An Analysis of FASAL: The Operational

Crop Forecasting Programme of India

S. S. Ray1, K. R. Manjunath2, Neetu1, Sanjeev Gupta1, J. S. Parihar2

1Mahalanobis

National Crop Forecast Centre (MNCFC), DAC, MoA, New Delhi

2Space

Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad

Email: shibendu.ncfc@nic.in

Conventional Crop Estimation in India

Area Statistics
Land Record States or temporarily settled states: 17 Major States, 4 UTs: 86% of
reporting area, Timely Reporting Scheme (TRS), 20% villages are selected at random for
complete area remuneration.
States where area statistics are collected on the basis of sample surveys. Establishment of
an Agency for Reporting of Agricultural Statistics (EARAS). 9% of reporting area. Sample
surveys of 20% villages/ investigator zones.
Hilly districts of Assam, rest of the states in NER, & other UTs. Area statistics based on
impressionistic approach. 5% of the reporting area.

Yield Estimates

Crop Cutting Experiments (CCE) under scientifically designed General Crop Estimation
Surveys (GCES).
Around 950 thousand CCEs.
Stratified multi-stage random sampling: Tehsil / Taluk > Revenue Village> Survey Number /
Field> Experimental Plot (Specified size / shape)
80-120 CCEs for a crop in a major district

Advance Estimates
September (1st ), January (2nd ), March/April (3rd ), June/July (4th), January (Final)

Major Crops of India

S.N.

Group

Crop Type Crop

Food grains Cereals

1
2
3

4
5
7
8
9 Oilseeds
10
11
12 Fibre Crops
13
14 Sugarcane

Coarse
Cereals

Pulses

Season

Avg. Area
(M Ha)

Rice

Kharif + Rabi

Wheat
Maize

Rabi
Kharif + Rabi

Sorghum

Kharif + Rabi

Bajra
Tur (Arhar)
Gram
Groundnut
R&M
Soybean
Cotton
Jute
Sugarcane

Kharif
Kharif
Rabi
Kharif
Rabi
Kharif
Kharif
Kharif
Long Durn

39.1
4.3
29.0
7.2
1.3
2.8
4.2
8.7
3.8
8.4
4.6
6.2
10.0
11.0
0.8
4.7

Avg.
Production
(M Ton)
85.3
13.6
87.4
15.1
5.3
3.1
3.3
9.0
2.6
7.8
4.9
7.3
11.9
29.5*
10.4*
324.4

Status (RS
Assessment)
1
1
1
4
3
4
2
4
3
3
4
1
4
2
1
2

* Million bales

45 Years of Use of Space Technology in Crop

Forecasting

NASA-

1969 ISROMoA

Coconut Root Wilt

study in Kerala

1978

JEP

Experimental Studies
on Crop
Discrimination

1988 CAPE

Area & production

Estimates of major
crops at State level.

1997

FASAL
Pilot

National Wheat,
FASAL-Odisha

2007 FASAL

District-StateNational forecasts
using multiple
approaches for
multiple forecasts

2012 NCFC

Institutionalisation of
Space Technologies
developed by ISRO

FASAL

(Forecasting Agriculture using Space, Agrometeorology

and Land based observations)
Aims at providing multiple pre-harvest production forecasts of crops at National/State/
District level

National/State/District forecasts:

Organisations Involved

Kharif Rice (3 Forecasts, 14 states)

Rabi Rice (1, 4)
Wheat (3,6)
Winter potato (2, 4)
Rapeseed & Mustard (3,5)
Jute (1,3)
Cotton (2,8)
Sugarcane (2,4)
Rabi Sorghum (1,2)

Department of Agriculture &

Cooperation
Mahalanobis National Crop Forecast
Centre
ISRO (SAC, NRSC, NESAC)
State Agriculture Departments (19)
State Remote Sensing Centres (14)
India Meteorological Department &
46 Agro-Met Field Units
Institute of Economic Growth

Salient Features for Crop Assessment using Remote Sensing

Data
Multi-date Microwave (SAR) for Rice & Jute and Multi-date/Single-date Optical (AWiFS/
LISS III) for other crops

Approach
Stratified Random Sampling
States Covered
All those sates, which together contribute >85% of the Crops area in the Country
Periodicity
Multiple, starting from 1 month of crop to pre-harvest
Classification Approach

Hierarchical for Multi-date SAR; Hybrid (combination of supervised & unsup. for multidate optical); MXL for single date optical
Software
FASALSoft, developed by ISRO
Yield Forecast
Agro-meteorological, progressing towards spectral & simulation

Organisations Involved
DAC, MNCFC, State Agrl. Dept., IMD, SAC (ISRO), SRSC; IEG

Smartphone based Ground truth Collection

8997 points covering 17 states
between August , 2013 to
September, 2014

App by
NRSC

Crop Yield Forecasts

Meteorological Sub Division Level Yield Models: SAC, MNCFC

District Level Yield Models: IMD, SAUs

Semi Physical Remote Sensing Models: Rice, Wheat

Empirical Models (Agromet + Remote Sensing)

Simulation Models (Assimilation of RS data)

Agromet + Remote Sensing+ Field Observation

Remote Sensing Driven Crop Cutting Experiments

App by
NRSC

FASAL Forecasts, 2013-14

Estimates

Rice

Wheat

Remote Sensing

DES

Remote Sensing

DES

1st

Aug End

Sep End

Feb Mid

Feb 1st Wk.

2nd

Sep End

Feb 1st Wk.

Mar Mid

April Last Wk.

3rd

Jan End (Final)

April Last Wk.

Apr 1st Wk (Final)

July Mid

4th

---

July Mid

---

----

Final

---

Feb 1st Wk.

---

Feb 1st Wk.

Crop
Jute
Rice
Cotton
Sugarcane
Rapeseed & Mustard
Potato
Rabi Sorghum

Estimate
F1
F3
SDF
SDF
F3
F2 (Total)
SDF

Satellite Data
RISAT-1 MRS
RISAT-1 MRS
LISS III/AWiFS
LISS III/AWiFS
LISS III
AWiFS
LISS III

Area
0.72 (0.77)
37.47 (39.41)
10.45 (11.69)
4.44 (5.01)
5.73 (6.70)
1.91
4.23 (3.60)

Production
10.06* (10.98*)
86.87 (91.69)
25.98* (36.59*)
331.69 (350.02)
7.07 (7.96)
39.75
3.88 (3.05)

Date
24 Jul 2013
22 Jan 2014
18 Dec 2013
18 Dec 2013
04 Mar 2014
28 Feb 2014
15 Feb 2014

Wheat
Rabi Rice
Total Rice

F3
F1
Final

LISS III
RISAT-1 MRS
Estimated

29.87 (31.19)
3.86 (4.54)
41.34 (43.94)

89.12 (95.91)
12.58 (14.84)
99.45 (106.54)

04 Apr 2014
04 Apr 2014
04 Apr 2014
*Million Bales

Issues & Requirements

Minor and Scattered Crops

Higher Frequency of EO Data

Non-Rice Kharif Crops

Better Models for Yield

Accurate Yield Forecasts

Satellite Derived Products

Impact of Extreme Weathers

Geospatial Platforrms

www.ncfc.gov.in
ncfc@gov.in