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Determinacin de la demanda
En el siguiente cuadro 1., se puede observar la demanda histrica del choclo.
Cuadro 1. Demanda histrica del choclo.
Aos
Poblacin
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
109,379
110,910
112,463
114,038
115,634
117,253
Demanda promedio
mensual (kg)
118.494
120.153
121.835
123.541
125.270
127.024
Proyeccin de la demanda
Posteriormente se realiz una proyeccin de la demanda del choclo pre-cocido,
teniendo como base la informacin histrica recopilada anteriormente.
Poblacin
demandante
118,777
120,321
121,886
123,470
125,075
126,701
128,348
130,017
131,707
133,419
Demanda promedio
mensual
126,645
127,280
127,842
128,347
128,805
129,225
129,613
129,973
130,308
130,623
Determinacin de la oferta
En el siguiente cuadro 3., se puede observar la demanda histrica del choclo.
Cuadro 3. Oferta histrica del choclo.
Aos
Poblacin
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
109,379
110,910
112,463
114,038
115,634
117,253
102.400
104.141
105.911
107.712
109.543
111.405
1,228.800
1,249.690
1,270.934
1,292.540
1,314.513
1,336.860
Proyeccin de la oferta
Posteriormente se realiz una proyeccin de la demanda del choclo pre-cocido,
teniendo como base la informacin histrica recopilada anteriormente.
Poblacin
demandante
118,777
120,321
121,886
123,470
125,075
126,701
128,348
130,017
131,707
133,419
Oferta
efectiva anual
(kg)
Demanda
efectiva anual
(kg)
Demanda
Insatisfecha
(Sin proyecto)
Demanda
Proyecto
Demanda
Insatisfecha
(Con proyecto)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
1,332,027
1,340,120
1,347,299
1,353,754
1,359,619
1,364,996
1,369,962
1,374,575
1,378,883
1,382,926
1,386,734
1,519,745
1,527,356
1,534,101
1,540,160
1,545,662
1,550,702
1,555,352
1,559,671
1,563,702
1,567,482
1,571,041
187,717
187,236
186,802
186,406
186,042
185,705
185,391
185,096
184,818
184,556
184,307
122,016
121,703
121,421
121,164
120,928
120,708
120,504
120,312
120,132
119,961
119,799
65,701
65,533
65,381
65,242
65,115
64,997
64,887
64,784
64,686
64,595
64,507
INVERSIONES
ESTRUCTURA DE LA INVERSIONES
INVERSION TOTAL
Fuentes
Participacin
Tasa
Capital propio
46%
5%
Prstamo
54%
18%
Costo promedio ponderado de capital
Total
2%
10%
12%
COSTOS OPERATIVOS
10
SIN IGV
A. Insumos
Maiz amilceo
choclo
Sorbato de
potasio
Bolsa
B. Salarios
Obrero
Gerente
general
Jefe control de
calidad
Jefe de planta
Chofer
C. Otros Gastos
1,650.00
Impuesto Predial
Impuesto
Alcabala
Impuesto
Patrimonio Vehicular
TOTAL COSTOS SIN
IGV
41,602.16
41,272.24
40,923.41
40,552.20
40,160.88
39,747.20
39,311.15
38,852.74
38,370.77
37,864.32
39,068.40
38,758.65
38,431.05
38,082.45
37,714.95
37,326.45
36,916.95
36,486.45
36,033.90
35,558.25
195.34
193.79
192.16
190.41
188.57
186.63
184.58
182.43
180.17
177.79
2,338.42
2,319.80
2,300.20
2,279.34
2,257.36
2,234.12
2,209.62
2,183.86
2,156.70
2,128.28
127,494.00
127,494.00
127,494.00
127,494.00
127,494.00
127,494.00
127,494.00 127,494.00
127,494.00
127,494.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
155.00
155.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
85.00
85.00
169,251.16
168,921.24
168,487.41
168,116.20
167,724.88
167,311.20
166,875.15 166,416.74
165,934.77
165,428.32
1,650.00
1,650.00
CON IGV
A. Insumos
49,090.55
48,701.25
48,289.62
47,851.60
47,389.84
46,901.70
46,387.16
45,846.24
45,277.51
44,679.90
Maiz amilceo
choclo
46,100.71
45,735.21
45,348.64
44,937.29
44,503.64
44,045.21
43,562.00
43,054.01
42,520.00
41,958.74
Sorbato de
potasio
230.50
228.68
226.74
224.69
222.52
220.23
217.81
215.27
212.60
209.79
2,759.34
2,737.36
2,714.24
2,689.62
2,663.68
2,636.26
2,607.35
2,576.95
2,544.91
2,511.37
Bolsa
B. Salarios
Obrero
Gerente
general
Jefe control de
calidad
Jefe de planta
Chofer
C. Otros Gastos
1,650.00
Impuesto Predial
Impuesto
Alcabala
Impuesto
Patrimonio Vehicular
AB. TOTAL COSTOS
CON IGV 18/
AC. IGV COSTOS
OPERATIVOS 19/
127,494.00
127,494.00
127,494.00
127,494.00
127,494.00
127,494.00
127,494.00 127,494.00
127,494.00
127,494.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
60,480.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
24,390.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
19,512.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
3,600.00
140.00
140.00
140.00
140.00
140.00
140.00
140.00
140.00
140.00
140.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
70.00
176,724.55
176,335.25
175,923.62
175,485.60
175,023.84
174,535.70
174,021.16
173,480.24 172,911.51
7,473.39
7,414.00
7,436.21
7,369.40
7,298.96
7,224.50
7,146.01
1,650.00
1,650.00
-
7,063.49
6,976.74
172,313.90
6,885.58
Mdulo de ingresos
Rubros
S/.
A. Produccin de pollos 1/
122,016.00
B. Merma en la produccin 2/
12,201.60
109,814.40
1.00
109,814.40
3.00
329,443.20
3.54
388,742.98
59,299.78
FINANCIAMIENTO
Ao
A. Principal
Mdulo de Amortizaciones
0
1
2
3
15,453
92,715
77,263
D. Inters
11,126
9,272
7,417
5,563
3,709
1,854
E. Escudo tributario
3,338
2,781
2,225
1,669
1,113
556
C. Saldo de deuda
92,715
B. Amortizacin
1
A. Ventas
netas
B. Costo de
insumos
C. Salarios
D. Costo de
Ventas
F.
Depreciacin
I. Cargas
financieras
J. Utilidad
antes de
impuesto a
la renta
K. Impuesto a
la renta
L. Utilidad
neta
10
329,443.20
329,443.20
329,443.20
329,443.20
41,602.16
41,272.24
40,923.41
40,552.20
40,160.88
39,747.20
39,311.15
38,852.74
38,370.77
37,864.32
63,414.00
63,414.00
63,414.00
63,414.00
63,414.00
63,414.00
63,414.00
63,414.00
63,414.00
63,414.00
64,080.00
64,080.00
64,080.00
64,080.00
64,080.00
64,080.00
64,080.00
64,080.00
64,080.00
64,080.00
3,836.60
3,836.60
3,836.60
3,836.60
3,836.60
1,896.60
1,896.60
1,896.60
1,896.60
1,896.60
11,125.80
9,271.50
7,417.20
5,562.90
3,708.60
1,854.30
145,384.64
147,568.86
149,771.99
151,997.50 154,243.12
158,451.10
160,741.45 161,199.86
161,681.83
162,188.28
43,615.39
44,270.66
44,931.60
48,359.96
48,504.55
48,656.48
101,769.25
103,298.20
104,840.40
112,519.01 112,839.90
113,177.28
113,531.80
46,272.93
47,535.33
106,398.25 107,970.18
110,915.77
329,443.20 329,443.20
329,443.20
45,599.25
329,443.20
48,222.43
388,742.9
8
2
388,742.9
8
3
388,742.9
8
4
388,742.9
8
5
388,742.9
8
6
388,742.9
8
7
388,742.9
8
8
388,742.9
8
9
388,742.9
8
10
52,510.00
49,090.55
127,494.00
48,701.25
127,494.00
48,289.62
127,494.00
47,851.60
127,494.00
47,389.84
127,494.00
46,901.70
127,494.00
46,387.16
127,494.00
45,846.24
127,494.00
45,277.51
127,494.00
44,679.90
127,494.00
-1,650.00
-140.00
-140.00
-140.00
-140.00
-140.00
-140.00
-140.00
-140.00
-140.00
-140.00
-1,650.00
176,724.55
176,335.25
175,923.62
175,485.60
175,023.84
174,535.70
174,021.16
173,480.24
172,911.51
172,313.90
81,119.05
174,364.65
92,715.00
92,715.00
Liquidaci
n
388,742.9
8
91,595.60
E. Salarios 5/
F. Otros
gastos 6/
Subtotal
Costos
G. Cambio
de capital de
trabajo 7/
H. IGV por
pagar 8/
I. Pago
impuesto a
la renta 9/
J. Flujo de
caja
econmico
(FCE) 10/
K. Flujo de
financiamien
to neto 11/
L. Prestamo
81,119.05
43,950.79
51,885.77
51,863.56
51,930.38
52,000.82
52,075.28
52,153.77
52,236.28
52,323.04
52,414.20
43,615.39
44,270.66
44,931.60
45,599.25
46,272.93
47,535.33
48,222.43
48,359.96
48,504.55
48,656.48
124,452.2
5
23,240.56
116,251.3
0
21,942.55
116,024.2
0
20,644.54
115,727.7
5
19,346.53
115,445.3
8
18,048.52
114,596.6
7
16,750.51
114,345.6
1
114,666.5
0
115,003.8
8
115,358.4
0
-8,010.00
125,619.0
5
M.
Amortizacin
de capital
N. Pago de
intereses
O. Escudo
tributario
P. Flujo de
caja
financiero
81,649.65
(FCF) 12/
Q. Factor de
1
actualizacin
Flujo de caja
econmico
-174,364.65
actualizado
Flujo de caja
financiero
-81,649.65
actualizado
Flujo de caja
econmico
-174,364.65
actualizado
acumulado
Flujo de caja
descontado
Flujo de caja
financiero
-81,649.65
actualizado
acumulado
Flujo de caja
descontado
15,452.50
15,452.50
15,452.50
15,452.50
15,452.50
15,452.50
11,125.80
-9,271.50
-7,417.20
-5,562.90
-3,708.60
-1,854.30
3,337.74
2,781.45
2,225.16
1,668.87
1,112.58
556.29
101,211.6
9
94,308.75
95,379.66
96,381.22
97,396.86
97,846.16
114,345.6
1
114,666.5
0
115,003.8
8
115,358.4
0
0.87
0.76
0.66
0.57
0.50
0.43
0.38
0.33
0.28
0.25
108,219.34
87,902.68
76,287.79
66,167.72
57,396.76
49,543.30
42,986.75
37,484.68
32,691.28
28,514.83
88,010.16
71,310.96
62,713.67
55,106.27
48,423.45
42,301.59
42,986.75
37,484.68
32,691.28
28,514.83
108,219.34
196,122.03
272,409.82
338,577.54
395,974.29
445,517.60
488,504.35
525,989.03
558,680.31
587,195.14
-66,145.31
21,757.38
98,045.17
164,212.89
221,609.64
271,152.95
314,139.70
351,624.38
384,315.66
412,830.49
88,010.16
159,321.13
222,034.80
277,141.07
325,564.53
367,866.12
410,852.87
448,337.55
481,028.83
509,543.67
6,360.51
77,671.47
140,385.15
195,491.42
243,914.87
286,216.47
329,203.22
366,687.90
399,379.18
427,894.01
125,619.0
5
a) EVALUACIN ECONMICA
Los ndices econmicos de rentabilidad del Proyecto, se muestran en el Cuadro
6. Evaluacin econmica.
12%
S/. 521,886.47
1.30
68.24%
1.68
b) EVALUACIN FINANCIERA
Los ndices econmicos de rentabilidad del Proyecto, se muestran en el Cuadro
7. Evaluacin financiera
12%
S/. 530,641.52
1.29
120.73%
0.9
VANF
58,725
41,260
27,665
16,792
7,900
0
-5,772.14
-11,141.84
-15,795.79
-19,868.74
-23,463.55
S/.70,000.00
S/.60,000.00
AN ALI S I S DE S E NS I BI LI DAD - CO S TO DE
CAP I TAL
S/.58,725.15
S/.50,000.00
S/.40,000.00
VAN
S/.30,000.00
S/.20,000.00
S/.41,260.33
S/.27,665.46
S/.16,792.01
S/.10,000.00
7,899.96
S/.0.00
(5,772.14)
(S/.10,000.00)
(11,141.84)
(23,463.55)
(15,795.79)
(19,868.74)
(S/.20,000.00)
(S/.30,000.00)
COK