Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Winning in Fairfax A Tale of Two Districts
Reviewing the GOPs 2015 Losses in Sully & Dranesville
What can the GOP learn and apply in future elections?

By Rollin Reisinger
November 13th, 2015
Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

RReisinger@RollinReisinger.com
Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Preface & Background
An in-depth post-election analysis of the Supervisors races in Fairfax

Countys Dranesville and Sully districts was conducted at the request
of interested parties. Excerpted portions are being released for public
review to assist Republicans in Fairfax County and across the
Commonwealth learn from the various points of success and failure in
the campaigns analyzed. The information and conclusions contained
herein should be considered informative but not exhaustive.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Preface & Background

The following analysis is presented with the genuine hope that a
public and transparent examination of strategic victories and
shortcomings will ultimately spur the necessary party growth and
operational reform required for Republican victory in 2016.
Positive decisions and tactics must be encouraged and replicated
elsewhere, whereas failures, however unpleasant, must serve as
a valuable lesson for the avoidance of future, similar difficulties,
whether in Fairfax County or elsewhere in Virginia.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Presentation Contents
2015 Election Summary / Recap
What happened in Sully and Dranesville, generally?
Election Results & Financial Comparison
Fairfax County An Overview
How the GOP Must Run to Win in Fairfax
Sully & Dranesville District Results/Breakdowns, in Detail

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
2015 Election Summary / Recap

The balance of power in Virginias General Assembly remains unchanged.
Republicans still control both chambers, however the GOPs Senate majority still
does not permit even one single defection.
The GOP controls 66 House seats, down one from before elections.
The GOP controls 21 Senate seats, a change of zero from last session.
Republicans failed to capitalize on key opportunities in off-year elections.
Unnecessary losses are indeed a failing which must be addressed.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
2015 Election Summary / Recap - NoVA

Republicans lost key seats in Northern Virginia
Predominately Fairfax-based seat of retiring Del. Tom Rust (HD86) was lost to
Democrats. Boysko (D) finished +12.4% over GOP candidate Vargas. HD86 (+18%
Warner, +20% McAuliffe, +25% Northam, +21% Obama) was widely considered
lost. Delegate Rusts bipartisanship and incumbency carried this seat for years.
Loudoun/PWC seat of retiring Del. David Ramadan (HD87) was also lost. Bell (D)
finished +1.6% over GOP candidate Nguyen. House District 87 (+6% Warner, +11
McAuliffe, +15% Northam, +14% Obama) was widely considered a GOP hold.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

Republican Craig Parisot failed to recapture former Delegate Barbara Comstocks
34th District seat from first-term Democratic incumbent Kathleen Murphy.
This race absolutely could have been won.
The disaster in Sully consumed GOP resources which could have helped Parisot.
This Republican loss highlights the need for substantial improvement in countylevel GOP organization, outreach, data, fundraising, and campaign mechanics.
Republicans must also learn from this loss however HD34 is a separate subject.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

The balance of power on Fairfaxs Board of Supervisors remains unchanged.
Democrats control the board by a margin of 8-2.
The GOP lost one entirely winnable supervisors race, and a plausibly winnable 2nd.
Fairfax GOP voters should have expected a 7-3 board, and reasonably hoped for a
6-4 board. Data demonstrates the reasonableness of these projections.
Sully District should have been won. Dranesville was plausibly winnable and in play.
Fairfax Republicans must learn the lessons of 2015 for future election cycles.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
What Happened in Sully and Dranesville, Generally?

In Sully District, John Guevara (R) lost to Kathy Smith (D) in an easily-winnable
race for the GOP. The district is currently represented by retiring supervisor Michael
Frey (R), who maintains strong bipartisan favorability, but couldnt save Guevara.
In Dranesville District, Jennifer Chronis (R) lost to incumbent John Foust (D) in a
difficult but plausibly winnable race. While Dems maintain a partisan advantage in
district, Fousts policy failures and heightened image of partisanship from his failed
2014 US House race opened the door to a mainstream GOP challenger for this seat.
Numbers read on!
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville and Sully Losses, by the Numbers

Foust won Dranesville +8.6% over Chronis.
Smith won Sully +3.7% over Guevara.
Further insight into these losses and the future of winning Republican campaigns in
Fairfax County may be gained from a comparative analysis of each races returns.
How do we gauge the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate? We compare
them to candidates for other seats of their same party in the same precincts.
Example: Del. Hugo ran in parts of Sully, Parisot ran in parts of Dranesville.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville and Sully Losses Making the Comparison

Analysis was limited to precincts where a contested legislative seat provided a basis
for comparing each candidate for supervisor to fellow members of their own party.
Comparing supervisor candidates without a benchmark fails to fully explore their
relative strengths and weaknesses, and what those mean for future elections.
Comparisons to federal or gubernatorial years can be misleading as each years
electorate has its own unique composition. In 2015, turnout in Dranesville and Sully
was 37.7% and 29.1%, respectively analysis must be limited to this electorate.
Relative over/under performance is a measure of what voters seek in candidates.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville and Sully The Broad Comparison

Numbers below compare each supervisor candidate to House and Senate
candidates of their own party in contested races in overlapping precincts.
These results speak for themselves! However, let further analysis commence.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

Top Other Race indicates the strongest same-party performance for contested
legislative races, broken down for each Supervisor candidate by their own party.
Ex: In Chroniss Dranesville, Parisot (House) and Forakis (Senate) each did better in
certain precincts. Top Other examines how each Sup. candidate did in relation to
the best other candidate in their own party one measure of candidate strength.
The spread measures difference
between each Sup. candidates
performance among own party.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

Vote % The most common measure of election results each candidates
percentage of votes cast in their own race. (100 votes, 55 A, 45 B A has 55%)
Vote share measures dropoff and undervoting. Share is % of all ballots cast. If A
wins 55, B wins 45, but 120 ballots were cast, As share is 45.8%, not 55%.
Supervisor races are down ballot and do not include a partisan (R/D) identifier.
Fewer votes are typically cast
down ballot and in races (Sup.)
with no party ID on the ballot.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville Chronis Leads GOP, Foust Lags Dems

Chronis outperformed the GOP field, taking top vote % in 17/21 analyzed precincts.
Despite being down ballot & listed non-partisan, Chronis received more total votes
than up ballot candidates by leading the GOP fields vote share in 14/21 precincts.
Despite his incumbency, Foust trailed the Democratic field by both measures,
posting a tied or leading % and vote share in only 3/21 precincts.
Foust did not exceed his ticket
mates vote % in any precinct.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Guevara Lags Far Behind Smith

Guevara trailed the GOP field 6.6% and 7.7% by vote % and share, respectively.
Guevara led fields vote % in only 2/18 precincts and led vote share in only 1/18.
Guevara trailed GOP ticket mates vote % and share by > 10% in 5/18 & 6/18 pcts.
Guevara trailed all GOP ticket mates by both measures, cumulatively.
Guevara alienated many centerright independents, trailing GOP
field more than Smith led Dems.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Smith Captures Votes Guevara Loses

Smith did translate Guevaras failures into some votes outperforming her Dem
ticket mates in vote % and share in 15/18 and 14/18 precincts, respectively.
Smith outperformed ALL Dem. ballot mates by ALL measures leading Dems in
total votes despite being down ballot. Guevaras loss was partly Smiths gain.
Guevara trailed GOP ticket mates vote % and share by > 10% in 5/18 & 6/18 pcts.
Contrary to certain agendadriven narratives, Guevara did
heavily lose centrist voters.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Guevaras Loss is Only Partly Smiths Gain

How do we know Guevara lost moderate voters? Simple:
substantial numbers of voters split ballots across party
lines for Del. Hugo and Sup. Smith.
Hugo ran on mainstream accomplishments and
endorsements (e.g., VEA) with bipartisan appeal.
Guevara lagged GOP ticket more than Smith outperformed Dem ticket key indicator.
Despite Smith picking up center-right moderates, others lacked confidence in Guevara and
undervoted an expected result. Likewise, Smith also suffered Democratic undervoting.
More undervoting in Sully than Dranesville some derives from lowered profile / less spending,
however the candidate weakness factor cannot be ignored.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Smiths Redistricting Baggage Drives Undervotes

As a school board member, Kathy Smith supported a controversial plan in 2008 to redraw
boundary lines for in-district high schools. Consequently, some families lost access to their
preferred schools, while others found themselves with children attending multiple high schools.
Smiths vote for this plan alienated voters across party lines in the 3 affected precincts. Non-trivial
numbers of Democrats undervoted the race resulting from their personal dislike for Smith.
This issue received media attention when a Democrat assaulted Smith during her neighborhood
canvass, out of frustration over the assailants children being split among two schools.
Losing votes over this contentious issue hurt Smiths campaign her ability to win in spite of
Democratic undervoting underscores the fundamental weaknesses of Guevaras campaign.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Guevara Melts Down at Debate

The August 31st candidate debate ended in disaster for Guevara. After opening with a productive,
on-message performance, Guevara broke message discipline, closing with a swipe against Smiths
family, followed by a fiery invocation of the ongoing gender controversy in school restrooms.
Polling doesnt lie. Though insiders care about this issue, the broader electorate does not cite it as
a top issue. Guevara lost votes both for his position itself, as well as what voters perceived as
misplaced priorities in a race which they believed should focus on transportation and education.
By breaking message discipline, Guevara confirmed and reinforced criticism of his candidacy.
Though the issue is not a top issue, and would not move many votes by itself, Guevaras
mishandling of it crystallized public opinion concerning his position in the political spectrum.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Its Not About who is Right on the National Stage

Much commentary concerning the Sully race improperly focuses on which party faction is right
This race is not about whether the Tea Party is right or wrong on a national stage, or whether Mitch
McConnells approach is more or less meritorious than Ted Cruzs. Leave this baggage at the door.
This race is about Sully District, where voters want a centrist, issue-oriented problem solver
focusing on transportation and education. The GOP candidate should reflect the districts needs.
Sully District
Isnt About
These Guys!
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
The Press Will Always be a Factor

Nominating a candidate who wasnt a good fit for the district opened the door to easily-avoided
attacks which reinforced voter suspicions and synergized with the oppositions messaging.
While the GOP shouldnt expect
glowing endorsements from WaPo,
it must anticipate what will be written.
Nominating a mainstream GOP candidate
who is a good fit for Sully District,
specifically, would have defused media
or Democratic efforts to define the candidate
as toxic, too extreme, or a Tea Partier.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Politics is Chess, not Checkers

Successful campaigns anticipate the actions of every player in the game media, Democrats, etc.
Nominating a candidate who was a poor fit for Sully District was sure to invite criticism from media
and Democrats which validated and reinforced
existing suspicions among essential centrist voters.
Whether YOU think these attacks are fair or unfair,
right or wrong doesnt matter that judgement
is ultimately made by all voters on election day.
Want to win? Anticipate the oppositions moves,
their attacks, and prepare to win in advance.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
What About Dranesville?

To the surprise of no one, the Washington Post also endorsed Foust, ultimately working in criticism
of Chronis though their endorsement took a less damaging form.
WaPos criticism of Chronis was not
able to reinforce centrist suspicions
of GOP stereotypes as she was a
mainstream candidate right for the district.
WaPos issue criticism was disbelievable
among voters receiving Chroniss heavy
issue-oriented communications who found
her platform and claims to be credible.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Supervisor Fundraising and Expenditures
Chart depicts cumulative fundraising & expenditures by Sully candidates. Data sourced from SBE on Nov. 10th. Data post Oct. 22nd is limited to last minute reports of cash and in-kind party mail.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

Guevara was adequately funded, slightly outraising Smith. Contrary to a false, emergent Internet
narrative, GOP financiers never abandoned Guevara support persisted despite troubles.
Guevara overspent on staff early, limiting funds available for later paid comms. / rapid response.
Traditionally, field operations are most effective following a candidates introduction to the
electorate. Guevaras early overspending on field ops. reduced staff and volunteers to little more
than postmen, delivering information to an electorate not yet in an appropriate election mindset.
In a low-turnout election, funds must be laser focused on those likely to vote or those whose voting
propensity can be modified in a cost-effective manner. Guevaras underspending on paid
communications deprived his campaign of the ability to drive message among the likely electorate.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

In the end, Guevaras depleted war chest was insufficient to yield an appropriate message weight,
both in positive definition, as well as provide for rapid response to oppositional attacks.
Guevara sent six rounds of mail (not enough given circumstances) and placed no digital ad buys.
Guevara failed to translate his early fundraising and organizational advantage into campaign
momentum. Smiths campaign had both the first and the last word among the electorate at large.
Guevara waited too long to positively define himself among the electorate. Smiths efforts to brand
him as a tea party candidate with radical views succeeded, putting Guevara on the defensive.
Poor funding allocation deprived Guevaras campaign of its ability to respond to Smiths negative
mail with a poll-tested rebuttal/counterattack, let alone rebuild image through sheer msg. weight.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

Guevara might have won with substantially more money spent through higher quality paid
communications vendors but its an expensive and speculative path which was ultimately
unnecessary, if the GOP had nominated a candidate well-matched to this specific district.
Running a candidate who is a poor fit for the district will always require an expensive path to
victory. Money may be message, but every campaign faces diminishing returns and ultimate futility.
By contrast, Smith would have likely won with tens of thousands of dollars less, even though
Democrats did shift money out of Sully district to closer races elsewhere.
Smiths mail hit Guevara like a wrecking ball and still would have on a smaller budget.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Dominoes Start Falling in a Chain Reaction

Given the endorsement from retiring GOP supervisor Frey, strong legislative candidates, and
Smiths baggage on school boundaries, Sully should have been an easy ten point GOP victory.
This easy GOP victory in Sully could have been achieved with 2/3 or less of Guevaras budget
freeing up tens of thousands of dollars and thousands of volunteer hours for tougher districts,
such as HD-34 (Parisot). Instead, resources remained in Sully for an unnecessarily difficult race.
Meanwhile, Dems knew they had an easy victory, requiring a basic mail blitz to
brand Guevara as Tea Party in a centrist district then watch him sink.
As a result of this easy race, Dems moved money and manpower
out of Sully, using it against Republicans in tougher races elsewhere.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Dominoes Start Falling in a Chain Reaction

One race which needed more GOP money and manpower was Craig Parisots race in HD34 against
incumbent Democrat Kathleen Murphy. Though Sully doesnt overlap HD34, and not all money or
volunteer hours are fungible, some could have been shifted, to Parisots benefit.
Nominating candidates poorly matched to the Fairfax political landscape diminishes the GOPs
brand county-wide, increasing difficulty elsewhere.
Defeating Kathleen Murphy was a top priority, given her
status as the leading Dem. challenger to Comstock in 2016.
Remember what happened in Sully if Comstock faces a
challenge from Fairfax incumbent Kathleen Murphy in 2016.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville Supervisor Fundraising and Expenditures
Chart depicts cumulative fundraising & expenditures by Dranesville candidates. Data sourced from SBE on Nov. 10th. Data post Oct. 22nd limited to last minute reports of cash and in-kind party mail.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville Supervisor Fundraising and Expenditures

As in Sully, both candidates raised similar amounts of money, and both had budgets generally
adequate for meeting all major needs but unlike Sully, the money was spent constructively.
Both candidates buried the district in mail. Chronis was alone on digital, but didnt allocate enough.
Chronis ran an extensive paid knocking operation using summer labor unlike Guevara, she had
warmed up the target universe, making conversations productive and returning actionable data.
Ultimately, she appears to have been short on funds for rebutting Fousts last-minute false attacks,
but given their appearance at the closing of the mail window, rebuttal would have been entirely
digital and probably couldnt have completely undone the damage.
Bottom line: both sides generally allocated their money wisely through professional vendors.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Comparing Candidates Paid Communications

Based upon information available as of Nov.12th, candidates spent the following percentage of total
documented fundraising and expenses on paid communications (mail, digital, radio, etc):
Guevara:
32%
Smith:
56%
Chronis:
61%
Foust:
40%
Newcomers and challengers need to communicate that requires setting budget priorities.
Unknown candidates cant expect to first appear in mailboxes on Oct. 13th and be seen as credible.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Mail Quality It Matters

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Mail Quality & Quantity It Matters

According to finance records, Chronis sent ~17 rounds of mail while Guevara sent ~6.
Weight of message matters. Chronis was able to communicate and reinforce her key points,
whereas Guevaras inability to raise funds and prioritize mail reduced his ability to communicate.
Chroniss mail met voter expectations, reinforcing her image as a credible, professional candidate.
Chronis remained on-message and on-tone in her mail key in building swing support.
Guevaras wretchedly low quality mail undermined his credibility and distracted from his message.
Guevaras mail failed in both quality and message its Microsoft Word-esque feel would have been
unbecoming of a candidate for PTA, let alone for a full-time supervisor in Fairfax County.
Guevaras mail lacked detail, strayed randomly, and generally failed to drive message.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

Again, seriously?
SERIOUSLY???
Voters expect better in a
race of this magnitude.
Falling short defines the
candidate as not credible
and unprofessional.
In-house Word-esque
mail is a colossal failure.
Hire a professional mail
consultant.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

Smith bombarded Guevara with round after round of attack mail. As both election results and
anecdotal reports show, voters perceived these attacks as credible.
Attacks must overcome voter skepticism. Who appears more credible?

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully In Conclusion / Memoriam

The Fairfax GOP had an opportunity to win Sully by ten points given the districts mechanics, the
reputations of endorsers / key influencers, and the Democratic candidates baggage.
The GOP nominated a candidate who was a poor fit for the district in an exclusionary process.
This poorly-fitting candidate reinforced his non-mainstream image through extreme statements and
misplaced priorities, such as dredging up the schools bathroom controversy (polling shows this
issue to be considered important by < 3% of likely voters way, way off message).
Guevara reinforced his uncredible image through a lousy and late mail campaign, while Smith
played mostly by the textbook, overall.
As experts predicted, Smith defined Guevara as a Tea Party candidate and cruised to easy victory.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully In Conclusion / Memoriam

Though Guevara did score some campaign victories, such as his voter-direct transportation / online
engagement campaign, he just could not maintain message discipline and he paid for it.
This race needlessly squandered both GOP resources and the partys community goodwill.
By nominating a candidate mismatched to the district, data collected isnt very useful for 2016.
In the process, GOP money and manpower remained in Sully for a race made unnecessarily
difficult, while Democrats shifted resources out of Sully to defeat Republicans elsewhere.
Would the GOP money and manpower which could have been freed up by nominating Schoeneman
or Litzenberger been enough to carry Parisot to victory? Well never know for sure, but supporters
of Parisot have every right to be angry over the disastrous GOP meltdown in Sully.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville In Conclusion
This race would have been difficult for any Republican to win with any strategy not including
Democratic scandal, given the districts inherent surplus of Democrats and center-left voters.
Whereas Sully was an open seat, Foust was buoyed by benefit of incumbency in Dranesville.
Chronis remained on-message and focused on mainstream issues tested to be top priorities among
likely voters, drawing clear contrasts with Fousts record where voters perceived it as failing.
Chronis generally spent her money wisely, through professional vendors, boosting her credibility.
While Chronis stumbled at times as a first-time candidate, no major mistakes or gaffes were made.
So where did it go wrong?
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Among controllable reasons, Chronis lost because:
#1: She was unable to escape Fousts poll-tested, lastminute false smear campaign, hitting her on guns and
education. Already battling GOP stereotypes, short of time,
and low on funding, she wasnt able to rebut the attacks,
nor did mainstream media fact check Fousts claims.
Evidence suggests Chronis within striking range. On Oct.
15th, Foust spent heavily on polling / message testing (see
cost) just before rolling out smear campaign. Foust
going negative appears to be well-calculated.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
#2: Chroniss campaign appears to have been too indiscriminate in targeting, spending too little
time and money flipping the districts surplus of soft-D / centrist voters.
#3: The Fairfax GOP is routinely out-organized, out-worked, and out-spent by Fairfax Democrats.
While an inherent gap does exist, the GOP must work on closing it through growth and reform.
Campaigns must dialogue with slightly unfavorable high-propensity voters! Turnout alone is not a
winning strategy for many GOP campaigns and certainly not in most areas in Fairfax.
In the end, while unsuccessful, Chronis pushed the envelope for Republicans in difficult districts,
ultimately outperforming ballot mates, building community goodwill, and bringing back useful data
for future victory efforts. Fairfax Republicans are stronger as a result of her campaign.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Finance Comparison Fairfax Party Committees

As expected, Fairfax Democrats raised and spent more money, even when accounting for joint
expenses being coordinated through the county committee a helpful election strategy.
This disparity in local committee organizational strength yields real impacts on elections.
Fairfax Republicans must strengthen organizational efforts for future elections, working to preserve
more data, connections, donor goodwill, and institutional knowledge across campaign cycles.
If better funded, the county GOP is uniquely able to serve as a coordinating hub among campaigns
spanning multiple cycles, as well as a base for community outreach and media relations.
Think: Permanent Campaign, Permanent Staff, Permanent Community Presence, Permanent
Outreach Efforts, Permanent Data Operations, Permanent Fundraising Operations.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Chart depicts cumulative fundraising by Fairfax political committees. Data sourced from SBE and FEC reports. (n.b., Dem totals include pass-through coordinated expenditures)

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Chart depicts cumulative fundraising by Fairfax political committees, excluding transfers from state and local candidate committees. Data sourced from SBE and FEC reports.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Fairfax Voters In General

Fairfax County and most of its nine magisterial districts are Democratic-majority geographies in all
elections. In-play centrists tend to be relatively more moderate than elsewhere in Virginia.
In-play centrists prefer fiscally responsible candidates running on issue-focused platforms.
At the local level, in-play centrists penalize candidates perceived as advancing a social agenda or
engaging in partisan politics. This key segment wants its local leaders to work across the aisle on
solving problems and maintaining core government services roads and schools take priority.
Polling and historical returns clearly show a meaningful number of left of center voters will support
Republicans when Republicans articulate mainstream policy platforms to ease congestion, improve
educational quality, and increase county-level operational effectiveness and efficiency.

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Fairfax Voters Electoral Results and Turnout

Fairfax County and most of its 9 magisterial districts are Democratic-majority geographies in all
elections. In-play centrists tend to be relatively more moderate than elsewhere in Virginia.
Election Results
2012 - 2014
Election Turnout
2012 - 2014

2014 - US
Senate
2013
Governor
2013 - Lt.
Governor
2013 - Atty.
General
2012 - US
President
2012 - US
Senate
Fairfax
D + 17.5%
D + 22.3%
D + 28.1%
D + 22.3%
D + 20.5%
D + 22.7%
Dranesville
D + 14.2%
D + 18.9%
D + 24.7%
D + 18.2%
D + 11.6%
D + 15.5%
Sully
D + 6.1%
D + 9.8%
D + 15.2%
D + 10.1%
D + 11.9%
D + 13.6%
Virginia
D + 0.8%
D + 2.5%
D + 10.6%
D + 0.0%
D + 3.9%
D + 5.9%
2014 - US
Senate
2013
Governor
2013 - Lt.
Governor
2013 - Atty.
General
2012 - US
President
2012 - US
Senate
Fairfax
45.7%
46.8%
46.8%
46.8%
80.5%
80.5%
Dranesville
50.7%
51.2%
51.2%
51.2%
81.9%
81.9%
Sully
43.2%
43.6%
43.6%
43.6%
79.5%
79.5%
Virginia
41.6%
43.0%
43.0%
43.0%
71.8%
71.8%
Geography
Geography
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Fairfax Voters Educated and Affluent

Fairfax residents are high-earning and well-educated, with an elevated proportion of professionals
across both public and private sector employers. Median HHI ranks #2 in US, behind only
Loudoun. Despite this, Fairfaxs middle class faces pressure from the countys high cost of living.
Comparative Education Levels

Education Level
Earnings vs. Educational Attainment

Education Level
Fairfax
Virginia
Fairfax
Virginia
Less than 9th grade
4.5%
5.1%
Less than high school graduate
9th to 12th grade, no diploma
3.7%
7.5%
High school graduate (incl. equiv.)
$ 30,628
$ 29,338
High school graduate (incl. equiv.)
13.4%
25.2%
Some college or associates degree
$ 43,278
$ 36,429
Some college, no degree
14.5%
20.1%
Bachelor's degree
$ 55,683
Associate's degree
5.3%
7.0%
Graduate or professional degree
$ 101,972
Bachelor's degree
30.7%
20.5%
28%
14.7%
Graduate or professional degree

23,161
71,159
21,145
79,335
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Fairfax An Ethnically Diverse County

Fairfax is ethnically diverse and home to Virginias largest Asian-American population. The GOP
must aggressively work to include all communities in the political process. Lasting and successful
coalitions are built upon genuine dialogue and representation, not election-cycle photo ops.
Census Racial Group
White
% of
Fairfax
63.5%
Black / African-American
Census Asian
Subgroup
% of
Asians
Asian Indian
22.9%
9.2%
Chinese
14.0%
American Indian / AK Native
0.4%
Filipino
8.4%
Asian
17.9%
Japanese
1.7%
Native Hawaiian
0.1%
Korean
20.1%
Some other Race
4.8%
Vietnamese
15.6%
Two or More Races
4.1%
Other Asian
16.8%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Fairfax An Ethnically Diverse County

Fairfax Countys electorate includes three times as many naturalized citizens as Virginias as a
whole. Republicans must effectively engage these voters by opening lines of communication with
community leaders and understanding the motivations and beliefs of naturalized Americans.
Only English
62.20%
Citizenship Status
Native-Born
Spanish / Creole
12.40%
Foreign Born, Naturalized
15.9%
Other Indo-European
9.20%
Foreign Born, Non-Citizen
15.0%
Asian / Pacific Island
11.70%
Other Languages
4.50%
Language
% of Fairfax
% of Fairfax
69.1%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Fairfax Voters Want Funding for Core Services

Fairfax voters have overwhelmingly supported bond referenda funding core
government services across all subjects, in all districts, and in all years electorates.
Bond Question
Subject Matter
Sully
District
2015 - Education
$310
Yes + 46.3%
Yes + 46.4%
Yes + 41.0%
2015 - Public Safety
$151
Yes + 49.0%
Yes + 45.8%
Yes + 44.1%
2014 - Transportation
$100
Yes + 43.6%
Yes + 43.4%
Yes + 40.1%
2013 - Education
$250
Yes + 47.6%
Yes + 46.8%
Yes + 44.0%
2012 - Parks
$75
Yes + 44.0%
Yes + 40.7%
Yes + 41.1%
2012 - Library
$25
Yes + 40.2%
Yes + 37.5%
Yes + 35.9%
2012 - Public Safety
$55
Yes + 49.2%
Yes + 45.5%
Yes + 46.8%
2012 - Storm Drainage
$30
Yes + 53.4%
Yes + 50.5%
Yes + 47.0%

Amount
Fairfax
Dranesville
(Millions) Countywide
District
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Republican Messaging on County Services

Election results conclusively demonstrate Fairfax voters want more funding for core government
services, even if said funding derives from the proceeds of debt issuance.
Arguing against funding core services is an electoral non-starter.
Nuanced arguments against specific plans for funding core services risk false equivocation to
opposition in the abstract when insufficient detail in news coverage fails to clearly deliver the GOPs
position. Fair? It doesnt matter it will happen, time and time again.
Nuanced arguments give Democrats an opportunity to confuse voters by muddling the issue,
opening the door to false and misleading attacks against the GOP with a propensity to stick.
This happened to Chronis her opposition to $100M in education cuts in a budget which Foust
supported was spun into opposition to education funding in four false, final-month attack mailers.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

Republicans must avoid the pitfalls of reactive messaging by demonstrating leadership on
addressing voters desires for increased funding of core government services.
How can Republicans do this? Stick to core GOP themes and competencies of efficiency,
prioritization, and oversight. In-play voters perceive the GOPs relative strength on fiscal oversight.
The GOP can fix it and make Fairfax County run more efficiently, with more funding for core svcs.
The GOP must lead on crafting proposals to prioritize core services and ensure more dollars flow
to funding of end-user services by reducing waste, inefficiency, and overhead.
The GOP must lead in communicating a clear contrast in priorities e.g., ensuring transportation
funds are allocated to congestion relief over lower-priority parochial projects.
Develop, implement, and communicate metrics show voters where GOP ideas outperform.
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

Polling shows the tax issue is split, leaving few opportunities for pickups.
By contrast, voters see congestion relief & education as top two priorities overwhelmingly.
Fairfax voters want budgets spent more effectively, so how can Republican leaders:
move more commuters per dollar spent? Choose which road projects to be funded?
develop more cost-effective transit while taking into account public preferences?
raise test scores / increase college acceptance more per dollar spent?
reduce bureaucracy and overhead to the benefit of core, front-line services?
meet mainstream regulatory objectives with minimal red tape and delay for job creators?

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Winning requires a healthy committee.
Fix the GOP

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Appendix: Additional Data

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Headline Numbers - Again

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Headline Numbers - Again

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Supervisor vs Supervisor Vote %

Sully Guevara / Smith
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
Dranesville Chronis / Foust
Guevara Delta %
-15.9%
Guevara %
42.0%
Smith %
57.9%
902 - Brookfield
-25.0%
37.3%
62.3%
904 - Stonecroft
11.0%
55.5%
44.5%
905 - Franklin
-10.8%
44.6%
55.4%
909 - Oak Hill
0.7%
50.0%
49.3%
309 - Kenmore
910 - London Towne
-21.0%
39.4%
60.4%
311 - Langley
915 - Virginia Run
29.5%
64.4%
34.9%
316 - Salona #1
319 - Herndon #1
Chronis Delta %
Chronis %
Foust %
301 - Chain Bridge
Precinct
-4.2%
47.9%
52.1%
302 - Chesterbrook
-14.3%
42.8%
57.2%
303 - Churchill
-8.5%
45.8%
54.2%
304 - Cooper
4.8%
52.4%
47.6%
306 - Great Falls
-1.7%
49.1%
50.8%
2.3%
51.1%
48.7%
-3.4%
48.2%
51.7%
-25.2%
37.4%
62.6%
-9.0%
45.4%
54.3%
320 - Herndon #2
-18.1%
40.8%
58.9%
321 - Clearview
-5.1%
47.4%
52.5%
322 - Forestville
26.8%
63.4%
36.6%
323 - Shouse
-6.3%
46.7%
53.0%
918 - Centreville
-13.2%
43.2%
56.4%
919 - Green Trails
-18.8%
40.4%
59.2%
921 - Deer Park
12.5%
56.2%
43.7%
923 - Bull Run
34.4%
67.0%
32.6%
924 - Spindle
-43.3%
27.9%
71.2%
324 - Herdon #3
-17.5%
41.2%
58.6%
925 - Old Mill
-18.7%
40.2%
58.9%
325 - Hutchison
-29.7%
35.2%
64.8%
926 - Powell
-10.3%
44.7%
55.1%
327 - Sugarland
0.0%
50.0%
50.0%
328 - Hickory
15.2%
57.6%
42.4%
927 - Armfield
-23.9%
37.8%
61.8%
931 - Carson
-15.3%
42.2%
57.5%
932 - Stone South
-27.8%
35.9%
63.8%
933 - Compton
-21.2%
39.4%
60.6%
333 - Salona #2
Total
-6.5%
46.6%
53.1%
Total

329 - Seneca
8.6%
54.3%
45.7%
331 - Spring Hill
-2.2%
48.8%
51.0%
-35.0%
32.3%
67.3%
-5.7%
47.1%
52.8%
-3.9%
48.0%
51.9%
332 - Coates
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Supervisor vs Supervisor Vote Share

Sully Guevara / Smith
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
Guevara Delta % Guevara Share

-15.3%
40.5%
Smtih Share
55.8%
902 - Brookfield
-24.5%
36.7%
61.2%
904 - Stonecroft
10.7%
53.8%
43.1%
905 - Franklin
-10.6%
43.5%
54.1%
909 - Oak Hill
0.6%
48.3%
47.6%
910 - London Towne
-20.1%
37.7%
57.9%
915 - Virginia Run
29.0%
63.4%
Dranesville Chronis / Foust

Chronis Delta %
Chronis Share
Foust Share
301 - Chain Bridge
Precinct
-4.1%
47.1%
51.3%
302 - Chesterbrook
-14.2%
42.5%
56.7%
303 - Churchill
-8.3%
44.9%
53.2%
304 - Cooper
4.7%
51.5%
46.8%
306 - Great Falls
-1.7%
47.8%
49.5%
309 - Kenmore
2.3%
50.2%
47.9%
311 - Langley
-3.4%
47.1%
50.4%
34.3%
316 - Salona #1
-24.7%
36.7%
61.4%
319 - Herndon #1
-8.7%
44.1%
52.8%
320 - Herndon #2
-17.3%
39.0%
56.3%
321 - Clearview
-5.0%
46.1%
51.1%
322 - Forestville
26.3%
62.2%
35.9%
323 - Shouse
-6.2%
46.2%
52.4%
918 - Centreville
-12.8%
42.1%
54.9%
919 - Green Trails
-17.9%
38.7%
56.6%
921 - Deer Park
12.3%
55.3%
43.0%
923 - Bull Run
33.3%
64.8%
31.6%
924 - Spindle
-41.5%
26.7%
68.2%
324 - Herdon #3
-16.9%
39.8%
56.6%
925 - Old Mill
-17.9%
38.7%
56.6%
325 - Hutchison
-28.9%
34.3%
63.2%
926 - Powell
-9.9%
42.7%
52.5%
327 - Sugarland
0.0%
48.8%
48.8%
328 - Hickory
14.9%
56.3%
41.4%
927 - Armfield
-23.1%
36.6%
59.7%
931 - Carson
-14.8%
40.8%
55.6%
932 - Stone South
-27.3%
35.2%
62.5%
933 - Compton
-20.1%
37.4%
57.5%
Total
-6.3%
45.1%
51.4%

329 - Seneca
8.5%
53.4%
44.9%
331 - Spring Hill
-2.2%
48.4%
50.6%
332 - Coates
-33.3%
30.7%
63.9%
333 - Salona #2
-5.6%
46.4%
52.0%
Total
-3.8%
46.9%
50.7%
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Supervisor Vote % vs Top Vote %

John Guevara GOP
Precinct
Kathy Smith Democrat
Delta %
Top GOP
Top GOP %
Guevara %
901 - Centre Ridge
-9.9%
Hugo
51.9%
42.0%
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
902 - Brookfield
-3.6%
Hollingshead
40.9%
37.3%
904 - Stonecroft
-3.0%
Bergman
58.5%
905 - Franklin
0.0%
Guevara
909 - Oak Hill
0.0%
910 - London Towne
Delta %
0.0%
Top Dem
Smith
Top Dem %
57.9%
Smith %
57.9%
902 - Brookfield
0.0%
Smith
62.3%
62.3%
55.5%
904 - Stonecroft
0.0%
Smith
44.5%
44.5%
44.6%
44.6%
905 - Franklin
-1.9%
Wexton
57.3%
55.4%
Guevara
50.0%
50.0%
909 - Oak Hill
0.0%
Smith
49.3%
49.3%
-0.9%
Yi
40.3%
39.4%
910 - London Towne
-0.9%
Marsden
61.3%
60.4%
915 - Virginia Run
-8.5%
Hugo
73.0%
64.4%
915 - Virginia Run
0.0%
Smith
34.9%
34.9%
918 - Centreville
-10.3%
Hugo
53.5%
43.2%
918 - Centreville
0.0%
Smith
56.4%
56.4%
919 - Green Trails
-11.6%
Hugo
52.1%
40.4%
919 - Green Trails
0.0%
Smith
59.2%
59.2%
921 - Deer Park
-5.3%
Hugo
61.6%
56.2%
921 - Deer Park
0.0%
Smith
43.7%
43.7%
923 - Bull Run
-7.8%
Hugo
74.8%
67.0%
923 - Bull Run
-1.3%
Marsden
33.9%
32.6%
924 - Spindle
-7.5%
Hugo
35.4%
27.9%
924 - Spindle
0.0%
Smith
71.2%
71.2%
925 - Old Mill
-14.3%
Hugo
54.6%
40.2%
925 - Old Mill
0.0%
Smith
58.9%
58.9%
926 - Powell
-11.1%
Yi
55.8%
44.7%
926 - Powell
0.0%
Smith
55.1%
55.1%
927 - Armfield
-8.3%
Vargas
46.1%
37.8%
927 - Armfield
0.0%
Smith
61.8%
61.8%
931 - Carson
-1.1%
Vargas
43.3%
42.2%
931 - Carson
0.0%
Smith
57.5%
57.5%
932 - Stone South
-6.6%
Yi
42.6%
35.9%
932 - Stone South
0.0%
Smith
63.8%
63.8%
933 - Compton
-15.9%
Hugo
55.3%
39.4%
933 - Compton
0.0%
Smith
60.6%
60.6%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville Supervisor Vote % vs Top Vote %

Jennifer Chronis GOP
Precinct
John Foust Democrat
Delta %
Top GOP
Top GOP %
Chronis %
301 - Chain Bridge
0.0%
Chronis
47.9%
47.9%
Precinct
301 - Chain Bridge
302 - Chesterbrook
0.0%
Chronis
42.8%
42.8%
Delta %
-1.6%
Tom Dem
Favola
Top Dem %
53.7%
Foust %
52.1%
302 - Chesterbrook
-1.3%
Favola
58.5%
57.2%
-4.1%
Favola
58.3%
54.2%
303 - Churchill
0.0%
Chronis
45.8%
45.8%
303 - Churchill
304 - Cooper
0.0%
Chronis
52.4%
52.4%
304 - Cooper
-2.3%
Favola
49.9%
47.6%
306 - Great Falls
-4.8%
Parisot
53.9%
49.1%
306 - Great Falls
0.0%
Foust
50.8%
50.8%
309 - Kenmore
0.0%
Chronis
51.1%
51.1%
309 - Kenmore
-1.8%
Favola
50.6%
48.7%
0.0%
Foust
51.7%
51.7%
311 - Langley
-0.6%
Parisot
48.8%
48.2%
311 - Langley
316 - Salona #1
-5.8%
Forakis
43.2%
37.4%
316 - Salona #1
0.0%
Foust
62.6%
62.6%
319 - Herndon #1
0.0%
Chronis
45.4%
45.4%
319 - Herndon #1
-2.3%
Wexton
56.7%
54.3%
320 - Herndon #2
0.0%
Chronis
40.8%
40.8%
320 - Herndon #2
-6.4%
Wexton
65.3%
58.9%
321 - Clearview
0.0%
Chronis
47.4%
47.4%
321 - Clearview
-3.0%
Favola
55.5%
52.5%
322 - Forestville
0.0%
Chronis
63.4%
63.4%
322 - Forestville
-2.3%
Favola
38.9%
36.6%
323 - Shouse
0.0%
Chronis
46.7%
46.7%
323 - Shouse
-2.4%
Murphy
55.4%
53.0%
324 - Herdon #3
0.0%
Chronis
41.2%
41.2%
324 - Herdon #3
-3.8%
Wexton
62.4%
58.6%
325 - Hutchison
0.0%
Chronis
35.2%
35.2%
325 - Hutchison
-8.0%
Wexton
72.8%
64.8%
327 - Sugarland
0.0%
Chronis
50.0%
50.0%
327 - Sugarland
-3.5%
Favola
53.5%
50.0%
328 - Hickory
0.0%
Chronis
57.6%
57.6%
328 - Hickory
-3.7%
Favola
46.1%
42.4%
-0.8%
Favola
46.5%
45.7%
329 - Seneca
0.0%
Chronis
54.3%
54.3%
329 - Seneca
331 - Spring Hill
-1.6%
Parisot
50.4%
48.8%
331 - Spring Hill
-0.5%
Favola
51.5%
51.0%
332 - Coates
0.0%
Chronis
32.3%
32.3%
332 - Coates
-7.6%
Wexton
74.9%
67.3%
333 - Salona #2
0.0%
Chronis
47.1%
47.1%
333 - Salona #2
-3.3%
Favola
56.1%
52.8%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Supervisor Vote Share vs Top Vote Share

John Guevara GOP

Delta %
0.0%
Top Dem
Smith
Top Dem Share

55.8%
Smith Share
55.8%
902 - Brookfield
0.0%
Smith
61.2%
61.2%
53.8%
904 - Stonecroft
0.0%
Smith
43.1%
43.1%
43.5%
43.5%
905 - Franklin
-1.8%
Wexton
55.9%
54.1%
Vargas
48.5%
48.3%
909 - Oak Hill
-0.8%
Boysko
48.4%
47.6%
-2.1%
Yi
39.8%
37.7%
910 - London Towne
-2.8%
Marsden
60.7%
57.9%
915 - Virginia Run
-9.4%
Hugo
72.7%
63.4%
915 - Virginia Run
0.0%
Smith
34.3%
34.3%
918 - Centreville
-11.0%
Hugo
53.0%
42.1%
918 - Centreville
0.0%
Smith
54.9%
54.9%
919 - Green Trails
-13.1%
Hugo
51.8%
38.7%
919 - Green Trails
0.0%
Smith
56.6%
56.6%
921 - Deer Park
-6.2%
Hugo
61.5%
55.3%
921 - Deer Park
0.0%
Smith
43.0%
43.0%
923 - Bull Run
-9.8%
Hugo
74.6%
64.8%
923 - Bull Run
-2.1%
Marsden
33.7%
31.6%
924 - Spindle
-7.7%
Hugo
34.4%
26.7%
924 - Spindle
0.0%
Smith
68.2%
68.2%
925 - Old Mill
-15.6%
Hugo
54.2%
38.7%
925 - Old Mill
0.0%
Smith
56.6%
56.6%
926 - Powell
-12.9%
Yi
55.5%
42.7%
926 - Powell
0.0%
Smith
52.5%
52.5%
927 - Armfield
-8.7%
Vargas
45.3%
36.6%
927 - Armfield
0.0%
Smith
59.7%
59.7%
931 - Carson
-2.3%
Vargas
43.1%
40.8%
931 - Carson
-0.7%
Wexton
56.3%
55.6%
932 - Stone South
-6.7%
Yi
41.9%
35.2%
932 - Stone South
0.0%
Smith
62.5%
62.5%
933 - Compton
-17.9%
Hugo
55.3%
37.4%
933 - Compton
0.0%
Smith
57.5%
57.5%
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
Delta %
-11.0%
Top GOP
Hugo
Top GOP Share

51.4%
Guevara Share
40.5%
902 - Brookfield
-4.1%
Hollingshead
40.7%
36.7%
904 - Stonecroft
-4.3%
Bergman
58.1%
905 - Franklin
0.0%
Guevara
909 - Oak Hill
-0.3%
910 - London Towne

Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville Supervisor Vote Share vs Top Vote Share

Precinct
301 - Chain Bridge
Delta %
0.0%
Top GOP
Chronis
302 - Chesterbrook
0.0%
Chronis
303 - Churchill
0.0%
Chronis
304 - Cooper
0.0%
Chronis
306 - Great Falls
-5.9%
Parisot
309 - Kenmore
0.0%
311 - Langley
-1.2%
316 - Salona #1
319 - Herndon #1
Top GOP Share

47.1%
John Foust Democrat
Chronis Share
47.1%
Precinct
301 - Chain Bridge
Delta %
-1.7%
Top Dem
Murphy
Top Dem Share

53.0%
Foust Share
51.3%
42.5%
42.5%
302 - Chesterbrook
-1.1%
Favola
57.7%
56.7%
44.9%
44.9%
303 - Churchill
-3.8%
Favola
57.1%
53.2%
51.5%
51.5%
304 - Cooper
-2.7%
Murphy
49.5%
46.8%
53.8%
47.8%
306 - Great Falls
0.0%
Foust
49.5%
49.5%
Chronis
50.2%
50.2%
309 - Kenmore
-2.0%
Favola
49.8%
47.9%
Parisot
48.3%
47.1%
311 - Langley
-0.2%
Murphy
50.7%
50.4%
-5.9%
Forakis
42.6%
36.7%
316 - Salona #1
0.0%
Foust
61.4%
61.4%
-0.8%
Vargas
44.9%
44.1%
319 - Herndon #1
-3.4%
Wexton
56.2%
52.8%
320 - Herndon #2
0.0%
Chronis
39.0%
39.0%
320 - Herndon #2
-7.9%
Wexton
64.1%
56.3%
321 - Clearview
0.0%
Chronis
46.1%
46.1%
321 - Clearview
-3.6%
Favola
54.7%
51.1%
322 - Forestville
-0.6%
Parisot
62.8%
62.2%
322 - Forestville
-2.6%
Favola
38.4%
35.9%
323 - Shouse
0.0%
Chronis
46.2%
46.2%
323 - Shouse
-2.6%
Murphy
55.0%
52.4%
324 - Herdon #3
0.0%
Chronis
39.8%
39.8%
324 - Herdon #3
-5.0%
Wexton
61.6%
56.6%
325 - Hutchison
0.0%
Chronis
34.3%
34.3%
325 - Hutchison
-8.7%
Wexton
71.9%
63.2%
327 - Sugarland
0.0%
Chronis
48.8%
48.8%
327 - Sugarland
-4.2%
Favola
53.0%
48.8%
328 - Hickory
0.0%
Chronis
56.3%
56.3%
328 - Hickory
-3.6%
Favola
45.1%
41.4%
329 - Seneca
-0.3%
Parisot
53.6%
53.4%
329 - Seneca
-1.2%
Favola
46.1%
44.9%
331 - Spring Hill
-1.6%
Parisot
50.1%
48.4%
331 - Spring Hill
0.0%
Foust
50.6%
50.6%
332 - Coates
0.0%
Chronis
30.7%
30.7%
332 - Coates
-10.3%
Wexton
74.2%
63.9%
333 - Salona #2
0.0%
Chronis
46.4%
46.4%
333 - Salona #2
-4.0%
Favola
56.0%
52.0%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Supervisor Vote % vs Top Other Vote %

John Guevara GOP
Precinct
Delta %
Top Other GOP
Top Other %
Guevara %
901 - Centre Ridge
-9.9%
Hugo
51.9%
42.0%
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
902 - Brookfield
-3.6%
Hollingshead
40.9%
37.3%
904 - Stonecroft
-3.0%
Bergman
58.5%
905 - Franklin
1.9%
Hollingshead
909 - Oak Hill
1.0%
910 - London Towne
Delta %
4.4%
Top Other Dem

Marsden
Top Other %
53.5%
Smith %
57.9%
902 - Brookfield
3.3%
Wexton
59.0%
62.3%
55.5%
904 - Stonecroft
3.0%
Marsden
41.5%
44.5%
42.7%
44.6%
905 - Franklin
-1.9%
Wexton
57.3%
55.4%
Vargas
49.0%
50.0%
909 - Oak Hill
0.5%
Boysko
48.8%
49.3%
-0.9%
Yi
40.3%
39.4%
910 - London Towne
-0.9%
Marsden
61.3%
60.4%
915 - Virginia Run
-8.5%
Hugo
73.0%
64.4%
915 - Virginia Run
2.8%
Marsden
32.2%
34.9%
918 - Centreville
-10.3%
Hugo
53.5%
43.2%
918 - Centreville
2.9%
Marsden
53.5%
56.4%
919 - Green Trails
-11.6%
Hugo
52.1%
40.4%
919 - Green Trails
4.4%
Marsden
54.8%
59.2%
921 - Deer Park
-5.3%
Hugo
61.6%
56.2%
921 - Deer Park
5.2%
Foltz
38.4%
43.7%
923 - Bull Run
-7.8%
Hugo
74.8%
67.0%
923 - Bull Run
-1.3%
Marsden
33.9%
32.6%
924 - Spindle
-7.5%
Hugo
35.4%
27.9%
924 - Spindle
3.4%
Marsden
67.8%
71.2%
925 - Old Mill
-14.3%
Hugo
54.6%
40.2%
925 - Old Mill
7.1%
Marsden
51.7%
58.9%
926 - Powell
-11.1%
Yi
55.8%
44.7%
926 - Powell
2.6%
Marsden
52.4%
55.1%
927 - Armfield
-8.3%
Vargas
46.1%
37.8%
927 - Armfield
10.6%
Boysko
51.2%
61.8%
931 - Carson
-1.1%
Vargas
43.3%
42.2%
931 - Carson
0.7%
Wexton
56.8%
57.5%
932 - Stone South
-6.6%
Yi
42.6%
35.9%
932 - Stone South
6.3%
Bulova
57.4%
63.8%
933 - Compton
-15.9%
Hugo
55.3%
39.4%
933 - Compton
10.9%
Barker
49.7%
60.6%
Total
-6.6%
Combined
53.2%
46.6%
Total
3.1%
Combined
50.0%
53.1%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville Supervisor Vote % vs Top Other Vote %

Precinct
John Foust Democrat
Delta %
Top Other GOP
Top Other %
Chronis %
Delta %
Tom Other Dem
Top Other %
301 - Chain Bridge
1.4%
Parisot
46.5%
47.9%
301 - Chain Bridge
-1.6%
Favola
53.7%
52.1%
302 - Chesterbrook
1.3%
Forakis
41.5%
42.8%
302 - Chesterbrook
-1.3%
Favola
58.5%
57.2%
303 - Churchill
3.1%
Parisot
42.7%
45.8%
303 - Churchill
-4.1%
Favola
58.3%
54.2%
304 - Cooper
2.0%
Parisot
50.4%
52.4%
304 - Cooper
-2.3%
Favola
49.9%
47.6%
Favola
50.8%
50.8%
Precinct
Foust %
306 - Great Falls
-4.8%
Parisot
53.9%
49.1%
306 - Great Falls
0.0%
309 - Kenmore
0.8%
Parisot
50.3%
51.1%
309 - Kenmore
-1.8%
Favola
50.6%
48.7%
311 - Langley
-0.6%
Parisot
48.8%
48.2%
311 - Langley
0.0%
Murphy
51.7%
51.7%
316 - Salona #1
-5.8%
Forakis
43.2%
37.4%
316 - Salona #1
0.0%
Murphy
62.6%
62.6%
319 - Herndon #1
0.4%
Vargas
45.0%
45.4%
319 - Herndon #1
-2.3%
Wexton
56.7%
54.3%
320 - Herndon #2
6.6%
Vargas
34.3%
40.8%
320 - Herndon #2
-6.4%
Wexton
65.3%
58.9%
321 - Clearview
2.9%
Forakis
44.4%
47.4%
321 - Clearview
-3.0%
Favola
55.5%
52.5%
322 - Forestville
0.3%
Parisot
63.1%
63.4%
322 - Forestville
-2.3%
Favola
38.9%
36.6%
323 - Shouse
2.0%
Forakis
44.7%
46.7%
323 - Shouse
-2.4%
Murphy
55.4%
53.0%
324 - Herdon #3
3.8%
Hollingshead
37.3%
41.2%
324 - Herdon #3
-3.8%
Wexton
62.4%
58.6%
325 - Hutchison
7.5%
Vargas
27.7%
35.2%
325 - Hutchison
-8.0%
Wexton
72.8%
64.8%
327 - Sugarland
3.6%
Forakis
46.4%
50.0%
327 - Sugarland
-3.5%
Favola
53.5%
50.0%
328 - Hickory
2.7%
Parisot
54.9%
57.6%
328 - Hickory
-3.7%
Favola
46.1%
42.4%
329 - Seneca
0.4%
Parisot
53.9%
54.3%
329 - Seneca
-0.8%
Favola
46.5%
45.7%
331 - Spring Hill
-1.6%
Parisot
50.4%
48.8%
331 - Spring Hill
-0.5%
Favola
51.5%
51.0%
332 - Coates
6.0%
Vargas
26.3%
32.3%
332 - Coates
-7.6%
Wexton
74.9%
67.3%
333 - Salona #2
3.3%
Forakis
43.8%
47.1%
333 - Salona #2
-3.3%
Favola
56.1%
52.8%
Total
1.8%
Combined
46.2%
48.0%
Total
-2.5%
Combined
54.4%
51.9%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Supervisor Vote Share vs Top Other Vote Share

John Guevara GOP
Precinct
Delta %
Top Other GOP Top Other Share Guevara Share
901 - Centre Ridge
-11.0%
Hugo
51.4%
40.5%
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
902 - Brookfield
-4.1%
Hollingshead
40.7%
36.7%
902 - Brookfield
2.5%
Wexton
58.7%
61.2%
904 - Stonecroft
-4.3%
Bergman
58.1%
53.8%
904 - Stonecroft
1.9%
Marsden
41.2%
43.1%
905 - Franklin
1.8%
Hollingshead
41.7%
43.5%
905 - Franklin
-1.8%
Wexton
55.9%
54.1%
909 - Oak Hill
-0.3%
Vargas
48.5%
48.3%
909 - Oak Hill
-0.8%
Boysko
48.4%
47.6%
910 - London Towne
-2.1%
Yi
39.8%
37.7%
910 - London Towne
-2.8%
Marsden
60.7%
57.9%
915 - Virginia Run
-9.4%
Hugo
72.7%
63.4%
915 - Virginia Run
2.3%
Marsden
32.0%
34.3%
918 - Centreville
-11.0%
Hugo
53.0%
42.1%
918 - Centreville
1.8%
Marsden
53.1%
54.9%
919 - Green Trails
-13.1%
Hugo
51.8%
38.7%
919 - Green Trails
2.5%
Marsden
54.2%
56.6%
921 - Deer Park
-6.2%
Hugo
61.5%
55.3%
921 - Deer Park
4.5%
Foltz
38.4%
43.0%
923 - Bull Run
-9.8%
Hugo
74.6%
64.8%
923 - Bull Run
-2.1%
Marsden
33.7%
31.6%
924 - Spindle
-7.7%
Hugo
34.4%
26.7%
924 - Spindle
2.3%
Marsden
65.9%
68.2%
925 - Old Mill
-15.6%
Hugo
54.2%
38.7%
925 - Old Mill
5.2%
Marsden
51.4%
56.6%
926 - Powell
-12.9%
Yi
55.5%
42.7%
926 - Powell
1.0%
Marsden
51.6%
52.5%
927 - Armfield
-8.7%
Vargas
45.3%
36.6%
927 - Armfield
9.5%
Boysko
50.2%
59.7%
931 - Carson
-2.3%
Vargas
43.1%
40.8%
931 - Carson
-0.7%
Wexton
56.3%
55.6%
932 - Stone South
-6.7%
Yi
41.9%
35.2%
932 - Stone South
5.9%
Bulova
56.6%
62.5%
933 - Compton
-17.9%
Hugo
55.3%
37.4%
933 - Compton
7.8%
Barker
49.7%
57.5%
Total
-7.7%
Combined
52.8%
45.1%
Total
1.9%
Combined
49.5%
51.4%

Delta %
2.4%
Top Other Dem Top Other Share

Marsden
53.5%
Smith Share
55.8%
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville Supervisor Vote Share vs Top Other Vote Share

Precinct
John Foust Democrat
Delta %
Top Other GOP
Top Other Share
Chronis Share
Delta %
Tom Other Dem
Top Other Share
301 - Chain Bridge
0.9%
Parisot
46.2%
47.1%
301 - Chain Bridge
-1.7%
Murphy
53.0%
51.3%
302 - Chesterbrook
1.4%
Forakis
41.0%
42.5%
302 - Chesterbrook
-1.1%
Favola
57.7%
56.7%
303 - Churchill
2.8%
Parisot
42.1%
44.9%
303 - Churchill
-3.8%
Favola
57.1%
53.2%
304 - Cooper
1.3%
Parisot
50.2%
51.5%
304 - Cooper
-2.7%
Murphy
49.5%
46.8%
306 - Great Falls
-5.9%
Parisot
53.8%
47.8%
306 - Great Falls
1.5%
Favola
48.1%
49.5%
309 - Kenmore
0.5%
Parisot
49.7%
50.2%
309 - Kenmore
-2.0%
Favola
49.8%
47.9%
311 - Langley
-1.2%
Parisot
48.3%
47.1%
311 - Langley
-0.2%
Murphy
50.7%
50.4%
316 - Salona #1
-5.9%
Forakis
42.6%
36.7%
316 - Salona #1
319 - Herndon #1
-0.8%
Vargas
44.9%
44.1%
319 - Herndon #1
320 - Herndon #2
5.0%
Vargas
33.9%
39.0%
321 - Clearview
2.3%
Forakis
43.8%
46.1%
Precinct
Foust Share
5.1%
Murphy
56.4%
61.4%
-3.4%
Wexton
56.2%
52.8%
320 - Herndon #2
-7.9%
Wexton
64.1%
56.3%
321 - Clearview
-3.6%
Favola
54.7%
51.1%
35.9%
322 - Forestville
-0.6%
Parisot
62.8%
62.2%
322 - Forestville
-2.6%
Favola
38.4%
323 - Shouse
2.0%
Forakis
44.2%
46.2%
323 - Shouse
-2.6%
Murphy
55.0%
52.4%
324 - Herdon #3
2.9%
Hollingshead
36.8%
39.8%
324 - Herdon #3
-5.0%
Wexton
61.6%
56.6%
325 - Hutchison
6.8%
Vargas
27.5%
34.3%
325 - Hutchison
-8.7%
Wexton
71.9%
63.2%
327 - Sugarland
2.9%
Forakis
45.9%
48.8%
327 - Sugarland
-4.2%
Favola
53.0%
48.8%
328 - Hickory
1.6%
Parisot
54.7%
56.3%
328 - Hickory
-3.6%
Favola
45.1%
41.4%
329 - Seneca
-0.3%
Parisot
53.6%
53.4%
329 - Seneca
-1.2%
Favola
46.1%
44.9%
331 - Spring Hill
-1.6%
Parisot
50.1%
48.4%
331 - Spring Hill
0.3%
Favola
50.3%
50.6%
332 - Coates
4.5%
Vargas
26.2%
30.7%
332 - Coates
-10.3%
Wexton
74.2%
63.9%
333 - Salona #2
2.7%
Forakis
43.7%
46.4%
333 - Salona #2
-4.0%
Favola
56.0%
52.0%
Total
1.1%
Combined
45.9%
46.9%
Total
-3.0%
Combined
53.7%
50.7%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Supervisor Vote % vs House Vote %

John Guevara GOP

Delta %
9.9%
Dem House
Foltz
House %
48.0%
Smith %
57.9%
909 - Oak Hill
0.5%
Boysko
48.8%
49.3%
39.4%
910 - London Towne
0.7%
Bulova
59.7%
60.4%
73.0%
64.4%
915 - Virginia Run
7.9%
Foltz
27.0%
34.9%
Hugo
53.5%
43.2%
918 - Centreville
10.2%
Foltz
46.2%
56.4%
-11.6%
Hugo
52.1%
40.4%
919 - Green Trails
11.4%
Foltz
47.8%
59.2%
921 - Deer Park
-5.3%
Hugo
61.6%
56.2%
921 - Deer Park
5.2%
Foltz
38.4%
43.7%
923 - Bull Run
-7.8%
Hugo
74.8%
67.0%
923 - Bull Run
7.4%
Foltz
25.2%
32.6%
924 - Spindle
-7.5%
Hugo
35.4%
27.9%
924 - Spindle
7.5%
Foltz
63.7%
71.2%
925 - Old Mill
-14.3%
Hugo
54.6%
40.2%
925 - Old Mill
13.4%
Foltz
45.4%
58.9%
926 - Powell
-11.1%
Yi
55.8%
44.7%
926 - Powell
10.8%
Bulova
44.2%
55.1%
927 - Armfield
-8.3%
Vargas
46.1%
37.8%
927 - Armfield
10.6%
Boysko
51.2%
61.8%
931 - Carson
-1.1%
Vargas
43.3%
42.2%
931 - Carson
3.9%
Boysko
53.6%
57.5%
932 - Stone South
-6.6%
Yi
42.6%
35.9%
932 - Stone South
6.3%
Bulova
57.4%
63.8%
933 - Compton
-15.9%
Hugo
55.3%
39.4%
933 - Compton
15.9%
Foltz
44.7%
60.6%
Total
-7.3%
Combined
54.5%
47.1%
Total
7.5%
Combined
45.0%
52.5%
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
Delta %
-9.9%
GOP House
Hugo
House %
51.9%
Guevara %
42.0%
1.0%
Vargas
49.0%
50.0%
910 - London Towne
-0.9%
Yi
40.3%
915 - Virginia Run
-8.5%
Hugo
918 - Centreville
-10.3%
919 - Green Trails
909 - Oak Hill

Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville Supervisor Vote % vs House Vote %

John Foust Democrat

Delta %
-1.2%
Dem House
Murphy
House %
53.3%
Foust %
52.1%
303 - Churchill
-3.1%
Murphy
57.3%
54.2%
52.4%
304 - Cooper
-2.0%
Murphy
49.6%
47.6%
53.9%
49.1%
306 - Great Falls
4.7%
Murphy
46.1%
50.8%
Parisot
50.3%
51.1%
309 - Kenmore
-1.0%
Murphy
49.7%
48.7%
-0.6%
Parisot
48.8%
48.2%
311 - Langley
0.5%
Murphy
51.2%
51.7%
316 - Salona #1
-5.2%
Parisot
42.6%
37.4%
316 - Salona #1
5.5%
Murphy
57.1%
62.6%
319 - Herndon #1
0.4%
Vargas
45.0%
45.4%
319 - Herndon #1
3.5%
Boysko
50.8%
54.3%
320 - Herndon #2
6.6%
Vargas
34.3%
40.8%
320 - Herndon #2
-2.0%
Boysko
60.9%
58.9%
Precinct
301 - Chain Bridge
Delta %
1.4%
GOP House
Parisot
House %
46.5%
Chronis %
47.9%
303 - Churchill
3.1%
Parisot
42.7%
45.8%
304 - Cooper
2.0%
Parisot
50.4%
306 - Great Falls
-4.8%
Parisot
309 - Kenmore
0.8%
311 - Langley
Precinct
301 - Chain Bridge
321 - Clearview
3.7%
Vargas
43.7%
47.4%
321 - Clearview
-0.2%
Boysko
52.7%
52.5%
322 - Forestville
0.3%
Parisot
63.1%
63.4%
322 - Forestville
-0.2%
Murphy
36.8%
36.6%
323 - Shouse
2.3%
Parisot
44.5%
46.7%
323 - Shouse
-2.4%
Murphy
55.4%
53.0%
324 - Herdon #3
4.6%
Vargas
36.6%
41.2%
324 - Herdon #3
-0.6%
Boysko
59.2%
58.6%
325 - Hutchison
7.5%
Vargas
27.7%
35.2%
325 - Hutchison
-3.4%
Boysko
68.2%
64.8%
327 - Sugarland
4.8%
Vargas
45.2%
50.0%
327 - Sugarland
-1.0%
Boysko
51.0%
50.0%
328 - Hickory
2.7%
Parisot
54.9%
57.6%
328 - Hickory
-2.7%
Murphy
45.1%
42.4%
329 - Seneca
0.4%
Parisot
53.9%
54.3%
329 - Seneca
-0.4%
Murphy
46.1%
45.7%
331 - Spring Hill
-1.6%
Parisot
50.4%
48.8%
331 - Spring Hill
1.4%
Murphy
49.6%
51.0%
332 - Coates
6.0%
Vargas
26.3%
32.3%
332 - Coates
-3.0%
Boysko
70.3%
67.3%
Total
2.0%
Combined
46.4%
48.4%
Total
-0.4%
Combined
52.0%
51.5%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Supervisor Vote Share vs House Vote Share

John Guevara GOP
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
Delta % GOP House House Share Guevara Share

-11.0%
Hugo
51.4%
40.5%
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
Delta %
8.3%
Dem House House Share Smith Share

Foltz
47.6%
55.8%
909 - Oak Hill
-0.3%
Vargas
48.5%
48.3%
909 - Oak Hill
-0.8%
Boysko
48.4%
47.6%
910 - London Towne
-2.1%
Yi
39.8%
37.7%
910 - London Towne
-1.1%
Bulova
59.0%
57.9%
915 - Virginia Run
-9.4%
Hugo
72.7%
63.4%
915 - Virginia Run
7.4%
Foltz
27.0%
34.3%
918 - Centreville
-11.0%
Hugo
53.0%
42.1%
918 - Centreville
9.1%
Foltz
45.8%
54.9%
919 - Green Trails
-13.1%
Hugo
51.8%
38.7%
919 - Green Trails
9.0%
Foltz
47.6%
56.6%
921 - Deer Park
-6.2%
Hugo
61.5%
55.3%
921 - Deer Park
4.5%
Foltz
38.4%
43.0%
923 - Bull Run
-9.8%
Hugo
74.6%
64.8%
923 - Bull Run
6.4%
Foltz
25.1%
31.6%
924 - Spindle
-7.7%
Hugo
34.4%
26.7%
924 - Spindle
6.3%
Foltz
61.9%
68.2%
925 - Old Mill
-15.6%
Hugo
54.2%
38.7%
925 - Old Mill
11.4%
Foltz
45.1%
56.6%
926 - Powell
-12.9%
Yi
55.5%
42.7%
926 - Powell
8.5%
Bulova
44.0%
52.5%
927 - Armfield
-8.7%
Vargas
45.3%
36.6%
927 - Armfield
9.5%
Boysko
50.2%
59.7%
931 - Carson
-2.3%
Vargas
43.1%
40.8%
931 - Carson
2.3%
Boysko
53.3%
55.6%
932 - Stone South
-6.7%
Yi
41.9%
35.2%
932 - Stone South
5.9%
Bulova
56.6%
62.5%
933 - Compton
-17.9%
Hugo
55.3%
37.4%
933 - Compton
12.8%
Foltz
44.7%
57.5%
Total
-8.5%
Combined
54.0%
45.6%
Total
6.1%
Combined
44.6%
50.8%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville Supervisor Vote Share vs House Vote Share

John Foust Democrat

Delta %
-1.7%
Dem House
Murphy
House Share
53.0%
Foust Share
51.3%
303 - Churchill
-3.3%
Murphy
56.6%
53.2%
51.5%
304 - Cooper
-2.7%
Murphy
49.5%
46.8%
53.8%
47.8%
306 - Great Falls
3.5%
Murphy
46.0%
49.5%
Parisot
49.7%
50.2%
309 - Kenmore
-1.2%
Murphy
49.1%
47.9%
-1.2%
Parisot
48.3%
47.1%
311 - Langley
-0.2%
Murphy
50.7%
50.4%
316 - Salona #1
-5.3%
Parisot
42.0%
36.7%
316 - Salona #1
5.1%
Murphy
56.4%
61.4%
319 - Herndon #1
-0.8%
Vargas
44.9%
44.1%
319 - Herndon #1
2.1%
Boysko
50.7%
52.8%
-4.1%
Boysko
60.3%
56.3%
Precinct
301 - Chain Bridge
Delta %
0.9%
GOP House
Parisot
House Share
46.2%
Chronis Share
47.1%
303 - Churchill
2.8%
Parisot
42.1%
44.9%
304 - Cooper
1.3%
Parisot
50.2%
306 - Great Falls
-5.9%
Parisot
309 - Kenmore
0.5%
311 - Langley
Precinct
301 - Chain Bridge
320 - Herndon #2
5.0%
Vargas
33.9%
39.0%
320 - Herndon #2
321 - Clearview
2.7%
Vargas
43.4%
46.1%
321 - Clearview
-1.3%
Boysko
52.4%
51.1%
322 - Forestville
-0.6%
Parisot
62.8%
62.2%
322 - Forestville
-0.7%
Murphy
36.6%
35.9%
323 - Shouse
2.0%
Parisot
44.2%
46.2%
323 - Shouse
-2.6%
Murphy
55.0%
52.4%
324 - Herdon #3
3.3%
Vargas
36.4%
39.8%
324 - Herdon #3
-2.4%
Boysko
59.0%
56.6%
325 - Hutchison
6.8%
Vargas
27.5%
34.3%
325 - Hutchison
-4.5%
Boysko
67.8%
63.2%
327 - Sugarland
3.8%
Vargas
45.0%
48.8%
327 - Sugarland
-1.9%
Boysko
50.7%
48.8%
328 - Hickory
1.6%
Parisot
54.7%
56.3%
328 - Hickory
-3.4%
Murphy
44.9%
41.4%
329 - Seneca
-0.3%
Parisot
53.6%
53.4%
329 - Seneca
-1.0%
Murphy
45.8%
44.9%
331 - Spring Hill
-1.6%
Parisot
50.1%
48.4%
331 - Spring Hill
1.4%
Murphy
49.3%
50.6%
332 - Coates
4.5%
Vargas
26.2%
30.7%
332 - Coates
-6.0%
Boysko
70.0%
63.9%
47.2%
Total
-1.3%
Combined
51.6%
50.3%
Total

1.1%
Combined
46.1%
/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Supervisor Vote % vs Senate Vote %

John Guevara GOP
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
Delta %
-4.4%
GOP Senate Senate % Guevara %

Bergman
46.4%
42.0%
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
Delta %
4.4%
Dem Senate Senate % Smith %

Marsden
53.5%
57.9%
902 - Brookfield
-3.6%
Hollingshead
40.9%
37.3%
902 - Brookfield
3.3%
Wexton
59.0%
62.3%
904 - Stonecroft
-3.0%
Bergman
58.5%
55.5%
904 - Stonecroft
3.0%
Marsden
41.5%
44.5%
905 - Franklin
1.9%
Hollingshead
42.7%
44.6%
905 - Franklin
-1.9%
Wexton
57.3%
55.4%
910 - London Towne
1.0%
Bergman
38.4%
39.4%
910 - London Towne
-0.9%
Marsden
61.3%
60.4%
915 - Virginia Run
-3.3%
Bergman
67.7%
64.4%
915 - Virginia Run
2.8%
Marsden
32.2%
34.9%
918 - Centreville
-3.0%
Bergman
46.2%
43.2%
918 - Centreville
2.9%
Marsden
53.5%
56.4%
919 - Green Trails
-4.6%
Bergman
45.1%
40.4%
919 - Green Trails
4.4%
Marsden
54.8%
59.2%
923 - Bull Run
0.9%
Bergman
66.1%
67.0%
923 - Bull Run
-1.3%
Marsden
33.9%
32.6%
924 - Spindle
-4.0%
Bergman
31.9%
27.9%
924 - Spindle
3.4%
Marsden
67.8%
71.2%
925 - Old Mill
-8.0%
Bergman
48.3%
40.2%
925 - Old Mill
7.1%
Marsden
51.7%
58.9%
926 - Powell
-2.6%
Bergman
47.4%
44.7%
926 - Powell
2.6%
Marsden
52.4%
55.1%
931 - Carson
-0.5%
Hollingshead
42.7%
42.2%
931 - Carson
0.7%
Wexton
56.8%
57.5%
933 - Compton
-10.9%
Murray
50.3%
39.4%
933 - Compton
10.9%
Barker
49.7%
60.6%
Total
-2.7%
Combined
48.8%
46.0%
Total
2.5%
Combined
51.1%
53.6%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville Supervisor Vote % vs Senate Vote %

Precinct
47.9%
Precinct
301 - Chain Bridge
Delta %
-1.6%
Dem Senate
Favola
Senate %
53.7%
Foust %
52.1%
43.0%
302 - Chesterbrook
-1.3%
Favola
58.5%
57.2%
41.5%
45.9%
303 - Churchill
-4.1%
Favola
58.3%
54.2%
50.1%
52.1%
304 - Cooper
-2.3%
Favola
49.9%
47.6%
50.9%
48.7%
306 - Great Falls
1.9%
Favola
49.0%
50.8%
49.2%
50.9%
309 - Kenmore
-1.8%
Favola
50.6%
48.7%
48.8%
48.5%
311 - Langley
0.6%
Favola
51.0%
51.7%
Delta %
GOP Senate
Senate %
301 - Chain Bridge
1.8%
Forakis
46.1%
302 - Chesterbrook
1.5%
Forakis
41.5%
303 - Churchill
4.4%
Forakis
304 - Cooper
2.0%
Forakis
306 - Great Falls
-2.2%
Forakis
1.7%
Forakis
311 - Langley
-0.4%
Forakis
316 - Salona #1
309 - Kenmore
John Foust Democrat
Chronis %
-5.9%
Forakis
43.2%
37.3%
316 - Salona #1
6.1%
Favola
56.5%
62.6%
319 - Herndon #1
1.3%
Hollingshead
43.2%
44.4%
319 - Herndon #1
-2.3%
Wexton
56.7%
54.3%
320 - Herndon #2
5.6%
Hollingshead
34.1%
39.7%
320 - Herndon #2
-6.4%
Wexton
65.3%
58.9%
321 - Clearview
2.4%
Forakis
44.4%
46.8%
321 - Clearview
-3.0%
Favola
55.5%
52.5%
322 - Forestville
2.0%
Forakis
60.9%
62.8%
322 - Forestville
-2.3%
Favola
38.9%
36.6%
323 - Shouse
2.1%
Forakis
44.7%
46.8%
323 - Shouse
-2.2%
Favola
55.3%
53.0%
324 - Herdon #3
3.0%
Hollingshead
37.3%
40.3%
324 - Herdon #3
-3.8%
Wexton
62.4%
58.6%
325 - Hutchison
7.7%
Hollingshead
27.0%
34.7%
325 - Hutchison
-8.0%
Wexton
72.8%
64.8%
327 - Sugarland
2.9%
Forakis
46.4%
49.3%
327 - Sugarland
-3.5%
Favola
53.5%
50.0%
328 - Hickory
4.2%
Forakis
53.4%
57.5%
328 - Hickory
-3.7%
Favola
46.1%
42.4%
329 - Seneca
0.4%
Forakis
53.5%
53.8%
329 - Seneca
-0.8%
Favola
46.5%
45.7%
331 - Spring Hill
1.2%
Forakis
48.5%
49.6%
331 - Spring Hill
-0.5%
Favola
51.5%
51.0%
332 - Coates
6.3%
Hollingshead
24.7%
31.0%
332 - Coates
-7.6%
Wexton
74.9%
67.3%
333 - Salona #2
2.7%
Forakis
43.8%
46.5%
333 - Salona #2
-3.3%
Favola
56.1%
52.8%
Total
2.6%
Combined
45.5%
48.0%
Total
-2.5%
Combined
54.4%
51.9%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Sully Supervisor Vote Share vs Senate Vote Share

John Guevara GOP
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
Delta %
-5.9%
GOP Senate Senate Share Guevara Share

Bergman
46.4%
40.5%
Precinct
901 - Centre Ridge
Delta %
2.4%
Dem Senate Senate Share Smith Share

Marsden
53.5%
55.8%
902 - Brookfield
-4.1%
Hollingshead
40.7%
36.7%
902 - Brookfield
2.5%
Wexton
58.7%
61.2%
904 - Stonecroft
-4.3%
Bergman
58.1%
53.8%
904 - Stonecroft
1.9%
Marsden
41.2%
43.1%
905 - Franklin
1.8%
Hollingshead
41.7%
43.5%
905 - Franklin
-1.8%
Wexton
55.9%
54.1%
910 - London Towne
-0.2%
Bergman
38.0%
37.7%
910 - London Towne
-2.8%
Marsden
60.7%
57.9%
915 - Virginia Run
-4.2%
Bergman
67.5%
63.4%
915 - Virginia Run
2.3%
Marsden
32.0%
34.3%
918 - Centreville
-3.8%
Bergman
45.9%
42.1%
918 - Centreville
1.8%
Marsden
53.1%
54.9%
919 - Green Trails
-5.9%
Bergman
44.5%
38.7%
919 - Green Trails
2.5%
Marsden
54.2%
56.6%
923 - Bull Run
-0.8%
Bergman
65.6%
64.8%
923 - Bull Run
-2.1%
Marsden
33.7%
31.6%
924 - Spindle
-4.3%
Bergman
31.0%
26.7%
924 - Spindle
2.3%
Marsden
65.9%
68.2%
925 - Old Mill
-9.3%
Bergman
47.9%
38.7%
925 - Old Mill
5.2%
Marsden
51.4%
56.6%
926 - Powell
-3.9%
Bergman
46.6%
42.7%
926 - Powell
1.0%
Marsden
51.6%
52.5%
931 - Carson
-1.5%
Hollingshead
42.3%
40.8%
931 - Carson
-0.7%
Wexton
56.3%
55.6%
933 - Compton
-12.8%
Murray
50.3%
37.4%
933 - Compton
7.8%
Barker
49.7%
57.5%
Total
-3.8%
Combined
48.3%
44.5%
Total
1.2%
Combined
50.6%
51.8%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger
Dranesville Supervisor Vote Share vs Senate Vote Share

John Foust Democrat
Delta %
GOP Senate
Senate Share
Chronis Share
Delta %
Dem Senate
Senate Share
301 - Chain Bridge
1.8%
Forakis
45.4%
47.1%
301 - Chain Bridge
-1.6%
Favola
52.9%
51.3%
302 - Chesterbrook
1.4%
Forakis
41.0%
42.5%
302 - Chesterbrook
-1.1%
Favola
57.7%
56.7%
303 - Churchill
4.3%
Forakis
40.6%
44.9%
303 - Churchill
-3.8%
Favola
57.1%
53.2%
304 - Cooper
2.0%
Forakis
49.5%
51.5%
304 - Cooper
-2.6%
Favola
49.4%
46.8%
306 - Great Falls
-2.2%
Forakis
50.0%
47.8%
306 - Great Falls
1.5%
Favola
48.1%
49.5%
1.7%
Forakis
48.4%
50.2%
309 - Kenmore
-2.0%
Favola
49.8%
47.9%
311 - Langley
-0.4%
Forakis
47.5%
47.1%
311 - Langley
0.9%
Favola
49.6%
50.4%
316 - Salona #1
Precinct
309 - Kenmore
Precinct
Foust Share
-5.9%
Forakis
42.6%
36.7%
316 - Salona #1
5.9%
Favola
55.6%
61.4%
319 - Herndon #1
1.2%
Hollingshead
42.8%
44.1%
319 - Herndon #1
-3.4%
Wexton
56.2%
52.8%
320 - Herndon #2
5.5%
Hollingshead
33.5%
39.0%
320 - Herndon #2
-7.9%
Wexton
64.1%
56.3%
321 - Clearview
2.3%
Forakis
43.8%
46.1%
321 - Clearview
-3.6%
Favola
54.7%
51.1%
322 - Forestville
1.9%
Forakis
60.2%
62.2%
322 - Forestville
-2.6%
Favola
38.4%
35.9%
323 - Shouse
2.0%
Forakis
44.2%
46.2%
323 - Shouse
-2.1%
Favola
54.5%
52.4%
324 - Herdon #3
2.9%
Hollingshead
36.8%
39.8%
324 - Herdon #3
-5.0%
Wexton
61.6%
56.6%
325 - Hutchison
7.6%
Hollingshead
26.7%
34.3%
325 - Hutchison
-8.7%
Wexton
71.9%
63.2%
327 - Sugarland
2.9%
Forakis
45.9%
48.8%
327 - Sugarland
-4.2%
Favola
53.0%
48.8%
328 - Hickory
4.1%
Forakis
52.2%
56.3%
328 - Hickory
-3.6%
Favola
45.1%
41.4%
329 - Seneca
0.4%
Forakis
53.0%
53.4%
329 - Seneca
-1.2%
Favola
46.1%
44.9%
331 - Spring Hill
1.2%
Forakis
47.3%
48.4%
331 - Spring Hill
0.3%
Favola
50.3%
50.6%
332 - Coates
6.2%
Hollingshead
24.5%
30.7%
332 - Coates
-10.3%
Wexton
74.2%
63.9%
333 - Salona #2
2.7%
Forakis
43.7%
46.4%
333 - Salona #2
-4.0%
Favola
56.0%
52.0%
Total
2.1%
Combined
44.8%
46.9%
Total
-2.9%
Combined
53.6%
50.7%

/ ReisingerGOP
@RollinReisinger

Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Winning in Fairfax A Tale of Two Districts

Reviewing the GOPs 2015 Losses in Sully & Dranesville

What can the GOP learn and apply in future elections?

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Preface & Background

An in-depth post-election analysis of the Supervisors races in Fairfax

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Preface & Background

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

2015 Election Summary / Recap

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

2015 Election Summary / Recap - NoVA

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

2015 Election Summary / Recap - NoVA

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

2015 Election Summary / Recap - NoVA

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

What Happened in Sully and Dranesville, Generally?

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Dranesville and Sully Losses, by the Numbers

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Dranesville and Sully Losses Making the Comparison

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Dranesville and Sully The Broad Comparison

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Dranesville and Sully The Broad Comparison

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Dranesville and Sully The Broad Comparison

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Dranesville and Sully The Broad Comparison

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Dranesville Chronis Leads GOP, Foust Lags Dems

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Sully Guevara Lags Far Behind Smith

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Sully Smith Captures Votes Guevara Loses

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Sully Guevaras Loss is Only Partly Smiths Gain

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Sully Smiths Redistricting Baggage Drives Undervotes

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Sully Guevara Melts Down at Debate

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Its Not About who is Right on the National Stage

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

The Press Will Always be a Factor

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Politics is Chess, not Checkers

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

What About Dranesville?

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts

Sully Supervisor Fundraising and Expenditures

Rollin Reisinger - Nov. 13th, 2015

Winning in Fairfax - A Tale of Two Districts