Duration Calculation

Time Estimates (weeks)

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H

Optimistic
(o)
1
1
4
1
4
1
1
6

Pessimistic
(p)
3
1
5
1
6
1
2
8

Duration
(weeks)

Mean
(m)
4
2
9
1
12
2
3
10

d=
(o+4m+p)/6
3.33
1.67
7.50
1.00
9.67
1.67
2.50
9.00

Network Diagram

Critical Path
Paths:

ADGH = 15.83 weeks

BGH

= 13.17 weeks

CEFGH

= 30.34 weeks = Critical Path

s = s along critical path = 1 = v2

Standar
d
Deviatio
n
s = (po)/6
0.33
0.00
0.17
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.17
0.33

Probabilities

P ( x T )=P Z

T E [ x ]
v [ x ]

Since expected duration not given, assume critical path to be expected duration.
T 22 weeks

P ( x 22 ) =P Z

2230.34
=8.34
1

Since this value is less than -3.4, the probability is less than 0.02%
T 30.33 weeks (Critical Path)

P ( x 30.33 )=P Z

30.3430.34
=0
1

From the Z score table probability = 50%

T 30 weeks

P ( x 30 )=1P Z

3030.34
=1P ( Z 0.34 )=10.63=0.37=37
1

The probability of this occurring is 37%

Completion time associated with 95% probability
Z = 1.65

P Z

T 30.34
=1.65
1

T = 31.99 weeks

Question 9.19

b)

Total Slack -

C, E, F, G, H = 0
A = 8 weeks
B = 11 weeks
D = 8 weeks

Free Slack = ES of successor - EF

Free Slack -

B = 11 weeks
D = 8 weeks

The total slack of the activities are the amount these activities can be delayed
without affecting the critical path duration.
The free slacks are the amount the activities can be delayed without affecting the
early start of their successor.
c) Critical Path = CEFGH = 22 weeks, which is the longest path through the network
and with no float.
d) Gantt Chart

Question 9.20
Duration Calculation

Time Estimates (weeks)

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H

Optimistic
(o)
1
1
4
1
4
1
1
6

Pessimistic
(p)
3
1
5
1
6
1
2
8

Duration
(weeks)

Mean
(m)
4
2
9
1
12
2
3
10

d=
(o+4m+p)/6
3.33
1.67
7.50
1.00
9.67
1.67
2.50
9.00

Network Diagram

Critical Path
Paths:

ADGH = 15.83 weeks

BGH

= 13.17 weeks

CEFGH

= 30.34 weeks = Critical Path

The critical path has not changed from 9.19

s = s along critical path = 1 = v2

Floats

Standar
d
Deviatio
n
s = (po)/6
0.33
0.00
0.17
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.17
0.33

Total Slack -

C, E, F, G, H = 0
A = 14.51 weeks
B = 17.17 weeks
D = 14.51 weeks

Free Slack = ES of successor - EF

Free Slack -

B = 17.17 weeks
D = 14.51 weeks

Slacks are greater than 19.19 but follow the same trend.

Probabilities

P ( x T )=P Z

T E [ x ]
v [ x ]

Since expected duration not given, assume critical path to be expected duration.
T 22 weeks

P ( x 22 ) =P Z

2230.34
=8.34
1

Since this value is less than -3.4, the probability is less than 0.02%
T 30.33 weeks (Critical Path)

P ( x 30.33 )=P Z

30.3430.34
=0
1

From the Z score table probability = 50%

T 30 weeks

P ( x 30 )=1P Z

3030.34
=1P ( Z 0.34 )=10.6293=0.37=37
1

The probability of this occurring is almost 17%

Completion time associated with 95% probability
Z = 1.65

P Z

T 30.34
=1.65
1

T = 31.99 weeks

Question 9.23
Time Estimates (weeks)

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K

Optimistic
(o)
25
10
20
3
5
1
4
2
4
8
6

Pessimistic
(p)
45
20
35
5
12
1
7
3
6
14
15

Duration
(days)
Mean
(m)
30
15
25
3
7
1
5
2
4
10
8

d=
(o+4m+p)/6
32.00
15.00
26.00
3.50
7.50
1.00
5.50
2.50
4.50
10.50
9.00

All durations are rounded up to the nearest half day.

Critical Path: in this case there are two critical paths
ADHJK = 57.5 days
CEIJK = 57.5 days

Floats
Total Float
B = 17.5 days
F = 17.5 days
G = 7.5 days
Free Float

,s = 6.33
,s = 6.5

Standard
Deviatio
n
s = (po)/6
3.33
1.67
2.50
0.33
1.17
0.00
0.50
0.17
0.33
1.00
1.50

G = 7.5 days
F = 17.5 days
Probabilities
Assuming project duration = critical path = 57.5 days
54 days

P ( x 54 )=P Z

5457.5
=0.54
6.5

From Z score table probability = 0.2946 = 29.46%

critical path

P ( x 54 )=P Z

57.557.5
=0
6.5

From Z score table probability = 0.5 = 50%

70 days

P ( x 30 )=1P Z

7057.5
=1P ( Z 1.92 )=10.9726=0.0274
6.5

Therefore the probability the project takes more than 70 days to complete is 2.74%