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Summary
Many shale gas reservoirs have been previously thought of as
source rocks, but the industry now finds these source rocks still
contain large volumes of natural gas and liquids that can be produced by use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. However, one of the most uncertain aspects of shale gas development
is our ability to accurately forecast gas resources and shale gas development economics. The uncertainty of the problem begs for a
probabilistic solution.
The objective of our work was to develop the data sets, methodology, and tools to determine values of original gas in place
(OGIP), technically recoverable resources (TRR), recovery factor
(RF), and economic viability in highly uncertain and risky shale
gas reservoirs. Existing approaches for determining values of
TRR, such as the use of decline curves or even volumetric analyses, may not be reliable early on because there may not be enough
production history for decline curves to work well or the uncertainty in the reservoir properties may be too large for volumetric
analyses to be useful.
To achieve our research objective, we developed a computer
program, Unconventional Gas Resource Assessment System
(UGRAS). In the program, we integrated Monte Carlo technique
with an analytical reservoir simulator to estimate the original volume in place, predict production performance, and estimate the
fraction of TRR that are economically recoverable resources
(ERR) for a variety of economic situations. We applied UGRAS
to dry gas wells in the Barnett shale and the Eagle Ford shale to
determine the probabilistic distribution of their resource potential
and economic viability. On the basis of our assumptions, the
Eagle Ford shale in the dry-gas portion of the play has more technically recoverable resources than the Barnett shale. However, the
Eagle Ford shale is currently not as profitable as the Barnett shale
because of the higher drilling costs in the Eagle Ford dry-gas
window.
We anticipate that the tools and methodologies developed in
this work will be applicable to any shale gas reservoir that has sufficient data available. These tools should ultimately be able to
allow determination of technically and economically recoverable
resources from shale gas reservoirs globally.
Introduction
Many gas shale plays are currently under development in the US
oil and gas industry. The use of horizontal drilling in conjunction
with hydraulic fracturing has greatly expanded the ability of producers to profitably produce natural gas from low-permeability
geologic formations, particularly shale formations. We have previously analyzed 15 basins in North America where shale gas
resources have been evaluated, and the results have been published (Dong et al. 2011). The total volume of original shale gas
in place for those 15 North American basins was estimated at
4,774 to 7,341 Tcf. It is clear that there are abundant volumes of
natural gas in North America. The question we now need to answer is what portion of the gas resource is technically and economically recoverable. The objective of our work was to develop
C 2013 Society of Petroleum Engineers
Copyright V
This paper (SPE 152066) was accepted for presentation at the SPE Hydraulic Fracturing
Technology Conference, The Woodlands, Texas, USA, 68 February 2012, and revised for
publication. Original manuscript received for review 9 February 2012. Revised manuscript
received for review 30 October 2012. Paper peer approved 3 December 2012.
1C
2C
3C
UNRECOVERABLE
PROSPECTIVE
RESOURCES
Low
Best
High
UNRECOVERABLE
Range of Uncertainty
(a) Resource Classification of PRMS
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Total Pages: 12
PRODUCTION
RESERVES
ERR
1P
2P
3P
PROVED PROBABLE POSSIBLE
CONTINGENT
RESOURCES
1C
2C
3C
PROSPECTIVE
RESOURCES
Low
Best
High
TRR
CONTINGENT
RESOURCES
SubEconomical
Undiscovered
3P
Technically Recoverable
2P
Technically
Unrecoverable
1P
RESERVES
COMMERCIAL
Stage:
PRODUCTION
Sub-COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL
DISCOVERED PIIP
UNDISCOVERED
PIIP
DISCOVERED
OGIP UNDISCOVERED
Range of Uncertainty
Fig. 1Flow chart and generalized division of resource and reserves categories. (a) Resource classification of PRMS. (b) EIA definitions mapped to PRMS categories.
Total Pages: 12
Specifications
Probability
distribution of
OGIP
Page: 7
Volumetric Analysis
Stage:
Probability
distribution
of RF
income tax, payout less than 5 years) over production from all
wells according to different F&DC.
Shale-Gas-Reservoir Model
Today, shale gas reservoirs are typically developed with horizontal wells that are hydraulically fractured with multiple stages. As
more knowledge is gained through microseismic monitoring of
these fracture treatments, it appears that they are more likely creating a network of fractures. Thus, shale reservoirs may behave as
a transient dual-porosity system, with the secondary porosity system (matrix) contributing to the primary porosity system (system)
consisting of the created fracture network and possible existing
natural fractures. Transient dual-porosity systems have been used
to model naturally fractured reservoirs (Kazemi 1969; Swaan
1976). This model can also be used for modeling shale gas reservoirs where multistage-fracture completions have created the fracture network. In the transient dual-porosity model, there are two
transientsone moving through the fracture system and the other
moving through the matrix toward the interior of the matrix
blocks.
The transient dual-porosity model is characterized by the storativity ratio and the interporosity flow coefficient. The storativity
ratio, x, is the fraction of pore volume (PV) in the fractures compared with the total PV (Eq. 1). The interporosity flow coefficient,
k, is proportional to the ratio of permeabilities between the matrix
and the fractures (Eq. 2), and it determines the timing and magni-
Descriptions
Porosity
Fracture conductivity
Inner boundary
Outer boundary
Lithology
Pressure step
Permeability
Well location
/ct f
/ct f /ct m
k 4nn 2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
rw2 km
For slab blocks;
L2 kf
n 1: . . . . . . 2
2000
Horizontal Well Count
Production, Bcf
1500
7500
5000
500
2500
Producing Wells
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Fig. 3Production has rapidly increased in the Barnett shale by horizontal wells (HPDI 2011).
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(a)
(b)
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Fig. 4Lower-damage, more-intensively-stimulated horizontal-well completions (Kuuskraa 2009). (a) Cemented-liner, multistagefracturing method; initial Barnett shale well completion. (b) OHMS completion; latest Barnett shale well completion.
Range
100600
45
0.000070.005
2543
60125
6,5008,500
3,0005,000
60160
0.61.6
2.45.1
Layer Data
Value
Reservoir temperature ( F)
Flowing bottomhole pressure (psia)
Reservoir length (ft)
Reservoir width (ft)
Fracture half-length (ft)
Horizontal-well length (ft)
Number of fracture stages
k (dimensionless)
x (dimensionless)
Bulk density (g/cm3)
200
500
4,800
1,000
350
4,000
10
7 107
0.01
2.5
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TABLE 4INITIAL AND FINAL DISTRIBUTIONS FOR UNCERTAIN BARNETT SHALE PARAMETERS
Initial Uniform Distributions
Parameters
Minimum
100
3,000
0.00007
0.25
0.04
60
Final Distributions
Maximum
Distribution Type
Minimum
Median
Maximum
600
5,000
0.005
0.43
0.05
125
Log-normal
Uniform
Log-normal
Uniform
Uniform
Triangular
200
50
0.0005
0.0005
3,000
0.25
0.04
60
5,000
0.43
0.05
125
100
Loglogistic (c, b, a) log-logistic distribution with location parameter c, scale parameter b, and shape parameter a.
Lognorm (l, r) log-normal distribution with specified mean and standard deviation.
Percentile, %
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
2
3
5-year Cumulative Production, Bcf/well
Field Data
Simulation Result
Fig. 5Probability distribution of cumulative-gas-production (5-year) match result for the Barnett shale.
43; 560Ah/1 Sw
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Bgi
0:02329 ZT
p
In addition to free gas, shale can hold significant quantities of
gas adsorbed on the surface of the organics in the shale formation.
Adsorbed gas can be the dominant in-place resource for shallow,
organic-rich shales. A Langmuir isotherm is established for the
prospective area of the basin by use of available data on TOC and
thermal maturity to establish the Langmuir volume (VL) and pressure (PL).
Adsorbed gas in place (GIP) is then calculated by use of Eq. 4:
where Bgi
VL p
.
PL p
1.E+05
Field Data From Barnett Shale
Simulated by UGRAS(P90)
Production, Mcf/Month
Simulated by UGRAS(Mean)
Simulated by UGRAS(P50)
Simulated by UGRAS(P10)
1.E+04
1.E+03
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Month
Fig. 6Average Barnett shale gas production of 1,492 wells overlaid by the simulated TRR distribution.
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50
OGIP, Bcf
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0.4
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4
TRR, Bcf
Fig. 8Probabilistic distribution of TRR/111 acres with a 25year life for the Barnett shale.
Percentile
Operating Cost
20
40
60
Recovery Factor, %
80
USD/Mcf
Working interest
Royalty burden
Severance taxes
Gas shrinkage
Simulated by UGRAS
Lognorm(20,10,Shift(0.3))
100
The probability distributions for OGIP, TRR, and RF are generated by reservoir parameters in Table 2 and finalized density
functions in Table 3. The P10, P50, and P90 values of OGIP are
8.4, 12.2, and 17.8 Bcf/111 acres, respectively (Fig. 7).
We chose a 25-year production history rather than 30 or 40
years. In the current economic environment, no one really cares
how much gas will be on the books 40 years from now. However,
in future work, we plan to vary the well life to determine whether
it really makes a difference in terms of both TRR and ERR.
1
0.8
ERR/TRR, Bcf/Bcf
Page: 10
Percentile
Percentile
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Stage:
0.6
0.4
0.2
100%
25%
7%
6%
0
1
10
Gas Price, $/Mcf
F&DC = 5, MMS
F&DC = 1, MMS
F&DC = 6, MMS
F&DC = 2, MMS
F&DC = 7, MMS
F&DC = 3, MMS
F&DC = 4, MMS
P10
P50
P90
OGIP (Tcf)
TRR (Tcf)
ERR (Tcf)
242
32
6
352
63
12
513
130
26
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Fig. 11Eagle Ford extends across south Texas with updip oil, middip condensate, and downdip gas windows.
8000
Well Count
Gas
200
300
100
150
Well Count
450
300
Laternal Length, ft
600
400
Production, Bcf
6000
4000
2000
0
0
0
2008
2009
2010
2008
2009
2011
2010
2011
Year
Year
Fig. 12Annual dry-gas production in the Eagle Ford shale
(HPDI 2011).
Fig. 13The trend of average lateral length of Eagle Ford horizontal wells over time (data provided by Unconventional
Resources LLC, personal communication with G. Vonieff).
11
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Depth (ft)
Net pay (ft)
System permeability (md)
Water saturation (%)
Porosity (%)
Gas content (scf/ton)
Bulk density (g/cm3)
TOC (%)
Range
Mean
Range
Mean
5,50014,300
3236
0.00010.0005
1244
39
796
2.442.65
0.34.0
11,700
100
0.0003
23
6
41
2.55
1.9
5,80014,400
8326
0.00010.0007
944
312
18118
2.362.63
0.75.4
11,800
163
0.0004
18
8
82
2.46
3.6
Value
Reservoir temperature ( F)
Flowing bottomhole pressure (psia)
Reservoir length (ft)
Reservoir width (ft)
Fracture half-length (ft)
Horizontal-well length (ft)
Fracture stage
k (dimensionless)
x (dimensionless)
Bulk density (g/cm3)
247
500
6,400
1,000
350
5,600
18
106
0.01
2.51
Eagle Ford shale does not exhibit natural fracturing within the formation. The carbonate content of the Eagle Ford can be as high as
70%. The high carbonate content and consequently lower clay
content make the Eagle Ford more brittle and easier to stimulate
through hydraulic fracturing than other shales with less carbonate.
Typical fracture half-length of the Eagle Ford shale is 350 ft, with
8 to 10 fracture stages (Kennedy 2010).
Ford shale have been completed and produced for more than 12
months. We initially assigned uniform density functions for net
pay, initial pressure, water saturation, porosity, permeability, and
gas content within their parameter ranges (Table 9). We did not
consider possible correlation among these parameters. These six
density functions were refined until a reasonable match between
simulated and actual 1-year cumulative production was obtained.
Table 9 also summarizes the final distributions for the six uncertain parameters.
The red curve in Fig. 14 shows the cumulative probability distribution of 1-year cumulative production from the 152 horizontal
wells. The blue curve is the cumulative probability distribution
from 1,000 random realizations of 1-year cumulative production
simulated by UGRAS with the parameters in Table 8 and final
distributions in Table 9.
As a further check of the model, we compared simulated and
actual production-decline trends. We calculated the average well
monthly gas production from the 152 wells over the first 12
months (Fig. 15). From the probabilistic model described in
Tables 7 and 8, we plotted well production curves corresponding
to the mean, P10, P50, and P90 1-year cumulative production values (Fig. 15). The simulated production curves were run out to 25
years to observe the long-term production trends.
Reservoir Parameters. We obtained the ranges of reservoir parameters from 121 horizontal gas wells in the Eagle Ford shale
(Table 7). Table 8 lists the fixed parameters used for the Eagle
Ford shale simulation. The case was modeled on a well with 11
multistage hydraulic transverse fractures, with fracture half-length
of 350 ft and a total wellbore length of approximately 5,600 ft,
producing natural gas for a period of 25 years. The assumed well
spacing is 147 acres/well.
TABLE 9INITIAL AND FINAL DISTRIBUTIONS FOR UNCERTAIN EAGLE FORD SHALE PARAMETERS
Initial Uniform Distribution
Parameters
Net pay (ft)
Initial pressure (psi)
Water saturation (fraction)
Porosity (fraction)
System permeability (md)
Gas content (scf/ton)
Minimum
3
4,300
0.09
0.03
0.0001
7
Final Distribution
Maximum
Distribution Type
Shift
326
10,900
0.44
0.12
0.0007
120
Log-normal
Log-normal
Gamma
Inverse Gaussian
Log-normal
Gamma
130
7,200
0.17
0.1
0.0004
49
50
1,100
0.06
6.8
0.0001
19
3.8
0.03
0.06
0.04
Invgauss (l, k) inverse Gaussian distribution with mean l and shape parameter k.
Pearson 5 (a, b) Pearson-type V (or inverse gamma) distribution with shape parameter a and scale parameter b.
12
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Percentile, %
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1-year Cumulative Production, Bcf/well
Field Data
1.8
Simulation Result
1.E+05
1.E+04
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Percentile
Production, Mcf/Month
1.E+06
Simulated by UGRAS
Loglogistic(1.6,12,3)
3
1.E+03
0
50
100
150
Month
200
250
30
OGIP, Bcf
300
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Percentile
Percentile
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Simulated by GURAS
Invgauss(5,17)
1
Simulated by UGRAS
Pearson5(43,1651,Shift(7.6))
20
10
TRR, Bcf
30
40
50
Recovery Factor, %
60
70
Fig. 17Probabilistic distribution of TRR/147 acres with a 25year life for the Eagle Ford shale gas window.
ERR/TRR ratio in the dry-gas portion of the Eagle Ford shale for
different gas prices and F&DC is shown in Fig. 19. With typical
F&DC of USD 9 million and gas price of USD 4/Mcf, only a
small fraction of TRR in the dry-gas portion of the Eagle Ford
USD 1.3/Mcf
100%
25%
7%
6%
13
ERR/TRR, Bcf/Bcf
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
10
Gas Price, $/Mcf
F&DC = 6, MMS
F&DC = 7, MMS
F&DC = 8, MMS
F&DC = 9, MMS
Fig. 19Ratio of ERR/TRR as a function of gas price and F&DC
for the Eagle Ford shale.
portion of the Eagle Ford shale. Thus, the resource potential for
the entire Eagle Ford dry-gas window is 278 Tcf of OGIP (P50)
and 90 Tcf of TRR (P50) (Table 11). The value of ERR will be a
function of the average gas price in the future. Currently, the natural-gas price is approximately USD 4/Mcf or less, which suggests
that many of these wells are not economic. However, the industry
is working to increase natural-gas demand, which should increase
the natural-gas price. As such, much of the TRR will be recovered
whenever the natural-gas price increases to a point at which more
drilling will occur.
Discussion
The portion of the Eagle Ford shale in the dry-gas window has
more TRR per well on average than the wells in the Barnett shale,
TABLE 12OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCREASING
THE ERR/TRR RATIO
Barnett Shale
ERR/
TRR
F&DC (USD
106/well)
Gas Price
(USD/Mcf)
F&DC (USD
106/well)
Gas Price
(USD/Mcf)
75%
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
3.1
5.1
7.1
9.0
10.5
12.0
2.8
4.0
5.1
7.0
8.0
9.8
2.1
3.1
4.1
5.0
6.0
7.0
6
7
8
9
10
11
6
7
8
9
10
11
6
7
8
9
10
11
6.5
7.2
8.3
9.0
10.0
10.6
5.2
6.0
7.0
7.2
8.0
9.0
4.2
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.2
7.0
25%
14
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0.8
50%
Stage:
Category
P10
P50
P90
OGIP (Tcf)
TRR (Tcf)
153
47
278
90
516
173
Nomenclature
A area, acres
Bgi gas formation volumetric factor, cf/scf
ct total compressibility, 1/psi
d fracture spacing, ft
Gc initial gas content, scf/lbm
H net pay, ft
kf fracture permeability, md
km matrix permeability, md
L characteristic length of a matrix block
n number of flow dimensions, dimensionless
P10, P50, P90 values for which the probability is 10, 50, or
90% that the value will not be exceeded, indicated by the 10th, 50th, or 90th percentile on a
cumulative probability plot
rw wellbore radius
Sw water saturation
k interporosity flow coefficient, dimensionless
l mean
qc bulk density, lbm/cf
r standard deviation
/ formation porosity
x storativity ratio, dimensionless
Acknowledgments
We thank the Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America
and the Crisman Institute in the Department of Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M University for supporting this research.
We would like to acknowledge William D. Von Gonten with
W.D. Von Gonten & Company for providing relevant data sets
and valuable feedback to calibrate our research findings and analysis. We thank John P. Spivey with Phoenix Reservoir Engineering for providing PMTx 2.0 for this research.
Stage:
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