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Primary Energy Consumption: Oil
These notes are intended to accompany the slide presentation entitled ‘Primary Energy Consumption:
Oil’ available from The Gaia Project at www.thegaiaproject.ca.
For more information, please contact brian.mccain@thegaiaproject.ca
OECD refers to the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development. OECD countries are
generally those countries that are considered to be developed (such as Canada, US, Europe, Australia,
Japan), while non‐OECD countries are developing nations (such as China, India, all of Africa).
Slide Number Description
1 Title
These slides show graphs of a variety of indicators related to primary energy both
regionally and globally.
Primary energy refers to energy that can be found naturally and has not been subject
to any sort of man‐made conversion process. Therefore, it includes energy sources
such as coal, wind and hydro, but not electricity since this is produced from primary
energy sources.
There are a large number of graphs contained in this package, and it is not essential to
understand each one in detail. Instead, when viewed together, they provide an overall
indication of where we were and where we are now in terms of energy consumption.
2 Oil
Crude oil is a liquid fuel formed due to compressed organic material in the same way
that coal is. However, coal is primarily composed of land based organic material, while
oil tends to be composed of sea base organic material (such as algae and plankton)
While oil is still composed primarily of carbon which combusts to release energy and
CO2, it also contains a fair amount of hydrogen which combusts to release energy and
water. While oil still releases a large amount of CO2 per unit of energy, it is a little
cleaner burning that coal due to the fact that some of the energy comes from
hydrogen.
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Slide Number Description
3 Annual Global Oil Consumption
Again over the past 4 years, we see a massive increase in the amount of oil we
consume per year. In fact today, we use roughly 3 times the amount of oil that we
used in 1965 – a total of roughly 30 billion barrels a year, or about 5 barrels per
person.
Keep in mind that the majority of the world’s population doesn’t use their ‘5 barrels’
and that we are actually using a lot more than that per person in North America to
skew the results.
You’ll notice a dip towards the late 1970’s. This can be explained easily once you see
the price of oil graph.
4 Annual Global Oil Consumption – OECD versus Non‐OECD
Like coal, there has been a massive increase in the amount of oil used in developing
countries.
Unlike coal, there has also been a large increase in developed countries such as our
own.
5 Annual Regional Oil Consumption
The growth of oil consumption in the OECD countries is certainly not uniform, as we
can see from the disparity of growth between North American and Europe. Europe
has remained relatively steady in their oil consumption over recent years, while North
America has not.
6 Oil Price
Once again, we can see that in recent years, the price of oil has skyrocketed above its
previous levels.
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Slide Number Description
7 Oil Price – Corrected for inflation
Once we correct for inflation, we can see that the high prices we are currently
experiencing are not unfamiliar.
In the later 1970’s there was a global energy crisis, largely fuelled by limited oil supply
from the Middle East that prompted the price of oil to skyrocket, and energy
efficiency plans and sustainable energy policies to be put in place all over the world.
This explains the corresponding drop in oil consumption that we saw in the earlier
graph.
Unfortunately, once supply issues eased, and the price fell, everyone forgot about
energy, and resumed their ever increasing energy consumption.
8 Oil Consumption versus New Discoveries
Oil, like coal and natural gas, is a finite resource. There is only so much of it on Earth,
and we will eventually run out. Historically, we’ve been discovering more oil reserves
than we have produced each year, leading to ever growing reserves, but this can’t go
on forever.
For example, in 2008, we didn’t discover as much oil as we consumed, meaning that
global reserves fell.
There is also much speculation that these discoveries are vastly overstated, especially
by countries in OPEC. For example, in the late 1980’s, Saudi Arabia doubled the size of
the reserves it claimed it had without finding a single new oil field. Iraq claimed for a
period of almost 10 years to have reserves that didn’t change, regardless of how
much oil they produced. These sort of inaccuracies are hard to verify, as countries find
these stated oil reserves useful tools to exert political influence and obtain loans from
the IMF using oil as collateral.
Also worth noting is that a lot of these new discoveries are actually non‐traditional
forms of oil, such as the Oil Sands. We have known about them for decades, but it was
just too expensive and energy intensive to remove. As traditional oil wells run dry, we
have started to reconsider whether the Oil Sands are economically recoverable.
Regardless, the rate of new discoveries has been decreasing over the past few
decades, while consumption has been increasing. At some point, these lines will cross.
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Slide Number Description
9 Oil Reserve / Consumption Ratio
This graph shows the ratio of total reserves remaining divided by the current rate of
consumption, and is a very crude estimate of the number of years of oil remaining.
The problem is that to use it as such requires that consumption stay constant (it
doesn’t), no new reserves be discovered (they are), and that current reserve
estimates be accurate (they aren’t).
Despite those facts, the graph does show that R /C Ratio has flattened out, and has
even begun to decline.
10 Oil Production versus Consumption
This graph shows oil consumption and production. Logically, they appear to follow
each other, as we can’t overproduce oil and store massive quantities of it above
ground for long.
Recent massive price increases in oil have all occurred when production was still on
the rise. However, given the information from the previous slides, there will be a time
when production begins to decrease. Consumption will obviously have to follow suit;
but with a new developing world that is now hungry for oil, this decrease in
consumption is likely to result in unheard of price changes, and increased conflict for
oil.
This concept is known as Peak Oil – defined as the point in time at which maximum
extraction is reached, and is followed by terminal decline. While many ‘doomsayers’
have been predicting it for a while, many experts believe that this will happen within
the next five years, and that society is completely unprepared for the shock that will
occur.
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