Parametric and non-parametric methods for the study of the variability of wave

directions: application to the Atlantic Uruguayan coasts.

Sebastin Solari1,2, ssolari@ugr.es , ssolari@fing.edu.uy
1
Miguel A. Losada , mlosada@ugr.es
1

CEAMA-Universidad de Granada, Av. del Mediterrneo s/n (Edif. CEAMA), 18006, Granada, Spain
Tel.: (+34) 958241000 ext.:31200 Fax: (+34) 958132479
2
CMCISur-Universidad de la Repblica, Martnez Trueba 1300, 11100 Montevideo, Uruguay
INTRODUCTION
To determine the direction and rate of littoral sediment
transport, and to analyze the evolution of the coast,
the characterization of the seasonal and inter-annual
variability in the directional distribution of waves is
needed. Moreover, safety and the probability of
stoppage of maritime structures under wave action
depend on the direction and magnitude of wave
action. This variability can be a significant source of
uncertainty, affecting decision making in coastal
management and the level of operationality of port
and its installations.
Some author used non parametric approximations for
analyzing the variability of wave directions. In this
work we: (1) present a parametric non-stationary
probability distribution model for wave directions that
may be used in the simulation of new time series (see
e.g. Solari and Losada 2011), (2) identify and quantify
the effect of several climatic indices on the seasonal
and inter-annual variability of the distribution of wave
directions, and include their effect on the parameters
of the model, and (3) apply the model to a series of
wave directions in the Uruguayan coast.
METHODOLOGY
The study is methodologically consistent with that
proposed by Izaguirre et al. (2011), and allows us to
quantify the effect of climate indexes on the
parameters of the distribution function. The analysis
uses a mixed distribution function composed of N
Wrapped Normal distributions (WN):
N

f ( ) iWN ( | i , pi )

[1]

APPLICATION
We use hindcast mean wave directions (ERA-interim
program of the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)) taken at coordinates
36oS 52oW. Also, four climatic indices are used: the
Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Tropical South Atlantic
Index (TSA), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and El
Nio 3.4 (NINO34). The time series of climate indices
correspond to monthly averages obtained from NOAA
Earth System Research Laboratory.
RESULTS
A first analysis shows that the distribution of the mean
wave directions at the study site is bimodal, showing
significant seasonal and inter-annual variations.
For the parametric model [1] three WN distributions
were used (N=3). Second order Fourier series (n=2)
was used for the parameters, and the four climatic
indices were included. After estimating the parameter
of the distribution it was observed that the model
satisfactorily fits the non-stationary PDF of the data
(see Figure 1). Moreover, climatic indices were found
to have statistically significant impact on the nonstationary distribution.
N

NW

NW

SW

SW

SE

SE

i 1

0 i 1 . The WN distribution

function, developed for circular variables, has the

following expression (Fisher 1993):

1
p2
WN ( | , p )
[2]
1 2 cos p
2
p 1

with 0 2 0 1 , where is the mean

direction and is the mean resultant length that
quantifies the dispersion of the distribution.

NE

NE

where

1 and

To model the seasonal and inter-annual variations of

the distribution, the parameters i , i and i are
expressed as a Fourier series with a main period of
one year plus a linear combination of climatic indices.

N
0

0.5
Time [y ears]

0.5
Time [y ears]

Figure 1 Non-stationary annual PDF for the period 1989-2009. Left:

empirical. Right: parametric model [1] with N=3 and n=2, including
indices AAO, TSA, SOI y NINO34.

REFERENCES

Fisher, N.I., 1993 Statistical analysis of circular data.

Cambridge University Press.
Izaguirre,C., Mndez,F.J., Menndez,M., Losada,I.J. 2011
Global extreme wave height variability based on satellite
data, Geophys. Res. Lett. 38.
Solari, S., Losada, M.A., 2011 Non-stationary wave height
climate modelling and simulation, J. Geophys. Res. Vol.
116, C09032, doi:10.1029/2011JC007101.