Professional Documents
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Outline
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My background
Other issues
My background
My background
Speaker introduction
Rob J Hyndman
Professor of Statistics, Monash University
My background
Speaker introduction
Rob J Hyndman
Professor of Statistics, Monash University
Director, Business & Economic Forecasting
Unit, Monash University
My background
Speaker introduction
Rob J Hyndman
Professor of Statistics, Monash University
Director, Business & Economic Forecasting
Unit, Monash University
Editor-in-Chief,
International Journal of Forecasting
My background
Speaker introduction
Rob J Hyndman
Professor of Statistics, Monash University
Director, Business & Economic Forecasting
Unit, Monash University
Editor-in-Chief,
International Journal of Forecasting
Director, International Institute of
Forecasters
My background
My background
My background
Rob J. Hyndman is a Professor of Statistics and Director of the Business and Economic Forecasting
Unit at Monash University, Australia. He is Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal
of Forecasting, author of over 100 research papers in statistical science, and received the 2007
Moran medal from the Australian Academy of Science for his contributions to statistical research.
Anne B. Koehler is a Professor of Decision Sciences and the Panuska Professor of Business
Administration at Miami University, Ohio. She has numerous publications, many of which are
on forecasting models for seasonal time series and exponential smoothing methods.
J. Keith Ord is a Professor in the McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University,
Washington DC. He has authored over 100 research papers in statistics and forecasting, and is
a co-author of Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics.
Ralph D. Snyder is an Associate Professor in the Department of Econometrics and Business
Statistics at Monash University, Australia. He has extensive publications on business forecasting
and inventory management. He has played a leading role in the establishment of the class of
innovations state space models for exponential smoothing.
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Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing
Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are the most popular
forecasting methods used in business and industry. Recently, exponential smoothing has been
revolutionized with the introduction of a complete modeling framework incorporating
inno-vations state space models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for
model selection. In this book, all of the important results for this framework are brought together
in a coherent manner with consistent notation. In addition, many new results and extensions are
introduced and several application areas are examined in detail.
Forecasting
with Exponential
Smoothing
The State Space Approach
ISBN 9-783-540-71916-8
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My background
My background
My background
Outline
1
My background
Other issues
http://repec.org
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http://cn.arXiv.org
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http://www.ssrn.com
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Online repositories
Free online access to all working
papers (i.e., before publication in a
refereed journal).
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Online repositories
Free online access to all working
papers (i.e., before publication in a
refereed journal).
RePEc: good for economics,
econometrics.
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Online repositories
Free online access to all working
papers (i.e., before publication in a
refereed journal).
RePEc: good for economics,
econometrics.
arXiv: good for mathematical
statistics, mathematical finance.
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Online repositories
Free online access to all working
papers (i.e., before publication in a
refereed journal).
RePEc: good for economics,
econometrics.
arXiv: good for mathematical
statistics, mathematical finance.
SSRN: good for management, law.
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Outline
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My background
Other issues
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Statistical software
The best statistical software is free!
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Statistical software
www.r-project.org
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Statistical software
www.r-project.org
Chinese mirror available
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Statistical software
www.r-project.org
Chinese mirror available
Chinese version of
software available
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Statistical software
www.r-project.org
Chinese mirror available
Chinese version of
software available
Download free packages
to implement most
modern statistical and
econometrics methods
18
Statistical software
www.r-project.org
Chinese mirror available
Chinese version of
software available
Download free packages
to implement most
modern statistical and
econometrics methods
Very active online user
community for help
18
Statistical software
www.r-project.org
Chinese mirror available
Chinese version of
software available
Download free packages
to implement most
modern statistical and
econometrics methods
Very active online user
community for help
Much better software than
any commercial product!
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Outline
1
My background
Other issues
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Attend conferences
International Symposium on Forecasting, Hong Kong, June
2009.
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Attend conferences
International Symposium on Forecasting, Hong Kong, June
2009.
2nd IMS-China Conference on Statistics and Probability,
Weihai, July 36, 2009.
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Attend conferences
International Symposium on Forecasting, Hong Kong, June
2009.
2nd IMS-China Conference on Statistics and Probability,
Weihai, July 36, 2009.
7th World Congress on Health Economics. Beijing, July
1215, 2009.
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Attend conferences
International Symposium on Forecasting, Hong Kong, June
2009.
2nd IMS-China Conference on Statistics and Probability,
Weihai, July 36, 2009.
7th World Congress on Health Economics. Beijing, July
1215, 2009.
1st International Conference on the Interface between
Statistics and Engineering. Beijing, July 1315, 2009.
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Attend conferences
International Symposium on Forecasting, Hong Kong, June
2009.
2nd IMS-China Conference on Statistics and Probability,
Weihai, July 36, 2009.
7th World Congress on Health Economics. Beijing, July
1215, 2009.
1st International Conference on the Interface between
Statistics and Engineering. Beijing, July 1315, 2009.
International Conference on Management Technology and
Applications (ICMTA 2009). Beijing, August 811, 2009.
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Attend conferences
International Symposium on Forecasting, Hong Kong, June
2009.
2nd IMS-China Conference on Statistics and Probability,
Weihai, July 36, 2009.
7th World Congress on Health Economics. Beijing, July
1215, 2009.
1st International Conference on the Interface between
Statistics and Engineering. Beijing, July 1315, 2009.
International Conference on Management Technology and
Applications (ICMTA 2009). Beijing, August 811, 2009.
World Congress Econometric Society. Shanghai, August
1722, 2010.
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Attend conferences
International Symposium on Forecasting, Hong Kong, June
2009.
2nd IMS-China Conference on Statistics and Probability,
Weihai, July 36, 2009.
7th World Congress on Health Economics. Beijing, July
1215, 2009.
1st International Conference on the Interface between
Statistics and Engineering. Beijing, July 1315, 2009.
International Conference on Management Technology and
Applications (ICMTA 2009). Beijing, August 811, 2009.
World Congress Econometric Society. Shanghai, August
1722, 2010.
2010 ICSA International Conference. Guangzhou,
December 1922, 2010.
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My background
Other issues
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Outline
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My background
Other issues
Other issues
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Other issues
Abstracts
Very important to be well-written. Often
the only part someone will read.
27
Other issues
Abstracts
Very important to be well-written. Often
the only part someone will read.
Encourage interested readers to read
further.
27
Other issues
Abstracts
Very important to be well-written. Often
the only part someone will read.
Encourage interested readers to read
further.
Give a complete summary of the paper
and the main results.
27
Other issues
Abstracts
Very important to be well-written. Often
the only part someone will read.
Encourage interested readers to read
further.
Give a complete summary of the paper
and the main results.
Be clear and brief. Avoid abbreviations.
27
Other issues
Abstracts
Very important to be well-written. Often
the only part someone will read.
Encourage interested readers to read
further.
Give a complete summary of the paper
and the main results.
Be clear and brief. Avoid abbreviations.
Describe methods and results in past
tense, but conclusions in present tense.
27
Journal submissions
Almost all journals now prefer online
submissions. Dont send hard copies.
Other issues
28
Other issues
Journal submissions
Almost all journals now prefer online
submissions. Dont send hard copies.
Make sure you cite relevant papers from
the journal you submit to.
28
Other issues
Journal submissions
Almost all journals now prefer online
submissions. Dont send hard copies.
Make sure you cite relevant papers from
the journal you submit to.
Read the author guidelines and try to
follow them.
28
Other issues
Journal submissions
Almost all journals now prefer online
submissions. Dont send hard copies.
Make sure you cite relevant papers from
the journal you submit to.
Read the author guidelines and try to
follow them.
Choose a journal that covers your topic.
28
Other issues
Journal submissions
Almost all journals now prefer online
submissions. Dont send hard copies.
Make sure you cite relevant papers from
the journal you submit to.
Read the author guidelines and try to
follow them.
Choose a journal that covers your topic.
Be aware of level of technicality of the
journal.
28
Other issues
Journal submissions
Almost all journals now prefer online
submissions. Dont send hard copies.
Make sure you cite relevant papers from
the journal you submit to.
Read the author guidelines and try to
follow them.
Choose a journal that covers your topic.
Be aware of level of technicality of the
journal.
Be aware of balance of theory and
application of the journal.
28
Other issues
After rejection
Most journal submissions are rejected. My
own journal rejects more than 80% of the
papers submitted.
29
Other issues
After rejection
Most journal submissions are rejected. My
own journal rejects more than 80% of the
papers submitted.
Dont be disheartened.
29
Other issues
After rejection
Most journal submissions are rejected. My
own journal rejects more than 80% of the
papers submitted.
Dont be disheartened.
Revise the paper based on the editors
(and possibly referees) comments, and
send it somewhere else.
29
Other issues
After rejection
Most journal submissions are rejected. My
own journal rejects more than 80% of the
papers submitted.
Dont be disheartened.
Revise the paper based on the editors
(and possibly referees) comments, and
send it somewhere else.
Where appropriate, invite a coauthor to
help improve the paper.
29
Other issues
After rejection
Most journal submissions are rejected. My
own journal rejects more than 80% of the
papers submitted.
Dont be disheartened.
Revise the paper based on the editors
(and possibly referees) comments, and
send it somewhere else.
Where appropriate, invite a coauthor to
help improve the paper.
Be realistic about where you send it.
29
Other issues
After rejection
Most journal submissions are rejected. My
own journal rejects more than 80% of the
papers submitted.
Dont be disheartened.
Revise the paper based on the editors
(and possibly referees) comments, and
send it somewhere else.
Where appropriate, invite a coauthor to
help improve the paper.
Be realistic about where you send it.
Try at least four journals before giving up.
29
Other issues
After rejection
Most journal submissions are rejected. My
own journal rejects more than 80% of the
papers submitted.
Dont be disheartened.
Revise the paper based on the editors
(and possibly referees) comments, and
send it somewhere else.
Where appropriate, invite a coauthor to
help improve the paper.
Be realistic about where you send it.
Try at least four journals before giving up.
One of my best papers was rejected at the
journal I now edit!
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Other issues
Thank you
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