.569***
(0.154)
-0.518***
(0.147)
-0.545***
(0.151)
-0.556***
(0.153)
-0.429***
(0.155)
-0.570***
(0.171)
-0.537**
(0.213)
0.142**
(0.055)
0.031
(0.054)
-0.122**
(0.052)
0.250***
(0.066)
-0.128
(0.435)
0.064
(0.069)
-1.130**
(0.458)
0.188**
(0.086)
-0.276
(0.572)
0.130*
(0.072)
-0.246
(0.478)
-0.044
(0.043)
0.003
(0.287)
-0.044
(0.058)
0.883**
(0.388)
152
0.474
152
0.532
152
0.386
152
0.307
152
0.207
152
0.262
39
(concluso)
Varivel
Educao Fund. I
Educao Fund.C
Mdio Incomp.
Mdico Comp.
Superior Incomp.
Superior Compl.
Ps-Graduado
No possui carro
Carro popular
Carro Compacto
Carro Mdio
Carro Luxo
Carro Esportivo
Carro Esp. Luxo
Recebeu Herana
Res. prpria
Imvel
Prev. privada
Constant
Jia
Negcio
Prev.
0.017
(0.066)
-0.027
(0.065)
-0.012
(0.067)
0.016
(0.059)
0.006
(0.058)
-0.007
(0.057)
-0.006
(0.061)
0.009
(0.071)
0.034
(0.068)
0.001
(0.070)
0.004
(0.070)
0.018
(0.071)
-0.012
(0.079)
0.025
(0.098)
0.000
(0.025)
0.000
(0.025)
-0.002
(0.024)
-0.006
(0.027)
-0.018
(0.178)
-0.010
(0.062)
-0.012
(0.061)
-0.039
(0.063)
-0.009
(0.055)
-0.001
(0.055)
0.004
(0.053)
-0.036
(0.057)
-0.003
(0.066)
0.013
(0.064)
0.004
(0.065)
-0.006
(0.066)
0.025
(0.067)
-0.018
(0.074)
-0.031
(0.092)
-0.001
(0.024)
-0.027
(0.023)
0.006
(0.023)
-0.038
(0.025)
0.112
(0.167)
0.038
(0.061)
0.036
(0.060)
0.008
(0.062)
0.037
(0.054)
-0.029
(0.054)
0.051
(0.052)
0.026
(0.057)
-0.053
(0.065)
-0.022
(0.062)
-0.016
(0.064)
0.052
(0.065)
0.009
(0.066)
0.001
(0.072)
-0.070
(0.090)
-0.008
(0.023)
-0.046**
(0.023)
0.026
(0.022)
0.036
(0.025)
-0.073
(0.164)
Debntures Alternativos
-0.052
(0.057)
-0.004
(0.055)
0.021
(0.057)
-0.002
(0.050)
-0.020
(0.050)
0.015
(0.049)
-0.011
(0.053)
0.053
(0.061)
-0.018
(0.058)
-0.024
(0.060)
-0.046
(0.060)
-0.062
(0.061)
-0.042
(0.067)
-0.009
(0.084)
0.044**
(0.022)
0.021
(0.021)
-0.029
(0.021)
0.041*
(0.023)
0.031
(0.153)
Observations
152
152
152
152
R-squared
0.095
0.205
0.232
0.335
Fonte: Autoria prpria
Nota: Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
-0.014
(0.061)
0.014
(0.060)
0.017
(0.062)
-0.004
(0.054)
-0.012
(0.054)
-0.012
(0.052)
0.059
(0.057)
0.047
(0.066)
-0.012
(0.063)
-0.014
(0.064)
-0.038
(0.065)
-0.024
(0.066)
-0.038
(0.073)
-0.022
(0.091)
0.003
(0.023)
0.005
(0.023)
-0.025
(0.022)
-0.034
(0.025)
0.015
(0.165)
152
0.227
40
Quando observado a tabela 1 possvel notar a correlao negativa de 0.345 entre ter previdncia privada e realizar investimentos em imveis, sendo est a
nica varivel de teste escolhida com relevncia estatstica a impactar na varivel de
escolha investir em imvel ou no. Ou seja, o fato do indivduo ter previdncia privada
impacta negativamente em sua probabilidade de investir em imveis.
41
Fundo
Cambial
Imveis
Ouro
Dinheiro
Jias
Arte
-0.006
(0.032)
0.012
(0.156)
-0.054
(0.088)
0.014
(0.147)
0.138
(0.099)
0.023
(0.072)
0.005
(0.034)
-0.015
(0.166)
0.033
(0.094)
0.066
(0.157)
0.240**
(0.105)
-0.028
(0.077)
0.018
(0.040)
-0.057
(0.196)
0.047
(0.111)
0.149
(0.185)
0.383***
(0.124)
-0.027
(0.091)
0.092**
(0.044)
-0.003
(0.016)
-0.059
(0.088)
-0.079
(0.091)
-0.104
(0.093)
-0.055
(0.095)
-0.088
(0.093)
-0.060
(0.089)
-0.060
(0.090)
-0.046
(0.086)
-0.036
(0.071)
0.018
(0.067)
-0.011
(0.066)
0.002
(0.065)
-0.005
(0.065)
-0.066
(0.213)
0.060
(0.078)
-0.189
(0.429)
-0.162
(0.444)
-0.109
(0.455)
-0.061
(0.464)
0.447
(0.453)
0.427
(0.434)
0.517
(0.439)
0.420
(0.417)
-0.111
(0.347)
-0.016
(0.327)
0.163
(0.319)
0.054
(0.318)
0.082
(0.318)
-0.108
(0.121)
0.051
(0.044)
0.011
(0.243)
0.036
(0.251)
-0.004
(0.258)
0.197
(0.263)
0.142
(0.257)
0.080
(0.246)
0.079
(0.248)
-0.004
(0.236)
0.257
(0.197)
0.040
(0.185)
0.085
(0.181)
0.042
(0.180)
0.077
(0.180)
0.036
(0.202)
-0.031
(0.074)
-0.623
(0.406)
-0.718*
(0.420)
-0.570
(0.431)
-0.637
(0.439)
-0.333
(0.429)
-0.325
(0.411)
-0.282
(0.415)
-0.103
(0.395)
-0.057
(0.329)
-0.171
(0.310)
0.001
(0.302)
-0.048
(0.301)
-0.051
(0.301)
0.388***
(0.135)
0.060
(0.050)
0.124
(0.272)
0.166
(0.282)
0.276
(0.289)
0.359
(0.295)
-0.003
(0.288)
-0.112
(0.275)
-0.090
(0.278)
0.038
(0.265)
0.237
(0.220)
0.133
(0.208)
0.241
(0.203)
0.183
(0.202)
0.046
(0.202)
0.068
(0.099)
0.003
(0.036)
0.111
(0.199)
0.081
(0.206)
0.064
(0.212)
0.020
(0.216)
-0.187
(0.211)
-0.126
(0.202)
-0.143
(0.204)
-0.071
(0.194)
-0.048
(0.161)
-0.022
(0.152)
-0.008
(0.148)
0.051
(0.148)
0.190
(0.148)
42
(continua)
Varivel Poupana Tesouro
2a4
Salrios
Mn.
4 a 10
Salrios
Mn.
10 a 20
Salrios
Mn.
Acima de
20 Salrios
Mn.
Sexo
Solteiro
Casado
Divorciado
Vivo
No
Trabalha
Trabalha c/
CA
Trabalha s/
CA
Empresrio
18/ 25
anos
26/ 35
anos
36/ 45
anos
46/ 60
anos
Acima 61
anos
Debnt.
Cmbio
Aes
Der. e
Futuros
Valorizao
Imvel
-0.055
(0.151)
0.062
(0.125)
0.060
(0.080)
0.042
(0.100)
0.096
(0.107)
0.046
(0.089)
-0.192
(0.168)
-0.026
(0.161)
-0.015
(0.133)
0.134
(0.085)
0.089
(0.106)
0.119
(0.114)
0.120
(0.094)
-0.131
(0.179)
-0.040
(0.190)
0.109
(0.157)
0.145
(0.100)
0.169
(0.126)
0.025
(0.135)
0.006
(0.111)
-0.271
(0.212)
-0.394*
(0.207)
0.040
(0.076)
-0.353
(0.416)
-0.024
(0.431)
0.020
(0.442)
-0.020
(0.451)
-0.053
(0.171)
-0.101
(0.063)
0.397
(0.344)
0.401
(0.356)
0.238
(0.365)
0.380
(0.372)
0.323***
(0.109)
-0.045
(0.040)
0.266
(0.219)
0.224
(0.227)
0.212
(0.233)
0.239
(0.237)
0.208
(0.137)
0.015
(0.050)
0.059
(0.275)
-0.004
(0.285)
-0.024
(0.292)
0.035
(0.298)
0.002
(0.147)
-0.064
(0.054)
0.404
(0.295)
0.273
(0.306)
0.300
(0.314)
0.170
(0.320)
0.079
(0.121)
-0.009
(0.045)
0.281
(0.244)
0.218
(0.253)
0.249
(0.259)
0.165
(0.264)
-0.295
(0.231)
0.111
(0.085)
-0.182
(0.464)
-0.319
(0.480)
-0.232
(0.493)
-0.408
(0.502)
-0.214
(0.440)
-0.232
(0.364)
-0.191
(0.232)
-0.237
(0.291)
-0.768**
(0.312)
-0.385
(0.258)
0.374
(0.491)
-0.157
(0.421)
-0.373
(0.348)
-0.111
(0.222)
-0.101
(0.278)
-0.715**
(0.299)
-0.291
(0.247)
0.153
(0.469)
-0.161
(0.426)
-0.430
(0.405)
-0.308
(0.352)
-0.494
(0.335)
-0.106
(0.224)
-0.115
(0.213)
-0.119
(0.281)
-0.134
(0.268)
-0.823***
(0.302)
-0.546*
(0.288)
-0.314
(0.250)
-0.077
(0.237)
0.138
(0.475)
0.391
(0.452)
0.006
(0.337)
0.366
(0.278)
0.036
(0.178)
0.226
(0.223)
-0.351
(0.239)
0.042
(0.198)
-0.643*
(0.376)
-0.418
(0.318)
0.137
(0.262)
-0.023
(0.167)
0.159
(0.210)
-0.210
(0.226)
-0.025
(0.186)
-0.540
(0.354)
-0.238
(0.310)
-0.110
(0.256)
-0.109
(0.163)
0.009
(0.205)
-0.244
(0.220)
-0.025
(0.182)
-0.431
(0.346)
-0.348
(0.309)
0.018
(0.255)
-0.075
(0.162)
0.015
(0.204)
-0.147
(0.219)
-0.023
(0.181)
-0.328
(0.344)
-0.271
(0.308)
0.115
(0.255)
-0.081
(0.162)
-0.003
(0.204)
-0.171
(0.219)
0.032
(0.181)
-0.012
(0.344)
43
(continua)
Varivel
Educao
Fund. I
Educao
Fund.C
Mdio Incomp.
Mdico Comp.
Superior
Incomp.
Superior
Compl.
Ps-Graduado
No possui
carro
Carro popular
Carro
Compacto
Carro Mdio
Carro Luxo
Carro Esportivo
Carro Esp.
Luxo
Recebeu
Herana
Res. Prpria
Imvel
Prev. Privada
Constant
Observations
R-squared
Inv.
Fundos
Imveis
Ouro
Dinheiro
Jias
Arte
0.005
(0.059)
0.291
(0.288)
-0.004
(0.163)
0.206
(0.273)
0.193
(0.183)
-0.113
(0.134)
-0.019
(0.058)
-0.024
(0.060)
-0.023
(0.053)
-0.102
(0.282)
0.104
(0.292)
0.130
(0.256)
0.068
(0.160)
-0.026
(0.165)
-0.020
(0.145)
0.136
(0.267)
0.005
(0.276)
0.010
(0.243)
-0.088
(0.179)
-0.072
(0.185)
-0.052
(0.163)
-0.095
(0.131)
-0.149
(0.136)
-0.089
(0.119)
-0.024
(0.052)
0.281
(0.254)
-0.071
(0.144)
0.126
(0.240)
0.060
(0.161)
0.068
(0.118)
-0.008
(0.051)
-0.041
(0.055)
0.076
(0.247)
-0.034
(0.267)
0.098
(0.140)
0.229
(0.151)
0.127
(0.234)
0.090
(0.253)
-0.051
(0.157)
-0.051
(0.170)
-0.078
(0.115)
-0.136
(0.124)
-0.019
(0.063)
0.001
(0.061)
0.347
(0.309)
0.544*
(0.295)
-0.152
(0.175)
-0.007
(0.167)
0.321
(0.293)
0.224
(0.280)
0.040
(0.196)
0.192
(0.188)
0.112
(0.144)
0.124
(0.137)
0.056
(0.062)
-0.023
(0.063)
-0.042
(0.064)
-0.015
(0.070)
0.646**
(0.304)
0.656**
(0.306)
0.558*
(0.311)
0.759**
(0.343)
0.062
(0.172)
-0.025
(0.173)
-0.046
(0.176)
-0.135
(0.194)
0.030
(0.287)
0.090
(0.290)
0.226
(0.295)
0.292
(0.324)
0.023
(0.193)
-0.023
(0.194)
-0.001
(0.198)
0.136
(0.217)
0.118
(0.141)
0.184
(0.142)
0.208
(0.145)
0.100
(0.159)
-0.046
(0.088)
0.634
(0.427)
-0.190
(0.242)
0.107
(0.405)
0.065
(0.271)
0.140
(0.199)
0.054**
(0.023)
-0.026
(0.022)
-0.027
(0.022)
0.015
(0.024)
0.172
(0.159)
-0.135
(0.110)
-0.329***
(0.109)
0.240**
(0.105)
-0.128
(0.117)
0.025
(0.777)
-0.063
(0.062)
-0.029
(0.061)
-0.017
(0.059)
-0.045
(0.066)
-0.123
(0.440)
0.169
(0.104)
-0.048
(0.103)
-0.207**
(0.099)
-0.173
(0.111)
0.929
(0.735)
-0.016
(0.070)
-0.016
(0.069)
-0.109
(0.067)
-0.090
(0.074)
-0.471
(0.493)
-0.031
(0.051)
-0.007
(0.050)
-0.070
(0.049)
-0.040
(0.054)
0.032
(0.361)
152
0.276
152
0.252
152
0.277
152
0.267
152
0.326
152
0.237
44
(concluso)
Varivel
Educao
Fund. I
Educao
Fund.C
Mdio
Incomp.
Mdico
Comp.
Superior
Incomp.
Superior
Compl.
PsGraduado
No
possui
carro
Carro
popular
Carro
Compacto
Carro
Mdio
Carro
Luxo
Carro
Esportivo
Carro
Esp. Luxo
Recebeu
Herana
Res.
prpria
Imvel
Prev.
privada
Constant
Aes
0.268
(0.280)
-0.362
(0.231)
-0.003
(0.147)
0.031
(0.185)
-0.416**
(0.199)
-0.379**
(0.164)
-0.236
(0.312)
0.177
(0.274)
-0.157
(0.226)
0.091
(0.144)
0.134
(0.181)
-0.350*
(0.194)
-0.245
(0.160)
-0.455
(0.305)
0.362
(0.283)
-0.276
(0.234)
0.077
(0.149)
0.083
(0.187)
-0.258
(0.201)
-0.248
(0.166)
-0.100
(0.316)
0.298
(0.249)
-0.202
(0.206)
0.050
(0.131)
0.041
(0.164)
-0.367**
(0.177)
-0.297**
(0.146)
0.130
(0.277)
0.088
(0.247)
-0.448**
(0.204)
0.092
(0.130)
-0.040
(0.163)
-0.094
(0.175)
-0.186
(0.144)
0.080
(0.275)
0.019
(0.240)
0.001
(0.198)
0.082
(0.126)
0.040
(0.159)
-0.311*
(0.170)
-0.313**
(0.141)
0.109
(0.268)
0.057
(0.260)
0.130
(0.214)
-0.037
(0.137)
0.120
(0.172)
0.269
(0.184)
-0.112
(0.152)
0.239
(0.289)
-0.343
(0.300)
-0.107
(0.248)
0.168
(0.158)
0.019
(0.198)
0.406*
(0.213)
0.243
(0.176)
0.252
(0.334)
-0.180
(0.287)
-0.210
(0.237)
-0.001
(0.151)
-0.098
(0.190)
0.143
(0.204)
0.050
(0.168)
0.329
(0.320)
-0.452
(0.295)
-0.076
(0.243)
0.049
(0.155)
0.007
(0.195)
0.111
(0.209)
0.007
(0.173)
0.382
(0.329)
-0.270
(0.297)
-0.010
(0.246)
-0.026
(0.157)
-0.109
(0.196)
-0.008
(0.211)
0.074
(0.174)
0.503
(0.331)
-0.285
(0.302)
-0.029
(0.250)
0.017
(0.159)
-0.018
(0.200)
0.063
(0.214)
0.037
(0.177)
0.493
(0.337)
-0.044
(0.333)
-0.045
(0.275)
-0.017
(0.175)
0.139
(0.220)
-0.080
(0.236)
-0.012
(0.195)
0.515
(0.371)
0.068
(0.415)
0.039
(0.343)
-0.118
(0.219)
-0.180
(0.274)
0.166
(0.295)
0.055
(0.243)
0.543
(0.463)
0.224**
(0.107)
0.128
(0.088)
0.088
(0.056)
-0.078
(0.071)
0.163**
(0.076)
-0.019
(0.063)
-0.013
(0.119)
-0.101
(0.105)
-0.061
(0.102)
-0.040
(0.087)
-0.047
(0.084)
-0.051
(0.056)
-0.098*
(0.054)
0.015
(0.070)
-0.012
(0.067)
0.141*
(0.075)
-0.214***
(0.072)
-0.001
(0.062)
-0.052
(0.060)
-0.287**
(0.117)
-0.163
(0.114)
-0.091
(0.114)
1.518**
(0.755)
0.192**
(0.094)
0.360
(0.623)
0.056
(0.060)
-0.165
(0.397)
0.204***
(0.075)
-0.010
(0.498)
0.297***
(0.081)
0.710
(0.535)
0.099
(0.067)
0.241
(0.442)
-0.103
(0.127)
1.129
(0.841)
45
Observ.
152
152
152
152
Rsquared
0.503
0.532
0.411
0.364
Fonte: Elaborao prpria
Nota: Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
152
152
152
0.552
0.347
0.404
Por fim, possvel notar que a maior das correlaes negativas observada
em continuar ou no investindo em imveis a despeito da desvalorizao destes
ocorre na faixa etria entre 18 e 25 anos (-0.643 contra -0.012 da faixa maior de 61
anos), sugerindo que esta categoria mais jovem seria a que mais rapidamente
incorporaria informaes externas para rpidos ajustes no portflio.
46
5 CONCLUSO
47
REFERNCIAS
FAMA, Eugene. Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work.
The Journal of Finance, 1969.
48
ANEXO
2. Estado Civil
( ) Solteiro
( ) Casado
( ) Vivo
( ) Divorciado
4. Idade
( ) 18 a 25 anos
( ) 26 a 35 anos
( ) 36 a 45 anos
( ) 46 a 60 anos
( ) 61 anos ou mais
49
7. Possui automvel?
( ) No
( ) Popular
( ) Compacto
( ) Sedan/Hatch/SUV Mdio
( ) Sedan/Hatch/SUV Luxo
( ) Esportivo
( ) Esportivo de Luxo
8. Recebeu herana?
( ) Sim
( ) No
9. De que forma?
( ) Imveis
( ) Aplicaes financeiras
( ) Jias
( ) Arte
( ) Aes
( ) Outro. Especifique
10. Possui residncia prpria?
( ) Sim
( ) No
11. Possui mais do que um imvel?
( ) Sim
( ) No
50
( ) Sim
( ) No