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Parte 1 - Modelo Keynesiano Simple

A. Desarrolle brevemente el MKS de manera formal. Grafique y analcelo econmicamente.


B. Busque una noticia acerca de alguna medida econmica que haya tomado un gobierno, sea el argentino
o de otro pas, durante el ao 2015, presntela y analice su impacto dentro del marco terico. A partir de
la misma identifique:
i. La variable de poltica utilizada
ii. La dinmica del modelo
iii. El resultado de dicha poltica

Parte 2 - Agregados Macroeconmicos - Tendencia y Ciclo


A. A partir de la serie cuatrimestral de Oferta y Demanda a precios de 1993 del INDEC, desestacionalice

la serie, identifique los ciclos econmicos y calcule:


i. La amplitud y longitud de cada fase.
ii. La tasa de crecimiento anual y acumulada de cada ciclo.
iii. Determine la ciclicidad y la coincidencia temporal de cada componente de la Demanda

Agregada.
iv. Busque la tasa de inters mensual para plazos fijos a 30 das en pesos del BCRA y determine

ciclicidad y coincidencia temporal.


v. Utilice los datos de la EPH Puntual hasta el ao 2003 y de la EPH continua a partir del ao

2004 del INDEC para obtener la tasa de desempleo y realice las mismas comparaciones que
en punto anterior.
B. Ahora tome los datos base 2004 del INDEC y complete los cuadros del anexo. Saque conclusiones a
partir de los mismos.

OK
FALTA ACUM (IGUAL QUE AMPLITUD?)
ALTO NIVEL? O PARA CADA PERODO?

Oferta y demanda Globales: valores trimestrales


Millones de pesos, a precios de 1993

Perodo

Oferta Global

Demanda Global

Oferta Global
Promedio Mvil

Ao

Trimestre

1993

I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000(*)

2001(*)

2002(*)

2003(*)

PIB a precios de
mercado

216,370
241,872
242,646
245,132
232,945
257,477
253,468
257,342
237,968
248,094
242,215
244,468
236,566
260,752
262,167
267,020
256,388
281,770
284,092
287,515
271,702
301,208
293,315
286,268
265,025
286,412
278,473
283,566
264,556
285,275
276,768
278,092
259,200
284,796
263,127
248,865
216,849
246,315
237,417
240,361
228,596

Consumo
Privado

152,148
166,026
166,668
169,860
164,965
177,235
174,510
177,722
164,321
166,567
164,277
168,867
164,312
175,592
177,727
183,153
177,490
191,311
195,506
199,384
187,197
202,675
200,922
199,434
185,463
195,463
194,458
199,054
186,315
195,339
193,973
193,703
182,900
191,298
181,091
169,871
148,507
158,476
156,094
157,992
153,188

Consumo
Pblico

28,507
32,816
33,440
33,048
29,309
32,625
33,287
33,158
28,422
32,937
32,822
35,174
29,323
33,526
33,846
35,467
29,914
34,961
34,107
37,435
30,365
36,015
36,983
37,634
31,328
36,596
37,668
39,101
31,651
36,689
38,276
38,913
31,806
36,843
37,469
36,399
29,414
35,293
34,922
35,652
29,351

Inversin
Bruta Interna
Fija

37,325
43,956
48,221
50,776
45,580
51,527
53,182
54,637
46,129
43,400
44,020
44,565
41,460
47,591
51,558
53,327
48,511
56,800
60,489
62,390
57,077
62,699
62,903
60,443
48,384
53,304
54,758
56,019
45,938
49,232
50,995
51,843
41,580
46,196
42,220
37,002
22,719
26,311
26,714
30,388
27,659

Exportaciones
de bienes y
Ponderado
servicios

15,396
17,483
16,427
16,058
16,281
19,756
19,584
19,740
21,340
26,472
22,734
21,794
21,991
25,888
26,009
25,513
25,144
29,383
29,090
27,887
27,854
34,144
32,623
28,729
27,991
33,051
30,903
29,851
28,976
34,029
31,357
30,725
29,178
35,590
33,135
30,612
30,822
35,036
34,260
32,372
32,380

238,577
242,599
245,903
248,782
250,936
250,391
247,811
244,795
243,011
244,418
248,494
253,807
259,104
264,209
269,577
274,879
279,356
283,700
287,282
288,279
287,289
284,604
280,900
278,707
278,310
278,110
277,754
276,857
275,503
274,774
273,009
267,650
258,703
248,599
240,575
236,298
236,704
240,558
245,959

2004(*)

2005(*)

2006(*)

2007(*)

2008(*)

2009(*)

2010(*)

2011(*)

2012(*)

2013(*)

II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III

265,402
261,535
268,561
254,330
284,376
284,392
293,467
274,595
313,927
310,593
319,939
298,696
338,244
337,742
347,579
322,449
367,492
367,539
379,200
349,945
396,227
393,039
394,565
357,096
393,181
391,679
404,861
381,222
439,767
425,323
442,209
419,023
479,964
464,883
474,415
440,884
479,966
468,141
484,213
454,315
519,609
494,042

169,567
172,254
176,794
171,056
183,635
187,558
193,374
184,976
203,729
203,815
208,747
200,566
219,462
218,510
224,989
218,516
238,547
237,976
245,924
236,762
256,322
254,163
255,269
240,313
251,708
252,454
262,577
257,804
272,151
274,854
292,773
286,936
303,565
305,385
318,608
307,159
316,298
311,929
332,913
325,838
345,534
337,708

36,594
35,568
35,743
29,591
36,310
37,029
38,056
31,239
38,281
39,459
40,632
33,817
40,510
40,688
42,445
35,985
43,361
43,807
46,213
38,372
46,709
46,538
49,425
40,991
49,638
50,302
53,209
44,415
56,064
54,601
57,309
48,822
62,728
60,211
63,764
53,197
67,006
63,597
67,090
56,590
72,745
68,875

35,024
38,707
45,248
41,571
47,908
51,702
55,936
47,159
59,863
63,851
70,961
57,963
71,050
77,256
79,484
65,878
80,037
87,287
91,547
79,279
91,080
94,665
89,188
68,030
81,314
82,614
86,151
76,918
96,680
104,586
107,453
91,899
119,730
121,794
116,041
94,507
101,737
117,519
113,856
95,778
118,207
124,704

37,788
36,102
34,164
34,870
37,730
39,416
39,813
40,648
43,953
44,719
43,011
43,268
45,716
47,481
48,502
47,162
49,701
51,287
53,635
50,055
48,927
57,518
47,619
44,130
50,622
47,493
48,800
45,975
59,846
60,700
52,415
49,228
60,117
62,760
56,151
51,309
54,386
58,276
49,136
46,968
56,761
59,769

252,499
259,240
264,829
270,058
276,028
281,674
287,901
294,870
301,455
307,776
313,828
320,262
327,110
333,534
340,159
347,540
355,217
362,607
369,636
376,415
381,524
384,338
384,851
384,300
385,417
389,720
398,559
408,588
417,462
426,855
436,605
446,575
455,545
462,304
465,037
465,444
467,076
469,980
476,614
484,807

1994
0.95
1.03
1.01
1.03

1995
0.96
1.01
1.00
1.00

1996
0.95
1.03
1.01
1.01

1997
0.95
1.03
1.02
1.01

1998
0.95
1.04
1.02
1.01

1999
0.94
1.03
1.00
1.02

Oferta global
Trimestre
I
II
III
IV

Ao
1993

Consumo Privado

1.02
1.01

Trimestre
I
II
III
IV

Ao
1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Tcnica vista en clase


Oferta Global

Consumo Privado

Promedio Mvil

Promedio Mvil

Coeficien
te de
Coeficient
Desestaci
e
onalizaci
n

1.017
1.010
0.947
1.035
1.010
1.028
0.960
1.013
0.997
1.000
0.952
1.027
1.012
1.011
0.951
1.025
1.017
1.013
0.946
1.045
1.021
1.006
0.943
1.028
1.001
1.020
0.952
1.030
1.005
1.012
0.949
1.064
1.017
1.001
0.901
1.042
1.003
0.999
0.929

1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939

Ponderado

165,278
168,281
170,662
172,625
173,528
172,114
169,501
167,115
166,007
167,134
169,943
173,410
176,843
180,455
184,642
188,894
192,136
194,770
196,867
197,551
197,340
196,222
194,513
193,657
193,716
193,807
193,731
193,001
191,906
190,974
188,858
184,269
176,991
168,589
161,362
156,752
155,852
157,824
161,230

Coeficie
nte de
Coeficie
Desesta
nte
cionaliz
acin

1.008
1.009
0.967
1.027
1.006
1.033
0.969
0.997
0.990
1.010
0.967
1.013
1.005
1.015
0.961
1.013
1.018
1.024
0.951
1.026
1.018
1.016
0.953
1.009
1.004
1.027
0.962
1.012
1.011
1.014
0.968
1.038
1.023
1.008
0.920
1.011
1.002
1.001
0.950

1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962

SERIES

PBI

240,499
241,619
248,070
248,393
251,225
253,653
253,419
239,341
240,072
240,964
251,926
251,553
259,848
263,192
273,034
271,829
281,579
283,394
289,343
290,581
290,720
282,164
282,232
276,308
276,009
279,502
281,733
275,211
274,319
274,105
276,029
274,748
260,799
245,297
230,929
237,625
235,316
236,916
243,438

Consumo
Privado

165,950
167,049
171,507
174,407
173,759
174,780
170,837
163,909
163,569
166,071
170,827
172,790
176,962
180,121
184,528
188,258
194,664
196,083
194,620
199,441
200,057
196,133
192,817
192,344
193,620
195,759
193,703
192,222
193,137
190,497
190,153
188,245
180,311
167,059
154,396
155,947
155,422
155,377
159,263

Consumo
Pblico

DESESTACIONALIZADAS

Inversin Bruta
Interna Fija

1.051
1.009
1.014
0.942
1.030
1.010
1.019
0.931
1.041
1.009
1.019
0.933
1.034
1.013
1.022
0.928
1.035
1.014
1.026
0.930
1.039
1.023
1.025
0.929
1.020
1.005
1.016
0.933
1.053
0.996
1.013
0.938
1.054
1.006
1.020
0.947
1.028
0.996
1.016
0.937

1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939
1.037
1.009
1.015
0.939

165,601
170,184
174,176
177,848
181,833
185,646
189,897
194,441
198,395
202,265
206,181
209,984
213,851
218,125
222,755
227,574
232,624
237,521
242,024
246,269
249,461
251,073
250,940
250,150
250,849
253,949
258,691
264,046
270,621
278,037
285,605
293,348
300,394
306,151
310,271
312,680
315,287
319,410
325,399
332,276

1.024
1.012
1.015
0.962
1.010
1.010
1.018
0.951
1.027
1.008
1.012
0.955
1.026
1.002
1.010
0.960
1.025
1.002
1.016
0.961
1.028
1.012
1.017
0.961
1.003
0.994
1.015
0.976
1.006
0.989
1.025
0.978
1.011
0.997
1.027
0.982
1.003
0.977
1.023
0.981

1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962
1.016
1.004
1.017
0.962

256,039
259,221
264,711
270,843
274,343
281,876
289,260
292,423
302,852
307,845
315,353
318,089
326,311
334,754
342,596
343,385
354,527
364,287
373,764
372,666
382,248
389,562
388,909
380,282
379,310
388,214
399,057
405,973
424,252
421,560
435,870
446,229
463,031
460,770
467,614
469,510
463,033
464,000
477,272
483,812

166,861
171,512
173,868
177,839
180,705
186,750
190,173
192,311
200,478
202,937
205,292
208,519
215,960
217,569
221,264
227,180
234,741
236,951
241,853
246,150
252,231
253,069
251,043
249,842
247,691
251,367
258,230
268,027
267,808
273,671
287,927
298,314
298,721
304,070
313,334
319,339
311,250
310,585
327,402
338,759

2000
0.95
1.03
1.00
1.01

2001
0.95
1.06
1.02
1.00

2002
0.90
1.04
1.00
1.00

2003
0.93
1.05
1.01
1.01

2004
0.94
1.03
1.01
1.02

2005
0.93
1.04
1.01
1.02

2006
0.93
1.03
1.01
1.02

2007
0.93
1.03
1.01
1.03

2008
0.93
1.04
1.02
1.03

2000

2001

2002.00

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

ESESTACIONALIZADAS

Exportaciones
de bienes y
servicios

Tcnica vista en consulta bibliogrfica


SERIES
DESESTACIONALIZADAS

PBI

228,776
235,303
240,033
241,967
245,406
250,482
251,114
254,230
250,307
240,820
239,889
241,729
248,375
253,911
259,743
264,476
270,030
274,047
280,945
284,742
286,216
291,824
290,935
283,518
279,986
276,823
276,025
280,642
279,688
275,188
274,486
275,328
275,779
273,490
260,784
245,933
233,806
234,797
234,972
237,367
246,138

Consumo
Privado

158,300
163,511
166,132
166,759
170,937
174,911
173,955
174,629
170,143
164,589
163,467
165,833
170,323
173,742
176,573
180,145
185,398
188,009
193,986
196,296
194,524
200,241
199,172
196,292
193,296
192,597
192,547
195,997
194,393
192,107
191,766
191,064
191,019
187,801
178,763
167,577
157,931
153,541
153,746
155,851
161,252

Consumo
Pblico

31,841
32,173
32,479
31,318
32,747
31,934
32,324
31,375
31,892
32,276
31,939
33,249
33,055
32,803
32,915
33,388
33,903
34,228
33,095
35,191
34,604
35,288
35,739
35,366
35,861
35,837
36,188
36,807
36,359
35,844
36,649
36,676
36,607
35,793
35,769
34,347
33,951
34,185
33,397
33,747
33,965

Inversin
Bruta Interna
Fija

40,734
44,309
46,781
48,453
49,567
51,924
51,434
52,001
50,000
43,356
42,355
42,402
45,132
47,790
49,961
51,053
53,323
57,028
58,436
59,403
63,096
62,477
60,408
57,141
53,989
53,149
52,596
52,732
51,822
48,937
48,941
48,308
46,783
45,625
40,423
34,167
25,720
26,110
26,045
28,256
31,825

Exportaciones
de bienes y
servicios

16,222
16,060
16,227
16,854
17,154
18,163
19,300
20,744
22,596
24,488
22,360
22,895
23,393
23,949
25,358
26,700
26,887
27,135
28,300
29,183
30,010
31,418
31,873
30,049
30,158
30,216
30,311
31,111
31,071
31,131
30,875
32,010
31,132
32,831
32,619
31,934
32,535
32,716
33,580
33,660
33,886

2009
0.93
1.02
1.01
1.02

253,926
260,131
265,012
271,846
274,845
281,067
288,807
295,313
302,054
307,699
313,988
320,944
326,541
334,046
340,729
346,574
353,380
364,554
372,171
375,536
382,011
389,725
386,505
382,706
381,151
386,610
396,350
408,573
420,107
424,377
435,487
447,115
460,879
464,669
465,622
467,327
464,104
467,479
474,295
484,075
494,590
493,772

165,897
170,211
174,444
179,210
179,880
185,821
190,711
194,637
198,455
202,430
205,745
209,137
215,345
217,389
221,655
227,094
234,533
237,137
242,200
246,343
251,397
253,847
250,929
247,989
248,662
252,961
257,439
264,808
269,654
276,437
286,683
293,518
301,339
307,895
311,741
312,995
314,147
315,269
325,542
333,418
340,929
342,058

35,324
34,091
33,876
34,269
35,007
35,621
36,089
36,160
36,895
38,097
38,459
39,037
38,970
39,352
40,101
41,503
41,628
42,560
43,674
44,274
44,642
45,383
46,743
47,344
47,140
49,251
50,405
51,385
52,914
53,666
54,424
56,593
58,899
59,370
60,663
61,458
62,509
62,741
63,867
65,489
67,330
68,011

2010
0.93
1.05
1.00
1.01

2011
0.94
1.05
1.01
1.02

2012
0.95
1.03
1.00
1.02

35,047
37,752
42,014
47,713
47,565
49,951
51,889
54,376
59,673
61,628
66,157
67,068
70,444
73,943
74,298
76,429
79,198
82,958
86,165
91,648
89,257
89,137
84,170
78,918
79,185
78,221
81,785
89,368
94,430
98,790
103,049
106,439
117,203
114,699
111,123
108,619
98,774
110,278
109,157
110,317
113,939
117,132

35,845
35,348
35,354
36,116
36,413
38,566
40,733
41,960
42,996
43,839
43,538
44,753
45,055
46,491
48,668
49,371
48,722
50,110
53,581
53,438
47,263
55,586
47,832
48,079
48,063
45,411
49,491
51,037
56,789
57,078
54,032
54,814
57,369
57,986
58,089
56,451
52,229
52,830
51,055
51,717
54,182
53,767

2013 Promedio
0.94
0.939031
1.036570
1.008926
1.014543

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 Promedio
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Cuadro 14.1
Oferta y Demanda Globales: tendencia-ciclo suavizada (1)
Millones de pesos, a precios de 1993
Datos indec
Perodo

Oferta y Demanda Globales

PIB

Importaciones

Consumo
Privado

Consumo
Pblico

Ao

Trimestre

IIBF

1993

I
II
III
IV

229,787
234,809
239,298
243,076

19,120
21,265
23,216
24,867

159,359
162,614
165,610
168,506

31,904
32,065
32,135
32,184

41,121
44,042
46,566
48,544

1994

I
II
III
IV

246,726
249,865
251,474
250,581

26,137
26,870
26,925
26,325

171,328
173,503
174,184
172,782

32,161
32,075
31,935
31,842

50,249
51,499
51,834
50,793

1995

I
II
III
IV

247,519
243,864
241,822
242,921

25,237
24,096
23,500
23,958

169,754
166,563
165,056
166,121

31,872
32,049
32,381
32,705

48,429
45,547
43,529
43,385

1996

I
II
III
IV

247,158
253,114
259,300
265,083

25,375
27,278
29,258
31,196

169,171
172,794
176,538
180,499

32,854
32,873
33,015
33,342

44,885
47,080
49,284
51,440

1997

I
II
III
IV

270,607
275,805
280,672
285,024

33,099
34,924
36,607
38,120

184,773
189,006
192,962
196,337

33,674
33,870
34,082
34,446

53,680
56,019
58,395
60,606

1998

I
II
III
IV

288,414
289,621
287,881
284,051

39,249
39,521
38,619
36,859

198,656
199,273
198,303
196,290

34,874
35,204
35,449
35,627

62,071
62,068
60,374
57,635

1999

I
II
III
IV

280,310
278,109
277,567
277,565

35,238
34,465
34,510
34,735

194,321
193,225
193,322
193,869

35,774
35,938
36,131
36,286

55,001
53,288
52,420
51,843

2000 (*)

I
II
III
IV

277,329
276,639
276,207
275,978

34,748
34,687
34,810
34,873

193,950
193,339
192,711
192,032

36,333
36,358
36,493
36,622

51,061
50,109
49,257
48,460

2001 (*)

I
II
III
IV

274,362
268,949
259,268
247,761

34,162
31,835
27,690
22,473

190,156
185,363
177,456
168,046

36,514
36,075
35,422
34,744

47,112
44,364
39,887
34,451

2002 (*)

I
II
III
IV

238,562
233,961
234,343
238,366

17,676
14,689
14,006
15,094

159,843
154,831
153,808
156,118

34,185
33,822
33,704
33,774

29,551
26,638
26,249
27,959

2003(*)

I
II
III
IV

244,593
251,764
258,855
265,116

17,045
19,247
21,514
23,821

160,442
165,351
170,114
174,456

33,914
34,010
34,049
34,152

30,937
34,467
38,164
41,789

2004(*)

I
II
III
IV

270,714
276,045
281,855
288,116

25,959
27,704
29,154
30,549

178,483
182,284
186,172
190,259

34,452
34,925
35,445
35,924

45,025
47,661
49,898
52,235

2005(*)

I
II
III
IV

294,619
301,054
307,447
313,765

31,895
33,154
34,361
35,678

194,456
198,459
202,219
205,819

36,423
37,043
37,740
38,336

55,079
58,355
61,711
64,858

2006(*)

I
II
III
IV

320,214
326,761
333,480
340,203

37,157
38,714
40,396
42,220

209,431
213,222
217,420
222,032

38,743
39,075
39,547
40,232

67,720
70,202
72,274
74,112

2007(*)

I
II
III
IV

347,366
355,128
363,316
370,986

44,103
46,235
48,955
52,125

2008(*)

I
II
III
IV

377,586
382,545
385,328
385,478

54,759
55,518
53,738
50,023

2009(*)

I
II
III
IV

384,434
384,821
388,831
396,259

46,093
43,932
44,712
48,066

2010(*)

I
II
III
IV

405,523
415,286
425,414
436,034

52,540
56,832
60,555
63,972

2011(*)

I
II
III
IV

446,934
456,462
462,863
465,533

67,177
69,583
70,234
68,904

2012(*)

I
II
III
IV

465,932
466,288
468,731
473,724

65,068
61,243
65,865
67,302

2013(*)

I
II
III

481,619
488,741
494,055

69,472
70,443
69,741

Fuente: Direccin Nacional de Cuentas Nacionales

(1).- El
documento
en el que se
exponen las
opciones de
desestacion
alizacin
seleccionad
as a partir
del
I Trimestre
de 2006 se
encuentra
en:
http://www.m
econ.gov.ar/
secpro/dir_c
n/desestacio
nalizacion/o
pcionestrime
stralesx12_a
rima.pdf.

(*) Estimaciones preliminares


NOTA: Los totales por suma pueden no coincidir por redondeos en las cifras parciales

Exportaciones

16,183
16,187
16,265
16,662

17,305
18,237
19,474
20,891

22,148
22,898
23,133
23,211

23,562
24,304
25,252
26,137

26,874
27,544
28,320
29,282

30,272
30,927
31,006
30,657

30,317
30,256
30,471
30,773

31,011
31,180
31,413
31,810

32,257
32,488
32,464
32,398

32,520
32,816
33,237
33,778

34,409
34,911
35,213
35,480

36,041
37,080
38,576
40,270

41,799
42,823
43,440
43,947

44,587
45,439
46,513
47,671

226,960
232,002
237,214
242,444

41,012
41,792
42,595
43,405

76,242
79,103
82,762
86,562

48,786
49,838
51,081
52,336

247,130
250,345
251,472
250,756

44,157
44,844
45,561
46,383

89,324
89,889
87,968
84,425

52,849
52,092
50,539
48,946

249,681
249,969
252,687
257,424

47,280
48,219
49,244
50,361

80,912
78,937
79,510
82,822

47,754
47,145
47,597
49,422

263,309
269,988
277,576
285,818

51,480
52,540
53,640
54,973

88,004
93,578
98,914
104,168

52,058
54,249
55,334
55,647

294,002
301,341
307,228
311,159

56,537
58,112
59,481
60,626

109,237
112,860
113,725
111,946

56,070
56,897
57,599
57,416

313,515
316,029
320,138
326,009

61,531
62,298
63,050
64,023

109,124
107,053
106,802
107,916

56,102
54,192
52,505
51,648

333,227
339,719
344,630

65,410
66,796
68,070

110,881
114,195
117,179

52,179
53,109
53,109

s en las cifras parciales

Oferta y demanda Globales: valores trimestrales


Millones de pesos, a precios de 1993

Perodo

Ao

Oferta Global

Trimestre

1993

Consumo Privado

Consumo Pblico

Inversin Bruta
Interna Fija

Exportaciones de
bienes y servicios

I
II
III
IV

236,505
216,370
241,872
242,646
245,132

163,676
152,148
166,026
166,668
169,860

31,953
28,507
32,816
33,440
33,048

45,069
37,325
43,956
48,221
50,776

16,341
15,396
17,483
16,427
16,058

I
II
III
IV

250,308
232,945
257,477
253,468
257,342

173,608
164,965
177,235
174,510
177,722

32,095
29,309
32,625
33,287
33,158

51,231
45,580
51,527
53,182
54,637

18,840
16,281
19,756
19,584
19,740

I
II
III
IV

243,186
237,968
248,094
242,215
244,468

166,008
164,321
166,567
164,277
168,867

32,339
28,422
32,937
32,822
35,174

44,528
46,129
43,400
44,020
44,565

23,085
21,340
26,472
22,734
21,794

I
II
III
IV

256,626
236,566
260,752
262,167
267,020

175,196
164,312
175,592
177,727
183,153

33,041
29,323
33,526
33,846
35,467

48,484
41,460
47,591
51,558
53,327

24,850
21,991
25,888
26,009
25,513

I
II
III
IV

277,441
256,388
281,770
284,092
287,515

190,922
177,490
191,311
195,506
199,384

34,104
29,914
34,961
34,107
37,435

57,047
48,511
56,800
60,489
62,390

27,876
25,144
29,383
29,090
27,887

I
II
III
IV

288,123
271,702
301,208
293,315
286,268

197,557
187,197
202,675
200,922
199,434

35,249
30,365
36,015
36,983
37,634

60,781
57,077
62,699
62,903
60,443

30,838
27,854
34,144
32,623
28,729

I
II
III
IV

278,369
265,025
286,412
278,473
283,566

193,610
185,463
195,463
194,458
199,054

36,173
31,328
36,596
37,668
39,101

53,116
48,384
53,304
54,758
56,019

30,449
27,991
33,051
30,903
29,851

I
II
III
IV

276,173
264,556
285,275
276,768
278,092

192,332
186,315
195,339
193,973
193,703

36,382
31,651
36,689
38,276
38,913

49,502
45,938
49,232
50,995
51,843

31,272
28,976
34,029
31,357
30,725

I
II
III
IV

263,997
259,200
284,796
263,127
248,865

181,290
182,900
191,298
181,091
169,871

35,629
31,806
36,843
37,469
36,399

41,750
41,580
46,196
42,220
37,002

32,129
29,178
35,590
33,135
30,612

I
II
III
IV

235,236
216,849
246,315
237,417
240,361

155,267
148,507
158,476
156,094
157,992

33,820
29,414
35,293
34,922
35,652

26,533
22,719
26,311
26,714
30,388

33,123
30,822
35,036
34,260
32,372

I
II
III
IV

256,023
228,596
265,402
261,535
268,561

167,951
153,188
169,567
172,254
176,794

34,314
29,351
36,594
35,568
35,743

36,659
27,659
35,024
38,707
45,248

35,108
32,380
37,788
36,102
34,164

I
II
III
IV

279,141
254,330
284,376
284,392
293,467

183,906
171,056
183,635
187,558
193,374

35,247
29,591
36,310
37,029
38,056

49,280
41,571
47,908
51,702
55,936

37,957
34,870
37,730
39,416
39,813

I
II
III
IV

304,764
274,595
313,927
310,593
319,939

200,317
184,976
203,729
203,815
208,747

37,403
31,239
38,281
39,459
40,632

60,458
47,159
59,863
63,851
70,961

43,083
40,648
43,953
44,719
43,011

I
II
III
IV

330,565
298,696
338,244
337,742
347,579

215,882
200,566
219,462
218,510
224,989

39,365
33,817
40,510
40,688
42,445

71,438
57,963
71,050
77,256
79,484

46,242
43,268
45,716
47,481
48,502

I
II
III
IV

359,170
322,449
367,492
367,539
379,200

235,241
218,516
238,547
237,976
245,924

42,341
35,985
43,361
43,807
46,213

81,187
65,878
80,037
87,287
91,547

50,446
47,162
49,701
51,287
53,635

I
II
III
IV

383,444
349,945
396,227
393,039
394,565

250,629
236,762
256,322
254,163
255,269

45,261
38,372
46,709
46,538
49,425

88,553
79,279
91,080
94,665
89,188

51,030
50,055
48,927
57,518
47,619

I
II
III
IV

386,704
357,096
393,181
391,679
404,861

251,763
240,313
251,708
252,454
262,577

48,535
40,991
49,638
50,302
53,209

79,527
68,030
81,314
82,614
86,151

47,761
44,130
50,622
47,493
48,800

I
II
III
IV

422,130
381,222
439,767
425,323
442,209

274,396
257,804
272,151
274,854
292,773

53,097
44,415
56,064
54,601
57,309

96,409
76,918
96,680
104,586
107,453

54,734
45,975
59,846
60,700
52,415

459,571

303,623

58,881

112,366

57,064

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000(*)

2001(*)

2002(*)

2003(*)

2004(*)

2005(*)

2006(*)

2007(*)

2008(*)

2009(*)

2010(*)

2011(*)

PIB a precios de mercado

Demanda Global

I
II
III
IV

419,023
479,964
464,883
474,415

286,936
303,565
305,385
318,608

48,822
62,728
60,211
63,764

91,899
119,730
121,794
116,041

49,228
60,117
62,760
56,151

I
II
III
IV

468,301
440,884
479,966
468,141
484,213

317,075
307,159
316,298
311,929
332,913

62,723
53,197
67,006
63,597
67,090

106,905
94,507
101,737
117,519
113,856

53,277
51,309
54,386
58,276
49,136

I
II
III

489,322
454,315
519,609
494,042

336,360
325,838
345,534
337,708

66,070
56,590
72,745
68,875

112,897
95,778
118,207
124,704

54,499
46,968
56,761
59,769

2012(*)

2013(*)

Oferta y demanda Globales: valores trimestrales


Millones de pesos, a precios de 1993

Perodo
Ao
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000(*)
2001(*)
2002(*)
2003(*)
2004(*)
2005(*)
2006(*)
2007(*)
2008(*)
2009(*)
2010(*)
2011(*)
2012(*)
2013(*)

Oferta Global
PIB a precios de
mercado
236,505
250,308
243,186
256,626
277,441
288,123
278,369
276,173
263,997
235,236
256,023
279,141
304,764
330,565
359,170
383,444
386,704
422,130
459,571
468,301
489,322

CICLICIDAD

Crec./Decrec.
Crecimiento
Decrecimiento
Crecimiento

Amplitud

Tasa de
Crecimiento
anual

Longitud
5.84%
-2.85%
18.48%

1
1
3

5.84%
-2.85%
5.81%

Decrecimiento

-18.36%

-4.94%

Crecimiento

108.01%

11

6.89%

COINCIDENCIA TEMPORAL

Consumo
privado
1993 - 2013

Procilclica

1993 - 1994
1994 - 1995
1995 - 1998
1998 - 2000
2000 - 2013

Consumo
publico
Prociclica
Contraciclica
Prociclica
Contraciclica
Prociclica
IBIF

Consumo
privado
1993 - 2013

Coincidente

Consumo
publico
1994

Rezagado

1995

Rezagado

1998

Rezagado

2002

Coincidente

2013

Coincidente

IBIF

1993 - 2008
2008 - 2009
2009 - 2011
2011 - 2012
2012 - 2013

Prociclica
Contraciclica
Prociclica
Contraciclica
Prociclica

1993 - 1994
1994 - 1995
1995 - 1999
1999 - 2002
2002 - 2008
2008 -2009
2009 - 2011
2011 - 2012
2012 - 2013

Exportacione
s
Prociclica
Contraciclica
Prociclica
Contraciclica
Prociclica
Contraciclica
Prociclica
Contraciclica
Prociclica

1994
1995
1998
2002
2013

Coincidente
Coincidente
Coincidente
Coincidente
Coincidente

Exportaci
ones
1994
1995
1998
2002
2013

Rezagado
Rezagado
Coincidente
Rezagado
Lider

Relacin PBI con tasa de inters de Plazo fijo a 30 das


Contracclica
Informacin utilizada

Lder

Tasa de
Crecimiento
acumulado

Consumo
Privado
163,676
173,608
166,008
175,196
190,922
197,557
193,610
192,332
181,290
155,267
167,951
183,906
200,317
215,882
235,241
250,629
251,763
274,396
303,623
317,075
336,360

Crec./Decrec.
Crecimiento
Decrecimiento
Crecimiento

Amplitud

Tasa de
Crecimiento
anual

Longitud

6.07%
-4.38%
19.00%

1
1
3

6.07%
-4.38%
5.97%

Decrecimiento

-21.41%

-5.84%

Crecimiento

116.63%

11

7.28%

Demanda G
Tasa de
Crecimiento
acumulado

Consumo
Pblico
31,953
32,095
32,339
33,041
34,104
35,249
36,173
36,382
35,629
33,820
34,314
35,247
37,403
39,365
42,341
45,261
48,535
53,097
58,881
62,723
66,070

Crec./Decrec.
Crecimiento

Amplitud

Tasa de
Crecimiento
anual

Longitud

13.86%

1.87%

Decrecimiento

-7.04%

-3.59%

Crecimiento

95.36%

11

6.28%

Demanda Global
Tasa de
Crecimiento
acumulado

Inversin
Bruta
Interna Fija
45,069
51,231
44,528
48,484
57,047
60,781
53,116
49,502
41,750
26,533
36,659
49,280
60,458
71,438
81,187
88,553
79,527
96,409
112,366
106,905
112,897

Crec./Decrec.
Crecimiento
Decrecimiento
Crecimiento

Amplitud

Tasa de
Crecimiento
anual

Longitud

13.67%
-13.08%
36.50%

1
1
3

13.67%
-13.08%
10.93%

Decrecimiento

-56.35%

-18.72%

Crecimiento

325.50%

11

14.07%

Tasa de
Crecimiento
acumulado

Exportaciones de
bienes y servicios
16,341
18,840
23,085
24,850
27,876
30,838
30,449
31,272
32,129
33,123
35,108
37,957
43,083
46,242
50,446
51,030
47,761
54,734
57,064
53,277
54,499

Crec./Decrec.
Crecimiento

Amplitud

Tasa de
Crecimiento
anual

Longitud

88.71%

13.54%

Decrecimiento
Crecimiento

-1.26%
67.59%

1
9

-1.26%
5.91%

Decrecimiento
Crecimiento

-6.41%
19.48%

1
2

-6.41%
9.31%

Decrecimiento
Crecimiento

-6.64%
2.29%

1
1

-6.64%
2.29%

Tasa de
Crecimiento
acumulado

Serie: Tasas del mercado


laboral
Tasas: Tasa de
desocupacin
Regiones y aglomerados:
Total de aglomerados
urbanos

Periodo

Total de
aglomerados
urbanos (1)

1 Trim. 2003

20.4

2 Trim. 2003

17.8

3 Trim. 2003

16.3

4 Trim. 2003

14.5

1 Trim. 2004

14.4

2 Trim. 2004

14.8

3 Trim. 2004

13.2

4 Trim. 2004

12.1

1 Trim. 2005

13

2 Trim. 2005

12.1

3 Trim. 2005

11.1

4 Trim. 2005

10.1

1 Trim. 2006

11.4

2 Trim. 2006

10.4

3 Trim. 2006

10.2

4 Trim. 2006

8.7

1 Trim. 2007

9.8

2 Trim. 2007

8.5

3 Trim. 2007

8.1

4 Trim. 2007

7.5

1 Trim. 2008

8.4

2 Trim. 2008

3 Trim. 2008

7.8

4 Trim. 2008

7.3

1 Trim. 2009

8.4

2 Trim. 2009

8.8

3 Trim. 2009

9.1

4 Trim. 2009

8.4

1 Trim. 2010

8.3

2 Trim. 2010

7.9

3 Trim. 2010

7.5

4 Trim. 2010

7.3

1 Trim. 2011

7.4

2 Trim. 2011

7.3

3 Trim. 2011

7.2

4 Trim. 2011

6.7

1 Trim. 2012

7.1

2 Trim. 2012

7.2

3 Trim. 2012

7.6

4 Trim. 2012

6.9

1 Trim. 2013

7.9

2 Trim. 2013

7.2

3 Trim. 2013

6.8

Notas: Vea las notas correspondientes a este serie

Fuente: INDEC

nters, promedio
mensual en porcentaje nominal anual - Por depsitosa plazo fijo de 30 a 59 das de plazo - De moneda nacional
Fecha
31/01/1993
28/02/1993
31/03/1993
30/04/1993
31/05/1993
30/06/1993
31/07/1993
31/08/1993
30/09/1993
31/10/1993
30/11/1993
31/12/1993
31/01/1994
28/02/1994
31/03/1994
30/04/1994
31/05/1994
30/06/1994
31/07/1994
31/08/1994
30/09/1994
31/10/1994
30/11/1994
31/12/1994
31/01/1995
28/02/1995
31/03/1995
30/04/1995
31/05/1995
30/06/1995
31/07/1995
31/08/1995
30/09/1995
31/10/1995
30/11/1995
31/12/1995

30
13,9200000
0000
15,8000000
0000
12,8900000
0000
11,6100000
0000
10,5100000
0000
9,90000000
000
11,0100000
0000
10,0100000
0000
8,84000000
000
8,36000000
000
8,14000000
000
8,67000000
000
8,07000000
000
6,44000000
000
7,03000000
000
7,69000000
000
7,83000000
000
8,08000000
000
8,44000000
000
8,55000000
000
8,33000000
000
8,27000000
000
8,72000000
000
9,55000000
000
10,6500000
0000
11,6400000
0000
19,3800000
0000
19,0700000
0000
15,5400000
0000
10,8300000
0000
10,2400000
0000
9,17000000
000
9,21000000
000
8,92000000
000
9,02000000
000
9,16000000
000

31/01/1996
29/02/1996
31/03/1996
30/04/1996
31/05/1996
30/06/1996
31/07/1996
31/08/1996
30/09/1996
31/10/1996
30/11/1996
31/12/1996
31/01/1997
28/02/1997
31/03/1997
30/04/1997
31/05/1997
30/06/1997
31/07/1997
31/08/1997
30/09/1997
31/10/1997
30/11/1997
31/12/1997
31/01/1998
28/02/1998
31/03/1998
30/04/1998
31/05/1998
30/06/1998
31/07/1998
31/08/1998
30/09/1998
31/10/1998
30/11/1998
31/12/1998
31/01/1999
28/02/1999

8,62000000
000
7,62000000
000
7,27000000
000
7,11000000
000
6,66000000
000
6,55000000
000
6,67000000
000
7,45000000
000
7,76000000
000
7,44000000
000
7,53000000
000
7,60000000
000
7,33000000
000
6,92000000
000
6,77000000
000
6,67000000
000
6,49000000
000
6,43000000
000
6,42000000
000
6,38000000
000
6,43000000
000
6,70000000
000
8,78000000
000
8,28000000
000
7,71000000
000
6,81000000
000
6,76000000
000
6,69000000
000
6,68000000
000
6,63000000
000
6,71000000
000
7,23000000
000
10,3400000
0000
9,16000000
000
7,97000000
000
8,05000000
000
9,18000000
000
8,31000000
000

31/03/1999
30/04/1999
31/05/1999
30/06/1999
31/07/1999
31/08/1999
30/09/1999
31/10/1999
30/11/1999
31/12/1999
31/01/2000
29/02/2000
31/03/2000
30/04/2000
31/05/2000
30/06/2000
31/07/2000
31/08/2000
30/09/2000
31/10/2000
30/11/2000
31/12/2000
31/01/2001
28/02/2001
31/03/2001
30/04/2001
31/05/2001
30/06/2001
31/07/2001
31/08/2001
30/09/2001
31/10/2001
30/11/2001
31/12/2001
31/01/2002
28/02/2002

6,84000000
000
6,08000000
000
6,29000000
000
7,46000000
000
7,66000000
000
7,64000000
000
8,04000000
000
9,36000000
000
9,42000000
000
10,2800000
0000
7,86000000
000
8,24000000
000
7,29000000
000
7,22000000
000
8,05000000
000
7,62000000
000
7,35000000
000
7,25000000
000
7,86000000
000
8,44000000
000
10,6200000
0000
12,2600000
0000
8,66000000
000
6,56000000
000
10,8100000
0000
13,7200000
0000
13,5700000
0000
10,9600000
0000
21,2200000
0000
25,8200000
0000
21,5600000
0000
21,7200000
0000
31,9400000
0000
7,42000000
000
5,53000000
000
7,61000000
000

31/03/2002
30/04/2002
31/05/2002
30/06/2002
31/07/2002
31/08/2002
30/09/2002
31/10/2002
30/11/2002
31/12/2002
31/01/2003
28/02/2003
31/03/2003
30/04/2003
31/05/2003
30/06/2003
31/07/2003
31/08/2003
30/09/2003
31/10/2003
30/11/2003
31/12/2003
31/01/2004
29/02/2004
31/03/2004
30/04/2004
31/05/2004
30/06/2004
31/07/2004
31/08/2004
30/09/2004
31/10/2004
30/11/2004
31/12/2004
31/01/2005
28/02/2005
31/03/2005

15,0500000
0000
46,0000000
0000
64,5800000
0000
72,1700000
0000
76,7000000
0000
65,0500000
0000
44,4600000
0000
34,1300000
0000
19,0100000
0000
20,7200000
0000
17,0300000
0000
17,5500000
0000
20,2600000
0000
19,4000000
0000
12,5800000
0000
9,64000000
000
5,57000000
000
4,08000000
000
4,08000000
000
4,14000000
000
4,13000000
000
3,47000000
000
2,62000000
000
2,23000000
000
2,23000000
000
2,09000000
000
2,45000000
000
2,44000000
000
2,50000000
000
2,79000000
000
2,94000000
000
3,06000000
000
3,01000000
000
3,01000000
000
2,84000000
000
2,72000000
000
2,78000000
000

30/04/2005
31/05/2005
30/06/2005
31/07/2005
31/08/2005
30/09/2005
31/10/2005
30/11/2005
31/12/2005
31/01/2006
28/02/2006
31/03/2006
30/04/2006
31/05/2006
30/06/2006
31/07/2006
31/08/2006
30/09/2006
31/10/2006
30/11/2006
31/12/2006
31/01/2007
28/02/2007
31/03/2007
30/04/2007
31/05/2007
30/06/2007
31/07/2007
31/08/2007
30/09/2007
31/10/2007
30/11/2007
31/12/2007
31/01/2008
29/02/2008
31/03/2008
30/04/2008

3,13000000
000
3,67000000
000
3,81000000
000
4,21000000
000
4,06000000
000
4,11000000
000
4,29000000
000
4,48000000
000
5,05000000
000
5,54000000
000
5,51000000
000
5,82000000
000
6,37000000
000
6,57000000
000
6,61000000
000
6,78000000
000
6,95000000
000
6,88000000
000
6,70000000
000
6,82000000
000
6,48000000
000
7,42000000
000
7,03000000
000
7,12000000
000
7,06000000
000
6,82000000
000
6,74000000
000
7,00000000
000
8,31000000
000
9,69000000
000
9,57000000
000
9,29000000
000
9,62000000
000
8,76000000
000
7,98000000
000
8,03000000
000
8,04000000
000

31/05/2008
30/06/2008
31/07/2008
31/08/2008
30/09/2008
31/10/2008
30/11/2008
31/12/2008
31/01/2009
28/02/2009
31/03/2009
30/04/2009
31/05/2009
30/06/2009
31/07/2009
31/08/2009
30/09/2009
31/10/2009
30/11/2009
31/12/2009
31/01/2010
28/02/2010
31/03/2010
30/04/2010
31/05/2010
30/06/2010
31/07/2010
31/08/2010
30/09/2010
31/10/2010
30/11/2010
31/12/2010
31/01/2011
28/02/2011
31/03/2011
30/04/2011
31/05/2011
30/06/2011

9,66000000
000
13,0100000
0000
11,7800000
0000
10,1900000
0000
10,8400000
0000
11,8700000
0000
16,3200000
0000
16,1100000
0000
14,2300000
0000
11,6300000
0000
11,6800000
0000
11,8200000
0000
11,8000000
0000
12,0100000
0000
11,9500000
0000
11,8100000
0000
11,3600000
0000
11,0300000
0000
10,3900000
0000
9,53000000
000
9,45000000
000
9,25000000
000
9,11000000
000
8,91000000
000
8,78000000
000
9,00000000
000
9,16000000
000
9,25000000
000
9,27000000
000
9,17000000
000
9,04000000
000
9,63000000
000
9,66000000
000
9,49000000
000
9,48000000
000
9,41000000
000
9,58000000
000
9,65000000
000

31/07/2011
31/08/2011
30/09/2011
31/10/2011
30/11/2011
31/12/2011
31/01/2012
29/02/2012
31/03/2012
30/04/2012
31/05/2012
30/06/2012
31/07/2012
31/08/2012
30/09/2012
31/10/2012
30/11/2012
31/12/2012
31/01/2013
28/02/2013
31/03/2013
30/04/2013
31/05/2013
30/06/2013
31/07/2013
31/08/2013
30/09/2013

9,68000000
000
10,1200000
0000
10,5500000
0000
12,0400000
0000
13,7900000
0000
14,7100000
0000
12,6400000
0000
12,3300000
0000
11,7900000
0000
11,2900000
0000
11,3200000
0000
11,2000000
0000
11,4500000
0000
11,7700000
0000
12,0800000
0000
12,2900000
0000
12,3100000
0000
13,8300000
0000
13,0400000
0000
13,2200000
0000
13,6500000
0000
13,8500000
0000
14,6800000
0000
15,1600000
0000
14,8200000
0000
15,3400000
0000
15,4000000
0000

De moneda nacional