2013 wage trends

Labor Market and Performance Analysis

Economic Symposium
October 30, 2014
Olympia, WA
Scott Bailey and Anneliese Vance-Sherman
Labor Market and Performance Analysis

Outline of presentation
1. Wage trends in Washington state
2. Minimum wage in Washington state

Wage trends in Washington state

Median hourly wage

$24
$23
$22
$21
$20
$19
$18
$17
$16
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
4

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

Total nonfarm employment during

recession and recovery
104%
102%
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%

USA
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2013

Washington
2014

Total nonfarm employment vs.

FTE employment
102%
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
88%
86%
84%

FTE

Nonfarm

2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment by hourly wage, 2013

600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0

<$12

$12 $18

$18 $24

$24 $30

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

$30 $36

$36 $42

$42 $48

$48 $54

$54+

Employment by hourly wage,

2007 to 2013
600,000

2007

500,000

2013

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0

<$12

$12 $18

$18 $24

$24 $30

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

$30 $36

$36 $42

$42 $48

$48 $54

$54+

Net employment change

by hourly wage, 2007 to 2013
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000

<$12

$12 $18

$18 $24

$24 $30

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

$30 $36

$36 $42

$42 $48

$48 $54

$54+

Job loss and recovery

by wage range, 2007 to 2013
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000

10

peak-to-trough
<$12

$12 $18

$18 $24

$24 $30

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

$30 $36

$36 $42

$42 $48

trough-to-present
$48 $54

$54+

Job loss and recovery

by wage range, 2007 to 2013
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%

11

peak-to-trough
<$12

$12 $18

$18 $24

$24 $30

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

$30 $36

$36 $42

$42 $48

trough-to-present
$48 $54

$54+

Median and decile wages, 2013

$120
$100.33

$100
$80
$60

$47.75

$40
$20
$0

$22.09

$17.15 $20.33
$14.30
$9.50 $11.70

Median 10th

20th

30th

40th

50th

$24.21

60th

$29.41

70th

$36.85

80th

Average wage by percentile, Washington state, 2013

12

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

90th 100th

Change by decile, 2007 to 2013

$12

$10.89

$10
$8
$6
$3.72

$4
$2
$0

13

$2.37
$0.62

$0.22

$0.11

$0.17

$0.27

$0.49

Median 10th

20th

30th

40th

50th

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

$0.87

60th

$1.44

70th

80th

90th 100th

Change by decile, 2007 to 2013

14%
12.2%

12%
10%

8.4%

8%

6.9%

6%
4%
2%
0%

14

5.1%
2.9%

3.7%
2.4%

Median 10th

1.0%

1.2%

1.6%

20th

30th

40th

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

2.5%

50th

60th

70th

80th

90th 100th

Change in hourly wage,

2003 to 2013
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0

15

Median 10th

20th

30th

40th

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

50th

60th

70th

80th

90th 100th

Change in hourly wage,

1990 to 2013
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0

16

Median 10th

20th

30th

40th

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

50th

60th

70th

80th

90th 100th

Median hourly wage

$30
$25
$20
$15
$10

17

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

with the average hourly wage

Inflation-adjusted hourly wage

$30
$25
$20
$15
$10

18

Average hourly wage

Median hourly wage

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

and the national average for

nonsupervisory workers

Inflation-adjusted hourly wage

$30
$25
$20
$15
$10

19

Average hourly wage

Median hourly wage
U.S. average

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Change in employment by hourly

wage and by industry, 2007 to 2013
-60,000
Agriculture
Construction
Aerospace
Other Mfg
Electronic Retail
Non-Electronic
Software
Other Information
Banking/Ins./RE
Computer Systems Design
Other Prof. Serv.
Temp Agencies
Other Bus. Serv.
Health Care
Food Services
State Govt.
K-12 Ed
Other Local Govt.
All Other

20

-40,000

-20,000

<$36/hour
$36/hour+

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

20,000

40,000

Individual workers, 2008 to 2013

Of the 1,150,825 who worked 1,560
hours or more in both 2008 and 2013:
Median increase of $1.77 in real
hourly wages
32 percent had a drop in real
hourly wages

23

Median change in hourly wage,

five-year spans
$5.00
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Five year span endpoint

24

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

2009

2011

2013

Percent of workers with a decline in

wages over a five-year span
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Five year span endpoint

25

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

2009

2011

2013

Median change in hourly wage, five-year

spans, low-wage vs. high-wage workers
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00

26

All Workers

1995

1997

1999

<$16 in Base Year

2001 2003 2005 2007

Five year span endpoint

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

>$29.99 in Base Year

2009

2011

2013

If you earned less than $12 in 2008,

then in 2013, you earned
11%

<$10
$10 to $11
$11 to $12

28%

16%

$12 to $13
$13 to $14
$14 to $15

7%

>$15

27

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

9%

16%
13%

Minimum wage in Washington

28

Minimum wage
jobs
Topic Heading
(optional)

29

$9.19 in 2013
$9.32 in 2014
$9.47 in 2015
Highest state in the country
Oregon second at $9.10 in 2014
San Francisco: $10.74
Federal: $7.25

Minimum wage over time

$10.00
$9.00
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00

U.S. Unadjusted
State Unadjusted

$1.00
$0.00

30

1962

1974

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

1986

1998

2010

Minimum wage over time

$10.00
$9.00
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00

U.S. Inflation-Adjusted
State Inflation-Adjusted

$1.00
$0.00

31

1962

1974

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

1986

1998

2010

Topicin
Heading
(optional)
Minimum wage jobs
this
analysis

$9.19 plus or minus 2 percent

$9.01 to $9.37

32

Number of jobs that pay the minimum

80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000

Unadjusted
Seasonally-Adjusted

10,000
0

33

1990

1993

1996

1999

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

2002

2005

2008

2011

Percent of jobs that pay the minimum

3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%

Unadjusted

0.5%
0.0%

34

Seasonally-Adjusted
1990

1993

1996

1999

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

2002

2005

2008

2011

Minimum wage jobs by industry

All Other
Manufacturing

Food Services

Business Services
Health/Social
Assistance

Accommodations

Agriculture
Retail Trade

35

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

Minimum wage jobs by industry

Full Service
All Other
Manufacturing

Limited Service

Business Services
Health/Social
Assistance

Other FS
Accommodations

Agriculture
Retail Trade
36

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

Minimum wage by region

0%

1%

Total
Metropolitan Division
Metro Area
Micropolitan Area
Rural Counties
West of Cascades
East of Cascades

37

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Minimum wage by county

0%

1%

2%

3%

San Juan
King
Garfield
Snohomish
Ferry
State
Jefferson
Wahkiakum
Columbia
Whatcom
Thurston
Pierce
Whitman
Walla Walla
Spokane
Clark
Mason
Kitsap
Klickitat
Clallam
Lincoln
Stevens
Island
Pend Oreille
Chelan
Cowlitz
Pacific
Skagit
Benton
Grays Harbor
Lewis
Asotin
Kittitas
Skamania
Douglas
Franklin
Grant
Yakima
Adams
Okanogan

38

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Minimum wage by county

5.6%

5.8%

6.0%

6.2%

Douglas
Franklin
Grant
Yakima
Adams
Okanogan

39

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

6.4%

6.6%

6.8%

7.0%

7.2%

7.4%

Topic Heading (optional)

Two big questions:

What do we know about the increase in

the number of minimum-wage jobs?
Lets compare 2004 and 2013

Has the increase (or at least, lack of

decline) in the minimum wage been felt
further up the wage ladder?
Lets look at the wage trends for higherthan minimum low-wage jobs
40

Increase in minimum-wage
jobs
Topic Heading (optional)
2004: 47,700 jobs, 2.3 percent
2013: 67,100 jobs, 2.9 percent
Why?

41

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

Increase in minimum-wage jobs

6,114
19,400

2,499

Growth

Faster growth of highminimum industries

Increase in percent of jobs
that were minimum-wage

42

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

Change in minimum wage due to internal

factors, selected industries, 2004-2013
-3,000 -2,000 -1,000
Fruit Tree Orchards
Manufacturing
Grocery Stores
Gas Stations
Other Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Temporary Employment Agencies
Other Business Services
Health Care
Day Care
Art, Entertainment & Recreation
Accommodations
Limited Service Restaurants
All Other Services
43

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Change in minimum wage by region,

2004 to 2013
-0.8% -0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0%
Total
Metropolitan Division
Metro Area
Micropolitan Area
Rural Counties
West of Cascades
East of Cascades

44

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

Has the minimum wage

pushed wages up?
$14.00
$12.00
$10.00
$8.00
$6.00
$4.00
$2.00
$0.00

45

Minimum Wage

1997

1999

2001

2003

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

Lowest 10%

2005

2007

Next 10%

2009

Lowest 20%

2011

2013

Ratio of percentile wages

to minimum wage
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

46

Lowest Decile
1997

1999

2001

2003

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

2005

Lowest Quintile

Second Decile

2007

2011

2009

2013

Minimum wage at $11, $13 or $15?

0%

10%

20%

30%

State
Agriculture
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale
Retail
Transportation
Information
Finance
Real Estate
Professional
Corporate Offices
Business Services
Private Education
Health Care
Arts/Entertainment
Food & Lodging
Perosnal Services
State Govt
Local Govt

47

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Minimum wage at $11, $13 or $15?

0%

10%

20%

San Juan
King
Garfield
Snohomish
Ferry
State
Jefferson
Wahkiakum
Columbia
Whatcom
Thurston
Pierce
Whitman
Walla Walla
Spokane
Clark
Mason
Kitsap
Klickitat
Clallam
Lincoln
Stevens
Island
Pend Oreille
Chelan
Cowlitz
Pacific
Skagit
Benton
Grays Harbor
Lewis
Asotin
Kittitas
Skamania
Douglas
Franklin
Grant
Yakima
Adams
Okanogan

48

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

30%

40%

50%

60%

Contact Info
scott.bailey@esd.wa.gov
360-735-4995
avancesherman@esd.wa.gov
425-258-6315

49