The Fix

Donald Trumps call to ban Muslim immigrants is based on a very shoddy poll
By Philip Bump December 7 at 5:06 PM

At4:16p.m.Mondayafternoon,DonaldTrumpreachedaninevitablenewnadirinhiscampaign'sfixationontheIslamicStateandMuslimimmigrants.Ina
statementreleasedtothepress,Trumpdemanded"atotalandcompleteshutdownofMuslimsenteringtheUnitedStates"refugees,visitors,anyone.
ThereareavarietyofwaystocritiqueTrump'sproposal,includingthesimplelogisticsofthething.IdentifyingpeopleoftheMuslimfaithattheborderand
assumingthataterroristwouldnecessarilyfailthattestseemsessentiallyimpossibleandaremarkabledemonstrationofconfidenceinagovernmentagency
bytheRepublicanfrontrunner.Butlet'sfocusinsteadonthepurportedjustificationTrumpusestobolsterhisprobablypoliticalpopularidea.
Inthestatementoutlininghisproposal,Trumpnotestwobitsofdata.Here'sadirectquote:
AccordingtoPewResearch,amongothers,thereisgreathatredtowardsAmericansbylargesegmentsoftheMuslimpopulation.Most
recently,apollfromtheCenterforSecurityPolicyreleaseddatashowing"25%ofthosepolledagreedthatviolenceagainstAmericans
hereintheUnitedStatesisjustifiedasapartoftheglobaljihad"and51%ofthosepolled"agreedthatMuslimsinAmericashouldhave
thechoiceofbeinggovernedaccordingtoShariah."
We'llstartwiththePewdata.Trumpdoesn'tlinktoit,soit'snotclearwhatexactlyhe'slookingat.ThepollingfirmhasfoundthatMuslimsacrosstheglobeare
overwhelminglyopposedtotheIslamicStateandin2007thatMuslimsweremuchlesslikelytoviewsuicidebombingsasjustifiedthanfiveyearsprior.Pew
alsofoundapartisansplitinwhichRepublicanAmericanswerefarmorelikelytoholdnegativeviewsofMuslimsthanDemocrats.In2011,theylearnedthat
U.S.Muslimsalmostneverconsidersuicidebombingstobejustified.
SinceTrumpsimplysaidthat"largesegments"ofthe"Muslimpopulation"hatetheUnitedStates,it'shardtotiethattoanumber.(Ifwemissedsomething,by
theway,we'rehappytoaddit.)Butthatsecondsetofdata,fromthe"CenterforSecurityPolicy,"ismoreimportantandit'spossiblethatTrumpsimply
overlaidthosefindingsontoPew'sestimatesofthenumberofMuslimsintheUnitedStates.

TheCenterforSecurityPolicyisanorganizationrunbyFrankGaffney,whoisidentifiedasanantiMuslimextremistbytheSouthernPovertyLawCenter.The
surveyTrumpciteswasconductedearlierthisyearonbehalfoftheorganization.

Andnowallofthevariouscaveats.
1.Thiswasanonlinesurveyof600people.Theonlyavailableinformationabouthowthepollwasconductedindicatesthatitwasconductedonline
GeorgetownUniversity'sBridgeInitiativehasreportedthatitwasconductedusinganoptinInternetsurvey.Thatmakesitlessreliableasanationalbellwether
thanmoretraditionalpollingmethodswhereallmembersofapopulationhaveachanceofbeingselected.
2.Thequestionsaskedwereagree/disagree,whichcanfavoran"agree"response.OurpollsterScottClementpointstoresearchsuggestingthat
peopleansweringpollquestionsaremorelikelytoagreethandisagreewithaprovidedstatement.Thekeyquestionsona)havingachoiceofbeinggoverned
byShariaandb)whetherviolenceagainstAmericaisjustifiedwereaskedinthatagree/disagreeformat,leadingmorepeopletosaytheyagreethanmightbe
accurate.
3.ManyU.S.Muslimsarefirstgenerationimmigrants,whomayspeakEnglishasasecondlanguage.AccordingtoPew,63percentofU.S.
Muslimswereborninanothercountry,suggestingthattheirabilitytoreadandwriteEnglishmaybelimited.Inwhichcaseanuancedsurveyquestionmaybe
moredifficulttonavigate.
4.Theorganizationconductingthesurveymatters.Thereisnoquestionthattheresultsofthesurveywhichwouldcertainlybearretestingif
accuratewereinfluencedbytheorganizationthatpaidforit.TheCenterforSecurityPolicylikelysoughtpollnumbersshowingthatasignificantnumberof
MuslimsweresupportiveofviolenceagainsttheUnitedStates,andthecentergotwhatitpaidfor.
Andnow,theaceinthehole:
5.ThatsurveyisofU.S.Muslims.Meaningthateventhisalreadyquestionablesurveyhasabsolutelynorelationshiptothepeoplefromoverseasthat
Trumphopestorestrict.
Thereis,infact,noreliableevidencethatalargepercentageofMuslimsintheUnitedStatesor,forthatmatter,MuslimshopingtotraveltotheUnited

Statessupportdoingharmtothecountryorplantocommitactsofviolence.Trumphaslearnedoverthecourseofthepastfewmonthsthatrailingagainst
MexicanimmigrantsandMuslimmigrantspayspoliticaldividends.He,likeGaffney,ishappytoseizeonquestionablenumberstomakehispoint.

Philip Bump writes about politics for The Fix. He is based in New York City.

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