Volume 6, Issue 1

August 4 , 2015

THE FEDERAL ELECTION IN

QUEBEC: A PRIMER
For more information about any of the issues discussed below please contact Adam Daifallah, at (514) 316-7089
or at adaifallah@hatleystrategies.com.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Three-way races in Quebec will play critical role in who forms the government
Quebec now has 78 seats up for grabs, up from 75 in 2011
Current standings: NDP holds 54, Liberals 7 and Conservative 5
Liberals must break NDP grip on Quebec to have any chance at power
Tories need gains in Quebec to counter losses in Maritimes
Bloc Qubcois will need to make a show of force if they want to stay relevant

ANALYSIS
What happens in Quebec in the federal election on October 19 will have a decisive impact on who sits in the prime
ministers chair. The Quebec electorate is known for its volatility at the ballot box and the current dynamic is
setting up for a high number of local three-way races, further increasing unpredictability. While polls during the
2011 federal campaign suggested the separatist Bloc Qubcois would take the majority of seats, the party was
decimated to only four seats, losing 43 others they previously held. Those votes went straight to the NDP, who
have hung on to that support in the four years since.
While an 11-week campaign can change anything, pollster ric Grenier currently predicts that the NDP could win 52
seats in Quebec (7 fewer than 2011), the Liberals could win 14 (+7), the Conservatives could win 10 (+5), and the

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August 4 , 2015

Bloc Qubcois could win 2 (-2). Expect these numbers to swing in the next several weeks as the party leaders
debate, tour the province and commit various gaffes.
Several key topics which have become prominent among the Quebec electorate recently: the struggling economy,
national security, homegrown Islamic extremism, and the environment (with pipelines being a particularly
controversial topic).
The NDP will be on the defensive in Quebec in an effort to protect their current standing the question is whether
not they will be able to withstand the attacks. While the Liberal Party will be focused on gaining seats on the island
of Montreal, the Conservatives will be trying to sweep the rural regions where the NDP is well represented and
the area around Quebec City, where Tory support is currently strongest. Many of the most interesting ridings to
watch will be due to the Conservative offensive into this territory. Early analysis suggests that the Bloc Qubcois
will not have a large impact on the election, aside from a few ridings in Eastern Quebec which they could take back
from the NDP. Of course, this is subject to change as the campaign progresses.

KEY QUEBEC RIDINGS TO WATCH

Ahuntsic-Cartierville
This is one of the most watched ridings in Montreal, primarily due to the Liberal nomination process
currently underway. Mlanie Joly, a former Montreal mayoral candidate, is facing off with five other
candidates. Ms. Joly is a friend of Liberal leader Justin Trudeau. The Liberal winner will face incumbent
Maria Mourani, who famously defected from the Bloc Qubcois and sat as an independent MP until this
election, where she will run with the NDP. She is popular among the constituencys large population of
Middle Eastern immigrants. It is also expected that the Bloc Qubcois will mount an aggressive campaign
to unseat Ms. Mourani.
Drummond
The region of Drummondville (east of Montreal) was not on anyones radars as a potentially competitive
seat until very recently. The NDP won it in 2011 by a hefty 14,000 votes. But Pascale Dry, a well-known
journalist from the French television station TVA who previously lost the Conservative nomination in
Mount Royal, is betting that she can win Drummond. The NDPs Franois Choquette still holds a solid lead
over Ms. Dry, but the Tories are slowly gaining traction.
Lac-Saint-Louis
This riding in the West Island of Montreal has been Liberal since its creation in 1997. There has been
tension between the current MP, Francis Scarpaleggia, and the Liberal leaders team, though his local
base is still strong. The Conservatives have brought in the National Banks Treasurer, ric Girard, as a
candidate in the hopes of taking this seat.

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LaurierSainte-Marie
Located in the eastern part of downtown Montreal, this riding was home to Bloc Qubcois leader Gilles
Duceppe from 1993 to 2011, when he lost the election to the NDP candidate Hlne Laverdire. Mr.
Duceppe quit politics afterward, but recently retook the helm of the separatist party. Mr. Duceppe is
hoping to regain his throne from Ms. Laverdire, but he faces a difficult battle ahead against the popular
incumbent. His partys dire financial status make his goal that much harder.
Louis-Saint-Laurent
This riding outside Quebec City had been held previously by the Conservatives but turned NDP orange in
2011. The Tories have recruited Grard Deltell, a well-known provincial politician, to vie for this seat. It is
expected that Mr. Deltell will win his seat and play an active role in the in the campaign across Quebec.
MganticL'rable
This riding, located in the region south of Quebec City, has been held by Conservative Minister Christian
Paradis since 2006. However, the Minister for International Development and Minister for La
Francophonie announced that he will not run again. The former mayor of Thetford Mines, Luc Berthold,
will represent the Tories. Mr. Paradis won his last election by over 10,000 votes. How well the
Conservative Party performs in this riding will be a good barometer for their success in the rest of the
province.
Mount Royal
Located in the heart of Anglophone Montreal, this ethnically-mixed riding with a strong Jewish
component has been painted Liberal red since 1940, including by former Prime Minister Pierre Elliot
Trudeau. However, it has been a targeted riding for the Conservative Party since 2011. Long-time Liberal
MP Irwin Cotler has retired, increasing the likelihood that the Tories could capture this seat. Tory
candidate Robert Libman is well known in the riding as a former mayor of Cte-Saint-Luc and member of
the Quebec National Assembly who championed the rights of Anglophones in the late 80s and early 90s.
He is facing Anthony Housefather, the sitting mayor of Cte-Saint-Luc. This stands to be a tight race, and
the Conservatives seem ready to pour significant resources into the riding in order to gain a footing in
Montreal. Prime Minister Harper held his first rally of the campaign here.
PierrefondsDollard
This seat in north-west Montreal is currently held by the NDP, but the Liberals have a good chance to take
it back (they held it from 1993 to 2011). The Liberal candidate, Frank Baylis, is a well-known entrepreneur
and he is also very much involved in the West Island community. The Tories and NDP are close behind.
This riding could lead to a few surprises come Election Day.
Pontiac
A riding located in western Quebec, Pontiac was captured in 2011 by the NDP from Conservative cabinet
minister Lawrence Cannon. The Conservatives want this seat back and have recruited Benjamin

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Woodman, a member of the Canadian Armed Forces Reserves who has previously worked on Parliament
Hill.
RichmondArthabaska
This riding in the Centre-du Qubec region between Montreal and Quebec City is another important
target for the Conservative Party. They believe their chances of winning this seat, currently held by a Bloc
Qubcois defector turned independent, are increased by the fact that the provincial Coalition Avenir
Qubec party has won seats in this region in the past two Quebec elections. The Tories have recruited
popular Victoriaville mayor Alain Rayes and this seat is one of the Tories best hopes.
Saint-HyacintheBagot
The Saint-Hyacinthe region east of Montreal used to be a bastion of Quebecs separatist movement, but
support has waned over the last few years. In the 2014 provincial election, the Coalition Avenir Qubec
swept the area from the separatist Parti Qubcois. The Conservative Party is hoping to translate this on
the federal stage with star candidate Rjean Lveill, a former journalist at the French television station
TVA. However, they face an uphill battle against a popular NDP, and the Bloc Qubcois who are polling in
second place.
Ville-MarieLe Sud-Ouestle-des-Surs
This Montreal riding is one of Quebecs three new ridings for the 2015 election. The Conservatives,
Liberals, NDP, and the Green Party have all placed well-known candidates in the riding. The Tories have
nominated Steve Shanahan, a Montreal city councillor. The Liberals have Marc Miller, a corporate lawyer
close to Trudeau. The New Democrats are also running a lawyer named Allison Turner. The Green Party
will be represented by Daniel Green, a well-known environmental activist in Quebec.

For any additional questions please contact: Adam Daifallah, Partner

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