Jim Duncan's Market Report

market update
CHARLOTTESVILLE
22911

Current prices for condominiums, townhomes, TICs on the market

Trends in pricing
Current levels of supply and demand
Value metrics

Report for the week of

Sunday February 21, 2010

Presented by Jim Duncan

434-242-7140
RealCentralVA.com/Nest Realty Group
www.RealCentralVA.com - jim@realcentralva.com

Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved

www.altosresearch.com
 Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

City Overview CHARLOTTESVILLE

Real-Time Market Profile Trend THIS WEEK
Median List Price $ 205,000 The median condominium price in
Average List Price $ 283,497 CHARLOTTESVILLE this week is
Least Expensive Listing $ 74,900 $205,000. The 251 condos have been
Most Expensive Listing $ 1,500,000 on the market for an average of 198
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 165 days.
Average Days on Market 198
Total Inventory 251
Absorbed This Week 133
Percent of Properties with Price Reductions 36 %
Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 35 %
Percent Flip (price increased) 22 %
Median Size (sq ft) 1,360 Inventory has been lightening lately
Median Number of Bedrooms 2.7
and the Market Action Index has been
Median Number of Bathrooms 2.1
trending up. Though days-on-market is
Median Age 17
Altos Research Value Statistics increasing, these are mildly positive
Market Action Index Cool. Buyer's Market 27 indications for the market.
Altos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supply
relative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favor
the seller. See the section below for full details.

Trend Key
Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend
*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons. QUARTILES
Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which properties
sold. To get a tightly targeted understanding
of properties on the market, we break
each locale into quartiles. Each quartile
is 25% of the condos listed.

Characteristics per Quartile

Med. Ab- Avg.
Quartile Median Price Med. Sqft Bed Bath Age Inven. New sorbed DoM

1 $ 389,000 2,120 3.0 3.0 3 62 6 35 178 Most expensive 25% of condos

2 $ 239,510 1,400 3.0 3.0 6 63 6 34 161 Upper-middle 25% of condos

3 $ 176,000 1,120 2.0 2.0 38 63 1 37 218 Lower-middle 25% of condos

4 $ 130,000 856 2.0 1.0 41 63 0 26 235 Least expensive 25% of condos

We'll refer to the quartiles in the trend

graphs below.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 2

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

PRICE
Despite this week's down tic, the market
seems to have paused around this
plateau. The Market Action Index is a
good leading indicator for the
durability of this shift.

QUARTILE PRICES
Often, we find insights by watching
pricing trends within the quartile
segments.
Price weakness is evident across the
board. All four quartiles have been in
price decline in recent weeks. Look to
the Market Action Index as a leading
indicator of the bottom of the market.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 3

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

PRICE AND VALUE

Despite recently falling prices, the price
per square foot has stayed reasonably
flat. This implies that there's a portion
of the market being priced at a
premium. You can investigate this
condition in the quartile details.

INVENTORY
Inventory has been falling in recent
weeks. Note that declining inventory
alone does not signal a strengthening
market. Look to the Market Action
Index and Days on Market trends to
gauge whether buyer interest is
changing with the available supply.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 4

 Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

MARKET ACTION INDEX

Property prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be
characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index The condo market in
falls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward
CHARLOTTESVILLE is currently in the
correction.
Buyer's zone (below 30), though not
strongly so. The 90-day Market Action
Index stands this week at 27 so buyers
should expect find reasonable levels of
selection.

Home sales have been exceeding new

inventory for several weeks. While still
a Buyer's market, prices seem to have
responded by moving upward. If the
The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a demand trends continue, expect prices
statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. to keep marching upward, especially
An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market") once we see a Seller's Market.
because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will
typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "Cold
Market") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at
the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES

Three of the four quartiles of the market
are in the Buyer's Market zone with
several months of inventory given the
current rate of demand for homes in the
quartile. Notice that Quartile 2 (the
upper-middle price group) is showing
stronger demand than the others.
Current supply/demand levels identify
Quartile 2 as a Seller's market. Price
conditions should be expected to be
stronger in this price range.
The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my price
range?"

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 5

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)

The properties have been on the
market for an average of 148 days. Half
of the listings have come newly on the
market in the past 112 or so days.

DOM PER QUARTILE

It is not uncommon for the higher
priced homes in an area to take longer
to sell than those in the lower
quartiles.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 6

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

CHARLOTTESVILLE
Neighborhood Detail 22911

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Median List Price $ 349,900 THIS WEEK
Average List Price $ 362,802 The median condominium price in
Least Expensive Listing $ 269,000 CHARLOTTESVILLE 22911 this week
Most Expensive Listing $ 549,000 is $349,900.
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 171
Average Days on Market 178
Total Inventory 21
Absorbed This Week 23
Median Size (sq ft) 1,636 Inventory is tightening and days-on-
Median Number of Bedrooms 2.9
market is falling. The Market Action
Median Number of Bathrooms 2.3
Index shows demand heating up. These
Median Age 11
Altos Research Value Statistics are relatively bullish signs for prices.
Market Action Index Warm Seller's Market 33

PRICE
The market for this zip code continues
its bounce again this week. We're a
long way from the market's high point
so watch the Market Action Index to
predict how long this trend will last.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 7

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

PRICE PER QUARTILE

In the quartile market segments, we see
the upper end of the market in this zip
code showing weakness. While there is
enough demand in the low end
(Quartiles 3 and 4) to keep prices flat,
unless there is a persistent up-shift in
the Market Action Index, the entire
market may resume a down trend soon.

Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES

Med. Ab- Avg.
Quartile Median Price Med. Sqft Bed Bath Age Inven. New sorbed DoM

1 $ 449,500 3,046 3.0 3.0 3 5 1 13 275 Most expensive 25% of condos

2 $ 350,000 2,208 3.0 3.0 13 5 1 5 266 Upper-middle 25% of condos

3 $ 335,000 1,984 4.0 3.0 21 5 1 3 119 Lower-middle 25% of condos

4 $ 297,250 1,521 3.0 3.0 5 6 4 1 74 Least expensive 25% of condos

INVENTORY
Inventory has been falling in recent
weeks. Note that declining inventory
alone does not signal a strengthening
market. Look to the Market Action
Index and Days on Market trends to
gauge whether buyer interest is
changing with the available supply.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 8

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

MARKET ACTION INDEX

The condo market in
CHARLOTTESVILLE 22911 is currently
mildly in the Seller's zone (greater than
30). The MAI stands at 33 which
indicates that demand is reasonably
strong but available supply of new
listings does not get snapped up
immediately.

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES

The lower end of this zip code are in the
Buyer's Market zone with several
months of inventory given the current
levels of demand. The high-end of the
market is showing demand strength in
the Seller's Market zone, while Quartiles
3 and 4 have a Market Action Index
below 30 (Buyer's Market).

DAYS ON MARKET
The properties have been on the market
for an average of 178 days. Half of the
listings have come newly on the market
in the past 119 or so days. Watch the 90-
day DOM trend for signals of a changing
market.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 9

 Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

DAYS ON MARKET
It is not uncommon for the higher
priced properties in an area (Quartiles
1 and 2) to take longer to sell than
those in the lower quartiles.

About Altos Research Corporation

Altos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets across
the country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available
publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition to
the market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to the
best of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estate
decision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other Altos
Research publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with a
licensed real estate agent or broker.

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Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 10