Professional Documents
Culture Documents
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
9 September 2015
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
FY18 as the business builds on its cult status and unassailable market
position. CV volumes too are expected to post a healthy 19% CAGR as benefits
from a cyclical demand recovery and premium launches kick in. Valuations are
appealing and the recent correction offers a good entry point for investors.
Mihir Jhaveri
+91 22 6766 3459
mihir.jhaveri@religare.com
Siddharth Vora
Royal Enfield (RE) remains a cult brand: Over the years, RE has built a powerful brand
image in the lifestyle/cruiser biking segment that remains unmatched by any other
mass segment player, as evidenced by its 96% market share. We expect RE volumes
to more than double from 0.3mn units in CY14 to 0.77mn in FY18, well on course to
reaching 1mn units in the next 4-5 years, as (a) the median age of RE buyers shifts
from the early 30s to the early 20s (the upshot of product upgrades), (b) launches add
to sales, (c) the dealership network is expanded, and (d) capacity is raised from 300k
units in CY14 to 720k in FY17. RE continues to have a waiting period of 4-5 months.
CV cycle recovery to aid VECV growth: After a two-year slump, the CV cycle in India
rebounded in FY15. We expect the MHCV truck industry to grow at a 21% CAGR over
FY15-FY18 and factor in a volume CAGR of 19% for EIMs CV business during this
period, with a cumulative 600bps increase in margins from higher operating leverage.
Initiate with BUY for 30% upside: With strong volume momentum in the RE business
and higher CV margins, we expect EIM to post a revenue/PAT CAGR of 30%/50% over
CY14-FY18 and ROE expansion from 27% to 39%. EIMs share price surged 75% YoY till
early Aug15 before correcting 20% in the past month and is now trading at 27x FY17E
earnings. We see strong upside potential and value EIM at Rs 22,500 as follows: (1) RE
at Rs 19,450 based on 33x fwd P/E a premium to peers due to its superior earnings,
margin and returns profile, (2) VECV at Rs 3,050 on 10x fwd EV/EBITDA. BUY.
INR 17,234.30
MARKET CAP
27.1 mln
FREE FLOAT
45.1%
3M AVG DAILY VOLUME/VALUE
52 WK LOW
INR 21,620.00
INR 10,727.00
Financial Highlights
Y/E 31 Mar
CY13A
CY14A
FY16E*
FY17E
FY18E
68,098
87,383
1,46,932
1,70,374
2,05,837
7,137
11,148
23,110
31,209
39,420
(INR)
20950
3,945
6,154
12,923
17,764
23,055
15950
145.9
227.1
476.9
655.5
850.7
10950
21.5
55.6
110.0
37.5
29.8
5950
DPS (INR)
30.0
50.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
950
ROIC (%)
30.8
33.5
63.6
85.9
101.3
20.7
26.9
42.4
40.9
37.7
118.1
75.9
36.1
26.3
20.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
64.4
41.4
20.0
14.7
11.3
P/BV (x)
22.7
18.6
13.0
9.1
6.6
Stock Price
Index Price
29,410
24,410
19,410
14,410
Source: Company, Bloomberg, RCML Research | *FY16 is a 15-mth period due to a change in Y/E from Dec to Mar
This report has been prepared by Religare Capital Markets Limited or one of its affiliates. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure and Disclaimer section at the end of
this report. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered with FINRA regulation and may not be subject to FINRA/NYSE restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and
trading securities held by a research analyst account.
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
We model for volume growth of 33% in Royal Enfield (RE low competition, strong brand
recognition, market leadership, new launches, network expansion) and 19% in Volvo
Eicher Commercial Vehicles (VECV CV cycle recovery, premium launches) over our
forecast period, accompanied by consolidated EBITDA margin expansion to 19.2% in FY18
from 12.8% in CY14.
Fig 1 - Stock outperformance vs. Sensex
(Indexed to
100)
Sensex
EIM
390
Price
20x
30x
40x
50x
60x
30,000
340
25,000
290
20,000
240
Sep-15
Mar-15
Sep-14
Mar-14
Mar-13
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
5,000
90
May-14
10,000
140
Sep-13
15,000
190
(Rs)
(Rs)
Volumes start to rise with the launch
of Classic and Thunderbird post
shift to UCE platform
3,500
3,000
21,000
19,000
RE launches Continental
GT in the UK; volumes
keep growing at 50%+
17,000
2,500
2,000
15,000
13,000
11,000
1,500
Eicher signs agreement
with Volvo to form VECV
1,000
RE announces plan to
increase production to
0.25mn units by CY14
9,000
7,000
500
5,000
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
3,000
May-13
Oct-12
Apr-13
Apr-12
Oct-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Oct-09
Apr-10
Apr-09
Oct-08
Apr-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
Oct-06
Oct-05
Apr-06
Apr-05
Oct-04
Apr-04
Oct-03
Apr-03
9 September 2015
Page 2 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
(%)
RE
100
100
90
90
80
83.6
74.8
65.3
59.6
60.1
59.0
60
50
40
40
30
16.4
25.2
34.7
40.4
39.9
41.0
32.3
38.4
38.4
65.8
67.7
61.6
61.6
CY14
15MFY16E
FY17E
FY18E
45.5
20
10
34.2
73.5
30
20
54.5
70
50
10
RE
80
70
60
EBITDA
(%)
26.5
0
CY12
CY13
CY14
15MFY16E
FY17E
FY18E
CY12
CY13
We look at the key factors behind EIMs transformational journey and examine why this
cult brand will continue to fascinate the Indian buyer.
2010 a watershed year for Eicher
RE volumes clocked a mere 9% CAGR over CY03-CY10 and growth plummeted to 1.2% in
CY10 as the company was in transition mode, involving a change in engine platform,
which constrained production. At the time, EIM also discontinued discounts being
handed out to push weak sales.
In Oct10, the company completed transition to the new engine platform bringing with it
key benefits such as better fuel efficiency and lower maintenance costs; this also paved
the way for new, improved model launches such as the Classic all of which yielded
handsome dividends as volume growth surged to a 55% CAGR over CY10-CY14, with sales
rising six-fold to 300k units in CY14. We discuss the key contributing factors behind this
turnaround below.
9 September 2015
Page 3 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
('000 Units)
(%)
350
69.9
80
70
300
57.0
60
52.0
250
50
41.9
200
40
150
30
19.7
18.1
100
20
12.7
50
4.4
6.0
31
10
33
39
33
52
53
FY08
9MCY08
CY09
CY10
0
FY06
FY07
1.2 75
CY11
113
178
303
CY12
CY13
CY14
Source: Company
Source: Company
New state-of-the-art facility and dealer network expansion: RE had a legacy plant
that was nearly 50 years old; as demand grew EIM invested heavily in a new state-ofthe-art manufacturing and product development facility at Oragadam near Chennai,
and also raised capacity from ~60,000 units in CY10 to ~300,000 units in CY14. The
number of dealers has also increased from 140 in CY10 to 425 currently.
9 September 2015
Page 4 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
(Nos)
Capacity
840
900
800
600
720
500
650
700
500
400
600
400
500
307
400
300
300
300
175
200
60
100
200
100
249
186
140
100
FY18E
FY17E
15MFY
16E
CY14
CY13
CY12
CY11
0
CY10
CY11
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15E
Brand image: Royal Enfield is a well-recognised brand in both urban and rural India.
Owning an RE motorcycle is a matter of pride and is considered a status symbol
this powerful brand image remains unmatched by any other mass segment player.
Fuel efficiency and low maintenance cost: After the CY10 revamp, fuel efficiency
has risen to 50kmpl for 350cc and 40kmpl for 500cc engines. Reliability and
durability have also improved substantially. As per our dealer interactions, the cost
of maintenance is only slightly higher than mass market offerings but significantly
lower than the premium offerings of other players in the 350cc and above category.
For the value conscious Indian buyer, RE is seen as the perfect mix of brand status,
quality, fuel efficiency, durability and low-cost maintenance. Competitors will thus face
an uphill task should they look to replicate the brand experience of owning an RE.
Fig 12 - Players in the premium motorcycle range
Company
Model
Engine (cc)
Bajaj
Avenger
220
80
Bajaj
KTM
200
130
Bajaj
KTM
390
190
Bajaj
Ninja
300
350
Bajaj
Ninja
650
460
Suzuki
Inazuma
250
310
Honda
CBR
250
160
Royal Enfield
Bullet 350
350
100
Royal Enfield
Classic 350
350
120
Royal Enfield
Thunderbird 350
350
130
Royal Enfield
350
155
Royal Enfield
Bullet 500
500
145
9 September 2015
Page 5 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company
Model
Royal Enfield
Royal Enfield
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
Engine (cc)
Classic 500
500
155
Thunderbird 500
500
167
Royal Enfield
Continental GT
535
190
Harley-Davidson
Street 750
750
410
Harley-Davidson
883 IRON
880
670
Harley-Davidson
FATBOY
1,700
1,550
Suzuki
Hayabusa
1,500
800
Suzuki
Intruder
1,800
1,000
Triumph
Daytoma
675
1,015
Triumph
Street Triple
675
745
Triumph
Boneville
800
660
Bullet
0.0
10.3
Classic
Thunderbird
0.5
14.3
11.9
10.9
48.7
54.5
58.7
(%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
43.4
46.4
FY13
36.5
32.7
30.1
FY14
FY15
FY16 YTD
350cc
500cc
10.1
10.8
10.6
10.0
89.9
89.2
89.4
90.0
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16 YTD
Despite the rapid expansion drive, RE products continue to have a waiting period of 4-5
months. Thus, the only hindrance to volume growth in the near term would be supply
constraints we build in a volume CAGR of 33% to 769k units over FY15-FY18E and
believe the company is well on course to selling 1mn units in the next 4-5 years.
Fig 15 - Royal Enfield capacity addition
Capacity
('000 units)
900
71.4
73.3
800
700
600
('000 units)
80
900
70
800
60
700
50
500
40
38.5
400
30
300
200
100
(%)
16.7
300
650
720
840
0
CY14
15MFY16E
FY17E
FY18E
(%)
80
69.9
70
54.0
60
600
50
500
40
37.4
400
30
300
20
200
10
100
Volumes
20.2 20
10
303
582
640
769
CY14
15MFY16E
FY17E
FY18E
9 September 2015
Page 6 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
The company has chalked out plans for a new technology centre in Leicestershire,
UK, and has already started assembling a team which will focus on design and
development. One of the high profile recruits includes legendary former Ducati
designer Pierre Terblanche.
To strengthen its design and development capabilities further, EIM recently acquired
UK-based Harris Performance Products, a motorcycle design and engineering firm. Harris
Performance has had a longstanding relationship with the RE brand and was responsible
for chassis development of the Continental GT model. Notably, Harris Performance was the
only UK manufacturer to have been officially commissioned by Yamaha and Suzuki to
design, develop and manufacture race bikes for the Grand Prix and World Superbike series.
A Harley perspective
Similarities have been drawn between Harley Davidson (HD) and Royal Enfield (RE) by
investors and customers alike. We favour the idea of RE being Indias Harley Davidson, as
both players operate in the leisure biking and lifestyle segment; but in our view, REs
potential is significantly higher as it competes at a lower price point and has a larger
target customer base globally.
On average, an HD costs US$ 15,000 as compared to US$ 2,500 for an RE. HD reached
peak volumes of 350,000 units in 2006, growing at 12% CAGR over 1986-2006. We expect
RE to achieve sales of 582,000 units in FY16 (15 months) from 52,576 units in CY10. While
the current growth rate has been super-normal, we see potential for a 15% CAGR in the
next 10 years similar to HDs run over 1986-2006.
Fig 17 - HD volumes started gaining momentum in CY00,
hit a peak in CY06 and tapered off
('000 Units)
400
60
350
50
300
40
250
200
30
150
20
100
10
50
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sep-86
Sep-87
Sep-88
Sep-89
Sep-90
Sep-91
Sep-92
Sep-93
Sep-94
Sep-95
Sep-96
Sep-97
Sep-98
Sep-99
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
We expect RE to benefit significantly from its HD-style brand-building strategy in the long
run. EIM has shied away from mass media advertising for RE, concentrating more on
building its brand around the perceived cult status. The company promotes leisure
motorcycling as a lifestyle. It organises annual events and rides such as the Himalayan
9 September 2015
Page 7 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
Odyssey, the Tour of Rann of Kutch, the Tour of NH17 (Mumbai to Goa), the Tour of
Rajasthan and the Southern Odyssey. Dealers regularly update customers about group
rides and other events. An RE motorcycle gives the owner entry to an exclusive club
of Enfield riders who are typically seen in groups, drawing the envious attention of
people around. EIMs current strategy of a showroom makeover only further
differentiates the brand experience compared to other manufacturers in the market.
Fig 19 - Brand new concept RE store opened in New Delhi...
FY14
96.0
FY15
95.6
90
80
70
60
50
34.6
40
37.3
30
20
10
1.9
3.0
0
Above 250cc
Above 150cc
9 September 2015
Page 8 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
Honda Activa
Classic
25,000
200,000
20,000
150,000
15,000
100,000
10,000
50,000
5,000
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
9 September 2015
Page 9 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
('000 Units)
18
(%)
60
52.0
(%)
6
5.0
16
14
46.2
37.5
34.7
12
50
40
30
20
10
30.0
10
21.7
8
6
20.5
10.4
4
2
11.2
2.0
2.6
3.2
3.5
4.3
6.2
11.8
13.0
3.1
16.9
0
15M FY17E FY18E
FY16E
4.3
3.8
2.4
CY09
CY10
CY11
CY12
CY13
2.1
CY14
2.0
2.0
2.2
9 September 2015
Page 10 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
60
40
20
0
Total CV
MHCV
LCV
FY85-FY15
6.4
4.4
8.5
FY95-FY15
6.3
4.5
7.8
FY05-FY15
6.8
1.6
12.3
FY10-FY15
2.9
(1.0)
5.8
(20.2)
(2.8)
(25.3)
16.0
(17.6)
(11.5)
Annual
(20)
17.6
19.3
16.5
Feb-15
Aug-14
Jun-14
Feb-14
Aug-13
Jun-13
Jun-15
16.5
FY18E
Apr-15
13.4
21.9
Dec-14
20.7
18.5
Oct-14
16.1
FY17E
Apr-14
FY16E
Dec-13
(60)
Oct-13
FY14
FY15
Apr-13
(40)
MHCV YoY %
36
40
20
34
29
23 21
8
13
39
33 32
33
23
10
16
21 22 19
0
(0)
(0)
(20)
(10)
(23)
(40)
(23)
(23)(25)
(33)
(39)
FY18E
FY17E
FY15
FY16E
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
FY05
FY04
FY03
FY02
FY01
FY00
FY99
FY98
FY97
FY96
FY95
FY94
FY93
FY92
FY91
FY90
(60)
9 September 2015
Page 11 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
16.3-25t
>25.1t
Trailers 26.5-35.2t
Trailers >35.2t
7.5-12t
12.1-16.2t
60
Total Domestic CV
40
300
20
200
0
100
Jul-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Jul-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Mar-14
(60)
Jan-14
(100)
Feb-14
(40)
Feb-14
(20)
Fig 31 - Share of the >25t segment has increased over the past 4-5 years
(%)
7.5-12 T
12.1-16.2 T
16.3-25 T
>25T
100
90
10
29
28
29
32
14
13
80
70
11
13
60
12
11
16
26
22
27
49
45
42
31
38
31
26
28
28
39
25
27
50
25
40
49
47
30
40
45
34
26
26
29
24
22
20
22
20
17
20
10
18
19
20
26
15
17
26
12
15
22
12
22
11
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
19
0
FY15
9 September 2015
Page 12 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
EIMs JV with Volvo adds the heavyduty truck segment to its portfolio
TTMT
AL
VECV
Others
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
FY15
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
FY05
FY04
FY03
FY02
50%
In Dec13, EIM unveiled its planned Pro series trucks and buses. These included 11
products in the range of 5-49t Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) which offered higher power
and durability, greater comfort and value-added features at economical costs tapping
into the surging demand for such products in the emerging mid-to-premium market
segment.
In 2014, it began commercialising the Pro series range in a phased manner, starting with
the Light Medium Duty (LMD) segment Pro 1000 and Pro 3000 trucks. Thereafter, the
company launched the heavy-duty Pro 6000 and Pro 8000 to a very encouraging
response. The Pro range of products became available across EIMs distribution points in
the country from the start of FY16. The company commercialised a modern medium-duty
engine manufacturing facility in mid-2013 and invested Rs 5.2bn in CY14, mainly towards
commercialising these new products.
Fig 33 - Eicher PRO series of trucks and buses
Source: Company
9 September 2015
Page 13 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
FY14
45.0
Company Initiation
Fig 35 - Pro series has raised market share for VECV in the
7.5-12t category
(%)
FY15
FY14
FY15
45
41.8
37.7
40
40.3
35
30
19.4
16.6
10.7
12.3 13.7
10.6
15.4 14.4
25
20
16.8
18.0
15
10
MHCV goods MHCV goods
(7.5-12T)
(above 12T)
MHCV
passenger
(above 7.5T)
LCV
Passenger
(below 7.5T)
LCV Goods
(below 7.5T)
5
0
7.5-12T Passenger carriers
9 September 2015
Page 14 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
ROE
EBITDA (R)
(%)
(%)
ROE
(%)
EBITDA (R)
30
14
30
14
25
12
25
12
10
20
15
FY18E
FY17E
FY15
FY16E
FY14
FY13
0
FY12
FY11
0
FY10
FY09
5
FY08
FY07
10
6
10
FY06
FY05
15
10
FY04
20
9 September 2015
Page 15 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
Financials
Revenue/PAT CAGR of 30%/50% over CY14-FY18E
We build in consolidated revenue CAGR of 30% over CY14-FY18, supported by a robust
33% volume CAGR in RE and 19% CAGR in CVs during the same period. While we expect
RE to form 41% of overall revenues by FY18, the business is likely to contribute 62% of
operating profits by then.
Fig 40 - RE volume growth to normalise to 20% in FY18,
VECV to turnaround in FY16
(%)
RE
80
CV
57.0
54.0
56.0
60
37.4
40
20.2 19.6
12.8
20
44.9
50
31.5
30
71.8
68.0
70
50
34.5
40
29.8
28.3
30
21.7
10
20.8
20
0
(10)
PAT
Revenues
80
69.9
70
60
(1.1)
(15.5)
10
(20)
CY13
CY14
15MFY16E
FY17E
FY18E
6.6
0
CY13
15MFY16E
CY14
FY17E
FY18E
Revenues
(%)
RE
100
100
90
90
80
83.6
74.8
65.3
59.6
60.1
59.0
60
50
40
40
30
30
20
16.4
25.2
34.7
40.4
39.9
41.0
34.2
32.3
38.4
38.4
65.8
67.7
61.6
61.6
CY14
15MFY16E
FY17E
FY18E
73.5
45.5
20
10
54.5
70
50
10
RE
80
70
60
EBITDA
(%)
26.5
0
CY12
CY13
CY14
15MFY16E
FY17E
FY18E
CY12
CY13
9 September 2015
Page 16 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
RE
VECV
(%)
25
35
30
28.3
26.4
24.2
VECV
28.7
18.3
19.2
7.0
7.4
10.6
11.3
11.8
15MFY16E
FY17E
FY18E
20
15.7
25
19.0
5.1
10.5
11.9
15
10
12.8
15
20
7.7
Consol
12.7
6.7
4.4
10
8.8
5.7
5
8.4
4.8
0
0
CY13
CY14
15MFY16E
FY17E
CY13
FY18E
CY14
CY14
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
178.1
302.6
582.3
640.0
769.3
17.1
30.3
59.3
67.9
84.5
3.2
7.3
15.6
19.2
24.3
19.0
24.2
26.4
28.3
28.7
2.9
5.6
11.4
14.3
18.4
Volumes (000s)
41.3
40.8
57.5
60.5
72.4
51.3
57.6
87.8
102.7
121.7
4.0
3.8
7.7
12.3
15.5
7.7
6.7
8.8
11.9
12.7
2.9
1.9
3.9
7.7
10.2
68.1
87.4
146.9
170.4
205.8
7.1
11.1
23.1
31.2
39.4
10.5
12.8
15.7
18.3
19.2
3.9
6.2
12.9
17.8
23.1
Royal Enfield
Volumes (000s)
Revenues (Rs bn)
EBITDA (Rs bn)
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT (Rs bn)
VECV
EIM (Consolidated)
Revenues (Rs bn)
EBITDA (Rs bn)
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT (Rs bn)
Source: RCML Research, Company
ROE
44.8
45.4
45
41.1
40
42.4
35
40.9
37.7
27.7
30
24.0
25
26.9
20
15
20.7
CY13
CY14
15MFY16E
FY17E
FY18E
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
(5)
(10)
(15)
Capex
CFO
(Rs mn)
ROCE
22.5
17.3
10.5
7.2
12.3
0.8
0.0
(7.1)
CY13
(9.7)
(9.9)
(9.5)
(9.8)
CY14
15MFY16E
FY17E
FY18E
9 September 2015
Page 17 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
(%)
We initiate coverage on EIM with a Sep16 TP of Rs 22,500, offering 30% upside. Using
the SOTP method, we value RE at 33x one-year forward P/E (Rs 19,450) a premium to
peers due to its robust earnings profile, superior margins and solid return ratios expected
over the next 2-3 years.
60
For VECV, we assign a 10x forward EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with Ashok Leyland as the
company is well positioned to (a) deliver strong volume growth and margin gains in both
domestic sales and exports, (b) benefit from engine export potential as VECVs global
engine hub, and (c) maintain a superior debt-free balance sheet.
20
(x)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
50
EBITDA
40
30
ROE
ROCE
52.1
47.1
31.4 31.2
28.3
39.4
34.3
20.6
14.9
10
0
RE
Bajaj
Hero
SOTP Valuation
- 1 s.d
1 yr forward
Standalone (RE)
EPS (Rs)
590.5
33
19,450
VECV
Sep-15
Mar-15
Sep-14
Mar-14
Sep-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Mar-11
Sep-10
Mar-10
10
EV (Rs bn)
75.5
(7,6)
83.1
27.1
3,050
7.5
22,500
The stock has corrected 20% from its peak and offers an attractive investment
opportunity. Our target price offers 30% upside and we see scope for EIMs share price
to more than double over a five-year period given the high earnings visibility.
Key risks
RE capacity expansion could run into trouble, leading to lower volume growth and
higher waiting periods, driving away potential customers.
9 September 2015
Page 18 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
Company profile
EIM is the flagship of the Eicher Group, responsible for production of Indias first
agricultural tractor in 1959. The company is now a leading player in the Indian
automotive space.
Fig 51 - Ownership structure of Eicher Motors (EIM)
DII
Retail
investors
4.6%
13.0%
27.5%
Corporate
Bodies
1.7%
FII
Promoter
EML
54.9%
Polaris
Industries
AB Volvo
45.6%
54.4%
100%
50%
50%
Source: Company
EIM owns the iconic Royal Enfield motorcycle business, which leads the premium
motorcycle segment in India. RE has created the mid-size motorcycle segment in India
with its unique and distinctive blend of classic modern bikes. Equipped with an enhanced
manufacturing base in Chennai, RE is able to grow production rapidly to meet the surge
in demand for its motorcycles. With 50% growth every year for the last three years, RE is
fast becoming a key player in the global mid-size motorcycle market and is working
towards reinventing this space with new innovative products.
REs product lineup includes the Bullet, Classic and Thunderbird models in both 350 and
500cc displacements, and the recently introduced Continental GT 535cc caf racer. RE
operates through 12 company-operated stores and 425 dealers in all major cities and
towns in India, and exports to over 50 countries including the USA, Japan, UK, several
European and Latin American countries, as well as the Middle East and South Asia.
EMLs joint venture with the Volvo group, VE Commercial Vehicles, began operations in
Jul08. The company includes the complete range of Eicher branded trucks and buses, VE
Powertrain, EIMs components and engineering design services businesses, the sales and
distribution business of Volvo Trucks as well as aftermarket support to Volvo Buses in
India. VECVs vision is to be recognised as the industry leader driving modernisation in
commercial transportation in India and the developing world.
In 2012, EIM signed a strategic JV agreement with US-based Polaris Industries to design,
develop, manufacture and sell a new range of personal vehicles suitable for India and
other emerging markets. The JV allows EIM to enter into a new vehicle segment. In 2013,
the JV company Eicher Polaris Pvt Ltd (EPPL) set up its manufacturing facility in Jaipur,
Rajasthan, and in 2014 launched its first vehicle Multix in the Indian market. The JV does
not have any export plans currently.
9 September 2015
Page 19 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
Key management
Siddhartha Lal MD & CEO, Eicher Motors
Siddhartha Lal is the CEO of Royal Enfield, Chairman of VECV and Chairman of EicherPolaris Pvt Ltd (EPPL). He holds a Masters degree in Automotive Engineering from
University of Leeds and is a Cranfield University qualified mechanical engineer.
Lalit Malik CFO, Eicher Motors
Prior to joining EIM, Lalit worked at Max India as VP Corporate Development, where his
primary responsibility included managing the investments of Max India in the insurance
space. From Apr-Dec08, Lalit also worked at AIG as Head of Business Strategy, Business
Development & Insurance (cross sell) for the Consumer Finance Group in India. Here he
was responsible for conceptualizing and executing inorganic and organic growth of the
company through portfolio buyouts, securitisation, strategic partnerships, collaboration
and introduction of new products.
Rudratej Singh President, Royal Enfield
Rudratej Rudy Singh joined the company in Jan15 and has over 18 years of experience
in leading the Brand and Marketing mandate for well-known companies in India and
across the globe. As President of Royal Enfield, Rudy is responsible for building thought
leadership for the brand and leading the commercial business. This includes global sales
and after sales, brand and marketing, new product strategy, and creating and growing
new business opportunities such as apparel, accessories, and other adjacencies. Prior to
joining Royal Enfield, Rudy was based in Singapore with Unilever as Vice President
South Asia, HPC & Foods Marketing Operations.
B Govindarajan COO, Royal Enfield
B Govindarajan has been the Chief Operating Officer (COO) at RE since Jan13. He joined
RE in Jun11 as Senior Vice President Industry for his second stint with the company,
where he was actively involved in ramping up production at REs Thiruvottiyur facility to
100,000 units per annum. He is now spearheading the setup of REs second plant at
Oragadam near Chennai and is implementing extensive cost management in sourcing
and operations. He had joined RE as Manager Engineering in 1995 and in 2004, became
the GM Manufacturing where he was responsible for the entire manufacturing activity
and implementation of Lean and Quality Management Systems. In 2006, he was
promoted to Divisional General Manager at RE. Soon after, he moved to the Commercial
Vehicle Manufacturing unit of EIM in Pithampur as the Head of Operations.
9 September 2015
Page 20 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
CY13A
CY14A
FY16E*
FY17E
FY18E
Reported EPS
145.9
227.1
476.9
655.5
850.7
Adjusted EPS
145.9
227.1
476.9
655.5
850.7
30.0
50.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
760.1
928.4
1,323.3
1,885.2
2,630.7
CY13A
CY14A
FY16E*
FY17E
FY18E
6.7
5.3
3.1
2.7
2.2
EV/EBITDA
64.4
41.4
20.0
14.7
11.3
Adjusted P/E
118.1
75.9
36.1
26.3
20.3
22.7
18.6
13.0
9.1
6.6
CY13A
CY14A
FY16E*
FY17E
FY18E
DPS
BVPS
Valuation Ratios
Y/E 31 Mar (x)
EV/Sales
P/BV
Financial Ratios
Y/E 31 Mar
Profitability & Return Ratios (%)
EBITDA margin
10.5
12.8
15.7
18.3
19.2
EBIT margin
8.6
10.2
12.9
15.9
16.7
5.8
7.0
8.8
10.4
11.2
Adjusted ROAE
20.7
26.9
42.4
40.9
37.7
ROCE
24.0
27.7
44.8
45.4
41.1
Revenue
6.6
28.3
68.1
16.0
20.8
EBITDA
30.0
56.2
107.3
35.0
26.3
Adjusted EPS
21.5
55.6
110.0
37.5
29.8
Invested capital
28.6
25.7
4.8
8.7
7.2
Receivables (days)
27
23
12
16
15
Inventory (days)
40
37
29
35
38
Payables (days)
69
69
57
73
81
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.7
3.6
3.2
3.9
3.5
3.5
1.4
1.5
2.0
1.7
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(0.3)
(0.2)
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.5)
CY13A
CY14A
FY16E*
FY17E
FY18E
58.8
62.0
63.6
61.0
60.8
115.0
110.9
107.5
107.6
110.2
Adjusted debt/equity
DuPont Analysis
Y/E 31 Mar (%)
Tax burden (Net income/PBT)
Interest burden (PBT/EBIT)
EBIT margin (EBIT/Revenue)
8.6
10.2
12.9
15.9
16.7
143.3
154.3
203.8
171.9
154.5
249.4
247.7
236.3
227.9
217.8
20.7
26.9
42.4
40.9
37.7
Adjusted ROAE
9 September 2015
Page 21 of 25
BUY
Eicher Motors
EIM IN
Company Initiation
INDIA
AUTOMOBILES
Income Statement
Y/E 31 Mar (INR mln)
CY13A
CY14A
FY16E*
FY17E
FY18E
Total revenue
68,098
87,383
1,46,932
1,70,374
2,05,837
EBITDA
7,137
11,148
23,110
31,209
39,420
EBIT
5,837
8,950
18,911
27,049
34,382
874
977
1,409
2,067
3,517
Other income/(expenses)
Exceptional items
6,711
9,926
20,320
29,116
37,899
(1,452)
(2,909)
(5,618)
(7,863)
(10,196)
(1,314)
(864)
(1,780)
(3,488)
(4,648)
3,945
6,154
12,923
17,764
23,055
3,945
6,154
12,923
17,764
23,055
CY13A
CY14A
FY16E*
FY17E
FY18E
Accounts payables
11,914
15,127
21,025
30,949
37,873
5,699
6,750
8,034
11,585
14,075
Provisions
2,159
3,213
4,358
5,371
6,212
Debt funds
839
584
584
584
584
270
271
271
271
271
20,284
24,888
35,591
50,819
71,020
Shareholders' fund
20,554
25,159
35,862
51,090
71,291
51,562
61,682
82,492
1,15,697
1,50,802
6,826
4,806
9,832
21,332
39,139
Accounts receivables
5,125
5,622
4,991
7,266
8,631
Inventories
5,268
6,455
8,569
12,392
14,955
6,695
9,135
11,562
17,035
21,021
Investments
8,255
10,777
17,230
22,521
27,845
16,561
23,093
31,014
37,753
42,466
4,636
4,188
2,000
600
600
(1,805)
(2,394)
(2,705)
(3,202)
(3,854)
EBT
Income taxes
Extraordinary items
Min. int./Inc. from associates
Reported net profit
Adjustments
Adjusted net profit
Balance Sheet
Other liabilities
Equity capital
Total assets
51,561
61,682
82,492
1,15,697
1,50,802
CY13A
CY14A
FY16E*
FY17E
FY18E
5,245
8,352
17,122
21,925
28,092
Interest expenses
79
98
78
78
78
Non-cash adjustments
(1)
(2)
1,491
2,020
4,415
3,826
2,997
348
606
932
1,051
7,162
10,475
22,221
26,761
32,218
Capital expenditures
(7,123)
(9,720)
(9,932)
(9,500)
(9,750)
Change in investments
(1,518)
(1,778)
(6,453)
(5,291)
(5,325)
743
625
1,488
2,145
3,595
(7,898)
(10,872)
(14,897)
(12,646)
(11,480)
0
Equities issued
17
79
Debt raised/repaid
610
(255)
Interest expenses
(80)
(98)
(78)
(78)
(78)
(2,854)
Dividends paid
(1,020)
(1,348)
(2,219)
(2,537)
(474)
(1,622)
(2,298)
(2,615)
(2,932)
(1,209)
(2,020)
5,027
11,500
17,807
6,826
4,806
9,833
21,332
39,139
9 September 2015
Page 22 of 25
RESEARCH TEAM
ANALYST
SECTOR
TELEPHONE
Mihir Jhaveri
mihir.jhaveri@religare.com
Siddharth Vora
siddharth.vora@religare.com
Misal Singh
misal.singh@religare.com
Prashant Tiwari
prashant.tiwari@religare.com
Gaurang Kakkad
Consumer
gaurang.kakkad@religare.com
Premal Kamdar
Consumer
premal.kamdar@religare.com
Nitin Tiwari
Energy
nitin.tiwari@religare.com
Parag Jariwala
Financials
parag.jariwala@religare.com
Vikesh Mehta
Financials
vikesh.mehta@religare.com
Rumit Dugar
rumit.dugar@religare.com
Saumya Shrivastava
saumya.shrivastava@religare.com
Pritesh Jani
Metals
pritesh.jani@religare.com
Arun Baid
Mid-caps
arun.baid@religare.com
Praful Bohra
Pharmaceuticals
praful.bohra@religare.com
Arun Aggarwal
Real Estate
arun.aggarwal@religare.com
Pawan Parakh
Utilities
pawan.parakh@religare.com
Jay Shankar
shankar.jay@religare.com
Megha Arora
megha.arora@religare.com
9 September 2015
Page 23 of 25
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Buy
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Religare Capital Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in our research
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affect the objectivity of research produced by Religare Capital Markets. Investors should consider our
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Other Disclosures by Religare Capital Markets Limited under SEBI (Research Analysts)
Regulations, 2014 with reference to the subject companies(s) covered in this report:
Religare Capital Markets Limited (RCML) is engaged in the business of Institutional Stock Broking
and Investment Banking. RCML is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and
BSE Limited and is also a SEBI-registered Merchant Banker. RCML is a subsidiary of Religare
Enterprises Limited which has its various subsidiaries engaged in the businesses of commodity
broking, stock broking, lending, asset management, life insurance, health insurance, wealth
management, portfolio management, etc. RCML has set up subsidiaries in Singapore, Hong Kong,
Sri Lanka and Middle East to render stock broking and investment banking services in respective
jurisdictions.
RCMLs activities were neither suspended nor has it defaulted with any stock exchange authority with
whom it has been registered in the last five years. RCML has not been debarred from doing business
by any Stock Exchange / SEBI or any other authority. No disciplinary action has been taken by any
regulatory authority against RCML impacting its equity research analysis activities.
RCML or its research analyst or his/her relatives do not have any financial interest in the subject
company.
RCML or its research analyst or his/her relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of one per
cent or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the
date of publication of this research report.
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RESEARCH DISCLAIMER
Research analyst or his/her relatives do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of
publication of this report.
RCML may from time to time solicit or perform investment banking services for the company(ies)
mentioned in this report.
Research analyst has not received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12
months.
RCML or its associates may have material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this
research report.
RCML may have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in
the past 12 months.
RCMLs associates may have financial interest in the subject company. RCMLs associates may have
received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months. RCMLs associates may
hold actual / beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities in the subject company at the
end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report.
RCML may have received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.
Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company.
RCML or its research analyst is not engaged in any market making activities for the subject company.
RCM has obtained registration as Research Entity under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations,
2014.
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