Professional Documents
Culture Documents
29.2%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
20.0%
14.6%
15.0%
10.5%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Revenues
EBITDA
PBT
APAT
Stock Recommendation
Buy
CMP (`)
114
165
Upside (%)
47%
Earlier Call
Buy
52 Week H / L `
233/85
BSE 30
28112
Key Data
No. of Shares, Mn.
196.9
Mcap, ` Bn
22.4
Mcap,USD Bn @ `63
0.4
1.8
21.7
FII
29.2
DII
7.7
41.4
Performance
1M
3M
6M
12 M
Stock Return %
14.6
-21.6
-48.0
-28.2
Relative Return %
12.7
-24.2
-44.4
-37.0
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%
NIFTY
Shyamal Dhruve
shyamal.dhruve@sunidhi.com
Sunidhi Research |
Phone: +91-022-61131366
Jul-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
KPIT Technologies
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Financials
Aug-14
Result update
IT services
Sector Outlook - Neutral
Revenues
EPS
P/E
EV/EBIDTA
ROE
FY13
` mn
22,386
` mn
3,650
` mn
2,095
`
11.3
x
10.1
x
5.8
%
19.4
FY14
26,940
4,233
2,391
13.7
8.3
5.3
18.7
FY15
29,899
3,271
2,385
12.7
9.0
6.7
18.4
FY16E
31,677
3,496
2,256
12.0
9.5
6.4
15.5
FY17E
36,527
4,710
3,132
16.6
6.8
4.4
17.91
KPIT Technologies
1Q16
4Q15
1Q15
QoQ
YoY Comments
Q1FY16 revenue at US$118.4mn was
down 3.3% QoQ. Cummins declined 8.2%
9.9
QoQ, while Top 10 Clients registered degrowth of 1.8%.
13.1
(12.8)
Operating margin improved 510bps QoQ
(249)bps mainly on account of absence of one-off
cost provision.
11.9
0.9
Revenues
7,583
7,630
6,897
(0.6)
- Operating costs
EBITDA
6,862
721
7,296
334
6,070
827
(5.9)
115.6
9.5
4.4
12.0
512bps
- Interest expense
- Depreciation
47
164
140
225
42
162
(66.2)
(27.3)
106
177
108
(40.0)
1.6
PBT
- Taxes
Effective tax rate (%)
PAT
- Minority interests
Consolidated PAT
Net margin (%)
EPS (`)
616
172
27.9
444
444
5.9
2.4
146
(357)
(244.9)
503
503
6.6
2.7
730
222
30.4
508
508
7.4
2.7
322.1
NA
NA
(11.7)
NA
(11.7)
(74)bps
(11.8)
(15.7)
(22.8)
(256)bps
(12.6)
NA
(12.6)
(151)bps
(13.5)
35
120
30
25
100
20
80
15
60
10
5
40
Revenue ($ mln)
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
-10
3Q12
2Q12
-5
1Q12
20
Sunidhi Research |
KPIT Technologies
Strong growth in US despite decline in Cummins account:
North America, which generates ~70% of revenues for KPIT, reported strong growth of 4.5%
QoQ despite sluggishness in Cummins account. Cummins declined 8.2% QoQ, third
consecutive decline for it. Management indicated Cummins account to have bottomed-out
and slight uptick in FY16. Europe declined 4.0% QoQ while APAC declined 29.5% QoQ mainly
due to decline in ITS revenue. Amongst industry segments, Automotive & Transportation
declined 13.0% QoQ while manufacturing grew 3.9% QoQ.
Margin performance better than estimates:
KPIT reported EBITDA margin increase of 510bps QoQ at 9.5%. The improvement in margin
was on account of employee pyramid rationalization and higher utilization. For Q2, it will have
~200bps headwinds to margins which will be partially off-set by more freshers hiring, higher
utilization and other operational efficiencies.
Margin Profile
16.1
14.2
12.0
9.6
13.9
13.3
11.1
10.1
9.5
7.3
4.4
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
1.4
4Q14
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Q1FY14
1,176
6,553
1,107
4,809
7,771
545
140
8,456
94.2
73.4
Q2FY14
1,243
6,708
1,148
4,888
8,122
548
146
8,816
92.4
72.9
Q3FY14
1,274
6,987
1,123
4,985
8,430
554
152
9,136
88.1
71.3
Q4FY14
1,366
7,139
1,231
5,064
8,583
558
155
9,296
90.1
70.9
Q1FY15
1,423
7,224
1,293
5,068
8,757
568
165
9,490
90.8
70.2
Q2FY15
1,456
7,518
1,327
5,383
9,191
572
170
9,933
91.1
71.6
Q3FY15
1,494
7,868
1,348
5,519
9,541
575
175
10,291
90.2
70.2
Q4FY15
1,534
8,317
1,316
5,456
10,213
586
181
10,980
85.8
65.6
Q1FY16
1,564
8,514
1,362
5,654
10,062
585
192
10,839
87.1
66.4
Sunidhi Research |
KPIT Technologies
Client addition moderate:
During the quarter, KPIT added 2 new clients, taking the total active client base to 210.
Client details
Client concentration
Clients Added
Total active clients
Customers with a run rate of $1mn+
Top customer - Cummins (%)
Top 5 Clients (%)
Top 10 Clients (%)
Q1FY14
6
189
78
16.8
38.6
47.3
Q2FY14
3
192
78
16.5
38.0
46.3
Q3FY14
3
195
78
17.9
38.2
47.6
Q4FY14
3
198
80
15.5
35.7
45.8
Q1FY15
3
201
83
15.9
34.4
45.1
Q2FY15
2
203
84
14.9
32.1
42.8
Q3FY15
3
206
87
14.6
28.6
39.4
Q4FY15
2
208
90
14.9
30.1
41.6
Q1FY16
2
210
87
14.2
30.7
42.2
KPIT Technologies
Geographical wise Performance
Geographical mix (%)
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q1FY16
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
US
72.6
69.8
69.1
66.5
67.3
64.5
69.7
4.5
3.5
Europe
15.4
14.5
15.8
13.7
15.5
16.9
16.7
(4.0)
8.7
RoW
12.0
15.8
15.1
19.8
17.2
18.6
13.6
(29.5)
(7.4)
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
(3.3)
2.7dd
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q1FY16
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
36.4
38.9
15.1
9.7
100.0
33.1
39.2
18.0
9.7
100.0
32.7
40.9
17.8
8.6
100.0
37.1
31.6
21.7
9.6
100.0
36.0
32.8
21.8
9.5
100.0
41.3
33.3
17.8
7.7
100.0
37.1
35.8
18.7
8.4
100.0
(13.0)
3.9
1.7
6.3
(3.3)
16.7
(10.3)
8.0
0.3
2.7
Q3FY14
39.2
25.1
0.0
23.8
11.9
100.0
Q4FY14
39.2
25.9
0.0
23.7
11.2
100.0
Q1FY15
40.4
21.9
4.4
22.6
10.7
100.0
Q2FY15
38.0
30.0
0.0
22.6
9.4
100.0
Q3FY15
38.7
29.1
0.0
23.3
8.9
100.0
Q4FY15 Q1FY16
38.7
39.0
24.7
26.0
10.5
4.2
17.4
21.0
8.8
9.8
100.0
100.0
QoQ (%)
(2.5)
1.8
(60.9)
17.0
7.4
(3.3)
YoY (%)
(0.9)
21.8
(2.4)
(4.5)
(5.6)
2.7
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q1FY16
54.2
45.8
100.0
54.6
45.4
100.0
52.8
47.2
100.0
54.3
45.7
100.0
57.2
41.6
1.3
100.0
51.1
43.7
5.3
100.0
53.5
43.2
3.3
100.0
52.4
42.6
5.0
100.0
55.3
437
1.0
100.0
76.9
23.2
100.0
76.4
23.6
100.0
75.6
24.4
100.0
72.9
27.1
100.0
71.6
27.1
1.3
100.0
65.1
29.6
5.3
100.0
62.9
33.8
3.3
100.0
63.7
31.3
5.0
100.0
72.9
26.2
1.0
100.0
KPIT Technologies
Change in Estimates
FY16E
New
501
31,677
11.0
12.0
63.3
Old
543
33,936
10.3
11.2
62.5
%Chg
(7.8)
(6.7)
69bps
7.0
--
Old
615
38,432
11.9
15.4
62.5
FY17E
New
580
36,527
12.8
16.6
63.0
%Chg
(5.7)
(5.0)
95bps
8.0
--
1 Year Forward PE
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Price
5X
9X
13 X
17 X
Apr/15
Oct/14
Apr/14
Oct/13
Apr/13
Oct/12
Apr/12
Oct/11
Apr/11
Oct/10
Apr/10
Oct/09
Apr/09
Oct/08
Apr/08
Oct/07
Apr/07
Oct/06
Apr/06
Oct/05
Apr/05
21 X
Peer Comparison
Company
CMP
P/E (x)
RoAE (%)
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
MindTree
1269
Accumulate
1395
9.9
64.1
70.7
87.1
19.8
17.9
14.6
16.4
17.8
16.0
29.4
27.0
27.6
KPIT Tech
113
Buy
165
45.5
12.7
12.0
16.6
9.0
9.5
6.8
10.0
2.4
15.8
18.4
15.5
17.9
Hexaware
274
Sell
230
-16.1
10.7
13.4
15.8
25.7
20.5
17.4
8.9
14.8
16.5
25.7
29.5
31.2
NIIT Tech
480
Hold
465
-3.1
18.7
42.5
46.3
25.6
11.3
10.4
1.1
9.1
10.2
8.5
17.8
17.2
Sunidhi Research |
KPIT Technologies
Valuations Summary
Year End-March
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Year End-March
Equity Share Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Total Shareholders Fund
Minority Interest
Non- current liabilities
Long Term Borrowings
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Other LT Liabilities & Prov
Current Liabilities
Short Term Borrowings
Trade Payables
Other Cur Liabilities & Prov
Total Liabilities
Assets
Non- Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Goodwill
Non-Current Investments
Long-Term Loans & Adv
Other Non-Current Assets
Current Assets
Current Investments
Trade Receivables
Inventories
Cash & Bank Balances
Short-Term Loans & Adv
Other Current Assets
Total Assets
11.3
13.9
58.1
0.9
9.4
13.7
15.8
68.7
1.1
10.0
12.7
17.2
68.9
1.1
10.1
12.0
16.5
83.5
1.1
10.7
16.6
22.1
98.7
1.3
9.1
10.1
2.0
5.8
0.8
8.3
1.6
5.3
1.0
9.0
1.6
6.7
1.0
9.5
1.4
6.4
1.0
6.8
1.1
4.4
1.1
16.3
9.4
19.4
21.8
15.7
8.9
18.7
21.1
10.9
8.0
18.4
15.9
11.0
7.1
15.5
17.1
12.9
8.6
17.9
20.4
0.1
(0.2)
0.4
19.6
1.8
0.1
(0.2)
0.3
12.6
1.7
0.1
(0.2)
0.4
10.2
1.7
0.0
(0.2)
0.0
18.2
1.7
0.0
(0.3)
0.0
27.6
1.9
49.2
67.4
52.4
20.3
16.0
19.1
11.0
(22.7)
(0.3)
5.9
6.9
(5.4)
15.3
34.7
38.8
11
12
13
12
15
Debtors Days
73
77
84
89
91
Year End-March
Payable days
29
18
16
16
15
PBT
Depreciation
FY13
22,386
18,736
3,650
(170)
466
3,014
154
2,860
766
2,095
(86)
5
2,014
FY14
26,940
22,708
4,233
(74)
540
3,619
287
3,332
941
2,391
2,391
FY15
29,899
26,628
3,271
352
851
2,771
272
2,500
115
2,385
2,385
FY16E
31,677
18,307
3,496
433
722
3,208
177
3,031
775
2,256
2,256
FY17E
36,527
27,065
4,710
508
885
4,333
157
4,176
1,044
3,132
3,132
Inventory Days
Sunidhi Research |
FY13
386
9,977
10,362
270
1,533
1,459
(69)
143
5,597
1,753
1,199
2,645
17,763
FY14
371
12,380
12,751
1,244
1,301
(289)
233
6,949
3,089
1,021
2,839
20,945
FY15
376
12,585
12,961
1,271
1,368
(520)
423
7,948
3,089
1,308
3,551
22,181
FY16E
376
14,719
15,095
1,127
623
504
8,182
3,089
1,185
3,908
24,405
FY17E
376
17,564
17,941
790
223
572
8,868
3,089
1,344
4,434
27,603
7,721
2,005
4,423
118
1,138
37
10,042
2,036
4,673
1,921
593
818
17,763
9,048
2,161
5,994
118
672
103
11,897
1,741
6,743
34
1,908
744
727
20,945
8,925
2,328
5,088
118
1,266
125
13,256
698
6,979
229
3,638
681
1,032
22,181
10,459
2,572
5,293
118
2,476
13,946
522
8,427
436
3,130
1,431
24,405
10,759
2,487
5,293
118
2,861
16,845
522
9,737
503
4,430
1,653
27,603
FY13
2,860
FY14
3,332
FY15
2,500
FY16E
3,031
FY17E
4,176
466
540
850
722
885
154
287
272
177
157
(86)
3,394
1,240
2,154
766
1,388
618
(801)
(1,572)
(2,991)
1,074
30
(154)
(188)
4,158
1,657
2,501
941
1,560
696
(1,571)
295
(1,971)
1,177
(15)
(287)
(239)
3,623
100
3,523
115
3,408
1019
906
1,044
931
67
5
(272)
(242)
3,929
2,143
1,787
775
1,011
966
(206)
176
(995)
(744)
0
(177)
(242)
5,218
1,231
3,987
1,044
2,943
800
(800)
(400)
(157)
(286)
1,294
2,051
448
1,473
1,921
(239)
398
(13)
1,921
1,908
(1,846)
(2,610)
1,730
1,908
3,638
640
(523)
(507)
3,638
3,130
(0)
(843)
1,300
3,130
4,430
Interest Exp
Others
CF before W.cap
Inc/dec in W.cap
Op CF after W.cap
Less Taxes
Net CF From Operations
Inc/(dec) in F.A + CWIP
(Inc)/Dec in Goodwill
(Pur)/sale of Investments
CF from Invst Activities
Loan Raised/(repaid)
Equity Raised
Interest Payment
Dividend
Others
CF from Fin Activities
Net inc /(dec) in cash
Op. bal of cash
Cl. balance of cash
KPIT Technologies
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Sunidhi Research |
KPIT Technologies
ACCUMULATE
HOLD
REDUCE
SELL
Apart from Absolute returns our rating for a stock would also include subjective factors like macro environment, outlook of the industry
in which the company is operating, growth expectations from the company vis a vis its peers, scope for P/E re-rating/de-rating for the
broader market and the company in specific.
Sunidhi Research |