Demographic Data

How

do we study population?
study requires a knowledge of the
presentation, development and manipulation of
data, mostly mathematical and statistical in nature
Correlation and causation
What is data?
Where does the reliable data come from?
How do you access it?
The

Sources of Data
Censuses
Vital

Statistics
Registers
Sample Surveys
Historical records such as church records
Administrative data
Wherever data is recorded in a systematic way
Population

Census
Formal

way of measuring the numbers, types and

attitudes of a particular population
Ancient concept
Defined by the UN as the total process of
collecting, compiling and publishing demographic,
economic and social data pertaining, at specific
time or times, to all persons in the country or
region

Census Definition
Process

based
Publication essential
Inclusion of social, economic and enumerative data
Cross-sectional and therefore limited analysis**
All personsproblems with this concept occur in
the realization of this goal and affect reliability

Census
From

the Roman word for assessing and taxing

purpose was to see where the taxpayers
were to increase reliability of getting tax money
English tradition began with William the
Conqueror
Hearths not people
Statistic from the German meaning facts about the
state
Original

Census
the 19th century, the census process came to be
viewed as a tool to measure the numbers of the
population and their vital statistics such as
education, wealth and marital status
Between 1975 and 1984, 89% of the countries had
a census covering 96% of the world population
Problems with the reliability of the census mostly
are political and ideological
In

US Census
Constitutional

mandate

10

years
everyone (complete enumeration)
No sampling
Questions reflect the social issues of the time
Example race and ethnicitymulti-racial peoples
Contains a short form and a long form
count

Who is included?
Everyone

is the mandate
Process not that easy
De facto populationeveryone at a particular
place at a particular time
De jure population people who legally reside in
the census area
Balancing of those persons

Who is counted?
Residents in the census tract
Usual residencewhere you sleep normally
College students at school
Homeless where you find them
Undocumented aliens
Not visitors or tourists
Military and foreign service persons where they normally
live when hereissue of the Mormons

Adjustments
Concept

of the differential undercount

Adjustments can be done but not used for
apportionment, redistricting or distribution of
governmental resources
90% the normal way
The other 10% by samplingrecently denied
funding by Congress

Coverage Errors
Most

common errors are coverage (did you get

everyone) and content (was the information
accurate)
Some people not counted (undercounts) and some
counted twice (overcounts)
The combination of the under and over counts is
the coverage error
Real problem is the differential undercountwhy?

Differential Undercount
Mainly

an issue of race and ethnicity in the US

groups less likely to be included than

Minority

whites

Overall

undercount approx. 1-3% but double of

African Americans
Even worse for Latinos
Decreased by better address identification, and
advertising campaigns

Measurement of Coverage Error

Demographic

analysisuse the demographic

balancing equation
population at time 2 is equal to the population at
time 1 plus births minus deaths plus inmigrants
minus outmigrants during the intervening period
If you do not have adequate vital statistics of the
parts of the equation, the number will be less
reliable

Measurement of Coverage Error

Dual

system estimationcomparison of census

results with other sources of enumeration of people
ACE survey
Problem with persons missed by the survey and the
census
Recapture concept

Content Error
Accuracy

of the data obtained

Nonresponse
Wrong response
More highly developed countries have more
reliable data
Sampling error
Continuous measurement

Canada and Mexico

Canadian

census every 5 yearssmaller

population
Short and long forms as in the US
Do accept survey adjustments
Mexico
Combination of censal and demographic
information, Less detail, adjusted by demographic
analysis

Vital Statistics
Birth

Certificates
Death Certificates
Marriage, divorce and abortion events
Compiled as vital statistics
Population registers in other countries
Examples on pages 64-65 in the text

Vital Statistics
Graunt,

Halleymortality probabilities
Combining vital statistics and censuses
Increase reliability
Intercensalbetween the census

Administrative Data
Important

source of immigration data

INS
Administrative

records can be used to count in and

out migration
Also include airline records and border crossings
Matching Social Security records with migrants
Measure geographic mobility

Sample Surveys
Problem

with the census is a] useful for

demographic analysis mostly and b] prone to
differential errors
Samples supply all sorts of data and if done with
rigid random samples and efforts at complete
coverage can cure the errors of censuses
May suggest causation of trends in populations

Surveys
American Community Survey, Current Population Survey
are adjuncts to the census and intercensal
Survey on Income and Program Participation
American Housing Survey
Family Growth and NHIS surveys
Labor Force Survey
World Fertility Survey
US and UN are major surveyors, NGOs fund them as well

Historical Sources
Church

and hospital records

Churches in past have been the repositories of
death and birth data
Conjugal families and the extended family myth
Used to define causation in terms of present data
and historical trends

GIS
Geographic Information Systems
Combine mapping and location with demographic data
Computer based
DIME (dual independent map encoding)
TIGER (Topological Integrated Geographic Encoding and
Referencing)
Master address filesphone books and yellow pages

Surveillance Systems
Found

in Bangladesh, South Africa

In US may be an invasion of privacy
Canvassing of households in a region to collect
continuous data on births, deaths and migration on
a continuing basis for use as a sampling frame and
for other data collection issues

Where is this information?

Census

data on disk
Sanitized to prevent invasion of privacy
Demographic yearbook
Population Bulletin
Statistical Abstract of the United States
Juried Journals
IPCSR for surveys

Who uses this data?

Government
Business
NGOs
For

social, economic and political planning

and academics
Ordinary people
Improved understanding of human populations
Researchers

Summary
Knowledge

is power
Statistics, properly utilized are powerful tools to
knowledge
Sources of data are government and nongovernment based
Problem of error and the influence of error on
policy and planningissues of political import

Main Points
In order to study population processes you need data of
births, deaths and migration plus assessments of why these
processes change
Census is basic to this process
Most of the world has undergone a census in the last two
decadesrecent information plentiful and available for
use
US every 10 years, Canada 5 years and others sporadic

Main Points
Error

makes census less reliablecoverage,

sampling and content are the error types
Coverage error combatted by demographic
analysis and dual system intercensal checks
Vital statistics cross-check the census in many
countries
Population Registries
Samples can be sources of data

Main Points
Historical

records provide a context for analysis

and causation
New Methods of analysis such as surveillance
systems and GIS make data more reliable

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