Development of a short-term irradiance forecasting system

for solar applications

Miguel Gomes Lopes

Thesis to obtain the Master of Science Degree in

Physics Engineering
Supervisor:

Professor Carlos Augusto Santos Silva

Co-Supervisor:

Professor Mrio Antnio da Silva Neves Ramalho

June 12, 2014

Contents
1 Introduction

1.1 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.2 Theoretical Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.2.1 Solar Radiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.2.2 Solar Forecasting

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.3 State-of-the-art . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.3.1 Numerical weather prediction methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.3.2 Satellite based methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.3.3 Ground based imaging methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bibliography

14

ii

Chapter 1

Introduction
1.1

Motivation

Driven by a drop in price and an increase in efficiency, photovoltaic (PV) energy generation is growing
rapidly. According to [1], at least 38.4GW of PV systems were installed globally in 2013, up from 30GW
in 2012. The global annual market is expected to reach 156GW in 2018. PV now covers 3% of the
electricity demand and 6% of the peak electricity demand in Europe. In Portugal, the average annual
growth rate has been more than 30% for 6 years in a row and is, by far, the renewable source with the
biggest annual growth since 2005 [2].
As the share of PV in the electricity mix increases, grid and market integration challenges are becoming more and more important for the future development of PV. The two main challenges to high
penetration rates of PV systems are variability and uncertainty, i.e., the fact that PV output exhibits variability at all timescales (from seconds to years) and the fact that this variability itself is difficult to predict
[3].
Utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs) require accurate forecasts over different temporal
ranges in order to realize increased levels of operational PV penetration while maintaining relatively low
cost and high reliability of the grid [4].
Of particular interest to the energy industry are sudden and widespread changes in irradiance,
termed ramp events, typically caused by large clouds or widespread changes in cloud cover [5]. Ramp
events require ancillary services to ramp up or down to meet the change in electrical supply and maintain power quality. Reduction in the uncertainty of solar generation through accurate short-term solar
forecasting reduces greatly solar integration costs.
To date, short-term accurate solar forecasts have been evasive and the problem proven to be complex due to the impact of weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance; most notably local cloud
fields [6].
This work aims to develop a short-term irradiance forecasting system based on sky imaging ground
based techniques. We intend to address intra-hour and sub-kilometer resolutions, an important component of the integration of variable renewable resources into the electric grid.

1.2

Theoretical Background

This chapter presents necessary background information. In Section 1.2.1, the features of sunlight are
introduced. In Section 1.2.2, we expose introductory concepts to solar forecasting.

1.2.1

Solar Radiation

Sunlight is emitted from the sun in all directions. When it reaches the upper atmosphere, its strength
has decreased to 1367 W/m2 , which is defined as the solar constant [7].

Irradiance
The incoming radiation may be manifold scattered within the atmosphere, reaching the surface from any
direction. Therefore, we distinguish between direct radiation and diffuse radiation (Figure 1.1). The sum
of both is called global radiation. Global radiation incident on an horizontal surface is named global
horizontal irradiance (GHI). Accordingly defined is the direct horizontal irradiance (DHI). Finally, direct
normal irradiance (DNI) is direct radiation incident on a surface normal to the direction of the Sun [8].
A high DNI is indicative of a very clear day, whereas high DHI relative to DNI indicates an overcast day. Fluctuations in the solar resource are specially remarkable in the case of DNI, which is the
main irradiance component for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and Concentrated Photovoltaics (CPV)
plants. Cloudiness is the most important meteorological factor determining the amount of irradiance,
and specially DNI, reaching the Earths surface.

Figure 1.1: Illustration of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI). TOA is
top of atmosphere.

Solar position
The apparent position of the sun from any point on earth is defined by two angles. The angle of the
suns position in the sky with respect to the earths horizontal is known as the solar altitude . The
position of the sun with respect to true south is referred to as the solar azimuth . The Earths rotation
leads to an apparent daily motion of the Sun at a constant angular velocity of 15o per hour. Figure 1.2
illustrates typical altitude and azimuth positions of the sun at the equinox and solstice days. When the
suns position is true south, the azimuth angle is zero and the altitude angle is a maximum at a time
referred to as solar noon [9].

Figure 1.2: Typical altitude and azimuth positions.

According to [10], the azimuth and altitude of the sun can be calculated as:
cos = sin sin + cos cos cos h

(1.1)

sin = cos h cos cos + sin sin ,

(1.2)

where h is the solar angle in the local time, is the current declination of the sun and is the local
latitude.

Scattering by the atmosphere

The particles constituting the atmosphere can be classified as gases, aerosols and cloud particles [11].
Apart from water vapor, which is highly variable in space and time, the concentrations of the atmospheric
gases are nearly constant [12]. Gases have sizes of 104 m [13], meaning that their scattering
3

behavior can be described within Rayleigh theory, i.e., scattering by gases has a symmetric phase
function and is highly wavelength dependent (the scattering cross section is proportional to 4 ) [14].
Therefore, blue light is scattered more than red light, which is why the sky is blue and the Sun is red.
Clouds are divided firstly into water and ice clouds [11]. The distribution of both highly depends on
time and location. Clouds nearly do not absorb in the solar region of the electromagnetic spectrum but
multiple scattering within clouds enlarges the photon path and thereby the probability of absorption by
gases. This way clouds may lead to higher absorption.
The scattering properties of water clouds are mainly influenced by the effective size of the cloud
droplets and can be described by Mie theory, which is independent of the wavelength. Thats why
clouds are white [11].
The scattering behavior of ice clouds mainly depends on size and shape of the ice crystals. The ice
crystals reach sizes of an order of magnitude larger than the water droplets in water clouds. Ice clouds
are more efficient scatterers than water clouds [11].
Figure 1.3 shows the impact of a water cloud on direct, diffuse and global horizontal irradiances at
the surface for a solar zenith angle 0 = 30o in a mid-latitude summer atmosphere [15]. The plot on the
right hand side shows the dependency on the cloud optical depth . The global and the direct irradiance
decrease exponentially with increasing . The direct irradiance becomes smaller faster than the global
irradiance and vanishes for 5.

Figure 1.3: Dependency of global, diffuse and direct horizontal irradiances on clouds. Left: dependency
on the total cloud cover. Right: Dependency on cloud optical depth. [15]

On the left hand side of the figure global and direct irradiances are plotted against the total cloud
cover fraction ct for a cloud with optical depth = 1. The global and direct irradiance decrease linearly
with ct . As the optical depth influences the direct irradiance much more than the global irradiance, the
direct irradiance decreases more rapidly than the global irradiance with increasing ct .
Finally, aerosols are commonly divided into subclasses by their size which ranges between 0.1 and
1m, with variable concentrations in space and time. The wavelength dependence of their scattering
behavior is weak [11].
Although the dependency of surface irradiance on cloud and aerosol optical depth is similar, it is
clouds that modify irradiances most because actual cloud optical depths are larger than actual aerosol
optical depths [13].
4

1.2.2

Solar Forecasting

Solar forecasting can be implemented for a variety of specific temporal and spatial windows. The amount
of time that the forecast looks ahead is called the forecast horizon. The forecast resolution (both temporal
and spatial) is the window size at the forecast horizon [16].
The inputs and forecasting methodology might change significantly under different spatial and temporal scales as the relative importance of different environmental dynamics changes with the forecasting
horizons and resolutions. For example, long term forecasts depend on the orientation of the earths axis
and the macro-weather dynamics associated with the changing seasons. Accurate long-term forecasting methods typically require data-mining and analysis of past records [17]. Medium-term forecasts
that look weeks ahead may often use satellite images to consider large scale weather patterns [18].
Accurate forecasts with short time horizons require local information with a high resolution. Irradiance
instruments installed at the forecast site can be used to observe local patterns associated with changes
in solar variability [19].
Many solar irradiance forecasting models require the knowledge of clear sky conditions and, when
no other measurement exists, clear sky models are used. These are typically developed using one
of several Radiative Transfer Models (RTMs) and require local meteorological inputs such as ozone
content, water vapor content and turbidity in combination with solar geometry [20].
Persistence models are some of the most simple forecasts to implement and are often used as a
baseline for the performance evaluation of other forecast engines [22]. As the name implies, these
models are defined as having the clear sky or clearness conditions persist for the next time step [21].
Persistence forecasting is particularly accurate on characteristically clear days, where there is low solar
variability, however, large forecasting errors occur during rapid changes in irradiance which result from
the passing of opaque clouds. Furthermore, the persistence model displays an obvious time delay due
to the implied persistence of the clear sky conditions. As the forecast horizon gets shorter, persistence
forecasting typically becomes more accurate.

Evaluation of solar forecasting

Whatever the intended use of forecasts, standardizing performance measures or metrics helps facilitate
forecast evaluations and benchmarking. Common metrics have been proposed in [23], including mean
bias error (MBE, or bias), mean square error (MSE) and root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute
error (MAE) and standard deviation (SDE). These are defined as follows:
v
u
N
u1 X
e2
RM SE = M SE = t
N i=1 i
v
u
N
u 1 X
SDE = t
(ei ei )2
N 1 i=1

(1.3)

(1.4)
(1.5)

N
1 X
|ei |
N i=1

(1.6)

N
1 X
ei
N i=1

(1.7)

ei = Ii,f orecast Ii,observed ,

(1.8)

M AE =

M BE =

where Ii,f orecast and Ii,observed are the ith forecast and observed irradiance and ei is the ith error.
The bias or MBE is the average forecast error, and encapsulates the systematic tendency of a forecast model to under or over-forecast. MAE gives the average magnitude of forecast errors, while RMSE
(and MSE) give more weight to the largest errors. In [24], Madsen et al. argue that large errors are
disproportionately costly, so that RMSE better reflects the costs of forecast errors to system operators
than the MAE.
However, none of these measures actually quantify the amount of variability present in the irradiance
data itself.
As a solution to these obstacles, Marquez and Coimbra [25] presented a novel approach for the
evaluation of the quality (s) of forecast models based on the comparison of solar resource variability (V )
and the forecast uncertainty (U ):
v
u
2
N 
u1 X
Ii,observed
Ii1,observed
V =t

N i=1
Ii,clr
Ii1,clr
v
u
2
N 
u1 X
ei
U =t
N i=1 Iclr,i
s=

U
V U
=1
V
V

(1.9)

(1.10)
(1.11)

This relationship between variability and uncertainty provides a consistent metric that is independent
of the time horizon. However, the metric requires a clear sky model (Iclr ) for normalization purposes.
The authors in [25] point out that, when s = 1, the forecast performs perfectly due to the vanishing
uncertainty, however, when s = 0, the forecast is dominated by solar variability. Its also worth mentioning
that the persistence model, by definition, should have a performance metric value of s = 0. As a result, if
a developed forecast model produces a performance metric for which s < 0, the model performs worse
than a persistence forecast. This means that a typical forecast model should be characterized with
values ranging from 0 to 1, with values closer to 1 indicating a higher quality forecast [25].

1.3

State-of-the-art

Different solar irradiance forecast methodologies have been proposed for various time horizons. Currently, physically based forecasting is primarily conducting using numerical weather prediction (NWP)
and satellite cloud observations. For shorter time and spatial resolutions, ground based sky imagers are
starting to appear as the best current method.

1.3.1

Numerical weather prediction methods

From 6h up to several days ahead, solar irradiance forecasts rely on Numerical Weather Prediction
(NWP) models [26, 16, 17, 27], which describe solar radiation as it propagates through the atmosphere.
At the current stage in their development, NWPs are unable to predict the precise position and extent of
cloud fields. Their relatively coarse spatial resolution (typically on the order of 1 - 20km) renders NWP
models unable to resolve the micro-scale physics that are associated with cloud formation. As a result,
cloud prediction inaccuracy is among the largest sources of error in a NWP based solar forecast [16].
Nonetheless, NWP provide a relatively long time horizon (15 to 240 hours) and information about
the propagation of large scale weather patters. It has been shown that NWPs provide more accurate
forecasts than satellite based methods for time horizons exceeding 4 hours [17]. Accordingly, NWPs
provide the most attractive option for medium to long term atmospheric forecasting.

1.3.2

Satellite based methods

Satellite imagery is the best forecasting technique in the 1-4h forecast range [16].
Physical satellite models for solar irradiance forecasting are based on the interactions between solar
radiation and participating atmospheric components and aerosols. Similar to a number of the clear sky
models, the physical interactions are typically modeled by way of radiative transfer models. Atmospheric
conditions are accounted for through the measurement of local meteorological data. This eliminates
the need for solar irradiance data at the surface, however, because these models need to convert digital counts from satellite based radiometers into a corresponding flux densities, accurate and frequent
calibration of the instrument is required [18].
The spatial resolution of geostationary satellite images is 1 km (GOES) or larger [28, 16, 25] which
is much less than ground based sky images. Hence, with the exception of large convective clouds, most
clouds cannot be detected and located directly; one can only conclude that clouds have to be located
somewhere within the pixel. In addition, the shortest time horizon reported was 30 min [29].
The lack of high spatial and temporal resolution in the satellite image data reduces the performance of
the satellite based approach relative to the sky imager method for very short look ahead times. However,
the much larger area of coverage means that the motion of the cloud field can be projected forward over
longer time periods.
7

Classical satellite methods only use the visible channels (such as they only work in day time), which
makes morning forecasts less accurate due to a lack of time history. To obtain accurate morning forecasts, it is important to integrate infra-red channels (which work day and night) into the satellite cloud
motion forecasts [16].

1.3.3

Ground based imaging methods

To achieve high temporal and spatial resolution for intra-hour forecasts, NWP and satellite forecasts are
currently inadequate [19]. Ground observations using a sky imager (SI) present an opportunity to fill this
forecasting gap and deliver a sub-kilometer view of cloud shadows over a central PV power plant or an
urban distribution feeder. This method can be used to forecast from real time (nowcast) up to 10 to 30
minutes ahead by applying image processing and cloud tracking techniques to sky photographs. Typical
components of a SI are a charge coupled device (CCD) camera, a fish-eye lens or a spherical mirror,
an environmental housing, and possibly a solar occultor depending on the choice of CCD sensor and
application.
Solar forecasting based on SI analysis generally consists of four components: acquisition of a sky
image in the vicinity of the forecast site; analysis of sky image data to identify clouds; estimation of cloud
motion vectors using successive images; use of cloud location and motion vector data for short term
deterministic or probabilistic cloud cover, irradiance, and power forecasting.
Cloud detection using SIs is generally based on a thresholding technique that utilizes the cameras
red-green-blue (RGB) channel magnitudes to determine the red-blue ratio (RBR) (Shields algorithm
[30]). Increased molecular (Rayleigh) scattering of shorter wavelengths causes the clear sky to be blue
and the signal measured in the blue channel to be larger. Since clouds scatter the visible wavelengths
more evenly, the red signal is similar to the blue signal. The Shields algorithm uses fixed ratio thresholds
to identify opaque clouds; thin clouds are detected through a comparison with a clear sky background
RBR library as a function of solar angle, look angle and site location.
However, different methods have been applied. Souza-Echer et al. [31] used saturation in the hue,
saturation and luminance (HSL) colorspace with fixed thresholds for cloud detection. Cazorla et al.
[32] classified clouds based on neural networks. Finally, Li et al. [33] developed a hybrid thresholding
technique (HYTA) that is based on both fixed and adaptive thresholding techniques for cloud detection.
In 2012, Ghonima et. al [34] performed a relevant method that distinguished between not only thin and
thick clouds, but also aerosols, adding a haze correction factor to the classification model to account for
variations in the level of aerosol.
One of the most relevant recent studies of solar forecasting using SI is [19], where irradiance nowcasting was proposed to achieve a high temporal and spatial resolution through the analysis of sky cover
images. The sky images were taken by a SI every 30 seconds and were used to predict cloud movement.
Their cloud detection technique is based on the concept of RBR, previously explained. Instead of using
just a single RBR threshold for the entire image, a clear sky library (CSL based on [35]) as a function
of zenith and sun-pixel-angle was calculated from images on a cloud-free day. A clear sky background
8

image is then generated for each sky image based on the current solar zenith angle. They also note that
within the circumsolar region, thick dark clouds cannot be identified since they have a lower RBR than
the CSL threshold. Therefore, they defined a sunshine parameter (SP, defined by [5]) in addition to the
CSL to improve cloud decision in the circumsolar region. By adding the clouds detected using the CSL
to the clouds detected using SP, the overall cloud decision image is obtained. Once a cloud decision
image has been generated, the cloud fraction is computed as the number of cloudy pixels divided by the
total number of sky pixels with the solid angle correction described by [36]. The cloud decision image
is transformed to sky coordinates to geolocate clouds for cloud shadow mapping and forecasting using
a geometric transformation that assumes constant CBH throughout the image. To estimate irradiance
(GHI), they use the ineichen clear sky model [37]. Cloud velocity and direction of motion is determined
through the cross-correlation method (CCM) applied to two consecutive sky images [38]. The CCM is
performed on the red channel image which has a higher contrast between clear sky and cloud than
the blue and green channels. This method can correctly predict 70% of cloud conditions within 2 km
for the current time. However, due to the high cloud cover variability, extending the forecasting horizon
will significantly decrease the forecast accuracy. Kleissls study suggests that SI images are useful for
prediction of GHI on time horizons up to 15-20 minutes.
Marquez and Coimbra [39] also made use of a SI for intra-hour forecasts, however, their study focused on DNI forecasting rather than GHI. Images of the sky were taken at 1 min intervals at the University of California Merceds solar observatory station. First, suitable masks were created for the images
so that segments such as the protective shadow band and some nearby object appearing on the horizon
could be discarded. Next, they transformed the images onto a rectangular grid so that clouds and velocity fields would be more accurately represented. To obtain the cloud velocity fields, they used the MPIV
computer software developed by Mori and Chang [40]. As in many other studies, they used the RBR to
determine cloud pixels. However, on this study, a modified algorithm was used, referred to as the MCE
(Minimum Cross Entropy) and developed by Li et al [33], which determines the cloud pixels by selecting
the threshold as the minimizer of the cross-entropy between the normalized RBR image and the segmented binary image that depends on the threshold. This algorithm is meant to be applied to images
with bimodal red/blue histograms. In order to forecast solar irradiance, they first constructed a set of grid
elements originating from the suns position and oriented in column-wise fashion in the reverse direction
of the cloud flow field. The direction was obtained from the representative velocity vectors determined
previously. In this work, up to 6 grid elements were used. For each grid element, they computed the
cloud fractions in the area enclosed by the grids boundaries. The orientation of the grid elements allows
for making solar forecast predictions at several time-horizons. In agreement with other works, Coimbra
and Marquez concluded that SIs show promise for forecasting horizons up to 15 minutes with the lowest
error associated with time horizons of 5-6 minutes.
Another work of Marquez et al. [41] uses cloud indices obtained from a SI built-in cloud classification algorithms, and cloud indices derived from Infrared Radiometric (IR) measurements to report
improved results for 1h forecasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) using ANNs for time series
predictions. Another study [42] employed a SI to extract cloud features using a Radial Basis Function
9

Neural Network (RBFNN) pixel classifier to include in an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) forecast model
for 160min ahead horizons. Results from this study were mixed, showing only marginal improvements
with reference to a model which uses only a persistence model.
Ferreira et al. [43] created their own portable sky imager and created ANN models optimized via a
multi-objective GA to predict GHI, cloudiness and temperature for forecasting horizons ranging from 5
min out to 4 h.
On the study in [44], a novel methodology called sector method, for intrahour DNI forecasting up to 20
min ahead, with a temporal resolution of 1 min was presented. Their improvements in relation to previous
works are a new cloud tracking algorithm that can increase PIV accuracy and reduce computational
effort.
It should be noted that while these sky imaging-based methodologies make use of local meteorological information enabling intra-hour forecasts, their time horizon is restricted to approximately 30 min due
to residence time of clouds over the field of view, which means that the actual look ahead time for which
this method has significant skill will depend, among other things, upon the cloud velocity and the height
of the clouds. In addition to an upper bound on the time horizon of the SI, a lower bound is also imposed.
The lower bound is a result of circumsolar glare and limitations introduced by the shadow band, which
renders time horizons shorter than 2 min inaccessible. Furthermore, there isnt any approach at present
that accounts for significant changes in a cloud geometry over time.
Nonetheless, sky imaging-based forecasts are one of the most relevant forecasting methods as a
result of their unique temporal and spatial resolution.

Table 1.1: Characteristics of solar forecasting techniques.

10

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