Ranges (Up till 12.

10pm HKT)
Currency

supply above that. In rates space, AudUsd looks to head

into 0.74s and that should be interesting.

Currency

EURUSD

1.1351-775

EURJPY

136.50-75

USDJPY

120.09-25

EURGBP

0.7415-22

GBPUSD

1.5315-39

USDSGD

1.3968-1.4028

USDCHF
AUDUSD

0.9605-18
0.7306-47

USDTHB
USDKRW

35.50-625
1156.0-1150.0

NZDUSD

0.6673-0.6707

USDTWD

32.368-850

USDCAD

1.2915-63

USDCNH

6.3277-6.3425

AUDNZD

1.0946-65

XAU

1155.5-1158.9

Key Headlines

Rather lacklustre start of the week without US,

Canada, Japan and also, lacking in economic
data.

The only action in G10 space is UsdCad. Thanks

to oil futures.

A lot of AudJpy demand from speculators;

gamma players bought AudUsd on short
covering.

Wed is MAS day. Some Sgd experts said this

MAS monetary policy decision will be a close
one.

Asians
The UsdSgd moved higher as prop and some Asian
traders took profit on shorts. Sgd experts said this MAS
monetary policy decision will be a close one. Though
most are sticking on to their call that a weakening of the
Sgd will be on the cards, Business Times said MAS has
also repeatedly shown that it is capable of catching the
market by surprise. UsdSgd was in the 1.3980s, there
was a brief move to 1.3968 and locals lifted Usd up to
1.4000. I heard momentum funds were the main sellers
into the 1.4020s.
UsdMyr also moved up on open despite oil futures are
positive. Intraday traders remain restless after BNM
issued a statement that it had requested a criminal
investigation into the affairs of the 1MDB. Industrial
Production released today was below expectations at
+3.0% from 6.1%, expecting +4.1%.
CNY fixed at two-month high 6.3406 and Shanghai
Composite Index up more than 3.3% by midday.
Following the fix, we saw a lot of USDCNH sellers out of
North Asia sending the offshore spot to 6.3277.

Who said what

FX Flows

Rather lacklustre start of the week without US, Canada,

Japan and also, lacking in economic data.

The only action in G10 space is UsdCad. Thanks to oil

futures, the pair has backed off from high of 1.2963 to
1.2915. As mentioned earlier reports, this pair is moving
towards our target of 1.28's. If rates are right, then
1.2800 should make Cad right level. Canadian real
money and corporate names are on the bid, from 1.2910
into the 1.28-handle. Offers are very light.

Euro printed 1.13775 high into the into Asia open but
found offers ahead of 1.1380. I am told better selling
interests are planted near 1.1400.

Without Japan, UsdJpy sat in range so tight, pretty dull

to put up a story. However, we do see and hear
speculators buying AudJpy this morning, looking out for
strong Aussie labour report this Thursday. Offers in
UsdJpy are lined up close to 120.45 and hearsay stop buy
orders thereafter 120.60.

Aussie dollar advance against the Usd and Jpy with

speculators buying AudJpy and option players covering
short gamma position. We were also paid few times in
AudUsd near 0.7340 by regional prop accounts and seen

IMF: Japan should proceed with second sales

tax hike scheduled for April 2017
IMF: Both positives and negatives to weak Jpy,
most important to avoid excess liquidity
IMF: Japan consumer prices rising gradually,
excluding effects of external factors such as oil
BNM Gov Zeti: Does not see higher risk of
domestic inflation
BNM Gov Zeti: Sees more risk of slower
Malaysia growth as world weakens
BNM Gov Zeti: Current interest rates support
Malaysias growth
BNM Gov Zeti: Malaysias economy has high
degree of resilience
BNM Gov Zeti: Malaysia growth this year still in
5% range
BNM Gov Zeti: Yuan decline not a significant
depreciation
China Lou: Welcomes World Bank voting reform
progress
Thai Deputy PM Somkid: Cabinet to consider
property measures tomorrow

News & Data

New Zealand REINZ House Sales Y/Y at 38.3%

from 41.7%

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

Australia Aug Credit Card Purchases Aud24.4bn

from Aud24.7bn
Australia Aug Credit Card Balances Aud50.6
from Aud50.5
Malaysia Aug Industrial Production up 3.0%
from 6.1% (est. 4.1%)

Bloomberg: Zeti Says Malaysia Central Bank's

1MDB Move Vital for Integrity
Malaysias central bank had to take action against a debtridden state investment company to protect the integrity
of the financial system, according to Governor Zeti
Akhtar Aziz, who said an improvement in the countrys
political situation would help the ringgit. The attorney
generals office earlier this month dismissed the central
banks second request for criminal proceedings against
1Malaysia Development Bhd. for breaching the Exchange
Control Act. Bank Negara Malaysia revoked three
permissions given to 1MDB for investments abroad
totaling $1.83 billion, and instructed it to repatriate the
amount.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-1012/zeti-says-malaysia-central-bank-s-1mdb-move-vitalfor-integrity
FT: Rio Tinto vows to not cut copper output
despite falling prices
Rio Tinto has warned that it will not cut copper
production, saying it would be illogical to hold back
output and leave space in the market for higher-cost
rivals. Jean-Sebastien Jacques, head of copper and coal
at Rio, said the Anglo-Australian mining group would
not reduce output even though current prices of the
industrial metal did not reflect fundamentals.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1681ce0e-6dc8-11e5aca9-d87542bf8673.html#axzz3oJEZvDEs
Business Times: MAS monetary policy decision
will be a close call, say economists
Will the MAS surprise again on Wednesday, when it
releases its October monetary policy statement, or will it
follow the market's script? If the central bank moves in
tandem with most economists' expectations, a
weakening of the Singapore dollar will be on the cards whether by a downward re-centering of the S$NEER
(Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate) band,
or a reduction in the band's slope to a neutral policy
stance. But the MAS has also repeatedly shown that it is
capable of catching the market by surprise.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/governmenteconomy/mas-monetary-policy-decision-will-be-a-closecall-say-economists
FT: Fischer voices caution on global risks to US
outlook

Stanley Fischer, vice-chairman of the Feds board of

governors, told a conference in Peru that he shared the
view held by most Fed rate-setters that it would be
appropriate to lift interest rates in 2015 as the central
bank responds to diminishing spare capacity in the
labour market. But he gave a cautious assessment of the
outlook. He reiterated the view in the Fed that recent
turbulence overseas was not expected to have a
significant effect on the path for US policy, and
acknowledged conversations with emerging market
officials who say they are sufficiently forewarned for the
Fed to go ahead and lift rates.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cd75674c-7020-11e5ad6d-f4ed76f0900a.html#axzz3oJEZvDEs
WSJ: Iran Test-Fires New Missile
Iran test-fired a new generation of surface-to-surface
ballistic missiles on Sunday, its state news agency
reported, a move that could complicate the
implementation of the countrys July nuclear deal even
as its parliament ratified the historic pacts outlines. Iran
tested a long-range missile called the Emad, which
Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan said was capable of
precise control, according to a report from the Islamic
Republic News Agency.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-test-fires-newmissile-1444610450?mod=wsj_nview_latest
Telegraph: World cannot spend its way out of a
slump, warns OECD chief
Countries that try to spend their way out of crisis risk
becoming stuck in a permanent malaise, according to the
head of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD). Angel Gurria said central banks
were running out of firepower to boost economies in the
event of another sharp slowdown, while governments
had limited space to ramp up spending. The secretary
general said structural reforms and more international
co-operation were badly needed in a world of
deteriorating growth.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/119253
22/World-cannot-spend-its-way-out-of-a-slump-warnsOECD-chief.html
WSJ: Chinese Investors Rush to Haven Assets
After more than doubling since the start of the year,
Chinas stock market fell by 40% from its June peak and
has been stuck in a tight range since, despite a huge
government effort to boost share prices. The crash has
reinforced the long-held view in China that the stock
market resembles a casino, and that it is best to put
money in tangible assets. During the weeklong National
Day holiday earlier this month, Chinese did just that,
shopping for properties in major cities and spending
millions of dollars at the annual fall art auctions in Hong
Kong.

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-investors-rush-tohaven-assets-1444591800?mod=wsj_nview_latest
Telegraph: China slowdown starts to hit British
exports
Fears that Chinas economic slowdown would hit small
UK exporters have begun to be realised, as the countrys
middle class cuts back on Western luxuries. Graham &
Brown, the midmarket wallpaper firm, which has
increased sales to China 25pc year-on-year since 2012,
has reported that export growth to the country is now
flat.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retai
landconsumer/11925307/China-slowdown-starts-to-hitBritish-exports.html

system, and has revived relatively faster, Lou was

yesterday quoted by the Peoples Daily website as saying
on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and
World Bank annual meetings in Lima, Peru.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/18
66436/time-still-not-ripe-us-interest-rates-rise-sayschinas-finance

Telegraph: Commodity contagion sparks second

credit crisis as investors panic
The collapse in commodity prices has sparked a second
credit crisis as investors dump high-yield bonds,
shattering the fragile confidence necessary to support
global markets. Those calling it a Lehman moment forget
their history. Current events have chilling similarities to
the Bear Stearns collapse and mark the start of a new
crisis, not the end. If Glencore itself were to fold, it
would be a huge problem with its $221bn in annual
revenues, but when combined with the other commodity
trading houses, Trafigura, Vitol and Noble, the fallout
would be disastrous.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/1
1923223/Commodity-contagion-sparks-second-creditcrisis-as-investors-panic.html
Xinhua News - About two percent of global GDP
lost to corruption every year: think tank
Around 1-1.5 trillion U.S. dollars, or around two percent
of global GDP, are lost to corruption every year, Daniel
Kaufmann, president of the Natural Resource
Governance Institute (NRGI), said on Sunday. Speaking
at a panel on integrity in public governance during the
World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund
Annual Meetings in Lima, Kaufman presented this
startling statistic, a result of a lengthy study by the
NRGI, an independent, non-profit organization based in
New York.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/201510/12/c_134703419.htm
SCMP: Time still not ripe for US interest rates to
rise, says Chinas finance minister Lou Jiwei
It is not yet a good time for the United States to raise its
interest rates as the global economy is still sluggish,
Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said, signalling Beijings
unease about the impact the move might have on the
Chinese economy. The US economy has benefited from
the position [of the US dollar] in the global currency
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.