Going nuclear?

Iran and North Korea are the two

most visible--but not the only--threats in an age
when it has become easier to build and hide
nuclear weapons. How will President Bush
respond?
Author: Sanger, David E.
Article Type: Cover Story
Geographic Code: 1USA
Date: Jan 24, 2005
Words: 2143
Publication: New York Times Upfront
ISSN: 1525-1292

During the Cold War, teachers used to drill their classes on how to survive a nuclear attack,
getting them to "duck and cover" under their desks. It was a ridiculous exercise: A school desk
does not provide much protection against the fearsome power of a nuclear bomb, much less
against the radiation it leaves in its wake. But at least then the teachers knew who the enemy
was: the Soviet Union.

Now, it's a more complicated world. The United States is the sole superpower, and Russia's
nuclear arsenal seems more a quaint artifact than a direct threat. But some of Russia's nuclear
materials are so poorly guarded that there is fear they could fall into the hands of America's
current enemies, including Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups.

The scientist who made Pakistan a nuclear power in the 1980s and '90s, Abdul Qadeer Khan,
went into business for himself and started selling nuclear technology to Iran, North Korea, and
Libya, and perhaps to other countries that have not yet been found out. Khan even sold Libya the
blueprints for an old but reliable bomb design.

It's not yet time to get back under the desk, but the problem is growing more and more pressing.
"People understood the old Cold War threat," says Robert Einhorn, a nuclear-proliferation
specialist who spent years working on the issue at the State Department. "They don't yet
understand the new threat because it comes from a lot of different places."

'AXIS OF EVIL'

The most immediate threats are two of the countries that President Bush once called part of an
"Axis of Evil": North Korea and Iran. Both countries have seen America's troubles in Iraq (the third
"Axis" country) as an opportunity to push ahead with their nuclear programs, figuring that once
they have nuclear arms, the U.S. would never risk attacking them the way it invaded Iraq. That
poses a challenge to America and the rest of the world: What is the President going to do about it
in his second term? What can he do about it?

Bush has said that he will rely on diplomacy, not military force, to disarm both countries. The
reality is that he doesn't have a choice: Iran and North Korea are far more powerful than Iraq ever
was, and have ways of striking back that Saddam Hussein could only dream about. If the U.S.
attempted to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, for instance, the country could shoot missiles at
Israel or at U.S. forces in the Middle East, including Iraq. And while no one doubts that the U.S.
could swiftly win a war with North Korea, that country could destroy Seoul, South Korea's capital,
only 35 miles from the North Korean border, which is heavily fortified with American troops.
A NEW AND DANGEROUS ERA

If North Korea and Iran are allowed to build and hold nuclear weapons, other countries are likely
to follow, making the world much more dangerous. We may, in fact, be on the leading edge of a
new era in which more and more countries race to get nuclear weapons which are a lot easier to
design, build, and hide than they were years ago.

Right now there are five "declared" nuclear states: the U.S., Russia, China, Great Britain, and
France. The U.S. was the first to develop nuclear weapons and the only one to use them in war--
destroying the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, near the end of World War II,
and killing an estimated 200,000 people. Between the late 1940s and 1964, the other four got the
bomb, but have never used it. And ever since the Cold War ended, the U.S. and Russia have
been reducing the size of their nuclear arsenals, which grew so big that each could blow up the
other--and the world--many times over.

To keep nuclear weapons from spreading, other nations signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty, agreeing never to build their own weapons--as long as the rest of the world helped them
use peaceful nuclear technology to produce electric power. But three of the countries that refused
to sign the treaty--Israel, Pakistan, and India--each sped ahead with nuclear programs, and now
they have nuclear arsenals, though their governments have not officially acknowledged them
under the terms of the nonproliferation treaty. They are the "undeclared" states.

Soon, they may have company. While some countries raced to build nuclear weapons and then
gave their projects up--South Africa and Libya, for example--many others are still trying, and no
doubt watching closely how the United States handles North Korea and Iran.

North Korea is a strange throwback to the age of Communism--a place cut off from modernity,
with no freedom of movement, a dying economy, and a dictatorial leader who throws opponents
into prison camps. The Korean War officially ended in an armistice in 1953, but North Korea and
South Korea are still not at peace and thousands of U.S. troops remain in South Korea as a
protective force.

The CIA thinks North Korea secretly built one or two nuclear weapons in the early 1990s, before
signing a deal with President Clinton to "freeze" activity at the country's main nuclear site. In
2002, the U.S. caught North Korea cheating on the agreement, though the North claims the U.S.
didn't fulfill its promise to provide oil and nuclear power plants to help its impoverished economy.

American and South Korean intelligence services believe the North bought equipment from
Pakistan to develop weapons from enriched uranium. Confronted with the evidence by the U.S.,
the North Koreans dropped out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and threw international
inspectors out of the country. More than two years later, it seems likely--but is still unproven--that
the North has built up to six more weapons.

U.S. RESPONSE

Iran is an Islamic state, run by mullahs (Muslim clerics) who have for years called America "the
Great Satan." Unlike in North Korea, there is a reform movement in Iran, fueled by young people
who aspire to far more freedom. But Iran's leaders, like North Korea's, think nuclear weapons will
keep America from invading.

Iran also bought equipment from Pakistan, and it, too, got caught--by American intelligence
services and the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations organization that
monitors whether countries abide by their promise not to make nuclear weapons. The Iranians
are still a few years away from producing a weapon--they are still making the ingredients, most
experts believe.
What can be done about these threats?

In the case of North Korea, the Bush administration is privately considering seeking a "grand
bargain," whereby North Korea would drop its nuclear arms program in return for security
guarantees, energy, and investments.

On Iran, President Bush's team has been divided. Some in the administration want to negotiate
with Iran's leaders, while others put their hopes on forcing out the mullahs, along with the
hardliners in the Iranian military, who believe Iran needs nuclear weapons because Israel has
them. (Israel could render any negotiations moot if it decided to attack Iran's nuclear sites, just as
it destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981.)

In November, pressed by European nations, the Iranians offered to halt production of nuclear
material for a while, but said they won't stop for good. "This right is enshrined in the
nonproliferation treaty and we will not give it up," said Iran's President, Mohammad Khatami.

So the test for the next term is what President Bush meant when he said last year he would not
"tolerate" a nuclear North Korea or a nuclear Iran. But he has never said what he means by
"tolerate." Does that mean he is willing to do whatever it takes to disarm North Korea, as he did in
Iraq? That he will use his second term to tighten sanctions against the two countries? So far, he
won't say, and the problem won't go away.
Nuclear Nations

DECLARED STATES

1 China
2 France
3 Great Britain
4 Russia
5 United States

UNDECLARED STATES

1 India
2 Israel
3 Pakistan

SUSPECTED PROGRAMS

1 Iran
2 North Korea