Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SECTIONAL REPORT
12/14/2015
PRECIOUS METALS Gold demand in Asia hit by weak local currencies; Indian prices at discount .................................................... 94
PRECIOUS METALS Gold Tracked US Debt Until Recently Will Likely Re-Establish Long Term Pattern .................................... 95
RISK: Risk-On versus Risk-Off ................................................................................................................................................................................ 96
CHARTS OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 97
NEW-RISK Stock market more Over-valued than prior to Previous Crashes!........................................................................................... 97
NEW-RISK Coppock Signaling Problems Ahead ....................................................................................................................................... 97
NEW-RISK Junk Bond Movements Have Been Dependable Warning Indicators Since Dotcom Bubble Burst ....................................... 98
NEW-RISK Corporate Profits and Wages Diverge ..................................................................................................................................... 98
NEW-RISK Russell 1000 Equal Weight: Cap-Weight Ratio .................................................................................................................... 99
NEW-RISK Long Term Monthly Reversal Signal ....................................................................................................................................... 99
RISK Markets Historically Fail after Three months of Falling Margin Debt We Have 2 Months ........................................................... 100
RISK Margin Debt Channel is Pretty Clear High Odds of Troubles Ahead........................................................................................... 100
RISK Goldman Joins the Chorus Warning on Bond Market Liquidity ...................................................................................................... 101
RISK So Goes Retail So Goes the US Economy .................................................................................................................................. 101
RISK Consumer Discretionary Sending Signals....................................................................................................................................... 102
RISK Net EBITDA 2x Highest since 2006 % of companies with net cash Lowest since 2006 ................................................................ 104
RISK US Corporate Net Debt Has Exploded & Now Massively Exceeds EBITDA .................................................................................. 104
RISK CBOE Skew Index ........................................................................................................................................................................... 105
RISK Gap Between Uncertainties Priced in the Debt & Equity Markets .................................................................................................. 105
RISK Beware of EPS manipulation........................................................................................................................................................... 106
RISK Total NYSE Short Interest & Monthly Change ................................................................................................................................ 107
RISK Contrasting Post October Market Drawdowns 1973s Slow Pain versus 1987 Crash............................................................... 107
RISK Historical Post-Crash Price Actions 1950 to 2015 ....................................................................................................................... 108
RISK Historical Post-Crash Price Pattern Has Taken an Average of 27 days to Double Bottom ........................................................... 108
RISK Credit Fleeing IG,HY & EM ............................................................................................................................................................. 109
RISK Credit Fleeing IG,HY & EM ............................................................................................................................................................. 109
RISK Margin Debt in NYSE Accounts versus S&P 500 ........................................................................................................................... 110
RISK Credit Risk Increasing ..................................................................................................................................................................... 111
RISK TED Spread Increasing ................................................................................................................................................................... 111
RISK VIX Pricing in Credit Problems ........................................................................................................................................................ 112
RISK Credit Always Leads Markets Its the Life Blood! ...................................................................................................................... 112
RISK The Pattern is Clear QE the Market Driver .................................................................................................................................. 113
RISK Internal deterioration in the market is more consistent with the development of more major bull market peaks ........................ 114
RISK A huge gap has opened up between reality and perceptions ......................................................................................................... 115
RISK Economic Surprise Index lower highs, lower lows and a reluctant bounce ................................................................................. 116
RISK Weekly Equity Outflows ................................................................................................................................................................... 116
RISK Weekly EM Fund Outflows .............................................................................................................................................................. 117
RISK Net Outflows as a % of AUM by Year ............................................................................................................................................. 118
RISK HG Spread Per Point of Equity Volume .......................................................................................................................................... 119
RISK Widening Gap between Debt & Equity ............................................................................................................................................ 119
RISK HY Bond ETF (HYG) versus S&P 500 ............................................................................................................................................ 119
RISK HY Credit versus 2007-2008 Credit Always Leads Equity ........................................................................................................ 120
RISK Leutholds High/Low Logic Index Sending a Clear Signal .............................................................................................................. 121
RISK Just Too Many One in a Million Standard Deviation Events! ....................................................................................................... 122
RISK Days with > 100 NYSE & NASDAQ New Highs AND New Lows ................................................................................................... 122
RISK Correlated, Confirmed Hindenburg Omens .................................................................................................................................... 123
RISK Broad Global Equity Index Sitting on the Precipice ........................................................................................................................ 124
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 124
NEW-RISK Apple Accounted For 20% Of All U.S. Margin Expansion Since 2010 - Why This Matters .................................................. 124
NEW-RISK 27 Major Global Stocks Markets That Have Already Crashed By Double Digit Percentages In 2015 ................................. 126
NEW-RISK A major long-term momentum indicator is flashing, sell. .................................................................................................... 131
NEW-RISK Malinvestment Lunacy Exposed As US Money Supply Growth Finally Begins To Crack .................................................... 132
NEW-RISK The Coming Economic Collapse Will Crash Stocks .............................................................................................................. 135
NEW-RISK "Coppock Guide" Signals a Bear Market Is At Hand ............................................................................................................. 137
RISK Goldman's Clients Are Suddenly Very Worried About Collapsing Market Breadth ........................................................................ 139
RISK Classic sign of diminishing breadth for global equity market indices .............................................................................................. 143
RISK 10 Signs That Stocks Are Way Overpriced ..................................................................................................................................... 147
RISK The Biggest Short Squeeze In Years" Says Bank of America ........................................................................................................ 149
RISK NYSE Margin Debt Declines Again In August ................................................................................................................................ 153
RISK Economic Surprises Are Turning Back Over In The US ................................................................................................................. 155
RISK Interbank Credit Risk Is Rising Ominously Again In America ......................................................................................................... 158
RISK Doug Kass: There is a Blizzard Ahead! ........................................................................................................................................ 160
RISK Oblivious To Risk - Complacency Still Reigns ................................................................................................................................ 161
RISK Why Selling the Blips Makes Sense ................................................................................................................................................ 165
RISK Biggest Outflow from Equity Funds In 2015 Offset By Longest Treasury Inflow Streak In 4 Years............................................... 166
RISK The 17-year river [of reserve currency buildup and QE around the world] is no longer flowing .................................................... 170
TECHNO-FUNDAMENTALS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 171
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 171
NEW-CHARTS International and Emerging Market Divergence ............................................................................................................. 171
NEW-CHARTS US versus World Stocks ................................................................................................................................................. 171
NEW-CHARTS S&P 500 With and Without FOMC Meeting Dates ......................................................................................................... 172
NEW-CHARTS The Median Stock In The World Is Flat YTD .................................................................................................................. 173
NEW-CHARTS 70% of EM Stocks are Still Down More Than 20% from 200-Day Highs ....................................................................... 173
NEW-CHARTS Year End Overhead Resistance to Santa Claus Rally ................................................................................................... 174
CHARTS Professionals Are Leaving the Party Early ............................................................................................................................... 174
CHARTS NYSE Advance-Decline Line versus S&P ................................................................................................................................ 175
CHARTS A month-long bearish divergence for the US 15 most active advance-decline line ................................................................. 176
CHARTS A-D line preceded or coincided with big breakdowns for the S&P 500 in 2000 and 2007 ....................................................... 176
CHARTS A major bearish divergence for global A-D line in US Dollars .................................................................................................. 177
CHARTS Be Alert to Oversold Pull Back Before Seasonal YE Strength ................................................................................................. 178
CHARTS Leading Indicators Support View The Current Weakness May Turn into a Buying Opportunity ............................................. 179
CHARTS Problem in US Retail Developing ............................................................................................................................................. 180
CHARTS Gold Reacted to Chinese Devaluation ..................................................................................................................................... 181
CHARTS The DOW Theory & DOW Transports ...................................................................................................................................... 182
CHARTS October- A Month for the History Books ................................................................................................................................... 183
CHARTS The Smart Money Has Never Been This Long the Long Bond ................................................................................................ 184
CHARTS Real S&P 500 Index Cycles with Recessions .......................................................................................................................... 185
CHARTS Quarterly Overbought Cycles ................................................................................................................................................... 185
CHARTS Monetary Velocity Declines as Excess Leverage Weights on Consumption ........................................................................... 185
CHARTS The Real Value of Cash ............................................................................................................................................................ 186
CHARTS Consumer Sentiment versus S&P 500 ..................................................................................................................................... 186
CHARTS Hedgers Net Long Record of S&P 500 Futures ....................................................................................................................... 187
CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet Changes versus S&P 500 ......................................................................................................................... 188
CHARTS S&P Futures versus Relative Volumes ..................................................................................................................................... 188
CHARTS Japanese Buying Foreign Stocks ............................................................................................................................................. 189
CHARTS Monetary Initiatives versus S&P 500 ........................................................................................................................................ 190
CHARTS Bull Trend Line Support ............................................................................................................................................................ 190
CHARTS DOW Industrial 200 WMA Boundary Condition & Trend Direction Change Indicator.............................................................. 191
CHARTS DOW Industrial 200 WMA Boundary Condition & Trend Direction Change Trigger ................................................................ 191
CHARTS Global 150 Equity Index Bounces off Lower Support Channel ................................................................................................ 192
CHARTS Global 150 Equity Index Potential Key Support Levels ......................................................................................................... 192
CHARTS The Rout May Have Just Began According to Some ............................................................................................................... 193
CHARTS The VIX Termination Algo ......................................................................................................................................................... 193
CHARTS The VIX Termination Algo ......................................................................................................................................................... 194
CHARTS Pick-Up In Buyback Activity ...................................................................................................................................................... 195
CHARTS Buybacks Are Tied to Investment Grade Credit Spreads ........................................................................................................ 195
CHARTS Coincident / Lagging Indicator Ratio ......................................................................................................................................... 196
CHARTS Annual Change in Durable Goods Orders ................................................................................................................................ 196
CHARTS Durable Goods v Core-Durable Goods (Ex Defense) .............................................................................................................. 197
CHARTS Real Gross Domestic Investment ............................................................................................................................................. 197
CHARTS Total Real Private Fixed Investment as % of Real GDP .......................................................................................................... 198
CHARTS Businesses Operate Against Actual Demand ........................................................................................................................... 198
CHARTS ISM Composite Index ................................................................................................................................................................ 199
CHARTS Capacity Utilization versus Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................... 199
CHARTS Retail Sales (NSA) Annual % Chg of 12 Month Average ......................................................................................................... 200
CHARTS Monthly Retail Control Purchases Y-o-Y % Chg ................................................................................................................. 201
CHARTS Major Economic Trends ............................................................................................................................................................ 201
CHARTS $9T Loss In Global Market Cap ................................................................................................................................................ 202
CHARTS Median EV/EBITDA Ratio for MSCI World (ex Financials) ...................................................................................................... 202
CHARTS 15 Developed Country Aggregate Bond PLUS Stock Valuations ............................................................................................ 203
CHARTS 15 Developed Country Aggregate -83% are in their top 20% of valuations through history .................................................... 203
CHARTS Death Cross .............................................................................................................................................................................. 203
CHARTS Asian Dollar Index Flags Crisis Events ..................................................................................................................................... 205
CHARTS TSY 2s30s Spread .................................................................................................................................................................... 205
CHARTS S&P versus HY(High Yield) & IG (Investment Grade) .............................................................................................................. 206
CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet versus HYG (HY Bond ETF) ..................................................................................................................... 206
CHARTS Commodity Carnage ................................................................................................................................................................. 207
CHARTS Market Expectations of Support & Resistance ......................................................................................................................... 208
CHARTS Russell 2000 Head & Shoulders versus AD Line ..................................................................................................................... 208
CHARTS NYSE - NYA Head & Shoulders versus AD Line ..................................................................................................................... 209
CHARTS Dotcom Bubble Burst 2 Year Process and a Year After the Long Trend Broken Was Broken ............................................ 210
BUYBACKS The Fly In The Buyback Ointment- Corporate Leverage Is At Record Levels .................................................................... 227
BUYBACKS Why Stocks Are Sliding: For The First Time Since 2009 Spending On Buybacks Surpasses Free Cash Flow ................ 232
BUYBACKS When Buybacks Fail... ......................................................................................................................................................... 236
BUYBACKS "Risky Business": Companies Are Now Funding Share Buybacks By Selling Bonds To Other Companies ...................... 237
WEAKENING BREADTH FANG & NOSH Become the NIFTY NINE! ............................................................................................................... 241
STUDY: WEAKENING BREADTH......................................................................................................................................................................... 241
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 241
NEW-BREADTH S&P 500 versus Eql/Market Capitalization Weight ...................................................................................................... 241
NEW-BREADTH Nifty and the FANGS in 2015 ....................................................................................................................................... 242
NEW-BREADTH FANG versus Original 4 Horsemen (Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, Qualcomm) .................................................................... 242
NEW-BREADTH 55% of DM Americas Index Down More Than 10% From Highs ................................................................................. 243
NEW-BREADTH Where Are All Of The New 52-Week Highs? ............................................................................................................... 243
BREADTH Need to Understand FANG and NOSH ............................................................................................................................. 244
BREADTH NYSE Advance-Decline Line versus S&P .............................................................................................................................. 244
BREADTH A month-long bearish divergence for the US 15 most active advance-decline line .............................................................. 244
BREADTH A-D line preceded or coincided with big breakdowns for the S&P 500 in 2000 and 2007 .................................................... 245
BREADTH A major bearish divergence for global A-D line in US Dollars ............................................................................................... 246
BREADTH Goldman Sachs Breadth Index Near Historic Lows ............................................................................................................... 246
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 247
NEW-BREADTH The Nifty Nine Never Mattered More ............................................................................................................................ 247
NEW-BREADTH xxxxx ............................................................................................................................................................................. 250
BREADTH Goldman's Clients Are Suddenly Very Worried About Collapsing Market Breadth ............................................................... 250
BREADTH Classic sign of diminishing breadth for global equity market indices ..................................................................................... 254
RECESSION RUMBLINGS Revenue, Earnings & Economic ............................................................................................................................ 259
STUDY: RECESSION SIGNALS ........................................................................................................................................................................... 259
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 259
NEW-RECESSION Y-o-Y Factory Orders ................................................................................................................................................ 259
NEW-RECESSION Probability of Recession From Multivariate Models ................................................................................................. 259
NEW-RECESSION US Corporate Financing Gap Has Turned Strongly Negative ................................................................................. 260
NEW-RECESSION Profits / GDP versus Forecast Derived From Wages / GDP .................................................................................... 260
NEW-RECESSION Decline in Corporate Margins Relative to Cycle Peak ............................................................................................. 261
NEW-RECESSION Industrial Production & Index of Freight Services .................................................................................................... 261
NEW-RECESSION Rolling Over Trend in US ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services ............................................................................. 262
NEW-RECESSION Three giant booms caused by the expansion of money and credit ......................................................................... 262
NEW-RECESSION Nominal Y-o-Y GHDP tells the Real Story Slowing Growth .................................................................................. 263
RECESSION US Inventories .................................................................................................................................................................... 263
RECESSION US Flattening US Yield Curve ............................................................................................................................................ 263
RECESSION US Manufacturing Sector Recession ................................................................................................................................. 265
RECESSION Large Profit Margin Declines Coincides With Recessions ................................................................................................. 266
RECESSION Buybacks Drop on Reduced Free Cash Flow Drop Compared to Previous Recession ................................................. 266
RECESSION Annual % Change in 12Mo Forward EPS Expectations Turn Negative ............................................................................ 267
RECESSION US Recession Estimates Pop ............................................................................................................................................ 267
RECESSION US Recession Indicator & Relative Performance of Stocks & Bonds................................................................................ 268
RECESSION Real S&P 500 Index with Historical Recessions ................................................................................................................ 268
RECESSION September Survey Data versus Non Farm Payrolls .......................................................................................................... 269
RECESSION Regional Surveys for September versus ISM PMI (August) .............................................................................................. 269
RECESSION Regional Manufacturing Surveys versus Forward EPS Estimates .................................................................................... 270
RECESSION Historical Regional Index Comparisons Last Seen in 2008 ............................................................................................ 270
RECESSION Global Oil Consumption Leads Economic Growth Trend is Down Global Headwinds ................................................ 271
RECESSION Gross Domestic Income versus Wilshire 5000 Tells the Story ....................................................................................... 272
RECESSION CT 2015 Revenue Recession ............................................................................................................................................ 272
RECESSION Q2 2015 Revenue Recession ............................................................................................................................................ 273
RECESSION 4 Consecutive months of y/y Spending Declines ............................................................................................................... 273
RECESSION BOA: Retail sales ex-autos, plunged 0.8% mom seasonally adjusted............................................................................ 274
RECESSION Top 10 US Market Areas Signal Retail Problem Underway .............................................................................................. 274
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories to Sales Spiking To Areas Seen During Recession Trends ......................................................... 275
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories Less Wholesale Sales ................................................................................................................... 276
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories vs GDP Trends .............................................................................................................................. 276
RECESSION Auto Inventories to Sales ................................................................................................................................................... 277
RECESSION Falling Collateral and Residuals Undermine Real Growth .............................................................................................. 277
RECESSION Coincident / Lagging Indicator Ratio versus Recessions ................................................................................................... 278
RECESSION Annual Change in Durable Goods Orders v Recessions ................................................................................................... 278
RECESSION Durable Goods v Core-Durable Goods (Ex Defense) versus Recessions ........................................................................ 279
RECESSION Real Gross Domestic Investment versus Recessions ....................................................................................................... 279
RECESSION Total Real Private Fixed Investment as % of Real GDP versus Recessions .................................................................... 280
RECESSION Businesses Operate Against Actual Demand versus Recessions .................................................................................... 280
RECESSION ISM Composite Index versus Recessions.......................................................................................................................... 281
RECESSION Capacity Utilization versus Industrial Production versus Recessions ............................................................................... 281
RECESSION Retail Sales (NSA) Annual % Chg of 12 Month Average versus Recessions ................................................................... 282
RECESSION Monthly Retail Control Purchases Y-o-Y % Chg versus Recessions........................................................................... 282
RECESSION Major Economic Trends...................................................................................................................................................... 283
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 284
NEW-RECESSION The Next Recession "Is Just Around the Corner" .................................................................................................... 284
NEW-RECESSION JPMorgan Warns Of "Eye-Catching" 76% Probability of Recession ....................................................................... 285
NEW-RECESSION Freight Charts Raise Alarm about The "Broader Health Of The US Economy" ...................................................... 290
CASSANDRA: John Hussman - A Who's Who Of Awful Times To Invest ..................................................................................................... 628
CASSANDRA: Carl Icahn - One Day You'll See A Break Like A Few Weeks Ago But The Market Won't Come Back ................................ 631
CASSANDRA: Sam Zell Warns Of Stock Market Correction On CNBC ........................................................................................................ 632
CASSANDRA: Billionaire Carl Icahn warns on US stock prices ..................................................................................................................... 632
CASSANDRA: Soros Bets $2 Billion on Stock Market Collapse .................................................................................................................... 633
CASSANDRA: Dont Ignore Janet Yellens Stock Market Warnings 07-21-14 Fiscal Times ......................................................................... 634
CASSANDRA: Doug Kass: We're Heading for a Bear Market So Plan Accordingly ...................................................................................... 637
CASSANDRA: Comstock Funds Weighs In .................................................................................................................................................... 639
CASSANDRA: Michael Lombardi Weighs In ................................................................................................................................................... 641
CASSANDRA: Ron Paul Portfolio, 'Craziest' we've ever seen? ..................................................................................................................... 643
CASSANDRA: John Mauldin Goes Negative .................................................................................................................................................. 644
CASSANDRA: Hayman Capital Dramatically Reduces Risk .......................................................................................................................... 652
CASSANDRA: Byron Wien Warns "Oblivious Markets" Of 20% Correction ................................................................................................... 653
CASSANDRA: Harry Dent Warns Stocks to Sink More than 60% by End of 2014 ........................................................................................ 653
CASSANDRA: Stanley Druckenmiller: "When You Get This Kind Of Rigging, It Will End Badly".................................................................. 654
CASSANDRA: Mohamed El-Erian: "Prices Are Artificially High - Its Time to Take Profits" .......................................................................... 655
CASSANDRA: Felix Zulauf: World Headed Toward 1987 Style Market Collapse .......................................................................................... 656
CASSANDRA: Doug Kass: 'I'm Getting The Summer Of 1987 Feeling' In The Market Right Now ............................................................... 656
CORRELATION & COMPLACENCY A PROBLEM .............................................................................................................................................. 658
EVENT RISK A PROBLEM .................................................................................................................................................................................... 661
Q2 EARNINGS & THE R WORD .............................................................................................................................................................. 661
POLITICAL-ECONOMIC TENSIONS .......................................................................................................................................................... 661
CENTRAL BANK POLICY MISCUES.......................................................................................................................................................... 661
ASIAN ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN SPILLAGE ............................................................................................................................................ 661
PETRO$ CRISIS BREWING IN BRIICS...................................................................................................................................................... 661
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Forward Earnings being Brought Down Rapidly ................................................................................................... 720
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS # S&P 500 Companies Citing Negative Q3 Impacts - Reasons ........................................................................... 721
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Q4 15 Estimated Earnings Growth Rate .............................................................................................................. 721
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Revenue & Earnings Consensus Estimated Growth Rate .................................................................................. 722
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Q3 EPS Expected to Fall -4.5% According to Factset .......................................................................................... 723
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS S&P 500 Average Earnings Growth Y-o-Y Not a Good Pattern ........................................................................ 723
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Revenue Recession and Flat EPS Consensus .................................................................................................... 724
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Forward EPS Consensus Matches Manufacturing Surveys Declines ................................................................. 724
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Q3 Earnings Growth (Decline): Ex-BAC ............................................................................................................... 725
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS IT Sector Q3 Earnings Forecast to be Down -5.9% Without Apple (-0.4% With) ................................................. 725
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS A Good Sign that Goldman Must Be Selling? ....................................................................................................... 726
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS It Should Be Expected that Earnings Will Begin to fall ......................................................................................... 726
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 727
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS The Most Important Earnings Report You Should Know About ........................................................................... 727
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Q3 Earnings -Where We Stand - 4 Main Themes From Calls .............................................................................. 729
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Goldman's 4 Word Summary Of Q3 Earnings Season- -Adequate Earnings, Dismal Sales ............................... 737
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Do You See What Happens, Alcoa, When Your "Restructuring" Non-GAAP Add-backs Tumble ....................... 742
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Q3 Earnings Bloodbath-Terrible Monsanto Results- Company Fires 2,600 - ...................................................... 743
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS Wall Street is preparing for the worst earnings season since 2009 ................................................................... 745
NEW-Q3 EARNINGS The Truth About S&P 500 Earnings: No Growth For 7 Quarters, With A Revenue Recession On Top .............. 749
Q2 EARNINGS Reported Results....................................................................................................................................................................... 750
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 750
Q2 EARNINGS Q2 Earnings Growth by Sector ....................................................................................................................................... 750
Q2 EARNINGS Q2 Revenue Growth by Sector ....................................................................................................................................... 750
Q2 EARNINGS Q2 Earnings Growth by Sector - Estimates .................................................................................................................... 751
Q2 EARNINGS Q2 Revenue Growth by Sector Estimates ................................................................................................................... 751
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 753
Q2 EARNINGS Q2 Summary ................................................................................................................................................................... 753
Q2 EARNINGS Percentage of Companies Beating Revenue Estimates (52%) is Below 5 Year Average ............................................. 754
Q2 EARNINGS Forward Earnings, Revenue and Margins ...................................................................................................................... 755
Q2 EARNINGS First Decline in Earnings (-1.3%) Since Q3 2012 (-1.06%) ............................................................................................ 756
Q2 EARNINGS First Back-to-Back Declines in Revenue Since Q2 2009 and Q3 2009 ......................................................................... 757
Q1 EARNINGS Reported Results....................................................................................................................................................................... 758
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 758
Q1 EARNINGS Q1 Earnings Growth by Sector ....................................................................................................................................... 758
Q1 EARNINGS Q1 Revenue Growth by Sector ....................................................................................................................................... 758
Q1 EARNINGS Q1 Earnings Growth by Sector - Estimates .................................................................................................................... 759
Q1 EARNINGS Q1 Reveue Growth by Sector - Estimates ...................................................................................................................... 759
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 760
Q1 EARNINGS Q1 Summary ................................................................................................................................................................... 760
Q1 EARNINGS Fewer Companies Beating Estimates and Sales Estimates Than Average .................................................................. 760
Q1 EARNINGS Forward Earnings, Revenue and Margins ...................................................................................................................... 762
Q1 EARNINGS First Decline in Earnings (-0.4%) Since Q3 2012 (-1.06%) ............................................................................................ 763
Q1 EARNINGS First Decline in Revenues (-2.6%) Since Q3 2012 (-11.5%) .......................................................................................... 764
BUYBACKS Widening Credit Spreads Become A Problem ............................................................................................................................... 765
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 765
NEW-BUYBACKS Outperformance of Stocks with Large Buybacks Programs vs S&P 500 .................................................................. 765
NEW-BUYBACKS Gross Leverage for Typical IG/HY Non-Financial Debt-EBITDA............................................................................ 765
NEW-BUYBACKS Equity Market Performance v S&P 500 Uses of Cash ............................................................................................... 766
NEW-BUYBACKS Default Rate v Net Equity Buybacks .......................................................................................................................... 766
NEW-BUYBACKS S&P 500 Buyback Index 200 DMA ......................................................................................................................... 767
NEW-BUYBACKS S&P 500 v Buyback Index Performance .................................................................................................................... 767
NEW-BUYBACKS S&P 500 Annualized Share Buybacks, Dividends and Earnings .............................................................................. 768
NEW-BUYBACKS The real reason for the slowdown has to do with the spread on investment grade debt .......................................... 768
NEW-BUYBACKS Falling Investment Grade Spreads Hurting Buybacks ............................................................................................... 769
NEW-BUYBACKS Quarterly Share Repurchases & No. of Companies Repurchasing Shares Slows ................................................... 769
NEW-BUYBACKS Dollar-Value Buybacks to Free Cash Flow Trailing Twelve Month Basis ............................................................... 769
NEW-BUYBACKS Nearly 25% of Annual Buybacks Occur in November & December .......................................................................... 770
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 772
NEW-BUYBACKS The Fly In The Buyback Ointment- Corporate Leverage Is At Record Levels .......................................................... 772
NEW-BUYBACKS Why The Stock Buyback Party Is Ending .................................................................................................................. 776
NEW-BUYBACKS Goldman Finds Buybacks No Longer Work To Boost Stock Prices: Two Reasons Why ......................................... 778
NEW-BUYBACKS Why Stocks Are Sliding: For The First Time Since 2009 Spending On Buybacks Surpasses Free Cash Flow ....... 781
NEW-BUYBACKS When Buybacks Fail... ................................................................................................................................................ 785
NEW-BUYBACKS "Risky Business": Companies Are Now Funding Share Buybacks By Selling Bonds To Other Companies ............ 786
NEW-BUYBACKS 94% of total S&P in 2015 will go back to shareholders, as dividends and buybacks................................................ 789
NEW-BUYBACKS CEO Pay Boosted from Giving Shareholders Cash .................................................................................................. 790
NEW-BUYBACKS Investor-CEO Feedback Loop .................................................................................................................................... 791
NEW-BUYBACKS Buybacks Account for Substantial Share of Corporate Profits .................................................................................. 792
NEW-BUYBACKS Quarterly History of Buyback Announcments ............................................................................................................ 792
NEW-BUYBACKS Buybacks as a Percentage of Total Cash Use at the Highest Level Since 2007 ...................................................... 793
NEW-BUYBACKS Weekly Buybacks and Rolling 3 Month Sum ............................................................................................................. 793
NEW-BUYBACKS What Sustained Buybacks Look Like To Rating Agencies IBM Example .............................................................. 794
NEW-BUYBACKS Dollar Volume of Share Buybacks and Dividends at Record Levels ......................................................................... 794
NEW-BUYBACKS Buybacks & Dividends Hurdle $900B in 2014 ........................................................................................................... 794
NEW-BUYBACKS The Growth of Stock Buybacks .................................................................................................................................. 795
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Plan
III.
IV.
II.
Release
Date
Service
Coverage
Tipping Points
Tipping Points
Abstraction
Global Macro
Abstraction
US Economy
Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Market Analytics
Fundamental Analysis
Market Analytics
Risk Analysis
Synthesis
Commentary
Thesis
Conclusions
Third Tuesday of
the Month
Focus
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