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CONFIDENTIAL

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

NOVEMBER 2015

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Introduction
Lazards Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis (LCOS) addresses the following topics:
Definition of a cost-oriented approach to energy storage technologies and applications

Description of selected energy storage technologies


Description of ten defined use cases for energy storage
Comparative levelized cost of storage for a number of use case and technology combinations
Decomposition of the levelized cost of storage for various use case and technology combinations by total capital cost,

operations and maintenance expense, charging cost and tax, as applicable


Comparison and analysis of capital costs for various use case and technology combinations, including in respect of

projected/expected capital cost declines


Summary assumptions for the various use case and technology combinations examined
Energy storage systems are be rated in terms of both instantaneous power capacity and potential energy output (or usable energy). The instantaneous
power capacity of an energy storage system is defined as the maximum output of the invertor (in MW, kW, etc.) under specific operational and physical
conditions. The potential energy output of an energy storage system is defined as the maximum amount of energy (in MWh, kWh, etc.) the system can
store at one point in time. Both capital cost divided by instantaneous power capacity and capital cost divided by potential energy output are common
Industry conventions for cost quoting. This study describes capital costs in terms of potential energy output to capture the duration of the relevant
energy storage system, as well as its capacity.
Throughout this study, use cases require fixed potential energy output values. Due to physical and operating conditions, some energy storage systems
may need to be oversized on a usable energy basis to achieve these values. This oversizing results in depth of discharge over a single cycle that is less
than 100% (i.e., some technologies must maintain a constant charge).
Other factors not covered in this report would also have a potentially significant effect on the results presented herein, but have not been examined in the
scope of this current analysis. The analysis also does not address potential social and environmental externalities, including, for example, the long-term
residual and societal consequences of various conventional generation technologies (for which energy storage is a partial substitute) that are difficult to
measure (e.g., nuclear waste disposal, environmental impacts, etc.).
While energy storage is a beneficiary of and sensitive to various tax subsidies, this report presents the LCOS on an unsubsidized basis to isolate and
compare the technological and operational components of energy storage systems and use cases, as well as to present results that are applicable to a
global energy storage market.
The inputs contained in the LCOS were developed by Lazard in consultation and partnership with Enovation Partners, a leading consultant to the Power
& Energy Industry.

Note: This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice.
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

What is Lazards Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis?


Lazards Levelized Cost of Storage study analyzes the levelized costs associated with the leading energy storage technologies
given a single assumed capital structure and cost of capital, and appropriate operational and cost assumptions derived from a
robust survey of Industry participants
The LCOS does not purport to measure the value associated with energy storage to Industry participants, as such value is

necessarily situation-, market- and owner-dependent and belies this cost-oriented and levelized analysis
WHAT THE LCOS DOES

WHAT THE LCOS DOES NOT DO

Defines operational parameters associated with systems


designed for each of the most prevalent use cases of storage

Identify the full range of use cases for energy storage,


including stacked use cases (i.e., those in which multiple
value streams are obtainable from a single storage installation)

Aggregates cost and operational survey data from original


equipment manufacturers and energy storage developers,
after validation from additional Industry participants/energy
storage users
Identifies an illustrative base case conventional alternative
to each use case for energy storage, while acknowledging that
in some use cases there is no conventional alternative (or such
comparison may be only partially apt)
Generates estimates of the installed cost over the indicated
project life required to achieve certain levelized returns for
various technologies, designed for a series of identified use
cases
Provides an apples-to-apples basis of comparison among
various technologies within use cases
Identifies a potential framework for evaluating energy storage
against certain base case conventional alternatives within
use cases
Aggregates robust survey data to define range of
future/expected capital cost decreases by technology

Authoritatively establish or predict market clearing prices for


energy storage projects/products
Propose that energy storage technologies be compared solely
against a single conventional alternative
Analyze the value of storage in any particular market
context or to specific individuals/entities
Purport to provide an apples-to-apples comparison to
conventional or renewable electric generation
Establish an authoritative framework for resource planning or
decision-making

2
Copyright 2015 Lazard.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

The Energy Storage Value PropositionA Cost Approach


Understanding the economics of energy storage is challenging due to the highly tailored nature of potential value streams
associated with an energy storage installation. Rather than focusing on the value available to energy storage installations, this
study analyzes the levelized cost of energy storage technologies operationalized across a variety of use cases; the levelized cost
of storage may then be compared to the more specific value streams available to particular installations
ENERGY STORAGE VALUE PROPOSITION

SELECTED OBSERVATIONS
While an energy storage system may be optimized for a

System Cost &


Revenue

particular use case requiring specified operating parameters


(e.g., power rating, duration, etc.), other sources of revenue
may also be available for a given system

Value
Positive

For example, a single energy storage system could

theoretically be designed to capture value through both


providing frequency regulation for a wholesale market
and enabling deferral of an investment in a substation
upgrade
Energy storage systems are sized and developed to solve for

one or more($113.70)
specific revenue streams, as the operating
requirements of one use case may preclude
efficient/economic operations in another use case for the
same system (e.g., frequency regulation vs. PV integration)

Value
Negative

The total of all potential value streams available for a given

system thus defines the maximum, economically viable cost


for that system
LCOS

Value
Stream
1

Value
Stream
2

(a)
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

Value
Stream
3

Value
Stream
4

Total Value(a)

Importantly, incremental sources of revenue may only

become available as costs (or elements of levelized cost)


decrease below a certain value

Presented here as the simple sum of all available value streams. Due to operational and other factors, such stacked value would likely differ from the simple sum of all value
streams in practice.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Overview of Selected Energy Storage Technologies

There are a wide variety of energy storage technologies currently available and in development; some technologies are better
suited to particular use cases or other operational requirements (e.g., geological considerations for compressed air, heat
considerations for lithium-ion and sodium, etc.) than competing technologies

COMPRESSED AIR

DESCRIPTION
Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) uses electricity to compress air into confined spaces (e.g., underground mines, salt caverns,
etc.) where the pressurized air is stored

EXPECTED
USEFUL LIFE(a)
15 20 years

When required, this pressurized air is released to drive the compressor of a natural gas turbine
Flow batteries contain two electrolyte solutions in two separate tanks, circulated through two independent loops; when connected to a

FLOW BATTERY

load, the migration of electrons from the negative to positive electrolyte solution creates a current
The sub-categories of flow batteries are defined by the chemical composition of the electrolyte solution; the most prevalent of such

15 20 years

solutions are vanadium redox and zinc-bromine


Flywheels are mechanical devices that spin at high speeds, storing electricity as rotational energy, which is released by decelerating the

FLYWHEEL

flywheels rotor, releasing quick bursts of energy (i.e., high power and short duration)
Flywheels typically have a low energy density and high power ratingsthey release large amounts of power over a short period (i.e.,

20+ years

minutes); typically, maintenance is minimal and lifespans are greater than most battery technologies
Lead-acid batteries were invented in the 19th century and are the oldest and most common batteries; they are low-cost and adaptable to

LEAD-ACID

numerous uses (e.g., electric vehicles, off-grid power systems, uninterruptible power supplies, etc.)
Advanced lead-acid battery technology combines standard lead-acid battery technology with ultra-capacitors; these technologies

5 15 years

increase efficiency and lifetimes and improve partial state-of-charge operability(b)


Lithium-ion batteries are relatively established and have historically been used in the electronics and advanced transportation industries

LITHIUM-ION

Lithium-ion batteries are increasingly replacing lead-acid batteries in many applications; they have relatively high energy density, low

5 15 years

self-discharge and high charging efficiency


PUMPED HYDRO
SODIUM

Pumped hydro storage makes use of two vertically separated water reservoirs, using low cost electricity to pump water from the lower

to the higher reservoir and running as a conventional hydro power plant during high electricity cost periods
Sodium batteries are classified as high temperature and liquid-electrolyte-flow batteries, which have high power and energy density

relative to alternatives (e.g., lead-acid); they are maintained at a temperature of 300 350C

20+ years
5 15 years

Zinc batteries cover a wide range of possible technology variations, including metal-air derivatives

ZINC

Zinc battery systems are non-toxic, non-combustible and potentially low-cost due to the abundance of the primary metal; however,

5 15 years

this technology remains unproven in widespread commercial deployment


Source:

4
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

(a)
(b)

Lazard estimates.
Denotes battery technology.
Indicates general ranges of useful economic life for a given family of technology. Useful life will vary in practice depending on sub-technology, intensity of use/cycling, engineering factors, etc.
Advanced lead-acid is an emerging technology with wider potential applications and greater cost than traditional lead-acid batteries.
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LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Overview of Selected Energy Storage Technologies (contd)


There are a wide variety of energy storage technologies currently available and in development; some technologies are better
suited to particular use cases or other operational requirements (e.g., geological considerations for compressed air, heat
considerations for lithium-ion and sodium, etc.) than competing technologies
SELECTED COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES

Requires suitable geology

Low cost, flexible sizing, relatively large-scale

Relatively difficult to modularize for smaller installations

COMPRESSED
Mature technology and well-developed design
AIR

Low energy density

Leverages existing gas turbine technologies

FLOW
BATTERY

FLYWHEEL

LEAD-ACID

LITHIUMION

Reduced efficiency due to rapid charge/discharge

High power density, scalability and depth of discharge capability

Relatively low energy capacity

Compact design with integrated AC motor

High heat generation

Mature technology with established recycling infrastructure

Poor ability to operate in a partially charged state

Advanced lead-acid technologies leverage existing technologies

Relatively poor depth of discharge and short lifespan

Multiple chemistries available (partly as a result of robust deployment


in electric vehicles)

Remains relatively high cost

High power capacity solution

ZINC

Relatively high balance of system costs

No degradation in energy storage capacity

Mature technology (commercially available; leverages existing


hydropower technology)

SODIUM

Exposure to natural gas price changes

Power and energy profiles highly and independently scalable

Efficient power and energy density

PUMPED
HYDRO

SELECTED COMPARATIVE DISADVANTAGES

Requires advanced manufacturing capabilities to achieve high performance

Relatively low energy density


Limited available sites (i.e., water availability required)

Relatively mature technology (commercially available)

Although mature, inherently higher costs

High energy capacity; long duration

Operates at high temperature, resulting in potential flammability issues

Currently quoted as low cost

Currently unproven commercially

Source:

DOE Energy Storage Database; Lazard estimates.


Denotes battery technology.

Copyright 2015 Lazard.


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LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Selected Energy Storage Use CasesIn Front of the Meter


Unlike technologies related to conventional generation, which have a single use case (i.e., the creation of electricity), energy storage
technologies have a variety of use cases in a modern electric system, comprising both in front of the meter (or power grid-oriented) and
behind the meter (or distributed) applications; each use case identified below solves for a particular grid or user need, which is often
most easily achieved with a subset of available energy storage technologies
Importantly, in practice, a single energy storage system may provide services across multiple use cases, although the feasibility of
multiple application energy storage units may be limited by operational and design factors (e.g., sizing for a particular use case could
preclude participation in another)
SELECTE D RELEVA NT
TECHNOLOG IE S

DESCRIP TIO N

TRANSMISSION
SYSTEM

Large-scale energy storage system to improve Lead-Acid, Sodium, Flow


transmission grid performance and assist in the
Battery, Lithium-Ion, Zinc,
integration of large-scale renewable generation
Pumped Hydro, CAES

Transmission line upgrade


Gas turbine

PEAKER
REPLACEMENT

Large-scale energy storage system designed to


replace peaking gas turbine facilities

Gas turbine
Diesel reciprocating engine

FREQUENCY
REGULATION

DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES

PV INTEGRATION

SELECTE D
CONVENTIO N A L
ALTERN A T I VE S ( a )

(a)

Lead-Acid, Sodium, Zinc,


Lithium-Ion, Flow Battery

Energy storage system designed to balance


Flywheel, Lithium
power to maintain frequency within a specified
tolerance bound (i.e., ancillary service)

Gas turbine

Energy storage system placed at substations to


provide flexible peaking capacity and mitigate
stability problems

Distribution system upgrade


Gas turbine

Lead-Acid, Sodium, Zinc,


Lithium-Ion, Flow Battery

Energy storage system designed to reduce


Lead-Acid, Sodium, Zinc,
potential integration challenges or improve the
Lithium-Ion, Flow Battery
value of solar generation

Gas turbine
Diesel reciprocating engine
Alteration of solar
production profile

Denotes an illustrative set of base case conventional alternatives for a given use case. Actual projects may displace a number of conventional alternatives, in certain scenarios.

Copyright 2015 Lazard.


No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Selected Energy Storage Use CasesBehind the Meter


Unlike technologies related to conventional generation, which have a single use case (i.e., the creation of electricity), energy storage
technologies have a variety of use cases in a modern electric system, comprising both in front of the meter (or power grid-oriented) and
behind the meter (or distributed) applications; each of the use cases identified below solves for a particular grid or user need, which is
often most easily achieved with a subset of available energy storage technologies
Importantly, in practice, a single energy storage system may provide services across multiple use cases, although the feasibility of
multiple application energy storage units may be limited by operational and design factors (e.g., sizing for a particular use case could
preclude participation in another)
DESCRIP TIO N

Energy storage system used to enhance the stability and Lead-Acid, Sodium, Zinc,
efficiency of a microgrid electricity system with specific
Lithium-Ion, Flow Battery
local goals, such as reliability, diversification of energy
sources and/or cost reduction, especially in the context
of ramp control/mitigation (i.e., relatively short
discharge profile)

Diesel reciprocating engine


Gas turbine
Load profile alteration

Energy storage system used to support the stability and


efficiency of an isolated electricity system with specific
local goals, such as reliability, diversification of energy
sources and/or cost reduction, especially in the context
of renewables integration (i.e., long discharge profile)

Lead-Acid, Sodium, Zinc,


Lithium-Ion, Flow Battery

Diesel reciprocating engine


Gas turbine
Load profile alteration

COMMERCIAL &
INDUSTRIAL

Energy storage system primarily designed to provide


peak shaving and demand charge reduction for
commercial or industrial applications

Lead-Acid, Sodium, Zinc,


Lithium-Ion, Flow Battery

COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE

Energy storage system designed to provide demand


charge reductions on a smaller scale and at a lower
duration than commercial and industrial use cases

Lead-Acid, Zinc, LithiumIon, Flow Battery

Diesel reciprocating engine


Utility service upgrade
Load profile alteration

RESIDENTIAL

Energy storage system for residential home use


designed to provide backup power and self-generation
augmentation

Lead-Acid, Lithium-Ion,
Flow Battery

Load profile alteration


Backup generator

MICROGRID

ISLAND GRID

SELECTE D
CONVENTIO N A L
ALTERN A T I VE S ( a )

SELECTE D RELEVA NT
TECHNOLOG IE S

(a)

Diesel reciprocating engine


Gas turbine
Utility service upgrade
Load profile alteration

Denotes an illustrative set of base case conventional alternatives for a given use case. Actual projects may displace a number of conventional alternatives, in certain scenarios.

Copyright 2015 Lazard.


No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Energy Storage Use CasesOperational Parameters


For comparison purposes, this study assumes and quantitatively operationalizes ten use cases for energy storage; while there
may be alternative or combined/stacked use cases available to energy storage systems, the ten use cases below represent
prevalent current and contemplated energy storage applications and are derived from Industry survey data
PROJECT
LIFE (YEARS)

MW(a)

MWh OF
CAPACITY(b)

100% DOD
CYCLES/
DAY(c)

DAYS /
YEAR(d)

ANNUAL
MWh

PROJECT
MWh

TRANSMISSION SYSTEM

20

100

800

300

240,000

4,800,000

PEAKER
REPLACEMENT

20

25

100

350

35,000

700,000

FREQUENCY
REGULATION

20

10

4.8

350

8,400

168,000

DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES

20

16

300

4,800

96,000

PV
INTEGRATION

20

1.25

350

1,750

35,000

MICROGRID

20

350

1,400

28,000

ISLAND
GRID

20

350

2,100

42,000

COMMERCIAL &
INDUSTRIAL

10

350

1,400

14,000

COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE

10

0.1

0.2

250

50

500

RESIDENTIAL

10

0.005

0.01

300

30

= Usable Energy(e)
(a)
(b)
(c)

8
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

(d)
(e)

Indicates power rating of system (i.e., system size).


Indicates total battery energy content on a single, 100% charge, or usable energy. Usable energy divided by power rating (in MW) reflects hourly duration of system.
DOD denotes depth of battery discharge (i.e., the percent of the batterys energy content that is discharged). Depth of discharge of 100% indicates that a fully charged battery discharges all of its
energy. For example, a battery that cycles 48 times per day with a 10% depth of discharge would be rated at 4.8 100% DOD Cycles per Day.
Indicates number of days of system operation per calendar year.
Usable energy indicates energy stored and able to be dispatched from system.
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LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Storage Comparison

Certain in front of the meter technology and use case combinations are cost-competitive with their dominant or base case
conventional alternatives under some scenarios, even without the benefit of subsidies or additional, non-optimized streams of
revenue; such observation does not take into account potential social or environmental externalities associated with energy
storage (e.g., environmental benefits associated with avoided gas peaker investment, etc.)
Compressed Air

TRANSMISSION
SYSTEM

$192

Flow Battery

Lead-Acid

Lithium-Ion

Pumped Hydro

$290

$892
$461

$347
$188

$396

$230

Flow Battery
PEAKER
REPLACEMENT

Lead-Acid

$927
$419

$221

$347

$211

Lithium-Ion
Sodium

Zinc

Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc

$275

(a)

Copyright 2015 Lazard.

$1,692

$400

$789

$426
$285

$1,129
$426

$373

$950

$402

$1,068

$355

$686

$379

$245

$957
$345

$200
$165 $218 Gas

$923
$516

$0
Source:
Note:

$989

$288

Flow Battery
PV INTEGRATION

$948

$276

Lead-Acid

$658

$365

Flywheel

Lead-Acid

$1,247

$321

Sodium

Flow Battery
DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES

$376

Lithium-Ion

Lithium-Ion

$1,079

$248

Zinc
FREQUENCY
REGULATION

$739

$274

Sodium
Zinc

$1,429

$400
Peaker(a)

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

Levelized Cost ($/MWh)

Lazard estimates.
Here and throughout this presentation, unless otherwise indicated, analysis assumes 20% debt at 8% interest rate and 80% equity at 12% cost for all technologies and use cases. Assumes seven year
MACRS depreciation unless otherwise noted. Analysis does not reflect impact of evolving regulations/rules promulgated pursuant to the EPAs Clean Power Plan.
Indicates battery technology.
Indicates illustrative conventional alternative to energy storage. Not intended to reflect the sole conventional alternative (or source of value from replacing such alternatives). The lowest cost
conventional alternative for a particular use case may not be the lowest cost conventional alternative for another use case.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Storage Comparison (contd)


While no behind the meter technology and use case combination is strictly in the money from a cost perspective as compared to an
illustrative conventional alternative, a number of combinations are within striking distance and, when paired with certain streams of
value, may currently be economic for certain system owners in some scenarios; such observation does not take into account the social and
environmental externalities associated with energy storage (e.g., the social costs of demand charge shaving, etc.)

MICROGRID

Flow Battery

$429

Lead-Acid

$433

Lithium-Ion
Sodium

$1,046
$946

$369

$562

$411

Zinc

$835

$319

$416

Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
ISLAND

Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc
Flow

$1,533

$581

$870
$663

$1,259

$523

$677

$349

$1,083

$529

Lithium-Ion
Sodium

$1,231
$700

Battery

Lead-Acid
COMMERCIAL &
INDUSTRIAL

$593

$1,511

$351

$838
$444

Zinc

$310

$1,092
$452

Flow Battery
COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE

Lead-Acid

Lithium-Ion

Zinc

$974
$928

RESIDENTIAL

Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion

Copyright 2015 Lazard.

$833

$721

$1,657
$1,101

$2,238

$1,034
$200

$400

$212 $281 Diesel


Reciprocating Engine(a)

10

$1,363

$661

$0

Source:

(a)

$2,291

$784

Flow Battery

$1,504

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,596
$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

Levelized Cost ($/MWh)

Lazard estimates.
Indicates battery technology.
Indicates illustrative conventional alternative to energy storage. Not intended to reflect the sole conventional alternative (or source of value from replacing such alternatives). The lowest cost conventional
alternative for a particular use case may not be the lowest cost conventional alternative for another use case.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of Storage ComponentsLow End


While each use case requires different operating parameters and each technology optimizes into these parameters differently according to
its relative strengths and challenges, a key factor regarding the long-term competitiveness of energy storage across all use case and
technology combinations is the ability of technological development and increased production volumes to materially lower the capital
costs of certain energy storage technologies, and their levelized cost of energy, over time
Compressed Air
Flow Battery
TRANSMISSION
SYSTEM

Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion

$79

$15

$88

$166

$13

$98

PEAKER
REPLACEMENT

Flow Battery

Sodium
Zinc
FREQUENCY
REGULATION

DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES

$132

$11

$14

$106

$70

$13

$38

$75

$31

$92

$23

$166

$58

$20

$75

$23
$50

$253

$229

$134

$0

$39
$18

$74

Capital

$200

$48

$516

$400
$37

$426

$285
$77

$32

$70

$38
$80

$43

$227

$65

$45

$217

$365

$288

$36

$264

$419

$14 $211

$340

Flow Battery

Zinc

$66
$321

$20 $276

$261

Sodium

$29

$17 $221

$15

Lithium-Ion

Lithium-Ion

$61

$89

$79

$158

$396

$19 $248
$45

$19

Lead-Acid

Lead-Acid

$86

$36

$149

$35

$18 $230

$221

Battery

Zinc

$70

$27

$120

$461

$347

$75

$270

$43

$13 $188

$204

$66

$32

$41

$14

Lithium-Ion

Sodium

PV INTEGRATION

$68

$127

Flywheel
Flow

$290

$61

$245

Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion

$29

$9

Sodium

$24

$50

$225

Pumped Hydro
Zinc

$86

$302

$10 $192

$29
$69

$64

$33
$79

$373
$36

$402

$355
$32

$379

$19 $245

O&M

Charging/ Discharging

$400

Taxes

$600

Levelized Cost ($/MWh)

11
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

Source:

Lazard estimates.
Indicates battery technology.
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LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of Storage ComponentsLow End (contd)


While each use case requires different operating parameters and each technology optimizes into these parameters differently according to
its relative strengths and challenges, a key factor regarding the long-term competitiveness of energy storage across all use case and
technology combinations is the ability of technological development and increased production volumes to materially lower the capital
costs of certain energy storage technologies, and their levelized cost of energy, over time
A notable exception to the general theme of high capital cost components of levelized cost is the island use case, where high absolute
costs of local electricity (e.g., fuel oil, diesel, renewables, etc.) result in materially greater charging costs as a percentage of LCOS
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
MICROGRID

Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc

Flow Battery

Lead-Acid

ISLAND

Lithium-Ion
Sodium
Zinc
Flow Battery

COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL

Lead-Acid

Zinc

COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE

Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Zinc
Lead-Acid

Lithium-Ion

$185

$139

$27

$125

$18

$127

$11

$159

$27 $369
$27 $411

$17 $319
$19 $593

$437
$47

$213

$29

$215

$36

$182

$333
$31 $581
$381

$121

$34 $349

$341
$210

$47
$17

$264

$93

$98

$92

$50

$105

$39 $444

$26 $310
$613

$87

$601

$64

$390

$50

$358

$150

$104

Copyright 2015 Lazard.

$86
$75

$721
$164

$132
$400

$600

O&M

$928

$784

$146

$637
$200

$99

$974

$661

$672

Lazard estimates.
Indicates battery technology.

$70

$115

$140

$130

$184

Capital
Source:

$159

$88

$504

$0

12

$529

$31 $351

$36
$17

$30 $663

$19 $523

$356
$12

$40 $700

$308

$16

$169

$30 $433

$172

$280

$132

$22 $429

$149

Flow Battery

RESIDENTIAL

$23

Sodium

$189
$37

$181

$40

$216

Lithium-Ion

Flow Battery

$178

$152
$800

Charging

$118
$113
$1,000

$1,101

$1,034
$1,200

Taxes

Levelized Cost ($/MWh)


No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of Storage ComponentsHigh End

While each use case requires different operating parameters and each technology optimizes into these parameters differently according to
its relative strengths and challenges, a key factor regarding the long-term competitiveness of energy storage across all use case and
technology combinations is the ability of technological development and increased production volumes to materially lower the capital
costs of certain energy storage technologies, and their levelized cost of energy, over time
Compressed Air
Flow Battery
TRANSMISSION
SYSTEM

Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion

$79 $15$88 $10 $192


$576

Sodium

Zinc

Flow Battery

Lead-Acid

Lithium-Ion

Sodium

$545

DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES

$220

$125
$137

$479

$44 $62 $73

Sodium

$91

$97

$927
$66

$127

$108

$74

$90

$595

$93

$948

$86

$98

$989

$136

$97

$96

$923

$1,181
$580

$283

$55 $66 $87

$132

$655

$109

$731
$497
$194

$0

$85
$160

$49 $66 $75


$674

$159

$1,692

$79

$112

$1,129

$53 $84 $36 $426

$69

$789

$806
$253

$1,247

$28 $79$20 $275

Sodium
Zinc

$1,079

$41 $78 $28 $347

Lithium-Ion

Lithium-Ion

$1,429

$658

$673
$200
$149

$108

$189

$716

$74

$865

Lead-Acid

Lead-Acid

$147

$46 $79 $31 $376


$602

Zinc

PV INTEGRATION

$66

$739

$773

Lithium-Ion

Flow Battery

$892
$219

$50 $62 $82

Flywheel
Flow Battery

$93

$145 $42 $68$19 $274

Zinc
FREQUENCY
REGULATION

$91

$997

Pumped Hydro

PEAKER
REPLACEMENT

$132

$102
$69

$950
$108

$1,068

$686
$110

$78

$94

$957

$40 $83 $28 $345

$200

$400

$600

Capital

$800

O&M

$1,000

$1,200

Charging/ Discharging

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

Taxes

Levelized Cost ($/MWh)

13
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

Source:

Lazard estimates.
Indicates battery technology.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of Storage ComponentsHigh End (contd)

While each use case requires different operating parameters and each technology optimizes into these parameters differently according to
its relative strengths and challenges, a key factor regarding the long-term competitiveness of energy storage across all use case and
technology combinations is the ability of technological development and increased production volumes to materially lower the capital
costs of certain energy storage technologies, and their levelized cost of energy, over time
A notable exception to the general theme of high capital cost components of levelized cost is the island use case, where high absolute
costs of local electricity (e.g., fuel oil, diesel, renewables) result in materially greater charging costs as a percentage of LCOS
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
MICROGRID

$606

$595

Lithium-Ion

$336

Sodium
Zinc

ISLAND

Lithium-Ion

Sodium

Zinc

Flow
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL

Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion

Sodium
Zinc

$65

$624
$450

Lithium-Ion

Zinc

$45

RESIDENTIAL

Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion

$206

$80 $835
$406

$313

$44

$397

Copyright 2015 Lazard.

$94

$129

$1,533

$1,259

$30 $677
$100 $112

$128

$1,083

$1,082
$618

$184
$45 $87 $88

$772
$261

$1,231

$335

$377

$92

$153

$1,511

$838

$106 $103 $110

$1,092

$43 $110$39 $452


$1,010

$141

$170

$183

$1,504

$1,632

$278

$991
$497

$87 $132

$83

$168

$152

$1,111

$146

$225

$175

$600

Lazard estimates.
Indicates battery technology.

$2,291

$1,657
$305

$1,107
$400

$240

$1,363

$1,532

$200

$140

$85 $833

$154
$800

$1,000

Capital
Source:

$97

$62 $870

$742

$0

14

$946

$110

Flow Battery

$1,046

$193

$677

Lead-Acid

$171
$104

Flow Battery
COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE

$93

$876

$151

$97

$178 $37 $177 $24 $416

Battery

$206

$31 $143 $52 $562

Flow Battery
Lead-Acid

$107

$520

$138

$1,200

O&M

$157
$1,400

Charging

$178

$164

$236

$2,238

$1,596
$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

Taxes

Levelized Cost ($/MWh)


No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Capital Cost Comparison


While capital costs of certain energy storage technology and use case combinations are currently high relative to selected conventional
alternatives and, in some cases, more established energy storage technologies (e.g., pumped hydro, compressed air, etc.), capital costs
must be considered along with a number of other factors that impact the levelized cost of energy storage (e.g., energy density, cycling
capability, etc.)
Compressed Air
Flow Battery
TRANSMISSION
SYSTEM

Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion

$171

$324

Zinc

$213

$449

(a)

Flow Battery
PEAKER
REPLACEMENT

Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion

Sodium

Zinc
FREQUENCY
REGULATION

Lithium-Ion
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Sodium

$414
$1,182
$576

$1,960

$446

$1,098

$472

(a)

$1,391

$258

$437
$1,200

$307
$627

$304

$477
$1,387

$682

$2,072

$622

$1,425

$611

(a)

$0

(a)

$1,434
$662

Lithium-Ion

Source:
Note:

$1,145

$483

(a)

Lead-Acid

$2,542

$492

$1,720

$1,003

Zinc

$3,000+

$1,800

Flow Battery

Sodium

15

$234

Flywheel

Zinc

PV INTEGRATION

$1,367

$297

Flow Battery
DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES

$1,075

$313

$1,937

$422

Pumped Hydro
Sodium

$970
$553

$359

$1,751

$532
$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Capital Cost ($/kWh)

Lazard estimates.
Capital cost information presented on this page as the sum of AC and DC capital costs per kWh of usable energy. Figures as presented on this page exclude assumed EPC and administrative costs
(assumed to be 15% of AC and DC capital costs).
Indicates battery technology.
Zinc technologies are not currently widely commercially deployed. Capital costs are likely lower than other energy storage technologies due to survey participants willingness to incorporate possible future
capital cost decreases into current quotes/estimates.

Copyright 2015 Lazard.


No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Capital Cost Comparison (contd)


While capital costs of certain energy storage technology and use case combinations are currently high relative to selected conventional
alternatives and, in some cases, more established energy storage technologies (e.g., pumped hydro, compressed air, etc.), capital costs
must be considered along with a number of other factors that impact the levelized cost of energy storage (e.g., energy density, cycling
capability, etc.)
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
MICROGRID

$659
$650

(a)

Battery

Lithium-Ion

$476

Sodium

$466

$611

(a)

Flow Battery
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL

Lithium-Ion

Sodium

Zinc

COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE

Flow Battery
Lead-Acid

Lithium-Ion

Zinc
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid

Lithium-Ion

RESIDENTIAL

(a)

16

$1,418

$288

$461
$1,081
$2,021

$386

$1,149

$487
$309

$1,438
$481
$649

$1,060
$764

$2,148

$634
$482

$1,286
$625

$500

$1,604
$1,004

$2,388

$946
$0

Source:
Note:

$1,128

$631

(a)

$2,001

$311

(a)

$784
$1,061

$1,601

$291

Lead-Acid

Lead-Acid

$2,184
$1,312

$540

Zinc

$2,400

$934

Sodium
Zinc

ISLAND

$859

Lithium-Ion

Flow

$500

$1,700
$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Capital Cost ($/kWh)

Lazard estimates.
Capital cost information presented on this page as the sum of AC and DC capital costs per kWh of usable energy. Figures as presented on this page exclude assumed EPC and administrative costs
(assumed to be 15% of AC and DC capital costs).
Indicates battery technology.
Zinc technologies are not currently widely commercially deployed. Capital costs are likely lower than other energy storage technologies due to survey participants willingness to incorporate possible
future capital cost decreases into current quotes/estimates.

Copyright 2015 Lazard.


No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Industry Estimated Capital Cost Outlook


Survey results indicate that Industry participants expect significant capital cost declines for the selected energy storage technologies over
the next five years, driven primarily by increased manufacturing scale and design/engineering improvements

Lead-Acid

Lithium-Ion

SLOW

MEDIAN

FAST

CAGR

(3%)

(9%)

(16%)

Improved manufacturing and design

5-YEAR

(14%)

(38%)

(58%)

Integration time for manufacturing


Reduction in required high cost materials
Improvement in control and response time
Improvements in operation sustainability (e.g., ability

1,000
500

LIKELY DRIVERS

5,300

CAGR

(1%)

(2%)

(12%)

5-YEAR

(5%)

(10%)

(47%)

CAGR

(1%)

(5%)

(16%)

5-YEAR

(5%)

(24%)

(58%)

CAGR

(2%)

(12%)

(13%)

5-YEAR

(10%)

(47%)

(50%)

300
2,150
1,150
150
1,150
650
150

450

Zinc

Capital Cost ($/kWh)

Flywheel(a)

Flow Battery

PROJECTED CAPIT AL COST DECREA S E S

350

CAGR

0%

(1%)

(7%)

250

5-YEAR

0%

(5%)

(30%)

Reduction in required high cost materials and scale

to remove heat, higher efficiency motor/generator,


etc.)
Engineering/design improvements (e.g., additives to

increase usable energy and capability envelope)


Reduction in lead requirement

Increased manufacturing scale (e.g., Gigafactory)


Reduction in required high cost materials
Improvements in battery chemistry/design
Cost reduction depends on manufacturing at scale
Design improvement to reduce high cost sub-

components
Chemistry improvements will increase lifespan and

range of operation

150

2016

2017

2018
Source:
Note:

17
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

(a)
(b)

2019

2020

Lazard estimates.
Capital cost information presented on this page represents DC capital costs per kWh of usable energy, unless otherwise indicated.
Capital costs represent total capital costs, excluding EPC and administrative capital costs.
Expected capital cost declines are somewhat muted for Zinc, likely due to zinc manufacturers/developers building expected cost declines into current quotes and the absence of meaningful market
validators to such quotes.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Impact AnalysisCapital Cost Decline on Levelized Cost of Storage


Assuming that the Energy Storage Industrys capital cost decline expectations materialize, levelized costs of storage could decrease
materially for some use case and technology combinations(a); importantly, expected decreases in the levelized cost of storage are functions
of the magnitude of capital cost decreases expected, as well as the relative weight of DC capital costs vs. balance of system and other costs

TRANSMISSION
SYSTEM

Flow Battery
Battery
Flow
Lead-Acid
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion

$217

$220
$230
$222
$248
$196

Zinc
Zinc

PEAKER
REPLACEMENT

FREQUENCY
REGULATION

DISTRIBUTION
SERVICES

PV
INTEGRATION

$290

Flow Battery
Battery
Flow
Lead-Acid
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion

$369
$347

$340
$321

$461

Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion
Flow Battery
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
Lead-Ion
Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion
Zinc
Zinc
Flow
Battery
Flow Battery
Lead-Acid
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Ion
Lithium-Ion
Zinc
Zinc
$0

$200
$165 $218 Gas

$400
Peaker(c)

$927

$619

$419

$1,247

$970

$658

$898

$989

$923

$624

$1,692

$1,316

$789

$950

$642

$1,068

$842

$686

$600

$1,429

$1,104

$739

$427
$376
$362

$211
$389
$221
$347
$215
$335
$276
$257
$211
$275
$173
$207
$288
$227
$516
$418
$400
$260
$467
$285
$426
$276
$411
$373
$282
$402
$335
$355
$243
$418
$245
$345
$239
$334

Zinc
Zinc
Flywheel(b)
Flywheel

$892

$593

$800

$1,000

Five-year LCOS with Cost Declines

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

Current LCOS

Levelized Cost ($/MWh)


Source:
(a)
(b)
(c)

18

Lazard estimates.
Assumes median five-year expected DC capital cost declines only, unless otherwise indicated.
Assumes median five-year expected total capital cost declines.
Indicates illustrative conventional alternative to energy storage. Not intended to reflect the sole conventional alternative (or source of value from replacing such alternatives).

Copyright 2015 Lazard.


No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Impact AnalysisCapital Cost Decline on Levelized Cost of Storage (contd)


Assuming that the Energy Storage Industrys capital cost decline expectations materialize, levelized costs of storage could decrease
materially for some technology and use case combinations(a); importantly, expected decreases in the levelized cost of storage are functions
of the magnitude of capital cost decreases expected, as well as the relative weight of DC capital costs vs. balance of system and other costs
Flow Battery
Battery
Flow

$429
$1,046
$364
$751
$433
$946
$380
$770
$369
$562
$291
$394
$319
$416
$314
$408
$593
$1,231
$541
$922
$700
$1,533
$617
$1,250
$581
$870
$462
$618
$523
$677
$515
$664
$349
$1,083
$280
$731
$529
$1,511
$436
$1,182
$351
$838
$252
$507
$310
$452
$302
$438
$974
$1,504
$770
$1,101
$928
$805
$784
$1,363
$605
$911
$661
$833
$648
$812
$721
$1,657
$712
$1,254
$1,101
$992
$1,034
$1,596
$846
$1,135

Lead
Lead
MICROGRID

Lithium
Lithium
Zinc
Zinc
Flow Battery
Battery
Flow
Lead
Lead

ISLAND

Lithium
Lithium
Zinc
Zinc
Flow Battery
Battery
Flow

COMMERCIAL &
INDUSTRIAL

Lead
Lead
Lithium
Lithium
Zinc
Zinc
Flow Battery
Battery
Flow

COMMERCIAL
APPLIANCE

Lead
Lead
Lithium
Lithium
Zinc
Zinc
Flow Battery
Battery
Flow

RESIDENTIAL

Lead
Lead
Lithium
Lithium
$0

$200

$400

$212 $281 Diesel


Reciprocating Engine

19

Source:
(a)
(b)
Copyright 2015 Lazard. (c)

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Five-year LCOS with Capital Cost Declines

$1,600

$1,800

$2,291

$1,844

$2,238

$1,855

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

Current LCOS

Levelized Cost ($/MWh)

Lazard estimates.
Assumes median five-year expected DC capital cost declines only, unless otherwise indicated.
Assumes median five-year expected total capital cost declines.
Indicates illustrative conventional alternative to energy storage. Not intended to reflect the sole conventional alternative (or source of value from replacing such alternatives).
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of StorageKey Assumptions


Transmission
Units
Power Rating

Pumped HS

Zinc

CAES

Flow Battery

Lithium

Lead

Sodium

MW

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Duration

Hours

Usable Energy

MWh

800

800

800

800

800

800

800

800

800

800

800

800

800

800

100% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Day


Operating Days/Year

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Project Life

Years

20

Memo: Annual Used Energy

MWh

240,000

Memo: Project Used Energy

MWh

4,800,000 4,800,000

Initial Capital CostDC

$/kWh

--

$211

$390

--

$300

$946

$399

$1,051

$529

$1,913

$425

$1,344

Initial Capital CostAC

$/kWh

--

$24

$24

--

$24

$24

$24

$24

$24

$24

$24

$24

Initial Other Owners Costs

$/kWh

$32

$47

$35

$62

$26

$26

$49

$145

$63

$161

$83

$291

$67

$205

Total Initial Installed Cost

$/kWh

$244

$359

$270

$476

$197

$197

$372

$1,115

$486

$1,236

$636

$2,227

$516

$1,573

Replacement Capital CostDC

$/kWh

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$317

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$0

$0

$130

$202

$0

$0

$105

$253

$209

$304

$333

$686

$269

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$222

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$0

$0

$16

$16

$0

$0

$16

$16

$16

$16

$16

$16

$16

$16

Replacement Capital CostAC

240,000

240,000

240,000

4,800,000 4,800,000

240,000

240,000

4,800,000 4,800,000

240,000

240,000

4,800,000 4,800,000

240,000

240,000

4,800,000 4,800,000

240,000

240,000

4,800,000 4,800,000

240,000

240,000

4,800,000 4,800,000

$0

$1,033

$/kWh

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$/kWh

$2

$11

$4

$12

$4

$4

$3

$33

$7

$13

$13

$55

$10

$31

1.0%

3.0%

1.3%

2.5%

2.0%

2.0%

0.9%

3.0%

1.5%

1.0%

2.0%

2.5%

2.0%

2.0%

Investment Tax Credit

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Production Tax Credit

$/MWh

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

Charging Cost

$/MWh

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

Charging Cost Escalator

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

Efficiency

82%

81%

80%

72%

75%

75%

65%

63%

93%

91%

86%

86%

75%

76%

$/MWh

$188

$274

$230

$376

$192

$192

$290

$892

$347

$739

$461

$1,429

$396

$1,079

O&M Cost
O&M % of Capex

Levelized Cost of Storage

Source: Lazard estimates.

20
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of StorageKey Assumptions (contd)


Peaker Replacement
Units
Power Rating

MW

Zinc
25

Lithium
25

25

Frequency Regulation

Flow Battery
25

25

25

Lead
25

Sodium
25

25

25

Duration

Hours

Usable Energy

MWh

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Day


Operating Days/Year

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Project Life

Years

20

Memo: Annual Used Energy

MWh

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

Memo: Project Used Energy

MWh

700,000

700,000

700,000

700,000

700,000

700,000

700,000

700,000

700,000

700,000

Initial Capital CostDC

$/kWh

$211

$390

$399

$1,051

$250

$1,135

$529

$1,913

$425

$1,344

Initial Capital CostAC

$/kWh

$47

$47

$47

$47

$47

$47

$47

$47

$47

$47

Initial Other Owners Costs

$/kWh

$39

$66

$67

$165

$45

$177

$86

$294

$71

$209

Total Initial Installed Cost

$/kWh

$297

$503

$513

$1,263

$342

$1,360

$663

$2,255

$543

$1,600

Replacement Capital CostDC

$/kWh

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$380

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$130

$202

$209

$304

$88

$304

$333

$686

$269

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$266

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$32

$32

$32

$32

$32

$32

$32

$32

$32

$32

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

Replacement Capital CostAC

O&M Cost

$0

$1,033

$/kWh

$/kWh

$4

$12

$8

$13

$3

$40

$13

$56

$11

$32

1.4%

2.4%

1.5%

1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

2.0%

2.5%

2.0%

2.0%

Investment Tax Credit

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Production Tax Credit

$/MWh

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

Charging Cost

$/MWh

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

$50

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

80%

72%

93%

91%

65%

63%

86%

86%

75%

76%

$/MWh

$221

$347

$321

$658

$248

$927

$419

$1,247

$365

$948

O&M % of Capex

Charging Cost Escalator


Efficiency
Levelized Cost of Storage

Source: Lazard estimates.

21
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of StorageKey Assumptions (contd)


Frequency Regulation
Units
Power Rating

Lithium

Distribution Services

Flywheel

MW

10

10

10

10

Duration

Hours

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Usable Energy

MWh

100% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Day


Operating Days/Year

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

350

350

350

350

Project Life

Years

20

20

20

20

Memo: Annual Used Energy

MWh

8,400

8,400

8,400

8,400

Memo: Project Used Energy

MWh

168,000

168,000

Initial Capital CostDC

$/kWh

$780

$1,300

Initial Capital CostAC

$/kWh

$420

$420

Initial Other Owners Costs

$/kWh

$180

$258

Total Initial Installed Cost

$/kWh

$1,380

Replacement Capital CostDC

$/kWh

$1,978

168,000

168,000
---

$270

$1,296

$2,070

$9,933

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$302

$302

$0

$0

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$/kWh

$19

$40

$27

$129

O&M % of Capex

1.4%

2.0%

1.3%

1.3%

Investment Tax Credit

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Production Tax Credit

$/MWh

$0

$0

$0

$0

Charging Cost

$/MWh

$66

$66

$66

$66

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

93%

93%

82%

85%

$/MWh

$211

$275

$276

$989

Replacement Capital CostAC

O&M Cost

Charging Cost Escalator


Efficiency
Levelized Cost of Storage

$/kWh

Source: Lazard estimates.

22
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of StorageKey Assumptions (contd)


Distribution Services
Units
Power Rating

MW

Zinc
4

Flow Battery
4

Lithium
4

Lead
4

Sodium
4

Duration

Hours

Usable Energy

MWh

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

100% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Day

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Operating Days/Year

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

Project Life

Years

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Memo: Annual Used Energy

MWh

4,800

4,800

4,800

4,800

4,800

4,800

4,800

4,800

4,800

4,800

Memo: Project Used Energy

MWh

96,000

96,000

96,000

96,000

Initial Capital CostDC

$/kWh

$247

$420

$250

Initial Capital CostAC

$/kWh

$57

$57

$57

Initial Other Owners Costs

$/kWh

$46

$72

$46

Total Initial Installed Cost

$/kWh

$350

$549

$353

$1,154

Replacement Capital CostDC

$/kWh

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$317

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$153

$202

$79

$253

$209

$304

$333

$0

$269

$0

$0

$0

$222

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$38

$38

$38

$38

$38

$38

$38

$38

$38

$38

After Year 15
Replacement Capital CostAC

96,000

96,000

96,000

96,000

96,000

96,000

$946

$435

$1,088

$570

$2,485

$425

$1,377

$57

$57

$57

$57

$57

$57

$57

$150

$74

$172

$94

$381

$72

$215

$566

$1,316

$721

$2,924

$555

$1,649

$0

$1,033
$0

$/kWh

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$/kWh

$5

$14

$4

$34

$9

$14

$15

$73

$11

$33

O&M % of Capex

1.5%

2.5%

1.1%

3.0%

1.6%

1.1%

2.0%

2.5%

2.0%

2.0%

Investment Tax Credit

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Production Tax Credit

$/MWh

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

Charging Cost

$/MWh

$53

$53

$53

$53

$53

$53

$53

$53

$53

$53

Charging Cost Escalator

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

Efficiency

80%

72%

65%

63%

93%

91%

86%

86%

75%

76%

$/MWh

$285

$426

$288

$923

$400

$789

$516

$1,692

$426

$1,129

O&M Cost

Levelized Cost of Storage

Source: Lazard estimates.

23
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of StorageKey Assumptions (contd)


PV Integration
Units
Power Rating

Zinc

Flow Battery

Lithium

Lead

Sodium

MW

Duration

Hours

Usable Energy

MWh

100% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Day

1.25

1.25

1.25

1.25

1.25

1.25

1.25

1.25

1.25

1.25

Operating Days/Year

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
1,750

Project Life

Years

Memo: Annual Used Energy

MWh

1,750

1,750

1,750

1,750

1,750

1,750

1,750

1,750

1,750

Memo: Project Used Energy

MWh

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

Initial Capital CostDC

$/kWh

$247

$420

$550

$1,275

$510

$1,313

$570

$1,960

$499

$1,639

Initial Capital CostAC

$/kWh

$112

$112

$112

$112

$112

$112

$112

$112

$112

$112

Initial Other Owners Costs

$/kWh

$54

$80

$99

$208

$93

$214

$102

$311

$92

$263

Total Initial Installed Cost

$/kWh

$413

$612

$761

$1,595

$715

$1,638

$784

$2,383

$702

$2,014

Replacement Capital CostDC

$/kWh

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$788

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$153

$202

$0

$630

$245

$367

$333

$686

$316

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$551

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$75

$75

$75

$75

$75

$75

$75

$75

$75

$75

Replacement Capital CostAC

$0

$1,229

$/kWh

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$/kWh

$7

$15

$19

$40

$12

$18

$16

$59

$14

$41

O&M % of Capex

1.6%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

1.6%

1.1%

2.0%

2.5%

2.1%

2.0%

Investment Tax Credit

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Production Tax Credit

$/MWh

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

Charging Cost

$/MWh

$58

$58

$58

$58

$58

$58

$58

$58

$58

$58

Charging Cost Escalator

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Efficiency

80%

72%

76%

72%

93%

91%

86%

86%

75%

76%

$/MWh

$245

$345

$373

$950

$355

$686

$402

$1,068

$379

$957

O&M Cost

Levelized Cost of Storage

Source: Lazard estimates.

24
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of StorageKey Assumptions (contd)


Microgrid
Units
Power Rating

Zinc

Lithium

Flow Battery

Lead

Sodium

MW

Duration

Hours

Usable Energy

MWh

100% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Day

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Operating Days/Year

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
1,400

Project Life

Years

Memo: Annual Used Energy

MWh

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,400

Memo: Project Used Energy

MWh

28,000

28,000

28,000

28,000

28,000

28,000

28,000

28,000

28,000

28,000

Initial Capital CostDC

$/kWh

$315

$560

$435

$1,088

$635

$2,176

$710

$1,960

$425

$1,377

Initial Capital CostAC

$/kWh

$224

$224

$224

$224

$224

$224

$224

$224

$224

$224

Initial Other Owners Costs

$/kWh

$81

$118

$99

$197

$129

$360

$140

$328

$240

Total Initial Installed Cost

$/kWh

$620

$902

$758

$1,508

$988

$2,760

Replacement Capital CostDC

$/kWh

After Year 5

$0

$0

$274

$442

$0

$728

After Year 10

$195

$269

$209

$304

$0

After Year 15

$0

$0

$152

$213

$0

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$151

$151

$151

$151

Replacement Capital CostAC

$97

$2,512

$747

$1,841

$0

$980

$284

$1,101

$582

$415

$686

$269

$1,033

$510

$0

$588

$254

$1,033

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$151

$151

$151

$151

$151

$151

$1,074

$/kWh

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$/kWh

$11

$22

$13

$18

$24

$81

$22

$62

$16

$38

O&M % of Capex

1.7%

2.4%

1.8%

1.2%

2.4%

2.9%

2.1%

2.5%

2.1%

2.0%

Investment Tax Credit

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Production Tax Credit

$/MWh

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

Charging Cost

$/MWh

$108

$108

$108

$108

$108

$108

$108

$108

$108

$108

Charging Cost Escalator

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

Efficiency

80%

72%

93%

91%

67%

63%

86%

86%

75%

76%

$/MWh

$319

$416

$369

$562

$429

$1,046

$433

$946

$411

$835

O&M Cost

Levelized Cost of Storage

Source: Lazard estimates.

25
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of StorageKey Assumptions (contd)


Island
Units
Power Rating

Zinc

Lithium

Co

Flow Battery

Sodium

Lead

MW

Duration

Hours

Usable Energy

MWh

100% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Day


Operating Days/Year

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
2,100

Project Life

Years

Memo: Annual Used Energy

MWh

2,100

2,100

2,100

2,100

2,100

2,100

2,100

2,100

2,100

Memo: Project Used Energy

MWh

42,000

42,000

42,000

42,000

42,000

42,000

42,000

42,000

42,000

42,000

Initial Capital CostDC

$/kWh

$247

$420

$435

$1,088

$250

$1,020

$425

$1,377

$570

$1,960

Initial Capital CostAC

$/kWh

$41

$41

$41

$41

$41

$41

$41

$41

$41

$41

Initial Other Owners Costs

$/kWh

$43

$69

$71

$169

$44

$159

$70

$213

$92

$300

Total Initial Installed Cost

$/kWh

$331

$530

$547

$1,298

$335

$1,220

$536

$1,630

$703

$2,301

Replacement Capital CostDC

$/kWh

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$630

$0

After Year 10

$153

$202

$209

$0

$88

$504

$269

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$441

$0

$0

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$27

$27

$27

$27

$27

$27

$27

Replacement Capital CostAC

$0

$0

$0

$333

$686

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$27

$27

$27

$1,033

$/kWh

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$/kWh

$5

$13

$9

$14

$3

$30

$11

$33

$14

$57

O&M % of Capex

1.4%

2.5%

1.6%

1.0%

1.0%

2.5%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.5%

Investment Tax Credit

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Production Tax Credit

$/MWh

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

Charging Cost

$/MWh

$281

$281

$281

$281

$281

$281

$281

$281

$281

$281

Charging Cost Escalator

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Efficiency

80%

72%

93%

91%

65%

72%

75%

76%

86%

86%

$/MWh

$523

$677

$581

$870

$593

$1,231

$663

$1,259

$700

$1,533

O&M Cost

Levelized Cost of Storage

Source: Lazard estimates.

26
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of StorageKey Assumptions (contd)


Commercial & Industrial
Units
Power Rating

Zinc

Lithium

Commercia

Flow Battery

Lead

Sodium

MW

Duration

Hours

Usable Energy

MWh

100% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Day


Operating Days/Year

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10
1,400

Project Life

Years

Memo: Annual Used Energy

MWh

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,400

Memo: Project Used Energy

MWh

14,000

14,000

14,000

14,000

14,000

14,000

14,000

14,000

14,000

14,000

Initial Capital CostDC

$/kWh

$247

$420

$325

$1,088

$250

$1,020

$570

$1,960

$425

$1,377

Initial Capital CostAC

$/kWh

$61

$61

$61

$61

$61

$61

$61

$61

$61

$61

Initial Other Owners Costs

$/kWh

$46

$72

$58

$172

$47

$162

$95

$303

$73

$216

Total Initial Installed Cost

$/kWh

$355

$554

$444

$1,321

$358

$1,244

$726

$2,325

$560

$1,654

Replacement Capital CostDC

$/kWh

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$630

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$0

$0

$0

$0

$84

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$41

$41

$41

$41

$41

$41

$41

$41

$41

$41

Replacement Capital CostAC

$/kWh

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$/kWh

$5

$14

$5

$14

$4

$31

$15

$58

$11

$33

O&M % of Capex

1.5%

2.5%

1.2%

1.1%

1.1%

2.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2.0%

2.0%

Investment Tax Credit

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Production Tax Credit

$/MWh

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

Charging Cost

$/MWh

$70

$70

$70

$70

$70

$70

$70

$70

$70

$70

Charging Cost Escalator

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

Efficiency

80%

72%

85%

91%

65%

72%

86%

86%

75%

76%

$/MWh

$310

$452

$351

$838

$349

$1,083

$529

$1,511

$444

$1,092

O&M Cost

Levelized Cost of Storage

Source: Lazard estimates.

27
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of StorageKey Assumptions (contd)


Commercial Appliance
Units
Power Rating

Zinc

Lithium

Residential

Lead

Flow Battery

MW

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Duration

Hours

Usable Energy

MWh

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

100% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Day


Operating Days/Year

250

250

250

250

250

250

250

250

Project Life

Years

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Memo: Annual Used Energy

MWh

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

500

500

Memo: Project Used Energy

MWh

500

500

500

500

500

500

Initial Capital CostDC

$/kWh

$247

$390

$399

$1,051

$529

$1,913

$414

$825

Initial Capital CostAC

$/kWh

$235

$235

$235

$235

$235

$235

$235

$235

Initial Other Owners Costs

$/kWh

$72

$94

$95

$193

$115

$322

$97

$159

Total Initial Installed Cost

$/kWh

$555

$719

$729

$1,479

$879

$2,471

$746

$1,219

Replacement Capital CostDC

$/kWh

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$276

$525

After Year 10

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$168

$168

$168

$168

$168

$168

$168

$168

After Year 15
Replacement Capital CostAC

$/kWh

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$/kWh

$11

$19

$14

$20

$20

$63

$19

$31

2.0%

2.6%

2.0%

1.3%

2.2%

2.5%

2.6%

2.6%

Investment Tax Credit

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Production Tax Credit

$/MWh

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

Charging Cost

O&M Cost
O&M % of Capex

$/MWh

$108

$108

$108

$108

$108

$108

$108

$108

Charging Cost Escalator

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

Efficiency

80%

72%

93%

91%

86%

86%

77%

72%

$/MWh

$661

$833

$784

$1,363

$928

$2,291

$974

$1,504

Levelized Cost of Storage

Lithium

Source: Lazard estimates.

28
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

LAZARD'S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSISVERSION 1.0

Levelized Cost of StorageKey Assumptions (contd)


Residential
Units
Power Rating

Lithium

Lead

Flow Battery

MW

0.005

0.005

0.005

0.005

0.005

0.005

Duration

Hours

Usable Energy

MWh

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

100% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Day


Operating Days/Year

300

300

300

300

300

300

Project Life

Years

10

10

10

10

10

10

Memo: Annual Used Energy

MWh

30

30

30

30

Memo: Project Used Energy

MWh

30

30

Initial Capital CostDC

$/kWh

$471

$1,225

$529

$1,913

$25

$1,129

Initial Capital CostAC

$/kWh

$475

$475

$475

$475

$475

$475

Initial Other Owners Costs

$/kWh

$142

$255

$151

$358

$75

$241

Total Initial Installed Cost

$/kWh

$1,088

$575

$1,845

Replacement Capital CostDC

$/kWh

$1,955

$1,155

$2,747

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$381

After Year 10

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 5

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 10

$315

$315

$315

$315

$315

$0

After Year 15

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

After Year 15
Replacement Capital CostAC

O&M Cost

$/kWh

$/kWh

$35

$41

$39

$82

$28

$39

3.3%

2.1%

3.4%

3.0%

4.9%

2.1%

Investment Tax Credit

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Production Tax Credit

$/MWh

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

Charging Cost

$/MWh

$125

$125

$125

$125

$125

$125

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

92%

89%

86%

86%

76%

63%

$/MWh

$1,034

$721

$1,657

O&M % of Capex

Charging Cost Escalator


Efficiency
Levelized Cost of Storage

$1,596

$1,101

$2,238

Source: Lazard estimates.

29
Copyright 2015 Lazard.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.

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