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HERA PROPERTIES
INVESTMENT PROSPECTUS
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KHAIRKHAN DISTRICT
Expected IRR: 18%
Initial Investment Required: US$ 20 million
High profile residential development in key future city hub
Source of Opportunity
75% 90%
Investment Thesis
The Khairkhan District project is considered to be a lynchpin
development in Ulaanbaatars affordable property market.
This landmark 38 hectare development, spread across two
adjoining sites, is adjacent to an expansive new City Hall
facility planned by the Ulaanbaatar City Government. This is
set to turn the area into a new nodal hub for the Capital,
adding significant value to the Khairkhan District development
and providing significant drivers for office, hotel and retail
facilities contained therein.
Through contract controls on construction costs the
developer is able to maintain margins of close to 50% on
residential developments, which make up 54% and 72% GFA
across the two sites.
There is pent-up demand in Ulaanbaatar for over 200,000
residential units, concentrated at the low end of the market.
The developer is well placed to access this demand with the
lowest pre-sales price point in the market at 1.5 mm MNT per
sq.m (well within affordability limits even in affordable markets).
The developer has achieved 100% pre-sales on initial
phases of this project and is already marketing
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Project History
During 2014 Hera Properties broke ground on the first apartment projects as part of the 202,134 square
meter Khairkhan District project. In June 2014, the Mongolian government provided US$4.9 million for the
redevelopment of the infrastructure for G block. Installation work of new infrastructure was completed by
September 25, 2014. 168 residential units across three 9 level apartment buildings has been completed
(totalling 14,040 sq.m of residential space). One further block, containing 70 residential units and
supporting retail, is presently under construction. Within G block a further 252 residential units in four 9level apartment buildings, are planned, alongside one 9-level block of slightly smaller units. In total 41,436
sq.m of residential space was under construction in 2014.
Project Objective
The core objective of the Khairkhan District project is to provision high quality, low-cost housing for a mixed
community of middle and lower income households. The development forms part of 12 ger district projects,
initiated to provision up to 200,000 new homes within Ulaanbaatar over the mid-term, in keeping with the
central scope of sustainable socio-economic, ecological, cultural and educational development of new
residential areas.
Developer Background
HERA Properties LLC is a subsidiary of HERA Holdings, an established firm operating in Mongolia since
2003. The company operates in diverse sectors, including mining, equipment import and sales, food
manufacturing, transport, construction materials manufacture and property development. The company has
remained in the Mongolian National Chamber of Commerce and Industrys Top 100 Enterprises since
2006. HERA Properties LLC was established in 2014 in order to undertake the Khairkhan District ger area
re-development.
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Mongolia is the 19th largest country on earth and yet one of the most sparkly populated nations. Of just
over 3 million citizens, 1.1 million now live in Ulaanbaatar, the countrys capital city. Economic growth for the
nation averages at 9.6% since 2010, peaking at 17.5% in 2011 on the back of major Foreign Direct
Investment into the mining sector. GDP Growth is expected to slow to around 3% in 2015, before rising to
5% in 2016, according to ADB estimates. The estimated value of Mongolias resource wealth is
approximately US$1.3trillion. There are approximately 6,000 known deposits of over 80 different minerals in
the country, including gold, copper, coal, uranium, molybdenum, tin and iron. Yet just 27% of this vast nation
has so far been surveyed in detail.
Despite a substantial increase in mining output, growth in Mongolias gross domestic product (GDP) slowed
to 7.8% in 2014 from 11.6% in 2013. Foreign direct investment continued to fall, and the sizeable monetary
stimulus that kept growth high in the previous year became increasingly difficult to maintain in light of
pressures from inflation and the balance of payments (BOP). As value added in mining increased by 24.2%,
reflecting the first full year of production at the vast Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine, industrial production
expanded by 16.1% and contributed 4.8% to GDP growth. This came despite a 16.3% drop in coal
production.
The slowdown in growth has not been an altogether negative story, providing local companies with
breathing space to up-skill and upscale. Political wrangling that soured the nascent mining policy
environment is being overcome and a fresh, open approach to international business is taking root in
Government, exemplified by a new law on foreign investment, introduced in January 2014, reducing
administrative costs and restrictions on FDI into key sectors. Mongolias gross external debt position
remains at around 20.9 billion US$. Lending commitments rose six times during FY 2014, with external debt
standing at 1.8 times GDP (state and central bank debt making up 43% of GDP). These figures are
considered reasonable and monetary and fiscal policy are presently being tightened to contain inflationary
and BOP pressures, leading to lower GDP growth during 2015-2016 but a more sustainable recovery.
Ultimately Mongolias future is a bright one, driven by mining exports and upscaling of the agricultural
sector. New laws on casinos currently under consideration will also expand tourism markets. Despite
Chinas waning demand for coal, the reserves of gold, copper, rare earth metals, uranium, silver and other
mining products will sustain economic growth in the nation, undergirded by the development of new raillinks and roads, easing infrastructure bottlenecks and connecting this vast nation with its resource hungry
neighbours. In 2016, the GDP is expected to increase to 12.93 USD Billion. World Bank figures indicate that
in the long-term, the GDP in Mongolia is projected to trend around 13%, expected to reach 19.07% by 2020
and giving a gross nominal GDP of 31.22 USD Billion by 2050.
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70,000
24744#
25000#
60,000
20000#
50,000
14564.8#
15000#
10000#
5000#
40,000
9899#
30,000
9,543.9#
1823.6#
0#
20,000
16,700
10,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*
Commissioned#apartments,#houses#
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total#square#meter#of#the#commissioned#apartments,#thous.m2#
Housing#stock,#thous.m2#
In concert with mortgage market expansion, the City Government embraced on a large-scale
redevelopment of the citys informal housing areas or ger districts. The redevelopment program started in
2013 with 8 areas. Extended up to 24 areas, covering 1,325 hectares of land with 13,518 plots. Around
780,00 housing units will be built on these areas by 2020. This was incorporated into a national strategy to
provide 100,000 new, high-quality homes. Government involvement in the ger district redevelopments has
been to provide significant incentives to developers to enter the low end of the market. From supporting triparty agreements in order to enact the purchase of land to large-scale extension of infrastructure into these
areas in order to supply new-build properties with reliable electricity, potable and waste water supplies and
heating via Ulaanbaatars central grid. The Government infrastructure program earmarked 144,4 billion MNT
for infrastructure development including ger area development.
The Khairkhan District development is a key development, Government backed and approved by residents
of the Soninokhairkhan District. Its guiding principle is to construct high-quality, low-cost homes for mid to
low income households living in Ulaanbaatar. The broader objective of the project is to integrate with the
City Governments 2030 Master Planning agenda of creating a new urban hub within Songinokhairkhan
District, stimulating the urban revival of this district and generating a sustainable live-work community of
over 5,088 households.
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2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
Khairkhan District
Zag Group
Beren Group
Average
Baganat Urguu
500,000
Gangar Holding
3,000,000
Affordability remains a key concern within the low and middle income housing markets of
Ulaanbaatar. Significant pent-up demand for low-cost housing is hampered by limited access to
commercial housing finance at present within the Mongolian banking system. With pricing set at
1.5 million MNT per square meter at present, the Khairkhan District developments residential
units (which make up 54% or G Block built area and 72% of V1 and B1 block development) are
almost all within the range of affordability considering standard mortgage lending practices and
the average household income for Ulaanbaatar of 924,000 MNT per month. This sets the
Khairkhan District development apart from competitors in terms of value and market access.
As the graphs below indicate, Ulaanbaatars residential and commercial markets show sustained
growth, even during the recent macroeconomic slowdown. Despite small contractions in mid-end
residential pricing during 2014 (6% across the broad market), average price growth has been
sustained at 8% CAGR over the past decade, keeping up with inflation. It is set to continue to rise.
Commercial markets show even more impressive growth, with rental price for office spaces
increasing threefold during last 7 years, with retail prices increasing 11 times during the past 12
years. These figures show great growth potential in the Ulaanbaatar markets as new commercial
hubs rise, pent-up demand for residential space is accessed and infrastructure grows.
Residential Sales Price, MNT per sq.m
2,200,528 ($1169)
2013
2,014,389 ($1203)
2012
1,809,217 ($1296)
2011
1,575,623 ($1147)
1,255,150 ($999)
2009
1,189,650 ($842.5)
2008
1,044,624 ($850)
2007
643,621 ($550)
2006
457,292 ($377)
2004
0
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($446)
20
547,657
03
593,429 ($509)
2005
500,000
1,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000 429,590
0
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
5,566,000
4,700,000
3,900,000
3,300,000
2,025,000
1,336,500
668,250
20
2010
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
1
20 3
1
20 4
15
*
2014
Series1
Retail price
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Khairkhan(District(Rist(Factor(Analysis(
LOW#END#OF#MARKET#
VULNERABLE#TO#
MACROECONOMIC#
2#
SLOW#RECOVERY#OF#
ECONOMY#LEADING#TO#
SLOW#UPTAKE#OF#
1#
0#
!1#
SIGNIFICANT#
COMPETITIVE#MARKET#
SUPPLY#
!2#
RISK#OF#8%#MORTGAGE#
NOT#BEING#EXTENDED#
RISK#OF#NON!
COMPLETION#OF#NEW#
CITY#HALL#PROJECT#
!3#
LIMITED#LOW#END#
MARKET#
DIFFERENTIATION#
CURRENCY#RISK#FOR#
FOREIGN#CURRENCY#
DENOMINATED#RISK#AND#
Areas of Opportunity
The capacities of the developer and specific attributes of the development have the most significant
synergy with pent-up demand in residential markets. Price controls, in-situ population and new Government
facilities planned for the adjacent site all magnify pent-up demand within the lower and middle income
residential markets. The large in-situ population and overall location of the project also magnify the
opportunities presented by the fact that the adjacent site is likely to be home to new hub for Ulaanbaatar.
Areas of Mitigation Strength
Overall, The project and developer strengths performed well in mitigating the key risk of low-end market
vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and continuing downturn. Low price points, developer synergies
with construction materials supply, government infrastructure report and the potential of large-scale
Government facilities being moved to a new urban hub next to the project, all served to somewhat mitigate
threats of reduced incomes, lower margins and slowing sales. Threats to bank financing of mortgage loans
remains, as does the threat of inflation, although these two outcomes are worst-case scenario only.
Areas of Concern
By far the greatest area of concern is the fact that the low end of the market is extremely vulnerable to
external shocks and downturns as a result of slowing macroeconomy. This will potentially result in lower
purchasing power of households, and constricted project financing by local lenders. With low margins at
the lower end of the market there are limited options for refinancing and lowering prices to meet lower
demand profiles were purchasing power and wages to fall across the economy.
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Mitigants
Deterioration of
investment policy
environment
LOW
Oyu Tolgoi
Agreement not
signed
LOW
Parliamentary
collapse
LOW
Distress in
construction sector
MEDIUM
Rising inflation or
hyperinflation
MEDIUM
Heavy involvement of
the Government in
private sector
MEDIUM
Slow recovery of
mining prices and
overall mining sector
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
HIGH
Increase in NPLs
HIGH
Increased foreign
exchange fluctuation
and falling MNT
HIGH
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Investment Structure
Investment Required
The Developer, Hera Properties, is seeking US$ 20 million in investment in order to undertake development
of the Khairkhan District project. They are willing to offer equity in the project in return for this investment.
Equity offered is 25% of total project equity. This provides a total investment return of 18% Over 6 years,
based upon an EBITDA figure of 20.9%.
INVESTMENT OFFERING
Investment
Required
Payback
Period
US$ 20,000,000
5 years
Equity Share
25%
IRR
18%
Investment will be made directly into the project via a special purpose vehicle, which will hold the
cash flows from the project.
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Financial Data
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Total
Development
Cost
436,960,029
540,404,517
Prot on Cost
24%
4%
Required investment
US$ 20,000,000
Required Debt
US$ 20,000,000
Return on Cost
26%
Return on Investment
20%
38 hectare
477,298
US$ 16,900,000
214,902,527
FINANCIAL BREAKDOWN
Total amount
/thous MNT/
Total amount
/thous USD/
% of net revenue
NET REVENUES
540,418,791
$271,567.23
100%
Construction cost
406,768,921
$204,406.49
75.3%
COGS
406,768,921
$204,406.49
75.3%
10,604,056
$5,328.67
2%
10,283,052
$5,167.36
1.9%
TOTAL COST
427,656,029
$214,902.53
79.1%
EBITDA
112,762,762
$56,664.70
20.9%
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Media
Commercial facilities
Commercial facilities
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Project Layouts
V1 & B Block
Phase II
CITY HALL SITE
G Block
Under
Construction
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1%
6%2%
4%
12%
40%
54%
3%
72%
Residential
Retail
Office
Industrial
6%
Residential
School / Kindergarten
Hotel
Healthcare
Commercial
Office
Sales&Plan&by&Residen.al&Unit&Type&
25%#
20%#
15%#
9#LEVEL#63#APARTMENTS#
10%#
9#LEVEL#54#APARTMENTS#
12#LEVEL#APARTMENTS#
5%#
15#LEVEL#APARTMENTS#
24
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23
#
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Cumula&ve)Value)by)Concept)
!400,000,000!!
!600,000,000!!
!350,000,000!!
!500,000,000!!
!300,000,000!!
!250,000,000!!
Other!Community!Facili>es!
!200,000,000!!
School!
!400,000,000!!
Other!Community!Facili>es!
School!
!300,000,000!!
Commercial!
!150,000,000!!
Residental!
Commercial!
!200,000,000!!
Residental!
!100,000,000!!
!100,000,000!!
!50,000,000!!
!"!!!!
1!
2!
3!
4!
5!
6!
7!
8!
9!
!"!!!!
10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18! 19! 20! 21! 22! 23! 24! 25! 26! 27! 28!
1!
Projected)Sales)Revenues)
6!
7!
8!
9!
10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18! 19! 20! 21! 22! 23! 24! 25! 26! 27! 28!
9"Level"56"Apartment"
9"Level"63"Apartment"
"9"Level"63"Apartment""
31,476,127'
5,371,676'
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5!
103,594,851'
55,602,135'
2016'
4!
9"Level"80"Apartment""
135,858,697'
87,512,937'
3!
Sales&Revenues&by&Segment&
Projected'Sales'Revenues'
110,786,360'
2!
"12"Level"Residen9al""""
2017'
2018'
2019'
2020'
2021'
2022'
2023'