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  • Math + Statistics Great Beach Reading

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    Peter Orszag
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    If you have a vacation coming up in August and you’re looking for a fun book to read that will also enlighten you, it would be hard to beat Jordan Ellenberg’s “How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking.” Ellenberg, a math professor at the University of Wisconsin, shows how mathematics and statistics help us understand the world better -- but does so in a way that skips the formalities and allows everyone to follow the argument. And the lessons are powerful.

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    Math + Statistics = Great Beach Reading

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    If you have a vacation coming up in August and you’re looking for a fun book to read that will also enlighten you, it would be hard to beat Jordan Ellenberg’s “How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking.” Ellenberg, a math professor at the University of Wisconsin, shows how mathematics and statistics help us understand the world better -- but does so in a way that skips the formalities and allows everyone to follow the argument. And the lessons are powerful.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    23 views3 pages

    Math + Statistics Great Beach Reading

    Uploaded by

    Peter Orszag
    If you have a vacation coming up in August and you’re looking for a fun book to read that will also enlighten you, it would be hard to beat Jordan Ellenberg’s “How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking.” Ellenberg, a math professor at the University of Wisconsin, shows how mathematics and statistics help us understand the world better -- but does so in a way that skips the formalities and allows everyone to follow the argument. And the lessons are powerful.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 3

    6/16/2015

    Math + Statistics = Great Beach Reading - Bloomberg View

    S C IE N C E

    Math+Statistics=GreatBeach
    Reading

    JUL29,20148:03AMEDT

    ByPeterR.Orszag

    aA

    IfyouhaveavacationcomingupinAugustandyourelookingforafunbooktoreadthatwill
    alsoenlightenyou,itwouldbehardtobeatJordanEllenbergsHowNottoBeWrong:The
    PowerofMathematicalThinking.Ellenberg,amathprofessorattheUniversityofWisconsin,
    showshowmathematicsandstatisticshelpusunderstandtheworldbetterbutdoessoinaway
    thatskipstheformalitiesandallowseveryonetofollowtheargument.Andthelessonsare
    powerful.
    Heresanexample.DuringWorldWarII,theU.S.militarywastryingtooptimizethearmor
    platingonitsairplanes.Officialsnoticedthatthebulletholesinplanesreturningfromcombatin
    Europefollowedcertainpatterns:Thereweremorepersquarefootinthefuselagethaninthe
    enginesection.Theyfiguredthattheythereforeneededtoaddmoreprotectiontothefuselage,but
    wantedhelpindetermininghowmuchmoretobalancetheextraprotectionagainstthelossof
    fuelefficiencyandmaneuverability.
    ThemilitarytookthisproblemtoAbrahamWaldoftheStatisticalResearchGroup.Wald,who
    spentmostofhiscareerasastatisticsprofessoratColumbiaUniversity,camebackwitha
    surprisinganswer:Addnoplatingtothefuselage.Instead,addittotheenginearea.
    Wald'sreasonwasthatunlesstheenemywasforsomeoddreasonsuccessfullytargetingthe
    fuselages,thebulletholesonthereturningplanesshowedwheretheplanescouldwithstandattack
    andstillsurvive.Thepaucityofbulletholesontheenginecasingsofthereturningplanes
    suggestedthathitstothatareatendedtobringdowntheplane.Returningplanes,inotherwords,
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-29/math-statistics-great-beach-reading

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    6/16/2015

    Math + Statistics = Great Beach Reading - Bloomberg View

    wereabiasedsampleoftheplanesthatwereattacked.Thelesson:Thinkaboutwherethebullet
    holesarent.
    AnotherexampleofsubtlebiasesinvolvesBerksonsfallacy,namedafterthemedicalstatistician
    JosephBerkson.Assume,forexample,thatsomeonehasnoticedthateconomistshardlyeverdrink
    DietCokeand,toseeiftheobservationisstatisticallycorrect,gathersinformationabouteveryone
    whodrinksDietCokeandeveryonewhoisaneconomist.Berksonsfallacyshowsthattheresult
    willsuggestanegativecorrelationbetweenDietCokeandbeinganeconomist,evenifthereisnt
    one.
    Why?Assumethereare1,000peopleinasmalltownwheretheanalystdecidestothestudythe
    subject:250residentsdrinkDietCoke,200ofthemareeconomists,and50ofthemareeconomists
    whodrinkDietCoke.AnanalysisofthosewhoeitherdrinkDietCokeorareeconomistswould
    include50economistswhodrinkDietCoke,150economistswhodontdrinkDietCoke,and200
    noneconomistswhodrinkDietCoke.Theanalysiswouldthussuggestthateconomistsweremuch
    lesslikelytodrinkDietCoke(50outof250)thannoneconomists(200outof200).
    Youcanseetheheadlines:DrinkDietCokeifyouwanttoavoidbeinganeconomist!Butthat
    conclusionwouldbewrongfortworeasons.Thefirst,asyoumayalreadyknow,isthatcorrelation
    isnotcausation.Berksonsfallacy,though,suggeststhecorrelationitselfismisleading.Inreality,
    25percentofbotheconomistsandnoneconomistsdrinkDietCokethereisnocorrelation
    betweenoneandtheother.(Theproblemisthatthesurveydidnotincludethenoneconomists
    whodontdrinkDietCoke.)
    EllenbergshowshowmanyrealworldconclusionssufferfromBerksonsfallacyevenromantic
    frustrations(includedinasectionpartiallytitledwhyarehandsomemensuchjerks?).Healso
    writesabouthothandsinbasketball,astatisticalanalysisoftheBibleandhowunlikelyeventscan
    happenalot,ifgivenenoughchances.
    OurpublicdiscoursewouldbemuchimprovedifthebasiclessonsofHowNottoBeWrong
    werebetterappreciatedincludinghoweasyitistobemisledbystatisticalbiasesandsimplistic
    extrapolations.Andthoughthetopicsareweighty,Ellenbergswritingisnot.Itmightjustbethe
    firstmathbookyoucanenjoyreadingonthebeach.
    Tocontactthewriterofthisarticle:PeterOrszagatorszagbloomberg@gmail.com.
    Tocontacttheeditorresponsibleforthisarticle:MaryDuenwaldatmduenwald@bloomberg.net.
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-29/math-statistics-great-beach-reading

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    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-29/math-statistics-great-beach-reading

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