ACJC 2015 JC2 H2 Mathematics REVISION SET G

Solutions to Binomial and Poisson Distributions

1(i)

Let X be the number of students out of n who use AIKON brand mobile phones.
1

When n = 30, X ~ B 30,

5

1
Expected number of students who use AIKON brand phone = 30 6
5
P X 5 0.172 .

1(ii)

P X 1 0.99 1 P X 0 0.99
n

2(i)

2(ii)
2(last
part)
3(i)

3(ii)
3(last
part)

4
[alternatively, use GC Y1= binompdf()]
P X 0 0.01 0.01
5
lg 0.01
n
20.6
4
lg
5
Hence least n = 21.
Required probability = 1 P( all seeds selected do not germinate)
16 15 14 13 12 232
1
.
20 19 18 17 16 323
Let X be the number of seeds that germinate, out of 5. X ~ B(5, 0.10)
Required probability P( X 1) 1 P( X 1) = 1 0.91854 = 0.0815.
Binomial distribution is used in part (ii) based on the assumption that the
probability of success is a constant when the sample size is small as compared to a
large population.
Let X = no of print jobs sent to the colour printer and Y = no of print jobs sent to
the laser printer
For a day , X + Y ~ Po(1.2 ) (independence)
P( X Y 0) 0.01
e(1.2 ) 0.01
1.2 4.605170186 3.41.
For a day , X + Y ~ Po(4.61)
P( X Y 3) 0.163 (3 s.f.).
In 1 hr, let X ~ Po(0.15) , Y ~ Po(0.42625) , X + Y ~Po (0.57625)
In 7 hrs, let A ~ Po(1.05) , B ~ Po(2.98375) , A + B ~ Po (4.03375)
Prob req =
(Prob of 2 jobs in 1st hr, 1 job in next 7 hrs) + (Prob of 3 jobs in 1st hr, 0 job in next 7 hrs)
Prob of 3 jobs in a day

P( X Y 2) P( A B 1) P( X Y 3) P( A B 0)
0.16250022
0.09331032 0.07142884 0.01792335 0.0177078

0.0430 (3s.f.) .
0.16250022
Let W be the random variable no. of air bubbles in 1 randomly chosen plastic
1
sheet. Then W ~ Po(2 )
P(W 3) = 1 P(W 2) = 0.0143877 0.0144 (to 3 s.f.) (shown).

4(i)

4(ii)

Let V be the random variable no. of air bubbles in 5 randomly chosen plastic
1
sheets. Then V ~ Po(2 5) = Po(2.5)
Using GC,

4(iii)

4(iv)

5(i)

P(V = 1) = 0.2052
P(V = 2) = 0.2565 (highest probability)
P(V = 3) = 0.2138
Hence the most likely number of air bubbles is 2.
Let X be the random variable no. of plastic sheets with at least 3 air bubbles out of
15 plastic sheets. Then X ~ B(15, 0.0144)
P(X 2) = 1 P(X 1) = 0.0192244 0.0192.
Let Y be the random variable no. of rejected crates out of 100 crates.
Then Y ~ B(100, 0.0192244)
Since n = 100 > 50 and np < 5, Y ~ Po(1.92244) approximately
P(Y < 2) = P(Y 1) = 0.42741 0.427.
Let X be the number of arrivals at the airport in a two-hour period. X ~ Po 8

P X 13 1 P X 12 0.063797 0.0638 .
5(ii)

Let W be the number of arrivals in a one-hour period.

Let Y be the number of departures in a one-hour period.
W ~ Po 4 ; Y ~ Po 3 ; W Y ~ Po 7

P Y 2 | W Y 9

P Y 2 W Y 9
P W Y 9

P Y 0, W 9 P Y 1, W 8 P Y 0 P W 9 P Y 1 P W 8

P W Y 9
P W Y 9

0.0051052524
0.0503453384 0.0503 (ans).
0.1014046695
(1) There are two mutually exclusive outcomes, either there are at least 13 arrivals
in each two-hour period or there arent.
(2) The probability of having at least 13 arrivals for each two hour period remains
constant for each of the 60 two-hour periods.
(3) There is a fixed number of 60 two-hour periods independently selected under
consideration.
Let V be the number of two-hour periods, out of 60, with at least 13 arrivals each.
V ~ B 60, P X 13

5(iii)

5(iv)

Since n = 60 ( > 50, large) and p P X 13 0.0638 ( < 0.1, small), such that
np = 3.828 ( < 5), we have V ~ Po 3.828 approximately.
At most 50 two-hour periods with less than 13 arrivals each means the same as at
least 10 two-hour periods with at least 13 arrivals each.
P V 10 1 P V 9 0.0060899731 = 0.00609
Note:
Students may choose to use the more accurate value for
P X 13 0.0637971966 .
If they do so, the following values will be obtained:
np = 3.827831796 and V ~ Po 3.827831796

P V 10 0.0060881936 = 0.00609.
6(i)

(i) Let X be the number of employees, out of n , with good performance.

X B n, 0.26

P( X 1) 0.96

1 P( X 0) 0.96
P( X 0) 0.04
n
0
n 0
0.26 1 0.26 0.04
0
ln 0.04

n
ln 0.74

0.74

0.04

6(ii)

Thus greatest n 10 .
n 10.6902
Let Y be the number of employees, out of 120, with excellent performance.
Y B 120, 0.04 Po 4.8 since n is large and np < 5.

6(iii)

P(Y 7) 1 P(Y 7) 0.113 .

Let W be the number of employees, out of 20, with average or poor performance.
W B 20, 0.7

P W 12 W 17

P W 12 W 17
P W 17

P 12 W 16 P W 16 P W 11

P W 16
P W 16
0.8929131955 0.1133314628
0.873 .

0.8929131955
The average number of incoming calls received per hour is constant throughout the
opening hours of the mall.
OR
The probability of 2 or more incoming calls received in a very short interval of
time is negligible.
Let X be the number of incoming calls received in an hour. X ~ Po 6.75 .

7(i)

7(ii)

P X 8 1 P X 7 0.364 (3sf) .
7(iii)

Required probability is P X 6 P X 7 P X 8
2

0.48759 0.14832 0.36409

2

7(iv)

Y ~ Po 81 . So 81 , 9 .

4!
2!

4!
0.115 (3sf) .
2!

Since 81 10 , Y ~ N 81, 92 approximately.

P 81 9 Y 81 9 P 72 Y 90
P 72.5 Y 89.5 by continuity correction

7(v)

0.6551 (4dp).
Let W be the number of busy days in 14 days.
W ~ B 14, P Y 90 ,that is, W ~ B 14, 0.14593 .

Required probability is
P W 2 P Y 90 0.29191 0.14593 0.0426 (3sf).
3

8(i)

Let X be the number of calls made in a one-hour period. X ~ Po(9)

P( X 9) 1 P( X 9) 0.413 (to 3 sf) (Shown).
Let Y be the number of periods where more than 9 calls are made out of k
periods.
Y ~ B(k , 0.413)
Y ~ N (0.413k , 0.2424k ) approximately
Given that P(Y 20) >0.9
P(Y 19.5) 0.9
P(Y 19.5) 0.1

19.5 0.413k

PZ
0.1
0.2424k

19.5 0.413k
1.282
0.2424k

8(ii)

9(a)

19.5 0.413k 1.282 0.2424k

k 47.2 1.53 k .
Let T be the total number of calls made in one day. T ~ Po(90)
Since 10 , T ~ N (90,90) approximately.
P(90 T 100) P(89.5 T 99.5) after continuity correction.
= 0.363 (to 3 sf).
X ~ Bn, p
n k 1
n k 1

p 1 p
pk 1 k 1

, k 0, 1, 2, ..., n 1.
pk
n k
nk
p 1 p
k
n!
p
k 1 ! n k 1!

n!
(1 p)
k ! n k !

k !(n k )! p
(n k ) p

(shown)
(k 1)!(n k 1)!1 p (k 1)(1 p)

p
1
When n = 10 and p , if pk pk 1 , then k 1 1 ,
3
pk
1
10 k
8
3
1 10 k 2(k 1) 3k 8 k
2
3
k 1
3
Thus k = 3, 4, ., 9. So p3 p4 ... p10
8
Conversely, if pk pk 1 , then k .
3
Thus k = 0, 1, 2 . So, p0 p1 p2 p3 .
Since p3 is the greatest, therefore the most probable number of successes is 3.
4

9(b)(i)

9(b)(ii)

9(last
part)

10(i)

10(ii)

Let X be the no. of adults, out of 8, having some knowledge of a foreign language.
X B(8,0.3)
P( X 2) 0.552 (3 s.f.).
Let Y be the no. of adults, out of 400, having some knowledge of a foreign
language.
Y B(400, 0.3)
Since n = 400 is large, np 120 5 and nq 280 5 ,
Y ~ N(120 , 280 0.3) i.e Y ~ N(120, 84) approximately.
P( Y n) 0.9 P( Y n 0.5) 0.9 using continuity correction
From GC, when n 132, P(Y n 0.5) 0.89522 0.9
when n 133, P(Y n 0.5) 0.91369 0.9
Least value of n =133.
Let T be the no. of adults, out of 400, having some knowledge of the particular
foreign language. T B(400, 0.01)
Since n = 400 is large and np 4 5 , T ~ Po(4) approximately.
P (T 4) = 0.629 (3 s.f.).
Let X denote the demand for GreatRun tyres in a randomly chosen month.
X ~ Po(4)
Required prob. = P X 5 = 0.7851303874 = 0.785 (3 s.f.).
Using GC,
No. of tyres sold, x
0
1
2
3
4
5

10(iii)

10(v)

P(X = 1) = 0.07326
P(X = 2) = 0.14653
P(X = 3) = 0.19537
P(X = 4) = 0.19537

P X 5 = 0.37116

Hence, the most probable number of tyres sold is 5.

Let the number of tyres the garage should keep in stock be N.
P X N 0.001
1 P X N 0.001
Using GC,

10(iv)

Prob.
P(X = 0) = 0.01832

P X N

0.00284 > 0.001

10
0.000915
< 0.001
11
Hence the least number of tyres the garage should keep in stock at the beginning of
the month is 11.
Let Y denote the demand for GreatRun tyres in a randomly chosen week.
Y ~ Po(1)
P Y 1 1 P Y 1 = 0.2642411176
Let W denote the number of weeks where more than 1 GreatRun tyre is sold out of
4 weeks.
W ~ B(4, 0.26424)
Required prob. = P W 2 1 P W 2 = 0.059174 = 0.0592 (3 s.f.)

Let A denote the number of months the garage was not able to meet monthly
5

demands out of 120 months.

A ~ B(120, 1 0.78513) i.e. A ~ B(120, 0.21487)
Since n = 120 is large, np = 25.7844 > 5, nq = 20.24410597 > 5,
A ~ N(25.7844, 20.24410597) i.e. A ~ N(25.784, 20.244) approximately
Required prob. = P A 36 | A 12

P A 36 A 12
P A 12

P A 36
P A 12

P A 35.5
P A 12.5

by continuity correction

0.015432
11(a)(i)

11(a)(ii
)

11(b)

11(c)

0.0154 (3 s.f.).
Let X denote the random variable for the number of demands per hour for a court
in this sports hall on a weekend. Then X Po(7.2)
P(courts are fully booked on a particular time slot on a Saturday)
P( X 6) 1 P( X 5) 0.7241025 0.724(shown).
Let Y denote the random variable for the number of hours on an entire weekend for
which the courts are fully booked. Then Y B(30, 0.7241025).
Since n 30 is large, np 21.723 5, n(1 p) 8.2769 5,
Y N(21.723, 5.9933) approximately.
P(the courts are fully booked for at least 20 randomly chosen hours on both Saturday
and Sunday of a particular week)
P(Y 20) P(Y 19.5) (by Continuity correction)
0.81807 0.818 (to 3 significant figures).
By plotting Y1 poissonpdf (21.6, x) in GC and using the Table function (as
below)

From the GC, most probable value is 21.

Let X denote the average number of demands for a court between 0700
and 0800 per Sunday for 52 randomly chosen Sundays.
Since n = 52 is large, by Central Limit Theorem,

7.2

N 7.2,
approx .
52

P X 7 0.2954667 0.295
Alternative method:
6

X1 X 2

Po 374.4

X 52

Since 374.4 10 ,

X1 X 2

X 52

N 374.4, 374.4 approx

X X 2 X 52

P X 7 P 1
7
52

P X 1 X 2 X 52 364

11(d)(i)

11(d)(ii
)
12(a)(i)
12(a)(ii
)

12(b)(i)

12(b)(ii
)

13(i)

13(ii)

P X 1 X 2 X 52 364.5 0.304450 0.304.

The probability that one of the courts is booked will be affected by the event that
another court is booked. Hence the trials do not occur independently (the
probability of a court being booked is not consistent) and so a binomial model
would probably not be valid.
As people have to work during weekdays, the average number of demands will be
fewer on the weekdays. Hence the mean on the weekday is different from that on a
weekend.
Let X denote the no of patients out of 20 who will not recover. X B(20,0.02)
P( X 2) 1 P( X 2) 0.00707 .
Let Y denote the no of sample out of 50 that has more than half patient who
0.392
will not recover. Y N(0.4,
) approximately by CLT
50
P(Y 0.5) 0.129 .
Let Y denote the no of patients out of 50 who will recover. Y B(50, p)
P(Y 48) 0.64
P(Y 48) 0.36
From GC, p = 0.97481 = 0.975 (3 sig fig).
Let Y denote the no of patients out of 50 who will recover. Y B(50,0.97481)
Let Y denote the no of patients out of 50 who will not recover.
Y ' B(50,0.02519)
Since n > 50, p < 0.1, np = 1.2595 < 5, Y ' Po (1.2595) approximately
So P(Y 46) P(Y ' 5) 1 P(Y ' 4) = 0.00940.
Let X be the number of flaws in a roll of a particular design of wallpaper.
Then X Po(0.15) .
Required probability 2P( X 1)P( X 1) 2P( X 1) 1 P( X 1)
0.00263 (3 s.f.).

0.15
Since n 50 is large, by Central Limit Theorem, X N 0.15,
approx.
50

ie. X N 0.15, 0.003 approximately.

14(a)

P( X 0.3) 0.00309 (3 s.f.).

X ~ B(n, p)
npq 54 np q

4
5

P( X 1) 0.92
1 P( X 0) 0.92
P( X 0) 0.08

and p 15


4
5

14(b)

0.8 0.0859 0.08

12
0.8 0.0687 0.08
11

0.08

OR

n 11.3
Least value of n is 12.
X ~ B(8, 13 ) so E ( X ) 83 and Var ( X ) 16
9
By CLT, S ~ N ( 83 60,

15(i)

15(ii)

15(iii)

15(iv)

15(last
part)
16(i)

16(ii)

16(iii)
16(iv)

16 60)
9

or S ~ N (160,

320 )
3

P(S 162) 0.423 (3 s.f).

1. Each of the students is equally likely to answer the question correctly (i.e.
constant p throughout all trials)
2. Whether a student answers the question correctly or not is independent of the
other students doing so.
Let X be the random variable no of students out of 30 students who could do the
Differential Equation question. X ~ B(30,0.3)
P(X 6) =1 P(X 5) =0.92341 0.923 .
Let S be the r.v. no of students out of 8 who could do that question. S~B(8, 0.3)
Let T be the r.v no of students out of 22 who could do that question. T~B(22,
0.3)
P(S=2)P(T 4)
P(only 2 among first 8 could do that question| X 6) =
0.299 .
P(X 6)
Let Y be the r.v. no of students out of n who could do that question.
Y ~ B(n,0.3)
P(Y 5) >0.9

From G.C,
Therefore the largest possible value of n is 11.
6.3
Since sample size = 50 is large, X ~ N (9, ) approx by Central Limit Theorem
50
P( X 10) 0.00242 .
Let X be the number of requests for cars on a particular day. X ~ Po(4)
Let Y be the number of requests for vans on a particular day. Y ~ Po(2)
Let T be the number of requests for vehicles on a particular day. T ~ Po(6)
prob.reqd P(T 11) 1 P(T 11) 0.0201 .
Either demand for a car or a van is not met. Thus
prob.reqd P( X 7 or Y 4) 1 P( X 7 and Y 4)
1 P( X 7) P(Y 4) 0.101.
The event in (i) is a subset of the event in (ii). Thus the value obtained in (i) will be
smaller.
(i)
Let n be the number of days needed. Assume that n is large. By Central
6
Limit Theorem, T ~ N 6, approx.
n

P(T 7) 0.001

76
PZ
0.001
6

n
P Z
0.999
6

n
3.09023 n 57.3
6
Thus least number of days required is 58.
Let X be the number of students who make enquiries at the Police Force's booth
1
(out of 25). X B(25, )
6
P( X 10) P( X 9) 0.99526 .
Method 1
Since n 60 is large, by Central Limit Theorem,

1 5
1 25 6 6
X N 25 , approximately.
60
6

25 125
i.e. X N ,

6 2160
Thus

17

17(i)

P 4 X 6 0.756 (3s.f.).
Method 2
1
B(1500, )
6
P(4 X 6) P(240 T 360) P(T 360) P(T 239)
0.76541 0.765 .
17(ii)
Let Y be the number of classes (out of 60) having 10 or more students making
enquiries at the Police Force's booth.
Y B(60,0.0047426)
Since n 60 large, np 0.28455 5 , Y P0 (0.28455) approximately.
Required Prob P(Y 2) 0.30459 0.305 .
17 (last Quota sampling.
part)
Disadvantage:
[1] Sample may be biased as the interviewers are allowed to select students who are
more approachable to fulfill the quota required.
[2] Sample may not be representative of the student cohort as the male to female
ratio may not be 2:3 as stated in the sample.
[3] Quota Sampling method is not random and as a result the sample may be biased
as interviewers are allowed to select the students in any manner to fulfill the quota.

Let T X 1 X 2 ... X 60