Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Exercise
Discrete or Continuous?
1
Population in a particular state of India.
2
Total weight of consignments handled by a courier
company in a day.
3
Time to complete an exam.
4
Number of participants in an exit poll.
Exercise
Discrete or Continuous?
1
Total number of goals scored in a hockey game.
2
Life of a particular medicine.
3
Height of the Oceans tide at a given location.
4
Amount of rain on a particular day.
5
Number of train derailments in a year.
Probability Distribution
Discrete P. D.
The probability distribution of a discrete random variable is
called a discrete probability distribution.
Let X be a discrete random variable which takes values from
the set {x1 , x2 , . . . , xn }.
If P(x) is the probability distribution of X , then
0 P(xi ) 1, for all i and
Pn
i=1 P(xi ) = 1.
Note that, in general, n might tend to .
Exercise
1
-2 3
0.3 0.3 0.2
Exercise
0
1
2
3
0.25 0.50 0.20 0.0
Expected Value
Given a random variable (R.V.) X , the expected value or mean
of X , E (X ) or is the mean of the values of the R.V.
obtained in n draws from the distribution of X as n .
Pn
i=1 xi
P(xi )
2 = E[(X )2 ] =
Pn
i=1 (xi
)2 P(xi ).
Exercise
1
2
0.3 0.3
3 4
? 0.1
Exercise (continued...)
a) Find P(3).
Exercise (continued...)
a) Find P(3).
Ans. 1-0.8=0.2
Exercise (continued...)
a) Find P(3).
Ans. 1-0.8=0.2
Exercise (continued...)
a) Find P(3).
Ans. 1-0.8=0.2
Exercise (continued...)
Exercise
You can insure a $50, 000 diamond for its total value by a
premium of D dollars. If the probability of theft in a given year
is estimated to be 0.01, what premium should the insurance
company charge if it wants the expected gain equal to $1000?
Bernoulli Experiment
Example
1
2
3
4
5
Toss of a coin.
Choice of voters (Democratic candidate or Republican
candidate).
An item is defective or not.
Pass or fail.
Have a disease when you have certain symptoms or does
not have the disease.
Binomial Experiment
Binomial Experiment
Exercise
A jar contains five balls: three red and two white. Two balls
are randomly selected without replacement from the jar, and
the number of x red balls are recorded. Explain why x is or is
not a binomial random variable?
Binomial Distribution
Probability of k successes is p k .
Probability of n k failures is (1 p)nk .
k successes in n trials can happen in kn ways.
Exercise
Exercise (continued...)
b) P(x 4)
Exercise (continued...)
c) P(x > 4)
Exercise (continued...)
d) P(x 4)
Mean=np.
Variance=np(1 p) = npq.
Exercise (continued...)
Poisson distribution
Assumption
Example
Poisson Distribution
k e
,
k!
Mean=.
Variance= .
Standard deviation=
Exercise
Exercise
b) P(X = 1)
c) P(X > 1)
Exercise
d) P(X = 5)
Exercise
Airport Safety: The increased number of small commuter
planes in major airports has heightened concern over air safety.
An eastern airport has recorded a monthly average of five near
misses on landings and takeoffs in the past 5 years.
1
Find the probability that during a given month there are
no near-misses on landings and takeoffs at the airport.
2
Find the probability that during a given month there are
five near-misses.
3
Find the probability that there are at least five
near-misses during a particular month.
Exercise
Exercise