doi 10.

1515/ijfe-2014-0020

International Journal of Food Engineering 2014; 10(4): 545556

Agostino G. Bruzzone, Francesco Longo*, Marina Massei, Letizia Nicoletti and

Matteo Agresta

Safety and Security in Fresh Good Supply Chain

Abstract: This paper proposes a model aimed at investigating safety and security issues in fresh good supply
chain. Particular attention is paid on fresh goods contamination since the increasing complexity of supply chains
makes these events more likely to happen. To this end, a
discrete event simulator (DES) underpinned by an analytical model has been developed as a support tool for
prevention and mitigation. Indeed, the simulation
model is able to recreate the disruption wave propagation
along the supply chain due to a contamination event as
well as the effects on the dynamic evolution of contaminated products demand taking into account complex
phenomena like media campaigns. In addition, even the
economic impacts in terms of costs (i.e. transportation
costs, inventory costs, and lost sales) can be assessed.
The potentials of the proposed simulation framework
have been investigated in a real case study of a fresh
food supply chain located in the north of Italy.
Keywords: modeling, simulation, intelligent agents, supply chain recalling, supply chain attack, supply chain
contamination, fresh food supply chain, safety and
security

*Corresponding author: Francesco Longo, DIMEG, University of

Calabria, Via P. Bucci 45C, Rende (CS), Italy, E-mail: f.longo@unical.it
Agostino G. Bruzzone: E-mail: agostino@itim.unige.it,
Marina Massei: E-mail: massei@itim.unige.it, DIME, University of
Genoa, Via Opera Pia 15, Genova 16145, Italy
Letizia Nicoletti, DIMEG, University of Calabria, Via P. Bucci 45C,
Rende (CS), Italy, E-mail: letizia.nicoletti@unical.it
Matteo Agresta, DIME, University of Genoa, Via Opera Pia 15, Genova
16145, Italy, E-mail: matteo.agresta@simulationteam.com

1 Introduction
Movement of people, goods, and information has always
been a fundamental activity in human societies. In particular, the evolution of economical processes has resulted
in the continuous search for greater mobility and higher
accessibility [1]. As a matter of facts, in the last two to
three decades owing to market globalization, supply
chains are becoming even more complex. On the one

hand business opportunities have increased dramatically,

on the other hand supply chains are more vulnerable
against risks that can cause catastrophic situations both
for companies and for final customers. A state of the art
on risk management in supply chain can be found in
Pfohl et al. [2]. Although the globalization historical origins are a matter of debate, many expert economists
agree that this process could be dated back to the 1980s
when a radical improvement of transportation and telecommunication infrastructures and services occurred.
At that time, substantial structural changes made the
transfer of goods and information easier, faster, and
cheaper so as to propel the supply chain globalization
increasingly. Since the beginning, the globalization process has had a strong effect on global and medium size
enterprises pushing firms to relocate production activities
or company departments to more convenient sites/countries with cheaper labor and savings of 5080% on average. Therefore the globalization process has provided
companies with the opportunity to be more flexible (i.e.
outsourcing and e-commerce) but has also created some
difficulties related to the increased complexity of management, administrative, and operational processes.
Drawing the attention on outsourcing, it is worth noticing
that it has had a twofold effect on supply chain management: enhanced agility and increased vulnerability. As a
matter of facts, outsourcing can be seen as a cost-effective strategy based on the total or partial transfer of
logistic (i.e. 3PL Third Parties Provider, 4PL Fourth
Parties Providers, etc.) or production processes to outside
suppliers that can be globally distributed. Thus, agility
relies on the capability of responding to shifts in the
marked demand with relatively little time overcoming
the limitations due to internal capacity constraints.
However, it implies that the number of actors involved
in the overall supply chain grows exponentially and risks
increase accordingly. In other words as complexity rises,
supply chain becomes even more vulnerable. This is
particularly true for food since products have a shorter
life cycle and organoleptic characteristics that may be
easily damaged as process and distribution conditions
change. In other words products are perishable and if
quality is not guaranteed to the consumer, serious
damages may be caused to his/her health. In particular

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A. G. Bruzzone et al.: Safety and Security in Fresh Good Supply Chain

there can be several risk factors that are distributed over

the various supply chain nodes. These risks, indeed, can
be related to the market (i.e. fluctuation of the demand),
to suppliers (i.e. contaminated products), to internal processes (i.e. contamination in storage, distribution), or
even to the external environment (i.e. epidemics, wars,
politic problems).
Needless to say that when dealing with food supply
chain, any kind of damage (for instance contaminations)
can have serious consequences endangering both consumers health and corporate image. However, as things
stand at the moment, the risk of damage is very likely
owing to intensive food production, use of innovative
solutions that may introduce risks of contamination and
outsourcing to unreliable providers; these aspects make
the need of preventing and mitigating these phenomena
compelling. To this end, modeling and simulation (M&S)
based approaches can provide a valuable support at all
levels of the supply chain management to seek for countermeasures and find best practices. As a matter of facts,
simulation allows facing the complexity inherent in logistic processes of food procurement, production, and distribution through a comprehensive approach where a
variety of factors such as traceability, transport/storage
conditions, variability of demand, and recalling of products in case of contaminations can be taken into
account simultaneously.
In this framework, safety and security are recognized
as critical aspects therefore specific research activities
have been carried out to support risk management in
the fresh good supply chain. As a result a simulation
model based on the discrete event stochastic methodology is proposed. After simulation conceptual modeling
and implementation in the ExtendSim environment, the
simulator potentials and operational features are shown
through a case study pertaining to the fresh fish supply
chain in North Italy [3].

2 State of the art

The main threats along the supply chain can be attributed to people, goods, and information flowing along and
their mutual interactions. Therefore there are several risk
factors that may affect supply chain stability, and these
factors may come from logistics, operations, or even from
the market. In this context, it is crucial to assess business
chains vulnerability, detect critical processes, and
develop operational plans aimed at mitigating consequences and assuring continuity. To this end M&S

provides decision makers at all levels (operational, tactical, and strategic) with specific and direct responses
thanks to the possibility of investigating and testing real
processes and their outcomes in a synthetic environment
[46]. As a matter of facts, M&S has been already applied
to handle different issues pertaining to supply chain
management such as optimization [7], policy analysis
[811], and decision support [12]. Here, M&S has shown
its effectiveness and its capability to take into account
several factors and their mutual interdependencies along
the chain from procurement to market. Anyway, the more
the paradigm of lean supply chain is spreading, the more
the actors involved and their mutual interrelations
increase in number and therefore vulnerability and risk
exposure grow. The measure of such vulnerability is
known as resilience. This subject has received specific
attention in literature, indeed many authors attempted to
clarify the meaning and the implications of supply chain
resilience (SCR). Although each definition considers this
term under a different perspective, unpredictability and
reactivity are recurring elements. To cite a few, Barroso
et al. [13] define SCR as the ability to react to the negative effects caused by disturbances that occur at a given
moment in order to maintain the supply chain objectives, and Falasca et al. [14] consider SCR as the ability
of a supply chain system to reduce the probabilities of
a disruption, to reduce the consequences of those disruptions once they occur, and to reduce the time to recover
normal performance, to this end examples and case
studies on supply chain disruptions can be found in
Longo and ren [15]. Moreover another, rather similar,
definition of SCR can be found in Sceffi [16], where SCR
is the ability of an organization to successfully
confront the unforeseen, and many other definitions
can be found in Stravos [17] where a detailed review on
SCR is proposed. In addition, when it comes to SCR other
important factors include flexibility, agility, velocity, visibility, and redundancy [5]. However, SCR is not a matter
of interest for the academic community only, but it is
equally or even more important in the business world,
both for global and for small and medium enterprises
(SMEs). Indeed, as reported in Understanding
Supply Chain Risks; Mc Kinsey Global Survey, 65% of
the surveyed executives coming from global firms
agree that risks are constantly emerging and growing in
supply chains. Moreover, on that point, Jttner and
Ziegenbein [18] confirm that this topic is equally important to SMEs, because they are often exposed to the
same risks as their large international firm counterparts
but they miss the necessary resources, structures and
processes.

A. G. Bruzzone et al.: Safety and Security in Fresh Good Supply Chain

Vulnerability becomes higher in case of food supply

chains, and in particular for fresh and frozen goods,
where it is needed to abide by a number of requirements
(i.e. range of temperature, range of humidity, expiring
date) in order to preserve products quality and integrity.
In this framework, the concepts of food safety and food
security that are directly related to human life quality are
of crucial importance. Although these concepts are interrelated, they are rather different indeed food safety refers
to the extent to which food is safe and therefore focuses
on a variety of aspects along the handling, preparation,
and storage processes in order to prevent illness and
injury [19]; in other words, food safety pertains to manipulation, preparation, transportation, and storage processes where, especially for fresh and frozen goods,
food contamination and degeneration may occur.
On the other side, the term food security may
assume at least two different meanings. Indeed, it may
be referred both to food availability [20] that is dealt with
extensively by FAO [21] and to the transposition of
security issues, as far as known in other contexts, to
food production and distribution. The latter meaning
suggests the concept of food defense that refers to
those actions against terrorist or criminal attacks on the
supply chain [20] including even ideological actions
aimed at causing the supply chain failure.
Anyway when dealing with food supply chain and
with related concepts such as SCR, food safety and food
security, risk analysis and management is unavoidable.
As a matter of facts risk analysis has been extensively

External risks

Environmental
Supply

Demand
Vulnerability
Process

Internal risks

Figure 1 External and internal risks for the supply chains

Control

547

dealt with in Understanding Supply Chain Risks; a Self

Assessment Work Book (2003) where risks are classified
into external and internal. External risks pertain to epidemics, wars, politic problems, and natural disasters;
generally speaking those risks are external to the supply
chain and therefore hardly predictable and quite impossible to face. However, this perspective is not absolute
since risks arising from the market or from suppliers can
be classified as external risks for companies while,
according to the supply chain point of view, the same
risks are deemed internal. Moreover, process-related and
activity-related risks are totally internal for companies
(Figure 1).
In the wake of the aforementioned classification,
Christopher and Peck [22] have categorized risks into
three macro-areas identifying five risk categories:
1. Risks internal to the firm:
(i) Process
(ii) Control
2. Risks external to the firm but internal to the supply
chain:
(i) Demand
(ii) Supply
3. Risks external to the supply chain:
(i) Environmental
From a methodological and technical point of view, the
work proposed by Longo and ren [15] is a meaningful
link between theory and practice. Trying to clarify the
complex problem of SCR and risk management, Longo

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A. G. Bruzzone et al.: Safety and Security in Fresh Good Supply Chain

and ren [15] identify the most challenging research

areas in the field:
1. Supply chain vulnerability, security, and resilient
management
2. Methods for demand forecasting and supply risk analysis in supply chain
3. Information management and visibility along the
supply chains
4. Supply chain life-cycle costing
5. Modeling/simulation devoted to support supply chain
resilience
Here, M&S is a practical response to detect successful
management strategies taking into account supply chain
variables, interrelations, and constraints. Thus M&S
serves a bridge between ontology and problem solving
to face complexity and deal with uncertainty, especially
in fresh good supply chain which encompasses an additional layer of complexity due to the intrinsic nature of its
own processes and its chain of value [23].
To this end, it is well worth considering that some of
the most relevant examples and applications of M&S for
fresh food supply chain can be found in Massei [23],
Bruzzone and Tremori [24], Busato and Berruto [25],
Rossi [26], and many others.
Bruzzone and Tremori (2006) and Massei (2006)
apply M&S in fresh fish and meat supply chains, providing tools integrated with optimization techniques for testing methodologies and supporting decision makers.
Busato and Berruto [25] focus on simulating the process
of recalling contaminated products using the discrete
event simulator (DES) paradigm. Similarly Rossi [26]
investigates the impact of dual sourcing strategies on
fresh fruits quality. On the other hand external risks
such as terrorist attacks have been considered in
Bruzzone and Tremori [24] where simulation is intended
to analyze the impact of adverse events on retail networks. Besides the model avails of System Dynamics
Techniques in order to take into account a variety of
factors such as the influence of media broadcasting
news and customers concerns. Other interesting
applications and case studies can be found in Bruzzone
et al. [27, 28].
Moreover the economical effects of catastrophic
events on the supply chain have been analyzed by
Ernst and Young [29] focusing on the issues of quantifying economic losses and maximizing losses recovery. In
addition, this research can be easily and effectively
integrated with the study of Sun and Yu [30] on demand
variability and probability distribution of losses in case
of damage.

3 The fresh good supply

chain risks
Needless to say that a good understanding of fresh food
supply chain is a necessary precondition for a successful
simulation model development. In particular, the proposed research is intended to simulate how contamination phenomena propagate along the supply chain and
their related effects. To this end, the research scope has
been narrowed to fish supply chain that has been analyzed in dept. At first, data about products flowing along
the supply chain have been collected; due to the strong
influence they have in the structure of the supply chain.
In particular fish can be classified by its origin/production into farmed fish and fished fish or can be also
classified according to its storage conditions into fresh
fish and frozen fish. Such classifications are very important, since they affect the supply chain management and
the very nature of its operational processes. Indeed each
kind of product requires specific conditions and can add
particular constraints, i.e. fish products have to be kept
under temperature control during the whole process (i.e.
handling, transport, processing, etc.). As a matter of facts
fish products are potentially hazardous especially if they
are not stored and managed at correct temperatures; in
such a case bacteria and toxins may grow to levels that
are unsafe for consumers. For instance, the distribution
process is really critical because each time the refrigerating room or the refrigerated truck is opened the temperature may change allowing microorganisms responsible
for food contamination to reproduce at a higher rate
[31]. Besides fodder and water quality affect both fished
and farmed fish quality: farmed fish has a high probability to be contaminated by farmers that feed on fish while
fished fish can be contaminated when it comes from
polluted areas or from areas affected by environmental
damages (i.e. discharging toxic substances into the sea).
Moreover, food contamination may occur at any
stage of the production and distribution process [32] i.e.
during food transfer by vessels, trucks, or planes along
the supply chain using tanks of aluminum, wooden, or
polystyrene with dry ice, during the stages of the manufacturing process (cutting of the head, evisceration, storage, freezing, or packaging), or lastly at the storage
places (cool boxes, refrigerated containers, cells,
shelves). Although these are just some examples of the
complexity of fresh food supply chains, it is evident that
the number of variables that should be considered for the
simulation is quite huge and that there are many processes that are mutually interacting with each other. In

A. G. Bruzzone et al.: Safety and Security in Fresh Good Supply Chain

terms of methodology, the specific nature of such a framework evokes the DES technique that is able to capture
the nature of supply chains. As a result the dynamical
behavior of the whole supply chain results from many
interacting entities, processes, and variables whose behavior is driven by specific events.

4 Model description
To tackle the complexity of fish products supply chain and
investigate the propagation of one or multiple contamination events along the supply chain, an ad hoc model has
been developed. The main outcome of the modeling phase
results in a mathematical model aimed at describing in a
pure formalism the dynamic behavior of the whole supply
chain from the supply-side (fishing/farming) to the final
market. The modeling phase is a critical step toward the
development of a simulation based tool able to recreate
the intrinsic complexity of a fresh food supply chain. The
modeling effort has allowed detecting the most relevant
variables and processes as well as the interaction models
causing the system evolution over time. Thus once the fish
supply chain model is drawn, the body of knowledge
required to carry out the subsequent implementation activities is available. In other words the modeling phase
allows detecting the basic patterns governing the supply
chain behavior and provides developers with the relevant
conceptual model for recreating the real system essence in
a synthetic environment. Therefore the ability to capture as
faithfully as possible the working logics of a real fish
supply chain in a simulation tool provided with predictive
capabilities relies on the accuracy of the underlying model
and as a consequence on capability of abstraction from
irrelevant details [11]. As for the simulation paradigm a
DES approach has been adopted. DES is a discrete-state,
event-driven system; this means that its state evolution
depends entirely on asynchronous events occurring over
time and therefore is suitable for the purpose of the study.
As already said, the simulation model is devoted to
recreate possible contamination phenomena. Therefore
the supply chain stationary conditions of goods flowing

Figure 2 Time sequence of the main events

549

along are perturbed by a certain quantity of contaminated products that can potentially affect every link of
the supply chain; therefore the model is stochastic in
nature and includes stochastic variables. One of them is
the probability of contamination for each link, indicated
as Pj where j identifies the corresponding supply chain
link. During the time interval between the contamination
event occurs and the company becomes aware of it, contaminated food continues moving along the supply chain
toward the shelves that will be reached in a given time,
depending on the supply chain structure (i.e. number of
links, frequency of orders, quantity of stock in the chain).
Obviously, the longer the contamination goes on
before being discovered, the more contamination consequences may be dangerous since contaminated products
may have already reached the shelves or at worst the
consumer.
In Table 1, the main variables are listed, most of them
are related to the time when the main events occur starting from the contamination time up to the hypothetical
time when contamination effects are totally finished.
Table 1

o
f

e
e
e
e
e

Main events considered in the model

time when contamination occurs
time when contamination is discovered by the company
first case of disease/illness/death
the media gives the first announcement of the event
time when the media campaign reaches the maximum level
time when the fear reaches the maximum level
time when the product reaches the market
time when the media campaign stops
time when the fear is equal to zero
contamination event
time when company realizes the problem
first announcement from the media
time media campaign stops
time when the fear is equal to zero

The logical sequence of such events is shown in Figure 2.

The perturbation starts when contaminated products
enter into the supply chain (e ) and ends when contamination effects including customers fears are totally
exhausted ( ).

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A. G. Bruzzone et al.: Safety and Security in Fresh Good Supply Chain

Indeed the simulation starts form a stationary situation where urban distribution centers (UDC), wholesalers,
and retailers are supplied with the requested quantity of
food (Qi ), in order to satisfy a demand Di of each i
category of fish. To this end an analysis of production
and build-up strategies for products with short life cycle
can be found in Solis et al. [33]. At a given time , a
quantity Q of fish is contaminated in a certain part of the
supply chain (i.e. UDC, wholesalers, retailers) and propagates along the chain according to the distribution
systems.
As it is depicted in Figure 2, all the other events do
not have a fixed schedule, because they can happen at
any time within the interval [, ] and with different
sequences. For example a company can detect a contamination before the contaminated products could reach the
market or after they are on the shelves and in such a case
diseases and health effects spread without the company
is aware of.
To this end, within the model, the intensity and the
frequency of quality controls affect both the probability
of contamination in each link and the product quantity to
recover. Moreover the supply chain structure affects the
lead time and, as a consequence, the speed at which
infected products are delivered in both distribution and
recalling processes.
After contamination, there are three possibilities:
I. The company realizes first the contamination and
starts the recalling process
II. Media break the news to consumers;
III. Nobody notices the contamination and it spreads
until customers and media become aware of it.
In case I, the company is able to notice the threat in
advance (i.e. through quality controls) and therefore can
avoid causing people any harm and can even minimize
damages in terms of brand trust and above all in terms of
lost sales due to recalling processes that reduce products
availability on the shelves. This is the best situation since
the company can limit the damage and prevent the media
campaign.
In case II, instead, media spread the news before that
the recalling process is started and therefore the company
faces several issues such as bad reputation and above all
economic losses due claims.
Lastly, in case III, the contamination keeps spreading
until case I or case II occurs and therefore with bad
effects both for the company and for consumers.
Any case, the recalling process entails high costs for
the company because when a quantity of product is withdrawn during the time period Tot elapsed before

refurbishing the market with new and uncontaminated

products, the company may incur in lost sales.
Therefore Tot is the total delay in market refurbishing and can be evaluated according to eq. (1).
Tot C P L

In eq. (1), Tot is made up of three terms C (time to

check the problem), P (time to change production/
supplier), and L (supply chain lead time). As a matter
of facts, it may be required to stop the production until
the contamination source is detected C , and once it
occurs a time period P is needed to adopt appropriate
countermeasures such as check/change/substitute some
production processes and/or suppliers and finally for
products availability on the market the lead time L
goes by.
In this model, the demand after a supply chain contamination is supposed to depend on demand in normal
conditions and to include the effect of media campaigns
when the fear level function is introduced. This function
depends on the amount of information disseminated
by media and represented by the media campaign
function.
In case of contamination, the relation between the
media campaign and the fear level function is shown in
Figure 3 where it is possible to notice that the aforementioned functions have the same shape and that the main
differences can be captured though a set of parameters
ki i 1 . . . 5. Indeed, as shown in Figure 3, the fear level
function is supposed to be proportional to the media
campaign curve.

K2
K5

K3

K1

K4
Time
Media campaign
Fear level

Figure 3 Fear level and media campaign in case of contamination

event

A. G. Bruzzone et al.: Safety and Security in Fresh Good Supply Chain

Therefore, if the media campaign curve is known the

fear level function can be detected based on the ki
parameters:
k1  0: media knows the information before market
k2  0: maximum peak delay
k3  0: market delay to information
k4  0: fear stops only when media campaign stops
k5  0: maximum peak difference

In general we can say that fear is driven by two

opposite forces: it is alimented by media and it is reduced
by time .
Other factors that could be considered, in general,
when contamination occurs are the following:
The demand D0i of the contaminated i-class of food
falls down (3)
The demand for similar products increases (4)
The total fish demand falls down (5)

To this end, the market delay with respect to the media

campaign can be related to the following factors:
I. market does not trust the emergency
II. market does not receive the information
III. market has some inertia in changing its behavior
In addition, the implicit assumption behind the proposed
model is that the market fear will stop only after the
media campaign ends (k4  0).
In order to evaluate D0i , that is the demand of a
generic product i after a contamination event occurs and
the market is aware of it, the initial demand Di is
supposed to be known. Therefore D0i can be expressed
according to eq. (2) where Di is the average value of
Di , Fi is the fear level, a > 0 is a proportionality
coefficient, and is a decreasing factor depending on
the elapsed time.
D0i Di  Fi a

551

D0i

D0i  Di

D0j > Di

D0j <

Di

Dj

5 Case study
The model discussed in the previous section has been
integrated in a simulation model of a real fresh fish
distribution system in North Italy. The logistic network
includes four distribution centers located in Milan,
Genova, Venice, and Bologna as depicted in Figure 5
where even the related market share is reported.

In Figure 4 the qualitative shape of D0i is illustrated. In

general D0i is driven by market fear that is fed by media
and decreases over time ( ).

38%

42%
MI

VE
GE

BO

12%

8%

Figure 4 Qualitative shape of demand function in case of supply

chain contamination

Figure 5 Market share and location of the main fish distribution

centers in the North of Italy

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A. G. Bruzzone et al.: Safety and Security in Fresh Good Supply Chain

The entire supply chain is modeled and simulated with

the simulation software ExtendSim taking into account
both the physical and the information flow. The physical
flow includes goods flowing from suppliers to customers,
while the information flow is in the opposite direction and
consists of data about the market demand and orders from
retailers, wholesalers, and distribution centers.
In Table 2 the parameters determining the effectiveness of the recall process in each link of the supply chain
are reported.

Table 2

In Figure 6 there is a screenshot of the model where

both the information and the goods flow are simulated
along the supply chain. The model results from a
hierarchical approach where model components are
blocks integrated each others. Thus the model resolution
can be improved even after the general framework is
defined.
The demand function is an input variable and therefore is assumed known; moreover, for the sake of simplicity, it is considered constant over time. Each link is

Parameters for effectiveness of recall

Parameter

Description

Value

Time when contamination

occurs

The tracking system recognizes the problem

Time of contamination,
identification of the infected link

Time when the problem is

discovered

The recalling process starts

Time and link of the chain where

recall starts

Transit time

The longer is the transit time the lower is the probability that
contaminated product reaches the market

Total delay of the interested links

of the supply chain

Inventory level

Gives the amount of goods stocked in the chain

Quantity and location

Information time

Its the time needed for sharing the information along the supply chain Delay

Traceability index

Gives the % of product that needs to be recalled, it is a function of the % of products that need to be
supply chain traceability and integration levels
recalled

Time for organizing the

product recall

Time that company needs to start the recalling process

Delay

Time for physical recalling

Lead time for products recalling

Delay

Time to start new products

production/distribution

Time the company needs to produce/supply the market with new

noncontaminated products

Delay

Figure 6 Screenshot of the model

A. G. Bruzzone et al.: Safety and Security in Fresh Good Supply Chain

assigned with a certain probability of contamination

based on the number of quality controls performed in
each section. When a contamination occurs, the system
sets all the other probabilities to zero and a certain
quantity of goods Q starts propagating into the affected
link of the chain. The recall process is activated only after
the company becomes aware of the contamination; at this
stage products are withdrawn from the market. The effect
of traceability systems is taken into account assuming
that the quantity that needs to be recalled in each link
is a given fraction of the total stored quantity and that
such quantity decreases based on tracking systems efficiency. While the recalling process starts, on the market
side the model simulates the contamination evolution
and its outcomes evaluating the number of contaminated
people and the severity of contamination cases with a
stochastic approach. Therefore within the proposed case
study, the simulator has been used to investigate its
potentials and its capabilities to recreate the flow of
contaminated products within the chain taking into
account not only the main actors involved in the distribution process and the impact of their own quality checks
but also the effects of externalities such as media broadcasting news when contaminations occur. To this end two
scenarios have been considered. In the first scenario the
company notices that contaminated products are likely to
be delivered to the final market and activates the recalling processes. Moreover in this scenario, media do not
notice the contamination and therefore no action is
undertaken against the company. In such a case, given

Value
2,177,331

the initial quantity of products flowing toward the final

market, the simulator is able to evaluate the quantity of
products being recalled, the total quantity of contaminated products delivered to market and to each dealer
in the market. Figure 7 shows the overall quantity of
products delivered to the final market over time.
Contaminated products are in red while uncontaminated
products are in blue. In Figure 8 the evolution of recalled
quantities over time is shown.
In the second scenario, the effects of media campaign
are considered. In such a case, the company is pushed to
increase the number of quality checks performed along
the chain and enhance the recalling process to prevent
losses in terms of trustiness and customer safety. On the
market side, the effects of media feed customer fears and
as a result the product demand decreases. In this scenario, the simulator is able to mirror both the company
and the customer behavior. As a matter of facts, Figure 9
results in a decreased number of products delivered to
the final market and in a lower quantity of contaminated
products, while in Figure 10 the improved effectiveness of
quality checks results in a greater quantity of recalled
products.

6 Conclusions
A model for the simulation of a contamination event in a
supply chain is described, and a case study for fresh good

Plotter. Discrete Event

2,157,49
2,137,65
2,117,809
2,097,968
2,078,127
2,058,287
2,038,446
2,018,605
1,998,765
1,978,924
1,959,083
1,939,243
1,919,402
1,899,561
1,879,72
1,859,88
1,840,039
1,820,198
1,800,358
1,780,517
34,716,62

34,930,91

35,145,2

35,359,48

35,573,77

35,788,06

36,002,34

553

36,216,63

36,430,92

36,645,2

36,859,49

Time

Figure 7 Contaminated (red) and uncontaminated (blue) products delivered to the final market

37,073,77

37,288,06

37,502,35

37,716,63

554

A. G. Bruzzone et al.: Safety and Security in Fresh Good Supply Chain

Value
112,4733

Plotter. discrete event

110,844
109,2147
107,5854
105,956
104,3267
102,6974
101,0681
99,43872
97,8094
96,18007
94,55075
92,92142
91,29209
89,66277
88,03344
86,40412
84,77479
83,14546
81,51614
79,88681
78,25749
76,62816
74,99883
73,36951
3,244,442 3,343,423 3,442,404 3,541,385 3,640,366 3,739,347 3,838,328 3,937,309

4,036,29

4,135,271 4,234,252 4,333,233 4,432,214 4,531,195 4,630,176 4,729,157 4,828,138

Time

Figure 8 Recalled products

Value
Plotter. discrete event
676,4322
637,5191
598,6059
559,6928
520,7796
481,8665
442,9533
404,0402
365,127
326,2167
287,3007
248,3876
209,4744
170,5613
131,6482
92,735
53,82185
14,9087
24,00445
62,9176
101,8307
140,7439
179,657
218,5702
257,4833
1,836,32 1,984,227 2,132,133 2,280,04 2,427,947 2,575,853 2,723,76 2,871,666 3,091,573 3,167,479 3,315,386 3,463,293 3,611,199 3,759,106 3,907,012 4,054,919 4,202,825 4,350,732 4,498,638
Time

Figure 9 Contaminated (red) and uncontaminated (blue) products delivered to the final market

is simulated by using DES techniques. The case study

shows the simulator potentials of monitoring contamination products propagation along the chain and evaluating
the effectiveness of recalling processes taking into
account the variability of the demand function due to
the media effect that induces and feeds market fear and
therefore is responsible for the demand reduction.
In future research, a more detailed model may be
considered, by capturing the behavior of the single customer or groups of customers with a disaggregate simulation of the demand profile. For four different categories,
different ways to react to such kind of event may be
considered, namely:

I.
II.
III.
IV.

Spike panic (no demand for all the type of fish)

Moderate panic (no demand only for the contaminated variety of fish)
Slow raising fear (decreasing demand of that particular contaminated fish)
No fear (no change in demand)

Furthermore a more detailed simulation of the supply

chain may be useful in order to capture the influence of
particular technologies (like tags or sensors) that improve
traceability, reduce the risk of contamination, and speed
up the recall phenomena.

A. G. Bruzzone et al.: Safety and Security in Fresh Good Supply Chain

Value
935,892

555

Plotter. discrete event

934,8852
933,8784
932,8716
931,8648
930,858
929,8512
928,8445
927,8377
926,8309
925,8241
924,8173
923,8105
922,8037
921,7969
920,7901
919,7833
918,7765
917,7697
916,7629
915,7561
914,7461
913,7425
912,7357
911,7289
37,480,49

37,564,4

37,648,31 37,732,23 37,816,14 37,900,05 37,983,96 38,067,87 38,151,78 38,235,69

38,319,6

38,403,51 38,487,42 38,571,33 38,655,24 38,739,15 38,823,06

Time

Figure 10 Recalled products under media campaign

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