Earth system science

Earth system science is the study of how scientific data stemming from various fields of
research, such as the atmosphere, oceans, land ice and others, fit together to form the
current picture of our changing climate.
Climate scientists separate factors that affect climate change into three categories:
forcings, feedbacks, and tipping points.
Forcings: The initial drivers of climate.
1.

Solar Irradiance. Solar radiation is the source of heat for planet Earth.
Scientists also use evidence from proxy measurements, such as sunspot counts
going back centuries and ancient tree rings, to measure the amount of sun that
reaches Earths surface. The sun has an 11-year sun spot cycle, which causes
about 0.1% of the variation in the suns output. 1 The solar cycle is incorporated into

climate models.
2.
Greenhouse gas emissions. Since the industrial revolution, concentrations of
greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide
(N2O) have risen in the atmosphere. Burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas
has increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from 280
parts per million to 393 parts per million.2 These greenhouse gases absorb and
then re-radiate heat in Earths atmosphere, which causes increased warming.
3.
Aerosols, dust, smoke, and soot. Very small airborne particles come from
both human and natural sources and have various effects on climate. Sulfate
aerosols, which result from burning coal, biomass, and volcanic eruptions, tend to

cool the Earth. Other kinds of particles such as black carbon have a warming
effect.3 The global distribution of aerosols is being tracked from the ground and
from satellites.
Climate feedbacks: processes that can either amplify or diminish the effects of climate
forcings. A feedback that increases an initial warming is called a "positive feedback." A
feedback that reduces an initial warming is a "negative feedback."
1.
Clouds. Clouds have an enormous impact on Earth's climate, reflecting about
one third of the total amount of sunlight that hits the Earth's atmosphere back into
space. Even small changes in cloud amount, location and type could have large
consequences. A warmer climate could cause more water to be held in the
atmosphere leading to an increase in cloudiness and altering the amount of
sunlight that reaches the surface of the Earth. Less heat would get absorbed, which
could slow the increased warming.
2.
Precipitation. Global climate models show that precipitation will generally
increase due to the increased amount of water held in a warmer atmosphere, but
not in all regions. Some regions will dry out instead. Changes in precipitation
patterns, such as increased water availability, may cause an increase in plant
growth, which in turn could potentially removing more carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere.
3.
Greening of the forests. Natural processes, such as tree growth, remove
about half of human carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere every year.
Scientists are currently studying where this carbon dioxide goes. The delicate
balance between the absorption and release of carbon dioxide by the oceans and
the worlds great forested regions is the subject of research by many scientists.
There is some evidence that the ability of the oceans or forests to continue
absorbing carbon dioxide may decline as the world warms, leading to faster
accumulation in the atmosphere.
4.
Ice albedo. Ice is white and very reflective, in contrast to the ocean surface,
which is dark and absorbs heat faster. As the atmosphere warms and sea ice melts,
the darker ocean absorbs more heat, causes more ice to melt, and makes the
Earth warmer overall. The ice-albedo feedback is a very strong positive feedback.
Climate tipping points: When Earths climate abruptly moves between relatively
stable states.
1.
Ocean circulation. As Arctic sea ice and the Greenland ice sheet melt, ocean
circulation in the Atlantic may divert the Gulf Stream. This and or other changes
would significantly change regional weather patterns. A change in the Gulf Stream
could lead to a significant cooling in Western Europe. This highlights the
importance of ocean circulation in maintaining regional climates.

2.

Ice loss. Due to the strong positive feedback of the ice albedo, if enough ice
melts, causing Earths surface to absorb more and more heat, then we may hit a
point of no return. Shrinking ice sheets contribute to sea level rise. Many hundreds
of millions of people live near a coast, so our ability to predict sea level rise over the

next century has substantial human and economic ramifications.

3.
Rapid release of methane. Deposits of frozen methane, a potent greenhouse
gas, and carbon dioxide lie beneath permafrost in Arctic regions. About a quarter of
the Northern hemisphere is covered by permafrost. As the environment warms and
the permafrost thaws, theses deposits can be released into the atmosphere and
present a risk of runaway warming.4
1

Claus Frohlich and Judith Lean, Solar radiative output and its variability: evidence and

mechanisms, The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review, 2004, doi:10.1007/s00159004-0024-1.

2

Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, National Oceanic & Atmospheric

Administration, 2013. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

3

NASA's Earth Observatory, "Aerosols: Tiny Particles, Big Impact," 1999.

A. Vaks et al, "Speleotherms Reveal 500,000-Year History of Siberian

Permafrost," Science, April 12, 2013: Vol. 340 no. 6129 pp. 183186, doi: 10.1126/science.1228729