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The Republican Nomination: Trump Maintains His Lead but Carson Gains
September 9-13, 2015
Q1. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so
far?
************** REGISTERED VOTERS *************
Total
Rep
Dem
Ind
Rep. Primary Voters
Jul15e
%
%
%
%
%
%
A lot
36
44
30
35
48
30
Some
35
35
35
35
36
41
Not much
17
12
22
15
9
20
No attention so far
12
8
12
15
6
9
Dont know/No answer
1
1
1
0
*
-Q2. Next year, are you more likely to vote in a (Republican presidential primary) or caucus, or a (Democratic presidential primary) or
caucus or aren't you likely to vote in a primary or caucus at all?
Republican primary
Democratic primary
Not likely to vote
Never vote
Dont know/No answer
36
33
17
*
14
87
1
6
6
4
76
10
10
22
20
32
1
24
Q3. (Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2016?
Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Mike Huckabee
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Scott Walker
Chris Christie
Rick Perry
Rick Santorum
Lindsey Graham
Bobby Jindal
George Pataki
Jim Gilmore
Someone Else (vol.)
None of them (vol.)
Dont know/No answer
*Less than 0.5%
Jul15e
%
24
6
13
8
6
6
*
1
4
10
3
2
1
*
2
1
1
1
3
9
Q4. Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?
Mind made up
Too early
Dont know/No answer
Q5. Who would be your second choice for the Republican nomination for president?
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
%
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
Donald Trump
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Carly Fiorina
Scott Walker
Chris Christie
Mike Huckabee
Rand Paul
John Kasich
Bobby Jindal
Rick Perry
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
George Pataki
Rick Santorum
Someone Else (vol.)
None of them (vol.)
Dont know/No answer
*Less than 0.5%
19
12
12
9
7
6
4
4
4
3
2
1
1
1
*
*
2
5
8
Jul15e
%
10
8
6
10
11
5
8
3
7
8
4
3
4
*
1
*
2
*
2
9
Q6. What is the main reason you would like to see the Republican Party nominate Donald Trump as its 2016 presidential
candidate?
TRUMP IS 1st or 2nd CHOICE
%
15
13
10
9
8
7
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
11
1
Q7. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these Republican presidential candidates would you be
most dissatisfied with as the Republican nominee?
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
%
Donald Trump
Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Lindsey Graham
Rand Paul
Mike Huckabee
Ben Carson
John Kasich
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Jim Gilmore
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Bobby Jindal
George Pataki
Scott Walker
Someone Else (vol.)
None of them (vol.)
Dont know/No answer
*Less than 0.5%
23
15
11
8
7
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
12
Jul15e
%
27
18
10
6
17
2
1
*
3
3
2
1
3
1
1
1
1
*
2
9
Q8. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these Republican presidential candidates do you think
has the best chance of winning the general election in November 2016?
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
%
Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
John Kasich
Scott Walker
Mike Huckabee
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Carly Fiorina
Lindsey Graham
George Pataki
Rick Santorum
Bobby Jindal
Jim Gilmore
Someone Else (vol.)
None of them (vol.)
Dont know/No answer
39
18
11
5
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
*
*
*
*
*
14
Jul15e
%
26
1
23
4
4
2
1
8
4
5
2
-*
-1
*
1
*
1
16
Q9. If Donald Trump became the 2016 Republican nominee for President, would you enthusiastically support him,
support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?
Enthusiastically support
Support with reservations
Support only because nominee
No support
Dont know/No answer
35
36
12
15
2
Q10. Thinking about the Republican party's nominee for president in 2016, which is more important to you -- a nominee
who (agrees with your position on most issues), or a nominee who (can win the general election in November)?
Agrees on issues
Can win in November
Dont know/No answer
60
35
5
Q11. Would you prefer the Republican nominee for president be someone whose experience has been mostly (in politics
and government), or someone whose experience has been mostly in the business or private sector, or doesn't it matter
to you?
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
%
9
48
41
2
35
55
11
53
32
15
18
74
7
34
56
10
55
32
12
Q13. Do you think Donald Trump has strong qualities of leadership, or not?
Yes, strong qualities of leadership
56
No, does not have strong qualities of leadership 41
Dont know/no answer
3
80
16
3
35
63
2
54
43
4
81
17
2
Q14. Do you think Donald Trumps views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just
about right?
Too conservative
Not conservative enough
Just about right
Dont know/no answer
9
28
56
7
49
16
36
73
5
22
27
26
47
48
16
36
79
4
16
35
29
36
64
15
22
Q16. Do you think Ben Carson has strong qualities of leadership, or not?
Yes, strong qualities of leadership
38
No, does not have strong qualities of leadership 25
Dont know/no answer
37
59
15
26
21
31
48
Q17. Do you think Ben Carsons views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just
about right?
Too conservative
Not conservative enough
Just about right
Dont know/no answer
8
8
66
18
48
35
17
71
15
14
32
51
17
43
39
19
72
16
13
41
43
16
58
32
10
Q19. Do you think Jeb Bush has strong qualities of leadership, or not?
Yes, strong qualities of leadership
44
No, does not have strong qualities of leadership 42
Dont know/no answer
14
57
31
11
37
50
13
Q20. Do you think Jeb Bushs views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just about
right?
Too conservative
Not conservative enough
Just about right
Dont know/no answer
12
40
39
9
8
42
41
9
49
5
22
25
22
36
36
7
12
40
39
9
Legal
Not legal
Dont know/no answer
Total
%
Rep
%
Dem
%
Ind
%
55
37
8
36
58
6
67
26
7
57
32
11
35
59
7
Jun15b
%
57
35
8
Q33. Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living in the U.S.? 1. (They should be allowed to
stay in the U.S and eventually apply for citizenship), 2. They should be allowed to stay in the U.S. legally, but not be
allowed to apply for citizenship or 3. (They should be required to leave the U.S.)
Jul15e
%
58
10
27
5
61
9
29
5
38
12
45
4
72
7
18
3
59
10
24
8
35
11
49
5
Q34. Would you favor or oppose a policy where all people who are in this country illegally would be sent back to the
country they came from, but some could legally be allowed back into the U.S. on a faster track than other immigrants?
************* TOTAL RESPONDENTS **************
Total
Rep
Dem
Ind
Rep. Primary Voters
%
%
%
%
%
Favor
Oppose
Dont know/no answer
Total Respondents
Total Registered voters
Total Republican Primary Voters
45
45
9
Unweighted
1,261
1,021
376
52
39
9
42
48
10
Weighted
926
331
44
48
8
Margin of error
3 pts.
4 pts.
6 pts.
54
37
9