27 July 2014 |

Forces on Russian Soil Fire Into Ukraine

The Obama administration stepped up pressure on Russia with another release of commercial
satellite imagery in a attempt to stop the fighting and increase international support. However,
considering how Putin squandered his opportunity to ratchet things down with the MH17
disaster, its doubtful these efforts will be met with any success.

Damage Assessment
As evidence, DigitalGlobe imagery released by the State Department shows some
troubling developments over the last week on the border between Ukraine and Russia. A PDF
document sent to the press today titled Evidence of Russian Shelling in Ukraine suggests that
Russian military forces are directly helping the separatists by firing at the Ukrainian military
from Russian soil.
This is explicitly depicted in imagery from 23 July (above) which shows self propelled artillery
setup in unprepared firing positions aimed at a nearby Ukrainian military unit.
Accompanying this image was also a battle damage assessment showing the subsequent impact
craters viewed left.

The BDA was conducted comparing imagery between 20 and 23 July of the Ukrainian position.
A quick geolocation of both units respective positions using Google Earth shows a distance of
approximately 8.5 miles well within the range of Russias self propelled artillery. Despite the low

fidelity of the imagery, those viewed above may be the 2S1 or 2S3s. Its doubtful these are
Russias more potent 2S19s, as suggested by the size and shadow of the vehicles. Besides,
Ukraine has 2S1s and 2S3s in abundance which could provide Russia cover for any accusations
regarding outside material assistance. Though, that argument may be difficult to defend as Russia
would have to explain why it allowed a separatist unit on its side of the border.

Perhaps more interestingly, we also see the remnants of various firing positions located inside the
Ukraine border. Blast marks or ground scaring depicted in imagery from 21 July is consistent
with that from a multiple rocket launcher. Comments from US officials on Thursday (24JUL14)
suggest these may be from the BM-30 Smerch, a potent MRL consisting of 12 tubes for 300mm
rockets. Additional damage assessments and the respective strike distances were provided in
imagery inserts viewed above.

Thursdays comments from senior officials suggested that Russia had the intent of giving the
BM-30 to the pro-Russian separatists. Despite ground scaring inside the Ukraine border, it is not
certain at this time if the transfer occurred. In fact, imagery from 25 July also provided in the
released document shows additional MLR ground scarring back on the side of the Russian
border. Although inconclusive, this may suggest that the MLR unit had returned. Unfortunately,
it is difficult to assess without additional imagery.
In the meantime, Ukraine claimed yesterday that it was ready to retake Donetsk, the heart of the
Russian-backed separatist movement. With approximately 15,000 Russian troops amassed on the
border ready to supply the rebels, it may be a tough fight ahead.
http://osimint.com/2014/07/27/forces-on-russian-soil-fire-into-ukraine/