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Climate Change and Agriculture in Pakistan:

Adaptation Strategies to Cope with Negative
Impacts
TECHNICAL REPORT JUNE 2009
DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1547.5041

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Research Report
GCISCRR16

Climate Change and Agriculture in Pakistan:

Adaptation Strategies to Cope with Negative Impacts

M. Mohsin Iqbal, Muhammad Arif Goheer, Humaira Sultana, Sajida Ali Noor, Muhammad
Mudasser , Kashif Majeed Salik, Syed Sajidin Hussain, Arshad M. Khan

June 2009

Global Change Impact Studies Centre

Islamabad, Pakistan

Research Report
GCISC-RR-16

Climate Change and Agriculture in Pakistan:

Adaptation Strategies to Cope with Negative Impacts

Muhammad Mohsin Iqbal, Muhammad Arif Goheer, Humaira Sultana,

Sajida Ali Noor, Muhammad Mudasser, Kashif Majeed Salik, Syed Sajidin Hussain
Arshad Muhammad Khan

June 2009

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)

National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex
Quaid-i-Azam University Campus
P.O. Box 3022, Islamabad, Pakistn

Published by:
Global Change Impact studies Centre (GCISC)
National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex
Quaid-i-Azam University Campus
P.O. Box 3022, Shahdra Road
Islamabad-44000
Pakistan

ISBN: 978-969-9395-15-4

@ GCISC
Copyright. This Report, or any part of it, may not be used for resale or any other
commercial or gainful purpose without prior permission of Global Change Impact Studies
Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan. For educational or non-profit use, however, any part of the
Report may be reproduced with appropriate acknowledgement.

Published in: June 2009

This Report may be cited as follows:

Iqbal, M, M., M.A. Goheer, H. Sultana, S.A. Noor, M. Mudasser, K.M. Salik, S.S.
Hussain and A.M. Khan, (2009), Climate Change and Agriculture in Pakistan:
Adaptation Strategies to Cope with Negative Impacts, GCISC-RR-16, Global Change
Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad, Pakistan

ii

CONTENTS
Foreword .

Preface ii
List of Tables ... iii
List of Figures . iv
1.

Global Climate Change 1

2.

Impacts on Agriculture 2
2.1
2.2

Past/Current impacts....2
Future impacts...........3

3.

Vulnerability of agricultural system to climate change.. ..4

4.

Agriculture in Pakistan ....... 5

5.

Climate Change studies in Pakistan.6

6.

Impacts on crop productivity in Pakistan... 9

7.

Need for adaptation....10

8.

Adaptation studies at GCISC...... 10

Wheat .10
Alterations in sowing windows.....................................................10
Improving irrigation water use efficiency.......................................12
Irrigation scheduling at critical growth stages.. 14
Impacts of climate change and water resources on wheat production.15
Rice.18
Dry sowing vs transplanting ........................................18
Optimization of transplanting dates . .19
9.
10.

Other adaptation options...20

Conclusions ....22
References ..24

FOREWORD
Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) was established in 2002 as a dedicated
research centre for climate change and other global change related studies, at the
initiative of Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, NI, HI, SI , the then Special Advisor to Chief Executive of
Pakistan. The Centre has since been engaged in research on past and projected climate
change in different sub regions of Pakistan, corresponding impacts on the countrys key
sectors, in particular Water and Agriculture, and adaptation measures to counter the
negative impacts.
The work described in this report was carried out at GCISC and was supported in part by
APN (Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research), Kobe, Japan, through its
CAPaBLE Programme under a 3-year capacity enhancement cum research Project titled
Enhancement of national capabilities in the application of simulation models for
assessment of climate change and its impacts on water resources, and food and
agricultural production, awarded to GCISC in 2003 in collaboration with Pakistan
Meteorological Department (PMD).
It is hoped that the report will provide useful information to national planners and
policymakers as well as to academic and research organizations in the country on issues
related to impacts of climate change on Pakistan.
The keen interest and support by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Advisor (S & T) to the Planning
Commission, and useful technical advice by Dr. Amir Muhammed, Rector, National
University for Computer and Emerging Sciences and Member, Scientific Planning
Group, APN, throughout the course of this work are gratefully acknowledged.

Dr. Arshad M. Khan

Executive Director, GCISC

ii
i

PREFACE
This Report contains the work done in the Agriculture Section of Global Change Impact
Studies Centre (GCISC) on the application of Crop Growth Simulation Models, CERESWheat and CERES-Rice, for studying some possible adaptation strategies and identifying
appropriate measures to counter the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural
productivity in Pakistan.
The crop simulation modelling work in Pakistan got an impetus, for the first time, after
organization of an International Workshop by GCISC in Chiang Mai, Thailand, in 2004,
under the framework of a 3-year APN CAPaBLE project (No. 2005-CRP01CMY-Khan),
coordinated by GCISC. The participating countries of the Project were Pakistan,
Bangladesh and Nepal. The Project helped build capacity of scientists from various
organizations in these countries in crop simulation modelling.
The impacts of climate change on the two major cereal crops of Pakistan, namely wheat
and rice, were studied at GCISC using the CERES-Wheat and CERES-Rice models, and
their results reported in Research Reports (GCISC-RR-14 and GCISC-RR-15). It was
found that the yield of wheat will have negative impacts in the northern sub-mountainous
region, southern semi-arid plains and southern arid plains while positive impacts only in
the northern mountainous region. The yield of rice will also face negative impact in the
semi-arid plains. In the light of these studies, efforts were made at GCISC to identify and
analyze some adaptation measures to counter the negative impacts of climate change.
This work and its results are described in this report.
The adaptation strategies studied and described in this Report include: Alteration in
sowing window for wheat; Improving water use efficiency by increasing the number of
irrigations with total quantity of irrigation water remaining the same; Irrigation
scheduling of wheat at critical water-sensitive growth stages; Different method of sowing
of Basmati rice (conventional transplanting vs dry sowing); Optimization of transplanting
dates of rice, etc. Some other possible adaptation measures related to crop, soil, water
use, farm management, and policy improvement were also identified.
Further work on studying other aspects of adaptation using crop simulation models, such
as technological interventions involving better fertilizer usage, irrigation efficiency
improvement, pest and disease control, weed control, and strategies for other major crops
is planned.

iii
ii

List of Tables

Table 1

Farm size in Pakistan

Table 2

DSSAT-based families of crop simulation models

acquired by GCISC

DSSAT-based crop simulation models currently in use

at GCISC

Table 3

Table 4

Growing season length as influenced by temperature and

sowing dates in high-mountainous and sub-mountainous
areas of Pakistan

12

Table 5

Impact of irrigation rescheduling on wheat yield

15

Table 6

Water use efficiency for Transplanting and direct seeding

of rice

18

Yields of transplanted and direct-seeded rice under

different number of irrigations

19

Effect of planting method on growth phases of anthesis

and maturity

19

Simulated grain yields under optimal growing season

20

Table 7

Table 8

Table 9

iii
iv

List of Figures

Figure 1

The simulated wheat yield under nine sowing dates

as influenced by increase in temperature

12

Figure 2

Impact of change in CO2 concentration, temperature

and water availability on wheat yield

Figure 3

Change in wheat area under varying climate and water

supply for sustaining baseline wheat production

17

Optimization of planting date of rice under temperature

and CO2 change

20

Figure 4

iv
v

14

Climate Change and Agriculture in Pakistan:

Adaptation Strategies to Cope with the Negative Impacts
1. Global Climate Change
The climate change is very much happening leading inter alia to global temperature
increases. The Fourth Assessment Report of Inter Governmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) describes that that Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is
evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. They have further
provided data leading to high confidence that warming has been due to the globally
averaged net effect of human activities (IPCC, SPM, WG-I, 2007). The warming has
been more intense during the past decade; 11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank
among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global temperatures (since
1850). The linear warming trend over the last 50 years is nearly twice that for the last 100
years. For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2C per decade is projected for a
range of SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios. Model
experiments showed that even if all radiative forcing agents were held constant at year
2000 level, a further warming trend would occur in the next two decades at a rate of
0.1C per decade.
Global warming is primarily the result of increased Greenhouse Gases (mainly CO2, CH4
and N2O). The small concentrations of these gases within the atmosphere cause warming
of atmosphere by insulating the earth from heat loss like a blanket on our bed. Since the
start of Industrial Revolution in 1750s, the influence of human activities on climate has
picked up tremendously resulting in an increase in the concentration of Greenhouse gases
(GHG) which now far exceed the pre-industrial values (CO2 280 ppm, CH4715 ppb and
N2O 270 ppb, determined by ice cores spanning many thousands of years) to 379 ppm,
1774 ppb and 319 ppb respectively in 2005. Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or
above the current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the
global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those
observed in the 20th century (IPCC, 2007).
Carbon dioxide, among GHGs, is the most important anthropogenic gas. The annual
carbon dioxide concentration growth rate was larger during the last 10 years (1995-2005
average: 1.9 ppm per year) than it had been since the beginning of continuous direct
atmospheric measurements (1960-2005 average: 1.4 ppm per year) although there is year
to year variability in growth rates. For agricultural crops, higher carbon dioxide levels in
the atmosphere may be beneficial as they increase the growth of crops. This is mainly
through their effect on crops photosynthetic process, as higher levels of carbon dioxide
mean that plants absorb more of it a process known as carbon dioxide fertilization. The
increased photosynthetic activity, however, cannot compensate the negative impacts the
higher temperatures are exerting on various ecosystems.

2. Impacts on Agriculture
In developing countries, nearly 70% of people live in rural areas where agriculture is the
largest supporter of livelihood. Growth in agricultural incomes in developing countries
prompts the demand for non-basic goods and services fundamental to human
development. According to FAO (2004), livelihoods of roughly 450 million of the
worlds poorest people are entirely dependent on managed ecosystems including
agriculture. These systems are highly sensitive/vulnerable to climate change. Some of the
key impacts identified by IPCC are listed below.
2.1 Past/Current Impacts
1. Modelling studies suggest crop yield losses with minimal warming in the tropics.
Temperate crops benefit from a small amount of warming (~+2C) but decline
after that.
2. Carbon dioxide fertilization effects increase with warmth but fall once optimal
photosynthetic temperatures are exceeded. The CO2 effect may be relatively
greater, compared to irrigated crops, for crops under moisture stress.
3. Recent results from Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) studies of CO2
fertilization confirm conclusions from TAR that crop yields at 550 ppm CO2
concentration increase by an average of 17% (Long et al. 2004). Crop model
estimates of CO2 fertilization are in the range of FACE results (Tubiello et al.
2006).
4. Crop modelling studies that include extremes in addition to changes in mean
climate show lower yields than for changes in means alone (Porter and Semenov,
2005).
5. Rainfed wheat grown at 450 ppm CO2 showed that yield increases upto 0.8C
warming and then declines beyond 1.5C warming; additional irrigation was
needed to counterbalance the negative effects (Xiao et al. 2005).
6. Potential negative yield impacts are particularly pronounced in several regions
where food security is already challenged and where the underlying natural
resource base is already poor.
7. Climate changes increase irrigation demand in majority of world regions due to
combination of increased evaporation from soil surface and increased
transpiration from plant leaf surface arising from increased temperatures. This
combines with decreased precipitation in some regions and poses a significant
challenge to future food security.
8. There is very high confidence that recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial
biological systems, including such changes as:

earlier timing of spring events, such as leaf unfolding, bird migration and
egg laying
poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species
High temperatures during flowering may lower CO2 fertilizing effect by
reducing grain number, size and quality (Caldwell et al. 2005; Baker et al.
2004; Thomas et al. 2003)

9. The role of pests has become clearer. The poleward spread of diseases and pests
which were previously found at lower latitudes is observed and predicted to
continue. The magnitude of the overall effect is unknown but is likely to be highly
regionalized.
10. Countries with greater wealth and natural resource endowments adapt more
efficiently than those with less.
2.2 Future Impacts
1. Substantial decreases in cereal production potential in Asia could be likely by the
end of this century as a consequence of climate change. However, regional
differences in the response of wheat, maize and rice yields to projected climate
change are likely to be significant (Parry et al. 1999, Rozenweig et al. 2001).
2. Crop simulation modelling studies based on future climate scenarios indicate that
substantial losses are likely in rainfed wheat in South and Southeast Asia (Fischer
at al. 2002). In South Asia, the drop in yields in non-irrigated wheat and rice will
be significant for a temperature increase greater than 2.5C, incurring a loss in
farm level net revenue between 0 and 25% (Kumar and Parekh, 1998). The net
cereal production in South Asian countries is projected to decline at least between
4 to 10% by the end of this century under the most conservative climate change
scenarios (Lal, 2005).
3. Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local
mean temperature increases of upto 1-3C depending on the crop, and then
decrease beyond that in some regions
4. At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry tropical regions, crop productivity is
projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2C), which
would increase risk of hunger.
5. Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases
in local average temperature over a range of 1-3C, but above this it is projected
to decrease.
6. Increase in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to affect local
production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes.
7. Drought affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy precipitation events,
which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment food risk.
8. Adaptations such as altered cultivars and planting times allow low- and mid- to
high-latitude cereal yields to be maintained at or above baseline yields for modest
warming.

3. Vulnerability of agricultural system to climate change

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with,
adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. It is a
function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system, e.g.
agriculture, is exposed, and its sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The vulnerability of
agriculture system to climate change differs across regions and across populations within
regions. Regional differences in baseline climate and expected climate change give rise to
different exposures to climate stimuli. The vulnerability can be exacerbated by the
presence of other stresses. Non-climate stresses can increase vulnerability to climate
change by reducing resilience and can also reduce adaptive capacity because of resource
allocation to competing needs. Vulnerable regions face multiple stresses that affect their
exposure and sensitivity as well as their capacity to adapt. These stresses arise from, for
example, current climate hazard, poverty and unequal access to resources, food
insecurity, trends in economic globalization, conflict and incidence of diseases such as
HIV/AIDS, Malaria, etc.
The productivity of agricultural system is driven by a number of physical, chemical and
biological processes and is affected by inter-annual, monthly and daily distribution of
climate variables, e.g. temperature, radiation, precipitation, water vapour pressure in the
air and wind speed. In some areas, such as hyper arid areas, water resources are already
stressed and are highly vulnerable, with intense competition for water supply. Total
seasonal precipitation as well as its pattern of variability (Olesen and Bindi, 2002) are
both of major importance for agricultural system. Prevailing temperatures determine crop
performance when moisture conditions are met. Similarly, when temperature
requirements are met, the growth of a crop is dependent on how well its growth cycle fits
within the period when water is available. Current vulnerability to climate variability thus
depends not only on exposure and sensitivity to these climatic conditions, but on
resources and institutions and on the capacity to cope with or adapt to changing
conditions including extreme events. It is both hazard- and context-dependent (Brooks, et
al 2005).
The impacts, adaptive capacity and vulnerability may vary from region to region and
even within regions. These differences give rise to key concerns for each region.

4. Agriculture in Pakistan
In Pakistan, agriculture is the mainstay of national economy. It contributes 24% to Gross
Domestic Product (GDP), accounts for 60-70% of countrys exports, provides livelihood
to 68% of the countrys population living in rural areas and employs 42% of the national
labor force. The foremost challenge to agriculture sector is provision of livelihood and
other basic needs of the growing population without irreversibly damaging the fragile
ecosystem. Being open to vagaries of nature, this sector is highly vulnerable to climate
change phenomena. The climate change and variability will impact food and agriculture
due to the effects on plant growth and yield of elevated CO2, higher temperatures, altered
precipitation and transpiration regimes, increased climate variability, as well as modified
weed, pest and pathogen pressure.
The key climate-related vulnerabilities in respect of agriculture sector in Pakistan
include:
Heat stress on crops due to increasing temperatures
Water shortages due to increased evapotranspiration and low rainfall in dry
areas
Erratic and uncertain rainfall pattern
Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events of floods, drought
and cyclones
Lack of general awareness about climate change repercussions
Lack of adaptive capacity to adverse climate impacts due to lack of technical
know how and low financial resources
The communities/regions most vulnerable to climate change in Pakistan are:
Small land holders: 99% of the farmers in Pakistan have land area of 10 hectares
(ha) or less, corresponding to 79% of the farmed area (Table 1).
Table1. Farm size in Pakistan
Farm Size (ha)

% of Farms

Farmed Area (%)

<5

86

44

5-20

13

35

> 20

21

(Source: GoP, 2007).

Farmers in the arid and hyper arid regions: Out of total cultivated area of
Pakistan of 22.51 million ha (mha), 2.5 mha (10%) are semi-arid, 10.7 mha are
arid (48%) and 7.3 mha (32%) are hyper-arid, based on the Aridity Index of
Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC). Province-wise, the dry areas
constitute 23% of the cultivated area of Punjab, 54% of Sindh, and 60% of both
NWFP (North West Frontier Province) and Baluchistan.

Farmers of degraded lands: About 17% of land in Pakistan is prone to water

erosion, 7.6% to wind erosion, 5.1% to water-logging, and 8.6% to salinity and
sodicity. Also, more than 95% of soils are poor in organic matter having less than
1% organic matter content, hence need some sort of external nutrition in the form
of commercial fertilizers or organic manures.
Farmers of mountainous regions: The mountain ecosystems are very fragile as
slight changes in weather parameters can have far reaching effects on their
agriculture, livelihood and food security.
Farmers of coastal area: The coastal areas are at risk of rising sea level in the
wake of global warming as well as of incursion of sea water. The mangrove
reserves in the coastal areas of Karachi are already reported to have declined.
Farmers of deltaic region: In view of inadequate quantities of river water to
repulse the tidal waves in certain years, there can be instances of sea water
intrusion into deltaic region with the consequences of increased salinization of
soil, shortage of fresh drinking water, crop failures or serious losses in crop
yields.

5. Climate change studies in Pakistan

Given that Pakistan has a varied type of climate ranging from sub-zero temperatures in
the north to above 50C in the south, a diversity of ecosystems, and a large farming
sector with a high level of dependence on irrigation, the impact of changing climate on its
society can be wide ranging. The climate change particularly an increase in temperature
with a decrease in precipitation would have negative impacts on the production of major
agricultural commodities. Some of the earlier studies related to climate change
undertaken by Ministry of Environment in collaboration with other national and
international organizations are listed below.
i)

The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy (1992): The report, prepared

by the Government of Pakistan (Environment and Urban Affairs Division) in
collaboration with IUCN-The World Conservation Union and funded by CIDA
(Canadian International Development Agency), provides national perceptions
for planning the development of different sectors of national economy within
the context of a National Environmental Plan. Regarding climate change, the
report stated, that implications for Pakistan could be potentially large, affecting
patterns of agriculture, fisheries and forestry, and that like other countries,
Pakistan needs to consider possible effects of global climate change on its
developmental plans.

ii)

Climate Change in Asia Regional Study on Global Environmental Issues

(1992-1994): The report, supported by funding from Asian Development Bank
(ADB) and finalized in 1994, provided an analysis of Pakistans vulnerability to
climate events and recommended the technical and economic feasibility of
options that could be undertaken to adapt to climate change and also limit GHG
emissions or enhance their sinks. A national response strategy was also
proposed as part of the study (GoP, 2003).

iii)

Asia Least Cost Abatement Strategy (ALGAS): Funded largely by Asian

Development Bank and completed in 1998, ALGAS project involved 12 Asian
nations including Pakistan. The report included the formulation of national
GHG abatement strategies consistent with national development priorities, and
the preparation of a portfolio of GHG abatement projects and national action
plans embodying national development objectives (ALGAS, 1998).

iv)

Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations

Assessment (1996-1998): The study was carried out in implementation of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which
aims at stabilization of GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interferences with the climate system. Pakistan is a
party to this convention. Completed in 1998 through the assistance of GEFUNEP, the study helped assess the impacts of climate change on four major
sectors of economy, namely agriculture, forestry, water resources and
meteorology. In the Agriculture sector, the impact of climate change on spatial
boundaries; growing degree days; growth, yield and water use of wheat, rice
and maize crops was studied in the four climatic zones of Pakistan representing
humid, sub-humid, semi-arid and arid climates. The present climate change
studies in the area of impacts and adaptation have benefited from the work
undertaken in the project (GoP/UNEP/GEF, 1998).

v)

CICERO report on Developing strategies for climate change (2000): The

study mentioned at 5(iii) above was monitored and reviewed continuously by
holding three national Workshops in which national and international experts
provided by CICERO (Centre for International Climate and Environmental
Research, Oslo, Norway) participated. In 2000, CICERO summarized the
results of the above study in a Four-Country Report including Antigua &
Barbuda, Cameroon, Estonia and Pakistan. The report provided a basic
foundation for understanding the potential impacts of climate change and
adaptation measures necessary to address them (CICERO, 2003).

vi)

First National Communication on Climate Change (2003): Having been an

active member of Global Commons, Pakistan signed the UNFCCC in 1992
and ratified the treaty on June 1, 1994. Fulfilling its national obligation as a
signatory to UNFCCC, the Government of Pakistan prepared the First National
Communication on Climate Change in 2003. Although Pakistan contributes
very little to overall global GHG emissions, the report presents a national GHG
inventory and identifies sources and sinks of direct and indirect GHGs. The
GHG inventory preparation builds on the earlier work on inventory undertaken
as part of the ALGAS Project. The report attempts to provide detailed analysis
of issues confronting Pakistan climate change planners (GoP, 2003). The report
was funded by GEF through UNEP.

vii) Establishment of Global Change Impact Studies Centre (2002-03): The

systematic and planned research work related to climate change in Pakistan
became possible after the establishment of Global Change Impact Studies
Centre (GCISC) in 2002-03. The Centre was established at the initiative of Dr.
Ishfaq Ahmad, Special Advisor to Prime Minister of Pakistan. The Centre set
out to study the impacts of climate change on important sectors of national
economy such as Water resources, Agriculture, Food security, Energy,
Environment, Biodiversity, Health, etc. The efforts were bolstered by
approval/award of a 3-year Regional APN CAPaBLE Project in 2003, prepared
by GCISC, by Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan.
Pakistan was the lead country and Nepal and Bangladesh were the two partner
countries. The objective of the Project is to build/enhance national capacities of
the participating countries in the application of Simulation Models for
assessment of climate change and its impacts on water resources, and food and
agricultural production.
Under this Project, the Agriculture Section of GCISC acquired a Decision Support
System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) incorporating a family of crop models,
from Dr. G. Hoogenboom and his group of University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia, USA
(Table 2). Necessary training to selected scientists from the participating countries was
provided by Dr. Hoogenboom during a two-week South Asia Training Workshop on
Crop Simulation Modelling organized by GCISC at Chiang Mai University, Thailand,
from June 28-July 9, 2004.
For the past three years, the Section has done work using some of these models (Table 3)
on assessment of impacts of climate change on productivity of wheat and rice in different
agro-ecological zones of Pakistan. Before actual studies on impacts, the CERES-Wheat
and CERES-Rice models were calibrated and evaluated under local conditions (Iqbal et
al. 2007a and 2007b).

Table 2. DSSAT-based families of crop simulation models acquired by GCISC

Models
CERES (for Cereals)

Crops
Corn, Wheat, Rice, Barley, Sorghum, Millet

CROPGRO (for Grain Legumes Soybean, Peanut, Dry Bean, Chickpea, Cotton
and Fiber crops)
CROPSIM (for Root Crops)

Potato, Cassava

Oilseed Crops
Vegetables
Other Crops

Sunflower
Bell pepper, Cabbage, Tomato
Sugarcane, Pasture

Table 3. DSSAT based crop simulation models currently in use at GCISC

Crop

Crop Model

Use at GCISC

Wheat

CERES-Wheat

In use

Rice
Potato
Cotton

CERES-Rice
SUBSTOR-Potato
Cotton-GRO

In use
Being tested
Being tested

The researchers in Agriculture Section then studied impacts of changing climate on major
crops of Pakistan. They studied current effects of increasing temperature and Carbon
dioxide levels on growing season length and yields of wheat and rice, using CERESWheat and CERES-Rice models (Iqbal, et al. 2007a and 2007b). They are also studying
likely future impacts of rising temperatures, in the wake of global warming, under IPCCSRES A2 and B2 scenarios developed by GCISC for Pakistan from an ensemble of 17
GCMs (Islam, 2007). For wheat, the studies encompassed four agro-climatic zones, viz
humid, sub-humid, semi-arid and arid areas of Pakistan, and for rice, semi-arid areas of
Pakistan.

6. Impacts on crop productivity in Pakistan

The impacts of climatic parameters on wheat and rice productivity in Pakistan have been
described in detail in two separate reports prepared by GCISC under APN CAPaBLE
project (Iqbal et al., 2007a and 2007b). A list of these impacts has been mentioned here in
relation to possible adaptation measures.

For wheat, the impact of increasing temperature on growing season length was
studied in Northern mountainous region (represented by Shangla district, near
Gilgit), Northern sub-mountainous region (represented by Islamabad district),
Southern semi-arid plains (represented by Faisalabad district) and Southern arid
plains (represented by Bahawalpur district) using CERES-Wheat model. The
results showed that increase in temperature resulted in reduction in growing
season length in all the regions but at a faster rate in the Mountainous region
compared to arid and semiarid plains.

The impact on yield of wheat, of rise in temperature in the same regions, showed
that yield increased in the mountainous region but decreased in the submountainous, arid and semi-arid regions.

The increase in CO2 concentration was found to have a positive effect on yield in
all the regions, due to CO2 fertilization effect.

With the increase of ambient CO2 to 550 ppm as compared to the current level of
380 ppm, the baseline wheat yield in the arid and semi-arid plains could be
sustained for temperature increases upto 3C. In the mountainous areas, the wheat

yield at 550 ppm CO2 concentration will be higher than the base yield upto 5C
increase in temperature.

For rice, the impact of increase in temperature on growing season length and yield
was studied in Semi-arid plains of Punjab, Pakistan (Sheikhupura district) using
CERES-Rice model. The results showed that with rise in temperature by 1 and
5C over baseline temperature, the growing season length was reduced, from108
days to 102 and 89 days, respectively.

Regarding grain yield of rice, the rise in temperature at the ambient CO2 level of
360 ppm resulted in a decreasing trend. Increasing the CO2 level to 550 ppm, on
the other hand, increased yield.
Due to the combined effect of temperature and CO2 , the baseline rice yield could
be sustained for temperature increases upto 1C provided the ambient CO2
concentration level were to increase from 360 to 550 ppm.

7. Need for Adaptation

The GCISC studies cited above as well as numerous other studies reported in literature,
point to the negative effects of increase in global temperature on crop productivity
resulting in possible production shortfalls. The magnitude of increase in temperature may
vary from region to region and country to country. The effects may be direct or indirect.
The direct effects range from reduction in yield, shortening of growing cycle of plants,
sensitivity of reproductive growth stages to heat stress, increased evapotranspiration
leading to increased crop water requirements, volatilization losses of surface-applied
fertilizer nutrients, surge in insect pests and disease incidence after heavy rain spells, etc.
The indirect effects include temporary or permanent excess or shortage of water supplies,
and development of biological/physical processes in the soil profile exerting injurious
effects on crop health, e.g. water-logging which may lead to salinization of soil,
denitrification which may lead to losses of nitrogenous fertilizers, anoxic conditions
which may lead to unavailability of certain nutrients, etc. Such negative effects call for
some urgent coping mechanisms or adaptation measures to counter them.

8. Adaptation Studies at GCISC

Adaptation refers to adjustment in natural or human system in response to actual or
expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderate harm or exploit beneficial
opportunities. Various types of adaptations can be distinguished; e.g. anticipatory or
reactive, private or public, and autonomous or planned.
8.1

Wheat

8.1.1 Alterations in sowing window

In the wake of global warming, the dry arid areas are likely to experience
vulnerability of sensitive growth stages of wheat to high temperatures causing drastic
10

reduction in yields whereas the colder mountainous areas are likely to benefit from
rising temperatures as low temperature is the key stress in these areas. Aslam et al
(2004) stated that analysis of historical climate data offered an opportunity for
improvements in the wheat planting window and selection of wheat varieties
accordingly. Keeping this in view, the option of change in sowing window was tried
to evade the negative effects of high/low temperature on wheat yields in different
agro ecological zones of the country and also to assess suitability of sowing date for
timely sowing of next crop in the wheat based cropping pattern.
st

Nine sowing dates starting from 1 week of October to last week of December at 10-

day interval were tried for wheat sowing in the mountainous and sub-mountainous
areas. The simulation results showed that in the high-mountainous area, yields
improved with an increase in temperature and a shift towards earlier planting from the
current optimum planting date. Freezing temperatures (<0C) prevail in December at
high mountainous areas, so germination of wheat seed for which minimum biological
threshold is 5C (Hunsigi and Krishan, 1998; Balasubramaniyan and Planiappan,
2001) is difficult. In the sub-mountainous area, on the other hand, increase in
temperature depressed crop yield mainly due to an accelerated rate of development
and shorter growing cycle, and shift towards delayed planting improved yield.

4500

4000

Baseline
o
1 C
o
2 C
o
3 C
o
4 C
o
5 C

High-mountain area

-1

Sub-mountain area
3000

2500

2000

1500

10
O
ct
.
2
0
O
ct
.
30
O
ct
.
10
N
o
v.
2
0
N
ov
.
30
N
o
v.
1
0
D
ec
.
20
D
ec
.
30
D
ec
.

1
0O
ct
20
-O
ct
3
0O
ct
1
0N
ov

1000

20
-N
ov
3
0N
ov
10
-D
e
c
20
-D
ec
30
-D
e
c

Y
ie
ld(K
gh
a)

3500

Sowing windows

Figure 1: The simulated wheat yield under nine sowing dates as influenced by
increase in temperature.

The data on Growing Season Length showed that as the sowing was delayed by 10
days, the growing season length (GSL) decreased on the average by 6 days (Table 4)
while within each sowing date, the CERES-Wheat model estimated a decrease in
GSL of 10 days per unit rise in temperature. Further, an average decrease of 10 days
was noticed in the high-mountainous areas and of 6 days in the sub-mountainous
areas. The maximum decrease occurred in December 30-sowing.

11

Table 4. Growing season length (days after sowing), as influenced by temperature and
sowing dates, in high-mountainous and sub-mountainous areas of Pakistan.

Temperature 10scenarios
Oct
Baseline
263
1C
250
2C
239
3C
229
4C
220
5C
211
av.
diff.
within
a
sowing date
-10
av. of av.
Diff.

a) High-mountainous areas
Growing season length (days after sowing)
Sowing windows
301020301020Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Dec
Dec
257
252
246
239
231
224
243
239
232
226
218
211
232
227
221
215
207
201
221
217
211
205
198
192
212
208
202
196
190
184
204
199
194
188
182
176

20Oct
259
246
234
225
216
207

-10

-11

-11

-11

-10

-10

av. diff.
within a
temp.
scenario

30Dec
215
203
193
184
176
169

-10

-6
-6
-6
-6
-5
-5

av.
of
av.
diff.

-6

-9

-10

b) Sub-mountainous areas

Temperature 10scenarios
Oct
Baseline
174
1C
167
2C
159
3C
151
4C
143
5C
134
av. diff. within
a sowing date
av. of av. Diff.

Growing season length (Days after sowing)

Sowing windows
301020301020Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Dec
Dec
169
165
161
156
151
145
162
159
155
150
145
139
156
152
149
144
140
134
149
146
144
139
135
129
142
141
138
134
130
125
136
134
133
129
126
121

20Oct
172
165
157
150
143
136
-8

-7

-6

-6

-6

-5

-5

av. diff.
within a
temp.
scenario

30Dec
138
133
129
124
120
116
-5

-5
-4
-4
-3
-3
-2
-4

-6

Improving irrigation water use efficiency

Considering the future outlook of reduced surface water availability in the long run,
applying additional water by increasing number of irrigation would not be a possible

12

av.
of
av.
diff.

-3

adaptation measure to offset the negative impact of temperature rise in semi-arid and
arid areas of Pakistan. Therefore, the option of increasing the number of irrigations
without increasing the baseline quantity of 225 mm water was tested by using
CERES-Wheat simulation model.
The baseline yield achieved by applying 225 mm water in 3 irrigations was compared
with yields obtained from application of 150 mm water in 2 irrigations and 300 mm
water in 4 irrigations with rise in temperature (1 to 50C) at 360 and 550 ppm CO2
concentration levels. The results are shown in Figure 2. It was found that reduction in
water (150 mm in 2 irrigations) would not be able to sustain baseline wheat yield at
any temperature and at any of the two CO2 concentration levels, in both semi-arid and
arid areas. In case of application of increased water in 4 irrigations, wheat yield could
be sustained at 10C increase in temperature at 360 ppm CO2 concentration, however,
if CO2 level increases from 360 to 550 ppm, the baseline wheat yield can be sustained
up to 3C establishing the combined beneficial impact of rise in CO2 and irrigation
water on wheat yield.
In other words, decreasing the quantity and frequency of irrigation water applied
would depress the yield while increasing the amount of water applied in more
frequent irrigations could help in sustaining baseline wheat yield in case of
temperature increase. These results are in line with that of Hussain et al. (2003) and
Hussain et al. (2005).

13

(a)
Se mi Arid Are as
Yield (kg/ha)

Yield (kg/ha)

5000

(b)
Arid Areas

4000

4000
3000
2000
1000

3000
2000
1000
0

0
1

2
3
4
5
Tem pe rature Increas e (C)

Yield (kg/ha)

5000
4000

2
3
4
5
Tem pe rature Increas e (C)

(c)
Overall (Semi Arid and Arid
Areas)

3000
2000
1000
0
1

2
3
4
5
Temperature Increase (C)
4irri_360ppm
2 irri_360ppm
4irri_550ppm

2 irri_550ppm

Figure 2: Impact of change in CO2 concentration, temperature, and water availability on

wheat yield
Irrigation scheduling at critical growth stages
Under the scenario of shortage of water supplies in the arid and semi-arid areas,
the option of increasing the number of irrigations without increasing the total
quantity of irrigation water during the growing season, i.e., 225 mm, was tested.
The results are presented in Table 5.
Increasing the number of irrigations to five (45 mm water per irrigation) instead
of three (75 mm water per irrigation) had positive impact on wheat yield at 360
ppm CO2 concentration level. It helped sustain the baseline yields up to 3 and 50C
increase in temperature in semi-arid and arid areas, respectively. On overall basis,
the baseline yield might be sustained upto 40C increase in temperature at 360 ppm
CO2 level. It is due to the reason that wheat is sensitive to water stress at the
critical stages, viz., crown root initiation, tillering, late jointing, flowering and
dough. For experiencing maximum yield, it requires non-stress conditions
especially at these stages. Application of irrigation at each critical stage would
result in dramatic increase in wheat yield by minimizing/removing water stress
during production process.

14

By increasing CO2 concentration from 360 to 550 ppm, the wheat yield showed
an upward surge in arid areas in case of 5 irrigations as compared to baseline
yield (Table 5). This may be attributed to beneficial double fertilization effect of
high CO2 concentration which improved water use efficiency also (Dang et al,
2007). Under the present conditions, the baseline yield was sustained up to 50C
increase in temperature.
These results corroborate the findings that by eliminating or minimizing water
stress at critical growth stages by rescheduling irrigations, wheat yield might be
improved significantly (Mogenson et al., 1985; Zhang et al., 1999). Moreover,
irrigation rescheduling coupled with rise in CO2 concentration to 550 ppm might
sustain baseline wheat yield up to 50C increase in temperature in the semi-arid
and arid areas of Punjab, Pakistan. Thus, irrigation rescheduling might be an
effective adaptation strategy for offsetting the negative impact of wheat yield
under changing climatic conditions (English and Nakamura, 1989; Fredrick,
1997).
Table 5: Impact of irrigation rescheduling (5 irrigations of 45 mm each instead of 3
irrigations of 75 mm each, with no change in total water applied) on wheat yield.
The yield values given (kg/ha) are from the application of five irrigations. The
percentage differences from the respective Baseline yields from three irrigations
are given in parentheses.

Temperature
( C)
1
2
3
4
5

Semi Arid
CO2 Level (ppm)
360
550
4441
5077
(24.60)
(42.44)
4096
4699
(14.92)
(31.86)
3715
4294
(4.23)
(20.49)
3395
3933
(-4.74)
(10.35)
3191
3706
(-10.47)
(3.99)

Arid
CO2 Level (ppm)
360
550
3467
4159
(52.73)
(83.20)
3133
3783
(38.00)
(66.66)
2816
3435
(24.05)
(51.32)
2590
3197
(14.10)
(40.83)
2424
3031
(6.78)
(33.54)

Overall
CO2 Level (ppm)
360
550
3856
4526
(38.37)
(62.39)
3518
4150
(26.22)
(48.89)
3175
3779
(13.94)
(35.58)
2912
3491
(4.49)
(25.27)
2731
3301
(-2.02)
(18.46)

Impact of Change in Climate and Water Resources on Wheat Production

Level of wheat production depends on the yield per hectare as well as the area
under wheat cultivation. Any reduction in wheat yield or area would result in
reduced production. The results of various simulation runs by DSSAT based

15

CERES-wheat model with 3 irrigations at ambient (360 ppm) CO2 level suggest
that wheat yield would decline with rise in temperature though the simultaneous
rise in CO2 concentration might offset this decline to some extent. This reduction
in the wheat yield at higher temperature would consequently be translated in to
reduced production compared to baseline production. As the sustenance of
baseline production level is indispensable, a rise in wheat area cultivated is
inevitable in case of future climate change. The extent of additional area needed
to sustain the baseline production level was estimated for semi arid, arid, and
overall basis for varying temperature rise, CO2 concentration levels, and for 3
irrigations and 5 irrigations without change in total water applied as shown in
Figure 3.
The results show that at 360 ppm CO2 concentration level and with 3 irrigations
(225 mm of total water applied), 9-50 % increase in wheat area is necessary for
sustaining the baseline production level in semi arid areas at a temperature rise of
1-5 0C (Figure 3a). Corresponding expected increases in wheat area for arid areas
and overall basis are estimated as 11-45% and 10-48% shown in Figure 3(c) and
3(e), respectively.
However, at 550 ppm CO2 concentration level, if same quantity of irrigation
water is applied (225 mm) in 5 irrigations instead of 3, the change in area (Figure
3a) from the baseline area needed to sustain the production in semi arid areas will
be -20 to +5% for a temperature rise of 1 to 5C (Fig. 3a). The negative sign
indicates that 20 percent less area is required for sustaining the current production
level by applying 5 irrigations instead of 3 irrigations to wheat crop. In other
words, cultivating the area producing baseline yield would result into surplus
wheat grain production with 5 irrigations. The reduction in area could only be
possible due to significantly higher yield obtained in case of applying 5
irrigations, one at each critical stage (Table 4). The corresponding estimates for
arid areas and overall basis are -35 to -12% and -28 to -4% for 1-5 0C increase in
temperature as shown in Figure 2(c) and 2(e).
At increased level of CO2 concentration of 550 ppm, the estimated wheat area
needed to sustain the baseline production for semi-arid areas, arid areas, and
overall basis reduced significantly for 3 and 5 irrigations at 1-50C increase in
temperature, as shown in Figure 2(b, d and f). This is because of double
fertilization effect of high CO2 concentration which tends to lower the use of
irrigation water and increases the wheat yield significantly

16

(b): Sem i Arid Are as (CO2=550ppm )

a):Se m i Arid Areas (CO2=360ppm )

1C
2

1C
2
1

5C

5C

2C

4C

3C

3 Irrigations

4C

1C
2
1

5C

2C

2C
0

4C

3C

3 Irrigations

3 Irrigations

5 Irrigations

(f): Overall (Arid and Se m i Arid Areas )

(CO2=550ppm )
1C
2
1

5C

2C

2C

4C

3C

3 Irrigations

5 Irrigations

(e): Ove rall (Arid and Sem i Arid Are as)

(CO2=360ppm )
1C
2
5C

5 Irrigations

(d): Arid Are as (CO2=550ppm )

1C
2

4C

3C

3 Irrigations

5 Irrigations

(c): Arid Are as (CO2=360ppm )

5C

2C

4C

3C

3 Irrigations

5 Irrigations

3C
5 Irrigations

Figure 3: Changes in wheat area under varying climate and water supply for sustaining
Baseline wheat production. The black polygons with solid lines represent existing
wheat area under baseline climatic conditions with three irrigations. The green
polygons with long dotted lines represent required area under temperature
changes with three irrigations; the red polygons inside solid line polygons
represent required wheat area under temperature change and with five irrigations.
For sustaining the baseline wheat production, changes in the requisite wheat area to the
tune of -17 to +19% are required on overall basis for temperature increases of 1-5 0C with
3 irrigations. Corresponding estimates for semi-arid and arid areas are -15 to 25% and -19
to 13%, respectively. With 5 irrigations, surplus wheat production could be achieved with
the baseline wheat area.
17

Rice
In order to economize on water for growing of rice, which is a high water requiring crop
(1200-1800 mm), the following studies were carried out:
8.2.1

Dry sowing vs transplanting

Rice is a high delta crop hence sensitive to declining water availability. With
increasing water scarcity, alternate methods of establishing rice that require less labor
and water without sacrificing yield are needed. Soomro (2004) reported that research
on water saving crop establishment technologies such as direct seeding, bed planting
etc., revealed that significantly lesser amount of water was used in direct seeding
compared to conventional method of random transplanting.
The feasibility of dry seeding under semi arid conditions of Punjab province, Pakistan
was assessed by comparing its yield performance with the yield of transplanted rice
using the CERES-Rice model. The results (Table 6) showed that Direct Dry Seeding
of rice offered a useful opportunity for improving water use efficiency (WUE).
Table 6. Water Use Efficiency for Transplanting and Direct seeding of Rice
Locations

Water Use Efficiency for Water Use Efficiency for

Transplanted rice (kg/m3) Direct
seeded
rice
(17 irrigations)
(kg/m3) (13 irrigations)

Faisalabad

2.91

3.68

Sheikhupura

3.10

3.82

The WUE was increased from 2.91 to 3.68 kg/m3 by direct seeding in Faisalabad
district and from 3.10 to 3.82 kg/m3 in Sheikhupura districts, by reducing the water
inflow requirements during land preparation and transplanting, thus conserving about
25% of irrigation water. The pattern of paddy yields was however not consistent and
clear (Table 7) .
This offers an opportunity to reduce water supply to rice from 1300 mm (17
irrigations of 75 mm each) to 975 mm (13 irrigations of 75 mm each), thus saving
325 mm water by shifting from transplanting to direct seeding. A further reduction in
water supply to 675 mm (9 irrigations of 75 mm each) by direct seeding could not
prove to be a wise practice because a significant loss in yield (P<5%) occurred. Mann
et al. (2004) reported that 25% of water could be saved through direct seeding of rice
compared to conventional (puddled transplanting) method.

18

Table 7. Yields of Transplanted and Direct-seeded Rice for different number of

irrigations.
No. of
Irrigations a

Faisalabad

Sheikhupura

Transplanting Direct Seeding

17

3787

3685

Transplanting Direct
Seeding
4036
3869

13

3210

3592

3495

3728

2765

2750

3049

2980

a The amount of water per irrigation was 75 mm.

Early maturity of crop through direct seeding was also manifested by the model
results (Table 8). The anthesis occurred two days earlier at Faisalabad and
Sheikhupura whereas the maturity was seven days earlier due to direct seeding.
Table 8. Effect of Planting Methods on Growth Phases of Anthesis and Maturity
No. of Irrigations

Days to Anthesis

Days to Maturity

Faisalabad

Sheikhupura

Faisalabad

Sheikhupura

17(Transplanted
Rice)

67

67

106

106

13(Direct Seeded
Rice)

65

65

99

99

8.2.2 Optimization of transplanting date

Global warming is one of the most influencing factors impacting the world food
production and most countries are trying to adapt to this change. Rice is the second
staple crop of Pakistan; the paddy yield per unit area is highly dependent on the
method of sowing and time of planting. The optimal planting dates for Basmati
Super, an aromatic fine-grain cultivar, were determined for the semi-arid areas of
Punjab, Pakistan, under temperature increases of 1 to 5C. The results (Figure 4)
showed that the optimal planting dates span between 20th June and 20th July under the
ambient temperature and carbon dioxide levels. The simulated grain yields under
above mentioned optimal growing season varied from 4.2 to 4.3t/ha.

19

Optimization of planting date of rice under

Temperature & CO2 change
5000
4000
Yield
3000

yield at 20th Jun

yield at 5th Jul
yield at 20th Jul

2000

yield at 5th Aug

1000
0
1

Temperature
Figure 4: Optimization of planting date of rice under temperature and CO2 change

The rice yield increased by 3 % under 20th July transplanting as compared to 5th July
transplanting (Table 9). The corresponding growing season length, however will
increase from 110 to 114 days which might disturb timely wheat sowing, hence 5th
July transplanting is advised under prevalent climatic conditions. Further delay in
transplanting beyond 20th July decreased rice yields by 1%. Late transplanting (20th
July) can serve as an adaptation strategy to sustain baseline yield under temperature
rise up to 2C at CO2 level of 550 ppm provided other management practices
employed are kept the same (Table 9).
Table 9. Simulated grain yields under optimal growing season.

Temperature(C)
above Baseline,
at 550 ppm CO2
level
20-Jun
Baseline
4614

Yield (kg/ha) with transplanting dates

05-Jul
4601

20-Jul
4730

05-Aug
4645

4411

4400

4521

4377

4088

4077

4176

3987

3715

3697

3747

3602

3327

3288

3324

3194

2947

2885

2854

2745

9. Other possible adaptation options

The other possible adaptations options, besides those mentioned above, to counter the
adverse impacts of global warming and related specifically to crops, soils, water,
20

management practices, etc in the agriculture sector are listed below. Some of these
options may be inter-related or overlapping with other areas.
Crop related:
Development of heat tolerant crop varieties
Development of short duration varieties
Development of drought tolerant varieties
Shifting of crop boundaries to suitable habitats
Changes in cropping patterns e.g. inclusion of legumes in all-cereal cropping
pattern, inclusion of deep-rooted crops in the cropping pattern
Effective weed control
Replacement of high water requiring crops with low water requiring crops
Changing of planting time to avoid heat stress or shortage of water (discusses
above)
Crop insurance
Soil related:
Soil mulching to suppress evaporation and to lower soil temperature
Crop residue incorporation into soil to increase organic matter content and to
conserve soil moisture
Minimum tillage practices as a soil moisture conservation measure
Deep planting in rainfed areas during pre-rainy season as a soil moisture
conservation measure
Improvement of soil drainage to prevent soil degradation due to development of
maladies like water-logging and salinity, to prevent denitrification losses from
applied nitrogenous fertilizers in the form of Nitrous oxide
Water use related:
Increasing crop water use efficiency by adapting to high efficiency irrigation
practices, such as Drip, Sprinkler and Pitcher irrigation; Sub-surface irrigation
channels in hot areas like Karez in Balochistan
Integrating irrigation with water-sensitive growth stages of crops
Managing available water quantities by spreading into greater number of
irrigations, withholding irrigation or applying lesser amounts of water at lesssensitive growth stages of the crop
Planned use of groundwater for irrigation, to avoid soil degradation due to bad
quality of groundwater, to avoid depletion of natural aquifer
Water resources related:
Development of new water resources
Increasing storage capacity to store water from flash floods, e.g. hill torrents, from
water sheds and slopes
Tapping God-gifted fresh water, i.e. rainfall harvesting, rooftop harvesting
Lining of water channels to avoid seepage losses and development of waterlogging/salinity

21

Farm Management related:

Encouragement of crop culture with minimal tillage (reduced tillage) or without
tillage (no-till)
Reduction of reliance on agro-chemicals (pesticides, weedicides, commercial
synthetic fertilizers, etc.)
Composting of kitchen refuse, farmyard refuse and other organic materials into
valuable organic fertilizer
Storing and handling the farmyard manures in solid rather than liquid form to
suppress methane emissions, production of biogas
Rice cultivation by practices that save water without sacrificing yield such as
direct dry sowing, which will also suppress methane emissions
Policy Improvement
Changes in policies and institutions may be needed to facilitate adaptation to
climate change. These may include greater investments in participatory research,
infrastructure, capacity building, risk management, improved product storage and
markets. The cost of implementing these adaptations may be shared with other policy
initiatives such as trade policy, investment in research and development.

10. Conclusions
The GCISC studies cited above, as well as many other studies reported in
literature, point to the negative effects of increase in global temperature on crop
productivity in Pakistan resulting in possible production shortfalls. In general, the
increase in temperature would result in shrinkage of crop growth cycle of wheat and rice
in their respective ecozones. The yield of wheat, except in the northern mountainous
region, is also likely to decrease in the northern sub-mountainous, semi-arid plains and
arid plains. The Basmati rice yield would also decrease in the semi-arid plains of central
Punjab province. Because of the increased evapotranspiration at higher temperatures, the
overall water demands of the agriculture crops will also increase significantly
necessitating greater supply of irrigation water. The magnitude of increase in temperature
causing these changes may vary from region to region. At the same time, the
vulnerability of the agriculture crops to extreme climate events (floods, droughts,
cyclones etc) will increase as the frequency and intensity of such events increases. All
this calls for well planned systematic efforts to develop and make use of appropriate
adaptation strategies to counter/mitigate the negative impact of climate change.
Some probing studies carried out at GCISC, using crop simulation model CERES,
suggest that drop in crop yields of wheat and rice due to increase in temperature could be
diminished to certain extent by altering the sowing dates in such a way that sowing is
advanced to cooler part of the growing season in the hot areas. In order to avert the
harmful effects of high temperature on wheat yield, the quantities of available irrigation
water could be spread to five irrigations, synchronizing with the water-sensitive growth
stages, instead of three keeping the total amount of water the same. Similarly, under
22

water-sufficient conditions, the water productivity of wheat under the prevalent three
irrigations (optimum) could be compared with four (super-optimum) or two (suboptimum) irrigations keeping the amount of water per irrigation the same. Considerable
amounts of water could be saved by changing the method of rice sowing from the
conventional transplanting of seedling in the standing water to dry sowing like in wheat,
provided the yield is not sacrificed. Another adaptation strategy which could allow time
to the national planners and the farming community to adjust is the development of more
accurate seasonal forecasts. Some of these options are currently being studies at GCISC.

23

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Baker, A.C., C.J. Starger, T.R. McClanahan and P.W. Glyn 2004. Coral adaptive
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Balasubramaniyan, P. and S. P. Palaniappan 2001. Principles and Practices of Agronomy,
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Tompkins, eds. Special issue of Global Environmental Change 15, 151162.
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Global Change Impact Studies Centre

(GCISC)
Global change science is being aggressively pursued around the world. The Global
Change Impact Studies Centre was created in May 2002 to initiate this multidisciplinary
effort in Pakistan. The main objective of the Centre is to comprehend the phenomenon of
global change, scientifically determine its likely impacts on various socio-economic
sectors in Pakistan and develop strategies to counter the adverse effects, if any. Another
function of the Centre is to establish itself as a national focal point for providing cohesion
to global change related activities at the national level and for linking it with international
global research. An important function of the Centre is to help develop manpower that is
capable of studying and participating in the international effort to study the global change
phenomenon. The Centre also works to increase the awareness of the public, the
scientific community and the policy planners in the country to global change.

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)

National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex
Quaid-i-Azam University Campus
P.O. Box 3022, Islamabad
Pakistan
Telephone: (+92-51)-9230226-8, 2077386
Fax: (+92-51)-2077385
e-mail: gcisc@comsats.net.pk
web: www.gcisc.org.pk

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