Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Is s U E 4
C o M B A T I N G T E Ro RR I ssM
M C E N T E R A TW E s T p o I N
NTT
C TC S e
eNNT I N
oB jECTIVE R
NeeL
. ELEVANT R
. IGoR o U
Uss
R E p o R Ts
4 The 2008 Belgium Cell and FATA’s
Network
Terrorist Pipelin
Pipelinee By Hassan Abbas
By paul Cruickshan k
8 President Obama’s Overseas Terrorism
Challeng
Challenge e
By Tom sanderson
11 Improving India’s Counterterrorism
Policy after Mumba i
By paul staniland
14 Leveraging History in AQIM
Communication
Communications s
By Lianne Kennedy Boudal
i
17 AQAP a Rising Threat in Yeme
Yemenn
By Brian o’Neill
19 The Role of the United Nations iin
n
Defeating Al-Qa`ida and Associated
Group
Groups s
By Richard Barrett
3 Although
Baitullah Mehsud,
the head of
Tehrik-i-
Taliban Pakistan
(TTP), accepted
responsibility for
the
March 30 attack on
the police academy,
there are wit-
nesses who heard
some of the
terrorists conversing
in
Seraiki—a Punjabi
dialect spoken in
southern Punjab.
This suggests that
Punjabi militants
either orchestrated
the attack, or at
least collaborated
with the TTP. See
Sa- Responsibility for Pakistan Attack,” New York Times, April 1, 2009.
brina Tavernise and Sharon Otterman, “Militants Claim
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is s U E 4
such as Islamabad, Rawalpindi an andd Perhaps the best of the name began in
Lahore. Ongoing investigations int intoo explanation of th the e 2007, when Maulv
Maulvii
the Marriott Hotel bombing that rocke d Punjabi Taliban’s Nazir, a militant leader
Islamabad in September 2008, in whic which h structure came frofromm who with somsomee
d oz ens of P unja bi sus
ozens pe cts w ere ar reste
suspe rested d Tariq Pervez, the official Pakistani
interrogated,,4 demonstrate th
and interrogated thee newly appointe
appointed d support challenge
challenged d
militants..5 O n
role played by Punjabi militants nee head of Pakistan’s Uzbek foreign
investigator working on the Marriot t nascent Nationa
Nationall fighters residing i n
attack revealed that “all evidence evidencess Counterterrorism South Waziristan, was
of the terrorist bombing led to Sout South h Authority (NACTA) : hailed by somsomee
Waziristan via Jhang [a city in Punja Punjab b “ideas, logistics, cashas a leader of the
where Lashkar-i-Jhangvi has stron strong g [comes] fro
from
m Punjabi Taliban. Thi Thiss
links]. The truck that was rammed int intoo the Gulf. Arab guys, allegation arose
the hotel was also from Jhang.Jhang.”” mainly Egyptian
Egyptianss because Maulvi Nazi Nazirr
and Saudis, are on attracted many
This article attempts to define th
thee hand to provide th thee Punjabi recruits fro fromm
Punjabi Taliban network, in additio n chemistry. Veteran banned organizations
to profiling the three main factions tha
thatt Punjabi extremist
extremistss to fight Uzbe
Uzbek k
plot the attacks, fighters..1 3 The
foreign fighters
while the Pakista
Pakistan n plan worked, bubutt
Taliban provides the not without creating
martyrs. ”9 another frightenin g
m enace in the shape
The name “Punjabi of a reenergized
“Punjabi Taliban. ”
Taliban” was firs
firstt
used for ethnic Punjabis The current Punjabi
associated wit
with
h
Harkat-ul-Jihad-al- Taliban network ha
hass
Islam (HuJI) who , a number of key
under the leadership features. First, it lack
lackss
of Qari Saifulla
Saifullahh any organization or
Akhtar, went to command structur
structure e
support and join th the
e and o p ereraatte
ess a s a
regime of Taliban loo
lo o sse
e n
neetw
tw or k o f
leader Mullah Oma
Omarr
contribute to its ranks
ranks..
O
Who are the “Punjabi Taliban”
Taliban”?? 4 The suspects included “The purpose
The Punjabi Taliban network is a loos loosee of
conglomeration of members of banne
militant groups of Punjabi origin —
banned d
undertaking
members of Lashkar-i-Jhangvi
s e c ta r ian a s w ell
e ll a s th o s e ffo
o c u s ed on tthe
he operations
and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islam.
conflict in Kashmir—that have develope
5 Tariq Butt, “Mastermind of under the
developed d
strong connections with Tehrik -
i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Afgha
Afghan n
Marriott Bombing Es-
moniker of the
capes,” The New
News,s November 17,
Taliban and other militant group
based in the Federally Administere
groupss
Administered d
2008. ‘Punjabi
Tribal Areas (FATA) and North-Wes t
6 Saeed Shah, “Pakistan Blames
Taliban’ is that
Taliban for Lahore At-
Frontier Province (NWFP) .6 T he heyy
shuttle between FATA and the rest o f tack Which Leaves 11 Dead,” they have the
Pakistan, providing logistical suppor t Guardian
Guardian,, March 31, 2009;
freedom to
Rahimullah Yusufzai, “And Now
to FATA- and Afghan-based militants t o
conduct terrorist operations deep insid inside e
There is Tehrik-e-Tali- operate
Pakistan. Between March 2005 an andd
ban Baluchistan,”
Baluchistan,”TheThe New,s March
without the
4, 2009.
March 2007 alone, for example, abou aboutt
7 Aamir Latif, “Punjabi Taliban level
2,000 militants from southern an and d
northern Punjab Province reportedl reportedly y
Rise in Waziristan,” Is-
of command
lamOnline.net, April 22, 2009.
moved to South Waziristan and starte started d
8 This information is based on and control
different businesses in an effort t o
create logistical support networks networks..7
an assessment shared by
inherent when
a senior oficial of the Ministry of
Given their knowledge about Punjab Punjabii
cities and security structure, they hav have e
Interior, Islamabad. working
proved to be valuable partners for th thee for the more
TTP as it targets cities in Punjab, suc such h
as Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad Islamabad..8
established
elements from distinct guerrilla tactic
militant outits.” militant groups
groups..
tacticss
and sabotage. The
Members from Lashkar-
Punjabi Taliban ar aree
i-Jhangvi (LeJ)(LeJ),,
increasingly using
mid-1990s..1 0 Th
in Afghanistan in the mid-1990s T he
e S ip ah-i-S ahab a P
ipah-i-S ak ista n
Pak
heavy weapons an andd
(SS P), Jays
Jaysh-h-
s e c o n d t im e t h e n
naa m e w a s u s ed w a ass operating independent
i-Muhammad (JeM)
in 2001-2003 when former Pakistan i of the TTP o r
and their variou variouss
President Pervez Musharraf banne banned d other militant groups
splinter groups are
some militant and sectarian groups tha thatt that belong t o
all considered t o
had a support base in Punjab Punjab..1 1As a result
result,, the area. In late
be part of this loose
soomm e o f th es e e lem e
enn t s b eg an m ovo v in g t o December 2008, fo forr
network. Smal Smalll
FATA to seek safe havens and establis establish h example, five Punjabi
cells unaffiliated with
new camps. These Punjabi militant militantss Taliban killed i n
any larger grou group p
also reportedly established separat separate e a drone missile attack
are also involved.
training centers in FATA, especially i n were observe
observed d
This designation
designation,,
North Waziristan .1 2 T h e m o s t re r e c en t u sse
e “patrolling the area
however, does not
[South Waziristan ]
apply to all member memberss
9 Kaustav Chakrabarti, “Taliban Spreads into Pakistan’s in pickup trucks
o f LeJ,
L eJ, S SP
SS P,, a n d Je M ; it
Heart,” Rediff.com, February 13, 2009.
mounted with heav y
o n ly ref err s t o
re fe
10 Amir Mir, “HUJI Chief Still at Large,” The News
, Sep-
guns and had been
individuals or
tember 23, 2008.
firing at dronedroness
factions who shifte shiftedd
11 These groups include: Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, Sipah-i-Mu-
wherever they spotted
to FATA or
hammad (SMP), Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), Tehrik-
them. The vehicle
vehicless
collaborate closely
i-Jafria (TeJ), Jaysh-i-Muhammad (JeM) and Lashkar-i-
were camouflaged with
wit
with h
Tayyiba. When some of these groups started operating
grass.””15
mud and grass.
the TTP, Tehreek-e-
under new names—TeJ as Islami Tehrik Pakistan, SSP Nafaz-
Nafaz-e-Shariat
e-Shariat-- to Kill 12 in Pakistan,” New York
as Millat-i-Islami Pakistan, and JeM as Khudamul Is- e-Mohammadi (TNSM)
lam—they were also banned in 2003. and other militan
militantt
Times, September 12,
12 Pir Zubair Shah and Salamn Masood, “U.S. Reported groups from the tribal
2008.
areas
areas..
2 13 Mushtaq Yusufzai, “Letter
Second, many of these Explains Drive Against
Foreign Militants in
militants directl
directlyy Waziristan,” The News, April 5,
2007.
benefited from state
14 This patronage developed
patronag
patronage e1 4 in th
the e
because the country’s intel-
1990 0ss (a n d in so m e
ligence agencies utilized them
c as e s e v e n la te
t e rr))
for supporting the insur-
and were
gency in Kashmir against India.
professionally trained
15 “Twin Drone Strikes Kill 5
in
Punjabi Taliban,” Daily
asymmetrical warfare,
Times, December 23, 2008.
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is s U E 4
Third, most of the groups are Sunn Sunnii Major Factions of alignment betwee between n
and Salafist in orientation. A recen recentt Punjabi Taliban Networ Network k al-Qaeda, the
International Crisis Group repor t Lashkar-i-Jhangvi (LeJ)
Pakistani Taliban an and d
maintained that “violent Deoband Deobandii Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan
groups.””2 4 Le J
sectarian groups.
networks in Punjab lie at the root o f (SSP)
w as the firs firstt
Pakistan’s militancy problem. ”1 6 T h he
e Thes e t wo a ss ocia oc ia te d
Punjab-based militant
various components of the Punjab Punjabii and banne
banned d
group to shif shiftt
Taliban owe their ideological trainintraining
g groups a re
re largely
its members to
to hardline Deobandi madrasa network
networkss Punjab-based
Punjab-based..
Afghanistan during th thee
that were nurtured and expanded i n Es t im a t es p la c e L eJ’s
Taliban era. This
Punjab during President Zia ul-Haq’ ul-Haq’ss nu m b er s a t les
lesss
allowed it to establis
establish h
y ea rs in o ffice fro m 197 7-1988. than 1,000, and the
early connections
group is almos almostt
with al-Qa`ida’
al-Qa`ida’ss
Fourth, Punjabi militants are distinc t entirely composed of
leadership in the mid-
from traditional Pashtun Taliban—i n militants. Th The e
1990s
1990s..
t er ms of la ng uag e, d re ss and o thetherr SSP, which is also a
identifiable features. The Punjabi Taliba
Taliban n political group, ha hass Many mosques and
are comparatively more educated, bette betterr been estimated to have
equipped and technologically savvie savvierr around 100,00
100,000 0 madrasas linkelinked d
counterparts..1 7 Thi
than their Pashtun counterparts Thiss active members, but
with LeJ and SSP in
is a result of their upbringing in Punja
Punjab b the number o f
Punjab operat
operate e
Province (which has better educationa
educationall active fighters is
as the networking
facilities) and urban linkages wher where e probably in the 2,000 2,000--
centers for th thee
internet access and communication
communicationss 3,000 rangerange..2 1
Punjabi Taliban .2 5 After
equipment are more readily available
available.. Although both group groupss
recent policpolice e
are anti-Shi`a in
interrogations of LeJ
Fifth, unlike TTP cadres and Afgha
Afghann essence, their member memberss
members, Karachi’
Karachi’ss
Taliban, the Punjabi Taliban ar aree have been involved
police chief
purportedly more prone to mercenar mercenary y in pursuin
pursuing g
publicly maintaine
maintained d
actions. Pakistani intelligence source sourcess other agendas vis-à-
that these militants
claim that the Punjabi Taliban can b e vis Kashmir an and d
“confessed t o
hired by domestic as well as regiona regionall Afghanistan. For
involvement in
operators to undertake f rre
eelan
elan cce
e instance, one of th thee
attacks on securit security y
operations..1 8 For instance, it is widel
operations widely y former members of the
forces and NATO
known in Punjab law enforcemen
enforcementt SSP, identified a s
suppliers in norther
northern n
circles that many in the Punjabi Taliba Taliban n “Commander Tariq,”
areas” of Pakistan
criminals..1 9 The
began their careers as criminals They y reportedly head headss
while also admittin
admitting g
originally moved to FATA (after thei theirr the local Taliban in
organizations were banned) to rais raise e Darra Adam Khel Khel,, 21 These numbers are derived
funds through drug smuggling an and d located between the
acquire weapons from the weapon weaponss Kohat area in th thee
from various reports. They
markets of Dara Adam Khel Khel..2 0 NWFP and Orakzai
Agency in FATA FATA.. 22 are only general estimates.
believed to be th
thee
“lynchpin of the
that they select “prospective fighter fighterss in Kashmir. ”29 Although
from the city [Karachi] and train trainss the governmen
governmentt 26 Faraz Khan, “5 Lashkar-e-
them in Waziristan and Miranshah fo forr of Pakistan claims
combating security forces. forces.””2 6 D e
essp
p it
ite
e they do not kno knoww Jhangvi Activists Arrest-
being banned, both groups are activ active e the whereabouts of
throughout Pakistan. Although LeJ ha ed,” Daily Times, April 9, 2009.
hass JeM’s chief, Masoo
Masood d
been targeted by Pakistan’s civil an 27 HuM, largely dismantled, had
and d Azhar, it is rumored
military agencies, the SSP has largel linkages with the Kash-
largely y that he is wit
withh
m a n a g ed t o e s c a p e s u c h t a r g e ti ng mir theater as well as with al-
t ing Baitullah Mehsud in
b ec ause of its larger support base, eviden Qa`ida. Its leader, Fazlur
evidentt South Waziristan .3 0
through the fact that prior SSP candidate Rahman Khalil, was a signatory
candidatess
have won national assembly seats to Usama bin Ladin’s
seats.. Conclusion
1998 declaration of war. It
More information is
Jaysh-i-Muhammad (JeM) largely remains committed to
needed to full fully
y
A splinter group of Harkat-ul Mujahidi n the Kashmiri cause.
understand the
(HuM) ,2 7 JeM derives its strength fro 28 These numbers are derived
fromm dynamics of the PunjabPunjabii
Punjab Province. Although banne from various reports.
banned d Taliban network, but
in 2001 and having faced interna They are only general estimates.
internall early indicator s
divisions, it is still operative an 29 Chris Brummitt, “Pakistan
andd are that it is still in
c ha nge s its nam e ev e Militants Strengthen in
hange erry
y few
fe w yea
y ea rs t o the initial stages o f
e va de sc rutiny. Ge ne Heartland,” Associated Press,
nerral
al estim a tes plac
ates placee development. It caters
its active ranks at around 5,000, wit March 23, 2009.
withh to the aspirations
aspirations,,
about 1,500-2,000 fighters .2 8 P art o f 30 A large JeM-controlled
financial needs and
t he re aso n its cad re s are not pursue madrasacum “physical activi-
pursued d worldview of thos thosee
effectively is due to the incompetenc ty center” in the heart of Masood
incompetence e militants who believe
of civilian law enforcement. Pakistan Azhar’s home city of Ba-
Pakistanii that they wer weree
analyst Amir Rana, however, allege hawalpur is still operational.
allegess ab ando ne d by the
that another factor explains why Je Azhar reportedly launched
JeM
M inte llig e nce a genc ie
iess
has retained its strength: “The militar his new book from there in early
militaryy in pursuance of
wants to keep alive its strategic option 2008.
optionss Musharraf’s directive
directivess
3
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is s U E 4
of choice for aspiring jihadists fro fromm Iraq, along with a to travel to Afghanistan
Belgium and other countries on th thee section dedicated t o to fight agains
againstt
European continent. According to the s peec
pe ec hes of top al- Americans to restore
Grignard, “Not since the year befor before e ad ers..1 7
Qa `id a le aders the Taliban t o
9/11 have we seen as man nyy pe
p e o p le t ra v e
ell By the end of 2008, power. Garsallaoui
towards the Afghanistan-Pakista n the site had mor more e allegedly emphasize
emphasized d
conflict region. ”1 2 T his v ie
This ieww is echoe
echoed d than 1,400 that jihad in
b y U .S
.S.. inte llig enc e age
a ge ncie
nc ie s who
w ho ha v vee subscribers..1 8
subscribers Afghanistan was a
observed an “an influx of new Wester Western n Authoritie s religiou
religiouss
recruits into the tribal areas since mid mid-- in Belgium, however, duty and also cast the
2006. ”1 3 In February 2009, Directo r could do little t o fighting in heroi
heroic c
of National Intelligence Dennis Blai Blairr prevent el-Aroud and glamorous tonestones..2 3
warned that “the primary threat fro from m from administerin g
the sitsitee d ue tot o stro
s tro ng Garsallaoui’s
Europe
Europe-- based extremists stems from al al--
Qa`ida and Sunni affiliates who retur return n fr e e d o
omm o f ssppee e ch
protections under recruiting was no
nott
Belgian law law..1 9 restricted to Belgium.
He also recruite
recruited d
According to Grignard, two French
subscribers to Minba Minbarr
websites suc such h S O S w h o f or leg a l
as Minbar SOS r ea so n s c a n o n ly b e
function as recruitin
recruitingg identified by their
grounds for terrorist initials H.A. an and d
operatives wh who o W.O..2 4 W.O. claimed he
W.O
use them to identify was arrested b y
individuals willin g Turkish police in the
to fight jihad. “It’s a summer of 200 2008 8
good way to ge gett after he tried to return
p e op le ttoogg e the
therr a nd to Europe fro from
m
the n ese s ta b lis h a
blis
from training in Pakistan to conduc
conductt 13 J. Michael McConnell, “Annual
States.””14
attacks in Europe or the United States. Threat Assessment of
the Director of National
“Their accounts
Intelligence for the Senate Select suggest
Unlike the Iraqi insurgency, fightin g
Americans in Afghanistan does no nott Committee on Intelligence,” U.S. that jihadist
seem to have lost its luster for Europea
European n Senate Select Commit-
militants. It appears that aspirin
aspiring
g tee on Intelligence, February 5, networks in
recruits have wised up to the notionotion n 2008. FATA have
that joining AQI means leaping aboar
aboardd 14 Dennis C. Blair, “Annual
a rapidly moving conveyor belt fo forr Threat Assessment of the relatively
bombing..1 5
suicide bombing Intelligence Community for the loose
Senate Select Committee
Recruitmen t
on Intelligence,” U.S. Senate organizational
T h e r ec en
e n t B e lg ia n c a s e p ro v id e s a
window into how young Europea
es Select Committee on Intel- structures.”
European n ligence, February 12, 2009.
militants are lured to Pakistan’s triba triball 15 Personal interview, Alain
areas. Belgian police claim that el-Arou el-Aroud d Grignard, head of counter-
and her husband, Moez Garsallaoui Garsallaoui,, more secret dialogue
terrorist operations for the
acted in tandem to encourage individual individualss Belgian Federal Police, Au-
to leave Belgium to fight in Afghanistan
Afghanistan.. gust 2008.
El-Aroud, they argue, inspired radical - 16 Robertson and Cruickshank. with people tha
thatt
leaning youngsters to sign up fo forr
jihad through inflammatory posting s are interesting to the
on a website she ran called “Minba “Minbarr organization,” h e
SOS.” Garsallaoui, for his part, toure toured d explained..2 0 Belgian
explained
Brussels’ immigrant neighborhoods t o counterterroris
counterterrorism m
physically recruit peoplepeople..1 6 officials said that
monitoring he herr
During an interview for CNN thre
threee website helped identify
years ago, el-Aroud explained how sh
shee the presence o f
administered Minbar SOS, her Frenc
Frenchh a recruiting network
language website. The website include
includedd for Afghanistan .2 1
postings of attacks on U.S. troops i n
El-Aroud’s iconic status
12 Robertson and Cruickshank.
FATA. When he was was carrying a
appears to hav
havee later interrogate
interrogated d
significantly larger susum
m
by French
a tt ra cte d H ic ha m B e ya y o , 23
icha 2 3 , o ne o f cash..2 7 Garsallaoui
in cash
authorities, he
the young Belgian Moroccans arreste arrested d set off first anandd
provide
provided d
in th e c a s e, w h o b e c am e a M inb a r SO
SOSS the others followed
an extremely detailed
site administrator before travelin traveling g two weeks laterlater..
account of hi hiss
Pakistan..2 2 Beyayo claims tha
to Pakistan thatt They eventually
journey to the tribal
Garsallaoui recruited him to fight jiha jihadd arrived in Zahedan i n
areas of Pakistan
Pakistan..
in Afghanistan. Christophe Marchand Marchand,, eastern Iran, a border
During the
Beyayo’s lawyer, said that his clien clientt town describe
described d
interrogation, W.O.
was approached by Garsallaoui in a by the French recruit
state
statedd
mosque near his home in Anderlecht Anderlecht,, W.O. as a ke keyy
that “calls to jihad” on
a tough immigrant neighborhood, an andd
Minbar SOS wer
were e
that el-Aroud’s husband persuaded hi him
m 23 Personal interview,
“incessant” and the
video propagand
propaganda a
17 Personal interviews, Malika el-Aroud and Moez
he viewed on the site Christophe Marchand, lawyer for
Garsallaoui, Guin, Switzerland, February 2006. For the
made him want t o Hicham Beyayo, Brussels,
video of Malika el-Aroud demonstrating her website, see
volunteer . February 2009.
Nic Robertson and Paul Cruickshank, “One Woman’s
24 Details of W.O.’s interrogation
War,” CNN, February 10, 2009. Travel to FAT
FATAA by French authorities
18 This igure is based on the author’s own monitoring of
In December 2007, in January and February 2009
el-Aroud’s website, Minbar SOS. Many more individuals
Garsallaoui’
Garsallaoui’ss were made available to
presumably regularly accessed the site.
recruits gathered in the author by Christophe
19 Personal interviews, Belgian counterterrorism ofi-
Istanbul, Turkey
Turkey.. Marchand, Hicham Beyayo’s
cials, Brussels, January and February 2009.
There were six in total. lawyer. Under Belgian law,
20 Personal interview, Alain Grignard, head of counter-
Two from FrancFrancee defense attorneys can make
terrorist operations for the Belgian Federal Police, Feb-
and four from public details of the legal case
ruary 2009.
Belgium,,2 5 includin g
Belgium against their clients in the
21 Personal interviews, Belgian counterterrorism ofi-
Beyayo and two interests of their defense.
cials, Brussels, January and February 2009.
friends who live livedd 25 This information was drawn
22 Robertson and Cruickshank.
on his square in from W.O.’s interroga-
Anderlecht, Ali el el-- tion.
Ghanouti and Y. 26 Gilbert Dupont, “Les six du
Harrizi .2 6 Garsallaoui’
Garsallaoui’ss réseau kamikaze,” La
plan was to bribe Dernière Heure, December 13,
smugglers to tak takee 2008; Personal interviews,
them illegally across Belgian counterterrorism oficials,
the Iranian an andd Brussels, January and
Pakistani borders to February 2009. Ali el-Ghanouti
FATA. Garsallaou
Garsallaouii and Y. Harrizi were also
instructed each of the charged in the case.
recruits to brinbringg 27 This information was drawn
2,000 euros for this from W.O.’s interroga-
purpose; he himsel
himselff tion.
5
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is s U E 4
staging point for militants traveling t o the name of “Driss” The three page form,
zone..2 8
fight in the Afghan-Pakistan war zone was their principl
principle
e which they signed
signed,,
From there, smugglers took them acros
acrosss handler .3 4 included questions on
the Pakistani border into the tribatriball their marriag
marriage e
A senior status, health, criminal
areas, which they entered on Januar
January y
10, 2008, transiting through Bannu
Bannu,, convictions, an and d
counterterrorism whether or not they
a district that borders both South anand d
North Waziristan .2 9 Beyayo later tol
toldd wanted to becom
become e
source wit
withh bombers..4 0 It
suicide bombers
his lawyer that he was amazed at th the e
lack of controls and how easy it was t o detailed knowledge of a ls o s et o u t p re
recc is
isee
e nte r the a rea.3 0
area. the investigatio
investigation n rules for their
told the author that conduct in FATA suc suchh
Beyayo’s and W.O.’s accounts of thei
theirr during Garsallaoui’
Garsallaoui’ss as the need to
time in FATA, where they stayed fo forr time in the Afghan- unquestioningly obe obey y
much of 2008, provide a rare glimpse int
intoo Pakistan borde
borderr orders. They were told
the terrorist safe haven. Their account
accountss re gion, he d ev elop ed that they woul
would d
clos e co nnec tions
nnections be punished if they
“They received both with a senior al-Qa`ida failed to adhere t o
operative whwhoo contract..4 1
the contract
religious instruction and orchestrated the 2006
airline plot in th According to the
military training from the
United Kingdom. The
e
7
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is
I s sU
sUE 4
The administration
should capitaliz
capitalizee
on a unique
opportunity to
emphasiz
emphasize e
Barack O ba m a ’s
widely admire
admired d
personal story and
interest in engagin
engaging g
the world to weaken
key elements of ththe e
a robust propaganda arm, trainintraining
g President George W.
facilities, unrelenting motivation, an
andd Bush’s deput
deputy y is both unwillin g
like-minded confederates in Nort Northh national security and unable to keep
Africa, the Middle East and beyond, i t adviser for combatin
combating g its territory fro
fromm
remains a direct threat to nation-states
nation-states.. terrorism, Juan Zarate, being used to
described thithiss launch attacks int into
o
For the past several years, the primar
primaryy conflict zone (in Afghanistan, and is
focus of terrorist activity has been IraIraqq particular Pakistan
Pakistan)) itself a target o f
and South Asia. With a phased pullou
pulloutt as “the greatest geo- extremist groups—
of U.S. and coalition forces from Ira Iraqq political proble
problem m many of whic
which h
underway, American attention ha hass confronting the Obama Islamabad had a direct
shifted to Afghanistan and Pakista
Pakistan n administratio
administration n hand in creating
creating..
as both countries descend furthe furtherr with its FATA safe- Preoccupied by the
into turmoil. With Pakistan’s lawles s haven, creepin
creeping g potential for a
Federally Administered Tribal Area Areass radicalization, nuclear fourth major war with
(FATA) serving as a terrorist saf safe e weapons, an andd its rival India— a
ha ven, the se tw o com plex stat st at e
ess accommodation of country that has
play host to even more confoundin
confounding g radicals.””2
radicals. strengthened it itss
insurgencies, elements of “al-Qa`id
“al-Qa`ida a relationship with the
central,” and criminal warlords, amon
among g Pakistan, for its part, United States, an and d
other destabilizing forces. Forme Formerr
examines the Obama administration’
administration’ss also its presence in
early counterterrorism policies
policies.. Afghanistan—thi
Afghanistan—thiss
tense situation is unlikely
A Complex and Worsening Landscap
Landscapee to change
change..
D e s p iitte
e t h e a b s e n c e o f a n a t t a c k o n U .S.S.. Given the distinct possibility
so il since S ep te temmb b er 11,
11 , 2 00 1, terroris
terrorism m that th
thee
re
remma a ins a threa t and prese nts a grea gr eatt United States and other
test for intelligence and law enforcemen enforcementt members o f
a g e n c i e s . S iin
n c e th e S e p t e m b e r1 1 a t ta c k ss,, the International Security
al-Qa`
al-Qa ` ida id a ha s bee n d am ag ageded b y effec tivtivee Assistanc
Assistance e
Western policies to reduce its fundin funding g Force (ISAF) may depart
sources, the killing or capture of ke key y Afghanista
Afghanistan n
personnel, and through its own excesse excessess without having achieved
in Iraq. Nevertheless, it remains intac intactt clear victory
victory,,
and potent. With proven global reach reach,, it is possible that al-Qa`ida
would b e
revitalized for being
perceived as th the
e
group responsible for such a
defeat
defeat..
of violen
violentt
groups in Pakistan and
Afghanistan
Afghanistan,,
there are a number of
other troubltrouble
e
s p o ts . In Ba ng la desh,
extremis
extremistt
movements, which
have alread
already y
64 Robertson and Cruickshank. 1 The anticipation for change targeted the civilian
was a result of Obama’s
65 Personal interviews, Belgian counterterrorism ofi- leadership of Prim
Primee
early statements about the
cials, Brussels, January and February 2009.
planned closure of the deten-
66 Personal interview, Alain Winants, director of Bel- 2 This statement was made by
tion facility at Guantanamo Bay,
gium’s State Security Service, Brussels, February 2009.
the closure of CIA secret
detention centers, and the Juan C. Zarate at a Cen-
repudiation of controversial
ter for Strategic and International
interrogation techniques such as
Studies roundtable on
waterboarding.
March 11, 2009.
8
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is s U E 4
Minister Sheikh Hasina, could tak takee that Yemeni militants conditions and
advantage of a nation in turmoil that i n affiliated with al al-- threat
threatss
February 2009 witnessed a mutiny b y Qa`ida have traveled to
facing the United
guards..3 Coupled wit
its own border guards withh nearby Somali
Somalia a
States and its allies
allies,,
severe stress on the environment, hig highh to collaborate with
the Obama
levels of corruption, and a crowde
crowded d an al-Qa`ida
al-Qa`ida--
administration needs
population living in poverty an
andd affiliated group of
an
despair, Bangladesh is a dark cloud o n Islamist militant s
aggressive
the horizon
horizon.. al-Shabab..5
known as al-Shabab
counterterrorism
strategy
strategy,,
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has mad
madee De sp ite the s er io
erio us
but one that is mindful
strides in countering al-Qa`ida an and
d of other foreig
foreignn
da ma ge suffe
s uffe re
redd
its supporters since the attacks insid
insidee policy initiatives and
the kingdom began in earnest in Ma May y by al-Qa`ida, the
of the messag
message e
2003. With thousands arrested and a group continues t o
they deliver. It is to
“disengagement” program targetin
targetingg benefit from a widely
be expected tha thatt
young radicals, these developments
developments,, held perceptio
perception n
any new approach will
that the West is
be characterize
characterized d
“With a Kenyan father, a leading a “Crusade
“Crusade””
by a more nuanced
to destroy Islam and
middle name of ‘Hussein,’ to occupy an andd
attitude from th the e
White House. Much of
and a childhood education exploit traditional
Barack Obama’
Obama’ss
Muslim lands. Th The e
in Indonesia—the world’s global downturn,
popularity at home
and abroad stem
stemss
largest Muslim-majority widely blamed o n
from his pre-election
American “greed” and
country—President Obama “arrogance,” wil l
repudiation o f
certain Bush
shatters much of the serve to reinforce
administration-era
this argument an and d
negative imagery that some prove to be valuable
tactic
tacticss
and strategies against
associate with executive propaganda fo forr
terrorist groups
groups..
extremists. Usama bin
leadership and power in Ladin himsel
himselff
Given the damaged
reputation of al al--
the United States.” has reportedly used
Qa`ida—best visible
the U.S. financia
financiall
by its erosion o f
crisis as a
support in Iraq—and
propaganda tool,
according to U.S. Director of Nationa
Nationall the enthusias
enthusiasm m
claimin
claiming g
with which the world
Intelligence Dennis C. Blair, “hav
“havee that “the United
has greeted th thee
rendered the kingdom a harsh operatin
operatingg States is staggerin
staggering g
new U.S.
environment for al-Qa’ida. ”4 under the attacks of
administration, there
the mujahidin an and d
is a n
The greater regional threat is on th
thee their consequences…It
opportunity to make
southern tip of the Arabian Peninsul
Peninsulaa is drowning i n
gains
gains..
in lawless Yemen, home to the larges
largestt a financial crisis, so
contingent of prisoners still detained a t much so that it i s
Guantanamo Bay. A weak state, Yeme Yemen n begging from big and
is host to extremists who operate wit with
h small countrie
countriess
relative impunity in towns and acros
acrosss alike. ”6 With global
large areas of ungoverned tribal territory
territory.. unemploymen
unemploymentt
It is from Yemen that many expertexpertss surging, and
crackdowns by
anxiou
anxiouss
leaders worsening,
this economic tur turn n
of events injects
vigor and seemin
seeming g
validity into these
arguments..7
arguments
Resetting the
Counterterrorism
Strategy
Strategy??
With these
At first glance , the Obam ma
a administration also Clinton);;9
William J. Clinton)
administration’s initial few decision s strongly stresse
stressed d the use of
might cause confusion as to wher wheree “democracy interrogation
the president stands on controversia
controversiall promotion” as the techniques
techniques,,
policies. While President Obama quickl
quicklyy long
long-- such as
ordered the closing of the detentio
detention n term antidote to “waterboarding,” that
facility at Guantanamo Bay, an
andd terrorism. The military , hav
have e
directed all U.S. intelligence officers no
nott intelligence, financial, been described as
to exceed the interrogation technique
techniquess law enforcement
enforcement,, “torture”; warrantles
warrantlesss
found in the U.S. Army Field Manual
Manual,, and diplomatic arms of surveillance of
other decisions have signaled that som some e the United State
Statess communication
Bush administration policies will b e played key roles in betwee
between n
kept in place or only altered slightly. A carrying out thesthese e terrorism suspects
review of still emerging policies reveal
revealss policies, although too and U.S. citizens citizens;;
broad objectives and continued, thougthoughh much emphasi
emphasiss the indefinite
modified, tactics
tactics.. was probably placed detention of suspect suspectss
on the militar
military y at Guantanamo Bay or
President B ush’s
us h’s 2006 Nationa l
options. Some of the in CIA secre
secrett
Strategy for Combating Terroris
Terrorismm most controversia
controversiall ov
o v e rse a s p ris ons
riso ns ; the
included four main pillars: 1) Preven Preventt tactics employed by susp
s usp e nsio n o f
attacks by terrorist networks; 2) Den Deny y the United State
Statess hab eas
ea s c or pus for fo r
WMD to rogue states and terrorist allie alliess included suspe
s uspe ct
ctss;; a nd th
and the e
who seek to use them; 3) Deny terrorist
terroristss “extraordinary designation of
the support and sanctuary of rogu rogue e renditions ” captured individuals a s
states; and 4) Deny terrorists contro controll of terrorism suspects “enemy combatants.”
o f a ny nation
nat io n they w ould use as a b asasee (a policy begu
begun n Even though som some e
terror..8 The B us
and launching pad for terror ushh under President
inside and outside of the governmen
governmentt of
o f thes
these e tac tics e nd ed
nded
anticipate future plots against the Wes
Westt befo
b efo re P resid enentt
and its Arab allies. There are also sign
signss Obama entered office
5 “Qaeda Bomber Behind
Yemen Attack Trained in So- —including th thee
3 Julikar Ali Manik and Somini Sengupta, “Army’s Bor- malia,” Reuters, March 17, 2009.
6 On January 14, 2009, a new
der Guards Rebel in Bangladesh,” New York Times, Feb- 8 George W. Bush, “National
audiotape purportedly by
ruary 25, 2009.
Usama bin Ladin appeared on
4 Dennis C. Blair, “Annual Threat Assessment of the
Islamist web forums. Bin
Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee
Ladin claimed that the United Strategy for Combating
on Intelligence,” U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intel-
States is “drowning in a i- Terrorism,” White House
ligence, February 12, 2009.
nancial crisis,” partly as a result National Security Council,
of “mujahidin” attacks. September 2006.
7 Michael T. Klare, “A Planet at 9 “Fact Sheet: Extraordinary
the Brink: Will Econom- Rendition,” American Civil
ic Brushires Prove Too Virulent Liberties Union, December 6,
to Contain?” TomDis- 2005; Tim Weiner, Legacy
patch.com, February 24, 2009. of Ashes: The History of the CIA
(New York: Doubleday,
9
2007).
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is
I s sU
sUE 4
practice of waterboardin
waterboardingg1 0 an d th thee that “if we had a ticking-bomb Perhaps one of the most powerfu powerfull
prisonss1 1 — it h a
CIA’s use of secret prison ass situation
situation,, and promising developments in
been widely recognized that they and obviously, whatever was bein beingg counterterrorism is the direct challeng
challenge e
cause
causedd used I felt was not sufficient, I woul
wouldd that Ba ra ck Ob am a’s a sc e nd ancy t o
damage to the U.S. reputation abroad
abroad.. not hesitate to go to the president power and collaborative approac
approach h
of represents to al-Qa`ida’s
While President Obama is canceling the United States and request legitimacy
legitimacy..
whateve
whateverr President B us h’s controversia
controversiall
som
somee additional authority I would policies and public persona appeare
appeared d
14
Bush administration need. ” to serve as an effective recruiting
counterterroris m The new administration has als alsoo an
andd
policies, a complete scrapping is continued—if not increased—Predato
increased—Predatorr propaganda tool for Usama bin Ladi Ladinn
no
nott Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV
(UAV))
likely. The differences between the strikes, and is targeting the
tw
two o Pakistan
Pakistanii
presidents do not extend to the
cor
core e
policy of preventing attacks on most extreme interrogation tactics, Taliban, specifically the Baitulla
Baitullahh
th
thee Mehsud network .1 5 While this ma may y
hi
hiss
United States and its citizens, but
CIA Director Leon Panetta noted in hi hiss arguably complicate counterinsurgenc
counterinsurgency y
rathe
ratherr
February 6, 2009 nomination testimon testimony y efforts by inflaming public sentimen sentimentt
t o s o m e o f th e te c h
hnn iq u e s no te d ab o ve
ve,, and generating additional recruits fo forr
and to the manner with which the Taliban-affiliated militias, the Predato r
10 The last known case of waterboarding in the
Unite
United d strikes are one of the only tools
S ta te s purs ues
ue s its goals. P res iden id entt at
United
Obama and his national security America’s disposal for killing al-
team
team,, States occurred in 2003. See Renee Schoof, “CIA
Qa`id a
which includes several individual individualss Direc- and Taliban leaders and operators wh who o
administration,, tor Acknowledges Use of Water Boarding,” McClatchy are attacking U.S., NATO, Afghan, an
who served in the Bush administration andd
recognize the threat posed by Newspapers, February 5, 2008.
targets..1 6
Pakistani targets
al
al-- 11 Don Gonyea, “Bush Concedes CIA Ran Secret Prisons
Qa`ida and other groups, especiall especially y Abroad,” National Public Radio, September 6, 2006. The Obama Administration’s early Move Moves s
those seeking WMD capabilities. Th Thee 12 This is considered by many to be either naïve or While the new administration’ s
Obama administration, for disin-
counterterrorism strategy is yet to
example
example,, genuous given the realities of interrogation practiced
be
has allowed the CIA to continue th thee by fully determined, the official Whit White e
practice of rendition to some of the United States’ more aggressive partners.
House webpage on homeland securit security y
cooperatin
cooperating g For
provides the broad outlines of it itss
third countries, but is seeking more, see Greg Miller, “Obama Preserves Renditions
approach to overseas radicalism an and d
stronger
stronger,, as
terrorism. The strategy pays particula particularr
m ore reliable
relia ble assura
a ssura nce s tha t sus pe ct ctss Counter-Terrorism Tool,” Los AngelesTim es, February 1, attention to restoring widely-
will not be tortured while in 2009.
admire d
foreig n 13 Charlie Savage, “Obama’s War on Terror May
American values and standards tha thatt
custody..1 2 Other actions reflect th
custody thee Re- many allege were eroded during the
Obama administration’s acceptance semble Bush’s in Some Areas,” New York Times, Febru- las lastt
of ary 18, 2009.
eight years of the unpopularly name named d
Bush administration views on the “global war on terrorism.” Five
global
global,, ke
keyy
borderless nature of counterterrorism
counterterrorism.. points of the strateg
strategy y1 7 a r e
e::
This is evident from comments
mad
made e 1. Find, Disrupt, and Destroy Al Al--
during the U.S. Senate Qa`ida ;
confirmatio
confirmation n 2. New Capabilities to Aggressivel Aggressivelyy
hearings for Attorney General Eri Ericc Defeat Terrorists
Terrorists;;
Holder and for U.S. Solicitor Genera Generall 3. Prepare the Military to Meet 2 1s t
Elena Kagan who both suggested that Century Threats
Threats;;
th
thee 4. Win the Battle of Ideas
Ideas;;
terrorism “battlefield” extends to 5. Restore American Influence an andd
area
areass Restore Our Values
Values..
where individuals may be arrested fo forr
providing a range of support to terroris terroristt
groups..1 3
groups
14 CIA Director Panetta did agree, however, that
Additionally, while the Obam
maa
administration has halted the use of
th
thee
America. This was a clear attempt t o
“The Predator strikes denigrate an individual whose persona
personall
story undermines the penetrating an
water- are one of the only tools persistent al-Qa`ida narrative . and
d
11
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is s U E 4
from existing
funding reflects India’s lack of wealth wealth.. aid is unlikely, but and state-centric
Compared to the budgets of even muc much h small measure
measuress rivalries. This is a n
smaller developed countries, Indi Indiaa could make a enormous challenge for
simply does not provide sufficient mone money y significant difference
difference,, a political clas classs
fo r its se s e c urit
urityy a
agge
e ncie s o
onn a p e r c a pit
pitaa particularly if focused focused above all else
is..1 9 This causes them to undertrai
b a s is undertrain n on the cities mos
mostt on the cut-throa
cut-throatt
and understaff their personnel, leadin leading g likely to be attacked in electoral competition
to corruption and a reliance on crud crude e the future (Delh
(Delhii that characterize
characterizess
and often counterproductive policin policing g and Mumbai)
Mumbai).. Indian politics. Despite
techniques. International assistance assistance,, these challenges
challenges,,
in the form of grants for training an and d Finally, India’s political maintaining a degree
equipping police forces, could reduc reduce e of consistenc
consistency y
the impact of this reform on India’ India’ss leadership mus mustt and follow-through is
budget. In the current economi
economic c exert the will to push essential so tha thatt
environment, large-scale internationa internationall past bureaucrati
bureaucratic c
First, they will need the reform process
to be sustaine
sustained d does not stall o r
over a long period of end up wasting huge
time. Dramaticall
Dramatically y amounts of tim time e
bolstering the and money.
12 As Shishir Gupta notes, “Pakistan is only part of the
institutional capacit
capacity y Government minister ministerss
problem.” See Shishir Gupta, “Less Blame, More Action,”
of India’s must not allow
Indian Express, December 5, 2008.
counterterrorism themselves to be use usedd
13 Animesh Roul, “India’s Home-Grown Jihadi Threat:
apparatu
apparatuss as pawns in
A Proile of the Indian Mujahideen,” Terrorism Monitor
is a ta s k o f a t le a s t bureaucratic battles
7:4 (2009).
h a lf a d e ca d e , a nndd ove
overr
14 These are the areas of greatest Muslim demographic
probably longerlonger..1 8 turf, resources, and
presence and also of communal rioting. Although irm
The training o f responsibilities
responsibilities..
data is elusive, many experts argue that the 2002 Gujarat
new and current Spe ecc ia lized tta a s k fo rrc
c es
riots have propelled Islamist recruitment. For more, see
personnel alone i s le d b y e eleclec t e
ed
d
“India Fears that Some of its Muslims are Joining in Ter-
an enormous task, officials, and
rorism,” New York Times, August 9, 2006; “Ahmedabad
much less properl
properly y supported at the
Attacks: The Usual Suspects,” Hindu
Hindu,, August 1, 2008.
highes
highestt
15 The NIA is discussed in levels, must be given
the power t o
R.K. Raghavan, “Terror engage in oversight
over the securit security y
Trackers,” Frontline
Frontline,, January 3-
apparatus. This will
16, 2009.
involve overcomin
overcoming g
16 “Govt Tables Bill to Set Up
a traditional aversion
National Investigation
to transparenc
transparency y
Agency,” Times of India,
on the part of the police
December 16, 2008.
and intelligenc
intelligence e
17 “NSG Inks Agreements with
a g e n c i e s.
Eight Airlines,” Hindu
Hindu,,
March 1, 2009.
19 Sahni, “Uneducable Indian,”
18 See the quote by Praveen
Swami in “Will India’s Secu-
rity Overhaul Work?” BBC, argues that the police-to-
13
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is s U E 4
G iiv
vee n the s e d e ep c ha lle nge
ng e s , the
t he India
Ind iann security forces. In long and difficult, and
lea dership
ders hip is be st a dv dvisis ed to ma m a nag
nage e addition to helpin helping g
is unlikely t o
a pair of distinct projects—first
projects—first,, to prevent and
bring any sudden
building on the short-term changes i n respond to terroris terroristt
suc
succcesse s, but it i s
esses,
coordination that can leverage existin existing g attacks, inc reas ed
ne v ertheles
er theles s e ss ential.
a s s e t s a n d c a p a b ilit ie s , a n d s e c o n dd,, professionalis
professionalism m
engaging in the much lengthier an andd might reduce the P aul Stan ilan d is a
broader task of improving trainin g resentment of th thee
and technical capacities across India’ India’ss security forces in P h . D . c a n d i d a te
security apparatus. Conflating the tw twoo parts of the India Indiann
i n p o l i t iic
cal scien ce a nd
into one grand reform agenda is likel likely y Muslim community,
m em ber of th he
e
to slow both down and undermine th the
e which perceive th thee
S e c u r it y S t u d ie s P ro g r a m
overall effort. India must pursue a police as
a t M IT . D u ri ng
ring
s e ri es o f d is c re tte
e, manage a b le t a s k s i f
ea indiscriminate and
the 200 8-09 a ca dem ic
it is to fortify itself against the threat threatss brutal..2 2
brutal
y e a r , h e i s a lls so a
flowing both from across the border an and d Small but meaningful
predo ctoralresearch
from among its own population population.. grants could als alsoo
f e l lo w ini n t h e B e llff e
err
be provided for
C e n t e r ffo or Scien ce
An American Rol
Rolee training and equippin equipping g
a n d I n t e r n a t i o n al
The United States can play a helpful rol role e po lic e for c e ss..
olic
Affairs a t H ar va rd
in bolstering India’s counterterroris m U niv e rsit
rsity y’s
’s K e nned
nnedy y
Preparing for the
capabilities..2 0 T h er e h a s a lr ea dy
capabilities dy beeenn School of G overnm ent.
extensive cooperation between the U.S U.S.. M r . S t a n i l a nd
Inevitabl
Inevitablee
Federal Bureau of Investigation an and d h a s p u b l iiss h e d i n
Indian security services in the wak wake e Even if significant
International Security,
of Mumbai, illustrating the dramati c reform and IndoIndo--
Security Studies, t h e
improvement in Indo-U.S. relations relations..2 1 U.S. cooperation
Washington Quarterly ,
There has also been increas ed
incre ased emerge, however, it i s
tw o e dite d volum e s , an d
intelligence sharing with India, most o f likely that India will
w iitt h t h e R A N ND D
it obviously related to Afghanistan an and d be hit once agai
again n
C o r p o r a t iio
o n . H i s f iei e ld
ld
Pakistan
Pakistan.. with a significant
r e s e a r c h f o c u s es
terrorist attack. On Onee
o n in s u urr ge
gent a n d
The relationship should move beyon
beyondd of the ke y ccha
ha lle nge s
llenge
p a ra m ilit a ry g ro u p s i n
investigative collaboration an
andd a fter the eve nntt
Sou utt h A s ia a n d N o rt h e rn
intelligence sharing into a broadebroaderr will be avoiding yet
Ire la nd n d..
project of training and capacity building
building.. another cycl
cycle
e
One of the traditional strengths of th thee of rhetorically
U.S. law enforcement establishment ha hass compelling but under under--
been training other countries’ polic police
e resourced, soon-
and domestic intelligence forces. IndiIndiaa forgotten institutiona
institutionall
would benefit enormously from even a reform. There will be
small, but sustained program bringin
bringingg further risks o f
Indian police to the United State Statess an Indo-Pakistan crisis 22 Somini Sengupta, “As Indian
for training, and sending America
American n spiraling out o f
trainers to India to lecture on successfu
successfull control after a
practices. This could be a small progra
program m dramatic incident
incident..
aimed at providing specialized trainin
training g
The United States
to state and federal police
police..
Leveraging the Appeal of Historical Heroe Heroes s linkage between his Palestine..7
Palestine
Between January 2007 and January 2009 2009,, group’s terroris
terrorism m
AQIM communications have mentione mentioned d and the glories of the The p prre
e c ed in g p a s s a g e
one or more of these historical figure figuress past. The statemen
statementt
o n a t l e a s t 1 0 s e p a r a tte
e o c c a s io
i o n s . T h e sse
e implies that current c h a llen g e s lo c a all
r e f e re n c e s h a v e b e e n m a d e b byy severa all generations hav have e
Muslims to continue
different AQIM officials, includin g a duty to continue
their ancestors
ancestors’’
amir Abu Mus`ab `Abd al-Wadud (als (also o fighting what is a n
achievements. It also
known as Abdelmalek Droukdel)
Droukdel),, ongoing struggle for
frames AQIM’ AQIM’ss
Shari`a committee member Ab
Abu u Islam. Similarly
Similarly,,
violence as part of a
`Ubayda Yusuf, and media spokesma spokesman n an October 2008
multigenerationa
multigenerationall
Salah Abu Muhammad. `Abd al-Wadu d speech by Ab Abu u
effort to restore the
has mentioned Yusuf bin Tashfin si six x `Ubayda Yusuf
caliphate, a goa goall
times and referred to Tariq bin Ziya Ziyad d contained the followin
following g
more traditionally
and `Uqba bin Nafi four times each i n exhortation to North
associated with al al--
the past two years. Other AQIM official officialss African Muslims :
Qa`ida’s vision of
frequently refer to all three figures a t global jihadism. Ab Abu u
I e nd m y m e ss a ge
once, as well as other historical figure figuress `Ubayda’s reference to
such as Musa bin Nusayr, `Abd al-Hami al-Hamid d Sebta and Melill Melilla a
b y s a lut
lutiin
ngg
bin Badis, and al-Mu’iz bin Badis. Th The e (Spanish enclaves in
AQIM media committee periodicall periodically y the steadfast
Morocco), whic which h
references historical figures in its attac attack k mujahidin in th thee
some Muslims consider
claims, and several of AQIM’s katibats lands of the
to be ongoin
ongoing g
(combatant elements) are named afte afterr Islamic Maghreb
Maghreb,,
colonial occupations
historical military leaders . you the grandsons
of Morocca
Moroccan n
of Uqba, th the e
territory, links a
AQIM officials are adept at weavin
weavingg conqueror of the
current regiona l
historical references into calls fo forr Maghreb, an and d
grievance to a
greater action or commitment on th the e Musa Bin Nasir, the
historical foe in
part of contemporary Muslims, as i n conqueror o f
suppor
supportt
this September 2008 audio communiqu
communiqué é Andalusia, and
of the argument that
from AQIM amiamirr `Abd al-Wadud, whic h Tariq Ibn ZiyadZiyad,,
North Africa i s
inc lud ed a me
m e ss age dire cted to th
thee the vanquisher of
again “occupied” by
Algerian people
people:: the Romans an and d
foreign forces
forces..
the Spanish, and
Grandsons of Uqbah and Tari
Tariqq [Yusuf] Tashfin
Tashfin,, In September 2008,
and Yusuf bin Tashfin and Al Al-- the hero of Zalaqa,
Mu’iz Bin Badis and `Abd al al-- and Abd al al-- AQIM medi media a
Karim al-Khattabi and `Umar al al-- Hamid Bin Badis,
official Salah Abu
Mukhtar, rise from your inerti a the leader o f
Muhammad’s speec speech h
and put your hands in the hand handss the reforms. Today
defending AQIM against
of your brothers, the mujahidin
mujahidin,, you are th thee
accusations o f
in the al-Qa`ida Organization i n pride of the umma
killing innocent
the Lands of the Islamic Maghre
Maghreb b in a time o f
Muslims contained thi thiss
who have sacrificed their money money,, exploitation; you
fiery
fie ry p assage
assage::
their lives, and their honor fo forr are the hop hope e
the sake of protecting Islam an and d in reclaiming its B e g lad , C ru sa d ers er s
the unity and the reverence of th thee usurped hono honorr
Islamic Maghreb. Gather aroun around d in our broken an d a p os
nd o s t a t es
es,,
the jihad with which Islam starte
started d Islamic Maghre
Maghreb b
with a generation
s o it b ec o m e s t h e on ly f or cce
e and the
that love lovess
and alternative to the regime regimess appropriated
of apostasy that are ruling ou ourr Andalusia
Andalusia,, 7 Abu `Ubayda Yusuf,
countries..6
countries Cordoba, Sicily, and
Zalaqa. W e
“Congratulations on the Occa-
By framing AQIM’s actions as a will not rest and
we will not b e sion of Id to the Nation of
continuation of Islam’s past battles
battles,,
content until we Monotheism,” audio statement,
`Abd al-Wadud seeks to create a direc
directt
regain every inc inch h October 6, 2008.
6 Abu Mus`ab `Abd al-Wadud, “A Message to Our Na- of our usurped land
including th the e
tion in the Islamic Maghreb,” audio statement, Septem-
occupied Sebta and
ber 21, 2008.
Melilla, and le lett
us meet with our
beloved peopl
people e
in the land of
death and martyrdom the wa way y
yo u lo ve life , yo u can e xp ec
love ectt th
thee
multigeneratio Maghreb is in a n
ongoing state of war
battalions of martyrdom and th thee nal effort and that AQIM’
AQIM’ss
lions who hold their fingers o n
the trigger. We will not stop th the e
to restore the sound resp onses t o
actio
a ctio ns ar e leg ally
s ound
raids until the Islamic Maghre
Maghreb b caliphate, Western aggression.
is liberated from Sarkozy an and d
Bush’s representatives. We wil willl
a goal more Abu Muhammad’
Muhammad’ss
focus on the
not stop the raids until every ope open n traditionally “Crusaders” rather
inch is conquered and liberateliberated d tha
by virtuous men such as `Uqb `Uqba a
associated thann
loc al re gim e s places
bin Nafi and Tariq bin Ziyad an and d with al- his s ta te me nntt
Yusuf bin Tashfin and until th thee squarely in line with
banner of Islam is raised hig high h Qa`ida’s al-Qa`ida’s focu
focuss
and you stop your support an and d vision of globalon the “far enemy.
enemy.””
collaboration with the Crusader
Crusaderss
and stop your corruption an and d jihadism.” Conclusion
injustice and humiliation of th thee It is difficult to assess
nation .8 the effectivenes
effectivenesss
these campaigns, Abu of any form of
Abu Muhammad reiterates the them
themee
terrorist propaganda
propaganda,,
of continuity of struggle against th thee let a lo ne me asure the
lone
West, neatly conflating AQIM’s “raids ” im p act
ac t o f thes
these e
Muhammad i s
with military campaigns orchestrate
orchestrated d particular references
by Muslim states whose legitimacy wawass attempting to frame to historica
historicall
recognized at the time. By identifyin
identifyingg AQIM’s violence a s
AQIM as a modern day extension o f legitimate acts of war 8 Salah Abu Muhammad, “Who
conducted agains
againstt
“It also frames AQIM’s enemies of Islam. In
Are the Killers of the In-
other words, h e
violence as part of a is arguing that the nocent Ones?” audio statement,
September 3, 2008.
16
its statements with multiple layers o f
contextual meaning and support it itss
figures. Short of a verifiable arguments that its violent actions
statemen
statementt ar
are e AQAP a Rising Threat iin
n
from a terrorist that described m e re l y the la te sstt s ta g e of a n Yeme
Yemenn
th
thee ong o in ing
g
arguments that convinced him or “just” war against the enemies of By Brian o’Neil
’Neilll
he
herr Islam
Islam..
to join AQIM, the utility of AQIM’ s on march 15, 2009, a suicide bo mb e err
historical analogies will likely neveneverr L ia n n e K e n n e d yB o u d a l ic o n d u c t sr e s e a r ch attacked a group of South
be known. Nonetheless, the o n te r r o r i s m a n d in s u r g e n c y fo r th e R A N D Korea
ND Korean n
frequenc
frequency y C o r p o r a t i o n . S h e p r e v i o u s lly y s e r v e d a s a tourists in Yemen, killing four of the themm
and consistency with which thes thesee S e n iio
o r A s s o c iai a t e //A
A s s is th along with their Yemeni guide. Les
i s t a n tP r o f e s s o r w iith Lesss
references appear suggest that t h e C o m b a t in i n g T e r r o r i s m C e n t e r a t W e sstt than a week later on March 18, the
AQI
AQIM M P o in tt.. Sout
Southh
believes that historical Korean delegation sent to investigate
reference
referencess th
thee
boost their arguments. If at some attack was targeted by another
poin
pointt suicid
suicidee
in the future AQIM were to abando abandonn bomber, who detonated his
such references, it could indicate explosive
explosivess
tha
thatt convoy..1
in the middle of their convoy
the group determined that they
wer
were e These two attacks show that a
ineffective
ineffective..
rumore
rumored d
For the time being, it is clear that peace treaty between al-Qa`ida in
th
thee
AQIM’
AQIM’ss Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and th the
e
references to historical figures Yemeni government is false false..2 Mor
More e
suppor
supportt importantly, the terrorist attack s
both global and local jihadist demonstrate that this reconstitute
reconstituted d
grievances
grievances,, and renamed terrorist grougroup p3 is m o rre
e
allowing the group to leverage adaptable, tactically flexible, an
and d
historica
historicall strategically nimble than previousl
previously y
narratives to support its dual believed. Although the attacks lacke lacked d
objective
objectivess the reach of the 2008 mortar
of overthrowing local regimes an andd assaul
assaultt
participating in al-Qa`ida’s on the U.S. Embassy, they proved
visio
vision n tha
thatt
of transnational jihad against the fa farr AQAP remains a threat to both foreig foreign n
enemy. By referencing historical nationals and to the Yemeni
figure
figuress government
government..
closely associated with North Africa
Africa,, This article examines the implication
implicationss
AQIM creates a link between its action
actionss of the two attacks, and how AQAP ha hass
and those of past figures who fought evolved its propaganda to achieve
to bette
betterr
free the Maghreb from foreign resonance with the Yemeni population
population..
influenc
influence e
and establish Islamic governance. Implications of the Attack
Attackss
Th
The e Taken separately, both of the March
particular figures who are mentione
mentionedd 200
2009 9
include individuals from Morocco , suicide attacks are worrisome. Taken
Libya, and Mauritania; all areas wher
where
e as
AQIM would like to expand its reach
reach.. a set, they reveal an organization that
References to figures associated is
wit
with h both gaining strength and
Islam’s caliphates and its conquest demonstratin
demonstrating g
of a willingness to be influenced by th thee
European territory dovetail with larger jihadist movement. Al-Qa`ida i n
al
al-- Yemen had, before the destruction of
Qa`ida’s rhetorical interest in it
itss
restorin
restoring g initial cadre around 2004 ,4 b ee
eenn la rg el
ely
y
a caliphate and focusing jihadist
energ
energy y 1 There were no casualties, except for the life of
on the far enemy. In sum, AQIM’ AQIM’ss
references to historical figures
the
imbu
imbue e
bomber, in the March 18 attack. APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is s U E 4 Iraq .
2 In early March, several newspapers reported that
there as idiosyncratic in tactics and ideas The March 15 bombing near the
was a potential peace treaty between the government
and iconi
iconicc
as
AQAP. The terms were rumored to be a one-year mudbrick towers of Shibam highlighte highlighted d
the country’s politics. It was willing
cessa- several important aspects of the
to
tion of terrorist activity in exchange for the release group’
group’ss
use the time-honored Yemeni cultur culture e
of strength. The first is that the
of negotiation, and abided by wha whatt
prisoners. It was never conirmed and was shown to be bomber
bomber,,
were essentially non-aggression
clearly false. identified as Abd al-Rahman Mahdi Al Alii
pact
pactss
3 Al-Qa`ida terrorists in Yemen were formerly Qasim al-`Ujayri, used his body as th the
e
with the government. Under the ne new w
known weapon. In the past, al-Qa`ida-affiliate
al-Qa`ida-affiliated d
leadership of Nasir al-Wahayshi an and d
as al-Qa`ida in Yemen. In late January, it announced operatives in Yemen used vehicles o r
Qasim al-Raymi, who reorganized th the e
that boats in their suicide attacks; whil whilee
outfit following a 2006 prison escape escape,,
it was merging with the al-Qa`ida faction in Saudi effective, these attacks did not allow
it has shown an ability to weave
Ara- fo
forr
itsel
itselff
bia, and that the two groups would now be known as great a flexibility in target
into the larger jihadis t framework
under selection
selection..
whil
whilee
one name, al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). This change demonstrates the ability
remaining tied to Yemen’s cultura culturall
4 Gregory Johnsen and Brian O’Neill, “Yemen Faces to
norms. Their leaders have shown
Sec- draw from jihadis
jihadistt tactics used elsewhere
elsewhere,,
respec
respectt
ond Generation of Islamist Militants,” Terrorism such as in Iraq and Palestine
Palestine..
for and knowledge of Yemen’s comple complex x
Focus
tribal system and are able to use it The seco nd asp ec t invo lve s the na tur
4:27 (2007). By 2004, through a combination of se cond a spec lv e ture
e
to
arrests, of the bombing itself. AQAP said in a
their advantage. Their narrative
assassinations and negotiations, the al-Qa`ida statement that the Koreans were
withi n
franchise kille
killedd
Yemen, for example, has focused
partly in revenge for their
17 largel
largely y
government’
government’ss
on the traditional tribal distrust of
cooperation against Islamic terrorism terrorism,,5
th
thee
as well as “the role of these tourists
government in Sana`a. While Yemen Yemenii
in
nationalism exists, the tribal areas
corrupting the ideology of Muslims an andd
ar
aree
their morals.” It seems more likely tha thatt
wary of centralization, and al-Wahaysh
al-Wahayshii
this justification was developed afte afterr
and al-Raymi expend great effort
the attack. According to witnesses,
to
th
thee
pa int the m se
s e lv e s as b e ing o n the s ide
id e
bomber, rather than targeting a group
of
to
the tribesmen against the
government
government..
responsible for the bombing of the USS C olehad ceased
This narrative is a powerful one, an andd
its appeal is rooted in Yemeni triba triball
culture. In this way, AQAP is different , to
and in the long-run more be a viable organization.
dangerous
dangerous,, 5 “Al-Qaeda Claims Killing South Korean Tourists in Re-
than al-Qa`ida’s troubled franchise i n venge,” News Yem en , March 27, 2009.
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is s U E 4
a v e ng
n g e g rie v a n
ncce
e s , s e le c t e d t h e la rg e sstt forums, statements, the Yemeni side side..
group he could find to maximize th the e and publications
publications..
They gained a
impact; they happened to be Koreans Koreans..6 In it, AQAP has
reputation for both
The fact that al-`Ujayri was able t o developed a
skille
skilledd
s elec t his target show s an incr ea s e edd remarkabl
remarkable e
presentation and rapid
level of training and commitment, a s ability to finesse its
response tim time e
he presumably did not detonate hi hiss ideological messag
message e
well before there were
explosives prematurely and was able t o to strike resonant
even rumors o f
wait until he found a target that woul would d chords with disparat
disparate e
Saudi influence in al-
achieve the most impact impact..7 This coul could d audiences. Their
Qa`ida in Yemen
Yemen..
plausibly be tied to the training h e flagship publication
publication,,
purportedly received in Somalia Somalia..8 Sada al-Malahim ( The In the latest issue of
Echo of Battles) , i s
The second attack, although a failure iin
n frequently timed for Sada al-Malahim, Nay Nayff
terms of body count, was a psychologica
psychologicall release shortl
shortly y
Muhammad al-Qahtani,
success that demonstrated AQAP’ AQAP’ss before or after a new
a Saudi citize
citizen n
operational abilities as well as sendin sending g operation, an andd
and AQAP leader,
a m es s a g e tth
hat e
evv en o ffic ia l s ta
t a tu s d o e
ess provides justifications
discussed both th thee
not guarantee protection from its reach reach.. that are bot bothh
recently published list
There are two scenarios of how thi thiss political and
by Saudi ArabiArabia a
attack occurred. The first is that th the e theological, and
of their 85 most
attack had been planned in advance. Th The e manage
managess
wanted terrorist
terroristss
second is that the operation was bor born n and the alleged rape
quickly from a presented opportunity opportunity.. “AQAP’s goal of Muslims b y
At this time, not enough reliabl reliable e U.S. soldiers in Iraqi
information exists to determine whic which h is to prisons..1 0 Th
prisons T he
e
scenario occurred; both, however, ar are e issue demonstrates
troublesome
troublesome.. weaken and al-Qahtani’s skil skilll
bring down in linking the
If the attack had been planned in tande
tandemm
depredations of th
with the first bombing, it reflect reflectss the Yemeni West with the
the
e
Each country is
responsible fo
forr
its own security,
and operationa
operationall
counterterrorism
activity generall y
tak es plac
place e at a nat io nal
natio
level. Ye t, g ive
ivenn
the international nature
of the al-Qa`id
al-Qa`ida a
network ,4 t h e re is a
c le a r ne
n e e d — a nd
universal support—for
a coordinate
coordinated d
international response.
In this respect
respect,,
the United Nations
plays an importan
importantt
role. The United
m em be rs , promotes coordinate
coordinated d have provided a legal role of the Unite United d
international action by designin
designing g framework withi within n Nations in
counterterrorist measures mandator mandatory y which to address counterterrorism; and
for all states; and the United Nation Nationss them. In Septembe
Septemberr 5)
bureaucracy provides mechanisms tha thatt 2006, the General ensuring respect for
coordinate, monitor and assist state statess Assembly adopted b y human rightrightss
with the implementation of the policie policiess consensus a broad when countering
a nd a ggrree
ee m e nt
ntss de c ide d b y t he GeG e ne ra
rall strategy to counte counterr terrorism .7 Giv e en
n
Assembly and the Security Council Council..5 terrorism and identified long-standing
This article explains these thre
three e five main area areass differences over th the
e
entities, examines which of al-Qa`ida’ al-Qa`ida’ss for action: 1) definition of terrorism,
w e ak n ess es
e s c a n be exp e xp lo ite d , an
andd addressing the the adoption o f
identifies five steps the United Nation Nationss condition
conditionss the s trateg
trategy y by all 1 92
can take to help defeat al-Qa`idaal-Qa`ida.. conducive to m em be r-state
r-statess
terrorism; 2) was a remarkable
The General Assembl
Assemblyy preventin
preventing g show of unity an andd
S ince 19 63, the U nited
nite d Na tio ns ha
tions hass and combating determination .
elaborated 13 international instrument
instrumentss terrorism; 3) raising
to counter terrorism and thre
three e th
the e The Security Counci
Councill
additional protocols..6 T h e s e h a v
protocols vee capacity of states to The Security Council
defined specific acts of terrorism an and d counter terrorism
terrorism;; focused on al al--
4) strengthening the
with its disaffected citizenry. Presently
Presently,, Qa`ida following the
however, the militants are growin growing g attacks on th thee
1 For a list of groups U.S. Embassies in
in strength while the government i s established and maintained by
being inversely weakened. If AQA AQAP
P Nairobi and Dar e s
the UN 1267 Committee as
is successful, it could bring the mos mostt Salaam in August
associated with al-Qa`ida,
important front in the struggle agains
againstt 1998. The next yea yearr
Usama bin Ladin, the Taliban
jihad from the wilds of Afghanistan an and
d it adopted resolution
and other individuals,
Pakistan home to the holy lands
lands.. 1267, from whic which h
groups, undertakings and
it developed a
entities associated with them,
B ri a n O ’N e il l, a n in d e p e n d e n t p o llit
it ic a
all worldwide sanction
sanctionss
see
a n a l y s t s p e c ia
i a llii z i n gin Y e m e n , iiss a fo rm e err regime directed
www.un.org/sc/committees/1267/
r e p o r te
t e r fof or t h he e Yem e n Obs Obse erve
rve r. Mr Mr.. against al-Qa`id
al-Qa`ida a
consolidatedlist.
O ’ N e i l l i s t h e c o - a u t h o r o f t h e ffo o rrtt h c o m i ng and the Taliban
htm#alqaedaent.
The Last Refuge: Islam and Insurgency i n following the attack
attackss
2 These countries include:
Yemen
Yemen.. W i t h G r e g o r yJ o h n s e n ,h e r u n s t h hee o f S ep tem b er 111 1,
Afghanistan, Algeria, Aus-
w e b s i t e w w w .i . i s l a m a n d i n s u rrg
g e n c y in y e m.e n 2001. The Se c ur it
ec ity
y
tria, Canada, China, Ethiopia,
blogspot.com . Council’s role has
France, Germany, India,
been controversial
controversial,,
Iraq, Italy, Mauritania, Niger,
both because
Pakistan, the Philippines,
counterterrorism is
Somalia, Switzerland, Tunisia,
mor
more e
Turkey, the United
traditionally the
States, the United Kingdom and
preserve of the GeneraGenerall
Yemen. Israel suffered
an attack from an unlisted group
5 For a comprehensive
calling itself Al-Qa`ida
in the Levant.
3 These countries include: presentation of UN action against
Denmark, Egypt, Libya, Mo- terrorism, see
rocco, Nigeria, the Russian www.un.org/terrorism.
Federation, Saudi Arabia, 6 To view the UN Treaty
Spain, Sudan and the United Collection on terrorism, see
Arab Emirates. www.untreaty.un.org/English/T
4 This includes al-Qa`ida’s coreerrorism.asp.
leadership, its estab- 7 This is drawn from the United
lished regional afiliates, and the Nations Global Counter-
propagation of its ideas Terrorism Strategy, which was
to homegrown or self-recruited adopted on September 8,
cells. 2006. For the entire document,
19 see www.un.org/terror-
ism/strategy-counter-
terrorism.shtml.
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is s U E 4
21
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is s U E 4
22
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is s U E 4
23
APRIL 200 9 . V o L 2 . Is
I s sU
sUE 4
Taliba n
militants destroyed 12
trucks loade
loaded
d
24