Market Pulse Survey, May 2015

1
MARKET PULSE
May 2015
Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS
Respondents are asked about their last closed
transaction and business activity in their market area

for the previous month and the last year.
LASTTRANSACTION
MedianSale Price Down 3.3% MTM, Down 0.9%YTY

Median
$600,000
$500,000
$450,000
$435,000
$439,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
Q: What was the sale price of your last closed transaction?

SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
2015 YTD
2014
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
$0
4/10TransactionsClosed BelowAsking Price

Over
Below
At
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
Premium Paid OverAsking Price Decreased

Average
14.0%
12.0%
10%
10.0%
8.0% 8.0%
8.0%
6.5%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
YTD 2015
2014
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0.0%
Discount on Asking Price Declines

0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
-14.0%
Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May
14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 -15
Average -5.8 -5.6 -5.8 -6.3 -12% -13% -11% -11% -11% -11% -7.0
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
2015
YTD
-8.0 -10%
2014
65% of Properties Receiving MultipleOffers

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
Number of Offers Received Declines

Average
4.0
3.6
3.5
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

2.8
10
Listing Price Reductions Down

35%
33%
30%
25% 26%
25%
20%
28%
29%
31% 31% 31%

28%
23%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
25%
11
% of Previous Renters Declining

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
12
Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
13
Share of First-time Buyers Fluctuating

45%
% First-time Buyers
Long Run Average
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
14
Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Vacation home
Other
10%
19%
Q: What was the intended use of the property?

Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
73%
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
82%
Apr-15
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Investment
13%
79%
May-15
Primary residence
15
International Buyers Fluctuate

% International Buyers
Long Run Average
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
16
MARKET CONDITIONS
17
Floor Calls from Potential Clients Increased

Last Month
Down
Flat
Up
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was
18
ListingAppointments/Presentations toClients
Increase
Last Month
Down
Flat
Up
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your
market area this month was
19
Open HouseTraffic Up from LastYear

Last Month
Down
Flat
Up
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
LastYear
Apr-15
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was
Apr-15
20
Auctions Steady
Last Month
Down
80%
Flat
Up
60%
40%
20%
0%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15
Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15 Mar-15
LastYear
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
Apr-15 May-15
21
All Cash Purchases Down
Last Month
Down
50%
Flat
Up
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
LastYear
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jun-14
Apr-15
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
22
Majority of REALTORS Expect Similar/Better

MarketConditionsOver the NextYear
Worsen
Same
Improve
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
23
Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions to

Worsen
There are no employment opportunities in this area, there are not many investors
either.
There are many REALTORS without a real estate license and their brokers allow
it.
Low inventory of houses.
Prices are too high and many are being priced out.
Fewer sellers entering the market; higher prices will limit opportunities for buyers.
Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?
24
What are REALTORS Saying?

Inventory is still limited and buyers are hesitant to pay asking price.
Millennials dont seem to be moving to buy.
Appraisal issues continue to hurt transactions. Issues with solar panel appraisals.
Prices seem to be rising too quickly. I hope we are not in another bubble.
The market is becoming overheated in the under $600k price range.
Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share
with us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or
other topics?
25
Top 10 Counties
April 2015
May 2015
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Diego
Riverside
Alameda
Orange
Riverside
San Bernardino
Santa Clara
Sacramento
Sacramento
San Mateo
Orange
Santa Clara
Fresno
Alameda
Contra Costa
10
San Francisco
San Mateo
Q: In which county do you live?


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transaction and business activity in their market area

MedianSale Price Down 3.3% MTM, Down 0.9%YTY

Q: What was the sale price of your last closed transaction?

4/10TransactionsClosed BelowAsking Price

Premium Paid OverAsking Price Decreased

Discount on Asking Price Declines

65% of Properties Receiving MultipleOffers

Number of Offers Received Declines

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

Listing Price Reductions Down

31% 31% 31%

% of Previous Renters Declining

Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters

Share of First-time Buyers Fluctuating

Long Run Average

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Q: What was the intended use of the property?

International Buyers Fluctuate

Long Run Average

Floor Calls from Potential Clients Increased

Open HouseTraffic Up from LastYear

Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15

Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

All Cash Purchases Down

Majority of REALTORS Expect Similar/Better

Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions to

Low inventory of houses.

What are REALTORS Saying?

Millennials dont seem to be moving to buy.

The market is becoming overheated in the under $600k price range.

Q: In which county do you live?

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