Avenidas Maximas Belempata

ESTACION
: QUILLABAMBA
LAT
PARAMETRO : PRECIPITACION MAXIMA 24 HORAS (mm)
LONG :
ALT
AO
ENE.
FEB.
MAR.
ABR.
MAY.
JUN.
JUL
AGO.
1996
22.0
21.0
18.0
15.4
21.0
2.5
6.1
16.7
1997
30.7
40.2
20.2
17.2
11.0
16.8
3.0
29.5
1998
39.4
24.5
38.4
19.2
4.2
4.8
1999
27.5
59.0
46.4
49.5
26.5
6.4
6.6
2000
57.9
44.7
20.0
15.5
7.6
15.8
0.6
14.2
2001
44.7
44.3
30.3
14.0
10.6
2.2
15.0
9.5
2002
21.8
54.5
47.1
10.3
9.2
5.5
12.9
23.1
2003
46.2
36.0
30.0
24.6
5.6
3.4
5.0
27.5
2004
21.2
31.0
21.8
18.4
6.6
38.1
14.5
2005
29.4
28.3
28.2
26.2
24.6
6.9
20.3
5.2
2006
49.0
23.4
43.6
39.2
4.2
8.2
4.5
14.8
2007
52.6
18.9
20.3
31.5
17.3
10.2
7.1
2008
53.1
22.8
15.6
34.0
7.9
0.6
10.8
19.2
38.2
28.0
9.8
6.5
2.3
7.8
4.0
2009
1.0
2010
18.4
83.8
36.8
26.8
7.6
9.4
9.0
13.4
2011
24.2
34.6
30.4
28.0
15.2
12.0
12.4
26.8
MAXIMO
57.90
83.80
47.10
49.50
26.50
16.80
38.10
29.50
PROMEDIO35.87
37.83
29.69
24.08
12.34
7.10
10.61
15.67
MINIMO 18.40
18.90
15.60
9.80
4.20
0.60
0.60
1.00
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
22
30.7
39.4
27.5
57.9
44.7
21.8
46.2
21.2
29.4
49
52.6
53.1
21
40.2
24.5
59
44.7
44.3
54.5
36
31
28.3
23.4
18.9
22.8
18
20.2
38.4
46.4
20
30.3
47.1
30
21.8
28.2
43.6
20.3
15.6
15.4
17.2
19.2
49.5
15.5
14
10.3
24.6
26.2
39.2
31.5
34
21
11
4.2
26.5
7.6
10.6
9.2
5.6
18.4
24.6
4.2
17.3
7.9
2.5
16.8
4.8
6.4
15.8
2.2
5.5
3.4
6.6
6.9
8.2
10.2
0.6
6.1
3
6.6
0.6
15
12.9
5
38.1
20.3
4.5
7.1
10.8
16.7
29.5
1
14.2
9.5
23.1
27.5
14.5
5.2
14.8
19.2
2009
2010
2011
26.2
18.4
24.2
38.2
83.8
34.6
28
36.8
30.4
9.8
26.8
28
6.5
7.6
15.2
2.3
9.4
12
7.8
9
12.4
4
13.4
26.8
12 51' 21"
DPTO :
CUSCO
72 41' 30"
PROV :
LA CONVENCION
990 m.s.n.m.
DIST
SANTA ANA
SET.
OCT.
NOV.
DIC.
MAXIMA
17.8
17.5
17.0
20.5
22.00
20.0
32.4
32.0
20.9
40.20
63.8
24.8
12.0
34.3
63.80
13.7
26.5
20.5
25.9
59.00
17.0
25.3
13.1
20.0
57.90
11.2
25.3
33.2
16.5
44.70
8.0
25.3
25.2
57.1
57.10
22.3
20.4
22.3
27.0
46.20
14.0
19.2
28.9
20.0
38.10
15.7
18.5
8.1
40.6
40.60
5.9
18.8
25.9
26.9
49.00
5.5
38.0
32.3
19.7
52.60
18.5
24.2
16.2
27.8
53.10
5.0
33.2
54.0
25.2
54.00
22.2
54.6
25.4
26.6
83.80
7.8
49.0
34.0
31.0
49.00
63.80
54.60
54.00
57.10
83.80
16.78
28.31
25.01
27.50
50.69
5.00
17.50
8.10
16.50
22.00
17.8
20
63.8
13.7
17
11.2
8
22.3
14
15.7
5.9
5.5
18.5
17.5
32.4
24.8
26.5
25.3
25.3
20.4
19.2
18.5
18.8
38
24.2
17
32
12
20.5
13.1
33.2
25.2
22.3
28.9
8.1
25.9
32.3
16.2
20.5
20.9
34.3
25.9
20
16.5
57.1
27
20
40.6
26.9
19.7
27.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
22.2
7.8
33.2
54.6
49
54
25.4
34
25.2
26.6
31
-26.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
25.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Precipitacin Mxima
N
Ao
Mes
Pp max. 24 horas
(mm)
1996
Enero
22.0
1997
Febrero
40.2
1998
Setiembre
63.8
1999
Febrero
59.0
2000
Enero
57.9
2001
Enero
44.7
2002
Diciembre
57.1
2003
Enero
46.2
2004
Julio
38.1
10
2005
Diciembre
40.6
10
11
2006
Enero
49.0
11
12
2007
Enero
52.6
12
13
2008
Enero
53.1
13
14
2009
Noviembre
54.0
14
15
2010
Febrero
83.8
15
16
2011
Octubre
49.0
16
Dato
excluido
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
Precipitacion
(mm)
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Ao
20.0
10.0
0.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Ao
Ao
Pp max. 24 horas
corregida
(mm)
1996
24.9
1997
45.4
1998
72.1
1999
66.7
2000
65.4
2001
50.5
2002
64.5
2003
52.2
2004
43.1
2005
45.9
2006
55.4
2007
59.4
2008
60.0
2009
61.0
2010
94.7
2011
55.4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Precipitacin Mxima
Ao
Pp max. 24
horas (mm)
Log Pp max. 24
horas (mm)
Quillabamba
Quillabamba
Quillabamba
LS
LI
1996
22.0
1.342
94.532
25.289
1997
40.2
1.604
94.532
25.289
1998
63.8
1.805
94.532
25.289
1999
59.0
1.771
94.532
25.289
2000
57.9
1.763
94.532
25.289
2001
44.7
1.650
94.532
25.289
2002
57.1
1.757
94.532
25.289
2003
46.2
1.665
94.532
25.289
2004
38.1
1.581
94.532
25.289
10
2005
40.6
1.609
94.532
25.289
11
2006
49.0
1.690
94.532
25.289
12
2007
52.6
1.721
94.532
25.289
13
2008
53.1
1.725
94.532
25.289
14
2009
54.0
1.732
94.532
25.289
15
2010
83.8
1.923
94.532
25.289
16
2011
49.0
1.690
94.532
25.289
100.0
90.0
Quillabamba
Media
1.689
80.0
Desviacion Estandar
0.1256
70.0
16
Kn
YL (superior)
2.279
YL (inferior)
1.40
40.0
Limite Superior
94.53
30.0
Limite Inferior
25.29
1.98
60.0
50.0
Precipitacion (mm)
20.0
10.0
0.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ao
1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Ao
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)

ESTACION QUILLABAMBA
Distribution Analysis: Normal Distribution
First Moment (mean) = 55.7064
Second Moment = 5.261e01
Skew = -3.007e-01
Numero
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Weibull
Probabilidad
0.0833
0.1667
0.25
0.3333
0.4167
0.5
0.5833
0.6667
0.75
0.8333
0.9167
Valor
Actual
Valor Previsto
43.10
45.90
50.50
52.20
55.37
55.40
59.40
60.00
61.00
64.50
65.40
45.67
48.69
50.82
52.59
54.18
55.71
57.23
58.83
60.60
62.72
65.74
Normal Distributi
Predicciones
Prob. de no
Excedencia
0.98
0.96
0.95
0.9
0.8
Perido de
Retorno
50
25
20
10
5
Valor
Calculado
70.61
68.41
67.64
65.00
61.81
Desviacin
Standard
4.996
4.410 Value
4.211
3.555
2.858
Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver.

6.3
80
60
40
20
0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Weibull Probability
0.8
A EN 24 HORAS (mm)
LABAMBA
: Normal Distribution
Desviacin
Standard
3.7328
3.0427
2.6375
2.3808
2.2346
2.1869
2.2346
2.3808
2.6375
3.0427
3.7328
Normal Distribution
80
60
Actual Data
40
20
Distribution
0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Weibull Probability
0.8
1.0

------------------Summary of Data ----------------------First Moment (mean) = 55.7064
Skew = -3.007e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
Weibull Actual Predicted Standard
Number Probability Value Value Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0833 43.1000 45.6735
3.7328
2
0.1667 45.9000 48.6898
3.0427
3
0.2500 50.5000 50.8163
2.6375
4
0.3333 52.2000 52.5853
2.3808
5
0.4167 55.3700 54.1828
2.2346
6
0.5000 55.4000 55.7064
2.1869
7
0.5833 59.4000 57.2299
2.2346
8
0.6667 60.0000 58.8274
2.3808
9
0.7500 61.0000 60.5964
2.6375
10
0.8333 64.5000 62.7229
3.0427
11
0.9167 65.4000 65.7393
3.7328
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------Exceedence Return
Calculated Standard
Probability Period
Value Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9800
50.0
70.6059
4.9964
0.9600
25.0
68.4073
4.4099
0.9500
20.0
67.6395
4.2105
0.9000
10.0
65.0031
3.5552
0.8000
5.0
61.8097
2.8581
---------------------------------------------------------

------------------Summary of Data -----------------------
--------------------------------------------------------Point
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0833 43.1000 45.6735
3.7328
2
0.1667 45.9000 48.6898
3.0427
3
0.2500 50.5000 50.8163
2.6375
4
0.3333 52.2000 52.5853
2.3808
5
0.4167 55.3700 54.1828
2.2346
6
0.5000 55.4000 55.7064
2.1869
7
0.5833 59.4000 57.2299
2.2346
8
0.6667 60.0000 58.8274
2.3808
9
0.7500 61.0000 60.5964
2.6375
10
0.8333 64.5000 62.7229
3.0427
11
0.9167 65.4000 65.7393
3.7328
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------

Distribution Analysis: 2 Parameter Log Normal
Skew = -3.007e-01
Weibull
Probabilidad
Numero
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0.0833
0.1667
0.25
0.3333
0.4167
0.5
0.5833
0.6667
0.75
0.8333
0.9167
Valor
Actual
Valor Previsto
43.10
45.90
50.50
52.20
55.37
55.40
59.40
60.00
61.00
64.50
65.40
2 Parameter Log No
Predicciones
Prob. de no
Excedencia
0.98
0.96
0.95
0.9
0.8
Perido de
Retorno
50
25
20
10
5
46.17
48.73
50.62
52.24
53.76
55.24
56.77
58.41
60.29
62.62
66.09
Valor
Calculado
72.10
69.32
68.37
65.23
61.61
Desviacin
Standard
4.788
4.230 Value
4.045
3.455
2.848
Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3
80
60
40
20
0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Weibull Probability
0.8
N 24 HORAS (mm)
BAMBA
arameter Log Normal
Desviacin
Standard
2.6487
2.3438
2.1918
2.1227
2.1152
2.1617
2.2616
2.4209
2.6559
3.0079
3.6125
2 Parameter Log Normal
0
Actual Data
0
0.0
Distribution
0.2
0.4
0.6
Weibull Probability
0.8
1.0

Skew = -3.007e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0833 43.1000 46.1705
2.6487
2
0.1667 45.9000 48.7284
2.3438
3
0.2500 50.5000 50.6163
2.1918
4
0.3333 52.2000 52.2426
2.1227
5
0.4167 55.3700 53.7559
2.1152
6
0.5000 55.4000 55.2401
2.1617
7
0.5833 59.4000 56.7652
2.2616
8
0.6667 60.0000 58.4096
2.4209
9
0.7500 61.0000 60.2862
2.6559
10
0.8333 64.5000 62.6219
3.0079
11
0.9167 65.4000 66.0912
3.6125
Calculated Standard
Probability Period
Value Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9800
50.0
72.0983
4.7880
0.9600
25.0
69.3197
4.2300
0.9500
20.0
68.3747
4.0453
0.9000
10.0
65.2271
3.4549
0.8000
5.0
61.6079
2.8482
---------------------------------------------------------

------------------Summary of Data -----------------------
--------------------------------------------------------Point
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0833 43.1000 46.1705
2.6487
2
0.1667 45.9000 48.7284
2.3438
3
0.2500 50.5000 50.6163
2.1918
4
0.3333 52.2000 52.2426
2.1227
5
0.4167 55.3700 53.7559
2.1152
6
0.5000 55.4000 55.2401
2.1617
7
0.5833 59.4000 56.7652
2.2616
8
0.6667 60.0000 58.4096
2.4209
9
0.7500 61.0000 60.2862
2.6559
10
0.8333 64.5000 62.6219
3.0079
11
0.9167 65.4000 66.0912
3.6125
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------

Distribution Analysis: Pearson Type III
Skew = -3.007e-01
Weibull
Probabilidad
Numero
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0.0833
0.1667
0.25
0.3333
0.4167
0.5
0.5833
0.6667
0.75
0.8333
0.9167
Valor
Actual
Valor Previsto
43.10
45.90
50.50
52.20
55.37
55.40
59.40
60.00
61.00
64.50
65.40
45.09
48.91
51.41
53.37
55.04
56.56
58.00
59.44
60.93
62.61
64.77
Pearson Type I
Predicciones
Prob. de no
Excedencia
0.98
0.96
0.95
0.9
0.8
Perido de
Retorno
50
25
20
10
5
Valor
Calculado
67.73
66.47
66.00
64.26
61.91
Desviacin
Standard
3.755
2.916 Value
2.680
2.141
2.041
80
60
40
20
0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Weibull Probability
EN 24 HORAS (mm)
ABAMBA
: Pearson Type III
Desviacin
Standard
4.2901
3.2226
2.8325
2.6518
2.542
2.4489
2.3486
2.2318
2.1049
2.0205
2.2465
Pearson Type III
80
60
Actual Data
40
20
Distribution
0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Weibull Probability
0.8
1.0
Distribution Analysis: Pearson Type III

Skew = -3.007e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0833 43.1000 45.0865
4.2901
2
0.1667 45.9000 48.9122
3.2226
3
0.2500 50.5000 51.4100
2.8325
4
0.3333 52.2000 53.3668
2.6518
5
0.4167 55.3700 55.0419
2.5420
6
0.5000 55.4000 56.5603
2.4489
7
0.5833 59.4000 58.0033
2.3486
8
0.6667 60.0000 59.4376
2.2318
9
0.7500 61.0000 60.9343
2.1049
10
0.8333 64.5000 62.6103
2.0205
11
0.9167 65.4000 64.7666
2.2465
Calculated Standard
Probability Period
Value Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9800
50.0
67.7336
3.7547
0.9600
25.0
66.4685
2.9162
0.9500
20.0
65.9978
2.6799
0.9000
10.0
64.2635
2.1409
0.8000
5.0
61.9067
2.0412
---------------------------------------------------------
------------------Summary of Data -----------------------
--------------------------------------------------------Point
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0833 43.1000 45.0865
4.2901
2
0.1667 45.9000 48.9122
3.2226
3
0.2500 50.5000 51.4100
2.8325
4
0.3333 52.2000 53.3668
2.6518
5
0.4167 55.3700 55.0419
2.5420
6
0.5000 55.4000 56.5603
2.4489
7
0.5833 59.4000 58.0033
2.3486
8
0.6667 60.0000 59.4376
2.2318
9
0.7500 61.0000 60.9343
2.1049
10
0.8333 64.5000 62.6103
2.0205
11
0.9167 65.4000 64.7666
2.2465
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------

Distribution Analysis: Log Pearson Type III
Skew = -3.007e-01
Weibull
Probabilidad
Numero
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0.0833
0.1667
0.25
0.3333
0.4167
0.5
0.5833
0.6667
0.75
0.8333
0.9167
Valor
Actual
Valor Previsto
43.10
45.90
50.50
52.20
55.37
55.40
59.40
60.00
61.00
64.50
65.40
44.39
48.23
50.85
52.97
54.82
56.53
58.17
59.82
61.55
63.50
66.00
Log Pearson Typ
Predicciones
Prob. de no
Excedencia
0.98
0.96
0.95
0.9
0.8
Perido de
Retorno
50
25
20
10
5
Valor
Calculado
69.36
67.94
67.41
65.42
62.68
Desviacin
Standard
5.672
4.169 Value
3.728
2.656
2.389
80
60
40
20
0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Weibull Probability
0.
EN 24 HORAS (mm)
ABAMBA
Log Pearson Type III
Desviacin
Standard
4.2031
3.3455
3.0859
3.0049
2.9651
2.9107
2.8157
2.6693
2.4841
2.3673
2.8779
Log Pearson Type III
80
60
Actual Data
40
20
Distribution
0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Weibull Probability
0.8
1.0

Skew = -3.007e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0833 43.1000 44.3898
4.2031
2
0.1667 45.9000 48.2290
3.3455
3
0.2500 50.5000 50.8539
3.0859
4
0.3333 52.2000 52.9709
3.0049
5
0.4167 55.3700 54.8219
2.9651
6
0.5000 55.4000 56.5276
2.9107
7
0.5833 59.4000 58.1696
2.8157
8
0.6667 60.0000 59.8182
2.6693
9
0.7500 61.0000 61.5513
2.4841
10
0.8333 64.5000 63.4992
2.3673
11
0.9167 65.4000 65.9975
2.8779
Calculated Standard
Probability Period
Value Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9800
50.0
69.3551
5.6718
0.9600
25.0
67.9416
4.1693
0.9500
20.0
67.4078
3.7281
0.9000
10.0
65.4170
2.6560
0.8000
5.0
62.6812
2.3888
---------------------------------------------------------

------------------Summary of Data -----------------------
--------------------------------------------------------Point
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0833 43.1000 44.3898
4.2031
2
0.1667 45.9000 48.2290
3.3455
3
0.2500 50.5000 50.8539
3.0859
4
0.3333 52.2000 52.9709
3.0049
5
0.4167 55.3700 54.8219
2.9651
6
0.5000 55.4000 56.5276
2.9107
7
0.5833 59.4000 58.1696
2.8157
8
0.6667 60.0000 59.8182
2.6693
9
0.7500 61.0000 61.5513
2.4841
10
0.8333 64.5000 63.4992
2.3673
11
0.9167 65.4000 65.9975
2.8779
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------

Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
Skew = -3.007e-01
Weibull
Probabilidad
Numero
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
0.0833
0.1667
0.25
0.3333
0.4167
0.5
0.5833
0.6667
0.75
0.8333
0.9167
Valor
Actual
Valor Previsto
43.10
45.90
50.50
52.20
55.37
55.40
59.40
60.00
61.00
64.50
65.40
Gumbel Extremal
Predicciones
Prob. de no
Excedencia
0.98
0.96
0.95
0.9
0.8
Perido de
Retorno
50
25
20
10
5
44.78
47.32
49.31
51.11
52.87
54.68
56.62
58.83
61.49
65.02
70.75
Valor
Calculado
82.07
76.62
74.85
69.27
63.46
Desviacin
Standard
9.368
7.762 Value
7.244
5.630
4.008
80
60
40
20
0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Weibull Probability
N 24 HORAS (mm)
ABAMBA
mbel Extremal Type I
Desviacin
Standard
2.7242
2.2084
1.923
1.8027
1.839
2.0259
2.3555
2.8312
3.488
4.4351
6.0555
Gumbel Extremal Type I
80
60
Actual Data
40
20
Distribution
0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Weibull Probability
0.8
1.0

Skew = -3.007e-01
--------------------------------------------------------Point
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0833 43.1000 44.7837
2.7242
2
0.1667 45.9000 47.3174
2.2084
3
0.2500 50.5000 49.3051
1.9230
4
0.3333 52.2000 51.1070
1.8027
5
0.4167 55.3700 52.8660
1.8390
6
0.5000 55.4000 54.6752
2.0259
7
0.5833 59.4000 56.6239
2.3555
8
0.6667 60.0000 58.8294
2.8312
9
0.7500 61.0000 61.4881
3.4880
10
0.8333 64.5000 65.0216
4.4351
11
0.9167 65.4000 70.7526
6.0555
Calculated Standard
Probability Period
Value Deviation
--------------------------------------------------------0.9800
50.0
82.0655
9.3677
0.9600
25.0
76.6160
7.7615
0.9500
20.0
74.8469
7.2436
0.9000
10.0
69.2701
5.6302
0.8000
5.0
63.4563
4.0082
---------------------------------------------------------

------------------Summary of Data -----------------------
--------------------------------------------------------Point
--------------------------------------------------------1
0.0833 43.1000 44.7837
2.7242
2
0.1667 45.9000 47.3174
2.2084
3
0.2500 50.5000 49.3051
1.9230
4
0.3333 52.2000 51.1070
1.8027
5
0.4167 55.3700 52.8660
1.8390
6
0.5000 55.4000 54.6752
2.0259
7
0.5833 59.4000 56.6239
2.3555
8
0.6667 60.0000 58.8294
2.8312
9
0.7500 61.0000 61.4881
3.4880
10
0.8333 64.5000 65.0216
4.4351
11
0.9167 65.4000 70.7526
6.0555
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
PRUEBA DE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV
Distribucin Normal.- Precipitacin Mxima en 24 horas
Estacin Quillabamba
m
P(mm)
z
Fo
Probabilidad
probabilidad
terica
emprica
F(z)
(m/n+1)
Abs(Fo-Fz)
43.10
-1.738
0.041
0.083
0.042
45.90
-1.352
0.088
0.167
0.078
50.50
-0.718
0.236
0.250
0.014
52.20
-0.483
0.314
0.333
0.019
55.37
-0.046
0.482
0.417
0.065
55.40
-0.042
0.483
0.500
0.017
59.40
0.509
0.695
0.583
0.111
60.00
0.592
0.723
0.667
0.056
61.00
0.730
0.767
0.750
0.017
10
64.50
1.212
0.887
0.833
0.054
11
65.40
Media
55.706
Desv. Est(S)
7.253
d crtico =
0.391
1.336
0.909
0.917
Dmax
0.007
0.111
Log
Normal
Pearson
Tipo III
Log Pearson
Tipo III
Gumbel
72.10
69.32
68.37
65.23
61.61
67.73
66.47
66.00
64.26
61.91
69.36
67.94
67.41
65.42
62.68
82.07
76.62
74.85
69.27
63.46
n= 11
=0.05
T
(aos)
Normal
70.61
50
68.41
25
67.64
20
65.00
10
61.81
5
Maximo Registrado:
65.40 mm
N Datos: 11
Distribucin Log Normal.- Precipitacin Mxima en 24 horas
Estacin Quillabamba
m
P (mm)
LnP
3
Fo
Probabilida
probabilidad
d terica
emprica
F(z)
(m/n+1)
43.10
3.764
-1.844
0.033
0.083
45.90
3.826
-1.377
0.084
0.167
50.50
3.922
-0.668
0.252
0.250
52.20
3.955
-0.423
0.336
0.333
55.37
4.014
0.015
0.506
0.417
55.40
4.015
0.019
0.508
0.500
59.40
4.084
0.536
0.704
0.583
60.00
4.094
0.611
0.729
0.667
61.00
4.111
0.733
0.768
0.750
10
64.50
4.167
1.147
0.874
0.833
11
65.40
Media
Desv. Est(S)
d crtico =
0.391
4.181
4.012
0.135
1.250
0.894
0.917
Dmax
n= 11
=0.05
V
n 24 horas
Distribucin Pearson Tipo III- Precipitacin Mxima en 24 horas
Estacin Quillabamba
21
0.051
43.10
15.882
31.763
48.963
0.082
45.90
17.792
35.584
48.963
0.002
50.50
20.930
41.859
48.963
0.003
52.20
22.089
44.179
48.963
0.089
55.37
24.252
48.504
48.963
0.008
55.40
24.272
48.545
48.963
0.121
59.40
27.001
54.002
48.963
0.063
60.00
27.410
54.820
48.963
0.018
61.00
28.092
56.185
48.963
0.041
10
64.50
30.480
60.960
48.963
65.40
55.71
7.25
31.094
62.188
48.963
11
Media
Desv.Est(S)
sesgo()
1=(2/)2
1=S/1
1=X-11
-0.4042 d crtico =
24.4813 n= 11
1.4659 =0.05
19.8186
2Y
0.022
0.121
Y=(x-1)/1
Abs(Fo-Fz)
0.391
MOGOROV-SMIRNOV
- Precipitacin Mxima en 24 horas
n Quillabamba
PRUEBA DE
Distribucin Log Pearson
E
3
2
Fx
Fo
Abs(Fo-Fx)
LnX
0.966
0.034
0.083
0.049
43.10
3.7635
0.908
0.092
0.167
0.074
45.90
3.8265
0.721
0.279
0.250
0.029
50.50
3.9220
0.630
0.370
0.333
0.037
52.20
3.9551
0.453
0.547
0.417
0.131
55.37
4.0140
0.451
0.549
0.500
0.049
55.40
4.0146
0.256
0.744
0.583
0.161
59.40
4.0843
0.232
0.768
0.667
0.102
60.00
4.0943
0.195
0.805
0.750
0.055
61.00
4.1109
0.099
0.901
0.833
0.067
10
64.50
4.1667
0.082
0.918
0.917
Dmax
0.001
0.161
11
65.40
4.1805
4.01
0.1348
Media
Desv.Est(S)
sesgo()
1=(2/)2
-0.6127
1=S/1
0.0413
1=X-11
3.5722
10.654
Distribucin Log Pearson Tipo III- Precipitacin Mxima en 24 horas
Estacin Quillabamba
Y=(x-1)/1
2Y
21
Fx
Fo
Abs(Fo-Fx)
4.6349
9.2698
21.3073
0.9869
0.0131
0.0833
0.0703
6.1593
12.3187
21.3073
0.9306
0.0694
0.1667
0.0973
8.4725
16.9450
21.3073
0.7144
0.2856
0.2500
0.0356
9.2744
18.5487
21.3073
0.6141
0.3859
0.3333
0.0526
10.7022
21.4045
21.3073
0.4345
0.5655
0.4167
0.1488
10.7153
21.4307
21.3073
0.4329
0.5671
0.5000
0.0671
12.4038
24.8076
21.3073
0.2556
0.7444
0.5833
0.1611
12.6472
25.2944
21.3073
0.2346
0.7654
0.6667
0.0987
13.0475
26.0951
21.3073
0.2028
0.7972
0.7500
0.0472
14.3988
28.7975
21.3073
0.1189
0.8811
0.8333
0.0477
14.7344
29.4688
21.3073
0.1032
0.8968
0.9167
Dmax
0.0199
0.161
d crtico =
n= 11
=0.05
0.391
Distribucin Gumbel.- Precipitacin Mxima en 24 horas
Estacin Quillabamba
Fx
Fo
Abs(Fo-Fx)
43.10
0.0418
0.0833
0.0415
45.90
0.1108
0.1667
0.0559
50.50
0.2997
0.2500
0.0497
52.20
0.3812
0.3333
0.0478
55.37
0.5289
0.4167
0.1123
55.40
0.5303
0.5000
0.0303
59.40
0.6868
0.5833
0.1034
60.00
0.7065
0.6667
0.0399
61.00
0.7373
0.7500
0.0127
10
64.50
0.8247
0.8333
0.0086
65.40
55.71
7.25
0.8426
0.9167
Dmax
0.0741
0.112
11
Media
Desv.Est(S)
uy
0.4952 d crtico =
0.9496 n= 11
Alfa
0.13092 =0.05
Beta
exp(1)
51.92395
2.71828
TABLA DE GUMBEL
n
my
sy
10
0.4952
0.9496
15
0.5128
1.0206
20
0.5236
1.0628
0.391
25
0.5309
1.0914
30
0.5362
1.1124
35
37
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
0.5403
0.54162
0.5436
0.5463
0.5485
0.5504
0.5521
0.5535
0.5548
0.5559
0.5569
0.5578
0.5586
0.5593
0.56
1.1285
1.13362
1.1413
1.1518
1.1607
1.1682
1.1747
1.1803
1.1854
1.1898
1.1938
1.1974
1.2007
1.2037
1.2065
formula de bell
Cuadro N04: Lluvias mximas (mm).- Estacin Quillabamba
T (aos)
Duracin en minutos
P.Max 24
horas
10
15
20
30
60
120
50
70.61
7.35
11.01
13.46
15.35
18.27
23.98
30.79
25
68.41
6.56
9.81
12.00
13.69
16.28
21.38
27.44
20
67.64
6.30
9.43
11.53
13.15
15.65
20.54
26.37
10
65.00
5.50
8.23
10.07
11.48
13.66
17.83
23.03
61.81
4.70
7.04
8.61
9.82
11.68
15.34
19.69
Fuente: Elaboracin propia

Cuadro N05: Intensidades mximas (mm/hora).- Estacin Quillabamba
T (aos)
Duracin en minutos
P.Max 24
horas
10
15
20
30
60
120
50
70.61
88.20
66.00
53.80
46.10
36.50
24.00
15.40
25
68.41
78.70
58.90
48.00
41.10
32.60
21.40
13.70
20
67.64
75.60
56.60
46.10
39.50
31.30
20.50
13.20
10
65.00
66.00
49.40
40.30
34.50
27.30
17.80
11.50
61.81
56.40
42.20
34.40
29.50
23.40
15.30
9.80
Fuente: Elaboracin propia
Resultado del Anlisis de Regresin:
Coeficiente de
correlacin mltiple
0.9967
Coeficiente de
determinacin R^2
0.9934
R^2 ajustado
0.9930
Error tpico
0.0213
Observaciones
35
Log (K)
2.0439
I= mm/h
0.1951
T= aos
-0.5568
t= minutos
Resumen
K= 110.63
I = 110.63 T0.195
m= 0.195
t0.557
n= 0.557
Donde:
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente 0.9967042
Coeficiente 0.9934194
R^2 ajusta 0.9930081
Error tpico 0.0212771
Observacio
35
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de Suma
libertad
de
Promedio
cuadrados
de los cuadrados
F Valor crtico de F
Regresin
2 2.186945 1.093473 2415.373 1.2E-035
Residuos
32 0.014487 0.000453
Total
34 2.201432
CoeficientesError tpicoEstadsticoProbabilidad
t
Inferior 95%
Superior 95%
Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
Intercepci 2.0438743 0.017442 117.1795 1.0E-043 2.008346 2.079403 2.008346 2.079403
Log (T)
0.1950899 0.010492 18.5943 1.0E-018 0.173719 0.216461 0.173719 0.216461
Log (t)
-0.5568426 0.008315 -66.97012 5.7E-036 -0.573779 -0.539906 -0.573779 -0.539906
3.31
198.6
X1
X2
Log (I)
Log (T)
Log (t)
1.945469
1.698970
0.698970
1.895975
1.397940
0.698970
1.878522
1.301030
0.698970
1.819544
1.000000
0.698970
1.751279
0.698970
0.698970
1.819544
1.698970
1.000000
1.770115
1.397940
1.000000
1.752816
1.301030
1.000000
1.693727
1.000000
1.000000
1.625312
0.698970
1.000000
1.730782
1.698970
1.176091
1.681241
1.397940
1.176091
1.663701
1.301030
1.176091
1.605305
1.000000
1.176091
1.536558
0.698970
1.176091
1.663701
1.698970
1.301030
1.613842
1.397940
1.301030
1.596597
1.301030
1.301030
1.537819
1.000000
1.301030
1.469822
0.698970
1.301030
1.562293
1.698970
1.477121
1.513218
1.397940
1.477121
1.495544
1.301030
1.477121
1.436163
1.000000
1.477121
1.369216
0.698970
1.477121
Superior 95.0%
1.380211
1.698970
1.778151
1.330414
1.397940
1.778151
1.311754
1.301030
1.778151
1.250420
1.000000
1.778151
1.184691
0.698970
1.778151
1.187521
1.698970
2.079181
1.136721
1.397940
2.079181
1.120574
1.301030
2.079181
1.060698
1.000000
2.079181
0.991226
0.698970
2.079181
Intensidades mximas.- Estacin Quillabamba (mm/h)

I=
K Tm
K=
tn
m=
n=
Perodo de Retorno (T) en aos
Duracin (t)
(minutos)
10
20
25
117.85
134.92
140.92
80.11
91.71
95.80
63.92
73.18
76.43
54.46
62.35
65.12
10
48.10
55.06
57.51
12
43.45
49.75
51.96
14
39.88
45.65
47.69
16
37.02
42.38
44.27
18
34.67
39.69
41.46
20
32.70
37.43
39.10
22
31.01
35.50
37.07
24
29.54
33.82
35.32
Estacion Quillabamba
160
Tr = 10 Aos
Tr = 20 Aos
140
Tr = 25 Aos
120
Tr = 50 Aos
100 (mm/h)
Intensidad
80
60
40
20
0
2
10
12
14
16
Duracin (min)
18
20
22
24
Intensidades mximas.- Estacin Quillabamba (mm/h)

I=
(t)
(min)
K Tm
K=
tn
m=
n=
T=
I (mm/h)
P (mm)
161.32
5.38
5.38
109.67
7.31
1.93
87.50
8.75
1.44
74.55
9.94
1.19
10
65.84
10.97
1.03
12
59.48
11.90
0.92
14
54.59
12.74
0.84
16
50.68
13.51
0.78
18
47.46
14.24
0.72
20
44.76
14.92
0.68
22
42.44
15.56
0.64
24
40.44
16.18
0.61
26
38.67
16.76
0.58
28
37.11
17.32
0.56
30
35.71
17.86
0.54
Hietograma Estacion Quillabamba
8.00
T=50
7.00
T=25
T=20
6.00
T=10
5.00
4.00
Precipitacion (mm)
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2
10
12 14 16 18
Tiempo (min)
20
22
24
26
28
3.6 H
Cuadro N12:Caudales mximos Mtodo Racional

K= 110.630
m= 0.195
n= 0.557
T=
T=
T=
KT m
tn
20 aos
25 aos
50 aos
Nombre
CIA
3.6
Tiempo de
Intensidad
Longitud Pendiente
mm/hora
Area del cauce L del cauce S Concentracin Tc
(km2)
(Km)
(m/m)
horas minutos T=20 T=25 T=50
Caudal Mximo
(m3/s)
T=20
T=25
T=50
Rio Sicrimayo
0.30
1.95
1.70
0.3676 0.473
28.36
30.81
32.19
36.85
5.01
5.23
5.99
Rio Picchu Alto
0.35
1.97
1.73
0.3468 0.486
29.17
30.34
31.69
36.27
5.81
6.07
6.95
Rio Ucurimayoc
0.40
4.50
3.34
0.4311 0.827
49.64
22.56
23.57
26.98
11.28
K1
1
2
3
K2
30
30
30
K3
10
10
10
K4
5
5
5
K
5
5
5
50
50
50
C
0.50
0.50
0.50
11.78 13.49

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ESTACION

PARAMETRO : PRECIPITACION MAXIMA 24 HORAS (mm)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)

Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver.

Distribution Analysis: Normal Distribution

Distribution Analysis: Normal Distribution

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)

Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3

2 Parameter Log Normal

Distribution Analysis: 2 Parameter Log Normal

Distribution Analysis: 2 Parameter Log Normal

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)

Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3

Pearson Type III

Distribution Analysis: Pearson Type III

------------------Summary of Data -----------------------

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)

Log Pearson Typ

Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3

Log Pearson Type III

Distribution Analysis: Log Pearson Type III

Distribution Analysis: Log Pearson Type III

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)

Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3

Gumbel Extremal Type I

Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I

Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I

Fuente: Elaboracin propia

Fuente: Elaboracin propia

Resultado del Anlisis de Regresin:

Intensidades mximas.- Estacin Quillabamba (mm/h)

Intensidades mximas.- Estacin Quillabamba (mm/h)

Hietograma Estacion Quillabamba

Cuadro N12:Caudales mximos Mtodo Racional

Rio Picchu Alto

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