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International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)

Volume 6, Issue 10, Oct 2015, pp. 36-45, Article ID: IJCIET_06_10_004
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ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316
IAEME Publication
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HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS DUE TO


LAND-USE AND LAND-COVER CHANGES
OF KETAR WATERSHED, LAKE ZIWAY
CATCHMENT, ETHIOPIA
Damte w Fufa Tufa
Research Scholar (Foreign Category) Department of Civil Engineering,
College of Engineering (A), Andhra University, Visakhapatnam-530003
Ye rramsetty Abbulu
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering,
College of Engineering (A), Andhra University, Visakhapatnam-530003
G. V. R. Srinivasa Rao
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering (A),
Andhra University, Visakhapatnam-530003
ABSTRACT
Human health and welfare, food security and industrial developments are
dependent on adequate supplies of suitable water; however, water resources
are finite in space and time and affected by many parameters. One of the
parameters that affect the volume of water flowing in a watershed is land-use
and land-cover of the watershed area. Having investigated the influence of
human induced abstractions and its impact on the hydrology of the basin, it is
also important to investigate of land-use/land-cover changes within the basin
and their impacts on the hydrological regime. Based on this the main
objectives of this study is to assess the temporal impacts of land-use and landcover changes on stream flow of Ketar river which is located at south east
central part of Ethiopia. The study also evaluated land-use and land-cover
changes between 1986 and 2010 years and its impact on watershed hydrology.
Classifications of historical land-use and land-cover changes occurred in the
watershed were performed using 1986 and 2010 years satellite images with
the help of ERDAS and GIS software. To investigate the impacts of land-use
and land-cover change on stream flow, Semi-distributed hydrological model,
Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied. Following to model
sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation was performed using historical
recorded river flow data. The analysis result of land-use and land-cover
change show that, an outspread of agricultural land and settlement and

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Hydrological Impacts due to Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes of Ketar Watershed, Lake
Ziway Catchment, Ethiopia

reduction of forest land and grass land in the study area. The evaluation of the
SWAT model response to the land-use/land-cover change indicate that, the
mean wet monthly flow for 2010 land cover increased by 3.8% compared to
the 1986 land cover. On the other hand, average monthly flow in dry season is
decreased by 12.3% in 2010 compared to 1986 land-cover. It is concluded
that because of increasing number of population in alarming rates, it is
expected that, the existing marginal lands at present will changed to
agricultural lands which can affect health of hydrological process within the
watershed and thereby threatens the livelihoods of the inhabitants.
Key words : Water resource, Ketar watershed, land-use/land-cover and SWAT
Cite this Article: Tufa, D. F., Abbulu, Y. and Srinivasa Rao, G. V. R.
Hydrological Impacts due to Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes of Ketar
Watershed, Lake Ziway Catchment, Ethiopia. International Journal of Civil
Engineering and Technology, 6(10), 2015, pp. 36-45.
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=6&IType=10
_____________________________________________________________________

1. INTRODUCTION
Human health and welfare, food security and industrial developments are dependent
on adequate supplies of suitable water; however, water resources are finite in space
and time and affected by many parameters. Establishing a relationship among these
parameters is the central focus of hydrological modeling from its simple form of unit
hydrograph to rather complex models based on fully dynamic flow equations. One of
the parameters that affect the volume of water flowing in a watershed is landUse/Land-cover (LULC) of the watershed area. Land-Use/Land-Cover Change
(LULCC) can be driven by multiple forces; demographic trends, climate variability,
national policies, and macroeconomic activities which in turn have significant impact
on hydrologic system both at a basin and regional scales [1, 2]. An evidence from
several study show that high conversion of forest vege tation land to agricultural and
pasture land in developing country, particularly in Africa including Ethiopia (for
instance, [3, 1, 4]). For instance, in East Africa, nearly 13 million hectares of original
forest were lost in 20 year period, and the remaining forest is fragmented and
continually under threat [5]. In Ethiopia, the annual deforestation rate was calculated
at 163,600 ha and the ongoing deforestation is a result of the very high human
pressure on the natural resources [6]. However, Intensity of change may vary spatially
as well as temporally due to the distribution and characteristic of population across
the landscape. To visualize the future effects of LULCCs on river flow, it is important
to have an understanding of the effects of historic land- use changes on the watershed
hydrological system; because of direct and powerful linkages exist among spatially
distributed watershed properties and watershed processes [7].
Having investigated the influence of human induced abstractions and its impact on
the hydrology of the basin, it is also important to investigate of land-use/land-cover
changes within the basin and their impacts o n the hydrological regime. The spatiotemporal variability of LULCC, climate change and management practice in the
watershed are extremely challenging to water resource management at watershed
level. The demand of water abstraction by ever increasing number of human
population and development of irrigation project at various scales within the river
basin makes the problem more worsen. In addition, more mountainous and steeper
slopes are cultivated, in many cases without protective measures against land erosion
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Damtew Fufa Tufa, Yerramsetty Abbulu and G. V. R. Srinivasa Rao

and degradation. Hence, investigating the relationship between land-use/land-cover


and the hydrological condition (runoff volume, peak runoff rate, and total sediment
yield) of the area enables us to know how the quantity of water flowing to the
reservoir is changed with the change of land use. As a result, the need for scientific
research that establishes the impact of land- use changes on stream flow is essential.
The knowledge of the influence of land-use change on watershed hydrology are
helpful for local governments and policy makers to formulate and implement effective
and appropriate response strategies to minimize the adverse effects of future land- use
change or modifications.
Hence the objectives of this study is to evaluate past land-use/land-cover change
between two periods and assess the impact of land- use/land-cover change on stream
flow of Ketar watershed by using a semi-distributed hydrologic model, Soil and
Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) [8].

2. STUDY AREA
2.1. Description of Study Area
Ketar watershed covers 3225.3 square kilometres (km2 ) is part of the Ziway Shala
basin, an internal drainage basin located in the central part of the Main Ethiopian Rift
Valley (Figure 1). Geographically it is located between 721'33"89'53" north of
latitude and 3853'57"3924'46" east of longitude. The latter is a NNE SSW structure
down-faulted through the Ethiopian highlands. Ketar River and its tributaries drain from
south east highland area to North West and enter Lake Ziway. This lake is the most
northerly of the Main Ethiopian Rift Valley lakes, and is fed principally by rivers
draining the south eastern and north western plateaux and escarpments. The over flow
of Lake Ziway feeds Lake Abiyata to the south. Topographically, the Ketar catchment
shows a well pronounced variation with the altitude ranging from around 1646 m amsl.
near Lake Ziway (at the outlet) to about 4171 m amsl, on the high volcanic ridges along
the eastern watershed (chilalo and Galama Mountain).

Figure 1 Location of the study area (Ketar watershed)

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Hydrological Impacts due to Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes of Ketar Watershed, Lake
Ziway Catchment, Ethiopia

3. METHODOLOGY
3.1. Procedures
The steps used for evaluating hydrological responses of watershed as a result of
changes in land- use/land-cover are; first, data base for land-use/land-caver map of
1986 and 2010 were prepared in order to evaluating land-use/land-cover dynamics.
Second, SWAT Simulation run of stream flow was carried out using set of variables
(i.e. land- use and land-cover, soil, topography, and climate) and sensitivity analysis
was conducted to identify the most sensitive flow parameter that affected stream flow.
Third, performance evaluation of SWAT model was undertaken through Calibration
and validation step using measured and simulated stream discharge on annual and
monthly basis and simulation run for the response of stream flow based on calibrated
parameter. Fourth, in order to test the assumption that, land-use/land-cover change has
affected watershed stream flow, further simulations were performed using both landuse/land-cover maps of (1986 and 2010) for the same period.

3.2. Input Data Used


Hydrological modeling using SWAT requires the use of spatially explicit datasets
for land morphology or topography, land-use and land-cover, soil parameters for
hydrological characteristics, and climate and hydrological data on a daily time step
[9]. The main input raw data required to develop an input data base for running the
model and their sources are explained in Table 1.
Table 1 Input variables used in the SWAT model and data sources
Variables
Land-use/land-cover
map
Soil map
Digital Elevation Model
Stream flow
Precipitation
Temperature
Relative humidity
Wind
Solar radiation

Data sources
Landsat 5 thematic mapper (TM), Mapping Authority of Ethiopia
RVLB Master plan, Ministry of Water and Energy of Ethiopia
Ethiopia Mapping agency
Hydrology and irrigation department of Ministry of Water and
Energy of Ethiopia

National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa

DEM used to delineate the topographic features of Ketar watershed in order to


determine the hydrological parameters of the basin such as, slope, flow direction and
accumulation, outlet points and stream network. In order to assess the heterogeneity
of the physical properties, the watershed divided in to 36 sub-basins and each of the
sub-basin re-divided in to 325 HRU based on the homogenous land- use, management,
soil and slope characteristics of the watershed.

3.3. Land-use/land-cover Data Base Establishment


Cloud free Land sat of ETM and ETM+ imageries (path 168; row 54 and 55) that
were acquired in December 1986 and January 2010 were analyzed to classify the
land-use/ land-cover and its historical dynamics of the study area. The mosaics of the

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Damtew Fufa Tufa, Yerramsetty Abbulu and G. V. R. Srinivasa Rao

two scenes (row 54 and 55) covering the whole extent of the study area was prepared.
Generalized land- use/land-cover data generation by ERDAS software is summarized
on the Figure 2 flow chart.

Landsat imagery
21 December 1986
10 January 2010

Layer staking
Mosaic the two scene
Clipping to shape of study
area

Band and color combination


Field Data
Supervised classification with maximum
likelihood algorithm

Land-use/land-covers thematic Map for the


required years

Figure 2 Flow chart for land-use/land-covers change analysis using ERDAS2010.

The generic approach of land- use/land-cover change analysis used is based on


post-classification comparison method, which is commonly employed in land-cover
change detection studies [10]. Identified land-use type during field survey via
supervised land sat satellite image classification by using maximum likelihood
classification algorithm include Agricultural land, Afro-alpine vegetation, Grass land,
Forest land, Shrub land, Built up area and wet lands. In order to evaluate stream flow
variability in relation to land-use/land-cover change at watershed level the two 1986
and 2010 land-use/land-cover map are used.

3.4. Climate Data


The most important input climatic parameters used in the SWAT modeling
includes, precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, humidity, solar
radiation and wind on daily time series of six stations (Areta, Asella, Bekoji,
Kulumsa, Ogolcho and Sagure) found within the watershed were obtained from
National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia (NMAE). However; these climatic
variables are the most sensitive elements in hydrologic process, they are kept

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Hydrological Impacts due to Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes of Ketar Watershed, Lake
Ziway Catchment, Ethiopia

unchanged during simulation of stream flow to analyze impact of land-use/land-cover


changes on water resource availability.

3.5. Soil and Flow Data


Similarly soil digital map is obtained from Ministry of water resource GIS section
and soil physical and chemical properties at different layer were collected from rift
valley lake basins master plan documented by the Ministry of water resources of
Ethiopia. Accordingly, soil data-base of the study area was prepared in suitable format
and appended in SWAT data-base.
Daily time series of stream discharge between 19702010 years were collected
from Ministry of Water Resource, Hydrology section, Ethiopia that has been gauged
at the outlet of the catchment. This data mainly used to evaluate the predictive
capacity of SWAT model through calibration and validation procedures against
measured stream discharge. The data of 19832010 years was divided in to two sets
of period 19831994 and 19952010 corresponding to the land- use/land-cover map of
1986 and 2010 respectively. These sets of data again divided in to two for calibration
and validation period.

3.6. Stream Flow Change Analysis


For the assessment of stream flow change in the watershed due to land-use/landcover changes, land-use/land-cover map of 1986 and 2010 were used while sets of all
other input variables are kept unchanged for both simulations [11]. The parameter
sensitivity analysis was conducted using a combined method of Latin Hypercube
(LH) sampling and One-Factor-At-a-Time (OAT), a LH-OAT that is integrated to
SWAT2009. Following to sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation of the model
was carried out by the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version 2 (SUFI-2) algorithms
of SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP) an interface that was
developed for SWAT [12]. The evaluation of model performance assessment was
applied using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, Coefficient of determination and root
mean square error. After calibrating and validating the model using the two land
use/cover maps for their respective periods, the model was also run using both the
1986 and 2010 land use/cover maps for the period of 19952010 to find out the
impacts introduced on the stream discharge due to the land use/cover change.

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS


The result part of this section reports land use change from1986 to 2010, hydrological
modeling, and change of stream discharge as a result of change in land-use/landcover. Calibration, sensitivity analysis and model performance capacity are also
presented.

4.1. Land Use Change


The result obtained from land- use/land-cover analysis indicated that, agricultural
and built up land- use is increased while grass land and natural forest cover is
decreased. As indicated in Table 2, agricultural land was increased by 27.7% between
1986 and 2010, with annual rate of (15.5 km2 /year). Built up area was increased by
211.3%, while grassland, Natural forest, Afro-alpine vegetation and wet land
decreased by 33.7 %, 53 %, 6.2 and 15% respectively. In contrast, plantation forest is
increased by 117 % with 1.4 km2 annual rate of change. In both periods agricultural

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Damtew Fufa Tufa, Yerramsetty Abbulu and G. V. R. Srinivasa Rao

land is the dominant land use type in the study area, which constitutes 42.6 % and
54.5% in 1986 and 2010 respectively.
Table 2 Land-use/land-cover type and changes in Ketar watershed from 1986 2010 years
LULC
Land-use type

1986
Area
(Km2 )
1401
682
598

LULCC
2010

Area
(%)
42.6
20.8
18.2

Area
(Km2 )
1789
452
561

19862010
Area
(%)
54.5
13.8
17.1

Agricultural land
Grazing/Grassland
Afro-alpine
vegetation
Natural Forest land
499
15.2
235
7.2
Built up land
53
1.6
165
5.0
Plantation forest land
29
0.9
63
1.9
Wetland
20
0.6
17
0.5
Total area
3282
100
3282
100
LULC= Land-use/land-cover, LULCC = Land-use/land-cover change

Rate
(km2 /y)
15.5
-9.2
-1.5

%
27.7
-33.7
-6.2

-10.6
5.72
1.4
-0.12

-52.9
211.3
117.2
-15.0

4.2. Model Sensitivity Analysis, Calibration and Validation


The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that, twelve parameters viz, Curve
Number (CN2), Ground flow recession factor (ALPHA_BF), Soil Evaporation
Compensation coefficient (ESCO), Plant Evaporation Compensation Coefficient
(EPCO), Soil Available Water Capacity (SOL_AWC), Soil Hydraulic conductivity
(SOL_K), Hydraulic conductivity in main channel (CH_K2), Surface runoff lag
coefficient SURLAG, Average slop steepness (HRU_SLP), Groundwater revap
coefficient (GW_REVAP), Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer required
for return flow to occur (GWQMN) and Ground water Delay (GW_DELAY) are the
most essential parameters for the studied watershed. The sensitivity analysis indicated
the overall importance of the twelve parameters in determining the stream flow at the
study area, but CH_K2, CN2 and SOL_K were found to be the most sensitive
parameters than others
The simulated stream flow was calibrated and validated against measured stream
discharge on annual and monthly basis. The result revealed that, monthly coefficient
of determination (R2 ) varied between 0.71 and 0.82 with the highest value is 0.82
during calibration time step. Similarly, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS E) varied
between 0.65 to 0.82 with the highest value of 0.82 during calibration of 2010 landuse map with respect to measured and predicted stream discharge on monthly
calibration and validation time period as shown on Figure 3. This model test values in
both calibration and validation period prove that, SWAT model simulated monthly
stream flow quite satisfactorily against measured stream flow.

4.3. Hydrological Responses to Changes in land Use/cover


As the results of stream flow variability indicate that mean monthly stream flow
during dry season decreased by 12.3%, while during wet season increased by 3.8 %
due to land-use/land-cover change in the 19972010 period. The SURQ, GWQ and
LATQ components of the stream simulated using the 1986 land- use and land-cover
map for 19972010 period are 40.6 %, 56.4 % and 4.1 % while using the 2010 landhttp://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp

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Hydrological Impacts due to Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes of Ketar Watershed, Lake
Ziway Catchment, Ethiopia

use and land-cover map are 45.0 %, 51.7% and 4.5 % respectively. The contribution
of surface runoff has increased from 40.6 % to 45.0 % due to the LULCC occurred
between the period 1986 to 2010.

Simulation

Observed

Simulation

May-05

Dec-04

Jul-04

Feb-04

Sep-03

Jul-01

Jan-01

Jul-00

Jan-00

Jul-99

Jul-98

Jan-99

Jan-98

Jul-97

Apr-03

20

Nov-02

40

Jun-02

60

60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Jan-02

80

River flow (m3/s)

b) Validation (2002-2005)

100

Jan-97

River flow (m3/s)

a) Calibratio (1997-2001)

Observed

Figure 3 Monthly calibration and validation of stream discharge for the period of (1997
2005)

On other hand, the contribution of ground water flow decreased by 4.8 % due to
land-use/land-cover change between 19862010. Figure 4, shows mean monthly
hydrographs of stream flow changes as a result of LULCC in three decades.

Average river flow (m3 /s)

70
60
50
40
30

20
10
0
Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun


Aveg. Flow 1986

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

Aveg. flow2010

Figure 4 Mean monthly stream flow variation due to LULCC at gauging station

5. CONCLUSIONS
From this study, it can be concluded that, land-use/land-cover change in Ketar
watershed is experienced before 1970 and highly significant for the past three
decades. It can be presumed that deforestation natural forest and increase in farmland
that was manifested by the rapid increase in human population has altered the whole
Ketar watershed. The identified land- use/land-cover change during (19862010)
study period, are the overall increase of farmland and built up area over the reduction
of grass land and natural forest area at Ketar watershed.

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Damtew Fufa Tufa, Yerramsetty Abbulu and G. V. R. Srinivasa Rao

Over all, the result of analysis indicated that changing of forest land and grassland
to agricultural land and urban area has altered rainfall-runoff relationship and resulted
in increase wet season surface flow and reduction of dry season water flow. As
explained in the methodology, all input parameters (including climatic, soil, and
slope) are kept unchanged during the simulations so that only the impacts of LULCC
are recognized. It also identified that one of the most important concerns regarding the
conversion of forest to farmland land- use change relates to water availability during
the dry season that reduced the contribution of ground water flow at critical time.
Therefore, as a result of increasing number of population in the study area (Ketar
watershed), it is expected that, existing marginal lands at present will changed to
agricultural lands which can affect health of hydrological process within the
watershed and thereby threatens the livelihoods of inhabitants. Hence the landuse/land-cover change should be controlled in the watershed and some measures
should be taken for the stabilization of the land cover change to sustain the
contribution of groundwater in dry season and ecological bio-diversity within the
basin.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors would like to thankful to Ministry of Water and Energy, National
Meteorological Agency, and Mapping Agency of Ethiopia Government for furnishing
required data we used for conducting this study.

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Ziway Catchment, Ethiopia

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