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International Journal of Project Management 32 (2014) 1471 1480
www.elsevier.com/locate/ijproman

Cost overrun in the Malaysian construction industry projects:

A deeper insight
Zayyana Shehu a,, Intan Rohani Endut c , Akintola Akintoye b , Gary D. Holt b,d
a

3 Lines Technologies UK LTD, 165-168 Regent Street, London W1B 5TD, United Kingdom
Professor of Construction Management and Economics, Grenfell-Baines School of Architecture, Construction and Environment, University of Central Lancashire,
Preston, PR1 2HE, United Kingdom
c
Faculty of Civil Engineering, University Teknologi MARA, 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
d
Professor of Innovation in Machinery Management, Birmingham City Business School,Birmingham, B42 2SU, United Kingdom
Received 20 April 2013; received in revised form 2 April 2014; accepted 8 April 2014
Available online 13 May 2014

Abstract
The construction industry drives economic growth and development in Malaysia, but unfortunately, its projects often suffer from cost overruns
(that is, negative cost variance such that nal project cost exceeds contract sum). This can lead to conict and litigation, or in the extreme, projects
may even be abandoned. To better understand this phenomenon, a questionnaire survey of Malaysian quantity-surveying consultants was
undertaken to obtain project characteristics and cost performance data, in relation to a sample of 359 recently completed construction projects. Data
were analysed in terms of project nancial outturn based on: contract values; project sector; type of project; procurement route; nature of projects;
and tendering method used. The ndings offer stakeholders descriptive statistical cost performance information in relation to these characteristics.
These statistics will support rst-order project management decision-making within Malaysia particularly; and internationally more generally, with
a view to helping minimise project cost variance in the future.
2014 Elsevier Ltd. APM and IPMA. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Malaysia; Construction industry; Project management; Cost variance; Project cost data

1. Introduction
Cost overruns frequent the construction industries of many
(both developed and developing) countries (Enshassi et al., 2009;
Sweis et al., 2013) and the significance of this, has attracted much
research over recent decades (Arditi et al., 1985; Creedy, 2004;
Dawood, 1998; Dlakwa and Culpin, 1990; Doloi, 2013;
Frimpong et al., 2003; Kaming et al., 1997; Koushki et al.,
2005; Mansfield et al., 1994). This is because cost is arguably one
of the most fundamental criteria for measuring the success of any
project (Becker et al., 2014; Hajarat and Smith, 1993; Memon
et al., 2013; San Cristbal, 2009). Although, cost still retains
intrinsic relationships with other performance criteria such as
Corresponding author. Tel.: + 447729355179.
E-mail address: zayyana.shehu@gmail.com (Z. Shehu).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.04.004
0263-7863/00./ 2014 Elsevier Ltd. APM and IPMA. All rights reserved.

time, quality and value-for-money (Holt, 2010). Nonetheless,

despite its academic attention, negative construction project cost
variance (the difference between contract sum and a greater final
project cost) remains. This is especially a problem for Malaysia's
construction industry and, its broader developing economy
(Ramanathan et al., 2012).
Project costs are commonly categorised as either direct or
indirect for contracting, accounting, taxation and other purposes
(Becker et al., 2014). However, according to Holland and Hobson
(1999) there is no universally-accepted categorization framework
for the construction industry, to partition construction costs into
direct and indirect groupings. Therefore, this research considers
the both of these cost classifications, to study Malaysian
construction project cost overruns.
The difference between agreed contract sum and final project
cost can be expressed as a ratio (Kaka and Price, 1991) whereby a

1472

Z. Shehu et al. / International Journal of Project Management 32 (2014) 14711480

ratio N 1.0 represents cost overrun. According to Cleveland

(1995), an accurate project cost estimate can provide a good basis
for project control during construction; while inaccurate cost
estimation is detrimental to both contractors and clients. This
because an overestimated cost will likely be unacceptable to the
client at project feasibility stage, whereas an underestimated cost
will typically lead to an increased outturn cost (ratio N 1.0). The
latter situation typically translates to financial losses for the
contractor and/or client (depending on who assumes the burden
according to contract terms) (Akintoye, 2000; DeMarco, 2005).
Given this, the aim of this study was to investigate certain project
characteristics influencing Malaysian construction project overruns, through an industry-wide survey and subsequent analysis,
of real project outturn data.
2. Cost overruns and their imperative in Malaysian
construction projects
Construction cost overrun has attracted attention at both
national and global levels. Using the factor analysis technique,
Le-Hoai et al. (2009) compared causes of construction time and
cost overruns in Asia and Africa, to categorize them into seven
principal factors: slowness and lack of constraint; incompetence;
design; market and estimate; financial capability; government;
and workers. Nawaz et al.'s (2013) work on cost performance in
Pakistan listed factors that are responsible for cost overruns, to
include corruption and bribery, political interests, poor site
management, delay in site mobilization, rigid attitude by
consultants, extra work without approvals, and frequent changes
during execution. Rosenfeld (2014) meanwhile undertook a
root-cause analysis of construction-cost overruns and identified
15 universal root causes, among which, premature tender
documents; too many changes in owners requirements or
definitions; and unrealistic tender-prices were featured.
Different strategies are continually being developed to address
construction cost overrun. For example, the UK Government
Construction Strategy report by the Procurement/Lean Client
Task Group (UK Government, 2012) proposed an Integrated
Project Insurance; to cover excessive cost overrun as a means of
providing cost effective financial security to any funder and cover
all for all supply chain members. The rationale underpinning this
is to remove the potential for a blame culture and the
passing-on of liability within the construction team. The US
Construction Industry Institute (CII) have conducted extensive
research into indirect construction costs (IDCC) based on expert
opinions, data collection interviews and analysis of 47 case study
project surveys. CII published a comprehensive guide on process
improvement opportunities to reduce IDCC (CII, 2014a). They
also offer a performance assessment system, through which
online users can submit project data to assess (inter-alia) cost
performance, against best practice statistics (CII, 2014b).
The construction industry in Malaysia plays a vital role in the
country's development (Azhar et al., 2008; Endut, 2008; Memon
et al., 2013). It contributes significantly to national economic
growth (Sambasivan and Soon, 2007); creates employment both
directly and indirectly (Ramanathan et al., 2012); and improves
citizens' quality of life through provision of essential socio-

economic infrastructure and public facilities (Memon et al.,

2013). According to Mansor (2010), cited by Memon et al.
(2013), the 10th Malaysia Plan allows RM230 billion
( 72.4 billion USD at 2014 conversion) for development,
and RM20 billion ( 6.3 billion USD) facilitation funds to create
impetus in driving demand for the sector.
Of the RM230 billion development expenditure, 60%, or
RM138 billion (43.4USD), was expended on physical development to be undertaken directly by the construction sector. With
such high levels of capital investment and considering said role
construction plays in Malaysian economics, the industry faces two
recurrent (and inter-related) problems. These are: i) slippage of
project-schedules (time overrun); and ii) negative cost variance
(project cost overrun) (Endut et al., 2006; Ramanathan et al.,
2012; Sambasivan and Soon, 2007). A result of these (and other
problems linked to them) is that many clients are left with a feeling
of dissatisfaction, relating to their construction project experience
(Egan, 1998; Nzekwe-Excel, 2012).
This research adopts the axiom for evaluating the project cost
ratio (CR) proffered by Endut (2008) viz: Cost Ratio (CR) =
(Final Cost Contract Cost). As explained in the Introduction, the
ideal CR is 1.0; so any value above this can be considered as cost
overrun. Table 1 shows the cost ratios of public, private, new
build and refurbishment projects derived from the sample data
used in this study. It can be seen that the CR values for all
categories of Malaysian projects exceeded 1.0.
The problem of construction projects exceeding contract sum
exists among both developed and developing countries
(Anastasopoulos et al., 2010; Sambasivan and Soon, 2007). As
can be seen from the cost ratio analyses in Table 1, the overall
CR = 1.04. But, it has been claimed that the extent of overrun,
may be greater among developing economies (Memon et al.,
2011). For instance, Kaming et al. (1997) indicated that more
than 92% of Indonesian building projects experienced cost
overruns, whilst Kolltveit and Gronhaug (2004) revealed
overruns from between 6 and 160% among Norwegian projects.
Meanwhile, Ganuza-Fernandez (1996) (cited by Perez-Castrillo
and Riedinger, 2004), suggested that as much as 77% of Spanish
construction projects suffered in this way and one-third of these
extended approximately 20% beyond contract sum. It is clear
therefore, that this is a global phenomenon (see additionally, for
instance, Ali and Kamaruzzaman, 2010; Doloi et al., 2012;
Enshassi et al., 2009; and Memon et al., 2013). Approximately
half of all Malaysian construction projects experience between
0.03 and 72.88% cost overruns and so is little different to other
countries in this respect (Memon et al., 2013).
Scholars including Morris and Hough (1987), Ellis (1985) and
Flyvbjerg et al. (2004) suggest that larger projects experience
Table 1
Project type cost ratios.
Category

Cost ratio

Mean

Min

Max

Median

SD

Overall
Public project
Private project
New build
Refurbishment

1.04
1.04
1.05
1.05
1.01

1.02
1.01
1.06
1.01
1.03

0.20
0.20
0.91
0.20
0.59

1.89
1.89
1.73
1.89
1.48

1.01
1.00
1.03
1.00
1.01

0.16
0.16
0.14
0.16
0.16

Z. Shehu et al. / International Journal of Project Management 32 (2014) 14711480

greater (value) overruns, but disparity is apparent among the

literature regarding this in relation to, for instance, geographical
location or project typology. On the former for example, Odeck
(2004) suggested a range of between 59 and 183% among
Norwegian public road works; Pickrell (1990) observed 10%
among US Department of Transportation projects; and Fourancre
et al. (1990) suggested up to 500% negative cost variance among
UK Transport and Road Research Laboratory data. Flyvbjerg
et al. (2003), in studying 258 Danish transport infrastructure
projects, found a range of between 80 and 280% overrun
and the likelihood of actual costs being larger than contract sum
at 0.86 and likelihood of them being lower at 0.14. Regarding
project types, Jahren and Ashe (1990) suggested a range of 10
to 20% for naval facility construction projects; Kolltveit and
Gronhaug (2004) found large-scale projects overran between 6
and 160%; and Skamris and Flyvbjerg (1997) suggested between
50 to 100% among construction projects generally.
Linking project size to the geographic focus of this study, it
is noteworthy that in Malaysia, projects costing less than
RM10 million ( 3.2 million USD) are normally constructed
by small contractors (CIDB, 2005a). These, according to Takim
(2005) perform worse than large contractors and especially in
terms of planning and coordination; which often leads to cost
overrun in this cost range (Endut, 2008). However, the Malaysian
experience is not project size-constrained; and as suggested by
Ibrahim et al. (2010) remains therefore, a common problem
lacking investigation especially at the industry cause and effect
level. It has been confirmed that some of the effects of Malaysian
cost overrun include but are not confined to, arbitration,
abandonment, delays (time overrun), disputes and litigation
(Ibironke et al., 2013; Sambasivan and Soon, 2007).
3. Methodology
Based predominantly on review of extant literature in the
field, a questionnaire was designed to investigate Malaysian
construction project overrun through an industry-wide survey.
Information sought in the first part of the questionnaire is
related to the respondent and their project, mainly for the
purposes of analysing data in relation to these aspects later.
This included: general information about the respondent
company; name of project; start and completion dates; location;
number of storeys; gross floor area (in the case of building
projects); contract and actual duration periods; pre-contract
budget; contract sum and final account cost.
The second part collected data regarding specific features of
the projects that were identified from the literature as having
potential bearing on cost variance. For instance, see Pearl et al.
(2003), Kaka and Price (1991), Chan et al. (2010), and Park and
Papadopoulou (2012). These features included: the project sector
(public or private); type of project (new build or refurbishment);
nature of project (residential, infrastructure, commercial, office,
educational or health); procurement method (traditional, design
and build or project management); and tendering method (open,
selective or negotiated). The first draft questionnaire was piloted
(Altman et al., 2006) among a sample of 20 academics and
construction consultants combined (Denscombe, 2010; Lancaster

1473

Table 2
Project characteristics.
Characteristic

Number a

Percent b

Type
New build
Refurbishment

301
58

83.8
16.2

Nature of works
Infrastructure
Educational
Residential
Office
Commercial
Health
Recreational
Industrial

139
111
52
29
13
11
3
1

38.7
30.9
14.5
8.1
3.6
3.1
0.8
0.3

Location
Selangor
Perak
Wilayah Persekutuan
Kelantan
Johor
Kedah
Pulau Pinang
Pahang
Terengganu
Negeri Sembilan
Melaka
Perlis
Sabah
Sarawak
Terengganu
Negeri Sembilan
Melaka
Perlis
Sabah
Sarawak

118
56
30
24
23
22
22
13
13
12
10
9
6
1
13
12
10
9
6
1

32.9
15.6
8.4
6.7
6.4
6.1
6.1
3.6
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.5
1.7
0.3
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.5
1.7
0.3

Sector
Public
Private

308
51

85.8
14.2

Procurement
Traditional
Design and build
Project management
Man. contracting
Turnkey

291
57
9
1
1

81.1
15.9
2.5
0.3
0.3

Tender
Open
Selected
Negotiated

176
118
65

49.0
32.9
18.1

Totals for all characteristics:

a
= 359.
b
= 100%.

et al., 2004) and following minor adjustments resulting from this

exercise, was used for the main survey.
The survey targeted the entire population of quantitysurveying consultants (150 companies) in Malaysia; who were
invited to offer the information described above and resultantly,
data were provided in relation to a total of 359 projects. Table 2
summarises the main characteristics of these projects, which can
be summarised as: 301 new build, 58 refurbishment; 51 private

Z. Shehu et al. / International Journal of Project Management 32 (2014) 14711480

sector and 308 public sector; and a predominance of infrastructure projects (39% of all sample projects) that were procured via
traditional means (81%). Within Malaysia, new build infrastructure projects and particularly roads and utilities, predominate
(Adnan and Morledge, 2003). As in any developing country,
there is a tendency towards public sector funded projects in
infrastructure, along with other social amenities such as schools,
drainage systems and hospitals (Ofori, 1994).
4. Data analysis and discussion
Before analysing the sample data in terms of cost variance
(using descriptive analyses and regression analysis), it is useful to
first consider the projects they represent in a little more detail.
Following the clear predilection for traditional procurement; 16%
of the projects employed design and build and all remaining
procurement variants accounted for only 3%. Whilst each project
may lend itself to particular procurement requirements, the
optimal choice can reduce project costs by an average of 5%
(Alhazmi and McCaffer, 2000). The sample comprised mainly
infrastructure, educational and residential work (together
representing 93% of responses) and approximately half of these
work types, were secured via open tenders. Only one fifth of
projects were negotiated. The projects were spread throughout
many geographical locations in Malaysia, with the biggest
concentration (approximately one-third of the sample) being in
Selangor. This reflects that Selangor is one of the most developed
states in Malaysia with more project developments than any
other, and, because its government department was very willing
to provide project data for this study.
4.1. Project cost overrun
Several scholars (Doloi et al., 2012; Enshassi et al., 2009;
Memon et al., 2013) have identified with the need for greater
insight into cost estimation (contract sum) and overrun in
construction projects. Logically one may assume, first because
the cost estimate plays a major role in project decision-making
processes (Magnussen and Olsson, 2006) and second, because
its negative variance during the construction phase, leads to
Table 3
Contract sum vis--vis final cost.
Category

RM million.

209
58.2
44
12.3
38
10.6
14
3.9
11
3.1
11
3.1
32
8.9
359
100
18.46
0.10
563.30
46.70

Cost overruns are distributed across seven class ranges, from

b 0% to N 30.1%, as shown in Table 4. Projects that were
completed below contract sum are reflected in the negative
minimum overall result ( 80%). There are several reasons why
this could be, including a reduction of work at client request,
design changes or increased efficiency from (for instance) raw
material selection. Overall, the sample experienced a mean
percentage overrun of 2% and among positive overrun projects
this was 11.7%.
Approximately 45% of projects were completed at or below
contract sum; the remainder overran supporting extant
literature stating that negative variance is more common than
positive variance (Flyvbjerg et al., 2003; Morris and Hough,
1987; Skamris and Flyvbjerg, 1997). The mean value (2%)
reflects the balance of negative and positive variance. Aibinu
and Jagboro (2002) suggested an allowance of 17% of total cost

Final cost

Freq. Percent Sum a

0.05.0
5.110.0
10.120.0
Large
20.130.0
30.140.0
40.150.0
Very large N 50.1
Totals
Mean a
Minimum a
Maximum a
Std. Deviation a

4.2. Actual cost overrun in Malaysian construction projects

700

Class range a Contract sum

Small
Medium

perceptions of poor project outcome (Latham, 1994; Memon

et al., 2013). Table 3 presents an analysis by class range of
contract sum vis--vis final cost for those data analysed.
Most contract sums were in the class RM5 ( 1.5USD)
million (n = 209), and the lowest frequency (n = 22) was in the
range RM30.1 (9.75USD) million to RM50.1 (15.7USD) million.
This supports Langdon and Seah (1997) who established that the
Malaysian construction industry executed many more small
projects than larger ones; but contradicts that literature which
suggests that larger projects have the higher cost overruns
(Flyvbjerg et al., 2004; Morris and Hough, 1987). Indeed,
comparison of the contract sum and final cost columns in Table 3,
suggests very little difference in terms of trends. The differences
that do exist may be due to an advance transition of activities
within the industry, in terms of the phase of national development.
The relationship between contract costs and final costs was further
evaluated using regression analysis Fig. 1 shows the graphical
result for all sample projects. The high R2 value (0.98) suggests
minimal discrepancy between these two sub-sets of data with the
implication being, that cost overrun when considered among all
projects combined was minimal. The figure also shows that the
distribution of cost variance (both negative and positive) is much
greater among lower contract values.

Freq. Percent Sum a

432.0 201
56.0
832.9 49
13.6
38
10.6
1214.5 12
3.3
18
5.0
7
1.9
4147.6 34
9.5
6627.0 359
100
19.17
0.10
567.30
49.04

422.2
884.8
1236.0

4340.6
6883.6

Contract sum (RM million)

1474

R = 0.98

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0

100

200

300

400

500

Final cost (RM million)

Fig. 1. Contract sum vis--vis final cost all sample.

600

Z. Shehu et al. / International Journal of Project Management 32 (2014) 14711480

Table 4
Overrun frequency analysis.

Table 6
Analysis by project type.

Class range (%)

Freq.

b0
0
0.15
5.110
10.120
20.130
N30.1
Totals

151
9
72
45
53
13
16
359

42.1
2.5
20.1
12.5
14.8
3.6
4.4
100.0

Overall
Mean (%)
Minimum (%)
Maximum (%)
Std. Deviation

2.084
80.38
88.76
16.44

Positive overrun
Mean (%)
Std. Deviation

11.69
13.48

estimate (based on Nigerian data) and the United States

Department of Energy recommended a 1520 per cent
allowance for budget estimates for new buildings. Compared
with the literature, the cost overruns from 80.38% to 88.76%
for Malaysian construction projects could be seen as typical
(42% below contact sum, 3% on budget and 55% costing more
than contract sum).

4.3. Cost overrun based on project sector

The final cost of public works is often considerably higher than
the price at which the contract is awarded in the tendering process
(Bucciol et al., 2013). Usually, private projects perform better
than public projects (Flyvbjerg et al., 2002; Sweis et al., 2013) but
the current research produced different results (Table 5). Based on
mean overall frequency, public sector projects (1.37%) performed
better than private sector ones (6.43%).

Table 5
Analysis by project sector.
Class range (%)

1475

Public

Private

Freq.

Freq.

b0
0
0.15
5.110
10.120
20.130
N30.0
Totals

137
4
62
31
50
11
13
308

44.5
1.3
20.1
10.1
16.2
3.6
4.2
100

14
5
10
14
3
2
3
51

27.5
9.8
19.6
27.5
5.9
3.9
5.9
100

Overall
Mean (%)
Minimum (%)
Maximum (%)
Std. Deviation

1.37
80.38
88.76
16.66

6.427
9.230
72.880
14.494

Class range (%)

New build

Refurbishment

Freq.

Freq.

b0
0
0.15
5.110
10.120
20.130
N30.0
Totals

127
7
64
38
43
9
13
301

43.2
2.3
20.6
12.3
14.3
3.0
4.3
100

24
2
9
6
10
4
3
58

41.4
3.4
15.5
10.4
17.2
6.9
5.2
100

Overall
Mean (%)
Minimum (%)
Maximum (%)
Std. Deviation

1.86
80.38
88.76
16.43

3.20
43.69
48.37
16.59

Positive overrun
Mean (%)
Std. Deviation

11.35
13.76

13.40
11.99

4.4. Cost overrun based on type of project

Table 6 analyses cost variance by type of projects. The highest
frequency of cost overrun for new build projects was 20.6% (in
the 0.1 to 5 per cent class range); and for refurbishment projects
17.2% (in the 10.1 to 20 per cent class range). For new build, 45%
of projects were completed at or below contract sum with a
similar statistic among refurbishment projects being 45%.
Overall, the trend between both project types was similar
suggesting that new build vis--vis refurbishment was not a
strong discriminator of cost variance; although the overall mean
value for positive overrun is consistent with Reyers and
Mansfield's (2001) contention, that refurbishment contingencies
were higher compared with new build projects of the same value.
The overrun mean values for new build and refurbishment
projects were 1.86% and 3.20% respectively, reiterating an earlier
observation that refurbishment projects are more prone to
negative cost variance. This sympathises with the findings of
other scholars such as Ashworth and Skitmore (1983), Quah
(1992) and Reyes and Mansfield (2001). Such tendency has been
attributed to increased complexity of refurbishment projects
when compared to new build (Baccarini, 1996; Murray, 2000).
4.5. Cost overrun based on procurement methods
The most common procurement method used within construction is traditional (e.g. Idoro, 2012) although other, more
mutually beneficial routes such as partnering, design and build,
management contracting, and project management have all
witnessed increased usage over recent years (Holt, 2010). In
this analysis, three procurement methods were considered:
traditional, design and build, and project management. This was
because management contracting and construction management
were only used in only five of the sample projects, and such a
small number made their inclusion in comparative data analysis
unjustifiable (and unreliable). Table 7 presents the frequencies of

1476

Z. Shehu et al. / International Journal of Project Management 32 (2014) 14711480

Table 7
Analysis by procurement method.
Class range (%)

4.6. Cost overrun based on nature of projects

Traditional

D & Build

Freq.

Freq.

Project Man.
Freq.

b0
0
0.15
5.110
10.120
20.130
N30.1
Totals

124
6
51
37
51
10
12
291

42.6
2.1
17.5
12.7
17.5
3.4
4.1
100

26
3
18
3
2
2
4
58

44.8
5.2
31.0
5.2
3.4
3.4
6.9
100

1
0
4
3
0
1
0
9

11.1
0.0
44.4
33.3
0.0
11.1
0.0
100

Overall
Mean (%)
Minimum (%)
Maximum (%)
Std. Deviation

1.770
80.38
72.88
15.84

2.90
43.69
88.76
20.10

6.49
3.36
29.36
9.19

Positive overrun
Mean (%)
Std. Deviation

11.65
11.52

13.24
22.35

7.72
8.99

cost variance in relation to the seven class ranges among

procurement types.
Traditional procurement was most popular (291 projects);
followed by design and build (58 projects), then project
management (9 projects). Project management experienced the
highest frequency of overruns in the 0.1 to 5 per cent class range
(44.4%), as did design and build (31.0%). Traditional procurement however, experienced the highest frequency of overruns in
the smaller (percentage overrun) class ranges and these tailed off
markedly for overruns above 20.1%. These observations contradict Akintoye (1994), whose study suggested that design and
build could account for up to one-fifth reduction in project cost
compared with traditional. The mean percentage cost overrun
values show that among this sample, traditional procurement
yielded better cost performance (traditional 1.7, design and build
2.9, and project management 6.5%).

The nature of the project can influence cost variance (Pearl

et al., 2003). Table 8 presents cost variance analysis for the
different types of project among the sample data; which
comprised mainly infrastructure (n = 139) and educational
(n = 111) with health projects representing the smallest group
(n = 11). For four of the six project types, the highest overrun
frequency was in the range of 0.1 to 5 per cent cost overrun class.
Infrastructure projects had a mean value of 3.2 per cent
overrun with a range of between 80.38 and 88.76%. Thirty-six
per cent of these projects experienced positive cost variance;
1.4% were to contract sum and 62.6% experienced negative
variance (overrun). These findings support those of Odeck (2004)
who studied 620 Norwegian road projects (see also Flyvbjerg
et al., 2002; Skamris and Flyvbjerg, 1997). Residential projects
experienced cost variance between 7.76 and 48.37% with a
mean value of 2.53%. Okuwoga's (1998) Nigerian housing
projects study found that 25% of the sample completed with less
than a 15 per cent cost overrun indicating that residential
projects in Malaysia perform better than their Nigerian developing country counterparts. Educational projects experienced cost
variance from 44.20 to 53.14% with a mean of 0.83. Overall,
best-cost performance was exhibited by the residential project
group ( 2.5%); the worst being the office projects with a mean of
11.8%.
Fig. 2 shows a graphical analysis of cost variance among the
sample based on contract sum. This identified that the smaller
the project value, the greater was the propensity of cost
variance and this interestingly, demonstrated an approximately
similar negative/positive distribution. A very similar set of
circumstances was observed when conducting the same graphical analysis among final project costs. This confirmed that
tendency for cost variance decreased with project value; as did
the degree of variance between contract sum and final cost.
However, in considering these observations it is noted that the

Table 8
Analysis by nature of project.
Class range
(% overrun)

Residential

Infrastructure

Commercial

Office

Educational

Health

Freq.

b0
0
0.15
5.110
10.120
20.130
N30.1
Totals

29
2
10
7
2
1
1
52

Freq.

Freq.

Freq.

Freq.

Freq.

55.8
3.8
19.2
13.5
3.8
1.9
1.9
100

50
2
30
15
28
7
7
139

36.0
1.4
21.6
10.8
20.1
5.0
5.0
100

2
1
1
3
3
0
2
13

23.1
7.7
7.7
23.1
23.1
0.0
15.4
100

6
1
5
7
5
1
4
29

20.7
3.4
17.2
24.1
17.2
3.4
13.8
100

57
1
24
11
14
2
2
111

51.4
0.9
21.6
9.9
12.6
1.8
1.8
100

6
1
2
1
0
1
0
11

54.5
9.1
18.2
9.1
0.0
9.1
0.0
100

Overall
Mean (%)
Minimum (%)
Maximum (%)
Std. Deviation

2.53
27.76
48.37
12.76

3.24
80.38
88.76
19.03

11.04
6.78
40.84
15.14

11.86
9.57
72.88
17.16

0.83
44.20
53.14
13.07

1.87
16.67
26.69
12.22

Positive overrun
Mean (%)
Std. Deviation

7.91
10.93

12.48
14.58

17.03
14.28

16.38
17.35

8.87
9.84

9.31
11.99

Z. Shehu et al. / International Journal of Project Management 32 (2014) 14711480

1477

80

Percentage cost variance

60
40
20
0
0

50

100

150

200

250

-20
-40
-60
Contract cost (RM million)

Fig. 2. Cost variance among the sample.

number of large projects in the sample was small. Here, the

main objective was to explore the distribution of the cost
overrun regardless of project size; but future research might
consider a more equally stratified sample (in this context) to
compare results.

that selective tendering is the method offering best-cost

performance. This is borne out in that 52% of projects were
completed at or below contract sum using selective tendering,
with corresponding statistics being 46 and 39% for negotiated
and open tender methods respectively.

4.7. Cost overrun based on tendering method

4.8. Cost overrun based on contract sum

As highlighted in the Methodology section, within Malaysia

there are three main tendering methods: open, selective, and
negotiated. Open tender is the most common method among both
public and private sector construction projects, albeit selective
and negotiated methods are becoming increasingly popular for
public sector projects. Table 9 presents analysis in respect of cost
overrun for these three tendering types. The highest frequency of
cost overrun was in the 0.1 to 5 per cent class range for all three
tender methods (21, 17 and 23% of projects for open, selective
and negotiated respectively) open and selective achieving
slightly better performance based on this specific metric. Based
on mean cost overrun values, selective (0.67%) performed better
than negotiated (2.5%) and open tender methods (2.8%) implying

CIDB of Malaysia introduced different categories of project

size for the construction industry excellence award 2005 (CIDB,
2005b), with division of projects into small scale which are
contract values less than RM3 million ( 0.93 million USD);
medium scale which are between RM3 million and
RM50 million ( 15.6 million USD), and major scale having
a contract value more than RM50 million. For the purpose of data
analysis, these categories were used to help design four company
size classifications: small (RM05 m), medium (RM5.120 m),

Table 9
Analysis by tendering method.
Class range
(% overrun)

Open tender

Select. tender

Freq.

Freq.

Freq.

b0
0
0.15
5.110
10.120
20.130
N30.1
Totals

67
1
37
20
32
8
11
176

38.1
0.6
21.0
11.4
18.2
4.5
6.3
100

58
4
20
16
14
3
3
118

49.2
3.4
16.9
13.6
11.9
2.5
2.5
100

26
4
15
9
7
2
2
65

40.0
6.2
23.1
13.8
10.8
3.1
3.1
100

Overall
Mean (%)
Minimum (%)
Maximum (%)
Std. Deviation

2.87
80.38
72.88
17.62

0.67
44.20
53.14
13.34

Neg. tender

2.50
43.69
88.76
18.21

Table 10
Analysis by contract sum.
Class range
(% overrun)

10.43
10.79

11.60
18.80

Large c

Very large d

Freq.

Freq.

Freq.

Freq.

97
7
36
24
29
3
5
201

48.3
3.5
17.9
11.9
14.4
1.5
2.5
100

20
1
20
8
16
10
6
87

24.7
1.2
24.7
9.9
19.8
12.3
7.4
100

18
0
4
4
7
1
3
37

48.6
0.0
10.8
10.8
18.9
2.7
8.1
100

10
1
12
9
1
0
1
34

29.4
2.9
35.3
26.5
2.9
0.0
2.9
100

Overall
Mean (%)
Minimum (%)
Maximum (%)
Std. Deviation

1.16
80.38
72.88
16.21

Positive overrun
Mean (%)
10.16
Std. Deviation 11.43
b

12.38
12.77

Medium b

b0
0
0.15
5.110
10.120
20.130
N30.1
Totals

Positive overrun
Mean (%)
Std. Deviation

Small a

c
d

RM05 m.
RM5.120 m.
RM20.150 m.
NRM50 m.

8.04
21.23
49.77
13.75

4.70
28.45
73.33
19.14

3.19
22.87
88.76
16.73

13.88
12.29

17.09
18.43

8.01
17.90

1478

Z. Shehu et al. / International Journal of Project Management 32 (2014) 14711480

large (RM20.150 m) and very large (N RM50 m) as shown

in Table 10.
The distribution of sample projects was skewed towards the
lower classification size, with decreasing numbers in each
category from 201 small projects to 34 very large projects. All
except the large project category experienced the greatest
percentage of overruns in the 0.1 to 5 per cent overrun class; the
exception being large projects that experienced most (19%) of
projects in the 10.1 to 20 per cent overrun class. Based on the
percentage of projects completing at or below the contract sum,
small projects performed best (52%). The remaining order was
large (49%); very large (32%); and medium (26%).
The mean cost variance percentage for small projects was
1.16% (best project size performance among the sample) and the
largest was 8.04% for medium projects (worst project size
performance). Hence, the small projects showed better mean cost
overrun value compared with the other size classifications but
the large variance between negative and positive cost variance
values, suggests that small projects can still be prone to extreme
cost performance fluctuation, resulting from individual project
situations. According to some scholars (Flyvbjerg et al., 2004;
Jahren and Ashe, 1990), project size is an influence on cost
overruns of infrastructure projects because other things being
equal, implementation phases can be longer for larger projects,
which may induce overruns. The mean values of actual overruns
observed in this study suggest that very large projects
(N RM50 m) are prone to the smallest negative cost variance
(8%); and large projects (RM20.1 to 55 m) are prone to the
greatest negative cost variance (17%). The record of accomplishment has also shown that larger projects are poorer than smaller
ones, and those cost overruns are particularly common in large
projects (Ellis, 1985; Merewitz, 1973; Morris and Hough, 1987).
In this study, the means show that very large projects have better
cost overrun compared with small, medium and large projects,
somewhat contradicting Flyvbjerg et al. (2004).

although almost all very large projects were completed at below

10% cost overrun.
The research findings offer stakeholders significant insight
into cost performance information in relation to certain characteristics of projects project sector (public or private), nature of
project (new build or refurbishment), procurement methods
(traditional, design and build, and project management), and
nature of project (residential, infrastructure, commercial, office,
educational, and health). In addition, tendering method (open,
selected and negotiated), and project size (small, medium, large
and very large) have also been explored in this context. In
so doing, these statistics will help project managers with
first-order decision-making approximation in Malaysia especially, and internationally more generally with a view to
helping minimise negative project cost variance. The term
first-order is used here, because as highlighted by Chan and
Kumaraswamy (2002), detailed construction programmes using
advance computer packages are essential to more accurate
costing of future construction projects and increasingly so,
given the evermore increasing complexity of construction
processes and materials.
The methodology used in this research can be adopted
to explore time overrun in other international construction
industries, in order to draw comparative results. It is therefore,
unlikely that the findings presented here are applicable to every
construction industry, because regional factors may influence
time performance and/or alter the behaviour and characteristics
of research outcomes, relating to alternative geographical
locations. The findings and conclusions of this study therefore,
should be viewed and interpreted in this context.

5. Summary and conclusion

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