COMPREHENSIVE

PSYCHOLOGY

Astrology as a culturally transmitted heuristic scheme

for understanding seasonality effects: a response to
Genovese (2014)1

2015, Volume 4, Article 7

ISSN 2165-2228

Mark A. Hamilton

DOI: 10.2466/17.CP.4.7
Mark A. Hamilton 2015
Attribution-NonCommercialNoDerivs CC-BY-NC-ND

University of Connecticut

Abstract

Received November 7, 2014

Accepted April 17, 2015
Published May 6, 2015

CITATION
Hamilton, M. A. (2015) Astrology as a culturally transmitted heuristic scheme for
understanding seasonality
effects: a response to Genovese (2014). Comprehensive
Psychology, 4, 7

Ammons Scientific

www.AmmonsScientific.com

Astrology is a popular and resilient heuristic scheme for making sense of complex patterns in nature. Astrological heuristics are conveyed through communication in print and online media. Recent research found that the ecliptic longitude of sun signs predicts the frequency of celebrities-per-sign. A subsequent
critique, however, attributed this large positive eect to methodological artifacts. The present study puts the alleged artifact hypotheses to an empirical test.
One of the artifact hypotheses was sharply rejected, and no empirical support
could be found for the second. Causal modeling indicated that although relative
age in school (comparative maturity) increased the number of celebrities-persign, this eect on fame was largely mediated by ecliptic longitude sequence
(ELS) and two other seasonal birth heuristicswetness of sign (determined by
astrological elements) and brightness of sign (determined by sign duality). Birth
during depth of season, calculated from quality of sign, also increased celebrities-per-sign. The analysis found strong support for a mediation model with
astrological aspects acting as personality proxies, although further research is
needed to replicate these eects on celebrity.

Opinion polls indicate that 29% of Americans believe in astrology (Harris Poll, 2013). It
originated as a system of beliefs about the seasons and other divinely controlled events
that can be traced back to the astronomy of the ancient Egyptians (Mure, 1832) and Babylonians (Koch-Westenholz, 1995). For Bronze Age societies struggling to survive, discerning patterns of precipitation, humidity, temperature, wind, and sunshine would
have been invaluable for making sense of the natural world. Babylonians thought the
movement of celestial objects was an omen from divinities that would allow the prediction of terrestrial events, even if such events could not be explained (Rochberg-Halton,
1988; Rochberg, 2010). The ability to predict nature would be essential to successfully
farm; cope with flooding, infestation, or disease; and wage warpattern recognition
was a matter of life and death. The Egyptians, Babylonians, Greeks, and Romans lived
in northern latitudes, so the March equinox signaled the onset of spring (Mure, 1832;
Sachs, 1952). The equinox in spring was of paramount importance to these civilizations
because it represented the start of the Astrological New Yeara sign that they should
prepare to plant their crops.
The intricate environmental patterns largely influenced by the sun and moon that
ancient civilizations observed taxed their capacity for explanation. This was true even
for the Hellenistic Greeks with their concern with causal agency (Rochberg-Halton,
1988). Without the systematic deduction from observable facts that science can produce, the civilizations of the Near East were left to explain what they observed in nature with heuristics. These heuristics incorporated background assumptions about supernatural forces, including the eect that the planets and distant star clusters have on
earthly events. This scheme of heuristics became known as astrology. Eschewing systematic processing in favor of heuristic processing when faced with an inability to handle complex tasks has been well documented (Chaiken & Eagly, 1993).
To survive, ancient civilizations would have had to convey their seasonal heuristics
from one generation to the next. They needed a popular mechanism to transmit essential
Address correspondence to Mark A. Hamilton, Department of Communication, University of Connecticut,
Arjona Hall, Storrs, CT 06268 or e-mail (mark.hamilton@uconn.edu).
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A Response to Genovese / M. A. Hamilton

the equinox when the amounts of daylight and night

are approximately equal.2 In the language of astrology,
March 20 is the First Point of Aries. Each of the 12 signs
is described by 30 of ecliptic longitude. As the first sign
of the zodiac, Aries has an ecliptic longitude of 0. As
the last sign, Pisces has an ecliptic longitude value of
330. The Adel, et al. data showed a substantial linear
correlation ( = 0.59, p = .04) between this ecliptic longitude sequence (ELS) and celebrities-per-sign. Recently, Genovese (2014) oered a critique of the Adel, et al.
study, arguing that their sun sign sequence eect was
due to methodological artifact.
Confusion over prediction in regression.The main
point of Genoveses (2014) critique of the Adel, et al.
(2013) study turns on their key phrase, Aries was arbitrarily assigned the number 1 (p. 172). This key
phrase is ambiguous in that it might mean either that
the sign assigned to the number 1 is arbitrary or that
the value of 1 assigned to Aries is arbitrary. Adel, et
al.s next sentence disambiguated their key phrase, by
stating that the regression results would not change as a
consequence of this assignment process. As part of their
pedagogical demonstration of bivariate regression, the
authors noted that that the values they assigned to the
signs in their sequence were arbitrary in that a constant
could be added to each of the values of the predictor
variable and the results would be the same. That is,
adding a constant to the values of a predictor variable
in regression will not change the slope of the line of best
fit. In that strict sense, they meant that the values of the
predictor variable x were arbitrary (M. M. Adel, personal communication, October, 2014). Genovese (p. 1) misunderstood this key phrase, interpreting it to mean that
the sun sign assigned to the number 1 was arbitrary.
To justify his re-analysis of the Adel, et al. (2013) data,
Genovese (2014, p. 1) asserted that there is no real zero
point in the zodiac. He acknowledged the long tradition of beginning the zodiac with Aries but argued that
the Adel, et al. choice was still arbitrary because it has
not been the universal choice. Genovese oered a counterexample from Ancient Greece to demonstrate that
Cancer (the June solstice) was once the starting point
instead of Aries (the March equinox). Even if the Greeks
altered the start of their zodiac to begin with Cancer for
a brief period of time, this would mean that they began their zodiac with the summer solstice rather than
the spring equinox. That is, for social convenience, they
may have moved from one seasonal marker to the next.
Like Adel, et al., virtually all of the academic research on
astrology and references within Western popular culture have marked the beginning of the zodiac with the
March equinox. Yet the precession of the equinoxes has

information about the environment so that it would become part of collective memory. The pervasiveness of astrology across the ancient world speaks to its perceived
value and ease of assimilation. Numinous archetypical
imagery would have been an eective means of transmitting this information within the culture (Jung, 1960).
Myths imbued the signs of the zodiac with numinosity,
drawing on archetypes projected from the collective unconscious (Jung, von Franz, Joseph, Henderson, Jacobi,
& Jae, 1964). As symbols of the myths that accompany
them, signs of the zodiac can be located relative to archetypes within a collective unconscious defined by culture
(Kalnova & Hamilton, 2014). Astrological predictions related to personality and occupation, when aggregated
across a vast number of observations at the societal level, may yield accurate predictions because they are the
equivalent of historical folk wisdom about seasonality
eects (Smithers & Cooper, 1978, p. 240).

The Debate Over the Association Between Sun Sign

and Celebrity
As astrology has developed over the past four millennia, it has often been the object of academic study and
considered vital to governance. The attraction of a heuristic scheme that provides answers in a complex world
persists for approximately one-third of the population.
The tendency for so many people across cultures to
check their daily horoscopes reflects a compelling motivation to rely on heuristic processing as they cope with
lifes daily stresses. Daily horoscopes promulgated in
print and online media represent the cultural reification
of astrological sun signs, implicitly making the case that
the zodiac predicts personality and behavior. Hence,
modern communication has allowed astrology to hold
its value as a heuristic scheme for understanding the
complicated universe in which we live (Truzzi, 1972).
Not long ago, a study by Adel, Hossain, and Johnson (2013) found a link between astrological sun sign
and celebrity. Adel, et al. drew a sample of 300 celebrities whose fame derived from politics, science, public service, literature, the arts, or sports. The celebrities
were mainly from the U.S. (M. M. Adel, personal communication, October, 2014). Information about the celebrities birthdays was collected so that they could be
categorized by sun sign. As part of the introduction to
their study, Adel, et al. (2013, p. 164) provided an explanation of the physics behind the apparent movement of
the sun within the celestial sphere. They illustrated how
the zodiac is an invention of human perception while
acknowledging the prominence of astrology within the
culture. Thus, Adel, et al. were simply reporting a curious finding rather than advocating for astrology as a
belief system.
The sequence of sun signs that Adel, et al. (2013)
used corresponds to increases in longitude within the
celestial sphere. This sequence begins on March 20 at
Comprehensive Psychology

The sequence reaches its midpoint on September 23 at the Southward

equinox when the amounts of daylight and night are again approximately equal. In astrological terms, September 23 is the First Point
of Libra.
2

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A Response to Genovese / M. A. Hamilton

caused the constellations to drift away from their original positions within the tropical zodiac, so the correlation of ELS with celebrity could be due to seasonality
but not distant star clusters.
Suppose that the serendipitous Adel, et al. (2013)
finding is a seasonality eect. Randomly shuing the
starting point of the zodiac in order to generate alternative sign sequences would not likely show the same sun
sign eect. Genoveses (2014) analysis was designed to
show that the starting point of the zodiac determines
the value of the correlation between sun sign and celebrities-per-sign. He lagged the starting point of the
zodiac so that all 12 possible starting points were covered. He reported that the correlations vary dramatically from large negative (r = .45) to large positive (r = .59).
This lag sequential analysis is easily replicated, and the
values he reported are correct. Unfortunately, this analysis rests on a misunderstanding of Adel, et al.s key
phrase that was disambiguated by the rest of their text.
His lag sequential analysis made the modest contribution of demonstrating that the sun sign eect is indeed
limited to the particular sequence that begins with Aries, tied to the March equinox.
Potential debunking hypotheses.Following his lag sequential analysis, Genovese (2014) sought to debunk
the observed ELS eect with three rival hypotheses.
First, he proposed that the ELS eect might be inflated by the fact that the number of celebrities for certain
signs are higher because the overall number of births in
the population for that sign is higher. Second, he speculated that the ELS eect is inflated because some signs
are associated with more days than others; he suggests
that more celebrities just happen to belong to signs with
more days. That is, more celebrities should occur under
some signs because more people are born under those
signs. The present study tested the two simple dunking
hypotheses, although both would entail only minor ad-

justments to the size of the observed ELS eect on celebrity. The third debunking hypothesis Genovese offers could, in principle, have explained away the ELS
eect on celebrity. He points out that relative age has
been shown to produce dierential mental and physical abilities within educational cohorts and this might
account for the observed correlation of .59 between sun
sign ELS and celebrity. That is, the correlation between
ELS and celebrities-per-sign could be spurious, caused
by the common causal antecedent (CCA) variable relative age, as shown on the left side of Fig. 1. The product
rule of causal modeling can be used to predict the degree of spuriousness between two consequent variables
based on their correlation with a CCA. If Genovese is
correct, then the ELS could be dismissed as tangential
to the important finding that relative age enormously
increases the odds that a person will become famous.
Past studies have indicated that the eect of relative
age on sports, academics, and mental adjustment is pervasive but indirect rather than direct (Thompson, Barnsley, & Battle, 2004; Pierson, Addona, & Yates, 2014).
Relative age eects on performance tend to be limited
(Long, Schorer, & Cobley, 2010; Romann & Fuchslocher, 2014), becoming smaller with maturation. Enormous relative age eects are rare. Hence, a more viable model would propose that the ELS is a proxy for
personality factors that mediate the eect of relative
age on celebrity as shown on the right side of Fig. 1.
The proposed associations among the personality variables shown in Fig. 1 are based on Belief Systems Theory (Hamilton & Veksler, 2014). Astrologers posit that
sun signs indicate the center of personality, representing a persons self-concept. If the folk wisdom of astrology were to have roughly captured this self-concept factor as part of its sun sign descriptions, then this would
explain the persistent popularity of sun signs over the
other main astrological aspects such as moon signs and

Relative Age as Common Casual

Antecedent Variable

Mediation Model with Astrological

Aspects as Personality Proxies
Reality Testing
Factor

Sun Sign
ELS

Wetness of
Sign
Neuroticism

.75

Comparative
Maturity
Relative
Age

.80

.60
Celebrities
per Sign

+
.50

Comparative
Maturity
Relative
Age

Sun Sign
ELS
Self-worth
Factor

Celebrities
per Sign

.60

Extraversion
Brightness
Sign

Self-concept

Sociability

Fig. 1. Competing models of relative age eects on celebrity

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A Response to Genovese / M. A. Hamilton

ascendant signs. The predicted correlation between relative age and celebrity in the mediated proxy model
would be r = .30. Thus, the goodness of fit of the two
models shown in Fig. 1 turns on whether the size of the
observed correlation between relative age and celebrities-per-sign is closer to .30 or .80.

360

ive

Ecliptic Longitude

The later a childs birthday is from the traditional start

day of kindergarten (most often September 1), the
younger his age relative to the rest of his school cohort.
Research using birth quartiles indicates that the eect
of relative age on academic attainment is often nonlinear (Cobley, McKenna, Baker, & Wattie, 2009): comparative youth (days past the start day) within a cohort has
a negative eect on apparent outcomes; comparative
maturity within a cohort has a positive eect on apparent outcomes; and those toward the middle of the age
range show less dierential outcomes. These negative
life events lead to a more depressive condition, although
this eect is nonlinear (Thompson, Barnsley, & Dyck,
1999). The inverse relationship between relative age and
depression might take the form of the cubic function as
illustrated in Fig. 2. By contrast, the eect of life events
on self-esteem is linear (Thompson, et al., 2004): more
positive outcomes increase self-esteem, whereas more
negative outcomes decrease self-esteem. Figure 2 illustrates the additive eect of self-esteem and depression
on a persons sense of self-worth. The sum would be a
depressed cubic function of comparative maturity. Note
that the point at which the self-esteem and depression
functions intersect is at the middle of the academic year,
the midpoint of the relative age domain shown in Fig. 2.
This midpoint approximates the March equinox.
Why would depression be a cubic function of relative age? Suppose that social judgment processes (Hovland, Harvey, & Sherif, 1957) occur among children
evaluating their apparent outcomes in school. Mundane events could form a latitude of expected outcomes
centered at the midpoint of the domain of days (which
stretches from 182 to + 182). Students at the middle of
the relative age distribution should show a predominance of mundane events with the modicum of success
and failure events assimilated into an otherwise ordinary life. Their school experience would be typified by
a preponderance of neither stress nor achievement; they
should therefore emerge from childhood with a middling self-worth.
Children at the extremes of the relative age distribution would, by comparison, show contrasting eects
on self-worth. The youngest children are more likely to
have prevalent failure events in school because they are
competing against older children. They might contrast
their performance with the average performance of
their cohort or with the impressive performance of the
most mature students. They would tend to experience

240

Sel
f-w
orth

March equinox

ss

270

The Effect of Relative Age on Self-worth

Comprehensive Psychology

pre

300

De

330

210
180
150
120

Se

e
lf-

st

ee

90
60
30
180 150 120 90 60 30

30

60

90

120 150 180

Comparative Maturity in Days

Aug 31

Mar 1

Sept 1

Birthday

Fig. 2. The eect of relative age on ecliptic longitude as a

proxy for self-worth.

a life with greater stress and less achievement, emerging from childhood as more depressive and with lower
self-worth. The oldest children are more likely to have
prevalent success events in school because they are
competing against younger children. They might contrast their performance with the average performance
of their cohort or with the disappointing performance
of the most juvenile students. They would tend to experience a life with greater achievement and less stress,
emerging from childhood as less depressive and with
higher self-worth.

A Mediation Model With Astrological Aspects as

Personality Proxies
Moving beyond the Adel, et al. (2013) study, Genovese
(2014) oered a more general critique of astrology as a
belief system. He cited two studiesone testing astrological prediction and the other testing astrological theory as explanation. In general, astrology prediction studies examine astrologers prognostications of volunteers
personality and occupational profiles. These are mainly
small sample studies (see Carlson, 1985; McGrew &
McFall, 1990) that employ a natal chart (horoscope)matching task. These studies showed that the predictions of individual astrologers have very low reliability.
The matching task appears questionable since participants have diculty matching their own personality
descriptions (Carlson, 1985). Even with a more valid
task, random individual client dierences could render
the predictions of astrologers unreliable.
Astrological aspect eects at the level of individual
observations should therefore be substantially attenuated due to unreliability, yielding small eect sizes. On

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A Response to Genovese / M. A. Hamilton

Chant, Torrey, & McGrath, 2003). Other studies have

found a small positive but homogeneous correlation between water signs and neuroticism (Mayo, White, & Eysenck, 1978; Smithers & Cooper, 1978; Veno & Pamment,
1979; Clarke, Gabriels, & Barnes, 1996). The notion of
wet signs (those associated with the elements of air and
water)4 captures a portion of the overlap between the
months associated with schizotypy and those associated with neuroticism. Those born under wet signs seem
to have more maladaptive thoughts than those born under dry signs (Torrey, Miller, Rawlings, & Yolken, 1997).
This dierence could be due to meteorological variables (temperature, humidity, and daylight duration),
seasonal epidemics, maternal hormones, sperm quality,
and infant development (Tochigi, Okazaki, Kato, & Sasaki, 2004).
The type of maladaptive thought that is obliquely
linked to wet signs is distinguished by diminished reality testing. The mediation model in Fig. 1 posits that
neurotic temperament ties variables in the self-concept
factor to the reality-testing factor. Neuroticism has been
found to be a major precursor to psychoticism (Iwawaki, Eysenck, & Eysenck, 1977; Krabbendam, Janssen,
Bak, Bijl, de Graaf, & van Os, 2002). Specifically, neuroticism shows a positive correlation with magical ideation, perceptual aberration, and fantasyprecursors
to schizophrenia (Gruzeller, 1996; Ross, Lutz, & Bailey,
2002; Kerns, 2005; Cicero & Kerns, 2010; Macare, Bates,
Heath, Martin, & Ettinger, 2012). In turn, schizotypy is
an antecedent to negative aect such as suspiciousness
(Ross, et al., 2002; Kerns, 2005; Cicero, Becker, Martin,
Docherty, & Kerns, 2013). In tests of BST, neuroticism
has been found to massively increase hostility (Hamilton & Mineo, 1999; Hamilton & Veksler, 2014). The
unusual experiences associated with schizotypy appear to mediate the eect of neuroticism on visual artistry (Burch, Pavelis, Hemsley, & Corr, 2006; Michalica & Hunt, 2013). A fanciful mindset could facilitate a
more positive attitude toward becoming famous. The
hypothesized eect of wetness of sign on celebrity appears in the Fig. 1 mediation model.
Duality as a proxy for extroversion.People born under bright signs (odd numbered) have been found to
be more extroverted than those born under dark signs
(even numbered). Across studies, this sign duality effect size is positive and homogeneous (Mayo, et al.,

the other hand, averaging across a large number of less

reliable observations can potentially generate estimates
of adequate reliability (Winer, 1971). If observations are
aggregated across individuals to allow a comparison of
signs on a consequent variable like obtaining celebrity,
the resulting eects should be much larger. Trends from
these aggregate observations can be the basis for collective folk wisdom linking seasonality to personality and
behavior such as occupation. The explanatory studies
of astrology correlate temperament with celestial events
at time of birth. Many of these studies have focused on
the Eysenck factors of extroversion, neuroticism, and
psychoticism.
Sun sign as a proxy for self-worth.If astrology is a
heuristic scheme for seasonality eects, then there
should be a periodicity to the ELS as well as other major
astrological aspects such as duality (brightnessdarkness), elements (Earth, Air, Fire, and Water), and quality of a sign (Cardinal, Fixed, and Mutable). In fact, ELS
is a cubic function of relative age that resembles a sine
wave.3 Personality variables often exert linear eects
on one another, so covariation among the various astrological aspects might be more parsimoniously reducible to linear eects. Suppose that ELS is a proxy for a
self-worth factor consisting of the variables self-esteem
and depression.
Belief Systems Theory (BST) proposes that self-esteem decreases depression, with both variables directly contributing to neuroticism. The size of the relationships among the three variables is suciently large
that they appear to form a factor (Hamilton & Veksler,
2014). The negative eect of self-esteem on depression
is on average very large (r = .55), although the size of
this negative eect varies considerably across studies
(Watson, Suls, & Haig, 2002; Kling, Ry, Love, & Essex,
2003; Hamilton & Veksler, 2014). Thus, the ecacy of
self-esteem as a buer against depression (Greenberg,
Solomon, Pyszczynski, Rosenblatt, Burling, Lyon, et al.,
1992) appears to vary by setting. The positive eect of
depression on neuroticism is also quite large (Finch &
Graziano, 2001; Kling, et al., 2003). Self-esteem also has
a sizeable negative eect on neuroticism (Francis, 1997;
Joshanloo & Afshari, 2011; Hebert & Weaver, 2014); the
magnitude of this eect suggests that self-esteem influences neuroticism directly, not just via reduced depression. Neurotic temperament is driven by the individualistic aect system (Hamilton, Buck, Chory, Beatty, &
Patrylak, 2008).
Wetness of season as a proxy for reality testing.Citing
meta-analytic evidence, Genovese (2014) noted that cold
and wet season births (winter to early spring) slightly
increase the odds of schizophrenia (Davies, Welham,

Connecting signs to personality temperaments can be traced back to

the Arabic-era astrologer Abu Masher (Greenbaum, 2005). The astrological concept of a wet sign is based on combining Aristotelian
elements. Early Greek writing on astrology (Manilius, 10 A.D./1977,
1997) describes wet signs as those produced by joining water with air.
Astrologers subsequently described people born under water signs
as emotional, imaginative, and creative. If this characterization is
correct, then water signs should be associated with artistic celebrity.
Conversely, astrologers described people born under air signs as intellectual, curious, and analytic. If this characterization is correct, then
air signs should be associated with practical celebrity.
4

Depth of season, wetness of sign, and brightness of sign are all cosine
functions of ELS although each has a distinctive period, amplitude,
and phase shift.
3

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A Response to Genovese / M. A. Hamilton

1978; Smithers & Cooper, 1978; Jackson, 1979; Veno &

Pamment, 1979; Jackson & Fiebert, 1980; Saklofske, Kelly, & McKerracher, 1982; van Rooij, Brak, & Commandeur, 1988; Clarke, et al., 1996). The mediation model
in Fig. 1 posits that extroverted temperament ties variables in the self-concept factor to the positive emotions
of warmth, contentment, and sociability (Von Dras &
Siegler, 1997; Lucas, Le, & Dyrenforth, 2008; Watson,
Stasik, Ellickson-Larew, & Stanton, 2015). Extroverted
temperament is driven by the cooperative aect system (Hamilton, et al., 2008). In tests of BST, indicators
of self-esteem are antecedent to empathy, with empathy
increasing bonding (Tafoya & Hamilton, 2010). Sociability, in turn, should facilitate fame. The hypothesized
eect of brightness of sign (as a proxy for extroversion
and subsequent sociability) on celebrity appears as part
of the mediation model shown in Fig. 1.
BST proposes that self-esteem and neuroticism have
opposing eects on bonding (sociability). Extroversion
has been found to have a positive correlation with selfesteem (Kamath & Kanekar, 1993; Hebert & Weaver,
2014) and a negative correlation with depression (Finch
& Graziano, 2001; Kling, et al., 2003). Neuroticism and
extroversion are inversely related (Kling, et al., 2003;
Jashanloo & Afshari, 2011), and within temperament
negative aect tends to inhibit positive aect (Hamilton & Veksler, 2014). If neuroticism has a negative eect
on extroversion, then the overall eect of the self-worth
factor shown in Fig. 1 on extroversion and sociability
should be negative.
Other astrological aspects.The quality of a sign (Cardinal, Fixed, & Mutable) may also function as a proxy
for personality variablesas might the ascendant sign,
moon sign, or planetary position. The position of the
planet Mars at time of birth has been tied to hostility
(Tiggle & Fiebert, 1979) and psychoticism (Gauquelin,
Gauquelin, & Eysenck, 1979, 1981). These personality
dierences can be tied to seasonality but not remote
celestial events at birth. That is, the celestial explanations are rivaled by terrestrial third-variable explanations. Indeed, the small size of the astrological aspect
eects observed at the individual level could be attributed to common causal antecedent (CCA) variables that
produce a spurious correlation between astrological aspects and personality or occupation. At the aggregate
level, however, the large size of the ELS eect in the
Adel, et al. (2013) data (r = .60) presents a problem for
CCA variable accounts.

per-month data were obtained. The first estimate was

for U.S. births from 1995 to 2002 (James, 2005). The second estimate was for worldwide births from 1967 to
2013 (United Nations, 2014). Average births per day for
each month was used to estimate births for each of the
12 signs. First, the number of celebrities-per-sign was
divided by the number of U.S. births-per-sign to generate the U.S. percentage of celebrities-per-sign values.
Second, the number of celebrities-per-sign was divided
by the number of U.N. births per sign to generate the
worldwide percentage of celebrities-per-sign values.
To enable a test of the third hypothesis, age within educational cohort was calculated for those born
across the 365 days of the year. Most states (29) have
a start date or cuto point for admission to school of
September 1 (plus or minus a day). The relative age in
school variable takes into account the supposed disadvantage of having a birthday later than September 1,
with values that range from 0 to 364. For greater precision, comparative youth was adjusted by computing
the start dates for each of the 50 states plus the District
of Columbia, weighted by the frequency of those various start dates across the U.S. The comparative youth
variable was then inverted to determine the comparative maturity variable.

Results
In order to test the first debunking hypothesis, daysper-sign was correlated with celebrities-per-sign. The
correlation was negative (r = .25). Adding days-persign as a predictor along with ELS in a regression actually increased the size of the ELS eect ( = 0.74). Thus,
the first debunking hypothesis was sharply rejected. To
provide an initial test of the second debunking hypothesis, the percentage of celebrities-per-sign values was
regressed on ELS. The eect of ELS on the U.S. percent
of the celebrities-per-sign variable was larger (r = .62)
than it was on raw celebrities-per-sign variable (r = .59).
Similarly, the eect of ELS on the worldwide percent of
celebrities-per-sign variable was larger (r = .60) than it
was on raw celebrities-per-sign variable (r = .59). Thus,
the second debunking hypothesis holds little promise
of accounting for the observed ELS eect on celebrity.
Adjusted relative age indicated by comparative maturity increased celebrities-per-sign (r = .34, N = 365, p < .001).
This eect is impressive compared to other recorded
relative age eects that hover around .10. The observed
relative age eect was thus much closer to .30 predicted by the mediation model than to the .80 predicted by
the CCA model. Thus, the data provided much strong
support for the mediation model than the CCA model. When ELS and adjusted relative age were simultaneously entered as predictors of celebrities-per-sign, the
relative age eect disappeared entirely ( = 0.00) and
the eect of ELS remained very large ( = 0.59). Next,
three proxies for personality were considered as par-

Method
The Adel, et al. (2013) frequency of celebrities-per-sign
data used for the present study was the same used by
Genovese (2014)the larger sample of 300 celebrities.
To enable a test of the first hypothesis, days per sign
was calculated across the 365 days of the year. To enable
a test of the second hypothesis, two estimates of birthsComprehensive Psychology

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A Response to Genovese / M. A. Hamilton

ity, it may be that the eect of these variables on celebrity is multiplicative rather than additive.
Finally, a one-way ANOVA was used to test the effect of sign qualities on celebrities-per-sign. The qualities eect was midsized (2 = 0.27). The omnibus test
(F2,362 = 14.08, p < .001) was followed with a post hoc
comparison of the means using a Sche contrast. The
means for the three qualities appear in Table 1. The
post hoc tests indicated that the Cardinal and Mutable
signs were not significantly dierent from one another
but that both were smaller than Fixed signs. This depth
of season eect suggest that those born in the midst of
each of the four seasons (February, May, August, or November) are more likely to become famous. Astrologers
claim that those born under Fixed quality signs are stubborn and persistent. Thus, depth of season might be a
proxy for a personality factor associated with a preference for the status quo such as rigidity or even one of its
consequences, aggressiveness.

tial mediators of the ELS eect on celebrity: duality, elements, and qualities.

Additional Astrological Sign Effects

The eect of element on celebrities-per-sign was tested
with a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The
element eect was massive ( = 0.77). The omnibus
test (F3,361 = 174.50, p < .001) was followed by a post hoc
comparison of the means using a Sche contrast. The
means for the four elements appear in Table 1. The post
hoc tests indicated that Fire and Earth were not significantly dierent from one another but that both were
smaller than Water and Air, and that Air was greater
than Water (p < .001). Note that air signs have twice
as many months associated with schizotypy (Aquarius and Gemini) than water signs (Pisces). Within the
Aristotelian lexicon of astrology, this finding means
that drier elements (Fire and Earth) are less likely to be
associated with fame than wetter elements (Water and
Air). Astrologers do claim that those born in wintertime
and particularly springtime are more evasive, unstable,
and eccentric, whereas those born in drier seasons are
alleged to be more realistic and direct. Thus, the wet
signs could be acting as a proxy for a personality factor associated with instability and low reality testing,
driven by neuroticism.

Modeling Astrological Heuristics Effects

In order to test the mediation model proposed in Fig.
1, relative age, ELS, brightness of sign, wetness of sign,
and depth of season were correlated along with celebrities-per-sign. The resulting correlation matrix appears
in Table 2. A causal model that had excellent fit was
constructed showing a root mean squared error of 0.05
(27,365 = 2.50, p = .93, RMSEA = 00).

TABLE 1
Mean dierences in celebrities-per-sign by element and qualities
Element
M
SD

2.31

Water

27.67b

18.67a

SD

5.86

Earth

19.67a

SD

4.62

Air

34.00c

SD

9.85

25.00

SD

8.45

Total

TABLE 2
Correlations Among the Six Variables in the Causal Model
1
2
3
4
5
6

Quality

Fire

Cardinal
Fixed
Mutable

24.25a

SD

4.99

28.00b

1. Relative age
advantage

SD

12.62

22.75a

2. Ecliptic
longitude

SD

7.63

3. Brightness

.05

.15

4. Wetness of
season

.09

.28

.00

5. Depth of season

.08

.01

.01

.01

6. Celebrities-persign

.34

.59

.17

.72

.57

.26

Note. Means with common letters are not significantly different by Scheffes test.

Comparative maturity increased ELS ( = .57), as

shown in Fig. 3. This eect is consistent with a very
large positive eect of relative age on self-worth. ELS
increased wetness of season ( = .28), with wetness increasing celebrity ( = .59). Within the mediation model,
this finding is consistent with self-worth influencing reality testing via neuroticism. That is, neuroticism would
increase schizotypy, with schizotypy increasing celebrity. ELS decreased brightness of sign ( = .15), with
brightness increasing celebrity ( = .24). Within the mediation model, this finding is consistent with neuroticism, as the variable within the self-worth factor most

Next, the eect of duality (brightness-darkness) on

celebrities-per-sign was examined with a t test. As predicted in Fig. 1, those with bright sign births (M = 26.33,
SD = 10.56) were more likely to be celebrities than those
with dark sign births (M = 23.67, SD = 6.44). This brightness eect was modest in size (t304.59 = 3.27, p < .001,
= 0.16). The variances for the two types of sign were
significantly dierent (Levenes F = 25.45, p < .001). The
standard deviations indicate that the bright signs are
substantially more heterogeneous than the dark signs.
If sign brightness is a proxy for extroversion or sociabilComprehensive Psychology

2015, Volume 4, Article 7

A Response to Genovese / M. A. Hamilton

Social Consequences

Personality

Experience in Environment

Self-concept

Temperament

Attitudes

Behaviors

Stressors

Rigidity
Rig
Ri
igiditty
Depression
D
Depr
epressi
ession
ion

Schizotypy
S
chi
hizzotypy

Neuroticism

Aggressiveness
A
Aggr
ggressi
essivene
iveness
ss

.14
Depth of
Season

Wetness of
Season

.59

.28

Sun Sign
ELS

.46

.26

Obtain
Celebrity

-.15
.57
.24
Brightness
of Sign

Self-Esteem

Empathy

Extraversion

Comparative
Maturity

Self-worth
Factor

Reality Testing
Factor

Achievements
RMSE = .047, 2(7,365) = 2.50, p = .93, RMSEA = .00

Fig. 3. Test of proposed model

Discussion

salient to temperament, decreasing extroversion. Extroversion, in turn, would increase celebrity through sociability. ELS had a positive eect on celebrity-per-sign
( = .46) that was not mediated by the other astrological aspects. Summing across the three indirect eects
shown in Fig. 3, relative age had a combined eect of
.36 on celebrity. This eect was diminished by the mediating role of brightness of sign, although that diminishing eect was slight (.04). Finally, comparative maturity directly increased depth of season ( = .14), with
depth of season increasing celebrity-per-sign ( = .26). If
depth of season were a proxy for rigidity or aggression,
then this would suggest that the positive outcomes that
relative age brings could generate a single-minded,
dogmatic, and aggressive pursuit of fame.
Relative age advantage did have the eect on celebrities-per-sign predicted by Genovese (R = .34). However, adding the four astrological aspects to the prediction
equation resulted in a large increase in variance explained (R = .87); this increase was substantial (F3,360 =
309.66, p < .001). Thus, seasonal birth heuristics fully
mediated the eect of relative age advantage on celebrities-per-sign.
Comprehensive Psychology

The findings of the present study provide support for

the hypothesis that relative age in school increases the
odds that a person will become a celebrity. However,
ELS, brightness of sign, wetness of sign, and depth of
season were useful seasonal heuristics for predicting
the likelihood that people will become celebrities based
on the astrological sign of their birth. These heuristics
function as mediating variables in the model depicted
in Fig. 3. Preliminary analysis had indicated that there
was no support for the rival hypotheses that the eect
of ELS on celebrities-per-sign was due to simple artifacts like number of celebrities born under each sign
or number of days-per-sign. Again, the lagged analysis
of signs Genovese conducted merely established that
zodiac sequences other than the ELS cannot account for
celebrity. Thus, his attempts to discredit the ELS eect
were not successful.

Toward a Personality-mediated Model of Relative

Age Effects
The very large eect of relative age on self-worth
shown in Fig. 3 is of the same magnitude as the aver-

2015, Volume 4, Article 7

A Response to Genovese / M. A. Hamilton

event with payos or a frequently recurring condition associated with positive outcomes. Triumph is the
achievement with the most momentum, since it tends
to lead to the other two forms of achievement. Students
who are relatively older than the rest of their class for
the duration of their time in school may feel exuberance from sustained accomplishment. Need attainment
is the gain of status and enhanced potential for future
rewards that are relevant to a persons values or ego.
Personal triumph can lead to competitive success as the
person gains confidence from their gratifying accomplishments. Social support consists of nurturing messages that express positive aect and encouragement
(Cobb, 1976a, 1976b). Students with the advantage of
comparative maturity are more likely to be praised by
their teachers and their peers (Pierson, et al., 2014). This
triad of achievement variables would provide multiple,
mediating paths through which comparative maturity
would enhance a childs self-concept.

age life event eects observed in studies of stress eects

(Hamilton & Veksler, 2014). Comparative maturity
would increase self-esteem and decrease depression as
shown in Fig. 2. How could relative age generate such
a large eect on self-concept? Higher performance on
mental and physical tasks during childhood development would promote ambition. Accumulated across at
least 12 years of education, this prolonged achievement
could result in a sense of personal triumph. Conversely,
comparative youth should lead to more negative outcomes. Lower performance on mental and physical
tasks during childhood development would promote
apathy. Accumulated across at least 12 years of education, this prolonged stress could result in a sense of
personal trauma. BST proposes that stressors such as
poor occupational, academic, or athletic performance
decrease self-esteem while increasing depression and
anxiety (Hamilton & Veksler, 2014). Future research
should directly assess the eect of self-esteem, depression, and anxiety on peoples attitude toward celebrity.
Their attitude toward celebrity should exert considerable influence on the likelihood that they will become
a celebrity. It is dicult to obtain self-reports of personality from famous individuals, so the celebrity-per-sign
numbers provided an opportune initial test of the proposed mediation model.
BST proposes that life events influence personality
and its social consequences (Hamilton & Tafoya, 2012).
Seasonal events are likely to have multiple, interconnected outcomes, whether they be stressors or achievements. BST describes three types of stressors (Hamilton
& Veksler, 2014). Personal trauma can be a single devastating event with repercussions or a frequently recurring condition associated with negative outcomes.
Trauma is the stressor with the most impetus, since it
tends to lead to the other two forms of stress. Students
who are relatively younger than the rest of their class
for the duration of their time in school may feel traumatized by chronic disappointment. Need impedance is
the loss of status and diminished potential for future
rewards that are relevant to a persons values or ego.
Personal trauma can lead to competitive failure as the
person becomes incapacitated from their trauma. Social
undermining consists of conflict-laden messages that express negative aect and criticism (Rook, 1984; Abbey,
Abramis, & Caplan, 1985). Students with the disadvantage of comparative youth are more likely to be criticized by their teachers, coaches, and peers (Pierson, et
al., 2014). This triad of stress variables would provide
multiple, mediating paths through which comparative
youth would damage a childs self-concept.
The three types of stressors represent a hierarchy of
life eventsepisodes of chronic arousal, experiences
pertaining to the pursuit of needs, and meaningful social interactions. Thus, there should be a corresponding
triad of achievements. Personal triumph is a propitious
Comprehensive Psychology

Conclusions and Future Directions

The present study probed the intriguing finding by
Adel, et al. (2013) that astrological sun sign predicts
celebrity. The standing of the model shown in Fig. 3
depends on whether additional celebrity data show
that the same seasonal heuristics mediate the eect of
comparative maturity on celebrities-per-sign. Replicating the prediction of celebrity would lend credence to
the model while predicting dierent occupations and
other behaviors from these seasonal birth heuristics
would address the generality of the model. Other methods of examining the eect of season of birth heuristics on celebrity are available. Researchers might, for
instance, explore variability in the various dimensions
of fame among established celebrities to see if the nature
of their fame is related to seasonal birth heuristics. Ultimately, researchers should be able to translate astrological aspects into specific monthly and annual patterns to
better explain the link between personality and celebrity. In sum, the results of the present study provided
strong empirical support for the Adel, et al. finding and
qualified support for the Genovese (2014) hypothesis
that relative age influences celebrity. The interlocutors
in this exchange would surely agree that distant star
clusters do not exert mystical eects on earthly events.
Whether they agree on the mediating role of seasonal
birth heuristics is harder to foresee.

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