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By Jeffrey Stensland, Zachary R. Gaumer, and Mark E. Miller


doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2009.0599

Private-Payer Profits Can Induce


HEALTH AFFAIRS 29,
NO. 5 (2010): –
©2010 Project HOPE—
The People-to-People Health

Negative Medicare Margins Foundation, Inc.

Jeffrey Stensland
(JStensland@medpac.gov) is a
ABSTRACT A common assumption is that hospitals have little control over principal policy analyst at the
their costs and must charge high rates to private health insurers when Medicare Payment Advisory
Commission (MedPAC) in
Medicare rates are lower than hospital costs. We present evidence that Washington, D.C.
contradicts that common assumption. Hospitals with strong market
Zachary R. Gaumer is a senior
power and higher private-payer and other revenues appear to have less analyst at MedPAC.
pressure to constrain their costs. Thus, these hospitals have higher costs
Mark E. Miller is the
per unit of service, which can lead to losses on Medicare patients.
executive director of MedPAC.
Hospitals under more financial pressure—with less market share and less
ability to charge higher private rates—often constrain costs and can
generate profits on Medicare patients.

H
ospitals’ profit margins on higher costs result in lower Medicare margins
privately insured patients have because costs do not affect Medicare revenues,
risen dramatically in recent which for hospitals are largely based on predeter-
years, while profit margins on mined payment rates. The apparent chain of cau-
Medicare patients have fallen. sation is as follows. Strong market power leads
Payment and cost data gathered by the American hospitals to reap higher revenues from private
Hospital Association (AHA) reveal that the aver- payers. This in turn leads these hospitals to have
age payment-to-cost ratio for privately insured weaker cost controls. The weaker cost controls
patients rose from 116 percent of costs in 1999 to lead to higher costs per unit of service. As a
132 percent of costs in 2007.1–4 result, hospitals have a narrower margin on their
At the same time, the average payment-to-cost Medicare business.
ratio for Medicare patients fell from 107 percent To corroborate our empirical findings, we con-
of allowable costs to 94 percent. Medicare profit- ducted data analyses of hospitals in two cities.
ability fell because costs rose faster than the Newspapers in these cities have identified cer-
3 percent annual increase in Medicare payment tain hospitals as having strong market positions
rates that occurred from 1999 to 2007. This pa- that allow them to generate substantial revenues
per explores the reasons why private-payer profit from private payers.5,6
margins are inversely related to Medicare profit One of these markets is in Massachusetts,
margins. where the attorney general has recently shown
In this paper we argue that high profits that that prices paid by a single insurer to the highest-
hospitals earn on payments from private payers paid hospitals are roughly double the rates paid
are a key reason that Medicare margins have to the lowest-paid hospitals.7 The attorney gen-
declined. First, using a national data set of all eral’s preliminary report finds that these price
of the hospitals participating in the Medicare differentials are associated with market power
prospective payment system (PPS), we show that rather than purely with the complexity of pa-
hospitals with high profits from non-Medicare tients’ health care needs.
sources have had higher costs per unit of service The newspaper accounts of the two markets
than hospitals with limited resources. These focused on differences in resources among hos-

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pitals in the two markets—in effect, the “haves” shifting argument, which suggests an opposite
and the “have nots.” But the accounts provide flow of causation. It starts with the assumption
little data on differences in costs. If the hypoth- that costs are largely outside hospitals’ control
esis that financial resources affect costs is (Exhibit 1). It then contends that when external
correct, then we should see that hospitals high- forces, such as technology or market prices,
lighted as having relatively high levels of finan- cause costs of care to be higher than normally
cial resources should have higher costs per fixed Medicare prices, hospitals ask private in-
discharge. In other words, the “haves” should surers to increase their payment rates to cover
have higher costs than the “have nots” after ad- their losses on Medicare patients.
justing for case-mix and other factors. The traditional theory of cost shifting rests on
the assumption that hospitals have market
power that they will only use if they face financial
What Causes Negative Medicare stress as a result of uncompensated care costs or
Margins? inadequate payments from certain payers.8 This
Our hypothesis is that hospitals that have a sig- assumption implies that hospitals do not maxi-
nificant number of private-payer patients and mize profits or maximize revenues.
the market power to obtain strong rates from Empirical testing of the cost-shift hypothesis
private insurers will tend to have relatively has found mixed results.9 Some argue that cost
strong levels of financial resources (Exhibit 1). shifting is minimal because of competition.10
When nonprofit hospitals have more resources, Others argue that hospitals respond to financial
they tend to spend those resources because non- pressure in a number of ways. These can include
profit hospitals do not have shareholders to dis- increasing their rates charged to private payers
tribute profits to. The nonprofit hospital’s when they face a revenue shortfall—in other
expenditures could be on service-line expan- words, cost shifting—and reducing cost
sions, such as a new cardiac surgery wing; on growth.11,12 Further, some have implied that if
acquiring physician practices; on patient amen- Medicare paid hospitals more, hospitals would
ities, such as larger rooms; or on other capital agree to obtain less from private insurers, and
expenditures that help the hospital maintain insurers would lower premiums for employers
and expand its market share of private-payer and consumers.13
patients. The empirical estimates of the magnitude of
In this paper we find that these expenditures cost shifting often rest on models that implicitly
lead to higher costs per discharge and lower assume that hospitals are minimizing costs.14
profits on Medicare patients. In contrast, we find When these traditional models find that low
that when for-profit hospitals have high profits Medicare payment-to-cost ratios are associated
from non-Medicare sources, they tend to retain with higher prices charged to private payers,
the additional profits for shareholders instead of they assume that it is the low Medicare pay-
increasing their cost structure. ment-to-cost ratios that are driving high
An alternative argument is the traditional cost- prices—not that high prices are driving higher

EXHIBIT 1

Hypotheses On The Relationship Between Private-Payer Prices And Medicare Costs

High cost Low Medicare


structure margin

(B) Alternative hypothesis: costs drive private-payer rates


Hospitals raise
Exogenous costs Low Medicare Financial rates to private
Fixed Medicare prices margin stress payers to cover
Medicare losses

SOURCE Authors’ illustration of hypotheses.

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costs. In this paper we argue that the assumption their costs per discharge. Therefore, the meas-
that revenues do not affect costs is flawed. urement of hospitals’ costs per discharge is
important.
To make costs comparable across hospitals, we
The Testable Hypotheses adjusted for differences in the services provided
To examine whether the data match our hypoth- at different hospitals. We computed costs per
esis or the alternative hypothesis, we tested two discharge by starting with reported costs from
empirical questions (Exhibit 2). First, we exam- the hospitals’ Medicare Cost Reports and ad-
ined all 2,950 U.S. hospitals that had complete justed for the severity of cases by classifying
Medicare Cost Report data during 2002–2007 Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (Med-
(excluding Critical Access Hospitals). We tested PAR) file claims according to 3M’s All Patient
whether the subset of these hospitals with sub- Refined Diagnosis-Related Groups (APR-DRGs).
stantial financial resources had higher standard- We standardized costs this way because these
ized costs per discharge than the subset with diagnosis-related groups allow a sizeable
limited financial resources. If financial resources amount of differentiation of expected resource
are correlated with costs per discharge, then any use among patients based on the severity of
association between markups to private payers the case.
and low profits earned on Medicare could be However, this approach does not adequately
primarily due to these high private-payer mark- account for outlier cases with very high expected
ups’ driving high cost structures. costs. Our research finds that such cases tend to
Second, we asked whether hospitals with the be concentrated at hospitals that attract more
largest losses on their Medicare business tend to transfer cases and whose patients are more
be hospitals under the most financial strain. If severely ill on admission. Therefore, we think
high prices paid by private payers drive costs up, that at least part of the outlier cost reflects differ-
as we hypothesize, then we would expect hospi- ences in patient need and is not purely attribut-
tals with the largest Medicare losses to often have able to differences in efficiency.
high profits earned on payments from private To adjust for outliers, we removed an amount
payers, as well as high costs overall and average equal to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid
or better overall profitability stemming from Services (CMS) payment for outliers from our
those high private-payer profits. Under the alter- computation of costs for each case. We also ad-
native hypothesis, if costs are exogenous, then justed for differences in local wages, the cost of
we should expect hospitals in the same market to training residents, and the costs associated with
have similar levels of costs and similar levels of lower-income Medicare patients—specifically,
Medicare profits. If anything, under the alterna- the share of Medicare patients receiving Supple-
tive hypothesis, higher costs and larger Medicare mental Security Income.15,16 We also adjusted for
losses would be associated with lower overall interest expense; this is necessary so that hospi-
profitability at the hospital. tals do not appear more efficient just because
they finance their operations with equity rather
than debt.
Data On Costs And Financial The result of these standardization processes
Resources is a measure of hospital costs that is comparable
Standardizing Costs The heart of our argu- across hospitals.17
ment is that hospitals’ financial resources affect Creating Levels Of Financial Pressure The

EXHIBIT 2

Testing The Relationship Between Hospitals’ Revenues And Costs


Empirical question Our hypothesis Alternative hypothesis
Do costs vary with a hospital’s Yes. Costs per discharge are positively No. Costs are not related to financial
financial resources? related to financial resources. resources.
Do hospitals with the largest No. Large Medicare losses often stem Yes. Medicare losses put great strain
Medicare losses tend to be from having financial resources to on hospitals, and they can only stay
hospitals under the most cover losses. Therefore, most afloat by shifting costs onto private
financial strain? hospitals with large Medicare losses payers. Hospitals with large
should have total margins (all payers) Medicare losses will have poor total
at least equal to national averages. (all-payer) margins.

SOURCE Authors’ illustration of testable hypotheses.

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key causal variable in our analysis is deciding


whether a hospital is under weak or strong pres- Dominant hospitals
sure to constrain costs. To determine whether
financial pressure leads to lower costs, we
can have above-
grouped hospitals into high, low, and medium
levels of financial pressure. We then tested
average cost
whether hospitals under high levels of financial structures and still
pressure during 2002–2006 ended up with lower
standardized inpatient costs per discharge in remain highly
2007. We defined high, low, and medium-pressure
hospitals as follows: profitable.
(1) Hospitals under high pressure need to con-
strain their costs and generate profits on Medi-
care patients because their median profit
margins from non-Medicare sources were less
than 1 percent and their net worth did not grow
during the past five years.18 In these hospitals, mix.We confirmed the payer-mix information by
the lack of non-Medicare profits pressures the examining Medicare Cost Reports.
hospitals to constrain costs and generate Medi-
care profits.
(2) Hospitals under low pressure are those Results
that had median profit margins from non-Medi- With respect to hypothesis one, we find that fi-
care sources that exceeded 5 percent from 2002 nancial resources affect costs. We see that the
to 2006. The low-pressure category is also re- median hospital that was under financial pres-
stricted to hospitals that would have been able sure to constrain costs had standardized inpa-
to grow their net worth by more than 1 percent tient costs per discharge equal to 93 percent of
per year, even if they failed to generate Medicare the national average (Exhibit 3). In contrast,
profits.18 As a result of high profits from other hospitals with strong financial resources had
sources, these hospitals can absorb any losses median costs equal to 104 percent of the national
they might incur on Medicare patients stemming average.
from their high costs per discharge. With respect to hypothesis two, we find that
(3) Hospitals under medium pressure are all the median hospital with large Medicare losses
remaining hospitals. These are often hospitals actually has above-average aggregate profit-
with moderate non-Medicare profits margins in ability on business from all types of payers
the 1–5 percent range. (Exhibit 4). In other words, Medicare losses tend
Applying Our Methods To Cases From The to occur at hospitals with resources to cover
Popular Press To corroborate our broader na- those losses.
tional findings—that the financial resources of It may appear odd that hospitals with high
hospitals affect their costs—we examined indi- costs have high total profit margins. In a typical
vidual hospitals in two cities.We chose two cities industry, high unit costs are not associated with
that local newspapers highlighted as having hos- high profits. For example, if Toyota has lower
pitals with a wide disparity in payer mix and cost structure than General Motors, Toyota is
market power, Chicago and Boston.5,6,19 In addi- expected to be more profitable. The hospital in-
tion, in one of the markets (Boston), the state dustry is different in several ways. Hospital mar-
attorney general’s office has conducted an inves- kets are local; some hospitals have dominant
tigation and shows in its preliminary report that market positions; prices vary widely by payer;
prices vary widely and are associated with hos- and nonprofit providers dominate the market.
pital systems’ market power.7 Given the unique nature of hospital markets,
Cost and profit data for these hospitals were dominant hospitals can have above-average cost
obtained from the hospitals’ Medicare Cost Re- structures and still remain highly profitable.
ports. Data on the hospitals’ investment port- We are not saying that no hospitals are strug-
folios were obtained from the 2005 Internal gling. As we show, some are under financial
Revenue Service Form 990 submissions of the pressure, with 0 percent total margins, despite
hospitals and their affiliated foundations. We profits on Medicare patients (Exhibit 3).
then compared the characteristics of hospitals Although these hospitals do struggle financially,
that the two newspapers classified as possessing the primary reason for the struggle is rarely
strong market power and a profitable payer mix Medicare losses. These hospitals may lack a size-
to those that the newspapers classified as lacking able number of privately insured patients, and
market power and having a relatively poor payer the market power to obtain the same rates for

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EXHIBIT 3

Effects Of Financial Pressure On Hospitals’ Cost Constraint


Category of hospital based on level of financial pressure, 2002–2006
High financial pressure (non-Medicare Medium Low financial pressure (non-Medicare
Hospital characteristics margin <1%) resources margin >5%)
Number of hospitals 837 413 1,700
Share of hospitals 28% 14% 58%
FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS (2007 MEDIANS)

Non-Medicare margin (private, Medicaid, uninsured, −2%a 5% 14%


investment income)
Standardized cost per discharge as a share of the 93% 98% 104%
national median
Medicare margin 4%a −4% −12%
Total (all-payer) margin 0% 2% 7%
PATIENT CHARACTERISTICS (2007 MEDIANS)

Discharges per hospital 5,424a 7,478 7,112


Medicare fee-for-service share of inpatient days 45% 44% 46%
Medicaid share of inpatient days 13%a 12% 10%

SOURCE Authors’ analysis of Medicare Cost Reports and claims files, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. NOTES Standardized costs are adjusted for case-mix,
wage index, outliers, transfer cases, interest expense, and the effect of teaching and low-income Medicare patients on costs per discharge. High financial pressure
indicates that non-Medicare margins were less than 1 percent from 2002 to 2006 and the hospital was dependent on Medicare profits to grow net worth.
Hospitals with low financial pressure had median margins above 5 percent from 2002 to 2006, and their net worth would have grown by more than 1 percent per
year even if Medicare profits were zero. aSignificantly different from hospitals with a relatively strong level of resources, using p ¼ 0:01 and a Wilcoxon rank test.
A Wilcoxon rank test is used to limit the influence of the few hospitals that report very low or very high costs per discharge.

these patients, that dominant providers in the (Exhibit 5). But despite these Medicare losses,
market obtain. these high-cost hospitals had high levels of over-
all profitability and high levels of financial re-
serves (marketable securities) relative to their
Results Of Case Studies overall annual operating costs.
When we examined the costs of hospitals high- In contrast, the hospitals under financial
lighted in two newspaper accounts, we found stress tended to have lower costs—102 percent,
that the two hospitals identified as having the 88 percent, and 89 percent of the national
strongest market position tended to have high median, respectively—as well as higher Medicare
costs relative to national averages—114 percent profits and relatively low financial reserves. Part
and 110 percent of the national median, re- of the higher Medicare profits at financially
spectively—and losses on Medicare patients stressed hospitals may be due to Medicare pay-

EXHIBIT 4

Financial Stability Of Hospitals With Large Medicare Losses, 2007


Overall Medicare profit margin in 2007
Financial characteristics (medians) Less than −10% −10% to 0% More than 0%
Number of hospitals 1,138 789 964
Total (all-payer) margin, 2004–2006a 5% 4% 3%
Percent change in net worth, 2004–2006 17% 15% 14%
Medicare cost per discharge (2007) as
percent of national median 112% 99% 89%
Medicare margin (2007) −20% −5% 8%

SOURCE Authors’ analysis of Medicare Cost Reports, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. NOTES Standardized costs are
adjusted for case-mix, wage index, outliers, transfer cases, interest expense, and the effect of teaching and low-income Medicare
patients on costs per discharge. Relative costs per case are the median standardized cost per discharge for the group divided by
the national median standardized cost. Total margin refers to total revenue from all sources (including Medicare) less total
expenses, divided by total revenue. aWhen comparing the highest-cost to the lowest-cost groups, the difference in median total
margins from 2004 to 2006 is statistically significant (p ¼ 0:0003) using a Wilcoxon rank test. The difference in equity growth
rates is not statistically significant (p ¼ 0:088).

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EXHIBIT 5

Case Studies Of Hospitals’ Market Power, Wealth, And Medicare Margins


Total
Total Financial reserves Standardized Medicare Overall (all-
revenue, (securities), inpatient costs per Medicare payer)
$ millions $ millions discharge/national margin margin
Hospital and city Hospital class (2007) (2005) median (2007) (2007) (2007)
FIRST CASE STUDY: CHICAGO HOSPITALS
Hospital A Strong market power, strong 1,240 1,430 114% −23% 12%
payer mix
Hospital B Poor payer mix, lack of 300 15 102 15 2
market power
Hospital C Poor payer mix, lack of 130 1 88 15 3
market power
SECOND CASE STUDY: BOSTON HOSPITALS

Hospital A Strong market power 2,580 2,447 110% −20% 13%


Hospital B Lack of market power 560 145 89 10 2

SOURCE Authors’ analysis of Medicare Cost Reports, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; and Internal Revenue Service Form 990s from the five case-study
hospitals. NOTES Financial reserves include all securities investments and combine the assets of the hospital and its nonprofit foundations. Relative costs are the
standardized cost per discharge for the hospital divided by the national median standardized cost. Standardized costs are adjusted for case-mix, wage index,
outliers, transfer cases, interest expense, and the effect of teaching and low-income Medicare patients on costs per discharge. Overall Medicare margin is
allowable Medicare revenues minus costs all divided by Medicare revenues.

ments that are made to hospitals with a dispro- that limited financial resources can constrain
portionate share of Medicaid patients. But a key spending.
reason for the difference in Medicare profits is Given the difficulty that employers have in
the hospitals’ difference in costs per case. paying rising health care costs—and the diffi-
Consistent with our hypothesis that financial culty the Medicare Trust Funds will have in
resources can drive costs, the case studies indi- remaining solvent, given current spending
cate that hospitals with the strongest market trends—payers will need to set rates so that hos-
positions tend to have the highest cost structures pitals feel financial pressure to constrain costs.
and relatively low Medicare margins. To maintain quality while constraining costs,
there should be financial rewards and financial
penalties tied to the quality of care.
Conclusions For example, hospitals with strong outcome
There is general agreement that high private- measures such as low risk-adjusted mortality
payer margins are correlated with low Medicare scores could receive bonus payments, and pro-
margins. The debate is about which direction the viders such as those with the highest risk-
causation flows. In this paper we have argued adjusted readmission rates could receive penal-
that hospitals exercise a degree of control over ties. Financial pressure and financial rewards
their costs. We find that relatively abundant could be used in tandem to promote a more effi-
financial resources can drive spending up and cient health care system. ▪

The views expressed here are those of


the authors and do not necessarily
reflect those of the Medicare Payment
Advisory Commission. [Published online
18 March 2010.]

6 HE A LT H A FFA IRS M AY 2 0 10 2 9 :5
NOTES
1 American Hospital Association. 9 Congressional Budget Office. Key Medicare payment policy. Washing-
American Hospital Association 2007 issues in analyzing major health in- ton (DC): MedPAC. 2007 Mar. p. 65.
annual survey of hospitals. Chicago surance proposals [Internet]. Wash- 17 As expected, after standardization,
(IL): AHA; 2007. ington (DC): CBO; 2008 [cited 2010 the cost per discharge is no longer
2 The data presented by the American Mar 8]. Available from: http:// strongly correlated with the location
Hospital Association on private- www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/ or teaching status of the hospital.
payer payment-to-cost ratios are doc9924/12-18-KeyIssues.pdf 18 High-pressure hospitals have low
based on the hospitals’ internal cost- 10 Dranove D, White WD. Medicaid- profits from non-Medicare sources.
accounting systems and do not re- dependent hospitals and their pa- Non-Medicare profits are considered
flect allowable costs in Medicare tients: how have they fared? Health low if median profit margins from
cost-accounting principles. In addi- Serv Res. 1998;33(2):165–85. these non-Medicare sources were
tion, the data represent averages and 11 Zwanziger J, Bamezai A. Evidence of less than 1 percent from 2002 to
do not reflect the wide variation in cost shifting in California hospitals. 2006 [that is, (net income − Medi-
private-payer rates. Two publications Health Aff (Millwood). 2006;25(1): care profits/total revenue − Medicare
illustrate that payment rates to 197–203. revenue) <1 percent]. Non-Medicare
individual hospitals can vary widely, 12 Dobson A, DaVanzo J, Sen N. The margins reflect the sum of net profit
even when those hospitals are in the cost-shift payment hydraulic: foun- (or loss) on private-payer, Medicaid,
same market and being paid by the dation, history, and implications. self-pay, and charity cases, as well as
same insurer. See Notes 3 and 4 Health Aff (Millwood). 2006;25 non–patient care revenues and costs.
below. (1):22–23. Because some charitable donations
3 Reinhardt UE. The pricing of se- 13 Fox W, Pickering J (Milliman, of buildings and some transfers of
crecy. Health Aff (Millwood). Seattle, WA). Hospital and physician assets are not included in nonprofit
2006:25(1):57–69. cost shift: payment level compensa- hospitals’ income, we also examine
4 New Jersey Commission on Ration- tion of Medicare, Medicaid, and changes in net worth. Net worth is
alizing Healthcare Resources. New commercial payers. Chicago (IL): defined as assets minus liabilities
Jersey Commission on Rationalizing American Hospital Association; and is referred to as “net assets” by
Healthcare Resources: final report. 2008 Dec. nonprofit hospitals and equity by
Trenton (NJ): Commission on 14 Kessler D (School of Business and for-profit entities. High-pressure
Rationalizing Healthcare Resources; Hoover Institution, Stanford Uni- hospitals are limited to those that
2008 Jan 24 [cited 2010 Mar 8]. versity, Palo Alto, CA). Cost shifting would have grown their net worth by
Available from: http://www.nj.gov/ in California hospitals: what is the less than 1 percent per year if
health/rhc/finalreport/documents/ effect on private payers? Palo Alto Medicare profits had been zero [that
entire_finalreport.pdf (CA): California Foundation for is, (net worth in 2006 − Medicare
5 Colias M. The hospital gap. Crain’s Commerce and Education; 2007 profits from 2002 to 2006) < net
Chicago Business. 2007 Mar 26. Jun 6. worth at the end of 2001 × 1.05].
6 Allen S, Bombardieri M, Rezendes 15 Regression analysis indicated that Looking at net worth in addition to
M, Farragher T, Kowalczyk L, hospitals with high shares of poor income allows us to avoid classifying
Krasner J. A healthcare system badly patients (those on Supplemental hospitals that have large transfers
out of balance. Boston Globe. 2008 Security Income, or SSI) tend to have from their foundations or donations
Nov 16. slightly higher costs than other of buildings as being under pressure
7 Massachusetts Office of the Attorney hospitals, and hospitals that engage and also acts as a check on potential
General. Investigation of health care in teaching residents tend to have errors in reporting of income on
cost trends and cost drivers, pre- higher costs. When standardizing hospitals’ cost reports.
liminary report. Boston (MA): Office costs, we removed the empirically 19 Allen S, Bombardieri M, Rezendes
of the Attorney General; 2010 estimated effect of SSI patients and M, Farragher T, Kowalczyk L,
Jan 29. teaching residents on costs per case Krasner J. A handshake that made
8 Morrisey MA. Cost shifting: new using the coefficients from the re- healthcare history. Boston Globe.
myths, old confusion, and enduring gression analysis. 2008 Dec 28.
reality. Health Aff (Millwood). 16 Medicare Payment Advisory Com-
2003;22:w489–91. mission. Report to the Congress:

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