Population

forecasting

Relation of Quantity of Water

and Population

Water consumption is influenced by the following

factors
Climate
Economic

level
Population density
Degree of industrialization
Cost
Pressure
Quality of the supply

Analysis of the future demand begins by

considering the present use
Consumption is classified according to;

Classes

of users (domestic, commercial,

industrial, public, etc)
Area of the city
Economic level of the users
Season of the year

On per capita consumption, applying the

procedure of dividing total use by the total
population should be applied with care, since
Entire

population may not be served by the municipal

system
There may be large industrial users which will not
change with population
Characteristics and size of the population may be
changing

Population estimation

Since population is always a relevant

factor in estimating future use, it is
necessary to predict what the future
population will be

Arithmetic method
The

assumption is that the rate of growth is

constant

where

is the rate of change of population and

K is a constant

 The

population in the future is estimated as;

= +

where is the population at some time in the

future, is the present population and t is the
period of the projection

Geometric or Uniform Percentage Method

The

hypothesis of geometric or uniform

percentage growth assumes a rate of
increase which is proportional to population

Geometric or Uniform Percentage Method

Thus,

the population at some time is

estimated as;
= +
ln(2 ) ln(1 )
=
2 1

Curvilinear Method
This

technique involves the graphical projection of the

past population growth curve, continuing whatever
trends the historical data indicate
Includes comparison of the projected growth to the
recorded growth of other cities of larger size
Geographical proximity, likeness of economic base,
access to similar transportation systems, and other
factors should be considered for comparison

Fig. Curvilinear method of projecting population growth

Logistic Method
The

logistic curve used in modeling

population growth has an S shape
combining a geometric rate of growth at low
population with a declining growth rate as the
city approaches some limiting population.

 In

the short term, a logistic projection can be

based on

=
1 + +

where is the saturation population of the

community and may be determined
from three successive census population

2 1 2 1 ( + 2 )
2 1 2

2
=
2
1 ( 1 )
=
1 ( )
where n is the time interval between succeeding censuses

Declining Growth Method

Assumes

that the city has some limiting

saturation population, and that its rate of
growth is a function of its population deficit;

= "( )

1 1
" =

where re populations recorded in n

years apart

Future population can be estimated as;

= + ( )(1 " )

Ratio Method
Relies

on the population projections made by

professional demographers
Based on the assumption that the ratio of the
population of the city being studied to that of
the larger group will continue to change in the
future in the same manner that has occurred
in the past

 The

ratio is calculated for a series of

censuses, the trend line is projected into the
future, and the projected ratio is multiplied by
the forecast regional population to obtain the
citys population in the year of interest

Use of good judgement in population

estimation is important
If

the estimate is too low, the system will be

inadequate and redesign, reconstruction and
refinancing will be necessary
Overestimation will result in excess capacity
which must be financed by a smaller
population at a higher unit cost

Selection of an appropriate technique requires

testing all methods against recorded growth and
eliminate those which are not applicable
Growth of a community
with

limited land area for future expansion may be

modeled by the declining growth or logistic technique
with large resources of land, power, and water and
good transportation may be predicted by the
geometric or uniform percentage growth

Example:

Given the population data as follows;

Population in 2000 = 76.5million
2010 = 92.3milliom

Estimate the population in 2020, 2030, 2040

using the arithmetic, geometric, logistic and
declining growth methods